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Tradingideas
NVIDIA: Large MovesOverview
My first two publications on this idea were removed and I was banned for a day so let's try this out again:
... I finally gave in and started looking into NASDAQ:NVDA and I'm glad I did. If I was going to comfortably invest in derivatives or shares of the tech company, I needed to perform a full evaluation and determine pragmatic price targets.
Price Projections
I have two macro projections and one micro projection that I would like to share with you. On the 1D chart I've established two Fibonacci retracements: one representing uptrend (green) and the other representing a downtrend (red).
At the current moment of this publication, an ascending triangle is beginning to form on the hourly and daily charts. This leads me to believe that the markets haven't had their fill yet and that NVDA is most likely gearing up for another rally. If this breakout does occur, I believe that a price target of $750 is reasonable as this value rests around the 161.8% Fib level.
For my second macro projection: a correction to the low $300s, or even mid $200s, is a reality as both of these values rest around or near a 50% or 61.8% Fib retracement level. The market does not appear to feel bearish on NVIDIA and a correction like this would require the current ascending triangle to become invalid which is unlikely without an external catalyst -- which is most definitely in existence. I explain this concept in more detail later in this article; you can find it under "NVIDIA Outsourcing."
And finally, for those of us that want to make all the short and medium-term trades in-between, I've attached a copy of my projections within the ascending triangle and attempted to match them to the market's sentiments. This led me to project a double bottom within the current pattern. There is a possible second ascending triangle forming at the moment so I am remaining cognizant of significant support around the $470-480 range in the chance that this causes an invalid double-top (M pattern) and a potentially earlier breakout.
About the CEO
Jensen Huang is the CEO and President of NVIDIA and has held his title since 1993 when he first co-founded the company. He has a Master of Science in Engineering from Stanford University and, from what I've seen in a couple of his interviews, is very intelligent and self-aware. I'd like to regard him as a more stable version of Elon Musk or Steve Jobs.
NVIDIA Outsourcing
The impression I received during my research is that a lot of the semiconductor chips used in NVIDIA's A.I. projects are sourced from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). As you probably already guessed, TSMC is located in Taiwan. The reason I believe that this can be problematic for the company is because, as of late, China has become more outspokenly aggressive towards Taiwan whom it believes it holds sovereignty over. Should China choose to invade the nation I believe this will result in a choke on NVIDIA's production which -- on top of market reactivity -- will drive the share prices downward.
To touch on another geopolitical issue very briefly, Huang has made it clear that they supply China with limited-capacity chips to uphold National Security concerns in regards to artificial intelligence. This could very well serve as a motivator for China to want to gain control of TSMC as it would then obtain an advantage over NVIDIA: "give us fully capable chips or else." This is just my opinion and I came to this conclusion from my own research and from my limited knowledge on human psychology.
Second red flag for outsourcing, TSMC requires the use of a specific technology that is only delivered by a Dutch company called Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography (ASML). I won't dive into the full details but their technology has yet to be reverse-engineered or produced at the same efficiency. ASML provides TSMC the ability to create an end product for NVIDIA. I think it goes without saying, that if NVIDIA does not figure out how to create an equally efficient manufacturing technology, or at least close to, then if ASML one day decides to stop providing said technology -- a market crash will occur for NVIDIA.
Fundamental Analysis
Time for the dry stuff. According to NVIDIA's Q3 Earnings Call, the following data is assumed to be true:
Current Ratio (current assets/current liabilities) = 3.59 --> a 2% increase since January 29, 2023.
Cash On-Hand has increased by 62.85% since January 29, 2023.
Total Assets outpaced Total Liabilities with assets increasing by 31.49% while liabilities increased by 9.44% since January 2023.
Retained Earnings increased by 100.18% since January 29, 2023.
Long-Term Debt decreased by 12.84% since January 29, 2023.
Other notes:
NVIDIA is presently undergoing several class action lawsuits filed in the United States District Court for Northern District of California, for the District of Delaware, and in the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware. The lawsuits claim that certain NVIDIA executives made misleading statements related to channel inventory (product in between the manufacturing and reseller inventory stages) and impact of cryptocurrency mining on GPU demand between May 2017 and Nov 2018.
There has been significant insider liquidation in 2023. In total, executives from NVIDIA – including Huang – have liquidated upwards of $786.8M in company shares within the calendar year. I would typically consider this a red flag but not a sign for impending declines; securing profits may be the only motivation.
NVIDIA’s Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program up to $25.24B. Approximately 800K shares ($366M) were repurchased by the company from October 30 - November 17, 2023. This coincides with a relatively large rally followed by a 10% dip immediately after the Q3 Earnings Call.
GOLD 4H ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN UPDATEHey Everyone,
]This is our 4H chart idea from Sunday also played out perfectly smashing all our Bullish targets with our final bullish target at 2080 now complete!!!!!
BULLISH TARGET
2042 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2033 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2042 - DONE
2052 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2052 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2065 - DONE
POTENTIALLY 2080 - DONE
We will now come back Sunday with our multi timeframe analysis, gold route map and trading plan for the coming week. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 1H ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another fantastic finish to the week smashing all our Bullish targets and strategically taking our buys from every dip.
Yesterday we stated after completing 2044 and 2048 targets, that we will be looking for ema5 to lock above 2048 to open 2055 and potentially 2064.
- We got the cross and lock above 2048 confirming 2055 and 2064, which were both hit today, completing our chart idea to perfection!!!
BULLISH TARGETS
2036 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2036 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2044 - DONE
2048 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2048 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2055 - DONE
POTENTIALLY 2064 - DONE
We will now come back Sunday with our multi timeframe analysis, gold route map and trading plan for the coming week. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 1H ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN UPDATEHey Everyone,
Piptastic finish to the month with our Bullish targets complete!!!
As stated yesterday, market is ranging and leaving gaps both ways but we remain Bullish and will continue to buy dips.
- This played out perfectly with ema5 cross and lock above 2036 opening 2044 and 2048 - Both these targets were hit to completing this range.
We will now look for ema5 to lock above 2048 to open 2055 and potentially 2064. Failure to lock above will see price retrace back to support, keeping in mind the gaps below.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we share every week in the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGETS
2036 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2036 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2044 - DONE
2048 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2048 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2055
POTENTIALLY 2064
BEARISH TARGETS
2030 - DONE
2025 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2030 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2016 - 2010
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 1H ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN UPDATEHey Everyone,
Once again we saw price range between the two structures. The retracement range is holding well with another retest bounce from the retracement range into 2036.
As part of our plans, we used the support areas to buy dips perfectly inline with the levels. As stated yesterday market is ranging and leaving gaps both ways with 2020, 2016 bearish gaps open below and 2044 Bullish target open above.
We remain Bullish and will continue to buy dips using the gaps below to ride up from support zones confirmed with our algo.
We just need to keep in mind the range has now extended into the swing range when managing exposure against the range when buying dips and taking exits level to level rather than holding all the way.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we share every week in the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGETS
2036 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2036 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2044
2048
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2048 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2055
BEARISH TARGETS
2030 - DONE
2025 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2030 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2016 - 2010
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 1H ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN UPDATEHey Everyone,
Yesterday we stated that Ema5 has locked below 2030 leaving the swing range now open but ultimately we are looking for the 2036 retest again with a cross and lock to open the range above.
- This played out once again with the bounce from the retracement range into 2036. We also now have ema5 cross and lock above 2036 opening the range above.
Market is ranging and leaving gaps both ways. We remain Bullish and will continue to buy dips using the gaps below to ride from support zones and then confirmed with our algo.
We just need to keep in mind the range has now extended into the swing range when managing exposure against the range when buying dips.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we share every week in the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGETS
2036 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2036 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2044
2048
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2048 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2055
BEARISH TARGETS
2030 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2030 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2016 - 2010
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 1H ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN UPDATEHey Everyone,
And off to a piptastic start with our chart idea playing out, as analysed.
Yesterday we stated that we have resistance at 2036 for a immediate bullish target and 2030, as our bearish level target. Both these levels were hit and complete today bouncing between the levels until one broke.
We are now seeing price at the retracement level giving plenty of bounces inline with our plans to buy dips. Ema5 has also locked below 2030 leaving the swing range now open. Although we are likely to see each level before the swing range (2025, 2020) to provide bounces.
We just have to now keep in mind the potential for further dips but ultimately we are looking for the 2036 retest again with a cross and lock to open the range above. We just need to keep in mind the range has now extended into the swing range when managing exposure against the range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we share every week in the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGETS
2036 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2036 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2044
2048
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2048 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2055
BEARISH TARGETS
2030 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2030 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2016 - 2010
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
$RY out of correction?A good earning report can pop the price of TSX:RY to the upper channel line.
3 reasons why?
1. A decisive move about the parallel channels line will signal the end of the correction marked by me on the chart as the abc correction.
2. But if the report is negative or more precisely the market view of the report is negative we could stay in the correction for longer.
3. MACD histogram is positive.
That's a stock that I will watch closely.
What do you think? Bull or bear here?
Legal Disclaimer: The information presented in this analysis is solely for informational and educational purposes only and does not serve as financial advice.
USDJPY Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
USDJPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 150.42 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 150.59
About Used Indicators:
The average true range ATR plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDJPY: Asian foreign exchange weakens, dollar rises, will interMost Asian currencies fell on Monday, while the dollar regained momentum as investors were cautious ahead of a series of signals on interest rates and inflation in the US this weekend.
Anticipation of some regional economic signals - particularly data on Japanese inflation and China's purchasing managers index - also has traders nervous, especially amid anxiety. Concerns are growing about slowing growth in the region's largest economies.
Japanese Yen fluctuates above 150, waiting for CPI data
The yen fluctuated slightly on Monday but remained just above 150 per dollar and remained near a three-month low.
This week focuses mainly on Japan's consumer price index (CPI) data for January, due on Tuesday. The data is expected to show core inflation is within the Bank of Japan's annual target of 2%, giving the central bank even less incentive to start tightening policy. books strongly.
This notion has put pressure on the yen in recent months, especially as US interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer. However, further declines in the yen were limited by the risk of government intervention, as levels above 150 have attracted intervention in the past.
PCE inflation, Fed signals are paying attention
The dollar index and dollar index futures both rose 0.1% in Asian trading on Monday, after posting their first weekly losses of 2024.
However, the greenback remains near a three-month high as many Federal Reserve officials warn that the bank is in no hurry to start cutting interest rates soon, especially as inflation remains subdued. High.
PCE price index data - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - is expected to provide further inflation signals this week. Several other Fed officials are also expected to speak this week and may reiterate the outlook for higher interest rates for longer.
GOLD 1H ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEADHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between support 2030 Goldturn and resistance at 2036 Goldlturn for a test and break on either Goldturn to confirm the next range.
We have resistance at 2036 for a immediate bullish target and 2030, as our bearish level target. We will see price range between these levels until one breaks and locks to confirm the next level.
A bearish test to support at 2030 and a break and lock below this level will open the swing range. A cross and lock below the swing range will open the support structure. However, support above here and we are likely to see a test at 2036, 2044 and 2048 Goldturn.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we share every week in the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGETS
2036
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2036 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2044
2048
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2048 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2055
BEARISH TARGETS
2030
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2030 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2016 - 2010
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 4H ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK AHEADHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price break 2033 but EMA5 is lagging behind. Although we have open target now at 2042, we will need to see ema5 cross and lock above 2033 to open the full range 2042 and 2052.
We have support now at 2033 and our bearish retracement zone at 2022. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock below 2022 to open the swing range.
However, support above the retracement range will likely provide the bounce to retest 2033 and 2042.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we share every week in the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2042
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2033 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2042
2052
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2052 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2065
POTENTIALLY 2080
BEARISH TARGETS
2033
2022
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2022 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
1999 - 1992
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX