$MKC with a bullish outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a bullish outlook for NYSE:MKC after a positive over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift B with an expected accuracy of 50%.
Tradingideas
$DRI with a bullish outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a bullish outlook for NYSE:DRI after a positive over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift B with an expected accuracy of 88.89%.
XAUUSD / UNDER NFP PRESSURE / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
After a 1.16% increase in gold prices yesterday, today’s trading shows bearish pressure.
The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) news is anticipated to cause significant price movement in the gold market.
If prices remain below the $2,664 to $2,670 range, it suggests a potential decline toward the demand zone between $2,644 and $2,637.
Conversely, if the demand zone is broken and prices stabilize above it, the next target would be the supply zone at $2,681 to $2,686.
Overall Trend , Despite the short-term bearish pressure, the general trend for gold remains upward.
Supply Zone: 2,681$ and 2,686$.
Demand Zone : 2,644$ and 2,637$.
EURUSD / TRADING ABOVE DEMAND ZONE - 4HEURUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The price is currently trading above a demand zone (an area where buying interest is expected to increase) between 1.102 and 1.100.
It suggests that as long as the price remains above this zone, there may be a retest (a drop to the 1.100 level) before the price starts to rise again.
The next likely target is an FVG (Fair Value Gap, which refers to a price inefficiency) between 1.108 and 1.109.
Beyond that, there’s another FVG around 1.111 and 1.113.
On the other hand, if the price breaks below the demand zone (1.100) and closes a 4-hour candle beneath it, this indicates further downside movement.
The next downside target would be the FVG between 1.097 and 1.094.
Supply Zone : 1.120 and 1.121.
Demand Zone : 1.102 and 1.100.
FVG : 1.108 and 1.109 , 1.111 and 1.113.
USOIL / BREAKOUT THE CHANNEL / 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The asset has broken out of a channel and is experiencing bullish pressure. This suggests that the asset’s price is moving upwards after a period of consolidation.
The asset is trading above a supply zone around 74.37 to 73.69. A retest of this zone may occur before prices begin to rise again, targeting a higher supply zone between 76.85 and 77.60.
If the price breaks 73.59, it indicates a potential move to a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 73.07 and 72.15 , his is a zone where price inefficiencies may exist.
If prices stabilize below the FVG zone, it could lead to further declines towards a demand zone between 73.07 and 72.12. This suggests a potential bearish reversal.
Supply Zone : 76.85 and 77.60.
Demand Zone : 73.07 and 72.12.
FVG : 73.07 and 72.15.
EURUSD Buy Off S&RWith the recent USD weakness and NFP news coming up, this could be a good opportunity for a buy trade to recent highs.
USDJPY / UNDER BULLISH PRESSUE / 4HUSDJPY / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
after breakout from a channel, leading to a price increase of 1.82%. The breakout signals potential for further upward movement.
The price is expected to retest a Fair Value Gap (FVG), which is a technical term in trading that represents an area on the chart where price moved quickly, leaving little to no volume. The specified FVG zone is between 145.303 and 144.367. A retest of this area could indicate the market finding support here.
If the price remains above this FVG area and stabilizes, there is an expectation of further increases, potentially reaching the supply zone between 147.602 and 149.360. This suggests that the supply zone is where there could be selling pressure.
A break above the supply zone would indicate even more upside potential for prices.
On the downside, if the price closes a 4-hour candle below the FVG area, the expectation is for prices to decline. This could lead the price to a demand zone between 142.672 and 141.736, suggesting buying interest might come in at this level.
Supply Zone : 147.602 and 149.360.
Demand Zone : 142.672 and 141.736.
FVG : 145.303 and 144.367.
AUDUSD / AFTER BREAKOUT THE CHANNEL - 4HAUDUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
After the breakout channel , the price continues to rise, indicating the market is in an uptrend and buyers are dominating, putting upward pressure on the asset.
The price level of 0.689 is identified as a key support level. As long as the price stays above this, the uptrend is likely to
If the price remains above 0.689, the analysis expects it to move toward the supply zone between 0.697 and 0.701, where there might be resistance or selling pressure.
If a 4-hour candle closes below the 0.689 support level, it signals a potential bearish move. In this case, the price may decline and head towards the demand zone between 0.683 and 0.680.
My Target : supply zone between 0.697 and 0.701.
EURUSD / TRADING UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE - 4HEURUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The prices are currently trending lower, indicating a bearish market sentiment. The next move depends on whether the prices break below or hold certain levels.
Zone between 1.112 and 1.110 , This is identified as a key demand zone, meaning buyers may step in here to prevent further decline. If prices hold in this zone, there’s potential for a reversal upward.
If the price closes below this range based on a 4-hour candle , it suggests continued bearish momentum.
If prices fall below the demand zone, the next target would be between 1.107 and 1.104. This area is likely seen as a FVG , where the price may stabilize or find new demand.
Stabilizing above 1.112 indicates bullish strength and suggests potential upward movement ,The next resistance levels are 1.117 and, if broken, the price could further rise to 1.122.
Supply Zone : 1.117 and 1.125.
Demand Zone : 1.112 and 1.110.
FVG : 1.107 and 1.104.
XAUUSD / UNDER TENSTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The conflict between Iran and Israel has caused a rise in gold prices by 1.80%. Gold, often seen as a safe haven asset, tends to rise in response to global instability.
Prices are currently attempting to reach $2,637 and $2,614.
The all-time high (ATH) price is mentioned as $2,686, with a supply zone extending to $2,720. The text suggests that if prices break above this ATH, they might enter a new supply zone between $2,700 and $2,720.
If gold fails to stay above the supply zone between $2,686 and $2,675 , a decline is expected, possibly reaching the demand zone of $2,637 and $2,614. If prices stabilize below these levels, further declines are predicted.
Despite short-term fluctuations and potential declines
the overall sentiment is bullish, indicating that gold prices are under upward pressure in the long term.
Supply Zone : 2,675$ and 2,686$.
Demand Zone : 2,637$ and 2,624$.
Accumulation Zone : 2,527$ and 2,474$.
NAS100USD / TRADING INSIDE FVG AREA - 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
FVG Area (19,880 - 20,098) , The price is attempting to reach a Fair Value Gap (FVG) area. This suggests that the market is looking for equilibrium within this range. The mention of trading and stabilizing in this range implies that consolidation is happening, and a decision on future direction may follow.
Possible Decline to Demand Zone (19,540 - 19,367) , If the price doesn't sustain upward movement within the FVG and begins to weaken, it suggests a potential decline toward the demand zone. Demand zones are areas where buying interest is strong, potentially providing support for the price.
Breaking FVG Area Could Lead to Rise (20,328) , If the price breaks above the FVG area, it is expected to rise, with the next target being the supply line around 20,328. Breaking this level could signal an uptrend.
Uptrend Confirmation (20,654 - 20,785) , For a confirmed uptrend, the price would need to break through this supply zone. Supply zones often represent resistance areas where selling pressure could halt upward momentum.
Supply Zone : 20,654 and 20,785.
Demand Zone : 19,540 and 19,367.
FVG : 19,880 and 20,098.
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another great day on the chart today with our 4H chart playing out, as analysed.
We had price play between two weighted levels. 2669 Goldturn resistance and 2650, as Goldturn support and both highlighted, as targets.
- Both targets have been completed. We were able to take advantage of the drop and buy inline with our plans to buy dips and complete the bullish target. We need to also keep in mind the retracement range was not fully completed and a gap left open.
We are seeing price test 2650 for support and if this holds; we are likely to see another 2669 test. However, we will need to see ema5 lock above 2669 or we are likely to see another drop to complete the full retracement range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2669 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2669 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2695
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2695 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2717
POTENTIALLY 2738
BEARISH TARGETS
2650 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2650 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
RETRACEMENT RANGE
2615
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2615 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2582 - 2556
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
$JBL with a bullish outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a bullish outlook for NYSE:JBL after a positive over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift B with an expected accuracy of 70%.
$FDS with a bullish outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a bullish outlook for NYSE:FDS after a positive under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift A with an expected accuracy of 71.43%.
$COST with a bullish outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a bullish outlook for NASDAQ:COST after a negative under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D with an expected accuracy of 80%.
$ACN with a bullish outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a bullish outlook for NYSE:ACN after a positive over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift B with an expected accuracy of 71.43%.
NAS100USD / TRADING INTO SENSITIVE AREA - 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The statement mentions that prices began to increase by 10.95% at the beginning of September.
This indicates a strong bullish trend at the start of the month, reflecting optimism in the market or strong performance from NASDAQ 100 constituent companies.
Yesterday's drop of 1.61% indicates a short-term bearish move, suggesting market sentiment has turned negative or there's profit-taking after the earlier rally.
The expectation of a further decline of 2.35% and potentially 3.92% implies that the current bearish sentiment may persist.
Technical Analysis:
Current Market Condition:
The statement suggests that the NASDAQ 100 is trading in a sensitive range between 20,330 and 19,954, and that breaking either of these levels will determine the market's direction.
Upward Condition:
- Target 1: If the price trades above 20,330, it's expected to rise to 20,795.
- Target 2: If the price stabilizes above 20,795, the next target is 20,980.
Downward Condition:
- If the price falls below 19,954, it suggests a potential decline:
- Target 1: A decline to 19,884.
- Target 2: If it breaks below 19,884, further decline is expected to 19,335.
XAUUSD / UNDER TENSTION OF THE MIDDLE EAST - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
After reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $2,686, the price began to decline by 1.60%. This dip is likely due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, given the instability in the region, the price is expected to rise again, potentially reaching a supply zone between $2,700 and $2,720.
As long as the price remains stable above the $2,637 and $2,614 levels, my target is to see it returning to $2,686. However, a break below $2,614 triggered a further decline, bringing the price down to $2,586 and potentially testing the next support at $2,559.
My Target : 2,586$.
Supply Zone : 2,700$ , 2,720$.
Demand Zone : 2,586$ , 2,559$.
WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
I wanted to start the week with an update on our weekly chart idea shared yesterday. We stated and highlighted the detachment below for the correction and we also advised that we were looking for are-test on the channel top.
We are looking for support above the channel top for a bounce and continuation. However, as stated yesterday; If we get a break inside the channel then we will track the movement with the levels highlighted within the channel and our smaller timeframe chart ideas to track the movement down and catch the bounces up.
If the channel top provides support then we will track the movement up confirmed with ema5 cross and lock or candle body close. We currently have a candle body close gap to 2729 long range AXIS TARGET.
The overall structure still remains Bullish, we just need to manage swings inline with corrections, which are always likely after a strong bull run..
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Market News Report - 29 September 2024Due to an unsurprising rate hold, the Aussie was among the top-performing currencies in the major forex markets. Meanwhile, the dollar fell against AUD and several other currencies as the recent Fed cut continues to downplay the greenback.
Have any fundamental outlooks changed for this week compared to our last report? Let's find out.
Market Overview
Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies.
US dollar (USD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
Unsurprisingly, the Fed's recent historic 50 basis points (bps) rate cut is still a hot topic, keeping the bearish bias firmly in place. The central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year.
In line with this sentiment, the Fed also revised 'dots' lower, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment higher.
Negative expected jobs and ISM services data coming this week will add further to the bearish pressure.
Despite these fundamentals, the DXY has yet to break the support area at 100.617, instead ranging around this level for quite a while now. So, be mindful of a potential technically-driven retracement.
Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Markets anticipate rate cuts before the year ends, with the Fed keen to harness a soft landing. Also, any data on weakened jobs would be another bearish driver for the dollar.
However, any potential strength in upcoming GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and jobs would make rate cuts less urgent, allowing for a USD retracement.
Euro (EUR)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
As usual, the STIR (short-term interest markets) were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate a few weeks ago. While 'being mum' about forward guidance, they revised core inflation projections higher.
Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate (STIR) markets have indicated a 93% chance of a rate cut in October.
Meanwhile, the chart tells a slightly different story. After recently breaking a major resistance, the next target is 1.12757. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.07774.
Long-term outlook: bearish.
After a long period, we have changed the long-term bias to 'bearish' (from 'weak bearish'). The ECB has yet to commit to a specific future path with the interest rate for some time.
Due to lingering concerns over services inflation, a rate cut in October has become more likely than before. There is a 7% chance (down from 67% of a hold (according to STIR markets). All of this accents the bearish bias.
British pound (GBP)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its meeting. Still, the language indicates that they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Early last week, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates.
As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Expect any shocks in inflation (or other data like labour) to send the pound lower.
Like the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. However, it is more bullish. We must go onto the weekly chart to see the next resistance target at (1.34825).
On the other hand, the nearest key support is far away at 1.26156.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, expect any weak CPI, labour, and GDP data to back up the bearish bias. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief.
Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point.
Japanese yen (JPY)
Short-term outlook: bullish.
The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year.
Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation. All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike.
USD/JPY has long been bearish, recently surpassing (but not breaking with confidence) the major resistance at 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive
Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle.
Australian dollar (AUD)
Short-term outlook: weak bullish.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 24 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement.
The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes, especially with declining iron ore prices from the country’s steelmakers. As always, it depends on drops or rises in economic data like GDP, inflation and labour.
The Aussie market has risen noticeably of late, having exceeded the recent resistance level at 0.68711. However, as it has yet to break the level confidently, we need to see how it behaves near the latter.
Meanwhile, the major support level is down at 0.63484.
Long-term outlook: weak bullish.
The RBA has certainly changed their tune from hawkish to slightly hawkish/dovish. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area.
However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, so it is exposed to economic growth in other countries.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Short-term outlook: weak bearish.
In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.'
Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) also revised cash rate projections lower, which signals a dovish move. The markets see a 70% chance of an 0.5% rate cut next month.
The Kiwi has recently breached a major resistance at 0.62220. While the next target is at 0.63696 (where it is very close to hitting), the latter area is still worth considering.
Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area which it is unlikely to test soon.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.'
However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. So, traders should be data-dependent.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently dropped the interest rate to 4.25%, as anticipated by the markets for some time. Further cuts in the next few meetings are on the cards (with a 57% chance of a 50bps cut next month), with the long-term target being 3%.
Unemployment, weak economic growth, and mortgage stress are the key drivers for this dovishness.
The CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness. It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. Governor Macklem himself stated a while ago that it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Any big misses in the upcoming data for GBP, inflation, and GDP will probably boost the chance of a rate cut next month.
Also, mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it.
Expect encouraging oil prices, along with general economic data improvement, to save the Canadian dollar's blushes.
Swiss franc (CHF)
Short-term outlook: bearish.
STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) this past week. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters.
Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions, such as a worsening Middle East crisis.
We are seeing a clear range on USD/CHF in a strong bear move. So, let's see which side the market is going to incline more towards going forward (although it looks more south than north).
The major support level is closer at (0.83326), while the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244.
Long-term outlook: weak bearish.
The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc.
On the flip side, 'safe haven flows' and geopolitical risks can be positively supportive for the currency. As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates.
Conclusion
We have kept our fundamental outlooks the same, except for the long-term outlook on the euro. Anyone trading the latter in the coming weeks should bear this in mind. Besides the US-related news, this week isn't filled with high-impact economic events, meaning less volatility.
Still, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
USOIL / UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Recent Decline , Prices began to drop at the end of September by 7.12%. This indicates a noticeable downtrend, which could be driven by various market factors.
Support Level at 67.22 , Currently, prices are trading slightly above this key support level. If the price breaks below 67.22, it may trigger a further decline of 9.80%.
Potential for Rebound , If the support level holds, a potential rise could occur. Two potential rise targets are a 3.48% increase and a 6.27% increase, depending on how strong the support level is and whether positive momentum returns.
Technical Analysis:
Current Support Level , The price of USOIL is currently above 67.22. This level serves as a critical support point; if prices remain above this, it suggests bullish sentiment.
Target Range (FVG) , If prices hold above 67.22, the analysis predicts an upward movement toward a Fair Value Gap (FVG) area between 68.73 and 69.48. This implies potential buying interest or liquidity in that range.
Further Resistance , If the price breaks through the FVG area, it could rise further to reach a resistance level at 71.74. This indicates a bullish outlook if the upward momentum continues.
Conversely, if the price drops below 67.22, it suggests a bearish trend, potentially declining to 65.24. This indicates a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish.
GOLD DAILY CHART SHORT/MID TERM ROUTE MAP Hey Everyone,
Please see our updated daily chart idea with updated retracement, swing range and Goldturn levels.
We are seeing price between two weighted levels. We have 2690 Goldturn resistance and 2645, as Goldturn support.
We currently have a gap above at 2690, as we had ema5 cross and lock above 2645 opening 2690. The daily chart averages are lagging so sometimes gaps get filled before ema5 confirmation, in which case candle body close gaps are suffice. This gap has ema5 cross and lock leaving 2690 gap open before the rejection to find support at 2645 Goldturn for the bounce.
Please note a break below 2645 will also open the lower range, which we can use to track the movement down and catch the bounces up.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we will continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
After tracking and trading our last long term weekly chart idea, we finally completed it and promised you all a new weekly chart long term chart idea.
Please see our new week chart idea that we will be tracking and trading over the coming weeks and months if needed.
We are currently seeing a breakout outside the new Goldturn channel (our unique way of drawing channels). We also have a detachment to ema5 below also inline with the channel top for a possible re-test for a correction. If we get a break inside the channel then we will track the movement with the levels highlighted for the bounces and ema5 cross and lock to track the movement level to level.
If the channel top provides support then we will track the movement up confirmed with ema5 cross and lock or candle body close. We currently have a candle body close gap to 2729 long range AXIS TARGET.
Just to confirm if we see a rejection before the gap and a break back into the channel then we will use the levels within the channel to provide the bounces, inline with our plans to buy dips in true level to level fashion, using our smaller time-frames keeping in mind the long range gap for the future..
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings, instead of chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
