THE KOG REPORTKOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would face a difficult week on the markets and will be looking for higher pricing on Gold, and if price did start with a decline, we would be looking for the levels 1970-65 for a strong support before attempting the long trade into the target regions we had above. We gave KOG’s bias level as 1965 bullish above and a target price of 2003 on our morning review and update. Looking at the move that occurred, it couldn’t have been anymore precise with the low being put in at 1965 and the target regions above completing. Another successful week on the markets with not only on Gold, but the numerous other pairs we analyse and trade.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
It’s the end of the month, so expect there to be some profit taking across the markets which will cause a lot of volatility. It’s a good idea for most traders, but especially new traders to sit out of the markets during these periods, rather spending their time on education, practicing, and improving their techniques and strategies. Gold, we can see higher pricing, however, again, how high are they going to take it?
We’re looking for two moves this week, either the long from the immediate support level or KOG’s bias level which we’ll issue, or a short if price continues to the upside from the open. We’re a too high to get a decent entry from this level, so Monday could be played sitting on the sidelines waiting for price to make a move into the levels we want before attempting a trade. Of course, we’ll also be waiting for our trusted Excalibur to guide us.
Levels of interest on the downside are the 1990-85 levels, where, if support holds, we feel an opportunity to long the market into the higher resistance levels could arise. We’ll be monitoring the 2010-15 resistance closely, if achieved, this is where we feel a reaction in price may take place, potentially giving bears an opportunity to short the market back down into the support levels below. A break of that level will continue the move into the previous order region 2030-35 so it could be an idea to hold a runner for higher pricing. A weekly and monthly close above that 2020 level is important for bulls and it’s likely there will be a fight for the close, so please trade this wisely, if you’re going to trade it.
On the flip, if price does continue to the upside from the open, we’ll again be looking at 2010-15 for a reaction in price, otherwise, we’ll trade this level to level long on the intra-day using our red box strategy until we feel there is an opportunity to short it back down.
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bullish above 1985 with targets above 2010 and above that 2015
Bearish on break of 1985 with targets below 1975 and below that 1965
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Tradingplans
Gold’s Bearish Divergence: Short Setup After Multiple RejectionHi Fellow Realistic Traders. Here's my latest price action analysis on Gold!
After hitting the multiple rejection area, OANDA:XAUUSD formed an inverted hammer and swing high. The chart and stochastic also indicate a bearish divergence, confirming a bearish reversal scenario or downward movement. Historically, when observing the current price correction on Gold, it often goes back to the exponential moving area 34 or near the Fibonacci ratio area. Therefore, we expect Gold to move downward to our target area.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/resistance area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on OANDA:XAUUSD ."
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
CRUDE OIL ALL PERSPECTIVE OF CHART Currently, all the movements I look at and position myself differently. It is important to show yourself all the possibilities and get rid of your emotions
if I see that the ABC correction is (LONG), it can easily lead to scam wick, which is also not excluded(SETUP-LONG) + Head and Shoulders Pattern(SETUP-LONG). Also, this could be an even bigger drop(Biggest leg down), which is my last option due to the economic situation
Acceptance below 200 and 50 Weekly Moving Average(SETUP-SHORT)
Trade Smart: 7 Steps to Building a Resilient Trading PlanIn the fast-paced world of trading, success is not just about seizing opportunities; it’s about having a plan to navigate the unpredictable seas of the financial markets. A well-crafted trading plan is a compass that guides you, providing direction, discipline, and a strategy to weather the storms. Today, we’ll break down seven essential steps to building a trading plan that not only suits your financial goals but also stands the test of dynamic market conditions.
Embarking on the journey of trading without a plan is akin to setting sail without navigation. A trading plan is your blueprint for success, offering a structured approach to decision-making and risk management. It’s not just for professionals; every trader, regardless of experience, needs a smart trading plan.
Step 1: Define Your Trading Goals
Begin your journey by defining clear and achievable trading goals. Whether you’re looking for short-term gains or long-term wealth creation, having tangible objectives keeps you focused. Your goals should reflect your financial aspirations, considering factors like the desired return on investment and the time frame in which you aim to achieve it.
In setting these goals, it’s essential to consider the S.M.A.R.T. criteria: Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound. This ensures that your goals are not vague aspirations but concrete targets that guide your trading activities.
Step 2: Assess Your Risk Tolerance
Understanding your risk tolerance is crucial in the world of trading. It’s not just about how much money you can afford to lose but also about your emotional resilience. Assess your risk tolerance objectively, using tools and questionnaires available online. This self-awareness will shape your risk management strategy.
To delve deeper into risk management, consider establishing a risk-reward ratio. This ratio helps you assess whether the potential reward justifies the risk you’re taking on a particular trade. It’s a critical element in ensuring that your trades are not only more likely to be profitable, but also align with your risk tolerance.
Step 3: Choose Your Trading Style
Trading styles vary, and what works for one may not suit another. Are you inclined towards the adrenaline of day trading, the patience of swing trading, or the strategic moves of position trading? Your trading style should align with your personality, time availability, and market conditions.
When choosing your trading style, it’s vital to consider your time commitment. Day trading, for example, requires more immediate attention, while position trading allows for a more relaxed approach. Your chosen style should not only resonate with your personality but also fit seamlessly into your daily routine.
Step 4: Develop a Robust Risk Management Strategy
Risk management is the backbone of any successful trading plan. Determine how much of your capital you’re willing to risk on a single trade and set stop-loss orders accordingly. It is crucial to practice proper position sizing. Avoid putting all your money on a single trade. A robust risk management strategy ensures you live to trade another day.
Another crucial aspect of risk management is diversification. Even with a well-defined risk tolerance, putting all your capital into one asset class or market exposes you to unnecessary risk. Diversifying your investments across different instruments and markets spreads risk effectively, providing a more stable foundation for your trading activities.
Step 5: Select Your Trading Instruments and Markets
The financial markets offer a plethora of instruments, from stocks and forex to commodities. Choose instruments that resonate with your expertise and interests. Consider diversification to spread risk effectively across different markets. Your chosen instruments should align with your overall trading goals.
In the process of selecting your instruments and markets, it’s beneficial to conduct thorough research. Understand the factors influencing each market, the macroeconomic conditions affecting specific industries, and the geopolitical events that might impact your chosen instruments. This knowledge enhances your ability to maintain discipline in implementing your trading plan.
Step 6: Create a Trading System
A trading system provides structure to your approach. Define entry and exit signals, identify key indicators, and set your preferred timeframes. A systematic and back-tested trading system provides a proven framework for making trade decisions, reducing the impact of emotional biases.
Building a trading system involves choosing technical indicators that align with your trading style and goals Whether it’s moving averages, Bollinger Bands, or the Relative Strength Index (RSI), each indicator brings a unique perspective to market analysis. Understanding how to integrate these indicators into your system enhances your ability to identify profitable trading opportunities.
Step 7: Regularly Review and Adjust Your Trading Plan
The financial markets are dynamic, and so should your trading plan. Regularly review your trading plan and make adjustments based on changing market conditions, personal experiences, and evolving goals. A flexible plan allows you to adapt to the ever-shifting landscape of the financial markets.
In the process of reviewing and adjusting your trading plan, it’s essential to keep a trading journal. Documenting your trades, the rationale behind each decision, and the outcome provides valuable insights. It allows you to identify patterns in your trading behavior, strengths to leverage, and weaknesses to address. A trading journal is a practical tool for continuous improvement that is underutilized by many traders.
Conclusion
Crafting a trading plan is not a one-time activity but an ongoing process. It’s a living document that evolves with you as a trader. Remember, trading is not just about making money today; it’s about sustaining and growing your wealth over time. By following these seven steps, you’re not just building a trading plan; you’re building a foundation for long-term success.
Trade smart, trade confidently, and let your well-structured plan be your guiding star in the vast universe that is today's market. Happy Trading!
GERMANY 30Pair : Germany 30
Description :
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame with the Breakout of the Upper Trend Line and Completed the Retracement. If it Breaks the Daily Descending Trend Line and Retest then Buy otherwise it will Complete its " 5th " Impulsive Wave
Entry Precautions :
Wait for the Breakout or Retest
EURGBP SELL | Day Trading Analysis Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Watch strong action at the current levels for SELL. GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity EURGBP
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Maybe an early punt but NOT quite a SHORT set up YET A short as high above $34k as possible i.e. +34.4 (stop above last high $35k, target above FWB:31K for about 2:1 R/R, rolling the dice at 50/50 chance hit rate) may be worth it as an early punt that I see myself would do in 2017
However
Daily RSI is still in overbought (81.8 over 76.26), not yet showing divergence and can be overextended for as long as 20 days (reference on 11Jan23 to 30Jan23)
Daily MACD is way above signal line with no sight of crossing
Also a price retracement into the blue zone at 0.5 Fibanocci may be a stretch so R/R may not be that good.
Hence it’s not quite a short set up yet
Overall, it’s a level to watch, but I’m not taking any position
EURUSD: ECB pauses interest rate hike as inflation shows signs The European Central Bank (ECB) declared that it will no longer be increasing interest rates as a result of a decrease in lending and declining inflation. Boris Vujcic, a member of the ECB Council, made the statement on Croatian state media, HRT1. President Christine Lagarde's ECB recently halted its extraordinary tightening campaign, keeping interest rates steady for the first time in almost a year.
The inflation rate for the euro zone is expected to drop to 3.1% this month from its peak of 10.6% in October 2022. Recent estimates of the economy's growth are in line with the ECB's 2% target. Commercial lenders have quickly changed the interest rates on loans and mortgages in reaction to these developments. Saver, however, feels less of an influence from these adjustments.
AUDUSD: Technical analysis of AUDUSD on October 26After failing to overcome resistance and touching below the psychological level of 0.6400, AUD/USD fell rapidly to the 2023 bottom around 0.6300. While it is possible that prices could stall in this zone, it could open the door to a drop to last year's low of 0.6170.
On the other hand, if the buyers return then the first level of resistance will appear at 0.6350, overcoming this mark will bring progress towards 0.6400. And it will be bolder if the bulls attack the 0.6460 mark and take the price to 0.6510.
USDCHF: Foreign exchange rates today October 25: The world USD iEarlier, survey data showed that business activity in the euro zone unexpectedly worsened this month as the recession spread across the region.
A survey on October 24 showed British businesses reported further contraction this month, with cost pressures continuing to ease and risks of recession pointed to.
URNM: Immediate potential to 55+, but if price breaks 10w MA......I cannot rule-out one final macro-decline wave towards support area 25-20.
I like the impulsive move from Mar. 2020 bottom towards Nov 2021 top, that had almost perfect match with the key Fibonacci retracements. Especially notice how Nov top at 51.75 coincides with 1.00% ext of wave (1) projected from wave (4) and near first key resistance zone of 1.764% (of w.(1) from wave (2)).
Though the long lasting correction from Nov'21 highs doesn't look finished, due to advance from mid-term Jul'22 lows having yet only three waves, I still can entertain bullish (diagonal) set-up if price manages to hold 10W MA, consolidate around Sep'23 highs and break out above 50 resistance line (as per the green count).
I also like how price got volume support while touching the 10W during local correction from the Sep'23 highs, showing that there is potential interest from institutional money around that area.
Trading plan: I have entered initial long position, with todays break-out above the cheat pivot area of 44.75. I will be quick exiting with small single digits loss, if price will be able to follow through the following days.
Important notice: Elliot waves and fibonacci retracements are a very subjective form of analysis and I don't personally trade out of them. I use them only for the purpose of gauging structural potential of any assets, that allows me to put more confidence when low-risk trading set-up emerges. Author's personal multi-years trading experience convinced him that analysis and opinion doesn't pay, only price pays and that one shall not ever argue with price.
20102023 - #GBPUSDYesterday's () level worked well. I said I was more biased short but asked only to short at 1.2180/88. Market came down rather slowly, rallied back to OP and failed, hitting the lower support level at 1.2090 before giving a rally of 100 pips to 1.2190 which is our sell limit before it came down 60 pips.
Daily candle closed with a doji which signify indecision. What is probably interesting is the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) was weak against USD, but EUR was up strongly. With GBPUSD with a doji, what is the next direction.
With price below the BZ, I will go with a move lower. Price is now below PZ, but I will like to look for a spike and rejection off 1.2176 max for a move to 1.2090 and even 1.2066.
180102023 - #GBPUSDYesterday I was bullish GBPUSD based on the price action on Monday and near term trend being up. Was looking for a dip for a move higher. I will not dare say that I am right on my view, as price dipped beyond my buy level and went down further, but eventually rallied strongly 70 pips from the lows. But even so, it only made a lower high, before cooling off and now is near the half point mark.
Such a move yesterday does open the question if Monday's bullish price action is just a pullback before further down or is it a near term low. IMO yesterday's move was a neutral to slightly bearish price action. Price opened between BZ and PZ thus it is neutral. Overall, not so clear but I would like to go with the bullish thesis and thus to look for a move higher, with a bounce off 1.2150 or so, with a max low at yesterday's low at 1.2130. The safer trade will be to let price goes back above 1.2180 to go long with stops at recent low.
No Rebound In Sight While Below 4320S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 10/02
Since our published trading plans two weeks ago pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4320 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated. This morning, the index is attempting to test the 4320 level. If the daily close is going to be above 4320, then our models will negate the bearish bias and initiate a mildly bullish bias.
The "higher for longer" monetary policy is yet to begin showing its impact on business earnings, and it could take one to two quarters more for us to see the earnings impact - and, hence the analyst forward estimates - which could have some more impact on the market multiples in the short-to-medium term. But, the near term bias will be determined by today's daily close as specified above.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4322, 4301, or 4277 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4319, 4297, 4273, or 4261 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4314 or 4288, and explicit short exits on a break above 4265. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger
GBPAUD Heading Lower By Frankfurt and London Session OpenGBPAUD sellside liquidity or sell stops taken at market open of the week, market is going for buyside liquidity or buy stops during the Asia session, my opinion is GBPAUD to heading lower by Frankfurt and London session after buyside liquidity or buy stops taken.
IMPORTANT: This is paper trade idea, not financial advice. Forex trading is a very high risk business, please ensure you master risk and money management before placing any live trade.
XAUUSD- Strategy on September 12Gold confined within two key averages, awaits US CPI for fresh direction
Gold price is treading water while defending the critical 200-DMA at $1,920 during early Tuesday dealings. XAU/USD price is losing the upside traction, as the United States Dollar (USD) finds its feet amidst a negative shift in risk sentiment and the buoyant tone seen around the US Treasury bond yields.
Important support zone: 1916 1905
Important resistance zone: 1930 1935
Gold trading strategy today
BUY GOLD 1914-1916
SL: 1908
SELL GOLD 1931-1933
SL: 1937
Gold trading strategy for the first day of the weekGold prices lost traction and fell to $1,920 during US trading hours on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield recovered to 4.25% after spending the first half of the day in negative territory, sending XAU/USD lower.
Last week (September 5-8, 2023), the USD price in the international market rose to a nearly six-month high amid concerns about global growth, especially in China, causing investors to pour rush into the US safe-haven currency.
This shows that in the coming week, the Dollar could potentially adjust, causing the gold price to retest 1935. In the worst case for gold plus good news for the Dollar, the possibility of gold falling to the price of 1905 is perfect. can happen during the trading session of September 12 and 13
XAUUSD- Is the strength of gold no longer important to the econoIn the initial hours of Monday's Asian session, gold prices were observed to be hovering at approximately $1,920 per troy ounce. Despite this, the precious metal managed to maintain its previous weekly close due to some assistance from the weakening US Dollar (USD).
The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the performance of the Greenback against six prominent currencies, is presently trading around 104.80. This value is slightly lower than its peak since April. However, there is an increase in US Treasury bond yields which may exert pressure on gold prices. Specifically, there has been a rise in yield for the 10-year US Treasury note by 0.52%, reaching 4.29%.
BTC ANALYSISPsychological Analysis: The market is strongly bearish and more and more FUD is loading. For now, FTx uncertainty regarding CRYPTOCAP:SOL is loading as we predicted a few months ago when watched the FTx data. It's not only CRYPTOCAP:SOL that is affected, but the entire Altcoin and BTC sector. We enter into the phase of FUD and fear which has not even started yet. Meanwhile, market makers are fake pumping altcoins to liquidate those shorts from above with sudden fake pumps, just to nuke it afterwards. It gives us hints that market makers know BTC's next move, and want to take out most of altcoin shorts with these fake pumps. At the same time, they send BTC into the boring sideways zone. Indeed, the next BTC leg down will fully nuke the Altcoin sector. You have been warned. For now, I am watching several options we might see for BTC before hitting my final target of $ 23,500. The best short entry for those that missed my call at 31k region is currently at $28.600 region. Pray that the market allows you to visit again if it happens. I would add more to my shorts. I have been mentioning $28.600 for a longer time to retest the breakdown of MA100 which happened on the 17th of August. So far we have not retested the breakdown, and at the same time, a big liquidity pool is perfectly matching in the same region. There are more than enough reasons for market makers to bring it to the $ 28,600 region. This is not a long call! However, general information on what might be the next moves of the market makers. Be prepared for all scenarios. All in all, zoom out, and the final target remains on the downside with a target of $23.500 as we spoke about an incoming sideway movement that took place as expected. This week is more volatile if important numbers released on Wednesday (CPI) and Thursday (PPI) are higher or lower than the expected numbers.
#BTC #BINANCE #FUTURES #TRADING
Morning Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 08/23
In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400.
While the index is between 4400 and 4350, expect sideways consolidation and a choppy market. It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4430, 4419, 4401, or 4392 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4425, 4416, 4405, 4399, or 4388 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4407. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:01pm EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades