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10 Steps to Start Trading WellTo start anything in life, no matter what it is or how long it may seem, you need to take the first step. With trading it’s the same, with one little difference. You have the opportunity to learn the costly mistakes, tips and the strategies that have worked for other successful traders. This way you can, take the shortcut to kick start your trading career, make it easier and more enjoyable. Here are ten quick steps you can take to start your trading on the right path. STEP 1: Choose the market/s you’d like to trade (Shares, Forex, Commodities, Indices or Crypto-currencies). STEP 2: Choose a broker or market maker you’ll trade with (Make sure they offer CFDs or Spread Betting trading). STEP 3: Learn how the trading and charting platform works (Call your broker who’ll be happy to help with the above first steps). STEP 4: Make sure you have a proven and a profitable trading strategy (Every strategy needs to have its own entry, exit levels and risk management rules). STEP 5: Back-test your trading strategy (Back test 20 trades and then forward test 20 trades on your paper account). STEP 6: Deposit money into account (You can start trading with less than R1,000 to test the markets in real-time). STEP 7: Take every trade according to the strategy (This way you can develop your track record). STEP 8: Track your trading performance to ensure your portfolio is on the up (Win rate, average winner, average loser, no. of winners, losers and other metrics). STEP 9: Read more trading books and watch YouTube videos to learn extra tips (Each tip can help boost your winners, cut losers and increase your win rate). STEP 10: Keep your head in the game (You’ll need passion, integration and determination to maintain your trading career). It’s your turn Print and laminate these steps, so you know how to start trading – the right way. Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Timonrosso
1
The Money Multiplier of TradingThere is one tool with trading, which you can accelerate your portfolio, compared to with investing. I’m talking about Gearing (or leverage). To wrap our head around this concept, here’s a more relatable life example. When you buy a house for R1,000,000, it is very similar to trading derivatives. Initially, the homeowner most probably won’t have the full R1,000,000 to buy the house with just one purchase. Instead, they’ll sign a bond agreement, make a 10% deposit (R100,000), borrow the rest from the bank and be exposed to the full purchase price of the home. This is a similar concept for when you trade with gearing. Gearing is a tool which allows you to pay a small amount of money (deposit) in order to gain control and be exposed to a larger sum of money. You’ll simply buy a contract of the underlying share, use borrowed money to trade with and be exposed to the full share’s value. Let’s simplify this with a more relatable life example: How gearing works with CFDs Let’s say you want to buy 1,000 shares of Jimbo’s Group Ltd at R50 per share as you believe the share price is going to go up to R60 in the next three months. You’ll need to pay the entire R50,000 to own the full value of the 1,000 shares (R50 X 1,000 shares). In three months’ time, if the share price hits R60 you’ll then be exposed to R60,000 (1,000 shares X R60 per share). Note: I’ve excluded trading costs for simplicity purposes throughout this section If you sold all your shares, you’ll be up R10,000 profit (R60,000 – R50,000). The problem is you had to pay the full R50,000 to be exposed to those 1,000 shares. When you trade a geared instrument like CFDs, you won’t ever have to worry about paying the full value of a share again. A CFD is an unlisted over-the-counter financial derivative contract between two parties to exchange the price difference of the opening and closing price of the underlying asset. Let’s break that down into an easy-to-understand definition. A CFD (Contract For Difference) is an Unlisted (You don’t trade through an exchange) Over The Counter (Via a private dealer or market maker) Financial derivative contract (Value from the underlying market) Between two parties (The buyer and seller) to Exchange the Price difference of the opening and closing price of the Underlying asset (Instrument the CFD price is based on) Let’s use an example of a company called Jimbo’s Group Ltd, who offers the function to trade CFDs. The initial margin (deposit) requirement is 10% of the share’s value. This means, you’ll pay R5.00 per CFD instead of R50, and you’ll be exposed to the full value of the share. To calculate the gearing (or leverage ratio) you’ll simply divide what you’ll be exposed to over the initial margin deposit. Here’s the gearing calculation on a per CFD basis: Gearing = (Exposure per share ÷ Initial deposit per CFD) = (R50 per share ÷ R5.00 per CFD) = 10 times gearing This means two things… #1. For every one Jimbo’s Group Ltd CFD you buy for R5.00 per CFD, you’ll be exposed to 10 times more (the full value of the share). #2. For every one cent the share rises or falls, you’ll gain or lose 10 cents. To have the exposure of the full 1,000 shares of Jimbo’s Group Ltd, you’ll simply need to buy 1,000 CFDs. This will require a deposit of R5,000 (1,000 CFDs X R5.00 per CFD). With a 10% margin deposit (R5,000), you’d have the exact same exposure as you’d have with a conventional R50,000 shares’ investment. Here is the calculation you can use to work out the exposure of the trade. Overall trade exposure = (Total initial margin X Gearing) = (R5,000 X 10 times) = R50,000 With an initial deposit of R5,000 and with a gearing of 10 times, you’ll be exposed to the full R50,000 worth of shares. In three months’ if the share price reaches R60, your new overall trade exposure will be R60,000 worth of shares (1,000 shares X R60 per share). If you sold all of your positions, you’d bank a R10,000 gain (R60,000 – R50,000). But remember, you only deposited R5,000 into your trade and not the full R50,000. This is the beauty of trading geared derivative instruments. Hope that helps for those who don't really grasp Gearing... Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader
JSE:AGLEducation
by Timonrosso
HOW BLOCKCHAIN WORKS - EASY POEMBlockchain, oh so grand, A digital ledger in demand, Decentralized and secure, like a band A new way to assure and keep the bond. Transactions are fair, And free from despair, A chain of blocks, Connecting folks, All across the land, Blockchain, oh so grand. This poem describes blockchain as a decentralized, secure digital ledger that is used to manage transactions. It explains that the technology uses a chain of blocks to connect people and ensure that transactions are fair and transparent.
Education
by Timonrosso
4 Sacrifices every trader makesFirst of all, trading is not a short-term proposition to get rich. Anyone who says otherwise, needs to spend some time thinking about doing before speaking inside a jail cell. No… Trading is a lifestyle that you’ll need to adapt and integrate into yours and your family’s financial future. Whenever you start something new, especially for a financial gain, you’ll need to make some form of sacrifices. In today’s article we’ll discuss the four sacrifices every successful trader will make. SACRIFICE #1: Time The money is not going to just fall into your lap. You’re going to need to put in the time to work through the process of successful trading. As a new trader you’ll need to read as many books, websites and forums on how to trade. This will prepare you for what trading is all about. Then you’ll need to take time to learn which: • Markets you wish to trade • Method you’ll use to get in and out of your trade. • Money you’ll risk to grow your portfolio • Mind you’ll need to adapt to avoid any unnecessary emotions from taking over and interfering with the process. Then finally you’ll need the time to back-test, forward-test and actually trade on a daily or a weekly basis. This time can range from 5 minutes a week, which is what I follow with the MATI Trader System, to 5 hours a day if you’re more of an aggressive intraday based trader. No matter what career you pursue, you’ll need to sacrifice the necessary time to learn the ins and outs of it. SACRIFICE #2: Money Another inevitable sacrifice you’ll need to make is to take money out of your savings to trade. I say savings because you should never risk any money you can’t afford to risk or any money that you use on a monthly basis to finance your life. Once a month as you get paid, deposit just 5% of your savings into your trading account. This way you’ll be able to grow your portfolio at a faster and a more sustainable. The other side of money you’ll risk is of course, with every trade you take. Most successful traders out there risk around 1%, 2% to 3% per trade, in order to make a 2%, 4% or even a 6% gain on your portfolio. SACRIFICE #3: Thrill You’ll need to sacrifice the THRILL of trading and exchange it for FOCUS. Trading should be seen as a business rather than playing the lottery once a week. As much as I have loved trading the MATI Trader System for the last 18 years, I’ve also taken it very seriously. Before you commit any money into the markets, you’ll need to have a solid watch list, trading system and money management rules to follow methodically. This way you’ll have a mechanical approach to trading without the thrill, when you bank a profit or without the devastation, anger and disappointment. Remember that a winning portfolio is not about taking a few trades but the 100s of trades over time. Make sure you have the focus for when you trade in the week and sacrifice the thrill for on the weekends when the markets are closed. SACRIFICE #4: Space The final sacrifice you’ll need to make is to make space. Make sure your trading desk is clear of any distracting books, devices and objects that have no aid to your trading. A cleaner and clearer trading desk will prevent a number of distractions for when you trade which could result in unnecessary stress, anxiety and worry. Also you’ll most likely need to make space for just one more monitor. By having two monitors, you can use one for your trading platform to buy, sell and modify trades. The other monitor will then be used for your charting platform to analyse, assess and seek more trading opportunities. Are they actually sacrifices? Coming to the end of the article, I’ve just realised something. These four ‘sacrifices’ you’ll make as a professional trader – Are they sacrifices or are they just opportunities you can take for trading to be smooth sailing?
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
How Bollinger Bands work and their best parametersJust a reminder... A Bollinger Band resembles a moving cylinder with three lines. A top, middle and bottom line. These three lines are plotted on any chart and you’ll see the price of the markets moving in-between these levels. When the price crossed above the middle line, the trend is up. When price moves and stays below the middle line, the trend is down. There are three parts to the Bollinger Bands. Upper, Middle and Lower Bollinger Band. Here are my parameters… The length (20) , shows you the Moving Average of the Middle Bollinger Band. Which in this case is 20 MA and is shown in the chart as the orange line… The Source tells us we are using closing prices in the chart… That means, when the JSE All Share Index closes for the day – that is the closing price that will be used for the BB. StdDev is 2… Bollinger Bands are envelopes that base a Standard Deviation above and below a simple moving average of the price. Because the distance of the bands is based on standard deviation, that’s why we are able to see a symmetrical envelope around the price… Most Bollinger Bands parameters are set to 20MA and 2 Standard Deviations on most charting platforms. But now you know what to set it to, to maximise your usage... If you have any questions about indicators feel free to ask. I've been in the markets since 2003 and enjoy sharing information... Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
3
A Santa Claus Rally for the JSE in 2022? What is expected from a Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus rally, is essentially where we see stock prices locally and globally rise and close off positively by the end of December. And so, we can expect a rally in December which we can all profit from… Why December? We aren’t 100% sure but we have some speculations on why the market tends to rally… #1: Investment managers cut down on their taxes This is the time when you’ll see investors and investment managers, selling their stocks to lock in tax reductions before the end of the year. Once they sell their positions, they then buy other stocks and markets that they believe will rally in the next year. The buying of these stocks, leads to a rise in stock prices which pushes the stock market indices up. Theory #2: Investors enjoy their bonuses by buying into investments Investors also like to spend their bonuses on investments like stocks… And when they buy, demand picks up. And this leads to higher stock market prices. Speculation is one thing. But nothing confirms a Santa Claus Rally more than proof in the charts… The JSE has gone up 14 out of 19 Decembers! What you see, is the monthly JSE-ALSI stock market chart since 2003… Looking at the chart you can see how each December (Vertical blue line) performed from 2003 up ‘till 2021 Year Gain/Loss Year Gain/Loss 2003 : 7.39% 2004 : 1.28% 2005 : 6.84% 2006 : 3.90% 2007 : -4.99% 2008 : 0.51% 2009 : 2.62% 2010 : 6.69% 2011 : -3.26% 2012 : 2.72% 2013 : 3.27% 2014 : -0.53% 2015 : -1.15% 2016 : 0.48% 2017 : -1.33% 2018 : 4.63% 2019 : 3.51% 2020 : 3.83% 2021 : 4.66% So, there’ve been 14 out of 19 Decembers (74% win rate) that have shown positive gains. And in total, the JSE has accumulated 41.07% gains in all of those Decembers. This means, you have a higher chance of profiting from buying this Christmas than selling. And right now, this December the JSE ALSI 40 is already up an insane 14.48% gain. And I am seeing no signs of a slow down yet… I guess a Santa Claus rally is more likely than not, but we have had three to four winning years in a row... Things are looking good for now but the month is young... Do you think we will have a JSE Santa Claus Rally? Let me know. Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
1
2 Steps to calculate Value Per Pip -USD/JPY - 2 Decimal placesHow to find the ‘Value Per Pip’ with the YEN Here are the trade specifics: Portfolio size: $5,000 Max risk percentage per trade: 2% ($100) Trade type: Buy (go long) Currency pair: USD/JPY Entry price: 136.80 Stop loss: 136.30 Step 1: Calculate pips risked in trade As each pip movement is two decimal places on each currency, you’ll multiply the difference between the entry and your stop loss price by 100. Here’s the calculation: Trade risk in pips = (Entry – Stop loss) X 100 = (136.80 – 136.30) X 100 = 50 pips This means, you are prepared for the market to move 50 pips away from your entry before you’ll be taken out of your trade for a loss. Step 2: Find your ‘value per pip’ ‘Value per pip’ = (Portfolio risked per trade ÷ Pips risked in trade) = ($100 ÷ 50 pips) = $2 This means, on your trading platform you’ll type in, $2 for where it says ‘Rands risked per pip’, ‘Pip value’ or ‘Volume’, place your entry price at 136.80 and your stop loss price at 136.30 in order to risk $100 of your portfolio. If you found this useful, I'd like to hear in the comments. Trade well, live free... Timon MATI Trader
Education
by Timonrosso
3 Steps to find your Value per Pip with Forex - 4 decimalsDo you know how much money you’ll risk every time you take a Forex trade? To be an astute Forex trader, you’ll not only need to know your trading levels such as your entry, stop loss and take profit price, but you’ll also need to how much money to deposit into your trade to risk a certain portion of your portfolio. We’ll go through a three step checklist, you’ll need to find your ‘value per pip’ which is also known as your ‘rands risked per pip’. The ‘value per pip’ explained The ‘value per pip’ is the amount of money in your portfolio that you’re willing to risk or gain for every one pip that moves in or against your favour. If you choose a ‘value per pip’ of R5 and the market moves 20 pips away from your entry price, this means you’ll incur a R100 loss (R5 risk per pip X 20 pips movement). Similarly, if the market moves in your favour of 20 pips, then you’ll be up with a gain of R100. However, we all have different portfolio values and so the ‘value per pip’ will be different for each of us. That’s why you’ll need a checklist to follow in order to find your ‘value per pip’. 3 Steps to find your ‘Value Per Pip’ Here are the specifics for the trade Portfolio value: R50,000 2% Max risk per Forex trade: R1,000 Trade type: Buy (go long) Currency pair: AUD/USD Entry price: 0.7010 Stop loss price: 0.6970 Next, you’ll need to follow three steps: Step 1: Calculate the portfolio risk per trade Before each trade you take, you’ll need to know exactly how much money you’re prepared to risk. If you’re a risk averse trader, like me, you’ll risk 2% per trade. If you’re an aggressive trader, maybe you’ll risk 5% of your portfolio per trade. For this example, let’s stick to 2% risk. You’ll then multiply your current portfolio amount by the risk percentage you’re willing to lose in the trade. Here’s the calculation. Risk per trade = (Portfolio size X Max percentage risk per trade) = (R50,000 X 2%) = R1,000 R1,000 is all you are prepared to risk per trade, when your portfolio value is R50,000. Step 2: Calculate pips risked in trade The next step is to calculate how many pips you’re prepared to lose between the entry price and your stop loss price. As each pip movement is four decimal places on each currency, you’ll multiply the difference between the entry and your stop loss price by 10,000. Here’s the calculation: Trade risk in pips = (Entry – Stop loss) X 10,000 = (0.7010 – 0.6970) X 10,000 = 40 pips This means, you are prepared for the market to move 40 pips away from your entry before you’ll be taken out of your trade for a loss. Step 3: Find your ‘value per pip’ You now have all of the variables you’ll need, to calculate the ‘value per pip’ with your Forex trade. Here’s the calculation. ‘Value per pip’ = (Portfolio risked per trade ÷ Pips risked in trade) = (R1,000 ÷ 40 pips) = R25 This means, on your trading platform you’ll type in, R25 for where it says ‘Rands risked per pip’, ‘Pip value’ or ‘Volume’, place your entry price at 0.7010 and your stop loss price at 0.6970 in order to risk R1,000 of your portfolio. You have the three step checklist to find your ‘value per pip’ for every Forex currency that has decimals 4 points to the right. Trade well, live free. Follow for more daily Trading Tips and lessons I've gained over the last 20+ years. Timon MATI Trader
Education
by Timonrosso
1
How much money in your account to bank your monthly income?“How much money would you like to bank a month?” $3,000 $5,000? $30,000? To answer this question and to get you on the path of achieving this income, you’ll need just one tool. Pull out your profitable trading plan You and I both know that to set a monthly income goal for trading, you’ll need a solid, proven and easy to follow game plan. If you do have a trading strategy that you’re happy with and works for you, then great. You should already have a strong indication on how your portfolio has performed during an array of different market environments. Obviously the more data you have on your trading, the higher the reliability that you’ll earn similar monthly returns in the future. Once you have gathered your historical trading data, you’ll then need to jot down four important stats namely: Four stats to create a desired income per month Stat 1: No. of expected winning trades per month. Stat 2: Average % gain in rands per trade. Stat 3: No. of expected losing trades per month. Stat 4: Average % loss in rands per trade. To choose the monthly income you’d like to pocket per month, you’ll need to know how much you’ll need in your trading account. Let’s say you want to bank an average $3,000 on average per month, with both winning and losing trades. For this article, let’s use the metrics of the MATI Trader System that I’ve back and forward tested for the past 20 years. Let’s plug the stats into the table to see. Expected return a month: $3,000 Stat 1: 3 Winning trades per month. Stat 2: 4% Average gain per winner. Stat 3: 2 Losing trades per month. Stat 4: 2% Average loss per loser. We now have all the information to calculate how much money you’ll need, in order to bank an average monthly $3,000. 1 Formula to calculate how much you need in your trading account Step 1: Find out the total percentage gain you can earn per month = (Winning trades X Gain % per winner) = (3 Winners X 4% Gain) = 12% gain. Step 2: Calculate the total percentage loss you can lose per month = (Losing trades X Loss % per loser) = (2 Losers X 2% Loss) = 4% loss Step 3: Finally calculate the amount of money you can net on average per month = (Total gain %) – (Total loss %) = (12% Gain – 4% Loss) = 8% Net gain Step 4: Know your trading account size to pocket a desired monthly income. = (Expected amount to earn ÷ Net % return per month) = ($3,000 ÷ 8% Return) = $37,500 So to bank around $3,000 on average per month, with 3 winners and 2 losers, you’ll need to have a trading account of $37,500. Don’t be fooled if you think you’ll bank $3,000 EVERY month! As you know, my goal through sharing this information is to show you how realistic successful trading works With pretty much every trading system, you can expect around three to four losing months a year. This year I had around 5 losing months - It's been a tough one. Some months you may be down $2,000 and other months you’ll be up $5,000, we never know for certain how the future will pan out. However, with a proven and a long back and forward tested trading system, with this formula will give you the edge of what the likelihood of your returns will be. The formula works on any size portfolio or desired income - I am just giving you an example with banking a $3,000 a month... If you enjoyed this article or would like to share feedback I'd love to hear it :) Trade well, live free.. Timon MATI Trader
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Why I LOVE Trading View - Best I've seen in 20 yearsWhether you're new to trading or you’re an advanced chartist – we all have the same expectations when it comes to choosing a charting platform. It must be online, fast, safe, customizable and user friendly. And you know what – it should be free! With the high competition of charting platforms available world-wide, each company must ensure they have free, live streaming, cutting edge, secure and easy to use platforms to offer their customers and clients at the very least – top-notch service. I’ve used many charting platforms since 2003. From London School of Investments, Amibroker, MetaStock, ProTrader, Cycle Trends, IG Markets, Oanda, MetaTrader, Sword Fish… You name it. But there is ONE free charting platform, which has become my absolute favourite over the years, Trading View... TradingView (est. 2012) is a world leading, cutting-edge FREE online visualisation financial charting platform for beginners up to the most advanced professional traders, with over 10 million subscribers. The platform has direct access to unlimited live streaming data from stocks, futures, bonds, indices, Forex, commodities, ETFs and even crypto-currencies. It allows you to customise your watch lists, back test your strategies, share, publish or enjoy live and active trading ideas, signals and tutorials through the platform or directly to your Twitter and Stock Twits feed. With TradingView you’ll be able to enjoy this free charting phenomena across either your web browser, Android or Apple iOS devices. It's incredible to have such a thorough and advanced charting platform. It's even more amazing for new traders under 5 years of experience to have this cutting-edge technology platform to learn how to trade and enjoy the trading process... Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
My three favourite Moving Averages on any chartI have three Moving Averages that I plot on any market. 7 MA 21 MA 200 MA Here is the JSE ALSI 40 with the three moving averages. In the above daily chart of the JSE you can see I’ve plotted the 7MA (Red), 21MA (Blue) and 200MA (Black). Now I have two simple rules for when the market is in an uptrend or a downtrend. Downtrend with the three Moving Averages You know the market is in a downtrend when the price is below the 200 MA. Also, 200MA is above the 21 Moving Average. And the 21 MA is above the 7MA. In other words. 7MA < 21MA < 200MA. You can see on the left part of the chart where the trend is down (Red arrow). This tells me that the momentum is bearish and the market is more likely to fall than rise. I will then avoid buying the market and instead will only look to short (sell) and profit from a falling market. Then we have the Uptrend with the three Moving Averages What tells me the market is in an uptrend is when the price is above the 200 MA. Also the 7MA is above the 21MA. And the 21MA is above the 200MA. You can see on the right part of the chart where the trend turns up (Green arrow). This tells me that the momentum is bullish and the market is more likely to continue to rise. I will then only look for longs (buy) the market and avoid shorting or selling the market. Now you have my favourite 3 Moving Averages in a bag for you to plot on your chart and master the trends. Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader Connect below with the socials...
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
3
Is YOUR Broker Regulated? Find out hereHere is a list of eight of the main financial regulatory agencies that are backed with strict regulatory enforcement in other countries… You’ll need to make sure the broker you choose is approved by one of the below. South Africa (FSCA) - The Financial Sector Conduct Authority USA (SEC) – Securities And Exchange Commission Eurozone (MiFID) – Markets In Financial Instruments Directive UK (FCA) – Financial Conduct Authority Australia (ASIC) – Australian Securities and Investments Commission India (SEBI) – Securities and Exchange Board of India Japan (JSDA) – Japan Securities Dealers Association Switzerland (FINMA) – Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority Am I missing any? Let me know in the comments :) Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader Financial trader since 2003
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Losses are Just the Costs of TradingLosses are nothing! Come on. Don't you pay for food, electricity, taxes. Don't you run your company with expenses and costs? Don't you spend every now and then on a vacation, time away and even unpaid leave? This is life and it should be NO different with trading. Trading losses are nothing but costs that come with achieving future success. But... and it's a big but. Just like you can control whether to spend your ticket on Economy or First Class. Just like you can choose to go to a 3-star hotel or a 5 star. Just like you can choose between a chicken dish or a lobster. So to must you manage your risk with trading. The learning fees, and the losses you take with trading can all be controlled at a point with obviously your volume, the markets you choose and where you place your stop loss... Every trade needs to be taken into consideration with high risk management skills. Don't be scared of trading losses- it comes with the territory as with life. What do you think? Does this help? Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader Financial trader since 2003
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
2
How many Crypto Currencies are there?You’d probably think there are around 100, 200 maybe 1,000 crypto currencies. And that’s because the news only covers a handful, but I think you would be surprised at the actual number. Right now, there are over 12,000 different crypto currency coins out there. And they are increasing by 1,000 new crypto currencies every month. The amazing thing is, unlike shares, these coins are very easy to create and regulate - YOURSELF. You can even hire someone from Fiverr to make you a crypto-currency for less than $20. I could even get a MATI Trader coin made if I wanted to. But this isn’t good news in my opinion. You see, most crypto currencies have very little purpose other than making money for their developers through investors buying and selling the coin. So which cryptos do I trade? For me it’s only down to two crypto currencies. Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Father and the mother of the crypto market. They are the biggest, most recognized and understood than any other crypto in circulation. But the crypto winter is not over and the bottoms are not set yet. There still needs to be a lot of fixing and regeneration of confidence before we see any upside with crypto… I’m sitting on my hands right now, until we see a change in the trend.
Education
by Timonrosso
The BEST Trading IndicatorWith the ever increasing number of indicators, it makes sense that beginner traders’ wish to cut the steep learning curve by trying to find which indicator is the best and the most profitable to choose from. It’s overwhelming to start trading with so many jargon terms like, the MACD, RSI, Stochastics, ADX, Bollinger Bands and so on… Luckily, you won’t ever have to worry about any of these indicators. Here’s why… The quest to find the perfect trading indicator There is a big misconception when it comes to learning how to trade. Most new people start by going onto Google to search for the ‘best trading strategy’ or the ‘best trading indicator’ to speed up their success. Everybody wants to find that perfect trading indicator that will help them profit 80% to 100% of the time. Yet, at most, there are only 5% of traders’ out there who are able to make a consistent income with trading. I have two main reasons on this matter, which I’ve gathered since 2003. Reason 1: All indicators are history With local and international markets such as the stock market, Forex and even with crypto-currencies, there are billions of rands traded every day. With the ongoing economic, socio and political events taking place, every transaction from either a company, private individual or even a bot is entirely unique and UNEXPECTED. So which indicator is the best to choose from? Well before you go and do research on each indicator there is to trade with, let me spare you the time and tell you this… Every technical indicator and oscillator out there, is based on one thing. HISTORICAL DATA. When you add an indicator onto a chart, it can only show one of three things which are either the: Current momentum. Current trend direction or the. Demand and supply based on buying and selling volume. Not one indicator has any form of predictive qualities. Even with the dawn of Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing, there will most likely never be that one indicator that will be able to predict the future with accuracy and certainty every time. However, let’s say there is that one Quantum Computer that is able to take every news event, internal and external factor into account. The information assembled and collected, will still be based on past data. By now you may be feeling like your life has been a lie with all the marketing fluff out there with the 100% win-rate and get rich quick scams, but I assure you there is one legit way to succeed from trading. Reason 2: Each element is essential It doesn’t take just one trading strategy to bank a consistent income. It doesn’t take just a few rules to follow and, It doesn’t take a whole lot of money to fund your account to make it as a trader. No, in actual fact it takes four equally important elements namely: MARKETS: You need to find the best markets that are out there to trade and when to trade them. METHOD: You need to create or adopt a proven trading strategy that will fit your personality. (Price action with a few patterns is all that's needed to spot probability trades). MONEY: You need to have just a couple of money management rules, to follow every time you take a trade. MIND: You need to find a way to develop trading self-confidence as well as a strong mindset throughout your career. This is where so many different trading companies, publications and even education institutions seem to miss the mark. They either specialise ONLY in psychology, trading analysis or just on money management. Unfortunately, this is one hobby or lifestyle where being an expert in ONE field will not guarantee your success.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
2
2% Rule with CFDs versus Spread TradingThe rule is very easy to understand. Whether you trade using CFDs or Spread Betting, the rule is the same. Never risk more than 2% of your portfolio on any one trade. It’s one rule that you can use whether you have a R1,000 account or a R10,000,000 account. You see, trading is a forever business. This means, as a trader you should risk as little of your portfolio as possible in order to stay in the game longer. We’ll now go straight into how you to enter your CFDs and Spread Betting trades using the 2% rule. How to enter your CFD trade using the 2% Rule Here are the specifics for the trade CFD of the underlying Company: TIM Ltd CFDs Portfolio value: R100,000 2% Max risk per CFD trade: R2,000 Entry price: R400.00 Stop loss price: R380.00 To calculate the no. of CFDs you’ll buy per trade, you’ll need the: ~ Max risk per trade ~ Entry Price and ~ Stop loss price Next, you’ll need to follow two steps: Step #1: Calculate the risk in trade The ‘risk in trade’ is the price difference between where you enter and where your stop loss is: Risk in trade = (Entry price – Stop loss price) = (R400 – R380) = R20 Step #2: Calculate the no. of CFDs to buy No. of CFDs to buy = (2% Risk ÷ Risk in trade) = (R2,000 ÷ R20) = 100 CFDs In your platform you’ll type in 100 TIM CFDs to buy, place your entry price at R400 and your stop loss price at R380 to risk only 2% of your portfolio. Note: 1 CFD = 1 Share exposure 100 CFDs = 100 Shares exposure How to enter your Spread Trade using the 2% Rule With spread trading you trade on a ‘value per 1 point’ basis. You’ll choose either: R0.01, R0.10, R1 or any other amount per 1 cent movement in the underlying market. If you choose R0.10 value per 1 cent movement, for every 10 cents the market moves against or for you, you’ll lose or gain 100 cents (10 cents value per point X 10 cents movement). Here are the specifics for the spread trade. Contract of the underlying Company: TIM Ltd Portfolio value: R100,000 2% Max risk per Spread trade: 200,000c (R2,000) Entry price: 40,000c (R400.00) Stop loss price: 38,000c (R380.00) To calculate the ‘Value Per Point’ to enter your long (buy) trade, you’ll need the: ~ Max risk per trade ~ Entry Price ~ Stop loss price Next, you’ll need to follow two steps: Step #1: Calculate the risk in trade Risk in trade = (Entry price – Stop loss price) = (40,000c – R38,000c) = 2,000c (R20.00) Step #2: Value per 1 cent movement Value per 1 cent movement = (2% Risk ÷ Risk in trade) = (200,000c ÷ 2,000c) = 100c (R1.00) This means, with a ‘Value per point of 100c’ every 1 cent the TIM Ltd share price moves, you’ll make or lose 100 cents. Every 2,000c the market moves, you’ll make or lose 200,000c or R2,000 of your portfolio (100c Value per 1 cent movement X 2,000c movement). Note: 1 Cent per 1 cent movement = 1 Share exposure 100 Cents per 1 cent movement = 100 Shares exposure
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
EXPLAINED: How Gearing Works with CFDs and Spread TradingNot sure what happened but the image didn't show. Here it is again... This is the most important concept you’ll need to understand to accelerate your account. During your trading experience, with gearing, you’ll learn how to multiply your profits. But you can also multiply your losses, if you don’t know what you’re doing. So listen up. What Gearing is in a nutshell… Gearing also known as leverage or margin trading, is the function that allows you to pay a small amount of money, in order to gain control and be exposed to a larger sum of money. There is a very simple calculation you’ll use calculate the gearing for both CFDs and Spread Trading. Exposure Initial margin In order to understand this formula, let’s use three gearing examples with shares versus CFDs and Spread Trading. We’ll break it up into three steps for CFDs and Spread Trading: 1. Calculate the entry market exposure 2. Calculate the initial margin (Deposit) 3. Calculate the gearing We’ll also exclude costs to help simplify the gearing concept better. EXAMPLE 1: Buying AAS Ltd shares Portfolio value: R100,000 Company: AAS Ltd Share price: R109.00 No. shares to buy: 100 If you buy one share at R109 per share, you’ll be exposed to R109 worth of one share. If you buy 100 shares at R109 per share, you’ll be exposed to R10,900 worth of shares (100 shares X R109 per share). We know that to be exposed to the full R10,900 worth of shares, we needed to pay an initial margin (deposit) of R10,900. If we plug in values into the gearing formula, we get. Gearing = (Exposure ÷ Initial Margin) = (R10,900 ÷ R10,900) = 1:1 This means, there is NO gearing or a gearing of 1 times, with the share example as, what we paid is exactly as what we are exposed to. Easy enough? Let’s move onto CFDs. EXAMPLE 2: Buying AAS Ltd CFDs Portfolio value: R100,000 CFD of the underlying Company: AAS Ltd CFD Share price: R109.00 Margin % per CFD: 10% (NOTE: Find out on your trading platform or ask your broker for the margin % per CFD) No. CFDs to buy: 100 Step #1: Calculate the entry exposure of the CFD Entry exposure = (Share price X No. CFDs) = (R109.00 X 100 CFDs) = R10,900 NOTE: 1 CFD per trade, you’ll be exposed to the value of one share. 100 CFDs per trade, you’ll be exposed to the value of 100 shares. Step #2: Calculate the initial margin of the CFD trade Initial margin = (Exposure X Margin % per CFD) = (R10,900 X 0.10) = R1,090 This means to buy 100 CFDs, you’ll need to pay an initial margin (deposit) of R1,090. Step #3: Calculate the gearing of the CFD trade Gearing = (Exposure ÷ Initial margin) = (R10,900 ÷ R1,090) = 10 times With a gearing of 10 times, this means two things… #1: For every one CFD you buy for R10.90 per CFD, you’ll be exposed to 10 times more or the value of one AAS Ltd share. #2: For every one cent the share price rises or falls, you’ll gain or lose 10 cents. EXAMPLE 2: Buying AAS Ltd CFDs Portfolio value: R100,000 Underlying Company: AAS Ltd Share price: 10,900c Value per point: 100c (R1.00) Margin % per Spread Trading contract: 7.50% (NOTE: Find out on your trading platform or ask your broker for the margin % per share contract) Step #1: Calculate the entry exposure of the spread trade Entry exposure = (Share price X Value per point) = (10,900c X 100c) = 1,090,000 (R10,900) Note: 1c value per point per spread trade– you’ll be exposed to one AAS share 100c value per point per spread trade – you’ll be exposed to 100 AAS shares Step #2: Calculate the initial margin of the spread trade Initial margin = (Exposure X Initial margin) = (1,090,000c X 0.075) = 81,750c (R817.50) This means, you’ll need to pay an initial margin (deposit) of R817.50 to be exposed to R10,900 worth of AAS Ltd shares. Step #3: Calculate the gearing of the spread trade Gearing = (Exposure ÷ Initial margin) = (1,090,000 ÷ 81,750c) = 13.33 times This means, by depositing R817.50 you’ll be exposed to 13.33 times more or R10,900 (R817.50 X 13.33 times) worth of AAS Ltd shares. You now know how gearing works with CFDs and Spread Trading, in the next lesson we’ll cover how to never risk more than 2% of your portfolio for each CFD and Spread Trade you take. Did you enjoy this article? Trade well, live free. Timon Rossolimos Feel free to follow our socials below for more.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
How Gearing Works with CFDs and Spread TradingThis is the most important concept you’ll need to understand to accelerate your account. During your trading experience, with gearing, you’ll learn how to multiply your profits. But you can also multiply your losses, if you don’t know what you’re doing. So listen up. What Gearing is in a nutshell… Gearing also known as leverage or margin trading, is the function that allows you to pay a small amount of money, in order to gain control and be exposed to a larger sum of money. There is a very simple calculation you’ll use calculate the gearing for both CFDs and Spread Trading. Exposure Initial margin In order to understand this formula, let’s use three gearing examples with shares versus CFDs and Spread Trading. We’ll break it up into three steps for CFDs and Spread Trading: 1. Calculate the entry market exposure 2. Calculate the initial margin (Deposit) 3. Calculate the gearing We’ll also exclude costs to help simplify the gearing concept better. EXAMPLE 1: Buying AAS Ltd shares Portfolio value: R100,000 Company: AAS Ltd Share price: R109.00 No. shares to buy: 100 If you buy one share at R109 per share, you’ll be exposed to R109 worth of one share. If you buy 100 shares at R109 per share, you’ll be exposed to R10,900 worth of shares (100 shares X R109 per share). We know that to be exposed to the full R10,900 worth of shares, we needed to pay an initial margin (deposit) of R10,900. If we plug in values into the gearing formula, we get. Gearing = (Exposure ÷ Initial Margin) = (R10,900 ÷ R10,900) = 1:1 This means, there is NO gearing or a gearing of 1 times, with the share example as, what we paid is exactly as what we are exposed to. Easy enough? Let’s move onto CFDs. EXAMPLE 2: Buying AAS Ltd CFDs Portfolio value: R100,000 CFD of the underlying Company: AAS Ltd CFD Share price: R109.00 Margin % per CFD: 10% (NOTE: Find out on your trading platform or ask your broker for the margin % per CFD) No. CFDs to buy: 100 Step #1: Calculate the entry exposure of the CFD Entry exposure = (Share price X No. CFDs) = (R109.00 X 100 CFDs) = R10,900 NOTE: 1 CFD per trade, you’ll be exposed to the value of one share. 100 CFDs per trade, you’ll be exposed to the value of 100 shares. Step #2: Calculate the initial margin of the CFD trade Initial margin = (Exposure X Margin % per CFD) = (R10,900 X 0.10) = R1,090 This means to buy 100 CFDs, you’ll need to pay an initial margin (deposit) of R1,090. Step #3: Calculate the gearing of the CFD trade Gearing = (Exposure ÷ Initial margin) = (R10,900 ÷ R1,090) = 10 times With a gearing of 10 times, this means two things… #1: For every one CFD you buy for R10.90 per CFD, you’ll be exposed to 10 times more or the value of one AAS Ltd share. #2: For every one cent the share price rises or falls, you’ll gain or lose 10 cents. EXAMPLE 2: Buying AAS Ltd CFDs Portfolio value: R100,000 Underlying Company: AAS Ltd Share price: 10,900c Value per point: 100c (R1.00) Margin % per Spread Trading contract: 7.50% (NOTE: Find out on your trading platform or ask your broker for the margin % per share contract) Step #1: Calculate the entry exposure of the spread trade Entry exposure = (Share price X Value per point) = (10,900c X 100c) = 1,090,000 (R10,900) Note: 1c value per point per spread trade– you’ll be exposed to one AAS share 100c value per point per spread trade – you’ll be exposed to 100 AAS shares Step #2: Calculate the initial margin of the spread trade Initial margin = (Exposure X Initial margin) = (1,090,000c X 0.075) = 81,750c (R817.50) This means, you’ll need to pay an initial margin (deposit) of R817.50 to be exposed to R10,900 worth of AAS Ltd shares. Step #3: Calculate the gearing of the spread trade Gearing = (Exposure ÷ Initial margin) = (1,090,000 ÷ 81,750c) = 13.33 times This means, by depositing R817.50 you’ll be exposed to 13.33 times more or R10,900 (R817.50 X 13.33 times) worth of AAS Ltd shares. You now know how gearing works with CFDs and Spread Trading, in the next lesson we’ll cover how to never risk more than 2% of your portfolio for each CFD and Spread Trade you take.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
EXPLAINED: CFDs versus Spread Trading 101What are CFDs and Spread Trading? Spread Trading (betting) and CFDs are financial instruments that allow us to do one thing. To place a bet on whether a market will go up or down in price – without owning the underlying asset. If we are correct, we stand a chance to make magnified profits and vice versa if wrong. Both CFDs and Spread Trading, allow us to buy or sell a huge variety of markets including: • Stocks • Currencies • Commodities • Crypto-currencies and • Indices. When you have chosen a market to trade, there are two types of CFD or Spread Trading positions you can take. You can buy (go long) a market at a lower price as you expect the price to go up where you’ll sell your position at a higher price for a profit. You can sell (go short) a market at a higher price as you expect the price to go down where you’ll buy your position at a lower price for a profit. EXPLAINED: CFDs for Dummies DEFINITION: A CFD is an unlisted over-the-counter financial derivative contract between two parties to exchange the price difference between the opening and closing price of the underlying asset. Let’s break that down into an easy-to-understand definition. EASIER DEFINITION: A CFD (Contract For Difference) is an: • Unlisted (You don’t trade through an exchange) • Over The Counter (Via a private dealer or market maker) • Financial derivative contract (Value from the underlying market) • Between two parties (The buyer and seller) to • Exchange the • Price difference (Of the opening and closing price) of the • Underlying asset (Instrument the CFD price is based on) EASIEST DEFINITION Essentially, you’ll enter into a CONTRACT at one price, close it at another price FOR a profit or a loss depending on the price DIFFERENCE (between your entry and exit). Moving onto Spread Trading. EXPLAINED: Spread Trading for Dummies DEFINITION: Spread Trading is a derivative method to place a trade with a chosen bet size per point on the movement of a market’s price. EASIER DEFINITION: Spread Trading is a: Derivative method (Exposed to an underlying asset) to Place a trade (Buy or sell) with a chosen Bet size per point on where you expect a Market price will Move (Up or down) In value EASIEST DEFINITION: Spread Betting allows you to place a BET size on where you expect a market to move in price. Each point the market moves against or for you, you’ll win or lose money based on their chosen TRADING bet size (a.k.a Risk per point or cent movement). The higher the bet size (value per point), the higher your risk and reward. The costs you WILL pay with Spread Trading and CFDs Both Spread Trading and CFDs are geared-based derivative financial instruments. As their values derive from an underlying asset, when you trade using Spread Trading or CFDs, you never actually own any of the assets. You’re just making a simple bet on whether you expect a market price to rise or fall in the future. If you decide to go with the broker or market maker who offers CFDs or Spread Trading, there are certain costs you’ll need to pay. Costs with Spread Trading With Spread Trading, you’ll only have one cost to pay – which are all included in – the spread. The spread is the price difference between the bid (buying price) and the offer (selling price). EXAMPLE: Let’s say you enter a trade and the bid and offer prices is 5,550c – 5,610c. The spread, in this case, is 60c (5,610c – 5,550c). This means your trade has to move 60c to cross the spread in order for you to be in the money-making territory. Also, if the trade goes against you, the spread will also add to your losses. Why the spread you ask? The spread is where the brokers (market makers’) make their money. Costs with CFDs Brokerage With CFDs, it can be different. Depending on who you choose to trade CFDs with, you may need to cover both the spread as well as the brokerage fees – when you trade. These brokerage fees can range from 0.2% – 0.60% for when you enter (leg in) and exit (leg out) a trade. NOTE: If the minimum brokerage per trade is R100, you’ll have to pay R100 to enter your trade. Daily Interest Finance Charge The other (negligible) cost, you’ll need to cover is the daily financing charges. If you buy (go long) a trade, you’ll have to pay this negligible charge (0.02% per day) to hold a trade overnight. However, if you sell (go short) a CFD trade, you’ll then receive this negligible amount (0.009%) to hold a short trade overnight. The costs you WON’T pay as a Spread Trader With spread trading (betting), you don’t own anything physical. When you take a spread bet, you’re simply making a financial bet on where you expect the price to move and nothing else. This means, there will be no costs to pay as you would with shares including: NO Daily Interest Finance charges NO Stamp Duty costs NO Capital Gains Tax NO Securities Transfer Tax NO Strate NO VAT NO Brokerage (all wrapped in the spread). The costs you WON’T pay as a CFD trader With CFDs, you’ll notice that there are similar costs with Spread Trading that you won’t have to pay including: NO Stamp Duty costs NO Securities Transfer Tax NO Settlement and clearing fees NO VAT NO Strate 24-Hour Dealings The great thing about Spread Betting or CFD trading is that, you can trade markets trade 24/5. I’m talking about currencies, commodities and indices. And with Crypto-currencies you can trade them 24 hours a day seven days a week. I have left out a very important difference between CFDs and Spread Trading… Gearing and how it works in real life…
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
1
Trading 101 - What is a Derivative & why are they revolutionary?Derivatives trading! What I believe has been the absolute market revolution since shares. Derivatives might sound complicated and something you would hear from a professor or a know-it-all businessman – but they’re really not. I am no academic or even remotely one of the smartest guy’s in the world. And if I can grasp the idea and understanding of derivatives, I pretty much guarantee you will too. Also, if you want to take trading seriously and really make a living with it, you’ll need to understand derivatives trading sometime in your career. Let’s start at the very beginning. What is a derivative? – Collins English Dictionary – ‘A derivative is an investment that depends on the value of something else’ When it comes to trading, a derivative is a financial contract between two parties whose value is ‘derived’ from another (underlying) asset. Let’s break that down more simply: A derivative is a financial contract (CFDs, Spread Trading, Futures, Forwards, Options &Warrants) Between two parties (the buyer and seller) Whose value (the market’s price) Is derived (depends on or comes from) Another underlying asset (Share, index, commodity, currency, bond, interest-rate, crypto-currency etc…) You’ll find that the derivative’s market price mirrors that of the underlying asset’s price. Why trade using derivatives? The absolute beauty about trading derivatives is that they are a cheaper and a more profitable way to speculate on the future price movements of a market without buying the asset itself. You don’t get all the benefits with derivatives What’s probably important to note with derivatives, is this. When you buy a derivative’s contract, you’re not actually buying the physical asset. You’re simply making a bet on where you expect the price to go. EXAMPLE: When you buy actual shares of a company, means you’ll be able to attend AGMs (Annual General Meetings), Vote and claim dividends from a company. When you trade derivatives on the underlying share, means you’ll be exposed to the value of the shares and the price movements – and that’s it! As a trader, when you buy or sell a derivative, you’re not actually investing in the underlying asset but rather just making a bet (speculation) on where you believe the market’s price will head. This gives you the advantage and opportunity to: Buy low (go long) a derivative of the underlying asset and sell it at a higher price for a profit or Sell high (go short) a derivative of the underlying asset and buy it back at a lower price for a profit Remember when I said it was cheaper and more profitable? You can thank margin With derivatives, you’ll normally pay a fraction of the price of the total sum and still be exposed to the full value of the asset (share, index, currency etc…) The fraction of the price paid is called ‘margin’. EXAMPLE: To buy and own 10 Anglo shares at R390 per share will cost you R3,900 (R390 per share X 10 shares). To buy and be exposed to 10 Anglo shares using derivatives, and the margin of the contract is 10% per share, means you’ll only pay R390 (R390 per share X 10% margin per derivative X 10 shares). I’m sure you can see that with derivatives, you’ll be exposed to more and pay less which will gear up your potential profits or losses versus when trading shares. This is why we call derivatives, geared financial instruments. Enjoyed the article comment below and follow for more... Trade well, Live free Timon MATI Trader Also my socials are below thanks to Trading View.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
BACK TO THE FUTURE VS TRADINGI watched the Oscars recently and saw Michael J. Fox receive his humanitarian award. This brought me back to my childhood with the legendary Back to the Futures movie... Also this year we saw The Back to the Future stars Doc Brown (Christopher Lloyd) and Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) reunited and shared the stage at the New York Comicon 2022. This is where they reminisced over their iconic roles in the beloved film trilogy. There were a bunch of mixed emotions but mostly the feeling of nostalgia and childhood memories… And so, I watched the trilogy and I found it was super interesting to watch a movie when at the time, they were trying to predict the future by making a number of predictions about 2015… They certainly got a few spot ons such as: • Smart watches • Hover boards • Virtual reality headsets (which we use Quest, PlayStation and even HTC) • Talking from TV to TV (Instead we use tablets and smart phones, but close enough) • Donald Trump like figure as president They also made a few wrong predictions like: • People wearing their pockets inside out • Dogs having drones walk them (but we do have drones though) • Mechanical car fuel attendants • Pizza hydrators But overall, there is a very big lesson we can learn from this… If scientists, businessmen, producers, directors and actors can’t accurately predict the future, nobody can. And trading the financial markets are similar to “Back to the Future” movies. It’s unpredictable and normally plays out differently to what we think… Thing about the future is… When you know what is going to happen and you act according, the future changes… Let’s say you know what’s going to happen at a certain point in the future. If you act according to what will happen in the future, then your action will change the future. So, if the future is so unpredictable, how can anyone ever make money from trading? Simple. You don’t need to know the future when you trade When you take a trade, you should never try to predict where the market will go. Instead, we should base the future predictions and decisions on one word. Probability. If the market is moving up, there is a higher chance it will continue to move up. (It’s going up for a reason). If the market consolidates in a sideways formation and then the price breaks down, there is a higher chance the price will continue to move down. We say, go with the trend rather than against it… Our job is not to predict every turn and bank a profit from every point move. Our job is to anticipate a change in the market, wait for confirmation and then act accordingly to follow the MORE likely scenario… You might not get it right 30% to 40% of the time, but you can get it right 50% - 70% of the time during certain market environments… That’s all I do when I do trades and analyses… I base probabilities on where a market is more likely to go at a certain time… If I’m wrong, I adjust – rather than deny… This was a short reminder of why you don’t need to predict the markets to make it as a trader. Did you enjoy this short piece? Let me know in the comments. It's a passion to help share the knowledge I've gained over the last 20 years as a trader. Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
2
Is Trading Like Playing Poker? Is trading a form of gambling? With hesitance, I would say yes. However, I would rather call trading a form of strategic gambling as both require elements of risk, reward, strategy and decision making. In the next two weeks or so, I’m planning to publish a new online FREE book called “Poker Vs Trading”. Who knows, by the end of it all you may take up professional poker playing as well as trading… Let’s start with the similarities. SIMILARITY #1: We can choose when to play (Strategy) Traders and poker players don’t play every hand that is dealt to them. With poker, when a hand is dealt, we can choose to either play the hand, based on how strong it is, or we can choose to fold and wait for the next hand… With trading, we wait for a trading setup based on the criteria of our strategy i.e. MATI Trader System. You’ll then have the exact criteria and money management rules to follow in order to take a trade or wait for the next trade. SIMILARITY #2: Amateur poker players and traders tend to go the ‘tilt’ (Emotional roller-coaster) Emotions are a main driver which leads to traders losing their cash in their account or poker players losing their chips very quickly. With poker, you get players who let their emotions take over where they start betting high with an irrational frame of mind. These emotions lead them to losing their chips very quickly. This is when they enter the state of what is called ‘going the tilt’. With trading, amateur traders also tend to act on impulse and play on gut, instinct, fear and greed after they’ve undergone a losing streak or a winning streak. This often leads them to: ~ Taking a series of losses. ~ Losing huge portions of their portfolio. ~ Holding onto losing trades longer than they should. ~ Entering a mindset of revenge trading. SIMILARITY #3: We know when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em (Cut losses quick) We have the choice to reduce our losses when it comes to betting a hand or taking a trade. With poker, if the players start upping the stakes and you believe you have a weaker hand in the round, you can choose to ‘fold’ and lose only the cost of playing the ‘ante’. With trading, if you’ve taken a trade and it turns against you, you have a stop loss which will get you out at the amount of money you were willing to risk of your portfolio… SIMILARITY #4: We know the rake (Costs involved) There are always costs associated with each trade we take or each hand we play, which eats into our winnings. With poker, it’s the portion of the pot that is taken by the house i.e. the blinds and the antes. With trading, it’s the fees charged by your broker or market maker, in order to take your trade. These fees can be either the tax, spread and/or the brokerage. SIMILARITY #5: Aggressive trading and betting before the flop (High volatility) There will always be a time of strong market moves and high betting. With poker, you get times where players like to bet aggressively and blindly before the flop is revealed. It’s these times that lead to the amateur poker players losing their chips very quickly. With trading, you get economic data i.e. Non-Farm-Payrolls, black swan events and Interest Rate decisions when big investors and traders like to drive the market up or down before the news even comes out. NOTE: I ignore both forms of hype as it is can lead to a catastrophic situation. SIMILARITY #6: We bet and trade based on the unknown Every bet and trade we take and play is based on incomplete information of the future. With poker, we are dealt hands then bet on decisions based on not knowing what cards our opponents have and/or what is shown on the river. We then have the options to call, bet, raise or fold during the process.With trading, we take trades based on probability predictions without knowing where the price will end up at. This is due to new information which comes into the market including (demand, supply, news, economic indicators, micro and macro aspects). SIMILARITY #7: We lose A LOT! (Losses are inevitable) Taking small losses are part of the game with both poker and trading. With poker, it is important to wait patiently until you have a hand with a high probability of success. Some of the best poker players in the world, fold 90% of the starting hands, they receive. Some professional poker players can go through weeks and months without a win. With trading, we can lose over 40% to 50% of the time. In general, I expect around two losing quarters a year. I know that when there are better market conditions, it will make up for the small losses. SIMILARITY #8: You must learn to earn (Education is vital) You need to understand and gain as much knowledge as you can about poker and trading before you commit any money. With poker, you need to understand: • The rules of the game. • The risk per move. • The amount of money you should play per hand. Once you know these points, you’ll be able to develop some kind of game plan with each hand you play. With trading, you need to understand: • The MARKET (What, why, where are how?)NB* • The METHOD (What system to follow before taking a trade). • The MONEY (Risk management rules to follow with each trade) • The MIND (The frame of mind you must develop to succeed) SIMILARITY #9: Perseverance is the key ingredient to success You need to take the time and have the determination to become a successful trader and poker player. With poker, you’ll need to keep at it and apply strict money management rules with each hand played. With trading, you’ll need to know your trading personality, know which trading method best works you and understand your risk profile… I’ll leave you with a quote from Vince Lombardi (American football player, coach, and executive): “Practice does not make perfect. Only perfect practice makes perfect” Do you think trading is like poker? If you enjoyed this daily lesson follow fore more! Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader
Editors' picks
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
26
Q. How do you work out CFD Interest Swaps with an example?Q. How do you work out CFD Interest Swaps with an example? Answer: CFDs is an instrument where you pay a small amount of money to be exposed to the full value of the share. With CFDs, there are daily charges when you buy and daily income interest that you receive when you sell (go short). The charge is known as a ‘daily swap’ or ‘daily interest charge’. You can ask your broker what the annual interest swap rate is or you’ll most likely be able to find it on your platform… With my broker for example, the long swap (for when you buy) is -9.47% per year. And the short swap (for when you sell) is 2.71%. With your Shoprite trade, because you’re buying CFDs (which is a geared instrument), you’re essentially borrowing the money from the bank. This means, you have to pay interest on the borrowed funds (in order to be exposed to the full value). Those are the ‘swaps’ we’re talking about. Let’s say the Shoprite share is trading at R223.19 and the margin (initial deposit) to buy 1 CFD is 9.7% (R21.70). This means, when you buy 1 CFD for R21.70, you’ll be exposed to the full R223.19 worth of the share. If you buy 100 CFDs and pay R2,170 (100 CFDs X R21.70) you’ll be exposed to the full R22,319 worth of shares (100 shares X 223.19). And if you sold the 100 CFDs at R236.00, you would have been exposed to R23,600. On that R22,319 exposure, you’ll pay 9.47% (R2,113.60) interest (swap) per year. But luckily as traders, you don’t need to worry about paying the full amount, as we like to hold only for a short period of time. This means, each day you hold the CFD with exposure of R22,319 – you’ll only pay R5.49. (Exposure of your trade X 9.47%) ÷ 365 days. If the exposure never changed and you held onto your trade at the same share price you would pay R54.90 (after 10 days). However, we know that share prices move up and down each day. The higher the market goes up, the higher your exposure where you’ll pay slightly more. If the market price drops, you will pay slightly less. However, as traders we don’t tend to hold for more than a couple of days or weeks to curb the daily interest charges. If you have any other questions please ask in the comments :) Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso