Get started

Tradingideas

US30 / UNDER CPI PRESSURE / 4HUS30 /4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS The analysis begins by noting a profitable decline of 590 pips, indicating that the asset has experienced a significant downward movement recently, which has been profitable for traders taking short positions. The price is approaching an FVG zone between 43,381 and 42,984. A Fair Value Gap typically represents an area where the price may experience consolidation, or a period of sideways movement, before it makes a decision to either move higher or lower. If consolidation occurs within the FVG, the price may rise toward a supply zone (44,252 to 44,532), which suggests a resistance area where selling pressure could occur, preventing the price from moving higher. The analysis highlights a bearish sentiment, meaning the overall expectation is for the price to continue moving downward unless there is a breakout above the supply zone , If the price fails to stabilize above the FVG, further decline is expected. The target for this decline is a support zone between 42,716 and 42,335, where buyers might enter, potentially halting the downward move. The downward pressure is noted as the dominant force unless the price manages to break above the supply zone ,Traders will need to watch whether the asset stabilizes within the FVG, as this will determine whether the bearish trend continues or a reversal occurs.
EIGHTCAP:US30Short
by ArinaKarayi
7
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Great start to the week with our chart idea playing out as analysed, allowing us to buy dips using our weighted levels to track the movement down and catch the buys up. We started with our bearish target at 2703 hit, followed with ema5 cross and lock to open the retracement range. - This was hit perfectly fand gave the reactional bounce into the highlighted area at 2684. Allowing us to buy dips inline with our plans. The retracement range was again retested and now broken after no lock above 2684, which followed with a test now into the swing range. We will now patiently wait for a reaction on this range for the bounce or a lock bellow to open the range further down. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2728 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2728 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2743 POTENTIALLY 2759 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2759 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2772 POTENTIALLY 2787 BEARISH TARGETS 2703 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2703 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 2684 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2684 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 2657 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2657 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 2638 SWING RANGE 2638 (DONE) - 2620 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
17
Market News Report - 24 November 2024It's become clichéd to report another bullish week for the dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen and the British pound were among the most bearish. The dynamic with the greenback is interesting in that, despite the bearish fundamentals, the currency is still pretty strong. Let's cover this idea and more in our latest market news report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The Fed recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points/bps from 5.00% to 4.75%. While labour data was down recently, this was mainly due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing. While some mildly positive economic data exists, the bearish bias remains for USD, with STIR pricing indicating one more 25 bps cut in December. However, Powell stated on November 14th that the economy isn't giving signals that the Fed must be in a rush to cut rates. The Dixie continues to head north, touching the key resistance at 107.348. Meanwhile, the key support is far away at 100.157, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. A noteworthy point about the recent Fed meeting is the removal of the line "the committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent." Finally, Powell also clarified that the US elections won't affect their decisions going forward. The big takeaway is that the Fed will see how fast/far they should cut rates. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. The short-term interest rate (STIR) markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). Short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 84% chance of a rate cut in December (also backed by the ECB's Stournaras). Also, we have seen weaker economic data across various European nations. Another concern is that a protectionist US policy (with Donald Trump winning the election) could impact trade in the Eurozone, suggesting the potential for lower growth due to tariff risks. Actually, the dollar is among the euro's main drivers. The euro has clearly broken the key support we mentioned previously (1.07774) - the next area of interest is 1.04485. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. The threat of a fresh trade tariff with Trump is hugely influential and may cause the euro to be sold off on tariff fears. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the bank rate from 5% to 4.75% as anticipated. The language indicates they need to be restrictive and a "gradual approach" to policy easing. Governor Bailey also highlighted that rates will probably be brought down cautiously. Despite this, we saw a slight increase in GBP/USD. This may be in line with the BoE's slightly hawkish attitude due to recent inflationary pressures. Like other dollar pairs, GBP/USD has looked bearish for some time. After breaching the key support at 1.26165, the next area of interest is now 1.22994. Meanwhile, the resistance target is far away at 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The BoE sees inflation (its main concern currently) as being stickier for longer. Bailey wishes to see it down to 2%. This is a moderately hawkish hint. Overall, incoming CPI (and other economic) data will be important for the British pound. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently kept the interest rate the same at the end of last month. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention. At the last BoJ interest rate announcement, Ueda stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections weren't realised. Last week, he backed up this sentiment by saying that keeping real interest rates too long for too long would lead to higher inflation, which is a hawkish suggestion. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The BoJ's tightening stance and inflationary pressures give the yen a bullish mood. The central bank wishes to avoid further JPY weakness, with Finance Minister Kato warning against 'excessive FX moves.' We should also keep an eye on US Treasury yields, as rising yields could derail JPY upside. Conversely, any declines in US yields would likely provide a major boost to the yen. Australian dollar (AUD) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate unchanged last week, marking the eighth consecutive hold. They emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation moves toward its target. The RBA also lowered its GDP forecasts while the labour market remains tight. Diarise the upcoming CPI for the Aussie on Wednesday. Despite the slightly bullish fundamentals, the dollar is dominant against the Aussie. The key resistance level lies ahead at 0.69426, while the major support remains at 0.63484. Despite this bearish setup, consider the interesting dynamic with the opposite fundamentals of AUD and USD in your overall analysis. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA suggests that rate hikes won't be necessary going forward, it hasn't ruled anything out. Governor Bullock recently mentioned that they would act if the economy dropped more than desired. It’s crucial to be data-dependent on the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. Also, the Australian dollar is procyclical, with particular exposure to China's geopolitics. Trump's recent win in the US election means the prospect of trade tariffs with China has increased (potentially causing headwinds for AUD). New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut this Tuesday of potentially the same magnitude. Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias. The Kiwi has been on a notable downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. While lingering around 0.58498, another considerable support target is nearby at 0.57736. Long-term outlook: bearish. A 50 bps rate cut is predicted for the meeting on Tuesday. They also revised the OCR rates lower and signalled steady winnings in the inflation battle. As with the Aussie, potential headwinds for NZD are considered due to the trade tariff issues between China and the United States. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut on Wednesday. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. USD/CAD has finally exceeded the key resistance at 1.39468. While the new target in the meanwhile is 1.41058, let's see what happens around the former area. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.34197. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with STIR markets indicating a 67% chance of a 25 bps cut and a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this improve. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes - the opposite is true. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the October CPI came in weak at 0.6% (another poor result, as for the September data). Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF keeps rising steadily towards the major support level at 0.83326, while the major resistance level is at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). However, STIR markets only see a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut next month. Conclusion In summary: The US dollar remains one of the key currencies to watch, given the recent elections and Trump's potential to affect trade relations with the likes of Australia and New Zealand. The NZD interest rate decision is the main high-impact economic event this week. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain largely unchanged from the last few months. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
EUR/JPY - Trade idea for the upcoming weekWhy did I choose this trade? Trend Analysis and Bias: -On the 4-hour (4H) chart, the price is in a downward correction but approaching a significant support area (Buy Zone) near 159.274, where I expect buyers to take control. -My bias for the upcoming week is bullish, based on the overall market structure and key technical confirmations. Key Structures and Confirmations: -Break of Structure (BOS): The price has shown bullish strength by breaking key resistance levels multiple times in the past, confirming that buyers are dominant. -Change of Character (CHoCH): After forming my Buy Zone, a clear CHoCH upwards occurred, providing another strong signal of buyer strength. -Liquidity Grab: There is significant liquidity just above my Buy Zone, which has already been filled. This is another strong indication that the price could reverse upward from this zone. -Fibonacci Confluence: I used the Fibonacci retracement tool to refine my Buy Zone. The Buy Zone aligns with the premium Fibonacci range, adding more confidence to the validity of this level. Additionally, I always draw Fibonacci from an area of accumulation that leads to a break of structure. In this case, the accumulation area aligns perfectly with the Buy Zone, making it even stronger. Volume and Imbalance: The previous strong imbalance candle (IMB) shows that the market might retrace upward to fill this gap, further supporting my bullish outlook. Psychological and Technical Levels: The price is approaching the 159.000 level, a psychologically significant number that often acts as a magnet for buyers and sellers. This level aligns closely with my Buy Zone, increasing the probability of a bullish reversal. Trade Plan Entry (Buy): 159.300, slightly above the Buy Zone, to capture the expected bullish reversal. Stop Loss: 158.800, placed below the Buy Zone and the most recent swing low to avoid potential stop hunts. Take Profit (TP): TP1: 161.000 – The nearest resistance level, where price could encounter selling pressure. TP2: 162.000 – A key resistance zone, ideal if bullish momentum continues strongly. Why do I anticipate this move? The Buy Zone is a strong support area, confirmed by Fibonacci confluence, bullish CHoCH, and prior liquidity being filled. The Fibonacci is drawn from an accumulation zone that led to a structure break, further reinforcing the Buy Zone’s significance. My bullish bias for the week aligns with these technical confirmations, suggesting that buyers will likely regain control at this level. A combination of liquidity grab, CHoCH, BOS, and imbalance zones adds additional layers of confidence to this trade idea. Disclaimer: This is solely a trading idea based on my personal analysis, knowledge, and thought process. This is NOT financial advice. Please conduct your own research and implement proper risk management. Trading carries significant risks, and you should never risk more than you can afford to lose. Tilen Safaric
Long
by Safaric
4
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2728 and a gap below at 2703. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2728 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2728 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2743 POTENTIALLY 2759 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2759 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2772 POTENTIALLY 2787 BEARISH TARGETS 2703 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2703 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 2684 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2684 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 2657 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2657 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 2638 SWING RANGE 2638 - 2620 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
21
GOLD DAILY CHART UPDATEHey Everyone, Please see our updated daily chart idea that we updated last week. This chart is playing out perfectly, as we had the support test at 2560 weighted level with no ema5 cross confirming support for the rejection and bounce like we analysed. This followed with the bullish target gap at 2629 being hit with a cross and lock opening 2686. 2686 was hit perfectly completing this range. We now have candle body close above 2686 leaving a gap above at 2760 but ema5 cross and lock will further confirm this. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas. Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops like this, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups. Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
7
WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone, This is an update on the weekly chart idea we have been tracking for over a month now. This chart allowed us to project the long term corrections and direction. We were able to track our bullish targets until no ema5 lock to confirm rejection into the retracement range below for the correction. We have been suggesting over the last few weeks that we will be looking for the channel top and the retracement range to provide the support for a reaction. We also stated that we have a body close below the retracement range opening the swing range but will need ema5 cross and lock to further confirm this. No lock below confirmed the rejection. The new weekly candle this week also had the ema5 detachment to the top, which followed with the correction above to re-attach and now heading towards the 2729 axis target once again. Overall the channel top provided the support like we analysed. Although we saw candle body closes below the channel there was no ema5 break into the channel, which allowed us to identify the fake-out and confirm the support. This is the beauty of our Gold channels, which we draw in our unique way, using averages rather than the price. This enables us to identify fake-outs and breakouts clearly, as minimal noise in the way our channels are drawn. We will track the movement down, inline with our plans to buy dips, using our smaller time-frames, keeping in mind the long range gaps for the future. We will continue to track the movement down and trade the bounces up, inline with our plans to buy dips, using our smaller time-frames, keeping in mind the long range gaps above for the future.. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
7
GOLD ROUTE MAP MARKET REVIEWHey Everyone, A smashing finish to the week with our 1H chart idea playing out to perfection completing all our targets. After completing targets and updating throughout the week, yesterday we finished with a cross and lock above 2649 leaving a gap target open to 2678. - This target was hit today completing this chart idea and more . 4H CHART UPDATE Our 4H chart idea also completed all targets this week, with each level giving us cross and lock confirmation with plenty of time to get in for the action. We will now come back Sunday with our updated Multi time-frame analysis, Gold route map and trading plans for the week ahead. Have a smashing weekend!! And once again, thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
16