Trade report of 17-7The Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state was favorable. At least the prediction was -3.5 but it ended up being 1.1. Still, this was disappointing because the previous period it was 6.6. So the index has dropped significantly. And you noticed that immediately in the Dollar pairs. The Dollar itself remained in free fall today. But the risk of drastic interest rate adjustments has decreased. Today's actions:
#NZDUSD : our rating system gives the following value; +5, or a buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's take a look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that the NZD has a long percentage of 47.75%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 70.38%. This category gets a -1, as institutional traders prefer the USD.
If we look at NZDUSD, we see that retailers are 34% long and 66% short. Currently, the NZDUSD gets a value of +1 in this category.
If we look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise this month.
Trend measurement is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8 and 21 exponential moving average. The more "aligned" they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at the basics. GDP growth in favour of the USD, inflation in favour of the NZD, unemployment in favour of the NZD and interest rates in favour of the NZD. We have therefore placed a buy at 0.64020.
#CADCHF : a next sell will be put in line with the expected inflation figures from Canada. 0.64770
Tradingforex
AUD/JPY Long, EUR/USD Short, WHEAT/USD Short and USD/CAD LongAUD/JPY long
• If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD Short
• If price impulses down below our rayline, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
WHEAT/USD Short
• If price pushes up above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USD/CAD Long
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/AUD Short, EUR/AUD Long and NZD/CAD ShortGBP/AUD Short
• If price corrects and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/AUD Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/CAD Short
• If price impulses down, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
SOYBN/USD Long and AUD/JPY LongSOYBN/USD Long
• If price completes its middle section and it then impulses down below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/JPY Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Trade Recap on AUD/NZD and Forecast on NZD/CADNZD/CAD Short
• If price pushes up above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
SOYBN/USD LongSOYBN/USD Long
• If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/USD Short, WHEAT/USD, GBP/AUD Short, AUD/NZD ShortAUD/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
WHEAT/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break on either the one hour or the fifteen minute chart, or after a one hour rejection from it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/AUD Short
• If price impulses down, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/NZD Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/CAD Short, NZD/JPY Short and CAD/CHF LongAUD/CAD Short
• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/JPY Short
• If price impulses down below our most recent corrective structure, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
CAD/CHF long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/USD Short and AUD/NZD ShortAUD/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/NZD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
SOYBN/USD Long and EUR/AUD LongSOYBN/USD Long
• If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/AUD Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/USD ShortAUD/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/JPY Short, USD/JPY Short and AUD/USDNZD/JPY Short
• If price impulses down, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USD/JPY Short
• If price pushes up above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/USD Short
• If price impulses down below our area of value, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/USD Short
• If price impulses down below our area of value, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/JPY Short, USD/CAD Long, USD/JPY Short and AUD/USD ShortNZD/JPY Short
• If price impulses down below our area of value and the lower ascending trend line of our recent running channel, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USD/CAD Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower descending trend line of our most recent piece of structure, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USD/JPY Short
• If price pushes up above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
AUD/USD Short
• If price impulses down below our area of value, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USD/JPY PRICE ACTION, daily timeframe in depthblue boxes are liquidity voids, Fair value gaps, body gaps ect. whatever you want to call them (ITL= intermediate term low) (ITH=intermediate term high) (LTL= long term low) (LTH=longterm high).....i would still analyze DXY chart and look at Bond yields... i wouldnt short until the intermediate term structure on the daily actually shifted bearish....once it did i would look to intraday time frames in much of the same manner. (currently bullish yet anticipating bearishness in the near future)
CAD/CHF LongCAD/CHF Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short and CAD/CHF LongGBP/USD Short
• If price impulses down, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
CAD/CHF Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/JPY Short, NZD/USD Short, GBP/USD Short and USD/JPY LongGBP/JPY Short
• If price impulses down below our most recent low, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/USD Short
• If price impulses down, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/USD Short
• If price impulses down below our most recent low, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
USD/JPY Long
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD Short, NZD/USD Short and GBP/JPY ShortEUR/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/USD Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above the upper trend line of our most recent piece of structure, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/JPY Short
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/JPY Short• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
GBP/JPY ShortFrom tomorrow morning onwards I'll be bringing you a daily tutorial video each morning, where I explain my entire thought process behind each of the positions that I forecast instead of these evening forecasts.
I used to do this about a year and a half ago, but at the time my other commitments made it very difficult for me to do so. However I'm now doing well financially, which has meant that I no longer have to work quite as many hours, which in turn means that I'm now able to start making videos again and with four years experience as a trade under my belt I'm confident that I'll be able to bring you a ton of value.
GBP/CAD ShortPositive Confluence Factors... (13)
1. LTF and HTF direction in alignment?
2. At edge of HTF structure (in green zone)?
3. HTF candlestick confirmation? ✅
4. Trade setup visible on multiple time frames? ✅
5. Break out of structure and a break back in present? ✅
6. Near miss present (below price if looking to get short, or above price if looking to get long)?
7. Reliable looking sequence of flags present (if looking for further continuation)? ✅
8. Correction/s I'm looking to get long or short within and/or on the break of proportionate to preceding impulse? ✅
9. M style pattern present? ✅
10. Structural approach to area of value? ✅
11. Fairly flat structure present? ✅
12. Expanding pattern present?
13. Equal spacing present?
14. Clearly identifiable middle section present? ✅
15. Head and shoulders pattern present? ✅
16. Decent R:R available? ✅
17. No hook point sat just beyond stop loss? ✅
18. Protection available for your stop loss? ✅
Negative Confluence Factors... (1)
1. Counter to HTF trend? ❌
2. Not at edge of HTF structure (in red zone)?
3. Trade setup only visible on one time frame?
4. Price only wicked to area of value on multiple time frames?
5. Near miss present (above price if looking to get short, or below price if looking to get long)?
6. Unreliable looking sequence of flags present (if looking for further continuation)?
7. Correction/s I'm looking to get long or short within and/or on the break of disproportionate to preceding impulse?
8. Squeeze present (structure not parallel or expanding)?
9. Fairly steep structure present?
10. Very unequal spacing present?
11. No clearly identifiable middle section present?
12. Excessively voluminous middle section present?
13. Limited R:R available?
14. Hook point sat just beyond stop loss?
15. Entry around swap hours?
16. Entry directly before major news announcement?