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How Much BTC Do You Need to Create Generational Wealth?Hi Tradingviewers, in this article I am going to break down this question into smaller items and try to give a concrete answer to the question: “How Much BTC Do You Need to Create Generational Wealth?” First, we’ll have to define what ‘wealth’ means. Then we need to define how we look at the ‘generational’ part. Lastly, we also need to take into consideration long term outlooks on Bitcoin. Let’s try and put some actual numbers on this and see how much BTC you would actually need. I’ve been on Twitter a lot lately (putting some more effort into my account!) and got inspired to answer this question as this was a very common topic on Twitter. The interesting thing is that I saw a lot of people talking about this, but nobody actually made an effort to go through the math. Without further ado, let’s dig into the numbers. First let’s look into some options to define wealth. Using data from the World Inequality Database and Statistics Canada), it takes about $488,000 to be considered part of the top 1% in the U.S in 2019. Let’s assume that this applies to the number needed in a family/household. Let’s make ~$500,000 our first option, I’d say belonging to the top 1% in the US would be a pretty fair definition of wealth. If we look further than the US, we can also use this same 1% methodology to define wealth on a global scale. In that case you would need at least $744,400 in combined income, investments, and personal assets according to the global wealth report from the Credit Suisse Research Institute. A slightly more ambitious goal compared to our first option but we could define this as ~$750,000. Another option to look at wealth is to look at financial independence . My preferred way to define financial independence is to have enough wealth such that you can completely live off the dividends. A common rule used by the FIRE community (Financial Independence, Retire Early) is the 4% rule. The 4% can be summarised as a safe withdrawal rate that will not lower your total wealth over the long run. Even when there are temporary downturns in the global economy. This assumes you invest all your money in the stock market. The median household income in the US is $61,937 per year. We could consider a passive income of the median household income as wealthy. If we divide $61,937 by 4% from the safe withdrawal rate above we get to a total of $1,548,425. So using this logic you would need roughly ~$1.5M in total assets in order to be considered wealthy. Now, let’s discuss the generational part. Honestly, I was surprised when I found the exact definition: “ generational wealth represents assets passed down from one generation to the next. If you can leave behind a notable inheritance to your descendants, that constitutes generational wealth. These assets can include real estate, stock market investments, a business, or anything else which contains monetary value. I had somehow expected it would be something more ambitious such as that for x generations they would all have to be considered “wealthy too”. Achieving generational wealth would then be relatively easy given method one and two. You would just need to make sure something is left of your $500,000 or $750,000 respectively. Option three even has it implied. The whole idea behind option three is to never actually spend any of your wealth, you’re simply living off the dividends. This leaves us with the most difficult one: how much Bitcoin would you need? The first and most obvious approach is to directly calculate the amount of bitcoin that represents our different definitions of wealth given the current price. If we take a Bitcoin price of $30,000 that would give 16 bitcoin for option 1, 25 bitcoin for option 2 and 50 bitcoin for option 3. Now let’s bring in some of the nuance. First of all if you’re expecting to live off your dividends you cannot have all of your wealth be in bitcoin itself as it doesn’t pay any dividends directly. Normally the wealth would be in the stock market or in real estate. Also, if you assume that the value of bitcoin will keep rising you would obviously need far less bitcoin today to achieve generational wealth later. For example, Bloomberg analysts have predicted a price target of $50,000 for Bitcoin in 2021, implying a $1 trillion market cap for just this cryptocurrency. JP Morgan analysts estimate the price of Bitcoin to grow more aggressively, as they estimate a value of $650,000 by the end of 2022. Let’s be more conservative on the date, but keep an aggressive price target for the sake of the argument here. If we take a $300,000 price target by the end of 2031 how much bitcoin would you need today to achieve generational wealth? This would give us 1.6 bitcoin for option 1 2.5 bitcoin for option 2 and 5 bitcoin for option 3. Specifically for option three it would still mean though that you would have to cash out all your crypto assets and convert them into dividend generating assets instead. Also, with a possibility to see hyperinflation later given that 35% of all dollars in existence have been printed during the last 10 months it is questionable whether thinking of generational sustainable health should even be expressed based on dollar figures to begin with. I wouldn’t know how to express it in any other way, but am really curious to hear if anyone has good alternatives on this point. I am really curious to hear your views on this. I used many assumptions here, how would you have approached this? Are there any flaws you see in my logic? Feel free to comment on anything, and please feel free to absolutely destroy it! I’d love to have the discussion. Just to summarize, based on this you would need today: 16 bitcoin to be considered among the top 1% wealthiest in the US 25 bitcoin to be considered among the top 1% wealthiest in the world 50 bitcoin to achieve generational financial freedom Trading-Guru p.s. You might have seen a few reposts of this article as Tradingview was struggling with a faulty spam detector. The moderators kindly helped blocking and unblocking some posts. Thanks @scheplick!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Trading-Guru
11
Ethereum on the way to $450 - Trade using Psychological LevelsIn this technical analysis I will go into the most important things that are happening to ETH/USD right now from a technical point of view. First of all we see that the RSI is extremely overbought. Meaning that the momentum is insanely high. We've just seen an increase from the $400 to the $430 level in no-time. Often times, this is unsustainable. Hence the *over*bought part. It is logical that the price will retrace. I think a logical moment for that presents itself by means of psychological levels. As a brief summary, psychological levels are all incredibly round numbers, which match perfectly to the levels of support and resistance. You can see human trading behavior at work here, along with human psychology. This is exactly where humans would put their limit orders, or where they will put price alarms. $430 is such a psychological level, and I think when the price reaches this level we will have to be extra careful. It will either cool down and bounce from this level, or it will increase again and we might see a surge to new highs all the way up to $450 in a short time. ETH by itself will probably not have the power to beat the $430 level, but will need an entire momentum from the market to do so. In this analysis I show a price pattern that could happen if the entire market continues its bullish uptrend and the price breaks through $430. I believe that after some struggle it is actually likely that the price will break through the resistance here. Again, first it will need to cool down a little bit, and then the entire market needs to help Ethereum, so it's a bit of a stretch but I believe it's likely that it will happen. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Trading-Guru
9
Triple Repeat Fractal on BTC/USDHere in this analysis I will show you a fractal that I've been looking at on the 1h for BTC/USD. This is a structure that has been forming over the last ~10 days. The price slowly builds up, after which it relatively quickly drops again. This is something I see now on BTC/USD that I recognize from my time trading stocks. It is very common to witness these kind of patterns. It can take a whole year to build up ~15% and then the market can lose it all in 2 weeks. Now that we've seen a relatively large drop again from ~$11,833 to ~$11,100, we might be seeing a similar pattern again. If this pattern gets validated, you should probably hold a long position now until about ~$11,600 and then go short until ~$11,000. Let me know what you think of this analysis, as it's slightly alternative to the ones I usually do. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trading-Guru
10
Monthly Crypto Analysis - Looking back on JuneJune 2020 has come to an end. Every month I analyze what happened with Bitcoin and the altcoin market. Of course the crypto market recovered amazingly fast after the COVID-19 crash. April and May were very strong. How did the crypto market perform in June? In June Bitcoin flattened completely and showed the lowest volatility in quite some time. Bitcoin “went down” 2.73%. Also altcoins did not move much as spectacularly as they usually do. On average altcoins gained 11.78% in USD value. Overall, 59.3% of all altcoins increased in USD value. In short, June can be considered a month of indecision. Will the crypto market continue its upward momentum from April and May? Or is this flat price action the beginning of a reversal to the downside. We will have to wait and see. We know one thing: periods of low volatility are often followed by periods of high volatility, so brace for impact! Now let's look at altcoins. In order to make this comparison as accurate as possible, I take a few things into account. First of all, if you would compare all BTC pairs you would bias the results towards the performance of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin goes down all altcoins look like they went up, but in fact might not have. The problem with USD and USDT pairs is that not all altcoins have one. That's why I used a custom simulation software to buy one equal share of each coin at the beginning of the month, and sell it again at the end of the month and express the monetary gain in my own USD estimate. This gives the most reasonable comparison and can show you which altcoins truly stand out at the moment. Here is a breakdown by altcoin for their June performance Top Gainers 🥳: $ERD +167.48% $TNB +163.19% $ONG +120.44% $LEND +110.03% $REQ +87.73% Biggest Losers 😭: $MCO -19.49% $DATA -22.25% $SNT -23.73% $RCN -23.76% $BAND -26.20% I have been creating monthly overviews for the last two years and publishing it on my blog, but this is the first time publishing it here. I hope you all like it! Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Trading-Guru
16
EOS/BTC Fantastic S&R Scalp Opportunity [Quick Updates]Hey all, here’s another entry on my tradingview series called 'Quick Updates'. Here on EOS we are seeing a nice confirmation of the support zone, after the price has dropped significantly over the last few days. If the price drops a bit further, you could get a great trade in. The more you enter near the support zone, the better your risk reward will be. --- What is The Quick Update Series All About? --- I have started a new tag (quickupdates) where I quickly share great opportunities based on TA for shorter timeframes, such as 4h, 1h, and 15m. It will contain a brief explanation with clear and clean charts in order to keep the velocity up and make sure you get to see the opportunities as fast as possible. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Long
by Trading-Guru
3
EOS Still Has a Long Way To Recover [Great Upside Potential!]Compared to all the other major caps, EOS has recovered the least. Whereas BTC has almost completely recovered and even reached highs of pre-corona levels EOS still is really low and has more than 90% upside potential. Obviously you wouldn't want to go in for a single 90% trade here with huge risk. No, we take the mature approach and try get a few good risk reward positions in and take only the profit we can get based on solid TA all the while we trade positions we can afford to lose. Since EOS is trading in an ascending parallel channel here, we can trade it with a bullish bias. The price is in a linear uptrend, but has just seen a retracement from the middle of the channel. This means we will have a possibility for a very safe and low entry, maximizing our risk reward. I am suggesting a long position here on EOS. Good luck! Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! Recent success stories:
BITFINEX:EOSUSDLong
by Trading-Guru
9
How to Trade Gold, Going Into the Weekend [XAU/USD]Like I explained in my previous ideas, I am still bearish on gold. First we had seen a bearish double top here on gold, but now we get a sudden retracement back up just before the weekend is coming. I keep my bearish bias, but could see a temporary increase in price here to form something like a right should of a H&S pattern. If you weren't shorting gold already, this could be a good moment to wait for a slightly higher price and enter the short again for a good risk reward on your trade. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! Recent success stories:
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trading-Guru
7
ATOM/BTC Multi Timeframe Analysis [Quick Updates]Hey all, here’s another entry on my tradingview series called 'Quick Updates'. We can see that ATOM has reversed its overall trend. We can use this information to establish a positive bias and add a certain upwards probability to each of our following trades. Currently we can see on the lower timeframes that the price is reaching a zone of horizontal support. This is a great opportunity for a long position. --- What is The Quick Update Series All About? --- I have started a new tag (quickupdates) where I quickly share great opportunities based on TA for shorter timeframes, such as 4h, 1h, and 15m. It will contain a brief explanation with clear and clean charts in order to keep the velocity up and make sure you get to see the opportunities as fast as possible. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Long
by Trading-Guru
4
Bitcoin is on the move again!Bitcoin is on the move again! After 2 days of basically zero volatility, BTC suddenly made a massive spike in its ATR. Immediately the price went down to this very important support zone of the psychological level 6600. The first signs show a bullish reversal after hitting the support, with not enough strength from the bears to break through. I will put this idea as bullish with the monetization on the scenario that the support holds. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Long
by Trading-Guru
6
Support and Resistance Trade Setup [Quick Updates]Hey all, here’s another entry on my tradingview series called 'Quick Updates'. In the chart you can find a nice and clean trade set-up based on support and resistance --- What is The Quick Update Series All About? --- I have started a new tag (quickupdates) where I quickly share great opportunities based on TA for shorter timeframes, such as 4h, 1h, and 15m. It will contain a brief explanation with clear and clean charts in order to keep the velocity up and make sure you get to see the opportunities as fast as possible. If you want to learn more about how to place your limit orders including entry, stop-loss and take-profit, check out: Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Long
by Trading-Guru
AUD/CHF Opportunity for Horizontal Scalping [Quick Updates]On AUD/CHF we see a nice opportunity here for a short trade. The price has been nicely between the support and resistance zone. We can leverage this by trading a short position. The price is really close to the resistance now, which gives the best risk-reward for trades using support and resistance. If the price does break through the resistance in the end, the loss is minimized. If the price follows our idea, we maximize the profits. This is a great moment to enter AUDCHF! --- What is The Quick Update Series All About? --- I have started a new tag (quickupdates) where I quickly share great opportunities based on TA for shorter timeframes, such as 4h, 1h, and 15m. It will contain a brief explanation with clear and clean charts in order to keep the velocity up and make sure you get to see the opportunities as fast as possible. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Short
by Trading-Guru
4
BTC USDT is in a Text Book Quality Rising Wedge [In-Depth]There are so many interesting things going on here from a technical analysis perspective. Let's break them down per section. First of all, we cannot miss this beautiful rising wedge. A rising wedge is formed when price consolidates between upward sloping support and resistance lines. The slope of the support line has to be steeper than that of the resistance. This indicates that higher lows are being formed faster than higher highs. This is a bearish pattern, where we expect a high impact negative drop if the price breaks through the bottom support. The price has beautifully stayed within the boundaries so far, validating the rising wedge pattern. The most interesting thing is that the way it's forming is exactly like the text books draw the pattern. If you ever wanted to understand a rising wedge, this is the most classic way of getting one! I drew the textbook example on the chart for your reference. The second point I really want to emphasize is on psychological resistance. Especially in crypto, way more so than legacy markets, there is a high share of humans trading. This is due to the poor liquidity still in the markets. Large corporations cannot enter crypto and trade it to make their 1 billion into 2 billion. However, amateur traders can enter the markets with their $1.000 and try to make it into $2.000. This is why it's not interesting for the big players to take their algorithms and unleash it on crypto. The relative gains might be sweet, but the absolute gains are meaningless to them. As I broke down in my other post about human-psychology based trading you have to keep an eye on the beautiful round numbers as this is where people find their support or resistance. Exactly at the point where we expect the price to reach a higher high in the rising wedge, we find the resistance of $7.250. This to me is a big indication of confluence. I don't expect that level to break, and want to use this idea to sketch to you the bearish scenario. If the price will keep following this rising wedge, we will see a bearish breakout later. If you want to learn more about the psychology behind trading, check out: Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! About the links below: 20% Discount on Binance: Did you know that Binance introduced a new system where you can get 20% discount on your fees? Find the step-by-step guide on how to add it to your account on the website of 100eyes Forex & Crypto Scanner: Nobody can keep track of all the pairs on all timeframes. This scanner works on Telegram and sends an automated message including a chart every time something happens to a coin. E.g. it can automatically detect areas of support and resistance, RSI Divergences, Fib Retracements, and more.
Short
by Trading-Guru
31
SEX Set-up *Sorry I meant SPX500 ;)It is about time us Bears got together and smashed this cheeky bugger off the worlds top spot. As you can see here we have combined waves of tightening wedge formation on the chart. We also have some strong fundamental key events to help drive emotions and stretch budgets. The cloud of short interest is growing and if we slam hard come NFP we will be able to see a phenomenal short-medium term drop off and correction in price. Tell the FED to pack some Vaseline
FX:SPX500Short
by RSCexclusive
8
Down under getting further down under AUDUSD THE analysisLong term outlook very bleak for the once relatively strong AUD. It's been a tough two years on the Australian currency. With a very wobbly gold price dictating the nerves and a phenomenally crucial period of USD relative strength the AUD is suffering without a doubt. Using a simple fib based regression trend analysis along with a modified pitchfork that ties into the fib I predict a lowering of price here over the course of the next few days and weeks. Entry can be taken now but ideally I would suggest let it pop up just a bit further before taking it on for SHORT positions. As for leverage, margin, size and duration I leave that all to you my trading buddy :) Best of luck and stay safe. It's a dangerous place to be falling without a parachute ;) #winningtrades #thatswhatwedo #changeyourlife
Short
by RSCexclusive