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Tradingpsyhology

The "So-Called" Psychology of a Market Cycle!Greetings Dear Investors and Traders, today CryptoQueens, an educational post regarding the so-called Psychology of a Market Cycle. When making investment decisions, investors have a wide variety of tools at their disposal. While these tools can form the basis of a sound investment thesis, their effectiveness is limited by one’s emotions. Allowing emotions to dictate decisions is a common mistake made by many investors, yet they may not even realize it. People experience different emotions during these market cycles ranging from fear to greed. Below we will analyze, as well as you will find attached in the chart image the different emotions experienced by investors during market cycles which overwhelms the majority of the traders: Disbelief: This phase happens after the bottom has been hit. There is a sense of disbelief among investors about the rally. They believe just like it happened in the past few months, the markets will fall again. Their fear of making another mistake causes them to miss the optimal window to re-enter the market. Optimism: During this phase, the realization dawns on most of the investors that the rally is real. Investing during this phase if stocks are chosen well can give good returns. Enthusiasm: This is the time when the majority of investors are convinced about the market rally, therefore market demand rise. They believe that now is the time to be fully invested. Some naysayers still don’t believe in the market rally and advise caution. Euphoria: This is the phase where there is irrational exuberance in the markets. Investors share a collective dopamine as they think that they are genius because they made a fortune. It is advisable to stay cautious during this phase. Overconfidence/Greed: Investors continue to increase their positions despite high volatility. If you buy during this phase, you are sure to lose money, whatever you buy. Anxiety: Fear sets in, as losses begin to mount. Investors believe that the dip is taking more time than expected. This is the the moment when people are notified with margin calls due to the recent market fall. Anxiety kicks in. Denial: The herd ignores the market signs as market demand weakens. They believe that since their investments are in great companies, they will bounce back. Panic: Herd mentality takes over and market participants rushes to sell leading to widespread selling even at losses. This is a good time to buy extremely selectively for the long term as it may be very difficult to know even for well-informed investors whether we are in the denial phase, panic phase or capitulation phase. Capitulation: Market Participants accepts their losses and completely exit the market. They are selling close to the bottom of the cycle. Agony/Anger: Steep losses take a psychological factor in many investors and they start to blame the government, or anything correlated, perceiving it as market manipulation. Depression: This is the period when investors believe that their retirement savings are gone and their financial security is affected. They even start blaming themselves for investing. However, markets inevitably starts to recover. Conclusion: As an investor, you need to recognize these signals and never lose sight of the bigger picture. It is like Warren Buffett once mentioned. Be scared when others are greedy and greedy when others are afraid. Therefore, keep an eye on the fundamentals and behavioral factors that influence the market and always remain ahead of the game. Make sure you include this in your trading plan before to take action on it. If you liked it, make sure to support with a like, follow and a comment! Best Regards, CryptoQueens.
Education
by Crypto_Queens_Official
38
😱 Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)📉Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) / SHORT scenario. Fear of missing out, or FOMO, is the feeling of anxiety or regret that can occur when someone believes that they have missed an opportunity to invest in a stock or crypto currency that is increasing or decreasing in value. This feeling can be triggered by seeing others making money from a particular investment, or by observing the stock or crypto's value increasing or decreasing over time and thinking that one should have invested earlier. FOMO can be dangerous to investors because it can lead to impulsive buying or selling decisions that are not based on sound investment strategies. In the above scenario we can see the effect of FOMO in play. The price action breakdown of the trendline, indicating weak support and a flip of the trend. This psychological effect can be observed without the use of indicators and by just looking at the price action. A deeper look into order flow and Open Interest could further explain the trader's behavior on this particular effect that occurs. 🔴 ENTRY is based on the first major red candle after the breakdown, trying to knife-catch the price, based on no strategy and purely emotion of missing out a potential short position with a stop loss nowhere close to a potential supply zone where the price action could re-visit for confirmation of a downtrend. 🟢 ENTRY is based AFTER the retest of the trendline, on a potential supply zone where the price action is looking for a retest at this level before confirmation of further decline of price action. Stop loss is given above the last high, above the trendline. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work , Please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
The Psychology Of A Market CycleThe psychology of a market cycle refers to the emotional and psychological states that investors and traders go through as they react to market conditions. Here is a short summary of each stage of the market cycle: 🔵 Disbelief: At this stage, market participants are skeptical about the potential for a market rally or recovery. They may be hesitant to invest or trade, as they do not believe that the market has the potential to improve. 🔵 Hope: As market conditions begin to improve, investors and traders may start to feel more hopeful about the future. They may start to see opportunities for profit and become more willing to take risks. 🔵 Belief: At this stage, market participants start to believe that the market will continue to improve. They may become more confident in their investment decisions and become more willing to hold onto their positions for longer periods of time. 🔵 Euphoria: As the market continues to rise, investors and traders may become overly optimistic and start to believe that the market will continue to rise indefinitely. This can lead to excessive risk-taking and overconfidence. 🔵 Anxiety: As market conditions start to deteriorate, investors and traders may become anxious about the potential for losses. They may start to question their investment decisions and become more hesitant to take risks. 🔵 Denial: As market conditions continue to worsen, some investors and traders may start to deny that the market is in a downturn. They may continue to hold onto their positions in the hope that the market will recover. 🔵 Panic: At this stage, market participants may become panicked about the potential for further losses. They may start to sell their positions in a rush to get out of the market. 🔵 Capitulation: As market conditions reach their lowest point, investors and traders may give up hope and sell their positions, even at a loss. This is known as capitulation. 🔵 Anger: After the market has bottomed out, some investors and traders may feel angry about their losses and the perceived market manipulation or wrongdoing that they believe caused the market crash. 🔵 Depression: After experiencing significant losses, some investors and traders may feel depressed and lose motivation to engage in further investment or trading activities. 🔵 Disbelief: As market conditions begin to improve again, some investors and traders may return to a state of disbelief and skepticism about the potential for a sustained market rally. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work , Please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
Your Uniqueness in the MarketTake a look at this chart, or any chart of your choosing, and tell me what you see! Not just the technical terms and the direction of the market but explain what you are seeing, thinking and feeling as you read the market data from start to finish. If you got the responses from twenty different people, you'd receive twenty different perspectives with twenty different interpretations. Some of them overlapping in their theories and explanations while others violently contradict and oppose each other. The beautiful thing about trading is that we all at one time or another are correct. "Correct" being that their was a legitimate opportunity to place a trade and make money based on your unique perspective of the information. The difficult thing in trading is really understanding what we see and perceive in all of the market data. I want to emphasize... The difficult thing about trading is in truly understanding how we see and interpret market data in our own unique way. Some people see long, while others see short, and depending upon the system; on any particular trade, on any particular day, both sets of people are correct. All systems have winners and losers, its an unavoidable fact. The acceptance of this fact will help you understand that you don't necessarily need to go searching for someone else's way of trading, you only to need gain a thorough understanding of how you view things. What resonates with you and your uniqueness? Maybe its moving averages and RSI, maybe its price action and support and resistance, or maybe its simply the day of the week at a specific time. When you start to unpack your way of making sense of the market you can find your unique way of operating in it. If success in the market was primarily based on technical skills, and the use of tools, indicators, and spreadsheets. There would be a lot more profitable traders. Trading attracts some of the most brilliant minds, intellectual beasts, and academic rockstars, and yet over 90% of traders fail and are unsuccessful. You yourself, as you read this may realize you are a brilliant person yet you struggle to stay consistent with your trading. The answer to your problem is not solely in the technical skill, its likely hiding in the unexamined parts of your personality. If you know this, then you also know that awareness and application are two totally different things. You can be aware that you have a personal problem with following a trading methodology but feel totally powerless in correcting it. My question to you would then be, how much time have you spent experiencing your own unique style of trading? Stop fighting your nature, and embrace your expression. There are market fundamentals and market basics that every trader needs to understand. Price Action Structure Trend Risk Beyond this your style of trading is likely a combination of many different skills that you've accumulated from various sources. The important thing for each trader is to understand which skills resonate most with them. Which skills fit your unique market perspective. Which skills can you use to build a system of trading that allows you to account for the mixture of wins and losses, while keeping you in an optimal mental space, so that you may execute on your level of understanding. I think the challenge for every trader, is to take the time to identify a purpose in their trading. To understand why it is that you feel drawn to embark on such a challenging task. Those traders who stick with it, and generate some answers to these questions will have taken huge strides in understanding how the market serves as mirror. Reflecting back at you, the potential for you to fulfill your desires coupled with everything that you need to work on, and improve upon, on a very personal level. If you don't come from a trading and investing background, either from family ties or academia, then all of this becomes even more important. Self- taught traders need to understand their uniqueness in the market. You are the most important part of your trading system. It would be crazy not to give yourself the time and attention you deserve. Happy Trading!
UEducation
by LevelsArchitect
1
3 Ways Traders Can Prepare For SuccessComing into trading with only the desire to make money, often results in not making any. I didn't make a dime for 4 years till my lucky day came. Before it, like most traders, I gambled my way into the game with little to no knowledge. I started off with free information. (Youtube and Babypips were my buddies.) After gathering data from them for 2 weeks, I felt I'm ready, then funded my first trading account. Luckily, I doubled the account on my first day but blew it the next. It was awful but I repeated the process for 3 months till I gave up. However, I got back a month later. Because I was still hooked by the idea of making money wherever I am. Though at the same time feeling stressed, anxious, and depressed to see my hopes and dreams out of reach, I had faith. That I carried with me throughout the years, until one day, I found out what was holding me back: a short-term mindset. Which is what I'll show you how to escape from before it's too late. **Thus Begin By Thinking In Years Than Months** Ignoring this advice will be costly. It will cost you your time, money, and mental health. You don't want that. But you get that by being a short-term thinker. Which is a person who focuses on the now, with little regard for the future. Someone who focuses on short-term results at the expense of long-term interests. A trader who focuses on making money instead of focusing on the 3 stages of becoming a trader: 1. Learning to trade. 2. Becoming a trader. 3. Full-time (profitable) trader. It's almost impossible to reach stage 3. Yet it is possible when you begin the journey like a long-term thinker. Which is a trader who envisions, plans, and works toward the future. While ignoring the monetary side to focus on the skill (that will serve you till you meet bro, Jesus). Like what all medical students do. From the get-go, they know it will take them 6-7 years to become professional doctors. Being aware of this allows them to focus on the stages of becoming doctors. (But lucky for them, they make money along the way through student loans.) So, coming into trading with an idea that it will likely take you 5 years to become a consistently profitable trader, will assure that. Because it will keep you grounded, focused, consistent, and patient with the process. And that will allow you to enjoy it while growing fast. With that said, let me show you how you to prepare for trading success below: 1. Create a long-term vision. A clear vision with a plan will save you from falling into traps that will delay your progress. It will allow you to navigate through the dark cave till you reach the light. But that's only possible when you have a torch and a compass. Powerful questions and a plan of action. Questions help you to discover the path. A plan helps you walk the path. Thus to find out if trading is the right path, ask yourself: - Why do I want to become a trader? I know you are in it for the money (like I used to be), but that mindset will prevent you from getting it. So take your time answering this question. Don't rush because whatever answer you get will determine your success or failure! Once you're satisfied with your answer, start planning out your journey by... 2. Setting Objectives In simple terms, an objective is a measurable step you take to achieve a vision. For a trader who's in the first stage of "learning to trade" while working a 9-5 job, the vision could be to become a full time professional trader. And the objective could be to buy a trading course from a mentor you perceive as legit, then study and practice till you reach the 3rd level. To discover that objective, the reason behind it, and how to achieve it, you need to ask yourself: - What do you need to do? - Why do you need to do it? - How you’re going to do it? After figuring out all that, move on to the next step, which is... 3. Keeping your job Do not quit your job before becoming a profitable trader. It will save you from unnecessary mental and emotional pain that are caused by forcing profitable trades to pay bills. That’s a bad approach to trading. It always delivers opposite results that will definitely make you stressed, anxious, depressed, and unsuccessful. You need not worry about money along your journey, so you can focus on the process of becoming an elite trader. I’ve made that mistake and it cost me too damn much. So, keep your job to save up at least 2 years of monthly expenses that will get covered once you’ve decided to become a full time trader, and save for a 6 to 7-figure prop firm trading account to manage once you’ve resigned from your job. Follow the above steps and witness the fruits of being a long-term thinker who focuses on the processes instead of results.
Education
by Doji-2k1
3
Dealing with losses...before they happenLosses are part of this business. People do not react well to losses. Badly handled losses in trading can trigger bigger losses. Furthermore, these have the dangerous potential of wiping out entire accounts. If you want to make it as a trader you need to have a solid psychological approach to accept and handle losses. Lots of internet articles are suggesting that the way to prevent debilitating losses in trading is to follow risk management rules. What are those rules about? Basically, they are simple thresholds indicating the maximum $ /percentage you should risk per trade, day, month, etc. Having such rules is a must but it’s not enough. You can still lose much if your mind is not actually prepared to implement them. That’s why many traders set rules only to break them in the most inappropriate moments. People do not follow their own risk management rules because they are not psychologically prepared to accept losses. They are not prepared for the pain caused by a loss or a series of losses. The single most efficient way to handle losses is to accept them consciously and unconsciously. One of the most dangerous ways to react to losses is “revenge” or “on tilt” trading. This happens when the pain caused by a loss is so high that the trader loses his / her rationality and only wants his / her money back, disregarding most of the things he/she actually knows about the market. The brain cannot accept the emotional discomfort and the fastest solution is to quickly find a trade to make the money back. Most of the time, the quickest trade is in the same instrument (FX pair, stock, etc) that generated the initial loss, by averaging down/up or flipping. Some of the most experienced traders can work their way out but the vast majority will only make things worse. In order to prevent this kind of psychological slippage, you need to prepare your mind to consciously and unconsciously accept losses BEFORE they occur. With the help of a psychotherapist or by yourself you can perform visual exercises where you will imagine yourself being in a losing position and reacting the right way. This would desensitize you if done right. The technique I always use each time I open a position is to do that desensitization process “on the fly”. I watch the market and I see an opportunity. BEFORE opening the position, I imagine myself in the posture of facing that trade ending in a loss. After that, I imagine that trade going the way I want. I might even go back and forth (in my mind) a few times between losing and winning. This way, I prepare my unconscious mind. If I cannot imagine myself easily handling the loss (or the win) I will simply reduce size. Pay attention though, I am not recommending here to imagine yourself constantly losing because this would do more harm than good. This would be a separate topic about the power of visualization exercises.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
12