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GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Slow start to the week with ranging movement following on from the breakout last week into this ATH range. However, as analysed we got the first Bullish target hit today at 2581 during Tokyo session. We now have a ema5 lock above 2581 opening upto 2591, which gave just over 40 pips and remains open. We need to also keep in mind the Bearish gap below at 2567. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We are taking extra caution with our buys in this new range, as bigger corrections are likely. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2581 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2581 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2591 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2591 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2603 POTENTIALLY 2615 BEARISH TARGETS 2567 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2567 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2554 - 2538 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2538 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2516 - 2506 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
16
Market News Report - 15 September 2024This past week, the Japanese yen was the strongest currency against all the major forex markets. Meanwhile, its counterparts performed mildly. How long will the yen be dominant? What about the other currencies? This week consists of several high-impact, interest rate-related events that will surely be a spectacle. Let's discuss each major forex currency's short and long-term outlooks in our latest report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR (short-term interest rate) markets expect at least four full rate cuts before the end of this year. They also suggest a 50% chance (up from 36% last week) of a 50 bps (basis points) cut at this week's meeting. So, diarise this high-impact news event. However, any sense of the Fed holding back on a cut would send the dollar sharply higher. The DXY chart aligns perfectly with the fundamentals. It recently reached a major support area (100.617) on the daily chart and is still near this level. Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348 and will likely remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. Markets anticipate several full rate cuts before the year ends. However, the meeting on Thursday may strengthen the USD if the Fed doesn't proceed with a 50 bps cut. Still, data on weakened jobs is another bearish driver for the dollar. Only geopolitical risks, bond market selling, and interest rate differentials can affect this sentiment. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered the interest rate as we've predicted for several weeks. However, STIR markets have shifted towards a hawkish direction for future ECB meetings. We should also note that the central bank remains 'data-dependent' and not committed to the potential for cuts going forward. We've seen some bearishness on the euro chart. It is some distance from the major resistance at 1.127575, and it's hard to tell where it may attempt to reach this area soon. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.07774. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The ECB hasn't committed to a specific future path with the interest rate. Furthermore, the central bank is overly concerned about services inflation, reducing the chance of a rate cut next month. Also, STIR markets anticipate a 67% chance of a hold during this meeting. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at the beginning of last month. However, the BoE remains data-dependent and has no set future path. STIR markets are currently pricing two additional cuts for the remainder of 2024. The central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. Any future failures here would likely weaken the GBP. Watch out for the new interest rate (or 'Official Bank Rate') this Thursday. As with the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. It recently breached the major resistance at 1.31424. So, the next area of interest is near by at 1.32666. On the other hand, the nearest key support is far below at 1.26156. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. While the interest rate is the chief bearish driver for the pound, the BoE has yet to signal a future path in this regard. STIR markets predict a rate hold next for the Thursday meeting (79% chance vs. 74% chance last week). Furthermore, two-way risks remain based on upcoming economic data, particularly inflation. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision in July to hike the interest rate (15 bps hike vs the 10 bps expected). STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability) at the next meeting this Friday but a hike at the start of next year. So, the bullish bias is intact, more so with the rate-cutting mood of other major centrals like the Fed, ECB, and BoE. The USD/JPY market perfectly reflects the fundamental outlook of the dollar and yen. Very few would have predicted the current picture of this chart. This pair is very close to touching the major support area at 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. In addition to the recent rate hike (and the potential for a hold at the next meeting), lower US Treasury yields are other bullish catalysts for the yen. Also, the Bank of Japan is actively intervening in the forex markets, contributing to the JPY's upside for many weeks. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unsurprisingly kept the interest rate unchanged not long ago to keep the fight against persistent inflation. Moreover, Governor Bullock expressed last week that the central bank must see 'results' on the latter before lowering rates. Inflation is also a problem for the RBA, indicating that rate cuts would be premature. Like many currencies, the Aussie remains data-sensitive, whether we consider economic growth, labour, or inflation going forward. As a pro-cyclical currency, China's economic woes have been negative for the Aussie (something else to keep in mind). The Aussie market has risen noticeably of late, having reached a recent resistance level (0.67986). While dipping last week, the next target at 0.68711 isn't so far away. Meanwhile, the major support level is down at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA remains hawkish as per the recent meeting, focusing on core inflation. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, with recent labour data keeping the bullish script alive. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical. So, it is exposed to slow economic growth in other countries. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. New Zealand's central bank dropped the Kiwi's interest rate from 5.50% to 5.25% last month. Lower-revised cash rate projections and a variety of core inflation measures also hint at the potential for further cuts in the near future. However, it is the usual data-dependency for NZD that could drive the currency either direction. The Kiwi has recently breached a major resistance at 0.62220 - the next target is 0.63696. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area that it is unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for the NZD. As with other currencies, traders should be data-dependent, especially around inflation and wages. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Canadian dollar is fresh off an interest rate cut (from 4.50% to 4.25%). Furthermore, STIR markets indicate a 91% chance of another cut next month and two full rate cuts before the end of 2024. Rising unemployment and weak economic growth are key drivers of the Bank of Canada's dovish stance. Let's not forget the ongoing mortgage stress, a long-running bearish theme for CAD. Among other factors, Canada's ongoing mortgage stress has forced its central bank to be dovish. Despite the above, the CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness. It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with the BoC governor Macklem himself saying it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. In the recent meeting, they also wished for economic growth. The mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. However, expect encouraging oil prices, along with general economic data improvement, to save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets forecast a 25 bps rate cut later this month and in December this year. Also, despite the positive trend of falling inflation, the Swiss National Bank is pressured to weaken the Swiss franc to facilitate more exports. However, the CHF can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like the Middle East crisis. USD/CHF has trended down nicely for several weeks, now looking to test the support area at 0.83326. Meanwhile, the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The expected rate cut in the next SNB meetings for 2024 is the main bearish driver. However, the SNB's chairperson, Thomas Jordan, expressed that "appreciation of the Swiss Franc has an impact on monetary policy." This means that potential intervention by the central bank can go either way. Conclusion The fundamental outlooks of each currency have remained unchanged from our previous report. Getting three interest rate decision events a day after another in a week happens once in a blue moon. Thus, we should expect higher-than-average volatility. Otherwise, keep our fundamental outlooks in mind as you tackle this - hope for the best and prepare for the worst!
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK Hey Everyone, Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are in a new rage but just like last time we were able to generate accurate levels to use for the coming week. We are seeing price between two weighted levels. We have 2581 Goldturn resistance and 2567, as Goldturn support. We currently have a gap above on market open at 2581 and below at 2567 and will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2581 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2581 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2591 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2591 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2603 POTENTIALLY 2615 BEARISH TARGETS 2567 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2567 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2554 - 2538 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2538 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2516 - 2506 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
14
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK Hey Everyone, Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing price between two weighted levels. We have 2590 Goldturn resistance and we have 2564, as Goldturn support. We currently have a gap open above at 2590 and below at 2564 and will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2590 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2590 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2608 POTENTIALLY 2626 BEARISH TARGETS 2564 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2564 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2545 - 2517 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2517 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2493 - 2468 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
3
DAILY CHART MID/LONG TERM CHART UPDATEHey Everyone, Please see update on our daily chart structure that we have been tracking and trading successfully for a while now. Last week we stated we stated that we still have the candle body close above 2521 for the gap to 2566 and we would need Ema5 lock to further confirm and strengthen this gap. Currently ema5 is playing just under it and we will continue to observe and update this. - This has played out perfectly with 2566 now hit completing this target. We now have a candle body close above 2566 leaving a long term gap to 2608 and if we get a ema5 lock then this will further strengthen the gap. We have to also keep in mind that we have a support range between 2566 - 2521 for longer range support areas to buy strategic dips, should the corrections take place before completing gaps above. We will use smaller timeframe analysis and trading plans to navigate the range in true level to level fashion. Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we will continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups. Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
3
WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM CHART UPDATEHey Everyone, Please see update on our weekly chart idea and analysis that we have been tracking and trading for several months. Previously we stated that we had the candle body close above 2505 leaving a gap to 2557. We also stated that we need to keep in mind that we have a ema5 detachment below highlighted on the chart with a circle for a possible correction area. We then got the detachment touch below two weeks ago, followed with the bounce like we analysed. Last week the bounce completed the full range and hit our target at 2557 perfectly. Just amazing to see our analysis play out in true level to level fashion. We also stated that all channels that break usually require the channel top to become support outside the channel for further continuations before new channels form and once again this played out like we analysed. We now have a candle body close above 2557 leaving a long term Axis gap target to 2603, which we shared on this chart number of weeks back. The new weekly candle will have a detachment below for correction range which will show up when market opens. Please note any corrections below that fail to provide support outside of the channel, means price breaks back into the channel, in which case the channel re-activates for trading and tracking level to level once again Therefore, if we see a rejection before the gap and a break back into the channel then we will use the levels within the channel to provide the bounces, inline with our plans to buy dips in true level to level fashion, using our smaller time-frames keeping in mind the long range gap for the future.. Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings, instead of chasing the bull from the top. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
7
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, A PIPTASTIC finish to the week with our multi timeframe chart analysis hitting targets completing all our chart ideas. We remained committed to the bull and it paid off!! Yesterday we shared updates on the 1H and 4H chart ideas, with both ideas completed and here we have the daily chart update. This chart has been followed every week for a number of months and we have confirmed the close above 2521 leaving the gap open to 2566 for over two weeks. This was finally completed today, which also had a ema5 lock further confirming the gap before hitting it. We will now come back Sunday with our updated Multi time-frame analysis, Gold route map and trading plans for the week ahead. Have a smashing weekend!! And once again, thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
6
GOLD 1H AND 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, We totally smashed our 1H and 4H chart ideas today!!! Eme5 cross and lock above 2517 confirmed 2536 and 2550 on this 4h chart idea, which was completed perfectly. We will now look for ema5b cross and lock above 2550 to open the range above. Please see our 1H chart idea below; This chart had ema5 cross and lock above 2523 opening 2534 and 2547, which were both hit perfectly today completing this chart idea. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2517 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2517 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2536 -DONE POTENTIALLY 2550 - DONE BEARISH TARGETS 2493 - DONE As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
11
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Our 1H chart is once again representing level to level, inline with our plans to buy dips. Monday we stated that 2495 support target was hit and we were seeing price bounce off the retracement range to head towards 2506 bullish target. - This was hit perfectly followed with ema5 cross and lock above 2506 opening 2523, which was also hit perfectly. No further lock above 2523 confirmed the rejection back to 2506 weighted level now turned support, providing the bounce, as per our analysis. We will now see price play between 2506 and 2523 and will need ema5 lock to confirm breakout or fadeouts We will continue with our plans to buy dips and keep note of any unfilled gaps below, which helps us plan to buy dips accordingly. However, as always each of our weighted levels gave the 30 to 40 pip bounces, as analysed and played out perfectly! We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2506 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2506 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2523 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2523 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2535 POTENTIALLY 2547 BEARISH TARGETS 2495 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2495 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2482 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2482 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2472 - 2461 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
10
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Another PIPTASTIC day on the chart today with our 4H chart also playing out perfectly. We got our 1H chart 2506 target hit yesterday and now today we got our 4H chart target at 2517 hit perfectly with precision. We are seeing price between two weighted levels. We have 2517 Goldturn resistance and we have 2493, as Goldturn support. Both 2493 bearish and 2517 Bullish targets complete. We will now need to see ema5 cross and lock either level to determine the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2517 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2517 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2536 POTENTIALLY 2550 BEARISH TARGETS 2493 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2493 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2468 2438 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2438 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2416 - 2389 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
18
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Great start to the week with our chart idea playing out inline with our plans to buy dips. We were seeing price between two weighted levels and had 2506 Goldturn resistance target and 2495, as Goldturn support target. 2495 support target was hit and now we are seeing price bounce off the retracement range to head towards 2506 bullish target. We need to keep note that ema5 has locked and left a gap below at 2482 and just fell short of completing this gap. We will continue with our plans to buy dips and keep note of any unfilled gaps below, which helps us plan to buy dips accordingly. However, as always each of our weighted levels gave the 30 to 40 pip bounces, as analysed and played out perfectly! We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2506 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2506 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2523 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2523 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2535 POTENTIALLY 2547 BEARISH TARGETS 2495 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2495 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2482 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2482 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2472 - 2461 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
17
Market News Report - 08 September 2024Our fundamental outlooks for the major currencies remain the same from the past week. However, those that we considered bearish, like the British pound and the US dollar have shown strength recently. Nonetheless, let's see what to expect from all the major forex markets performance-wise in our latest news report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR (short-term interest rate) markets expect at least four full rate cuts before the end of this year. They also suggest a 36% chance of a 50 bps (basis points) cut at the meeting next week on the 18th. Another bearish focus for the US is the slowing labour market, according to the latest jobs revisions data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Diarise the upcoming inflation rate and initial jobless claims for the dollar this week. The DXY chart aligns perfectly with the fundamentals. It recently reached a major support area (100.617) on the daily chart and is still near this level. Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348 and will likely remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. Markets anticipate several full rate cuts before the year ends. Also, data on weakened jobs is another bearish driver for the dollar. Only geopolitical risks, bond market selling, and interest rate differentials can affect this sentiment. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The primary bearish driver is the interest rate, with STIR markets anticipating a very high chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the meeting this Thursday. Furthermore, the Governing Council affirmed that rates need to remain "sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary." However, the European Central Bank (ECB) has also stressed that it is data-dependent. This means that certain economic data, like employment data, may boost the euro. Meanwhile, the chart tells a slightly different story. After breaking the last major resistance (although dropping slightly now), the next target is 1.12757. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.07774. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The ECB hasn't committed to a specific future path with the interest rate. They are data-dependent, meaning data around inflation, growth, and wage improvement can lift the euro. However, their meeting in July was slightly more dovish than hawkish. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at the beginning of last month. However, the BoE remains data-dependent and has no set future path. STIR markets are currently pricing two additional cuts for the remainder of 2024. The central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. Any future failures here would likely weaken the GBP. Watch out for the new unemployment and inflation rates on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. As with the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. It has just broken the major resistance at 1.31424. So, the next area of interest is near by at 1.32666. On the other hand, the nearest key support is far below at 1.26156. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. While the interest rate is the chief bearish driver for the pound, the BoE has yet to signal a future path in this regard. STIR markets predict a rate hold next month (74% chance vs. 62% chance last week). Furthermore, two-way risks remain based on upcoming economic data, particularly with inflation. Also, GBP/USD has been pushing higher of late due to USD weakness on Fed easing hopes. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision in July to hike the interest rate (15 bps hike vs the 10 bps expected). STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability, up from 95% last week) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year. So, the bullish bias is intact, more so with the rate-cutting mood of other major centrals like the Fed, ECB, and BoE. The USD/JPY market perfectly reflects the fundamental outlook of the dollar and yen. This pair looks to now target the major support area at 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. In addition to the recent rate hike, other bullish catalysts for the yen include lower US Treasury yields. Also, the Bank of Japan is actively intervening in the forex markets, contributing to the JPY's upside. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unsurprisingly kept the interest rate unchanged not long ago to keep the fight against persistent inflation. Moreover, Governor Bullock expressed last week that the central bank must see 'results' on the latter before lowering rates. Like many currencies, the Aussie remains data-sensitive, whether we look at economic growth, labour, or inflation going forward. The recent rise in China's share prices, which correlates with the Aussie, has been positive for the currency. Still, there is doubt over the longevity of this run. The Aussie market has risen noticeably of late, having reached a recent resistance level (0.67986). While dipping last week, the next target at 0.68711 isn't so far away. Meanwhile, the major support level is down at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA remains hawkish as per the recent meeting, focusing on core inflation. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, with recent labour data keeping the bullish script alive. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical. So, it is exposed to slow economic growth in other countries. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. New Zealand's central bank recently dropped the Kiwi's interest rate from 5.50% to 5.25%. Lower-revised cash rate projections also hint at the potential for further cuts in the near future. The Kiwi has recently breached a major resistance at 0.62220 - the next target is 0.63696. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area that it is unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The central bank's dovish stance in its latest meeting (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for the NZD. As with its counterpart, traders should be data-dependent. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Canadian dollar is fresh off an interest rate cut (from 4.50% to 4.25%), confirming the overwhelming probability suggested by STIR markets. Furthermore, the latter indicates a 91% chance of another cut next month and two full rate cuts before the end of 2024. Among other factors, Canada's ongoing mortgage stress has forced its central bank to be dovish. Despite the above, the CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness (although the dollar gained the upper hand this past week). It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with the BoC governor Macklem himself saying it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. In last week's meeting, they also wished for economic growth. The mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. However, expect encouraging oil prices, along with general economic data improvement, to save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets forecast a rate cut later this month and December this year. Also, despite the positive trend of falling inflation, the Swiss National Bank is pressured to weaken the Swiss franc to make exports easier. However, the CHF can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like the Middle East crisis. USD/CHF has trended down nicely for several weeks, now looking to test the support area at 0.83326. Meanwhile, the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The expected rate cut in the next SNB meetings for 2024 is the main bearish driver. However, the SNB's chairperson, Thomas Jordan, expressed that "appreciation of the Swiss Franc has an impact on monetary policy." This means that potential intervention by the central bank can go either way. Conclusion The fundamental outlooks of each currency have remained mostly unchanged from the previous report. Thursday will arguably be the most anticipated day due to the ECB's interest rate decision. However, keep an eye on the high-impact news events for the dollar and the British pound. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst, but this report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing price between two weighted levels. We have 2506 Goldturn resistance and 2495, as Goldturn support. We currently have a gap above on market open at 2506 and below at 2495 and will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2506 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2506 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2523 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2523 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2535 POTENTIALLY 2547 BEARISH TARGETS 2495 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2495 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2482 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2482 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2472 - 2461 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
20
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing price between two weighted levels. We have 2517 Goldturn resistance and we have 2493, as Goldturn support. We currently have a gap open above at 2517 and below at 2493 and will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2517 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2517 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2536 POTENTIALLY 2550 BEARISH TARGETS 2493 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2493 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2468 2438 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2438 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2416 - 2389 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
7
DAILY CHART UPDATEHey Everyone, Please see update on our daily chart structure that we have been tracking and trading successfully for a while now. Same as last week, we still have the candle body close above 2521 for the gap to 2566. We would need Ema5 lock to further confirm and strengthen this gap. Currently ema5 is playing just under it and we will continue to observe and update this. We have to also keep in mind that we have a support range below at 2464 - 2405 for longer range support areas to buy strategic dips if the corrections take place before completing gaps above. We will use smaller timeframe analysis and trading plans to navigate the range in true level to level fashion. Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we will continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups. Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
2
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM/RANGE ROUTE MAPHey Everyone, Please see update on our weekly chart idea and analysis that we have been tracking and trading for several months. Last week we had the same again with a candle body close above 2505 again leaving a gap to 2557. We also stated that we need to keep in mind that we have a ema5 detachment below highlighted on the chart with a circle for a possible correction area. - This played out perfectly by providing the correctional touch below on the highlighted area with a circle and then the bounce, which is also inline with the channel top support for the bounce just like we said. All channels that break usually require the channel top to become support outside the channel for further continuations before new channels form. Failure to provide support outside of the channel, means price breaks back into the channel, in which case the channel re-activates for trading and tracking level to level once again Therefore, if we see a rejection before the gap and a break back into the channel then we will use the levels within the channel to provide the bounces, inline with our plans to buy dips in true level to level fashion, using our smaller time-frames keeping in mind the long range gap for the future.. Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings, instead of chasing the bull from the top. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
7
Gold glimmers with potential as bullish sentiment prevailsToday's outlook for gold (XAU/USD) in the forex market remains bullish, driven by a combination of factors. The price is currently trading near significant resistance levels around $2,531, supported by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would lower bond yields and make gold more attractive. Traders are particularly focused on upcoming U.S. employment data, which could further influence gold prices. A weaker-than-expected jobs report would likely push prices higher, potentially toward $2,600 in the short term. However, if the data shows strong job growth, gold may face downward pressure, with potential corrections towards $2,483-2,477
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BELLATRIXFX
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Another PIPTASTIC day on the charts today with our analysis playing out in true level to level fashion. Yesterday we stated that we were now looking for a 2498 weighted resistance re-test and a cross and lock above this level will re-open the range above. - This played out perfectly, as we got the 2498 target hit followed with the cross and lock confirmation for 2509, which was also hit perfectly!! We now also have 2509 cross and lock opening 2524, which gave a nice capture and fell just just short of a few pips and will now be keeping this mind. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2509 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2509 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2524 2535 BEARISH TARGETS 2498 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2498 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2484 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2484 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2472 (DONE) - 2461 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
24
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Please see update on our 1H chart idea, which has been playing out level to level. Yesterday on our 4H chart update we stated that our 1H chart had a lock below opening the lower range. This was the 2498 bearish target, which was hit and followed with a cross and lock opening the retracement range 2484. This was also hit perfectly and gave the perfect bounce, as part of our plans to buy dips from the weighted levels. We currently still have a gap above at 2509 and will only target this if the lower weighted levels are rejected with no further locks. Otherwise we are happy to track the movement down and catch the buys from the weighted level bounces. We will also keep in mind that a cross and lock below the retracement range will open the swing range for the extended bounce. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2509 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2509 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2524 2535 BEARISH TARGETS 2498 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2498 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2484 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2484 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2472 - 2461 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
46