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USDJPY / TRYING TO REACH DEMAND ZONE AFTER SUPPLY ZONE / 4HUSDJPY / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Current Price Action: The prices are trying to reach a demand zone between 150.210 and 148.835. A demand zone typically indicates an area where buying interest is expected to increase, potentially causing prices to rise if they stabilize here. Upward outlook: If prices remain and stabilize inside or above this demand zone, it suggests the possibility of an upward move. This would be a bullish indicator, pointing towards an increase in price to the next supply zone between 152.763 and 153.914. Supply zones are areas where selling pressure may occur, potentially leading to price resistance. Downward outlook : If the prices break below the current demand zone (148.835), this would imply bearish pressure, suggesting a possible further decline. The next target in this scenario is another demand zone between 146.422 and 145.917, where buyers might step in again. Overall Market Sentiment: Despite the potential for a decline if the current demand zone is broken, the analysis notes that prices are currently under bullish pressure. This means the overall market trend is upward, but staying above the key demand zone is crucial for this bullish outlook to remain valid.
Long
by ArinaKarayi
XAUUSD / UNDER CHOICE PRESIDENT AMRICAN / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Market Influence of Election Results: The text suggests that if Donald Trump wins the election, it could impact the financial markets by increasing the price of gold and decreasing the value of the dollar. This reflects the common market reaction where political uncertainty or risk can lead to a “flight to safety” in assets like gold. Current Gold Price Levels: • The current price range mentioned is between $2,728 and $2,709. This is described as a support or stabilization zone, where prices are attempting to maintain a level above $2,709. • If the price stabilizes above this range, there’s an expectation that gold could continue to rise, aiming for a “Fair Value Gap” (FVG) between $2,756 and $2,772. Above this FVG, there is a “supply zone” where upward momentum might slow or reverse due to selling pressure. Downward Scenario: • If the gold price falls below $2,709, it suggests a possible decline toward the “demand zone” between $2,688 and $2,672. A demand zone indicates a level where buyers might come in, potentially stopping or reversing the price decline. Overall Trend: • The text concludes that gold is trading under upward pressure, meaning that current market sentiment is biased toward price increases. This could be influenced by factors like inflation concerns, economic instability, or political uncertainties tied to the election.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArinaKarayi
BITCOIN / UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE / 4HBITCOIN / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Demand Zone (Support): 67.435 - 66.457 • Above this Zone: As long as the price remains above this range, it suggests a higher likelihood of a bullish trend, with potential to move upward. • Potential Target on Stability Above: If prices stabilize above this demand zone, it may attract buyers, leading to an upward movement toward the supply zone. Supply Zone (Resistance): 71.484 - 72.916 • Upside Potential: Should the price continue to rise after holding above the demand zone, it may reach this supply zone. This area could act as resistance, where selling pressure might increase. Downside Risk and Confirmation of Downtrend: • Break Below Demand Zone (66.457): If prices fall below the demand zone, it could signal the start of a decline, with a potential target around 65.320. • Break Below 65.320: A drop below this level would further confirm a downtrend, suggesting stronger bearish sentiment. Trend Confirmation: • Uptrend: Stabilizing and maintaining price levels above the demand zone supports a bullish scenario. • Downtrend: Breaking below 65.320 would confirm a downtrend, indicating a bearish
Long
by ArinaKarayi
1
NAS100USD / UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE / 4H NAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Current Status: Prices have increased and hit a target with a +175 pip profit. Prices are now approaching a demand zone (an area where buying interest might be strong enough to prevent further price declines). Demand Zone Stabilization: If prices stabilize in this demand zone, there is potential for further upward movement towards a supply zone (an area where selling interest could cause a reversal). Key Supply and Demand Zones: Supply Zone: Between 20,188 and 20,300. If prices rise and break through this level, it may confirm an uptrend and lead to further gains ,Primary Demand Zone , Between 19,963 and 19,735. A break below this level would suggest a downward movement, potentially heading towards the next demand zone , Secondary Demand Zone , Between 19,515 and 19,366. This is likely the next area where prices could find support if they fall through the primary demand zone. Overall Market Trend: The market is currently under upward pressure, indicating a bullish bias. For a confirmed uptrend, prices need to break through the supply zone (20,188-20,300). For a confirmed downtrend, prices would need to break below the demand zone (19,963-19,735).
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by ArinaKarayi
5
XAUUSD Pullback Set-Up Demand at 2722 Targeting 2700The XAUUSD (gold) market has a strong initial demand zone at 2722-17 , where a pullback is expected before facing resistance at 2747-53 , which is forecast as a significant supply level. Our major aim is 2700 , which corresponds to a robust daily demand zone. Geopolitical developments are boosting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Heightened tensions in the Middle East, as well as the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia , have added to risk aversion, attracting investors to gold. Furthermore, the forthcoming presidential election in the United States on November 5 creates uncertainties about prospective fiscal policy moves. Historical trends demonstrate that election outcomes frequently cause volatility in gold as investors hedge against policy changes. These factors are strengthening demand at important levels, which aids our understanding of potential retracements and target zones. If you find this analysis helpful, please consider boosting this idea. Thanks!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by bluechipfx
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Another great day on the charts today with our levels being respected, allowing us to buy dips inline with our plans. Same as yesterday, we got the bearish target re-test again at 2733, which failed to cross and lock below confirming the support. This gave us another perfect bounce inline with our plans to buy dips and just fell short of the bullish target at 2751 by a few pips. However, we secured our 40 pips clean. The full gap remains open and therefore we will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2751 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2751 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2768 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2768 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2782 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2782 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2799 BEARISH TARGETS 2733 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2733 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2717 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2717 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE RANGE SWING RANGE 2705 - 2692 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
13
USOIL / TRADING IN SENSITIVE AREA / 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Current Price Context: • The price is currently trading within a supply zone defined by the levels of 72.30 and 71.47. This suggests that there is significant selling pressure in this range. Scenario Analysis: • First Scenario (Bullish): If the price breaks above the supply zone (specifically, if a 4-hour candle opens above this range), it is expected to rise towards a higher supply zone between 75.37 and 76.16. This indicates a bullish outlook if the resistance level is overcome. • Second Scenario (Bearish): If the price breaks below the supply zone, it suggests a decline towards a demand line around 69.66, with potential further drops to levels at 68.12 and 66.78. This indicates a bearish outlook if the support level is broken. General Market Condition: • The overall sentiment is described as being under “upward pressure,” suggesting that, despite the current resistance, there is a prevailing bullish trend or sentiment in the market.
TVC:USOILLong
by ArinaKarayi
EURUSD / TRADING UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE / 4HEURUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Current Movement to Supply Zone (1.092 - 1.095): • Prices are attempting to reach a supply zone between 1.092 and 1.095. This level acts as potential resistance where sellers may enter, potentially halting further upward movement. Potential Decline to Demand Zone (1.085 - 1.083): • If prices face resistance near 1.092 - 1.095, they might pull back to the demand zone between 1.085 and 1.083. This demand zone represents a level of support where buyers might enter, stabilizing prices. Outlook if Prices Stabilize Above 1.085 - 1.083: • Stabilization above this demand zone suggests an opportunity for prices to increase. The next target is another supply zone between 1.101 and 1.104, which could act as a new resistance level. Risk of a Decline if Demand Zone is Broken: • If prices break below the demand zone (1.085 - 1.083), it signals potential for further decline to a lower demand zone (1.079 - 1.076). A break below 1.076 would likely confirm a downtrend. Trend Confirmation Based on Zone Breaks: • Breaking the supply zone (1.092 - 1.095) would signal an uptrend, while a break below the demand zone (1.079 - 1.076) would confirm a downtrend.
Long
by ArinaKarayi
Gold stays strong amid the US election and Fed rate cuts.Early on Tuesday morning, the latest developments surrounding the U.S. presidential election showed that former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in each of the seven swing states, although the margin is very narrow. A survey by AtlasIntel revealed that Trump holds the widest margin in Arizona, with 52.3% compared to Harris's 45.8%. This update seems to have helped the U.S. dollar halt its decline, keeping gold prices in USD at a low level. Furthermore, expectations of a less aggressive easing cycle from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) have also supported the dollar. Personal opinion: Gold prices remain steady, fluctuating between $2,730 and $2,748, with no catalyst pushing them outside this range. While the RSI still indicates bullish momentum, buying pressure seems to be easing. For continued gains, gold buyers need to reclaim the key $2,750 level, which could lead to a target of $2,790. However, a daily close below $2,750 could signal further weakness. Pay attention to the price range: Buy Zone: 2715 - 2713 SL: 2708 Sell Zone: 2747 - 2749 SL: 2754 Sell Zone: 2761 - 2763 SL: 2768
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chana-Trading
1
Market News Report - 03 November 2024While it was a mild past week, the USD was pretty strong again. Other bullish currencies include the euro and the British pound. Speaking of the latter, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate soon. Then, we had the most anticipated new Federal Funds on Thursday and the US elections. All of this and more will be covered in our market report of the major forex pairs. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. Despite a recent 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, the Fed may not need to cut rates as aggressively going forward. This is partly due to recent positive job numbers and earnings data that exceeded expectations. While the NFP data last Friday was negative, the drop was due to the impact of US hurricanes and labour disputes with Boeing. The US elections on Tuesday may provide a notable boost for USD if Trump wins. However, we also have the new Fed interest rate two days later, where a cut is anticipated. So, the bias remains weak bearish in the near term. The Dixie continues to head north after weeks of ranging around the key support area at 100.157. We have spoken several times about a potential technically-driven retracement (despite the bearish fundamentals). Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. While there is no extreme dovish pricing anymore (thanks to some economic improvements), the Fed is still expected to cut the interest. Labour data will be another key driver in the long term for USD. However, the upcoming US elections could be a huge redeeming factor for the greenback if Trump wins (who is highly favoured against Harris). Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. The short-term interest rate (STIR) markets were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate last month. However, they remain data-dependent on what to do in the future (although they are quite concerned about slow growth). Short-term interest rate markets have indicated an 84% chance of a rate cut in December. Also, we have seen weaker economic data across various European nations (although the Eurozone Gross Domestic/GDP growth was above expectations). The euro has finally made its bearish intention known on the charts, breaking the key support at 1.07774 (but only just). We need to see how this level reacts over the coming weeks- so it's not out of the question. Meanwhile, the key resistance remains far higher at 1.12757. Long-term outlook: bearish. The latest rate cut and the avoidance of indicating a clear future move for the December meeting are among the key down-trending factors. However, any improvements in economic data (according to the ECB) would be a turnaround. Higher German inflation and stronger European growth in Q3 have saved the euro from a downward spiral. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its recent meeting. Still, the language indicates they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long” and the "gradual need" for decreasing the rate. STIR pricing indicates an 86% chance of a cut on Thursday As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Not long ago, Governor Bailey hinted that "aggressive rate cuts" were possible if inflation went lower. We mentioned that the current retracement may be the start of a more serious bear move. So far, that's what the pound is experiencing. The nearest key support is at 1.26156, while the resistance target is 1.34343. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality due to the points discussed earlier. However, a new development is the UK budget, which has been seen as a reason for the central to proceed slowly in this regard. As usual, data remains essential going forward with GBP. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. Unlike in July this year, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept the interest rate the same last week. So, our outlook remains largely unchanged. However, a rise in USD/JPY could raise the possibility of the BoJ's intervention. ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted not long ago that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory). As recently as 31 October 2024, Ueda also stated that hikes would continue if the central bank's projections were realised. The 139.579 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 25 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement. The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes, with some promising developments at times. Finally, recent positive unemployment and labour data gives a base case for a hold in the RBA interest rate on Monday this week (priced at 97% probability according to STIR markets). After failing to break the 0.69426 resistance level several times, the Aussie has retraced noticeably from this area. While this market looked bullish, this pullback does surprisingly indicate otherwise. Still, we are quite far from the major support level at 0.63484, but consider the interesting dynamic with the opposite fundamentals of AUD and USD. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. While the RBA hasn’t ruled anything out, the central bank isn’t explicitly suggesting rate hikes in the future. It’s crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, meaning it is exposed to the economies and geopolitics of other countries, especially China. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps recently and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude. Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias. Due to the rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63790. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498. Long-term outlook: bearish. The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' They also revised the OCR rates lower and signalled steady winnings in the inflation battle. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) unsurprisingly delivered a 50 bps cut on Wednesday. Further cuts remain on the cards, with the long-term target being 3%. The BoC is signalling victory over inflation due to the cuts, with Governor Macklem suggesting that they would probably cut further until they achieve the optimal low inflation. In their words, 'stick the landing.' Overall, the bias remains bearish - expect strong rallies in CAD to find sellers. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is the weakest on the charts. USD/CAD has finally touched the key resistance at 1.39468. This week will determine whether this area will be breached or not. Meanwhile, the key support lies far down at 1.33586. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. The Bank of Canada has recognised the lower economic growth, and Macklem wishes to see this increase. Furthermore, any big misses in upcoming GBP, inflation, and labour data would send CAD lower. Still, encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement would save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25 bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the September CPI came in weak at 0.8%, against the expected year-on-year 1.1%. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF has just broken out of the range (but only just) discussed in our last few reports. While remaining largely bearish, this market could return closer to the major support level at 0.83326 or climb its way to the higher major resistance level at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. The SNB aims for neutral rates between 0 and 0.50% (currently at 1%). However, STIR markets only see a 20% chance of a 50 bps cut next month. Conclusion In summary: The USD will certainly be the talk of the town this week due to the upcoming elections and Fed rates. Other noteworthy economic releases include the new interest rates for the British pound and the Australian dollar. Our short and long-term fundamental outlooks remain unchanged from the last few weeks. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Great start to the week with our 1H chart idea already playing out. We started the week with a gap above at 2751 and a gap below at 2733. We stated that we will see price lay between these two levels and a cross and lock on either levels will confirm the next range. We got the bearish target at 2733 hit, which gave us the perfect bounce inline with our plans to buy dips. The full gap remains open and therefore we will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2751 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2751 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2768 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2768 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2782 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2782 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2799 BEARISH TARGETS 2733 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2733 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2717 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2717 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE RANGE SWING RANGE 2705 - 2692 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
11
XAUUSD / OVERALL UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Current Market Movement: • Prices initially dropped to a buy zone at around $2,728, where a buying opportunity was identified. • After reaching this zone, the price increased, securing a profit of 145 pips. Price Retesting and Stabilizing: • The price is currently retesting the $2,728 level. • If the price stabilizes above this level, it indicates potential upward momentum. Upward Targets: • If prices hold above $2,728, the next target range is a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $2,756 and $2,772. This gap suggests potential for further gains if it’s reached and surpassed. Demand zone and Downward Risks: • If prices break below $2,728, they may fall to $2,710. • Should prices decline below $2,710, further drops are expected, with a potential support or “demand zone” between $2,688 and $2,672. Overall Market Sentiment: • Despite potential downward corrections, the market remains under bullish pressure, indicating that the primary trend remains upward for now.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArinaKarayi
Gold rebounds ahead of U.S. elections, market cautious on Fed.Gold prices have halted their adjustment from the record high of $2,790 set on Friday, as the U.S. dollar faces strong selling pressure. The gap opened lower following the latest poll results regarding the U.S. elections, which showed Kamala Harris surpassing Donald Trump in Iowa, marking a significant shift. The presidential race between the two candidates is intensifying, with Americans set to vote on Tuesday. Additionally, U.S. Treasury yields are also declining due to market caution and expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, which has supported non-yielding gold prices. Personal opinion: Gold prices are heavily influenced by the U.S. elections and the economic situation. Kamala Harris leading in the polls might make investors feel more optimistic. The drop in bond yields also indicates that people are looking for safe places to invest, increasing gold's appeal during this uncertain time. Pay attention to price levels: Buy zone: 2727 - 2725 SL: 2720 Sell Zone: 2747 - 2749 SL: 2754 Sell Zone: 2760 - 2762 SL: 2767
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chana-Trading