KOG's RED BOXES - GOLDRed Boxes:
Break above 2755 for 2762, 2768, 2780
Break below 2742 for 2732, 2720, 2709
Many of us sit and wait for the perfect entry, I can tell you, unless you're scalping, this hardly ever happens. The key to get an entry is identifying your target region first! Once you have identified that target region, then start looking not for a precise entry, but a region or a zone you want to be testing your entry in. The skill is not getting in too early, and if you get in too late, you're usually going to be the wrong side of the market. So, use the bias and the red boxes, bullish/bearish above/below. Most new traders struggle with basic support and resistance or identifying zones; hence they’ll usually enter the market at the wrong time and place. This is where red boxes are really helpful, you can use them to identify key regions if you’re scalping or use the higher or lower ones for day trading and managing trades in-between.
KOG’s Red boxes are part of our strategy and are added to our targets to further fine tune our entries and exits. We also use them combined with our hotspots and Excalibur/LiTE targets to keep us in the right direction of the markets, allowing us to trade between the levels, scalp in ranges or in low volume periods as well as identify possible turning points on the pair we’re trading.
We’ve been using these now for a few years and they have proven to work extremely well when combined with our other strategy as well as a standalone strategy in itself, once you have experience. You need to have a plan and you will need to have basic knowledge of price action, you can add MA’s, indicators of your choice, and use these with your own strategy to limit your drawdown and identify when you may be in the wrong side of the market.
You will notice the boxes, just like usual support and resistance will give RIPs. Keep an eye on KOG’s bias of the day together with the targets as well as the analysis we share on the KOG Report updates. This will help you to make a plan for the day, then add the red boxes to your charts and hopefully you’ll notice a difference in your trading.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Tradingindicator
AFFIRM HOLDINGS (AFRM) Short Trade Setup and AnalysisAFFIRM HOLDINGS (AFRM) on the 15-minute timeframe:
Trade Summary
Position: Short Trade
Entry: $46.84
Stop Loss: $48.47
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $44.84 (Hit)
TP2: $41.59 (Hit)
TP3: $38.34 (Pending)
TP4: $36.33 (Pending)
Technical Analysis
The price action for AFRM has shown a steady downtrend in alignment with the bearish market sentiment. The position was initiated near the entry point of $46.84, with the Risological dotted trendline indicating a continuous bearish pressure, thus validating the short entry.
With TP1 and TP2 already achieved, the price is moving in line with the projected downtrend. The decreasing volume and proximity to the trailing targets suggest that there is further room for downside potential, aiming towards TP3 and TP4.
Market Insights
Volume: 5.59M (below the 30-day average of 9.08M), indicating moderate sell-off interest.
Key Levels:
Day’s Range: $40.63 - $42.47, which reflects a steady decline.
52-Week Range: $16.50 - $52.48, showing that the stock is approaching the lower side of its yearly range.
Upcoming Earnings: In 12 days, which could further influence AFRM’s trend based on market expectations.
This technical setup aligns with the broader market indicators and the prevailing bearish momentum in AFRM. Further downside potential remains viable as the trend continues.
BDL Short-Term Long Trade on 15m Time Frame: TP4 ReachedWe initiated a short-term long trade setup in Bharat Dynamics LTD (BDL) on the 8th of October at 9:45 am, entering at 1114.45 based on the bullish signal from the Risological Swing Trader. The price action was strong, and we successfully reached TP4 (1225.90) by the 11th of October at 9:15 am.
Target Points Achieved:
TP 1: 1135.70
TP 2: 1170.15
TP 3: 1204.60
TP 4: 1225.90
Stop Loss (SL): 1097.20
This trade exemplifies the power of the Risological Swing Trader in identifying profitable setups and executing with precision. We’ll continue leveraging this strategy for future market moves.
PARA Paramount Global Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PARA Paramount Global prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 11usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-9-20,
for a premium of approximately $0.36.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
THE KOG REPORT - CPI/FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – CPI/FOMC
This is our view for CPI/FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
In all honesty, we would prefer to let them move the markets today into the level they want, then look for a set up to get in on the retracement tomorrow. At the moment, due to CPI and FOMC being on the same day, it’s likely to be an extremely aggressive move. We’re going to put the KOG Report plan to one side for now, as the whipsaw can cause spikes and key levels turn to extreme levels and we’ve taken what we needed on gold for now.
We have the range formed now and accumulation under way with sentiment standing at neutral. We have key level support below at the 2303-5 region, which if tapped could give a bounce upside, unless broken into the first key level 2335 which was on the KOG Report and then the extension of the move into the 2347-55 region. This is where there may be an opportunity to long into, or, on the flip capture the move downside into the immediate support levels, potentially even lower!
If you look at the illustration on the chart with path, we have highlighted the extreme level above sitting at 2385-90, this for us is on the break and would be ideal. If they take it there, this is the level we want to watch and is sticking out to us as a potential curveball, so please be careful!
On the flip, they take this down, we’ll sit back and wait, shorting with volume is a bad idea as the intermediate swings can go against you. So, we’ve highlighted the key levels below that have potential for a reaction in price.
We’ve put this report together this time to show you what the market can be capable of if they really want to move it. The circles are our hotspots, together with our targets they will help us navigate the move. They will want to slip new traders up and get them trading with the candles, this is a recipe for disaster, on days like this quick money trades are not an option. It’s either above or below for us on this occasion, otherwise we’ll come back to gold tomorrow and make our move.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
The Fundamental Concepts of Technical IndicatorsTrading indicators are essential tools used by traders and investors to analyze price data, identify trends, and make informed decisions in financial markets. They provide valuable insights into market dynamics, helping market participants gain a competitive edge. This comprehensive explainer will delve into what trading indicators are, how they are utilized, and the differences between two prominent strategies: trend following and mean reversion. Additionally, we will explore the importance of using binary and discrete indicators together to enhance trading effectiveness.
Part 1: Understanding Trading Indicators
1.1 Definition of Trading Indicators
Trading indicators are mathematical calculations based on price, volume, or open interest data that provide graphical representations of market conditions. These calculations help traders visualize price trends, momentum, volatility, and potential reversals. Indicators serve as a supplementary layer of analysis, offering a structured and objective approach to interpreting market behavior.
1.2 Types of Trading Indicators
Trend Indicators: Identify the direction and strength of prevailing trends, such as Moving Averages (MA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Ichimoku Cloud.
Oscillators: Measure overbought and oversold conditions, such as Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic Oscillator, and Commodity Channel Index (CCI).
Volume Indicators: Assess trading volume to confirm price movements, like On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP).
Volatility Indicators: Gauge the level of price fluctuations, including Bollinger Bands and Average True Range (ATR).
Part 2: Utilizing Trading Indicators
2.1 Trend Following Strategy
Trend following is a popular trading strategy that capitalizes on the continuation of established trends. Traders using this approach seek to identify uptrends or downtrends and ride them for extended periods. Trend following indicators are ideally suited for identifying the direction of a trend and capturing profits during strong market movements.
Example of Trend Following Indicator: Fourier Smoothed Stochastic (FSTOCH)
(Indicators like the FSTOCH help traders reveal underlying trends in the market)
The Fourier Smoothed Stochastic is an advanced tool that utilizes the Stochastic Oscillator in combination with Fourier Transform analysis to identify and ride prevailing trends. By providing smoother signals, it helps traders stay on course with the established trend, allowing for more accurate entries and exits. Its ability to filter out market noise makes it an ideal choice for trend followers seeking a clearer view of market momentum, enabling them to capitalize on prolonged price movements.
2.2 Mean Reversion Strategy
Mean reversion is a counter-trend strategy that assumes prices will revert to their average or mean over time. Traders using this approach aim to profit from price reversals when an asset's price deviates significantly from its historical average. Mean reversion indicators are ideal for identifying overbought and oversold conditions and anticipating potential reversals.
Example of Mean Reversion Indicator: Bollinger Bands Percentile (BBPct)
(The BBPct indicator marks out price extremes which may lead to potential reversals)
The BBPct (Bollinger Bands Percent) is an indicator designed for mean reversion trading strategies. It utilizes Bollinger Bands to determine overbought and oversold conditions in the market. The indicator calculates the percentage of the current price's position within the Bollinger Bands' upper and lower boundaries. When the price is near the upper band, it suggests an overbought condition, indicating a potential mean reversion towards the lower band. Conversely, when the price is close to the lower band, it indicates an oversold condition, suggesting a possible mean reversion towards the upper band. Traders can use this information to identify potential reversal points and make informed decisions to capture price movements back towards the mean.
Part 3: Trend Following vs. Mean Reversion
3.1 Key Differences
Direction: Trend following aims to identify and ride established trends, while mean reversion seeks to capitalize on price reversals.
Risk Profile: Trend following strategies typically involve higher risk, as traders enter positions in the direction of the trend, which may be challenging to time accurately. Mean reversion strategies are often considered less risky as traders expect price reversals to occur relatively soon after significant deviations from the mean.
Market Conditions: Trend following tends to perform well in trending markets, while mean reversion thrives in ranging or sideways markets.
3.2 Combining Trend Following and Mean Reversion
While trend following and mean reversion strategies have distinct approaches, they can complement each other when used in confluence. Combining both strategies can provide a more comprehensive view of the market and reduce reliance on a single indicator. For example:
Confirming Trend Reversals: Mean reversion indicators can be used to confirm potential trend reversals identified by trend-following indicators, increasing the probability of successful entries and exits.
Managing Risk: Trend following indicators can help traders stay in trends longer and avoid premature exits when using mean reversion strategies.
Identifying Range-Bound Markets: Mean reversion strategies can be employed during periods of low volatility or when the market lacks a clear trend, while trend following indicators can be set aside until a new trend emerges.
Part 4: Binary and Discrete Indicators
4.1 Binary Indicators
(The Super Schaff gives out binary signals when it detects a potential change in trend)
Binary indicators provide straightforward, yes-or-no signals, indicating the presence or absence of a particular condition. Examples include Moving Average Crossovers and Super Schaff, which produce buy (long) or sell (short) signals when specific conditions are met.
4.2 Discrete Indicators
(The Volume-Trend Sentiment displays the overall implied sentiment based on volume and price action)
Discrete indicators generate signals based on a range of values or levels. These indicators offer more nuanced insights into market conditions, allowing traders to interpret the strength or weakness of signals. Examples include RSI and VTS.
Part 5: The Importance of Using Both
5.1 Diverse Perspectives
Combining binary and discrete indicators provides traders with diverse perspectives on market conditions. Binary indicators offer clear entry and exit signals, while discrete indicators offer a finer understanding of price trends and potential turning points.
5.2 Enhanced Decision-Making
Using both types of indicators helps traders make more informed and confident decisions. By cross-referencing binary and discrete signals, traders can filter out false signals and identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Conclusion:
Trading indicators play a vital role in modern financial markets, providing traders and investors with valuable insights into price trends, momentum, and market conditions. Trend following and mean reversion strategies offer distinct approaches to trading, each with its unique advantages and risk profiles. However, combining these strategies and utilizing both binary and discrete indicators can provide a comprehensive and powerful toolkit for traders seeking consistent success in the dynamic world of finance.
Check out the indicators mentioned in this post:
BTCUSD - DOWN TO TEST 16700 & SIDEWAYSBTCUSD will test support level 17500 and move sideways in months to come until there is a clear signal for pivot and breaks 25000 level.
Short trade setup on US30 , Analysis using Price action.Short trade setup building on US30 Analysis using Price action:
On chart we can see multiple descending wedges on 30m,15m. price broken Trendline of 180m wedge, the price is breaking below the Higher timeframe Channels. The overall bias is bearish as well.
Risk to Reward is 1:1
RISK DISCLAIMER
Any and all liability for risks resulting from investment transactions or other asset dispositions carried out by the customer based on information received or a market analysis is expressly excluded by Badshah.E.Alam . All the information made available here is generally provided to serve as an example only, without obligation and without specific recommendations for action. It does not constitute and cannot replace investment advice. We therefore recommend that you contact your personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments.
EUR/USD PUMP INCOMING 🔥🔸️Ticker Symbol: EUR/USD 🔸️Timeframe: 4 Hour 🔸️3X Bull Pattern 🔸️Investment Stratey: Long
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: EUR/USD is setting up for a nice push higher in the market. I really like how the price action has just recently made a higher low showing bullish momentum. You can also tell on the bottom dashboard that we now have a green key EMA crossover while our white line which represents Money Momentum is also making a higher low. Historical this pattern has resulted in an increase in EUR/USD.
4X 🟢 Bull Pattern Confirmation Requirements
✅️ Linear Regression Indicator Increasing
✅️ Money Momentum Shifting Higher
✅️ Green Dot: Key EMA Crossover to Upside
✅️ Green Middle Band: Bull Market Momentum
4X 🔴 Bear Pattern Confirmation Requirements
🔻 Linear Regression Indicator Declining
🔻 Money Momentum Shifting Lower
🔻 Red Dot: Key EMA Crossover To Downside
🔻 Red Middle Band: Bear Market Momentum
🔔 Follow for daily stock, crypto and forex technical analysis.
⚠️ Trading is risky and I understand nothing is guaranteed. Proper risk management should be in place at all times to minimize losses. Please consult a financial advisor before trading. All Inclusive Trading LLC is not a financial advisor and may not be held liable for any losses which may occur.
Moving Average | Two Profitable Ways to Use 📊
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss two efficient ways to apply the moving average(s) indicator in your trading.
Please, note that the settings for a moving average depend on many factors and can not be universal. Time frame, your style of trading and many other factors should be taken into consideration when you define the settings.
1️⃣The first very efficient way to apply moving average is to consider that to be a strong support/resistance. Such a method is appropriate for trend-following traders.
A very important condition to note applying MA as the structure is that the market should be trending: it should trade in a bullish or bearish trend, not in sideways.
📍In a bullish trend, a moving average will provide you a relatively safe point for buying the market after a pullback. Quite often after a test of MA, the price tends to bounce all the way up to a current high and even go higher to the next highs.
📍In a bearish trend, a moving average will serve as a strong resistance and quite often will indicate a completion point of a retracement leg after a strong bearish impulse.
2️⃣The second way to apply moving average is to apply a combination of 2 MAs with different settings (one with a bigger and one with a smaller length). Such a method is usually applied by counter-trend traders.
And again, a very important condition to note, is that if you want to apply this method efficiently, remember that the market must be trending, it should be bullish or bearish.
Your task will be to track an intersection of two MAs.
📍In a bullish trend, a crossing of two moving averages with a high probability will indicate a trend violation and initiation of a new bearish trend.
Such a signal usually serves as a trigger to open a short position.
📍In a bearish trend, a crossing of two moving averages will signify a violation of a bearish trend and the start of a new bullish trend.
The intersection by itself will be a signal to open a long position.
Your task as a trader is to find the most accurate inputs for MAs. With backtesting and experience, you will find the settings applicable to your trading style.
What indicator do you want to learn in the next post?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Bitcoin - what to do after the dump?Bitcoin dumped. What to do now?
I have mentioned it multiple times – the next bull run will be triggered by a new giant downtrend for DXY. But FED increasing the rates is not in our favor… so let’s see the supports below us:
2022 bottom – everyone screamed for bullish December 2021, but we had a red December followed by a small crash in January 2022, causing panic and 10 000$ calls. The current price action has many similarities with January (also after a FED event) and the lows from the year opening are our support now at around 32500$. A must hold level, breaking of which will lead us to the rows below…
2021 bottom – you must remember the June-July 2021 dump after the memecoins season, right? Well, there is still a possibility for a revisit of these lows. They should hold, otherwise Bitcoin will do a test of the previous bull market high at around 20 000$.
Where to flip bullish? Don’t try to catch a falling knife. I will be full bull only when Bitcoin flips all daily moving averages as support (MA50, 100 and 200) + the 21 weekly EMA, also known as the bull market marker.
Trade safe and don’t overleverage!
Ethereum Technical Analysis! Key Levels to Watch! Currently Ethereum doesn't look too good from a TA perspective vs Bitcoin. On the 1D chart, we can see the red diamond on the RSVP Extractor called the drop, then the yellow shaded areas (oversold on RSI) called the bounce. Although there are 3 resistance points.
The first is a trendline resistance around $3,600. The next is the immediate trendline resistance at $3,359 with coincides with the horizontal support at the same level. If ETH can't break this level, I can see it retesting support around $3,050 then falling to $2,750 if that can't hold.
For the bullish scenario, ETH needs to break the $3,359 resistance then we're looking at the $3,600 trendline resistance, and finally the $3,842 horizontal resistance.
If you had any question about my technical analysis above or my indicators used, please send me a DM or comment below :)
My last trade of the week EURJPY long. Sharing the last trade I've taken of the week before I log of for the weekend.
Trade in progress on our EURJPY H1 strategy.
Entry details are shown on the chart.
We're only looking for TP3.
Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency.
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I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily.
Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way.
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Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏
Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌
No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren.
The Volume Extractor & Whales Buy-Sell Indicator Called the Top!Looking at the 1hr chart for BTC /Binance, we can see that our Whales Buy-Sell indicator and Volume Extractor indicator called the top perfectly with 3 red diamonds and a Sell signal! We can see that Bitcoin couldn't hold above our support at $56,440 and went to retest the Daily diagonal support of $56,100. Unfortunately it fell through that diagonal support down to our next support of $54,300. Not being able to hold that either, it fell to our current support of $52,386.
A few key takeaways from this breakdown:
1. We were right above a key support level (meaning if we broke down, it could break down violently)
2. Our MACD was losing momentum and went from a dark green bar to a light green bar (indicating sell pressure)
3. Our Volume Extractor indicator was flashing 3 red diamonds in a row which is a STRONG sell signal while our Price Extractor indicator was near the top of it's BBs but not quite crossing out of them (more overbought indications)
4. Our Whales Buy-Sell indicator flashed a sell signal after all of this to confirm the downtrend
5. All of this combined, caused the breakdown you see before you
Our next support level is $51,614 followed by a strong support of $50,000. Currently we're starting to get reversal indications on the 1h, seeing how our Price Extractor is flashing an oversold signal but it's still too early to tell. The $54,300 level has now become resistance and I'm looking for us to break above that if we're to continue our uptrend.
If you have any questions about the indicators I used or would like to purchase the Whales Buy-Sell indicator or Volume Extractor, please PM me :)
CADJPY Short trade present.Morning Traders
Working the H1 chart on the CADJPY pair here and after a successful long trade a sell signal has presented at 10 am UK time.
I know enter the sell and follow the trend until next signal. That is how I work this strategy but you can adapt the strategy for to your own needs and for example if you worked to a take profit target you could of choose any of those take profit targets in the previous trade and would of banked good pips.
For more information on the strategy drop me a message.
XAU/TRY Currency Chart. Gold Ounce to Lira Policymakers in emerging markets frequently complain that foreign capital is fickle. But foreign capital could be forgiven for having a similar gripe about emerging markets. On a conference call on May 6th Turkey’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, was solicitous and reassuring, telling nervous overseas investors that the country’s dollar reserves were adequate and its commitment to market principles was firm. But the next day the banking regulator turned cold, reprimanding three foreign banks, BNP Paribas, UBS and even Citigroup, which helped host the call, for failing to meet their lira obligations on time. As punishment, it barred them from the country’s currency market. Four days later, the mood changed and the ban was lifted.
EURUSD Rallies Sharply, Eyes More StrengthEURUSD faces risk of further move higher following its sharp rally on Monday. Resistance stands at the 1.0950 where a break will turn risk towards the 1.1000 level. A breach of here will target the 1.1050 level. Further up, resistance stands at the 1.1100. Conversely, on the downside, support comes in at 1.0850 level with a violation opening the door for further gain towards the 1.0800 level. Further down, resistance lies at the 1.0750 level. A cut through that level will clear the way for a move towards the 1.0700 level. All in all, EURUSD looks for further bull threats
USDCAD Chart — USD to CAD Rate — TradingView Outlook in USD/CAD remains unchanged. Corrective patterns from 1.4667 could still extend with another decline through 1.3850 support. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.3202 to 1.4667 at 1.3762 to bring rebound. On the upside, the break of 1.4140 resistance will indicate the completion of the correction. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.4667. However, a sustained break of 1.3762 will bring a deeper fall to 1.3664 key support next.