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XBTUSD H4 chart (8/12/2019)Good morning, traders. As mentioned in Discord this weekend, the triangle we were watching appears to have been wave B of the correction and price is currently printing wave C. At this time, I am expecting the 5th subwave of wave C to complete in the lower orange demand, likely around the S1 pivot. My upper targets remain the same as they were last week with my interest at the $13000 level. There is a possibility that price printed a short 5th subwave on wave C. If that is true, then we should see price close above the pivot on the H4 rather than head further down. At this time, we can see that the H4 RSI has retested previous resistance as support and is slightly bearish at 46. If RSI continues to drop, then a close below the horizontal purple line sets up hidden bullish divergence as long as price remains above $9369.30. Stoch RSI is nearing a bullish cross with lots of room to run. While the H4 RSI has been moving down from overbought, the H1 RSI has been moving up from oversold (currently sitting slightly more bullish than the H4 at 48) and its Stoch has a lot of room to run as well. I mentioned that it's possible price has completed wave C and is headed up. While it is possible, I am leaning toward the lower target mentioned above first. If you make this chart yours and then zoom into the M30 TF you will see the local TR that is printing. With Stoch RSI overbought and nearing the top, as well as price sitting in the HVN, it seems more likely that we will see price drop below the TR's support and print a Spring before heading up. However, there are no guarantees for either direction at this time so traders should remain cautious and hold off entering until confirmation of either direction is noted. The weekly recently confirmed a 2 month long hidden bullish divergence. Its Stoch RSI is now crossing bullishly. While this is only the beginning of the week, if price ends up for the week then we will see that bullish cross which would only increase the odds that price continues higher. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
4
BTCUSD M30 chart (8/7/2019)Good morning, traders. Last night, I was watching for a possible HnS to target the blue zone in the mid-$10000s. This morning I woke up to see that price had returned above the neckline without reaching that point. Instead, it bounced in the orange demand zone that printed on July 13th. In doing so, it did print the H4 hidden bullish divergence I said I was waiting for in yesterday's TV update. At this point, there are two possible roads I can see price taking. I am leaning toward price printing a triangle as drawn. We have an ABC for the A wave and appear to be working on an ABC for the B wave. The other possibility is that price prints a flat correction resulting in a flag. This latter possibility would still have price printing an ABC for the A and B waves but then 5 waves down for the C wave. That C wave would have price targeting the blue demand zone. Why am I leaning toward the triangle rather than the flat correction? There are two reasons: 1) In terms of the local TR, we have seen expanding volume and increasing candle spread from the July 28th swing low suggesting a move up from a Spring and, if so, then 2) we expect consolidation at the top of the TR before heading higher, which is what we are seeing. This consolidation is at the local TR resistance, the 2018 TR resistance, and the flag resistance denoted by the dashed red line. The target, based on the height of the local flag, is still the yellow box that I have had in the low-to-mid $13000s. This target should be wave 5 off the double bottom, as shown. We could then expect a retracement to the blue zone at that time. Price has been printing the ascending broadening wedge and the blue zone aligns with the target based on the height of the wedge. This would take price just beyond the 50% retracement of that 5 wave advance giving us a pretty good larger wave 2. H4 RSI printed hidden bullish divergence, as mentioned above, on RSI and MACD's histogram. Stoch RSI remains oversold but is nearing a break out. RSI is bullish at 63. Our premium Discord members now have access to our trading basics course included with their membership! We continue to add more content for new traders to learn how to be more effective and consistent when trading the market. H1 RSI is nearing its descending resistance. A close above this resistance should indicate further price appreciation. Stoch RSI is topped out and likely to need a rest before RSI breaks above its resistance. Hidden bearish divergence is printing on MACD's histogram supporting the belief that price will pullback before heading higher. This pullback would be inline with the outline of expected price movement. M15 shows the IHS that printed with a target of ~$12225. Price appears to be printing a pennant/flag on that TF which would then have a target of $12500/$12525, based on the height of the flagpole. I am not a fan of this target because it really doesn't align with any other areas of confluence. However, the height of the flag as a target would align with the generally expected target of the IHS at around $12225. As always, if price continues moving higher than anticipated, traders can utilize the pivots on the various TFs as possible targets until price prints a larger retracement. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
5
BTCUSD H1 chart (8/6/2019)Good morning, traders. Over night, Bitcoin saw a high of $12320.40 on Coinbase, promptly followed by a drop to $11598.41. Price has continued to drift down less than $100 since then and found support at the R1 pivot and H2 demand. So far, we have seen a good reaction out of that demand and price finds itself sandwiched between the H1 and H2 21 EMAs, just below the descending flag resistance of the dashed red line. The H1 Stoch RSI is oversold, bouncing off the bottom, and crossing bullishly while RSI is slightly bearish at 47. The H4 Stoch RSI still has room to drop and the RSI remains bullish at 63. Even though we have demand making itself known, I don't know that I trust the local TR at the moment. There appears to be supply continuing to show up at the bottom of it on the lower TFs suggesting that those buying the dip may be getting sold into at this time. The H4 MACD is attempting to cross bearishly, but there is another two hours remaining in the candle so traders should use caution and pay attention to how this plays out over that time. The MACD's histogram is nearing a negative flip, and if it does then we will likely see hidden bullish divergence print on it. The last negative spike was on August 4th at $10654, so price would need to drop below that to invalidate the likely div that will begin printing if price continues to retrace. I will be looking for a bounce around the $10745-$01805 level if that retracement occurs. The M30 shows bearish divergence printed on RSI and MACD as price hit the overnight high. It also shows bullish divergence printed on RSI with the recent swing low. However, MACD remains without a div for the time being. Further appreciation of price from here over the next 20 minutes would likely see that bull div print on MACD. The daily candle is printing a long-legged doji which is best understood as a "pause." If the candle closes like this, then we will look for the following candle to confirm direction -- a green-bodied candle tomorrow would suggest further upside. I remain cautiously optimistic about further price appreciation before a more substantial pullback, but we need to see price move above the H1 21 EMA to start putting that into motion. Our targets remain the two red lines we noted yesterday based on the Adam and Eve double bottom and the descending wedge. That would get price up around the H1 R3 pivot. So far, we have merely seen price touch above the R2 pivot and the drop back toward the R1 pivot, as we would normally expect. So while people continue to say that price MUST retrace, I want to remind you that price does not HAVE to do anything at all. It is a constant negotiation between supply and demand. Our premium Discord members now have access to our trading basics course included with their membership! We continue to add more content for new traders to learn how to be more effective and consistent when trading the market. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
6
BTCUSD D1 chart (8/5/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin has continued pushing higher this past weekend, ultimately marking $11860 on Coinbase before stalling out in supply. This is also the flag resistance and the median of the Andrews Pitchfork pulled from the July 17th swing low, July 20th swing high, and July 28th swing low. A pullback at this point shouldn't surprise anyone, but if we want the double bottom target to remain valid, then we don't want to see it break below the blue zone. However, price does not HAVE to pullback at this time. The H1 Stoch RSI has already reset more than 50% and the H4 Stoch RSI, while high, still has room to continue higher before attempting a reset. The target based on the height of the descending wedge is $13465 while the Adam and Eve double bottom target is $13150. The D3 and weekly charts appear to have confirmed their 2-month-long hidden bullish divergence with both TFs having a lot of room to run, comparatively, in their RSI and Stoch RSI. The weekly candle closed extremely bullishly, engulfing the previous two and a half weeks worth of candles. Price has moved bullishly above the daily pivot. Stoch RSI is topped out on the daily but, as we know, can remain that way for a while as price continues to push higher. Daily RSI is only at 64, so it has a lot of room to run. While daily volume isn't significant in comparison to what was seen at the beginning of this corrective leg, it is expanding relative to where it was prior to this move up and candle spread is increasing, which is what we want to see. Our premium Discord members now have access to our trading basics course included with their membership! We continue to add more content for new traders to learn how to be more effective and consistent when trading the market. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
15
XBTUSD H1 chart (8/2/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin hit a high of $10580 over night. This is still about $200 lower than my target from yesterday and price is starting to show signs of fatigue as it stalls at the H1 and H12 HVNs, just above the R1 pivot. The H4 RSI and Stoch RSI are overbought, however the H1 RSI is dropping back under overbought with a Stoch that is just now trying to push out of oversold. This gives price a bit of room to move up before a bigger pullback is seen on the H4. The green H1 supply zone, just above price, remains my immediate target, with the green zone above that as a secondary target. I expect to see an initial retracement toward the orange zone at $10200-$10300, potentially confirming that possible ascending channel, if price is rejected at the initial target. I will consider continuation to the downside if price drops below the pivot at $9770. Until then, the assumption is a pullback before pressing higher toward the EQ of the upper blue zone near $11580. On the off-chance that strong demand suddenly appears, which I don't expect at this time, and sends price through the channel resistance and secondary target, then my expectation is for rejection at the R2 pivot at the bottom of the blue zone. In this scenario, I would expect to see a pullback toward $10800-$10850 before price heads higher. As always, these are rough estimates based on current charts, but I continually update my thoughts throughout the day for our premium Discord members. The H12 is printing a TD 9 sell signal, with a topped out Stoch RSI, increasing the odds that we will see a pullback happening sooner rather than later. However, that candle has more than 10 hours remaining until close. The H12 RSI is also printing hidden bearish divergence, but this will be invalidated if price moves above $11132. Daily RSI is bullish at 53 and Stoch RSI has entered overbought. The D3 printed a TD 9 buy signal at yesterday's candle close and appears to be confirming the 2 month hidden bullish divergence, as does the weekly. The current weekly candle has almost completely engulfed the previous week's candle. A weekly close above $10591.50 will engulf the previous two weekly candles. Our premium Discord members now have access to our trading basics course included with their membership! We continue to add more content for new traders to learn how to be more effective and consistent when trading the market. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
4
XBTUSD H4 chart (8/1/2019)Good morning, traders. It is now August and Bitcoin continues to rise as expected. Volume hasn't been significant just yet, so traders should continue to monitor movement. Yesterday's daily candle had a ~$500 spread which should have confirmed the pending reversal we had been watching for the previous few days as dojis were printed, along with the daily TD 9 buy signal. After exiting the large descending wedge, price found resistance at the daily 21 EMA which is also currently aligned with a significant support/resistance level as noted on the daily chart. Overnight, price found support on the lower pitchfork tine and appears to be setting up for a bullish push through the pitchfork's median. As mentioned yesterday, daily volume has been increasing but I'd like to see it expand at a greater rate. The charts get a little busier as you zoom in on them, after you make them yours per the instructions below. The H4 chart shows price reversing at the top of the purple TR and ascending support. Price may be printing a flag, and the target based on the height of the flagpole is ~$60 higher than yesterday's first target in the $10700-$10800 range while aligning almost perfectly with the pitchfork resistance. The possible H4 hidden bearish divergence I mentioned that traders should watch yesterday still has not printed. We've seen a bit of a pullback, but overall price and RSI continue to rise steadily. A touch above the swing high at $10300 on Bitmex will invalidate that possible divergence. The orange zone just above price on the H4 TF is the supply that price needs to push through to continue higher. Stoch RSI on the H4 briefly dipped below overbought but is currently curled up nearing a bullish cross once more. The H1 shows RSI retesting resistance as support before bouncing higher and clearing the next descending resistance. Stoch RSI is at 47 and rising steeply but with a lot of room left to run. Smaller TFs like the M30 and M15 suggest a pause before price heads higher as the Stoch RSI on both TFs is topped out. Price is bullishly above the H1/H4 pivot, as well as the 21 EMA on those TFs. Our premium Discord members now have access to our trading basics course included with their membership! We continue to add more content for new traders to learn how to be more effective and consistent when trading the market. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
2
XBTUSD H4 chart (7/31/2019)Good morning, traders. As with yesterday, not a whole lot has changed. Price continues to drift upward with no real conviction yet. Price dropped into the yellow box as I mentioned it was likely to do during yesterday's live stream and has now hit the upper yellow box I drew as well. It was an easy $350/$400 move for anyone paying attention during the stream. RSI on the H4 and H6 TFs finally made its way through the resistances that I have been watching. At this point, price is at the top of the high volume node that price has been working through, and above the H4 pivot, so a close above $9900 should have price clear for a move up to the R1 pivot and higher volume node at $10440. However, the lack of volume at this time remains a concern and could curtail any possible attempt at a move up. The H4 is on a TD 8 sell and Stoch RSI is topped out while price has found resistance at the same ascending resistance line that has been keeping it in check over the past 3-4 days. While none of this guarantees that price will reverse at this point, we would likely need to see a pop through that resistance, toward ~$10280/$10300, so that price can retrace back to that resistance and test it as support before reaching the target based on that small wedge's height which is the H4 200 MA at the HVN around $10730, just a bit above the H4 R1 and daily pivots8:27 AM 7/31/2019. The target based on the large wedge's height is just above the H4 R5 pivot at ~$13600. The purple vertical line denotes the time of the FOMC announcement. Up to this point we haven't seen BTCUSD react to any FOMC announcements, however this will be the first time that a rate cut is made (expected at this time). With the low volatility, this has the potential to be a catalyst but we will have to see how it plays out. If we can't see that pop, then it's increasingly likely that we will see possible hidden bearish divergence print as showing with the red line on RSI. Remember, this is in the process of printing but has not printed and confirmed yet. Yesterday's daily candle printed a TD 9 buy signal and today's daily candle appears to signal continuation up. As I have been mentioning, the D3 is printing hidden bullish divergence, as is the weekly, and may be in the process of confirming it. D3 Stoch RSI bounced off the bottom and is nearing a bullish cross. The D3 TF is printing a TD 9 buy signal, but this candle does not close for another 1.5 days, so anything can still happen by the time it does. The previous 3 days shows slightly expanding volume and increasing candle spread, but it's nothing significant yet. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
1
XBTUSD D1 chart (7/30/2019)Good morning, traders. Nothing has really changed from yesterday. I am still watching the same levels for up or down and still waiting for the H4 and H6 RSI indicators to cross above their resistances. Price has not moved definitively in either direction but it has continued to contract. Zooming out to the daily, we can see that the last three days have created smaller daily ranges within the previous day's range. This will invariably lead to a pop in whichever direction price breaks out. The possible Adam and Eve double bottom remains in play, as does the descending wedge whose resistance price is consolidating toward. Daily Stoch RSI is attempting a bullish cross in oversold and RSI has recently closed above its descending resistance and tested that resistance as support. The possible double bottom has also created a possible descending triangle, though based on volume it seems less likely than more likely at this time. The target of this triangle would be ~$7040. The H1 RSI is currently pushing through its resistance but Stoch RSI is just about topped out. We need to see a good thrust up before Stoch resets but that means demand needs to show up. Supply has consistently shown itself between $9550 and $9750 for the past two days, while demand shows up between $9100 and $9400. On the positive side, the M15 and M30 Stoch RSI have been resetting without a lot of negative price reaction. So if we can see those lower TF Stochs reset then it's possible they might be able to lead the way to the pop up needed. Tomorrow is the FOMC announcement so it is possible that we could have more lackluster sideways action until that time. For those interested in such things, the daily is printing a TD 9 today. This doesn't guarantee a reversal, but it is a pause in the trend direction that warns you that a reversal may be incoming. Combined with the significant demand that continues to show up at $9100, the possible double bottom, the descending wedge, and the flat correction that has already printed, as well as the hidden bullish divergence printing on the D3 and W1 TFs, it seems that the odds favor a move up. But, remember, no matter how good the chart looks there are no guarantees so adhering to strong risk management remains imperative. Anything else is just gambling, at best. I will be live streaming this morning at 10 a.m. CST/3 p.m. UTC on youtube.com/TexasWestCapital where I will be discussing all of this in greater detail, answering questions, and more. So be sure to stop by! _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
3
XBTUSD H1 chart (7/29/2019)Good morning, traders. Things got interesting near yesterday's close with price dropping and then rocketing back up. This was a very strong reaction out of demand at $9100 following a low volume sell off. As a matter of fact, that pop up had the largest M30 volume that we have seen since July 18th and the swing low nearly found the July 17th swing low. This led to a large, $650 spread long-legged doji printing on the H4 and a slightly larger-bodied doji on the D1. Normally, in such a case, we would expect price to ultimately continue higher. With price finding support at the M15 pivot this morning, this is what we are going to watch for now but we have to keep in mind that we are still seeing decreasing daily volume. Until we see expanding daily volume coupled with expanding candle spread, there is no guarantee of either direction. In printing this swing low yesterday, price has potentially set up an Adam and Eve double bottom. A close above the swing high of $11132 would confirm this and set up a target of $13180 based on the height of the double bottom. The W1 printed tweezer bottoms which generally leads to a reversal to the upside, however H4 and H6 RSI haven't yet closed above their descending resistances yet. As I have been mentioning since last week, these are the main indicators I am watching for confirmation of a possible reversal to the upside. The D3 is still printing that hidden bullish divergence that we've been watching for a while now, so it has not been confirmed yet. But we also have the W1 printing hidden bullish divergence as well, and if this week closes higher, then we could see the confirmation on both TFs. Why might this week close higher in spite of all the bearishness running rampant on CT, TV, and YT? The FOMC is expected to lower interest rates this week. That will weaken the dollar and, as a result, anything valued against the dollar (all things held equal) should see a rise in that value. But first things first, price needs to close above the H1/H4 pivot at $9775, and in order to do that it needs to close above the H1 21 EMA which it is currently banging against. This will pull the H1 and H4 RSI's above their resistance which should indicate continued demand pressure. I have noted a few diagonal support and resistance levels to watch. If price makes it through the grey demand zone then I will first be looking for it to bounce off the S1 pivot just below $8860. Beyond that, I will watch for a bounce off the descending red support line. So nothing has really changed from last week. All this short term movement between $9100 and $10300 remains noise. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD H4 chart (7/26/2019)Good morning, traders. Price didn't close out the daily as strong as it started it, yesterday, but before you get too bearish let's take a look at the H4 picture. Stripping out most of the noise, this is what we get -- price nearing daily descending resistance while printing a possible descending wedge. We can see supply volume contracting significantly as this TR has developed (other than the one outlier volume bar ten days ago which was needed to push price below that local swing low) while demand volume has continued to expand. The lows are printing a much less steep decline than the highs which tells us that demand is showing up and increasing, which is what the demand volume expansion tells us as well. RSI is nearing its resistance and Stoch RSI is targeting a bullish cross if we can see price move to the upside in the next two hours. I would expect to see a strong demand candle print on price's break through that daily descending resistance. I have noted a possible double bottom printing, but this won't be confirmed until price closes above the swing high between the lows. This would have price targeting the $10840 level in the short-term, taking price above the H4 pivot, with a possible larger target of the $13800+ swing high that was set a month ago. Further downside movement would have me watching the S1 pivot followed by the descending support line for the bounce. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
3
XBTUSD M15 chart (7/25/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday's YouTube video updated was titled "Are you ready for the bounce?" and we did get the bounce. In Discord, I made sure our members were aware of the bullish divergence on the H1 (which also showed up on the H4) following the TD 9 on the H6 which warned us that this move was likely incoming. The RSI resistances on the various TFs that I mentioned yesterday were broken as well which should've signaled for traders to go long. Price is now above channel resistance, as well as the H1 and H4 21 EMAs, and has an immediate target of $10360-$10415. Reaching this price level will pull price above the H4 pivot and back above the TR support. My green and orange box targets still remain valid at this time. I have noted the next level of H4 resistance for RSI to get through and that appears to coincide with the descending dashed resistance above price. The daily is printing a large bullish engulfing candle after a short downtrend. Stoch RSI is targeting a bullish cross if price closes here or higher at the end of the day. The daily pivot stands at ~$10700 and a close above it will have price above the 21 EMA as well which would be bullish for the pair. There is a daily supply block at $11336-$11804. Zooming out to the daily chart, you will see it highlighted in blue and can note that it sits just at/below the 2018 TR resistance (red horizontal line). You can also note that my green target box is at the upper half of that block. I outlined the very local TR and price movement on the M15. The recent price drop this morning appears to be nothing more than a retest of previous swing high resistance as support at the EQ of the blue zone which printed hidden bullish divergence on the M15. It may have printed it on the M30 as well, but we need to see price heading up from here to confirm it. I have also included the current possible ascending channel that I am watching at this time. Right now, we want to see the M15 R1 pivot continue to hold as support and price to rise from here. I will be live streaming about this and more in about 50 minutes at 10 a.m. CST/3 p.m. UTC on the YouTube link below. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
1
XBTUSD 1H chart (7/24/2019)Good morning, traders. We saw an initial bounce out of the demand zone only to gain some momentum to push back deeper into it. In doing so, what was originally viewed as a poorly-printed descending broadening wedge has become a much more well-formed descending channel and price is currently knocking at that channel's EQ after bouncing off the bottom of the blue demand zone. Nothing has changed in my outlook at this time as price has done nothing uprising. So far, it continues to move as I suggested traders should watch for it to do. With the printing of the descending channel traders should look for price to close above channel resistance before entering to limit risk associated with a long entry. This will get price above the H1 21 EMA and set up an initial $535 target above the point of breakout based on the height of the channel (i.e. if price breaks through the descending channel's resistance at $9600 then the initial target would be $10135). If price continues lower first, then the orange and blue demand zones should be watched carefully for a bounce if price falls below the 78.6% retracement at $9519. The S1 pivot sits at the top of the orange zone around $9405. The larger grey demand zone that encompasses them is the daily demand block, which is why we've seen such good reactions out of it. The H4 RSI has not broken its overhead resistance yet suggesting that if it does it will likely indicate upward progression of price and it remains just a bit above oversold at this time. The H1 RSI has recently bounced out of oversold and is targeting its own overhead resistance. While Stoch RSI remains oversold on the H4, it is bullish on the H1 and targeting overbought. As far as my targets go, the green box should be the generally expected wave B target with the orange box being the occasional wave B extension or possible wave 3. What I mean by that is if price only manages to reach the green box before reversing, then it increases chances significantly that this bounce upward is likely just the X wave of a WXY combo correction. If so, then that would ultimately lead price lower, toward the CME gap fill that traders are obsessing over. Traders continue to concentrate on the CME gap fill and lower TFs rather than paying attention to the larger TFs. As I have reminded traders, the 3D RSI printed a large hidden bullish divergence between June 3rd and July 21st. It also just pushed through its descending resistance while price continues to find support on the 21 EMA. Stoch RSI remains oversold with RSI still bullish at 52.57. Supply volume has continued dropping significantly throughout this month-long correction which is what we expect to see as the correction plays out. While the last three days has seen slightly increasing volume and slightly increasing candle spread, it has not yet been convincing in terms of continued supply dominance as it remains much lower than the previous price drops around the TR support level. If supply volume becomes noticeably larger with corresponding growth in candle spread, then it becomes of interest re: signalling much lower prices. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
4
XBTUSD 4H chart (7/23/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday I warned about initiating a position at the EQ of the local TR as it was unclear whether price was headed up or down. Price ended up heading down as we can see. I mentioned that, if price dropped, I would be looking for it to bounce out of the blue demand zone or, if strong volume came in with the supply, then I would be watching for a bounce at the S1 pivot. So far, price is in the blue demand zone, so we should be watching to see if it bounces from this area since volume, so far, hasn't been significant at all. The previous 4H candle again shows you why dojis are merely pauses and not necessarily reversals. Dojis during a trend require the next candle to confirm continuation or reversal. Traders should be watching this candle for a large lower wick which would be bullish and would also print tweezer bottoms suggesting a reversal incoming. Currently, price has almost touched the 61.8% retracement of the most recent bounce. A touch of the S1 pivot would have price just beyond the 78.6% retracement. I have outlined a possible descending red wedge, however until price actually bounces off the wedge support and targets wedge resistance, it could still fall below it. RSI has almost reached oversold again but Stoch RSI is oversold and nearing bottoming out. The 4H volume has not been significant though it did rise through yesterday morning. Today we see the volume spikes near that same level but the candle spreads are much smaller which tells us demand is showing up at these lower levels. The question is, will there be enough to reverse price direction from this point? The 1H RSI is printing bullish divergence at this time but we need to see price continuing higher to confirm it. The RSI resistance has been noted on the different TFs and should be watched. 1H volume has increased noticeably over the previous period but the candle spread remains small, again telling us that demand is attempting to overcome supply. Stoch RSI is nearing a possible bearish cross. The M30 RSI is printed bullish divergence and is currently attempting to confirm it as it nears a break of its resistance. While Stoch RSI is much higher on this shorter TF, it is curling up for a possible bullish cross. My targets remain the green and orange boxes for now. With a clear ABC completion on the daily, we must now follow price action to see if that is the end of the correction or if we have a combo which will ultimately see price heading toward the mid-$8000s. However, we should generally expect price to target that ~$12000 level before doing so. The 3D chart shows multiple hidden bullish divergence following each other and RSI is retesting resistance as support. Stoch RSI on this large TF bounced in overbought and recently crossed bullishly. Price remains supported by the pivot. I will be streaming on YouTube and Twitch at 10 a.m. CST/3 p.m. UTC and would love for you to join me if you have the chance. You can search TexasWestCapital on both platforms. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
1
XBTUSD 4H chart (7/22/2019)Good morning, traders. After making a high of $11132 this weekend, Bitcoin's price has seen some pullback. It appears that price may be printing a triangle as it completes the local TR. Currently, price is sitting just above the TR's EQ. It's never a smart idea to initiate a position when price is in this area. Traders will save themselves much stress and capital by patiently waiting at this point. If price continues below the TR support, then I would be looking for price to bounce out of the blue demand depending on how strong the supply volume is as price heads toward that level. Strong supply incoming would have me watching for the bounce off the S1 pivot at $9405 instead. If price continues up from here, then there are two possibilities: 1) likely consolidation around the top of the local TR before pushing higher toward my green or orange boxes, or 2) that move to the top of the TR would complete the D leg of the triangle with the E leg then following, no lower than the ascending dotted support line, before price pushes toward those green and orange boxes. The 1H RSI is currently testing its resistance and Stoch RSI crossed bullishly earlier this morning. Both indicators have a lot of room to run to the upside. Price currently sits above the pivot. The 4H RSI recently printed hidden bullish divergence while Stoch RSI is potentially crossing bearishly. However, there is still 2 hours left in this candle, so it's too early to tell how it will close. Price is finding support on the 21 EMA at this time, above the larger blue TR's support, and resistance at the descending channel EQ. The daily chart shows the hidden bullish divergence that printed just under a week ago, as well as RSI having broken through its resistance. Stoch RSI is threatening to cross bearishly, but with another 9 hours left til close it's too early to know what will happen. We see price consolidating around the dailiy pivot and descending channel EQ, which often signals continuation upward, but until price closes above the 21 EMA traders should continue to be cautious. Important to note is that supply volume has continued to drop off which is most often indicative of supply exhaustion. The 3D chart looks strong. Price printed a large bullish engulfing candle while bouncing off the 21 EMA and finding resistance at the pivot and descending channel EQ. This came on the heels of RSI printing hidden bullish divergence. As such, the idea that price will print lower lows without at least first heading higher for another week or so seems far-fetched. The hidden bullish divergence needs time to play out and this is a rather large TF. Stoch RSI is currently crossing bullishly in oversold after bottoming out. The weekly chart is what bears are using to support their narrative, however it just shows what should be expected - the back and forth between supply and demand as they even out. We can see alternating long upper and lower weekly wicks which attest to this. The weekly chart does not scream bearish drop to $8500 or lower. While possible, it isn't guaranteed in the weekly chart by any means, contrary to the bears. Price continues to close above the pitchfork's median line for now which is bullish. RSI is just below overbought at 68 and Stoch RSI is below overbought as well. Price is just a few hundred dollars below the monthly open which was $10761. This is printing a spinning top which many amateur traders will immediately start screaming reversal. Be wary of these individuals. A spinning top is a pause. Nothing more, nothing less. It tells us that neither supply nor demand ultimately had control for that period, but that they both were in control at some point during it. The candle after that spinning top lets us know which way price is headed. That being said, historically it seems that Bitcoin continues up if this spinning top is found in a bullish trend so traders should most likely be expecting only a corrective movement within the larger bullish trend at worst, which is what we are currently experiencing. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
XBTUSD 1H chart (7/19/2019)Good morning, traders. It seems that right as I got yesterday's update out Bitcoin popped for $1000+. It caught a lot of traders by surprised, but not our premium Discord members. We had already been discussing entries that morning and many of them got in right before it popped. Price topped out about $70 above my expectation and has now retraced almost perfectly to where I expected. But that doesn't mean price is done correcting yet. Currently, it is consolidating around the M15 pivot/3+ week blue TR support but it has not tested previous resistance ($10000) that it popped through yesterday as support. It does not have to test it as such, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. For those interested in Fib levels, this morning's swing low was the 38.2% retracement of what is believed to be wave 3. So, as a wave 4, the retracement is spot-on to what we should generally expect. I see a lot of folks calling for lower lows now, but I would not be so quick to jump in just yet. There is no confirmation of any kind of large continuation down. As a matter of fact, price is doing exactly what you should expect (i.e. consolidating at the resistance of the large TF TR after printing a Spring. The 1H price continues to use the bottom of the large TF TR as support and the 21 EMA as resistance. Stoch RSI remains oversold but is attempting to push out of that level. Generally, based on the first 3 waves, we would expect wave 5 to target the green box just below the red 2018 TR resistance. However, I have a feeling that if price continues higher then it will likely overextend wave 5 which should give us a target of the orange box between the R1 pivot and the top of the blue TR. Along the way, we can expect resistance at the pivot. The 4H TF shows us bearish divergence on RSI which is currently playing out. How badly will it continue to do so? Nobody can know that, but so far we see price finding support on the 21 EMA and the blue TR support. RSI broke through both resistances, so after this bear div plays out there isn't a lot to keep it in check until it becomes overbought. Stoch RSI is overbought and trending down which gives it enough room to support a wave 5 movement as outlined above. For those interested, the swing high on Bitmex yesterday was a TD 9 on the 4H. This bear div can also be found on the 6H TF. If you make this chart yours and zoom to the 6H you will see that price has really done nothing more than bounce from the bottom of the flag to the flag's EQ. We usually expect a pullback at that point before price pushes through that resistance and that is what we are currently seeing. I have also noted a possible inverted head and shoulders that may be printing. To be valid, we need to see price push through the descending black neckline with expanding volume and increasing candle spread. Based on the height of the IHS, that would provide a target of the orange box. Those traders who are more risk adverse could wait for 6H RSI to close above its resistance before entering. As always, this never guarantees price will continue higher, but it eliminates a lot of risk associated with entry. Let's not forget that price recently moved above the large descending channel resistance and providing a target of the green box. Also, daily just printed a large hidden bullish divergence as RSI closed above its resistance that has been in place since the ~$14000 swing high. As such, it amazes me that traders are so gosh darn sure that price is heading lower from here. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
XBTUSD 4H chart (7/18/2019)Good morning, traders. We saw decent movement yesterday follow by rejection at the $10000 level (supply zone as noted on this 4H chart). Price has retraced following that rejection and is potentially finding support in the larger daily grey demand block once more. The 4H RSI is resting previous resistance as support and I have added the next level of resistance that it needs to get through as well if we can see a bounce here. We can see that the previous swing low bounced off the 4H S1 pivot. Follow through to the topside would suggest bullishness with the pivot at $11180 on Bitmex being the target. A close above that pivot should have traders watching the R1 pivot at $12280, just below the TR resistance. The M15 TF printed bullish divergence as price is completing a small descending wedge. That should have price targeting the M15 pivot around $9585. A close above that pivot has a price target of the R1 pivot at $1090 which should also have price attempting to get through the descending channel resistance. As mentioned yesterday, price closing above the descending channel resistance has price targeting ~$1500 above that exit point. As always, the safest bet is to wait for price to close above the descending channel resistance before entering long. Supply volume continues to drop, especially notable on the 4H and higher TFs, suggesting that there is a lack of interest in selling at these levels -- that traders would rather hold onto their supply. Traders should remain cautious until price closes above that channel resistance. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
6
XBTUSD 1H chart (7/17/2019)Good morning, traders. So far, we are seeing price play out its part perfectly. After the triangle failed yesterday, we immediately went into flag mode which I described in yesterday's TV update and YouTube video update. As a matter of fact, price reacted exactly as I outlined it would if it took that path. I gave our premium Discord members a target of $9050-$9100 which is where price has bounced this morning. We now have multiple bullish engulfing candles possibly printing across various TFs. The 1H RSI printed bullish divergence in oversold prior to this pop up. We can see that RSI is above its resistance now, as well, while Stoch RSI is nearing a bullish cross. Price bounced off the S1 pivot and the descending broadening wedge resistance is less than a stone's throw away. A break above that should put ~$9900 in play. That will bring price back up to the 3 week TR support and descending channel resistance. A break above that resistance should put the next target at $1500 above the point of breach. If you zoom out to the 4H, you will see RSI nearing its own resistance while just now pushing above oversold. Stoch RSI on the 4H TF is attempting to push out of oversold as well. These indicators have a long way to run now, so price has a potentially clear path much higher on this TF. Price is on the path to potentially printing a bullish engulfing candle on this TF as well. Zooming out further, to the 12H TF, shows price printing a bullish engulfing candle (but there's another 11 hours left til candle close) so far. We can see two levels of RSI resistance noted with RSI recently bouncing just above oversold and currently nearing the lower resistance. Stoch RSI is oversold and attempting to curl up. You can clearly see the declining volume across the past 3 weeks on this TF which signals supply exhaustion, indicating that we should be headed up in the larger picture, not down. We have the potential to print a very bullish daily candle. I have, once again, outlined the current TR (dark blue horizontal lines) as it appears to be reaccumulation. The 1D RSI is potentially printing that hidden bullish divergence I've been talking about for a few days now. Watch for RSI to break through its resistance. Stoch RSI is bottomed out, flat, as well. Price has printed the flag support at this time. I have previously discussed targets based on the pennant or flag successfully printing, but I will mention them again as price nears the flag resistance. Failure of price to overcome the descending broadening wedge resistance, descending channel resistance, 4H pivot, or the various TF RSI resistances noted above should result in much more caution amongst traders. While I do not expect there to be any issues, and I see price having little-to-no trouble reaching the top of the TR, we have to always be prepared for things not going our expected way. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
2
XBTUSD 4H chart (7/11/2019)Good morning, traders. As mentioned yesterday, a fall below the channel support would likely indicate further downside and so it was. Again, this is why risk management is of the utmost importance. I was stopped out in profit and I hope you were too. If you follow me on Twitter, then you know I floated the idea of this correction being a triangle/pennant. Why? Because the daily seems to be printing a clear repeating ABC pattern. However, that also means that price could be printing a 3-3-5 flat, as I have mentioned as well. If the latter is true, then we should most likely be expecting price to ultimately retrace to at least $9100 as this downward movement would be the C wave of that correction. If it is a pennant, then we generally shouldn't expect price to drop any lower than the daily pivot level which is around $10700. That doesn't mean it can't wick down below it, but we should see the pivot hold as support. This is important to understand because We would expect to see continued ABC patterns printing and currently we would be just about halfway through the pattern. That puts us on the C wave of that pattern as well. So far, price has found support on the daily 21 EMA and the previous two 4H candles suggest a possible reversal, at the TR's EQ. There is also hidden bullish divergence printing at this time on the 4H TF. We need to see follow-through with a larger candle spread demand candle now to confirm this. While everyone on CryptoTwitter is freaking out about yesterday's downward price movement, the reality is that supply volume has been dropping within this correction over the past two weeks and price has been supported by the daily pivot so far. If price can close here or higher today, then the 3D Stoch RSI should print a bullish cross. The 6H Stoch RSI will print a bullish cross if price closes four hours from now at this price or higher. The 4H Stoch RSI has been bottomed out since mid-afternoon yesterday. Price is also sitting above the 4H pivot, so there's a lot of potential for a bounce up toward the top of the TR around $12000-$12400, at least, before possibly resuming movement down in one of the two scenarios mentioned above. Lower TF price action appears to be printing a large descending broadening wedge with a target of $12585 on Bitmex if price can get through the wedge's resistance. Traders should be mindful of the $12150 level as price progresses that way. Hitting the wedge target puts price above the M15 pivot and the 1H 21 EMA. The 1H Stoch RSI is pretty high, so we may see a small pullback on the smaller TFs before price pushes through the wedge's resistance. While RSI on the 1H has a lot of room to run if demand can overcome supply, it is also showing some likely hidden bearish divergence at this time. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
4
BTCUSD 1H chart (7/10/2019)Good morning, traders. I figured we could step back and look at the larger patterns and channels in play today. This 1H chart shows us that price has printed, what appears to be, a flag. If so, then the target based on the height of the flagpole is around $19150 on this Coinbase chart. That puts it just below the ATH. I've been talking a lot about different possible EW counts but, as you've seen, I have struggled with the idea that a wave 5 would target $30K+ right now (mostly due to how high it would have to go to retrace properly in terms of the ATH. Personally, I would be much more comfortable with price completing the first wave up just prior to the ATH, pulling back for wave 2, and then pushing through on wave 3. That would most likely mean that this recent pullback was wave 4 and that we are possibly on wave 5 right now. Completing the 1st wave at the ATH gives Bitcoin's price a lot of room to move up before the 5 waves are complete. At this point, it would also give alts a chance to run. Many of them appear to have been capitulating this past month and CryptoTwitter is "sure" that alts are dead and never coming back. Sounds very similar to the sentiment when Bitcoin neared $3100. So, as I have been, I will continue to play the market as it moves and entertain the various possibilities until they no longer make sense based on price action. The 1H RSI shows a recent bearish divergence that appears to have played out, as well as another potentially shorter bear div at this current juncture. We often see continual divs playing out smaller and smaller when price momentum is attempting to overcome bids or asks. In this case, it would be bullish momentum attempting to overcome the sell orders. I am watching for RSI to exit through the purple resistance to signal price is likely continuing up. We can see that price is butting up against the ascending channel's EQ. A close above this EQ would be bullish since it would put price in the upper half of the channel and should bring the channel resistance in as the next target. If you're trading pivots, then the R2 sits at $13475 and the R3 is at $14875. Price is also clearly above the blue TR and remains above the 21 EMA. Stoch RSI has room to fall further, but as long as the 21 EMA/descending channel resistance holds as support price should push ultimately push higher. The red ascending triangle has a target of $14410 and, of course, the flag/descending channel has a target of the R4 pivot at $16330 based on the height of that channel. A close above the June 26th swing high at $13868 should have everyone flipping long which makes these larger pattern targets likely. The 4H RSI is nearing a break into overbought and daily RSI is printing a rather large bearish divergence if price moves above that June 26th swing high. However, price action above the swing high will dictate how/when that div will play out. Daily Stoch RSI has a lot of room to the upside and RSI is below overbought at this time. As I was just about to publish this, I noticed that price bounced off the descending channel resistance and the candle spread is currently sitting back above the 21 EMA. We still have another 40 minutes left in this candle, but I'd like to see it close like this or better. We need to see price push through the grey supply zone. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2