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XBTUSD H1 chart (7/29/2019)Good morning, traders. Things got interesting near yesterday's close with price dropping and then rocketing back up. This was a very strong reaction out of demand at $9100 following a low volume sell off. As a matter of fact, that pop up had the largest M30 volume that we have seen since July 18th and the swing low nearly found the July 17th swing low. This led to a large, $650 spread long-legged doji printing on the H4 and a slightly larger-bodied doji on the D1. Normally, in such a case, we would expect price to ultimately continue higher. With price finding support at the M15 pivot this morning, this is what we are going to watch for now but we have to keep in mind that we are still seeing decreasing daily volume. Until we see expanding daily volume coupled with expanding candle spread, there is no guarantee of either direction. In printing this swing low yesterday, price has potentially set up an Adam and Eve double bottom. A close above the swing high of $11132 would confirm this and set up a target of $13180 based on the height of the double bottom. The W1 printed tweezer bottoms which generally leads to a reversal to the upside, however H4 and H6 RSI haven't yet closed above their descending resistances yet. As I have been mentioning since last week, these are the main indicators I am watching for confirmation of a possible reversal to the upside. The D3 is still printing that hidden bullish divergence that we've been watching for a while now, so it has not been confirmed yet. But we also have the W1 printing hidden bullish divergence as well, and if this week closes higher, then we could see the confirmation on both TFs. Why might this week close higher in spite of all the bearishness running rampant on CT, TV, and YT? The FOMC is expected to lower interest rates this week. That will weaken the dollar and, as a result, anything valued against the dollar (all things held equal) should see a rise in that value. But first things first, price needs to close above the H1/H4 pivot at $9775, and in order to do that it needs to close above the H1 21 EMA which it is currently banging against. This will pull the H1 and H4 RSI's above their resistance which should indicate continued demand pressure. I have noted a few diagonal support and resistance levels to watch. If price makes it through the grey demand zone then I will first be looking for it to bounce off the S1 pivot just below $8860. Beyond that, I will watch for a bounce off the descending red support line. So nothing has really changed from last week. All this short term movement between $9100 and $10300 remains noise. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD H4 chart (7/26/2019)Good morning, traders. Price didn't close out the daily as strong as it started it, yesterday, but before you get too bearish let's take a look at the H4 picture. Stripping out most of the noise, this is what we get -- price nearing daily descending resistance while printing a possible descending wedge. We can see supply volume contracting significantly as this TR has developed (other than the one outlier volume bar ten days ago which was needed to push price below that local swing low) while demand volume has continued to expand. The lows are printing a much less steep decline than the highs which tells us that demand is showing up and increasing, which is what the demand volume expansion tells us as well. RSI is nearing its resistance and Stoch RSI is targeting a bullish cross if we can see price move to the upside in the next two hours. I would expect to see a strong demand candle print on price's break through that daily descending resistance. I have noted a possible double bottom printing, but this won't be confirmed until price closes above the swing high between the lows. This would have price targeting the $10840 level in the short-term, taking price above the H4 pivot, with a possible larger target of the $13800+ swing high that was set a month ago. Further downside movement would have me watching the S1 pivot followed by the descending support line for the bounce. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
3
XBTUSD M15 chart (7/25/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday's YouTube video updated was titled "Are you ready for the bounce?" and we did get the bounce. In Discord, I made sure our members were aware of the bullish divergence on the H1 (which also showed up on the H4) following the TD 9 on the H6 which warned us that this move was likely incoming. The RSI resistances on the various TFs that I mentioned yesterday were broken as well which should've signaled for traders to go long. Price is now above channel resistance, as well as the H1 and H4 21 EMAs, and has an immediate target of $10360-$10415. Reaching this price level will pull price above the H4 pivot and back above the TR support. My green and orange box targets still remain valid at this time. I have noted the next level of H4 resistance for RSI to get through and that appears to coincide with the descending dashed resistance above price. The daily is printing a large bullish engulfing candle after a short downtrend. Stoch RSI is targeting a bullish cross if price closes here or higher at the end of the day. The daily pivot stands at ~$10700 and a close above it will have price above the 21 EMA as well which would be bullish for the pair. There is a daily supply block at $11336-$11804. Zooming out to the daily chart, you will see it highlighted in blue and can note that it sits just at/below the 2018 TR resistance (red horizontal line). You can also note that my green target box is at the upper half of that block. I outlined the very local TR and price movement on the M15. The recent price drop this morning appears to be nothing more than a retest of previous swing high resistance as support at the EQ of the blue zone which printed hidden bullish divergence on the M15. It may have printed it on the M30 as well, but we need to see price heading up from here to confirm it. I have also included the current possible ascending channel that I am watching at this time. Right now, we want to see the M15 R1 pivot continue to hold as support and price to rise from here. I will be live streaming about this and more in about 50 minutes at 10 a.m. CST/3 p.m. UTC on the YouTube link below. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
1
XBTUSD 1H chart (7/24/2019)Good morning, traders. We saw an initial bounce out of the demand zone only to gain some momentum to push back deeper into it. In doing so, what was originally viewed as a poorly-printed descending broadening wedge has become a much more well-formed descending channel and price is currently knocking at that channel's EQ after bouncing off the bottom of the blue demand zone. Nothing has changed in my outlook at this time as price has done nothing uprising. So far, it continues to move as I suggested traders should watch for it to do. With the printing of the descending channel traders should look for price to close above channel resistance before entering to limit risk associated with a long entry. This will get price above the H1 21 EMA and set up an initial $535 target above the point of breakout based on the height of the channel (i.e. if price breaks through the descending channel's resistance at $9600 then the initial target would be $10135). If price continues lower first, then the orange and blue demand zones should be watched carefully for a bounce if price falls below the 78.6% retracement at $9519. The S1 pivot sits at the top of the orange zone around $9405. The larger grey demand zone that encompasses them is the daily demand block, which is why we've seen such good reactions out of it. The H4 RSI has not broken its overhead resistance yet suggesting that if it does it will likely indicate upward progression of price and it remains just a bit above oversold at this time. The H1 RSI has recently bounced out of oversold and is targeting its own overhead resistance. While Stoch RSI remains oversold on the H4, it is bullish on the H1 and targeting overbought. As far as my targets go, the green box should be the generally expected wave B target with the orange box being the occasional wave B extension or possible wave 3. What I mean by that is if price only manages to reach the green box before reversing, then it increases chances significantly that this bounce upward is likely just the X wave of a WXY combo correction. If so, then that would ultimately lead price lower, toward the CME gap fill that traders are obsessing over. Traders continue to concentrate on the CME gap fill and lower TFs rather than paying attention to the larger TFs. As I have reminded traders, the 3D RSI printed a large hidden bullish divergence between June 3rd and July 21st. It also just pushed through its descending resistance while price continues to find support on the 21 EMA. Stoch RSI remains oversold with RSI still bullish at 52.57. Supply volume has continued dropping significantly throughout this month-long correction which is what we expect to see as the correction plays out. While the last three days has seen slightly increasing volume and slightly increasing candle spread, it has not yet been convincing in terms of continued supply dominance as it remains much lower than the previous price drops around the TR support level. If supply volume becomes noticeably larger with corresponding growth in candle spread, then it becomes of interest re: signalling much lower prices. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
4
XBTUSD 4H chart (7/23/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday I warned about initiating a position at the EQ of the local TR as it was unclear whether price was headed up or down. Price ended up heading down as we can see. I mentioned that, if price dropped, I would be looking for it to bounce out of the blue demand zone or, if strong volume came in with the supply, then I would be watching for a bounce at the S1 pivot. So far, price is in the blue demand zone, so we should be watching to see if it bounces from this area since volume, so far, hasn't been significant at all. The previous 4H candle again shows you why dojis are merely pauses and not necessarily reversals. Dojis during a trend require the next candle to confirm continuation or reversal. Traders should be watching this candle for a large lower wick which would be bullish and would also print tweezer bottoms suggesting a reversal incoming. Currently, price has almost touched the 61.8% retracement of the most recent bounce. A touch of the S1 pivot would have price just beyond the 78.6% retracement. I have outlined a possible descending red wedge, however until price actually bounces off the wedge support and targets wedge resistance, it could still fall below it. RSI has almost reached oversold again but Stoch RSI is oversold and nearing bottoming out. The 4H volume has not been significant though it did rise through yesterday morning. Today we see the volume spikes near that same level but the candle spreads are much smaller which tells us demand is showing up at these lower levels. The question is, will there be enough to reverse price direction from this point? The 1H RSI is printing bullish divergence at this time but we need to see price continuing higher to confirm it. The RSI resistance has been noted on the different TFs and should be watched. 1H volume has increased noticeably over the previous period but the candle spread remains small, again telling us that demand is attempting to overcome supply. Stoch RSI is nearing a possible bearish cross. The M30 RSI is printed bullish divergence and is currently attempting to confirm it as it nears a break of its resistance. While Stoch RSI is much higher on this shorter TF, it is curling up for a possible bullish cross. My targets remain the green and orange boxes for now. With a clear ABC completion on the daily, we must now follow price action to see if that is the end of the correction or if we have a combo which will ultimately see price heading toward the mid-$8000s. However, we should generally expect price to target that ~$12000 level before doing so. The 3D chart shows multiple hidden bullish divergence following each other and RSI is retesting resistance as support. Stoch RSI on this large TF bounced in overbought and recently crossed bullishly. Price remains supported by the pivot. I will be streaming on YouTube and Twitch at 10 a.m. CST/3 p.m. UTC and would love for you to join me if you have the chance. You can search TexasWestCapital on both platforms. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
1
XBTUSD 4H chart (7/22/2019)Good morning, traders. After making a high of $11132 this weekend, Bitcoin's price has seen some pullback. It appears that price may be printing a triangle as it completes the local TR. Currently, price is sitting just above the TR's EQ. It's never a smart idea to initiate a position when price is in this area. Traders will save themselves much stress and capital by patiently waiting at this point. If price continues below the TR support, then I would be looking for price to bounce out of the blue demand depending on how strong the supply volume is as price heads toward that level. Strong supply incoming would have me watching for the bounce off the S1 pivot at $9405 instead. If price continues up from here, then there are two possibilities: 1) likely consolidation around the top of the local TR before pushing higher toward my green or orange boxes, or 2) that move to the top of the TR would complete the D leg of the triangle with the E leg then following, no lower than the ascending dotted support line, before price pushes toward those green and orange boxes. The 1H RSI is currently testing its resistance and Stoch RSI crossed bullishly earlier this morning. Both indicators have a lot of room to run to the upside. Price currently sits above the pivot. The 4H RSI recently printed hidden bullish divergence while Stoch RSI is potentially crossing bearishly. However, there is still 2 hours left in this candle, so it's too early to tell how it will close. Price is finding support on the 21 EMA at this time, above the larger blue TR's support, and resistance at the descending channel EQ. The daily chart shows the hidden bullish divergence that printed just under a week ago, as well as RSI having broken through its resistance. Stoch RSI is threatening to cross bearishly, but with another 9 hours left til close it's too early to know what will happen. We see price consolidating around the dailiy pivot and descending channel EQ, which often signals continuation upward, but until price closes above the 21 EMA traders should continue to be cautious. Important to note is that supply volume has continued to drop off which is most often indicative of supply exhaustion. The 3D chart looks strong. Price printed a large bullish engulfing candle while bouncing off the 21 EMA and finding resistance at the pivot and descending channel EQ. This came on the heels of RSI printing hidden bullish divergence. As such, the idea that price will print lower lows without at least first heading higher for another week or so seems far-fetched. The hidden bullish divergence needs time to play out and this is a rather large TF. Stoch RSI is currently crossing bullishly in oversold after bottoming out. The weekly chart is what bears are using to support their narrative, however it just shows what should be expected - the back and forth between supply and demand as they even out. We can see alternating long upper and lower weekly wicks which attest to this. The weekly chart does not scream bearish drop to $8500 or lower. While possible, it isn't guaranteed in the weekly chart by any means, contrary to the bears. Price continues to close above the pitchfork's median line for now which is bullish. RSI is just below overbought at 68 and Stoch RSI is below overbought as well. Price is just a few hundred dollars below the monthly open which was $10761. This is printing a spinning top which many amateur traders will immediately start screaming reversal. Be wary of these individuals. A spinning top is a pause. Nothing more, nothing less. It tells us that neither supply nor demand ultimately had control for that period, but that they both were in control at some point during it. The candle after that spinning top lets us know which way price is headed. That being said, historically it seems that Bitcoin continues up if this spinning top is found in a bullish trend so traders should most likely be expecting only a corrective movement within the larger bullish trend at worst, which is what we are currently experiencing. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
XBTUSD 1H chart (7/19/2019)Good morning, traders. It seems that right as I got yesterday's update out Bitcoin popped for $1000+. It caught a lot of traders by surprised, but not our premium Discord members. We had already been discussing entries that morning and many of them got in right before it popped. Price topped out about $70 above my expectation and has now retraced almost perfectly to where I expected. But that doesn't mean price is done correcting yet. Currently, it is consolidating around the M15 pivot/3+ week blue TR support but it has not tested previous resistance ($10000) that it popped through yesterday as support. It does not have to test it as such, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. For those interested in Fib levels, this morning's swing low was the 38.2% retracement of what is believed to be wave 3. So, as a wave 4, the retracement is spot-on to what we should generally expect. I see a lot of folks calling for lower lows now, but I would not be so quick to jump in just yet. There is no confirmation of any kind of large continuation down. As a matter of fact, price is doing exactly what you should expect (i.e. consolidating at the resistance of the large TF TR after printing a Spring. The 1H price continues to use the bottom of the large TF TR as support and the 21 EMA as resistance. Stoch RSI remains oversold but is attempting to push out of that level. Generally, based on the first 3 waves, we would expect wave 5 to target the green box just below the red 2018 TR resistance. However, I have a feeling that if price continues higher then it will likely overextend wave 5 which should give us a target of the orange box between the R1 pivot and the top of the blue TR. Along the way, we can expect resistance at the pivot. The 4H TF shows us bearish divergence on RSI which is currently playing out. How badly will it continue to do so? Nobody can know that, but so far we see price finding support on the 21 EMA and the blue TR support. RSI broke through both resistances, so after this bear div plays out there isn't a lot to keep it in check until it becomes overbought. Stoch RSI is overbought and trending down which gives it enough room to support a wave 5 movement as outlined above. For those interested, the swing high on Bitmex yesterday was a TD 9 on the 4H. This bear div can also be found on the 6H TF. If you make this chart yours and zoom to the 6H you will see that price has really done nothing more than bounce from the bottom of the flag to the flag's EQ. We usually expect a pullback at that point before price pushes through that resistance and that is what we are currently seeing. I have also noted a possible inverted head and shoulders that may be printing. To be valid, we need to see price push through the descending black neckline with expanding volume and increasing candle spread. Based on the height of the IHS, that would provide a target of the orange box. Those traders who are more risk adverse could wait for 6H RSI to close above its resistance before entering. As always, this never guarantees price will continue higher, but it eliminates a lot of risk associated with entry. Let's not forget that price recently moved above the large descending channel resistance and providing a target of the green box. Also, daily just printed a large hidden bullish divergence as RSI closed above its resistance that has been in place since the ~$14000 swing high. As such, it amazes me that traders are so gosh darn sure that price is heading lower from here. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
XBTUSD 4H chart (7/18/2019)Good morning, traders. We saw decent movement yesterday follow by rejection at the $10000 level (supply zone as noted on this 4H chart). Price has retraced following that rejection and is potentially finding support in the larger daily grey demand block once more. The 4H RSI is resting previous resistance as support and I have added the next level of resistance that it needs to get through as well if we can see a bounce here. We can see that the previous swing low bounced off the 4H S1 pivot. Follow through to the topside would suggest bullishness with the pivot at $11180 on Bitmex being the target. A close above that pivot should have traders watching the R1 pivot at $12280, just below the TR resistance. The M15 TF printed bullish divergence as price is completing a small descending wedge. That should have price targeting the M15 pivot around $9585. A close above that pivot has a price target of the R1 pivot at $1090 which should also have price attempting to get through the descending channel resistance. As mentioned yesterday, price closing above the descending channel resistance has price targeting ~$1500 above that exit point. As always, the safest bet is to wait for price to close above the descending channel resistance before entering long. Supply volume continues to drop, especially notable on the 4H and higher TFs, suggesting that there is a lack of interest in selling at these levels -- that traders would rather hold onto their supply. Traders should remain cautious until price closes above that channel resistance. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
6
XBTUSD 1H chart (7/17/2019)Good morning, traders. So far, we are seeing price play out its part perfectly. After the triangle failed yesterday, we immediately went into flag mode which I described in yesterday's TV update and YouTube video update. As a matter of fact, price reacted exactly as I outlined it would if it took that path. I gave our premium Discord members a target of $9050-$9100 which is where price has bounced this morning. We now have multiple bullish engulfing candles possibly printing across various TFs. The 1H RSI printed bullish divergence in oversold prior to this pop up. We can see that RSI is above its resistance now, as well, while Stoch RSI is nearing a bullish cross. Price bounced off the S1 pivot and the descending broadening wedge resistance is less than a stone's throw away. A break above that should put ~$9900 in play. That will bring price back up to the 3 week TR support and descending channel resistance. A break above that resistance should put the next target at $1500 above the point of breach. If you zoom out to the 4H, you will see RSI nearing its own resistance while just now pushing above oversold. Stoch RSI on the 4H TF is attempting to push out of oversold as well. These indicators have a long way to run now, so price has a potentially clear path much higher on this TF. Price is on the path to potentially printing a bullish engulfing candle on this TF as well. Zooming out further, to the 12H TF, shows price printing a bullish engulfing candle (but there's another 11 hours left til candle close) so far. We can see two levels of RSI resistance noted with RSI recently bouncing just above oversold and currently nearing the lower resistance. Stoch RSI is oversold and attempting to curl up. You can clearly see the declining volume across the past 3 weeks on this TF which signals supply exhaustion, indicating that we should be headed up in the larger picture, not down. We have the potential to print a very bullish daily candle. I have, once again, outlined the current TR (dark blue horizontal lines) as it appears to be reaccumulation. The 1D RSI is potentially printing that hidden bullish divergence I've been talking about for a few days now. Watch for RSI to break through its resistance. Stoch RSI is bottomed out, flat, as well. Price has printed the flag support at this time. I have previously discussed targets based on the pennant or flag successfully printing, but I will mention them again as price nears the flag resistance. Failure of price to overcome the descending broadening wedge resistance, descending channel resistance, 4H pivot, or the various TF RSI resistances noted above should result in much more caution amongst traders. While I do not expect there to be any issues, and I see price having little-to-no trouble reaching the top of the TR, we have to always be prepared for things not going our expected way. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
2
XBTUSD 4H chart (7/11/2019)Good morning, traders. As mentioned yesterday, a fall below the channel support would likely indicate further downside and so it was. Again, this is why risk management is of the utmost importance. I was stopped out in profit and I hope you were too. If you follow me on Twitter, then you know I floated the idea of this correction being a triangle/pennant. Why? Because the daily seems to be printing a clear repeating ABC pattern. However, that also means that price could be printing a 3-3-5 flat, as I have mentioned as well. If the latter is true, then we should most likely be expecting price to ultimately retrace to at least $9100 as this downward movement would be the C wave of that correction. If it is a pennant, then we generally shouldn't expect price to drop any lower than the daily pivot level which is around $10700. That doesn't mean it can't wick down below it, but we should see the pivot hold as support. This is important to understand because We would expect to see continued ABC patterns printing and currently we would be just about halfway through the pattern. That puts us on the C wave of that pattern as well. So far, price has found support on the daily 21 EMA and the previous two 4H candles suggest a possible reversal, at the TR's EQ. There is also hidden bullish divergence printing at this time on the 4H TF. We need to see follow-through with a larger candle spread demand candle now to confirm this. While everyone on CryptoTwitter is freaking out about yesterday's downward price movement, the reality is that supply volume has been dropping within this correction over the past two weeks and price has been supported by the daily pivot so far. If price can close here or higher today, then the 3D Stoch RSI should print a bullish cross. The 6H Stoch RSI will print a bullish cross if price closes four hours from now at this price or higher. The 4H Stoch RSI has been bottomed out since mid-afternoon yesterday. Price is also sitting above the 4H pivot, so there's a lot of potential for a bounce up toward the top of the TR around $12000-$12400, at least, before possibly resuming movement down in one of the two scenarios mentioned above. Lower TF price action appears to be printing a large descending broadening wedge with a target of $12585 on Bitmex if price can get through the wedge's resistance. Traders should be mindful of the $12150 level as price progresses that way. Hitting the wedge target puts price above the M15 pivot and the 1H 21 EMA. The 1H Stoch RSI is pretty high, so we may see a small pullback on the smaller TFs before price pushes through the wedge's resistance. While RSI on the 1H has a lot of room to run if demand can overcome supply, it is also showing some likely hidden bearish divergence at this time. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
4
BTCUSD 1H chart (7/10/2019)Good morning, traders. I figured we could step back and look at the larger patterns and channels in play today. This 1H chart shows us that price has printed, what appears to be, a flag. If so, then the target based on the height of the flagpole is around $19150 on this Coinbase chart. That puts it just below the ATH. I've been talking a lot about different possible EW counts but, as you've seen, I have struggled with the idea that a wave 5 would target $30K+ right now (mostly due to how high it would have to go to retrace properly in terms of the ATH. Personally, I would be much more comfortable with price completing the first wave up just prior to the ATH, pulling back for wave 2, and then pushing through on wave 3. That would most likely mean that this recent pullback was wave 4 and that we are possibly on wave 5 right now. Completing the 1st wave at the ATH gives Bitcoin's price a lot of room to move up before the 5 waves are complete. At this point, it would also give alts a chance to run. Many of them appear to have been capitulating this past month and CryptoTwitter is "sure" that alts are dead and never coming back. Sounds very similar to the sentiment when Bitcoin neared $3100. So, as I have been, I will continue to play the market as it moves and entertain the various possibilities until they no longer make sense based on price action. The 1H RSI shows a recent bearish divergence that appears to have played out, as well as another potentially shorter bear div at this current juncture. We often see continual divs playing out smaller and smaller when price momentum is attempting to overcome bids or asks. In this case, it would be bullish momentum attempting to overcome the sell orders. I am watching for RSI to exit through the purple resistance to signal price is likely continuing up. We can see that price is butting up against the ascending channel's EQ. A close above this EQ would be bullish since it would put price in the upper half of the channel and should bring the channel resistance in as the next target. If you're trading pivots, then the R2 sits at $13475 and the R3 is at $14875. Price is also clearly above the blue TR and remains above the 21 EMA. Stoch RSI has room to fall further, but as long as the 21 EMA/descending channel resistance holds as support price should push ultimately push higher. The red ascending triangle has a target of $14410 and, of course, the flag/descending channel has a target of the R4 pivot at $16330 based on the height of that channel. A close above the June 26th swing high at $13868 should have everyone flipping long which makes these larger pattern targets likely. The 4H RSI is nearing a break into overbought and daily RSI is printing a rather large bearish divergence if price moves above that June 26th swing high. However, price action above the swing high will dictate how/when that div will play out. Daily Stoch RSI has a lot of room to the upside and RSI is below overbought at this time. As I was just about to publish this, I noticed that price bounced off the descending channel resistance and the candle spread is currently sitting back above the 21 EMA. We still have another 40 minutes left in this candle, but I'd like to see it close like this or better. We need to see price push through the grey supply zone. _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 1H chart (7/8/2019)Good morning, traders. My larger TF EW and Wyckoff labeling are still valid and doing quite well. That doesn't guarantee that they will continue to do so, however, as EW is notoriously tricky during corrective moves, but for now I don't see any reason to change them. It appears that Bitcoin's price recently completed a symmetrical triangle which it broke out of this morning. As always, we have two targets based on that pattern: 1) $12800 based on the height of the triangle and 2) $13900 based on the height of the flagpole leading up to that triangle/pennant. I do believe that price will reach the upper target as it aligns perfectly with the daily R1 pivot and, of course, it is the general target level of the large descending wedge that begins at ~$14000. Demand volume on the 1H and 4H TFs looks really good with the recent move up which gives more support to the idea that price will be headed higher. Currently, we can expect a small retracement (as we are seeing) as price cools off from that pop before heading higher. Additionally, in terms of VPVR at the 4H TF and higher, the LVN is located between $12225 and $13000 which means price shouldn't have a difficult time making its way to the lower target at least. Don't forget, price has not spent a lot of time above $13000, so there's little in the way of resistance in the grand scheme of things. The 4H Stoch RSI is just now breaching overbought, so it still has a lot of room to move up, while the 4H RSI is bullish at 60 (it, too, having a lot of room to run). The 1H Stoch RSI and RSI are cooling off as price retraces a bit, readying for the next push up. Weekly R1 pivot is at $12975 _____________________________________________________________ Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
6
XBTUSD 4H chart (7/3/2019)Good morning, traders. Other than my apparent slight miscount on the subwaves yesterday, things are looking good for us and Bitcoin. There is the possibility that we may have completed the first small set of subwaves up and are now correcting a bit before heading higher. I would like to see price target the ~$10550/$10600 area for this correction. That would bring it down between 50% and 61.8% as well as have it bouncing off the pitchfork's median line. However, we may not see it head any lower than the ~$10750/$10800 level. This would happen if demand outweighs supply to a much greater extent than normal so it doesn't allow price to retrace as far as is usually expected, but it would still get price to the 12.5% pitchfork level. On the small TFs, we can already see good demand showing up at this morning's swing low of $10947, which is at the very top of that $10800 cluster. However, the wave count is not clear, but the bounce just above the previous demand is, so there is the possibility that this current pullback toward that cluster is subwave 4 of wave 3 and we are headed to $11900 to complete wave 3 (which would also be the target based on the height of the descending channel that price is printing) with a wave 5 target of the 15 minute R4 pivot at ~$13400 as well as the outer tine of the pitchfork as seen on this 4H TF. That would throw off the confluence of larger TF fibs mentioned further below, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to it. So I would be looking for a break above the recent swing high at $11576.20 to go long with a $13400 target if we are still completing the first set of subwaves, or a break below the recent swing low at $10947 if we have completed that first set. We can see that price exited the descending wedge that we were watching. Per yesterday's mention, that now gives us a target of ~$13850 based off the height of the descending wedge and ~$17355 based on the height of the flagpole leading up to that flag/wedge. The latter target would put this next wave up between the 1.414 and 1.618 extension of waves 1-3 which is what I would expect to at least hit since wave 3 extended just over 2.618. So, this latter target is likely, potentially even higher toward the R4 pivot at ~$18000, if my larger count is correct. It also aligns with yesterday's swing high being the top of the first subwave on this move up. Additionally, it sets up the wave 4 pullback before pushing through the ATH for wave 5, again if my larger TF count is correct. However, traders should remain cautious until price moves above the shorter target mentioned above. There's lots of profit to be made for traders that are patient and discerning about their entries. The 4H Stoch RSI is well oversold, as we can see, and RSI is bullish at 54. A pullback here would give this TF the strength to push through the $11800/$12200 area. But if wave 3 ends around $11900, then that allows the same pullback. We can also see the 4H pivot sitting just above price at $11665. We could see price hovering around the pivot and consolidating for the push above it. I have seen off-the-wall charts pulling weird "resistance levels" off odd TFs. If you think that using the 3H TF, for instance, is going to give you some kind of edge, you are mistaken. Worse yet is pulling those odd lines off that odd TF. That all being as it is, that weekly candle is still something to keep in mind per a possible reversal, but unless we get a weekly large candle spread supply candlestick following it, then that weekly candle is just a pause before a possible further move up. Again, we have seen similar candlestick patterns (there was one earlier this year) where there have been large upper wicks only to see price continue up afterward. Be sure to make this chart your own via the instructions below and then zoom in to the 15 minute TF to see the alternate wave counts I have 1) blue and 2) red to distinguish the two possibilities I discussed at the beginning of this analysis. Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H chart (7/2/2019)Good morning, traders. My chart is a bit full today, but I wanted to make sure you see the confluence that I will be speaking about below. With the continued pressure on $10K last night, I was stopped out of my long in slight profit and am short to $9500. I am expecting price to bounce at the $9300-$9500 level. We can see that price is printing an almost perfect ABC correction and we appear to be in the 5th wave (ending diagonal) of Wave C. As I have been mentioning, the 4H S1 pivot sits at $9400 (yes, I am exiting a bit earlier than the expected completion of the move. Liquidity is everything when entering/exiting) and finds confluence with the daily pitchfork support, ascending dotted line support, 1.272 extension of Wave A, and the top of the demand zone. The only thing that hasn't happened is the 4H RSI hitting oversold. At this point, we may not even get it with this expected move down, however we will have a flat RSI (just above oversold) if we don't and that is usually indicative of an impending reversal. We can see that demand is growing down here while supply, overall, is decreasing. The flag (descending wedge) printing has a potential target of ~$17000, based on the height of the flagpole, depending on when price moves above wedge resistance. We can also derive a target of ~$13540 based on the height of the descending wedge. If we get a bounce from the mid-$9Ks as expected and price prints an ABC rather than 1-5, then that lower target should be the expected cap on upward movement. In that case, we would expect to see price print a double combo (WXY) or triple combo (WXYXZ) correction. If that happens, then we would likely see the CME gap in the $8000s filled. However, remember, it does not have to fill right now even if it's going to fill eventually. Previously, it's taken up to more than a month for a gap to fill on a few separate occasions, so it's not unheard of that it doesn't fill before heading up higher. My expectation at this time, based on the appearance of clean ABC movement, is that we are completing reaccumulation after decline with a spring (once you make this chart yours via the directions below, zoom into the 1H to see the labeling of the TR). This means that I am expecting price to reach toward $17000 rather than stopping at $13540. But understand, that does not mean that I am long without thought now. This is nothing more than my current view of what's going on. As price moves, new information may come in that makes me lean the other way, in which case I would close out my long and go short. But that is unknown at this time. In either case, the move should be up toward that ~$13500 level at the least. Never forget, a good trader is fluid, not rigid, and able to trade with new information. Be sure to join me every week day morning at the YouTube address below for a video look at the market where I go more in-depth and often look at other cryptos and/or markets as well. Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
12
XBTUSD 1H chart (7/1/2019)Good morning, traders. I mentioned some things to watch for on Friday and stated that I would be wary around $12500 if we didn't see strong demand following through on a move up. Sure enough, price was rejected at around $12450 and has been moving steadily downward since. Ultimately, it seems like price is just building a base before moving up higher, similar to what it did at $5000 and $8000, but this is very preliminary assumption. Novice traders often want answers immediately, but the market takes time to develop. They also tend to relish in conspiracy theories about huge market manipulations. Don't be that person. Just pay attention to what's going on rather than concoct some story. Sideways movement gives us some time to step back and observe. In other words, patience is the name of the game at the moment. Luckily for us, alts have been popping, so there is some trading to be done while waiting for Bitcoin to let us know what it is going to do. The daily TF shows possible hidden bullish divergence in RSI over the past 4 days. However, we would need to see price move up by the close of today's candle, the higher the better, to likely confirm it. We can also see that new pivots have printed and price is sitting on the daily pivot. Of course bouncing off the pivot would be bullish and we would look for price to target the R1 pivot/swing high. When looking at the current price level and the possible hidden bullish divergence (which, if it plays out, means continuation upward) we could be seeing a double bottom forming. This is after the double top that printed and has a target of ~$10200. As with all pattern targets, this target is general rather than specific. In other words, price many times does not completely reach the pattern target, and sometimes it surpasses it, but the target gives us an idea of where to look. If the double bottom does print, then a close above the swing high of $12465 between the two possible bottoms would confirm it. At that point, the target would be ~$16345. The weekly candle looks ugly though, and that's the biggest signal that gives me pause at this time. It is best described as a gravestone doji which indicates a possible reversal on this large TF. However, without confirmation that price is headed down (large body bearish candlestick this week) it remains just a possibility and, thus, is a pause in the upward trend for now. While it does not necessarily mean that price will continue a larger correction toward $8000/$8500, it is definitely worth paying attention to. As a matter of fact, we could see the move up to $16345, for instance, before the end of the week and end up printing another large upper wick on a weekly candle as price drops once more. This could, theoretically, give us tweezer tops on the weekly which would be a strong signal that the sideways movement may be extended for a while and we could see $9500 or, if that doesn't hold, $8500. In that case, I would expect a full-on alt season to be in swing. All that being said, we can see that price is at the EQ of the weekly demand zone which explains the order book that I discuss below. The order books are currently showing exceptional bidding around $10K as expected and, again, at $9500-$9600. However, overall, it is strong from this point downward. To put it into perspective, Kraken order books are showing 1100 BTC bids down through $10K or 2100 through $9500. Asks, on the other hand, are showing only 1275 BTC through $14250. What this means is there is significantly more interest in buying within $1000 below the current level than there is in selling $3500 above the current level. As a matter of fact, we can see that it costs almost the same amount of BTC for price to drop $650 as it does for price to rise $3600. While these orders can be pulled if price drops, and moving up would see some added to the ask side, it does give us an idea of the current market interest levels. If real demand shows up, price would have a relatively easy move upward, and this is why traders should be patient and allow price action to play out at the moment. The 3D TF is currently playing out the bearish divergence it printed. The 12H TF still has a possibility of hidden bullish divergence, similar to the daily, playing out. However, on the 12H TF, price is under the newly-formed pivot which means we could see it bounce off the S1 pivot at $9400. The 1H TF is showing multiple bullish divergences playing out consecutively. This often happens as demand begins to overcome supply. We can see supply volume dropping, overall, as price as reached toward the mid-$10Ks while demand volume appears to potentially be picking up slowly. Specifically, the daily candle, which still has about 1/3 of the day to go before it closes, is currently showing a large supply bar but very small candle spread. If the day closes similar or better, then that would be bullish. Finally, the CME has daily gaps down into the $8Ks, however there have been times in the past where it has taken a month to fill similar gaps. So, what I am saying is what I have continued to say -- patience is key. Let the market show you what it's going to do and THEN enter. Don't try to guess what it's going to do and enter before confirmation because that will most likely find you at the losing end of a trade. We will be talking about all of this and more in this morning's video update at the YouTube link below. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/28/2019)Good morning, traders. The update I posted yesterday to my TV chart was spot on and price bounced out of the red box. I first went long around $10776. On our paid Discord side, traders were able to trade along with me and get an explanation of what I was seeing and what it meant as I bought and sold this move up. Unlike other Discord servers out there, ours is an immersion experience for new and seasoned traders. This allowed many of them to enter much closer to the reversal as we noted a possible double bottom forming around $10300 on the very short TF chart which also tested the 1H pivot as support. Ultimately, we have seen an almost $2000 price increase in less than 24 hours. Now I know that most traders out there are swearing this is the larger correction and that price will head further down. However, I am not of that mind just yet. I warned that we would see strong moves like this while price is parabolic. It doesn't matter whether it's some "whale" selling $100M of Bitcoin on Coinbase or something else, the underlying cause for the strong movement is psychological. With price pushing hard and fast upward, traders of all wallet sizes tend to get scared and pick opportunities to lock in profits along the way. When the initial sell is large enough, it causes retail traders to sell out of fear and this cascades, especially when the order books are thinly bid due to the large, strong upward movement of price. Simply put, there just isn't enough of a base right under price when the selling starts to support it. While that doesn't mean that I am ignoring the possibility of a larger movement down, it does mean that I am looking at more bullish price structures and targets until they no longer play out. This means that I am buying the dips rather than shorting the rallies at this time. If it does head further down then the mid-$9000s, as I have been mentioning, would be the likely bounce zone. The ~$2000 increase over yesterday's low, coupled with 5x leverage on Kraken and making a total of 4 trades in that time, has resulted in a 100% increase in that trading account. This is without shorting, only longing, the dips. I am known to constantly explain to novice traders that they do not have to utilize 50X or 100X leverage to make money. They just have to trade intelligently. And I continue to prove that to our Discord members in real time thereby giving them the confidence to let go of their preconceived notions about trading so that they can create real, lasting wealth for themselves. So where are we at now? In terms of the larger picture, price is currently attempting to push, and remain, above the 1H R1 pivot/2018 TR resistance around $11,800 (the purple horizontal line). The long red horizontal lines are the weekly pivots with the one below price being the pivot and the one above it being the R1 pivot. A daily close back above this ~$11800 level would be bullish. While the weekly candle doesn't look too hot at the moment, with 3 days left until the candle closes there's more than enough time to change it. We can see that price exited the large descending wedge and is currently back above the 1H 21 EMA. Notice that the target of the wedge is just above that weekly R1 pivot. Additionally, we can see a possible double bottom on this 1H chart as well. While price has closed above the swing high between the bottoms, I want to see price bounce off that swing high resistance and use it as support, which is what it appears price is attempting to do at this time. If it does, then the target of the double bottom is also near the weekly R1 pivot as shown. This could also be seen as an ascending triangle, however the target remains the same so feel free to use whichever pattern you are more comfortable with. Both of these targets are above the 1H R2 pivot as seen as well. That kind of movement would be considered bullish. Although demand volume is growing, without a strong show of demand just yet, I am going to be wary around ~$12500 for now. Finally, I wouldn't be surprised to see price build a base in this area, similar to what was done at the $8000 level. So far we have had the large initial drop that creates the TR. As such, if price doesn't immediately take out the daily swing high from a couple of days ago, just under $14000, I would pay attention to price within the larger TF TR. Does it find support at the TR's EQ after testing that swing high? As we can see, that is currently level that price is consolidating just below. If so, then I would be extremely careful about attempting to short as price will more likely than not continue higher as I have already been expecting. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
3
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/27/2019)Good morning, traders. As I have been warning, the movements now become quite volatile, and deep on drops. The order books thin out below price as it heads significantly higher in much shorter periods of time. That means that price slices down through the order book when people start selling until it finds a zone of demand. Bitcoin's price topped out just under $14000 yesterday at the daily R3 pivot before dropping suddenly down to ~$11500, rebounding, and now I believe it's finishing up its ABC regular flat correction of subwave 4 of subwave 5 of wave 3. If so, then this gives us a target of around ~$11130 before price begins heading upward once more. We can see a clear descending wedge printing, so traders will find their long entry much less risky by waiting for price to move above the wedge's resistance. Members of our free and paid Discord servers were alerted on June 25th that price would likely top out between $13650 and $14800 based off my PNF (point and figure) chart. The reversal point also aligns with my previous analysis utilizing the pitchfork on the daily TF. I'll link it below. If you make this chart yours, as described below, and zoom out to the 1D you will see more information such as the larger wave count I am still watching at this time and the pitchfork I mentioned above. Currently, it looks like wave 3 would end around the ATH, which should put it at the most outer band of the pitchfork, and wave 5 could hit $30K or potentially even higher, depending on the amount of FOMO coming in. Remember, anything above ATH is price discovery and price tends to move pretty easily through it as you've seen on newly-listed alts. If the count is as I believe it to be at this time, then wave 4 should retrace back toward the top of the 2018 TR at around $11000-$12000. Usually we expect wave 4 to retrace to the point of the previous wave 4 of the lesser degree (i.e. subwave 4 of the previous wave, which is our current wave). All this being as it is, if price continues lower at this point or the latter wave 4, then we should be expecting a bounce at the $10400/$10500 level, and below that at the $7500-$8500 level. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). The "more" often includes an analysis of ETHUSD, LTCUSD, XRPUSD, Gold, USD, and/or equities, as well as my thoughts on current news. So make sure you're joining me on Twitter, YouTube, and/or Discord. We'd love to have you following along! Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/26/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin has continued its climb, stopping just shy of $13,000 overnight before retracing to just under $12,200. Some of the crazy volatility hit my SL and stopped me out in profit last night but I longed once more and remain long at this time. Currently, it appears that price is printing a flag which should have a target of $14564. This is also just about the same target as the height of the ascending blue channel. The red line is the weekly resistance dating back to the beginning of 2018, which lines up almost perfectly as well. If price hits this level, then it completes its journey toward the target that I have been telling traders to watch for since it broke above the 2018 descending wedge in December. I don't know about anyone else that has had this target since then. I'm sure someone, somewhere did, but I haven't come across them yet. That being said, the question then becomes is this the end of Wave 3 or Wave 5? If you've been following me, then you know that Wave 3 would make for an easier count. Often, in Elliott Wave analysis, the easier count is the correct one. So, for now, that's what I'm looking at. Price can obviously continue higher from here as there is a lot of room above that red line. In that case, we would have to take another look at the count if it does. At this time, I am looking to exit in that green box somewhere between ~$14100 and ~$14600. I will be looking for confirmation before shorting. That ascending black line in the green box is the top of the ascending channel that began in the $4000s and touching it would give us 4 alternating touches of the channel. The target, if price were to exit the top of the channel today or tomorrow, based on the height of that large channel would be just around the ATH in the mid-$19000s. The 4H Stoch RSI seems just about tapped out, but the 1H Stoch RSI has a lot of room to run, and as we can see price has been consolidating right at/under the R2 pivot. A break up would have us looking for price to target the R3 pivot which happens to be at the low end of my green box. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). The "more" often includes an analysis of ETHUSD, LTCUSD, XRPUSD, Gold, USD, and/or equities, as well as my thoughts on current news. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
4
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/25/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin's price continued to grind up over night to a high of $11488 where it was rejected by the 15 minute R2 pivot. As a result, we've seen a sharp, quick drop of around $470 this morning which was also quickly bought up. These liquidity grabs help price continue its journey higher. I have continued to warn about this volatility at these levels after such a strong, continued push from the December 2018 low. Don't forget, the ~$11780 level is the 2018 TR resistance and just below that is the 4H R1 pivot at $11750, so traders should be mindful of possible temporary rejection at that point before continued upward movement. However, the target based on the height of the TR that price left overnight is ~$12366. This is based on Kraken, though, and the other exchanges often don't drop as far on the shakeouts since Kraken seems to suffer from liquidity issues on those shakeouts causing price to reach deeper for liquidity. So, if we take a look at Coinbase, Bitstamp, Bitmex, and Bitfinex, then we see that the TR is not as large and the target is actually $200-$270 lower at ~$12095-$12166. This is just a bit higher than my P&F target area between $11775 and $12075 (which was drawn on a Coinbase chart) suggesting that we may see some consolidation around this range. This doesn't mean that price won't reach $12366 on Kraken before consolidation, but traders must be mindful of the same pattern targets on other exchanges as they may differ as a result of the increased volatility at these levels. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw price hit the 2018 TR resistance and fall back to $11000/$11200 before pushing up once more and, finally, through it but that is just one of the many possibilities at this time. If price ultimately fails to get through that $11,800 level, then that could mark the top of the run. I believe we have higher to go, as I've stated numerous times, but that doesn't mean I haphazardly just long without thoughts about risk management. Traders absolutely must protect their capital above all else. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H chart (6/24/2019)Good morning, traders. We saw pretty much everything I said we would see this weekend -- Price eased through $10,000 just like it did at $6,000, it topped out around $11,200-$11,300 depending on which exchange you were watching (I mentioned a target of at least around $11,084 based on the pennant's flagpole height), and we saw strong volatility as price dropped $1200 and then $850, both suddenly. So far, the $10,000 level has held as support as I have been saying was likely once we got above it. Since the initial move above $11,000, and subsequent drop to $10,000, on Saturday, price has continued to print a TR. While there still seems to be a good bit of supply around $11,200, we can also see that slightly less effort was expended on the second drop which produced significantly less result. In other words, although there was a strong market desire to sell at that level, the demand that's showing up at $10,000-$10,7000 level is quite strong as well and buying up all that selling. Also important to note is that the volume on the first drop was only slightly more than the large demand spike about 14 hours prior and resulted in a very small candle body thereby suggesting that we still have higher to go. We can see price printing higher lows toward that upper resistance at this time. The 4H RSI shows us that back-to-back hidden bullish divergences printed. This is to be expected, as I have mentioned before, because of the large, sudden drop seen on Saturday. We can see that Stoch RSI is still oversold and RSI is now below overbought, though remains strongly bullish and is rising once more. We haven't really seen any Springs print during these reaccumulations on the way up, so we may not see one again this time around. However, that isn't a guarantee and we could still see price dip below the bottom of the TR. At this time, as mentioned above, price is printing higher lows so my immediate thought is that we will not see a Spring but, instead, will continue higher. Price has continued to move within the ascending blue channel that it has been printing since the mid-$8000s but because we don't have four alternating touches to the channel's support and resistance, it is not confirmed yet. Price has remained above the 21 EMA so far and is currently above the most recent 4H pivot. Notice that the top of the 2018 TR is at the 4H R1 pivot. The safest entry would be a break above the recent swing high of $11,286.80 (on Kraken). At this time, I am still expecting a move up to the lower-$14000s before a deeper correction, most likely back down to $11,500-$12,000. This would take price to the 2018 descending wedge target. Furthermore, such a move has the increased likelihood to see price reach the ATH area before completing a larger pullback and then proceed toward $22,500 at least. However, because of the FOMO expected once price leaves the 2018 TR resistance at $11,780, we could see price reach higher targets at each point before retracing a bit. So, as I continue to warn, traders should be utilizing strict, intelligent risk management while also suppressing their urge to FOMO. If price happens to drop, then I would be looking for a bounce around $9300/$9500. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks