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XBTUSD 4H chart (7/3/2019)Good morning, traders. Other than my apparent slight miscount on the subwaves yesterday, things are looking good for us and Bitcoin. There is the possibility that we may have completed the first small set of subwaves up and are now correcting a bit before heading higher. I would like to see price target the ~$10550/$10600 area for this correction. That would bring it down between 50% and 61.8% as well as have it bouncing off the pitchfork's median line. However, we may not see it head any lower than the ~$10750/$10800 level. This would happen if demand outweighs supply to a much greater extent than normal so it doesn't allow price to retrace as far as is usually expected, but it would still get price to the 12.5% pitchfork level. On the small TFs, we can already see good demand showing up at this morning's swing low of $10947, which is at the very top of that $10800 cluster. However, the wave count is not clear, but the bounce just above the previous demand is, so there is the possibility that this current pullback toward that cluster is subwave 4 of wave 3 and we are headed to $11900 to complete wave 3 (which would also be the target based on the height of the descending channel that price is printing) with a wave 5 target of the 15 minute R4 pivot at ~$13400 as well as the outer tine of the pitchfork as seen on this 4H TF. That would throw off the confluence of larger TF fibs mentioned further below, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to it. So I would be looking for a break above the recent swing high at $11576.20 to go long with a $13400 target if we are still completing the first set of subwaves, or a break below the recent swing low at $10947 if we have completed that first set. We can see that price exited the descending wedge that we were watching. Per yesterday's mention, that now gives us a target of ~$13850 based off the height of the descending wedge and ~$17355 based on the height of the flagpole leading up to that flag/wedge. The latter target would put this next wave up between the 1.414 and 1.618 extension of waves 1-3 which is what I would expect to at least hit since wave 3 extended just over 2.618. So, this latter target is likely, potentially even higher toward the R4 pivot at ~$18000, if my larger count is correct. It also aligns with yesterday's swing high being the top of the first subwave on this move up. Additionally, it sets up the wave 4 pullback before pushing through the ATH for wave 5, again if my larger TF count is correct. However, traders should remain cautious until price moves above the shorter target mentioned above. There's lots of profit to be made for traders that are patient and discerning about their entries. The 4H Stoch RSI is well oversold, as we can see, and RSI is bullish at 54. A pullback here would give this TF the strength to push through the $11800/$12200 area. But if wave 3 ends around $11900, then that allows the same pullback. We can also see the 4H pivot sitting just above price at $11665. We could see price hovering around the pivot and consolidating for the push above it. I have seen off-the-wall charts pulling weird "resistance levels" off odd TFs. If you think that using the 3H TF, for instance, is going to give you some kind of edge, you are mistaken. Worse yet is pulling those odd lines off that odd TF. That all being as it is, that weekly candle is still something to keep in mind per a possible reversal, but unless we get a weekly large candle spread supply candlestick following it, then that weekly candle is just a pause before a possible further move up. Again, we have seen similar candlestick patterns (there was one earlier this year) where there have been large upper wicks only to see price continue up afterward. Be sure to make this chart your own via the instructions below and then zoom in to the 15 minute TF to see the alternate wave counts I have 1) blue and 2) red to distinguish the two possibilities I discussed at the beginning of this analysis. Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H chart (7/2/2019)Good morning, traders. My chart is a bit full today, but I wanted to make sure you see the confluence that I will be speaking about below. With the continued pressure on $10K last night, I was stopped out of my long in slight profit and am short to $9500. I am expecting price to bounce at the $9300-$9500 level. We can see that price is printing an almost perfect ABC correction and we appear to be in the 5th wave (ending diagonal) of Wave C. As I have been mentioning, the 4H S1 pivot sits at $9400 (yes, I am exiting a bit earlier than the expected completion of the move. Liquidity is everything when entering/exiting) and finds confluence with the daily pitchfork support, ascending dotted line support, 1.272 extension of Wave A, and the top of the demand zone. The only thing that hasn't happened is the 4H RSI hitting oversold. At this point, we may not even get it with this expected move down, however we will have a flat RSI (just above oversold) if we don't and that is usually indicative of an impending reversal. We can see that demand is growing down here while supply, overall, is decreasing. The flag (descending wedge) printing has a potential target of ~$17000, based on the height of the flagpole, depending on when price moves above wedge resistance. We can also derive a target of ~$13540 based on the height of the descending wedge. If we get a bounce from the mid-$9Ks as expected and price prints an ABC rather than 1-5, then that lower target should be the expected cap on upward movement. In that case, we would expect to see price print a double combo (WXY) or triple combo (WXYXZ) correction. If that happens, then we would likely see the CME gap in the $8000s filled. However, remember, it does not have to fill right now even if it's going to fill eventually. Previously, it's taken up to more than a month for a gap to fill on a few separate occasions, so it's not unheard of that it doesn't fill before heading up higher. My expectation at this time, based on the appearance of clean ABC movement, is that we are completing reaccumulation after decline with a spring (once you make this chart yours via the directions below, zoom into the 1H to see the labeling of the TR). This means that I am expecting price to reach toward $17000 rather than stopping at $13540. But understand, that does not mean that I am long without thought now. This is nothing more than my current view of what's going on. As price moves, new information may come in that makes me lean the other way, in which case I would close out my long and go short. But that is unknown at this time. In either case, the move should be up toward that ~$13500 level at the least. Never forget, a good trader is fluid, not rigid, and able to trade with new information. Be sure to join me every week day morning at the YouTube address below for a video look at the market where I go more in-depth and often look at other cryptos and/or markets as well. Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!" Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
12
XBTUSD 1H chart (7/1/2019)Good morning, traders. I mentioned some things to watch for on Friday and stated that I would be wary around $12500 if we didn't see strong demand following through on a move up. Sure enough, price was rejected at around $12450 and has been moving steadily downward since. Ultimately, it seems like price is just building a base before moving up higher, similar to what it did at $5000 and $8000, but this is very preliminary assumption. Novice traders often want answers immediately, but the market takes time to develop. They also tend to relish in conspiracy theories about huge market manipulations. Don't be that person. Just pay attention to what's going on rather than concoct some story. Sideways movement gives us some time to step back and observe. In other words, patience is the name of the game at the moment. Luckily for us, alts have been popping, so there is some trading to be done while waiting for Bitcoin to let us know what it is going to do. The daily TF shows possible hidden bullish divergence in RSI over the past 4 days. However, we would need to see price move up by the close of today's candle, the higher the better, to likely confirm it. We can also see that new pivots have printed and price is sitting on the daily pivot. Of course bouncing off the pivot would be bullish and we would look for price to target the R1 pivot/swing high. When looking at the current price level and the possible hidden bullish divergence (which, if it plays out, means continuation upward) we could be seeing a double bottom forming. This is after the double top that printed and has a target of ~$10200. As with all pattern targets, this target is general rather than specific. In other words, price many times does not completely reach the pattern target, and sometimes it surpasses it, but the target gives us an idea of where to look. If the double bottom does print, then a close above the swing high of $12465 between the two possible bottoms would confirm it. At that point, the target would be ~$16345. The weekly candle looks ugly though, and that's the biggest signal that gives me pause at this time. It is best described as a gravestone doji which indicates a possible reversal on this large TF. However, without confirmation that price is headed down (large body bearish candlestick this week) it remains just a possibility and, thus, is a pause in the upward trend for now. While it does not necessarily mean that price will continue a larger correction toward $8000/$8500, it is definitely worth paying attention to. As a matter of fact, we could see the move up to $16345, for instance, before the end of the week and end up printing another large upper wick on a weekly candle as price drops once more. This could, theoretically, give us tweezer tops on the weekly which would be a strong signal that the sideways movement may be extended for a while and we could see $9500 or, if that doesn't hold, $8500. In that case, I would expect a full-on alt season to be in swing. All that being said, we can see that price is at the EQ of the weekly demand zone which explains the order book that I discuss below. The order books are currently showing exceptional bidding around $10K as expected and, again, at $9500-$9600. However, overall, it is strong from this point downward. To put it into perspective, Kraken order books are showing 1100 BTC bids down through $10K or 2100 through $9500. Asks, on the other hand, are showing only 1275 BTC through $14250. What this means is there is significantly more interest in buying within $1000 below the current level than there is in selling $3500 above the current level. As a matter of fact, we can see that it costs almost the same amount of BTC for price to drop $650 as it does for price to rise $3600. While these orders can be pulled if price drops, and moving up would see some added to the ask side, it does give us an idea of the current market interest levels. If real demand shows up, price would have a relatively easy move upward, and this is why traders should be patient and allow price action to play out at the moment. The 3D TF is currently playing out the bearish divergence it printed. The 12H TF still has a possibility of hidden bullish divergence, similar to the daily, playing out. However, on the 12H TF, price is under the newly-formed pivot which means we could see it bounce off the S1 pivot at $9400. The 1H TF is showing multiple bullish divergences playing out consecutively. This often happens as demand begins to overcome supply. We can see supply volume dropping, overall, as price as reached toward the mid-$10Ks while demand volume appears to potentially be picking up slowly. Specifically, the daily candle, which still has about 1/3 of the day to go before it closes, is currently showing a large supply bar but very small candle spread. If the day closes similar or better, then that would be bullish. Finally, the CME has daily gaps down into the $8Ks, however there have been times in the past where it has taken a month to fill similar gaps. So, what I am saying is what I have continued to say -- patience is key. Let the market show you what it's going to do and THEN enter. Don't try to guess what it's going to do and enter before confirmation because that will most likely find you at the losing end of a trade. We will be talking about all of this and more in this morning's video update at the YouTube link below. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/28/2019)Good morning, traders. The update I posted yesterday to my TV chart was spot on and price bounced out of the red box. I first went long around $10776. On our paid Discord side, traders were able to trade along with me and get an explanation of what I was seeing and what it meant as I bought and sold this move up. Unlike other Discord servers out there, ours is an immersion experience for new and seasoned traders. This allowed many of them to enter much closer to the reversal as we noted a possible double bottom forming around $10300 on the very short TF chart which also tested the 1H pivot as support. Ultimately, we have seen an almost $2000 price increase in less than 24 hours. Now I know that most traders out there are swearing this is the larger correction and that price will head further down. However, I am not of that mind just yet. I warned that we would see strong moves like this while price is parabolic. It doesn't matter whether it's some "whale" selling $100M of Bitcoin on Coinbase or something else, the underlying cause for the strong movement is psychological. With price pushing hard and fast upward, traders of all wallet sizes tend to get scared and pick opportunities to lock in profits along the way. When the initial sell is large enough, it causes retail traders to sell out of fear and this cascades, especially when the order books are thinly bid due to the large, strong upward movement of price. Simply put, there just isn't enough of a base right under price when the selling starts to support it. While that doesn't mean that I am ignoring the possibility of a larger movement down, it does mean that I am looking at more bullish price structures and targets until they no longer play out. This means that I am buying the dips rather than shorting the rallies at this time. If it does head further down then the mid-$9000s, as I have been mentioning, would be the likely bounce zone. The ~$2000 increase over yesterday's low, coupled with 5x leverage on Kraken and making a total of 4 trades in that time, has resulted in a 100% increase in that trading account. This is without shorting, only longing, the dips. I am known to constantly explain to novice traders that they do not have to utilize 50X or 100X leverage to make money. They just have to trade intelligently. And I continue to prove that to our Discord members in real time thereby giving them the confidence to let go of their preconceived notions about trading so that they can create real, lasting wealth for themselves. So where are we at now? In terms of the larger picture, price is currently attempting to push, and remain, above the 1H R1 pivot/2018 TR resistance around $11,800 (the purple horizontal line). The long red horizontal lines are the weekly pivots with the one below price being the pivot and the one above it being the R1 pivot. A daily close back above this ~$11800 level would be bullish. While the weekly candle doesn't look too hot at the moment, with 3 days left until the candle closes there's more than enough time to change it. We can see that price exited the large descending wedge and is currently back above the 1H 21 EMA. Notice that the target of the wedge is just above that weekly R1 pivot. Additionally, we can see a possible double bottom on this 1H chart as well. While price has closed above the swing high between the bottoms, I want to see price bounce off that swing high resistance and use it as support, which is what it appears price is attempting to do at this time. If it does, then the target of the double bottom is also near the weekly R1 pivot as shown. This could also be seen as an ascending triangle, however the target remains the same so feel free to use whichever pattern you are more comfortable with. Both of these targets are above the 1H R2 pivot as seen as well. That kind of movement would be considered bullish. Although demand volume is growing, without a strong show of demand just yet, I am going to be wary around ~$12500 for now. Finally, I wouldn't be surprised to see price build a base in this area, similar to what was done at the $8000 level. So far we have had the large initial drop that creates the TR. As such, if price doesn't immediately take out the daily swing high from a couple of days ago, just under $14000, I would pay attention to price within the larger TF TR. Does it find support at the TR's EQ after testing that swing high? As we can see, that is currently level that price is consolidating just below. If so, then I would be extremely careful about attempting to short as price will more likely than not continue higher as I have already been expecting. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
3
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/27/2019)Good morning, traders. As I have been warning, the movements now become quite volatile, and deep on drops. The order books thin out below price as it heads significantly higher in much shorter periods of time. That means that price slices down through the order book when people start selling until it finds a zone of demand. Bitcoin's price topped out just under $14000 yesterday at the daily R3 pivot before dropping suddenly down to ~$11500, rebounding, and now I believe it's finishing up its ABC regular flat correction of subwave 4 of subwave 5 of wave 3. If so, then this gives us a target of around ~$11130 before price begins heading upward once more. We can see a clear descending wedge printing, so traders will find their long entry much less risky by waiting for price to move above the wedge's resistance. Members of our free and paid Discord servers were alerted on June 25th that price would likely top out between $13650 and $14800 based off my PNF (point and figure) chart. The reversal point also aligns with my previous analysis utilizing the pitchfork on the daily TF. I'll link it below. If you make this chart yours, as described below, and zoom out to the 1D you will see more information such as the larger wave count I am still watching at this time and the pitchfork I mentioned above. Currently, it looks like wave 3 would end around the ATH, which should put it at the most outer band of the pitchfork, and wave 5 could hit $30K or potentially even higher, depending on the amount of FOMO coming in. Remember, anything above ATH is price discovery and price tends to move pretty easily through it as you've seen on newly-listed alts. If the count is as I believe it to be at this time, then wave 4 should retrace back toward the top of the 2018 TR at around $11000-$12000. Usually we expect wave 4 to retrace to the point of the previous wave 4 of the lesser degree (i.e. subwave 4 of the previous wave, which is our current wave). All this being as it is, if price continues lower at this point or the latter wave 4, then we should be expecting a bounce at the $10400/$10500 level, and below that at the $7500-$8500 level. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). The "more" often includes an analysis of ETHUSD, LTCUSD, XRPUSD, Gold, USD, and/or equities, as well as my thoughts on current news. So make sure you're joining me on Twitter, YouTube, and/or Discord. We'd love to have you following along! Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/26/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin has continued its climb, stopping just shy of $13,000 overnight before retracing to just under $12,200. Some of the crazy volatility hit my SL and stopped me out in profit last night but I longed once more and remain long at this time. Currently, it appears that price is printing a flag which should have a target of $14564. This is also just about the same target as the height of the ascending blue channel. The red line is the weekly resistance dating back to the beginning of 2018, which lines up almost perfectly as well. If price hits this level, then it completes its journey toward the target that I have been telling traders to watch for since it broke above the 2018 descending wedge in December. I don't know about anyone else that has had this target since then. I'm sure someone, somewhere did, but I haven't come across them yet. That being said, the question then becomes is this the end of Wave 3 or Wave 5? If you've been following me, then you know that Wave 3 would make for an easier count. Often, in Elliott Wave analysis, the easier count is the correct one. So, for now, that's what I'm looking at. Price can obviously continue higher from here as there is a lot of room above that red line. In that case, we would have to take another look at the count if it does. At this time, I am looking to exit in that green box somewhere between ~$14100 and ~$14600. I will be looking for confirmation before shorting. That ascending black line in the green box is the top of the ascending channel that began in the $4000s and touching it would give us 4 alternating touches of the channel. The target, if price were to exit the top of the channel today or tomorrow, based on the height of that large channel would be just around the ATH in the mid-$19000s. The 4H Stoch RSI seems just about tapped out, but the 1H Stoch RSI has a lot of room to run, and as we can see price has been consolidating right at/under the R2 pivot. A break up would have us looking for price to target the R3 pivot which happens to be at the low end of my green box. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). The "more" often includes an analysis of ETHUSD, LTCUSD, XRPUSD, Gold, USD, and/or equities, as well as my thoughts on current news. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
4
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/25/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin's price continued to grind up over night to a high of $11488 where it was rejected by the 15 minute R2 pivot. As a result, we've seen a sharp, quick drop of around $470 this morning which was also quickly bought up. These liquidity grabs help price continue its journey higher. I have continued to warn about this volatility at these levels after such a strong, continued push from the December 2018 low. Don't forget, the ~$11780 level is the 2018 TR resistance and just below that is the 4H R1 pivot at $11750, so traders should be mindful of possible temporary rejection at that point before continued upward movement. However, the target based on the height of the TR that price left overnight is ~$12366. This is based on Kraken, though, and the other exchanges often don't drop as far on the shakeouts since Kraken seems to suffer from liquidity issues on those shakeouts causing price to reach deeper for liquidity. So, if we take a look at Coinbase, Bitstamp, Bitmex, and Bitfinex, then we see that the TR is not as large and the target is actually $200-$270 lower at ~$12095-$12166. This is just a bit higher than my P&F target area between $11775 and $12075 (which was drawn on a Coinbase chart) suggesting that we may see some consolidation around this range. This doesn't mean that price won't reach $12366 on Kraken before consolidation, but traders must be mindful of the same pattern targets on other exchanges as they may differ as a result of the increased volatility at these levels. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw price hit the 2018 TR resistance and fall back to $11000/$11200 before pushing up once more and, finally, through it but that is just one of the many possibilities at this time. If price ultimately fails to get through that $11,800 level, then that could mark the top of the run. I believe we have higher to go, as I've stated numerous times, but that doesn't mean I haphazardly just long without thoughts about risk management. Traders absolutely must protect their capital above all else. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H chart (6/24/2019)Good morning, traders. We saw pretty much everything I said we would see this weekend -- Price eased through $10,000 just like it did at $6,000, it topped out around $11,200-$11,300 depending on which exchange you were watching (I mentioned a target of at least around $11,084 based on the pennant's flagpole height), and we saw strong volatility as price dropped $1200 and then $850, both suddenly. So far, the $10,000 level has held as support as I have been saying was likely once we got above it. Since the initial move above $11,000, and subsequent drop to $10,000, on Saturday, price has continued to print a TR. While there still seems to be a good bit of supply around $11,200, we can also see that slightly less effort was expended on the second drop which produced significantly less result. In other words, although there was a strong market desire to sell at that level, the demand that's showing up at $10,000-$10,7000 level is quite strong as well and buying up all that selling. Also important to note is that the volume on the first drop was only slightly more than the large demand spike about 14 hours prior and resulted in a very small candle body thereby suggesting that we still have higher to go. We can see price printing higher lows toward that upper resistance at this time. The 4H RSI shows us that back-to-back hidden bullish divergences printed. This is to be expected, as I have mentioned before, because of the large, sudden drop seen on Saturday. We can see that Stoch RSI is still oversold and RSI is now below overbought, though remains strongly bullish and is rising once more. We haven't really seen any Springs print during these reaccumulations on the way up, so we may not see one again this time around. However, that isn't a guarantee and we could still see price dip below the bottom of the TR. At this time, as mentioned above, price is printing higher lows so my immediate thought is that we will not see a Spring but, instead, will continue higher. Price has continued to move within the ascending blue channel that it has been printing since the mid-$8000s but because we don't have four alternating touches to the channel's support and resistance, it is not confirmed yet. Price has remained above the 21 EMA so far and is currently above the most recent 4H pivot. Notice that the top of the 2018 TR is at the 4H R1 pivot. The safest entry would be a break above the recent swing high of $11,286.80 (on Kraken). At this time, I am still expecting a move up to the lower-$14000s before a deeper correction, most likely back down to $11,500-$12,000. This would take price to the 2018 descending wedge target. Furthermore, such a move has the increased likelihood to see price reach the ATH area before completing a larger pullback and then proceed toward $22,500 at least. However, because of the FOMO expected once price leaves the 2018 TR resistance at $11,780, we could see price reach higher targets at each point before retracing a bit. So, as I continue to warn, traders should be utilizing strict, intelligent risk management while also suppressing their urge to FOMO. If price happens to drop, then I would be looking for a bounce around $9300/$9500. As always, I will be discussing this and more in this morning's YouTube video (link is below). Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/21/2019)Good morning, traders. Price has not initiated the short term pullback I was anticipating possibly happening around $9700 which is a testament to current demand and lack of retail supply. Last night, I closed my long and went short but with a very tight stop just in case price continued up, which it did. I was stopped out at a very small loss and have been long again since then. If we readjust my triangle from the past few days just a bit (pull it in tighter) as shown, then we are on the first set of subwaves after the breakout. This gives price a target of around $10500 which is the EQ of the ascending channel, but the flagpole leading to the pennant gives us a target of ~$1184. However, these would also need to be very shallow targets on some strong movement if price is to reach the top of the channel as expected. Reaching the channel resistance should have price in the low-to-mid $14000s, depending on how soon and fast price moves up. As I have mentioned numerous times before, this would be the 2018 descending wedge target as well as my expected wave 3 target. All this being as it is, we can expect a lot of volatility as price takes out $10,000. That means that there will likely be large sudden drops and rises along the way until price hits its high. What I mean is that if price reaches that $14000 level, then I would expect a sudden strong drop back toward $10000 followed by a strong move back up beyond $14000. Unfortunately, with all the speculation required at this current price level this is also the place where analysts, including myself, will get targets wrong and amateur traders will deride them for it. Don't be that person. The fact is, above $10,000 retail FOMO will start building and once above $11780 it will really take over. There's just no way to accurately project targets with any real certainty based on that. However, if price heads in that direction, then I believe I've given a pretty decent guide, over the past few months, to likely price movement beyond $10000. Risk management should always be at the top of your trading plan but even much more so right now. You absolutely need to protect your capital during volatility. If you get stopped out, don't just FOMO and haphazardly jump back in afraid you're going to miss out and/or revenge trade. There will be pullbacks along the way, as mentioned above, so watch for those on the larger TFs if you intend to go long again. And, remember, nothing says that price MUST break $10,000 or that, once it does, it MUST continue up to $14000 and $20000+. This is just what I believe to be the most likely path price will take, if it does break $10000, for the reasons I've stated on numerous occassions over the past ~1.5 years. As I am just about to post this, I see a $200 price drop from ~$9900-~$9700 in a matter of minutes. If you are going to trade right now, this is the kind of volatility (and much greater) that you should be expecting, so trade accordingly. Potential bear divs are printing along many TFs as well, so if price doesn't get moving sooner rather than later, we could see the effect of that on price. Pay attention to what's going on as I wouldn't be surprised to see price make a trip to the bottom of the local TR (trading range) and possibly even print a Spring before heading up once more. In that case, I'd look for price to bounce from demand in the mid-$9500s. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
3
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/19/2019)Good morning, traders. Price dropped a bit lower yesterday, as I noted in Discord was a possibility as the day played out, but the TR remains reaccumulation with uprise since we still have higher lows consolidating toward the resistance at the top of the TR. This means that I really don't have anything to add on the lower TF analysis. So, I want to remind you that I have been watching this larger pattern at $9000 play out similarly to the pattern at $5000. Currently, price is printing the smaller consolidation on top of the larger consolidation as it did previously. If price continues to follow the pattern, then we can expect a move to ~$9,700, rejection and retracement toward ~$9100, followed by a push through $10,000. Obviously this is a big "if" and traders should continue to adhere to strict risk management. We also have to remember that patterns follow along generally, not exactly. The 4H RSI is bullish at 53.5 and is printing a descending channel. It is nearing a breakout of the channel resistance. Stoch RSI is still oversold. We can see how the price action, RSI, and Stoch RSI align between the two patterns. The only thing we don't know for sure is how high price will push if the pattern continues playing out. These past few weeks, I have given traders multiple targets to watch based on patterns, pivots, parabolic blow off top, and fib levels. However, I still believe the most important target is the 2018 descending wedge target of ~$14,500. With that in mind, if we see a strong vertical push occur, then we usually expect price to top out around the 4H R5 pivot (could go a bit higher). The short horizontal red lines denote the R5 pivots at the previous pushes and we can see that is exactly what happened. Currently, that would mean that we could expect price to top just above the current R5 pivot of $13,830. As such, the descending wedge target is not out of the picture. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
1
XBTUSD 1H/BTCUSD 1M charts (6/18/2019)Good morning, traders. There's not a whole lot to say right now. Price has continued its consolidation into today, printing higher lows toward the resistance around $9400. A close above the TR's resistance should provide us with a minimum target of the $10,050 level on this 1H Bitmex chart. I am watching for RSI to close above its resistance to signal the likely beginning of the next push up. Zooming out to the larger monthly picture, we can see previous and current price action without all the noise. If we anchor the Schiff Pitchfork at the previous correction's low, the ATH, and then the 2018 low, we can see that price is following along perfectly. Having pushed up through the bottom of the monthly pivot, and now sitting on top of it, we should expect price to move sideways for a bit, at worst, with the R1 and R2 pivots being the next targets. I have left the historical pivots turned on so that traders can understand how price travels between them. As we can see, the idea that price will return to the $6000s is not supported based on previous movement since price has closed above the pivot. However, my target of the R2 pivot is clearly quite likely. That being said, past performance is never a guarantee of future performance, so risk management remains key. Traders should note that the projected descending wedge target and R1 pivot are located between the pitchfork's median and the 25% tine. When it comes to the pitchfork, as you can see, price usually targets the next tine higher, pulls back, and then targets the next one higher than that. Using the pitchfork in conjunction with the pivots on this monthly TF will likely produce much better results for retail traders over the next year than 15 minute charts. Unfortunately, most retail traders will choose the latter because they don't have patience but they have an over-abundance of emotion. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 1D chart (6/17/2019)Good morning, traders. As I warned on Friday, "...what appears to be a wedge, many times, is nothing more than price grinding toward channel resistance and when it pops through it usually makes quite the move." After this weekend, price now sits ~$1000 higher while printing a large ~$1350 engulfing candle. Is it a bullish engulfing candle? I don't believe it fits the definition since there wasn't a downtrend, rather just a 1 period drop followed by that candle. That said, it's still bullish and it makes more sense for traders to look for higher highs than lower highs at this time. In terms of the VPVR, we can see that price is clearly above the highest volume nodes which generally means that it's easier for price to move up higher than it is to drop lower. The relevant weekly/monthly pivots are labeled in purple, and they are probably the most useful targets of all right now. Those of you that have been following me for a while know that I've had issues with potential Elliott Wave counts. I've provided a few different possible counts, but have always lamented that I cannot drop a line from the bottom of wave 2 to the possible wave 4 bottom. There has also been the confusion amongst EW traders about whether we are in the 3rd or 5th wave (although it seems that most have delegated price to the 5th wave at this time). But what if this is the count? What if wave 3 doesn't begin until the break through $4000? If so, then all of the sudden the count becomes much easier with the consolidation under $5000 being subwave 2 of wave 3 and the hard drop in May being subwave 4 of wave 3. That would most likely have us in subwave 5 of wave 3 right now. Using the large ascending channel as a guide for wave 4, based on wave 2, then that would give us a wave 3 target of the ascending channel's EQ just above the daily R2 pivot and the 2018 TR's resistance, most likely near the monthly R1 pivot which would occur by the end of the month. We would then see price retrace for about 2-3 weeks during July as it prints wave 4, followed by a large move up for wave 5. Where would wave 5 target? Based on the channel, it seems most likely that we would see it target the top of the ascending channel around the R2 pivot/4.618 extension ($22,000-$24300). Again, for those of you who have been following me, these targets aren't surprising. It is the same thing I have been mentioning for months now, except we have a lot more data to support such a move. This would also mean that $10,000-$12,000 likely becomes the floor for wave 2 before the next push up. For those of you still interested in the parabola, this count gives us the first base at subwave 2 of wave 3, second base at subwave 4 of wave 3, and third base at wave 4. Remember, what I've said about parabolic movement off the 3rd base -- it generally provides 100%+ in movement which means we should expect the blow off top around ~$20,000 or more. Finally, don't forget, the expectation is for retail to finally start FOMOing in as price moves through $10,000, and especially when it moves through the top of the 2018 TR just under $12,000. I am going to take a look at LTCUSD, XRPUSD, and ETHUSD during this morning's video, as well as a deeper look at what I am discussing here, so be sure to check in at the YouTube link below. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
10
BTCUSD 6H chart (6/14/2019)Good morning, traders. We've made it to Friday once more but those of us in the U.S. awoke to news that Binance will suspend trading of U.S.-based customers in 90 days (September 12th). This is expected since Binance is actually opening a U.S. exchange. In doing so, there are certain U.S. regulations that they must adhere to which requires them to do what they can to restrict U.S. customers from using their main exchange. By doing this, they can come into compliance with the laws and make sure their U.S. launch is smooth and unencumbered. With U.S. customers making up a paltry 15% of Binance's volume, I don't see this having much effect on alts. If it does, it will be reactionary and temporary from emotional retail traders who imagine the worst. We don't have a launch date for the U.S. exchange yet, however U.S. customers will either VPN to the main Binance exchange (as long as they aren't KYC-processed yet) after September 12th, or they will trade on one of the U.S.-based exchanges like Bittrex, Poloniex, Coinbase, Gemini (don't do this), or Kraken. The benefit of this is increased liquidity at these exchanges and, with Bittrex in particular, I believe we may see a new season for old-school alts. So what's going on with Bitcoin today? Same old story, different day. Just a slow grind upward within a large, month-old TR for now. However, there are some general things that I want to remind you of: 1) price has exited through the large descending black channel's resistance which provides a target of ~$9050, 2) price is consolidating just above the red TR with a target of ~$8850, 3) price is possibly printing an ascending wedge with a target of $7650-$7750 depending on when price drops through wedge support. In terms of the wedge, a break through its resistance, instead, has a target between $8950 and $9050 depending on when it does so. The 4H Stoch RSI has remained within overbought for a while now and RSI is nearing overbought (as it hovers near its ascending channel resistance). If we don't see a strong push up toward $9000 sooner rather than later, it seems most likely that the wedge will play out. We can see the R1 pivot at ~$8430, as well as the top of the blue month-old TR just below that at $8352. Price topping out anywhere between its current level and the R1 pivot makes sense and allows it to retrace before pushing higher. A retrace is likely looking at $7850-$7960 before heading back up. I am a little hesitant about the lower end of that range, though, since it takes price below the pivot and since we've already pushed up through the pivot the expectation should be continued upward momentum. As such, if the wedge plays out then we might expect to see price reach $8500-$8550 before falling through wedge support thereby providing a retracement range that is above the pivot. I would like to see price remain above the red TR's EQ as that would show strong demand. A final word on ascending wedges: Often retail traders want to see a wedge because, to them, it makes it easier to justify their fear of price reversing as it grinds up slowly. Remember, the longer it takes price to move appreciably the more time a trader has to consider and reconsider their position, often leading them to change their minds and jump in and out. So what appears to be a wedge, many times, is nothing more than price grinding toward channel resistance and when it pops through it usually makes quite the move. During this morning's video update (link below) I will take a look at some possible Elliott Wave counts and what I think may be going on from that perspective. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 1D chart (6/13/2019)Good morning, traders. After yesterday's $300 pop, price has been retracing as expected. At this point, it appears that price should be about ready to start moving up again as it has bounced around the $8050 level which was the general resistance area prior to the pop. However, we are going to zoom out to the daily once more and take a look at the Coinbase chart. I've mentioned before, but will again, I do not believe this to be a head and shoulders pattern. Most other professional traders that have been around for a number of years appear to agree with me as well, not the least of which is Peter Brandt. The amateur traders, however, have been littering social media (Tradingview included) with the H&S nonsense. The green box is the weekly order block from around the first week of November 2017. I've pointed it out before and am doing so once more because I believe that price will not drop below this level. It took a terminal shakeout to get price below it last November and now that it has been done it won't be done again. Currently, price has made it back above the red line which is the monthly pivot. It is also above the 21 EMA. The dashed line just above price is the 2018 TR's EQ. We can see that the daily pivot also has held as support so far. Furthermore, the daily RSI is attempting to break through its resistance and Stoch RSI has recently left oversold. Both have a lot of room to run. All of this is bullish. Stop concentrating on the 15 minute TFs right now. Price is also at the top of the month-long TR and a break above $8388 on this chart will signal that price has moved above the TR's resistance which means all it has to do is close above the swing high at $9090 to signal further upside. The purple curve shows that price is possibly still parabolic and, if so, then we shouldn't be surprised to see price top out around $14000-$18000. But if it's going to do so, then it would be expected to do so sooner rather than later. In a parabola, the last push up is the most violent and often produes 100% growth over the pattern's 3rd base which is what appears to be printing at this time. This current consolidation area really seems no different than the previous one at $5000, which I've pointed out numerous times. The longer it plays out the more similar it becomes. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/12/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to trade sideways while printing higher lows toward the $8100 resistance on the lower TFs. It doesn't amaze me anymore that novice traders think highly bearish in spite of this development. Many of y'all are still in disbelief at this 6 month bull market. Sadly, what they fail to understand is that even a correction toward $6000 is not bearish. It's a pullback in a bull market. It's one of the most bullish things that can happen as it gives traders the opportunity to ride the next wave up. The biggest thing that novice traders have to overcome is their emotion and they can start by choosing to use non-emotional words. The higher lows on the lower TFs don't guarantee that price will go up, but they should at least give traders pause when being so bearish. The higher TFs are showing higher lows and higher highs, however price has been trading sideways for a month now while printing a higher high and currently a possible higher low. The daily shows price consolidating against resistance. A couple of days ago price left the descending channel it had been in for two weeks prior. It then retested channel resistance as support yesterday and since then has been printing higher lows and highs. I have two support lines noted on the 1H RSI and 1H Stoch RSI is consolidating just under overbought. The higher lows toward resistance has me thinking that we should see a good pop upward through that resistance. As a reminder, the red line is the monthly pivot, the dashed purple line is the 2018 TR EQ, and the horizontal black line around $8400 is the top of the TR that price has been printing for about a month now. Price is also currently back above the 1H pivot. There are a couple of targets to watch at this time based on channels and TRs. The red target is based on the large descending channel and targets that fresh supply in the blue zone from the recent swing high. The blue target is based on the blue TR and targets the 2018 TR EQ. The purple target is one that traders should also keep an eye on. There is the possibility that price has printed a triple bottom as noted in purple. If price can close above that swing high at $8115, then we could see price targeting ~$8800 and that gets it pretty close to the red channel target at ~$8970. If price falls further, then I will continue watching the same support levels that I have been mentioning for a while now including the noted demand zones on this chart. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSDT/BTCUSD 4H/15 min charts (6/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Price has been consolidating/retracing within the expected area mentioned yesterday and looks ready to head higher up now. Once price exits through the descending broadening wedge's resistance, it will be back above the 4H pivot which is bullish. We should then see price targeting ~$8480 based on the height of the flagpole leading up to the wedge. This targeted level also happens to be the 4H R1 pivot, but may change depending on how long it takes price to rise through the wedge's resistance. There is also a slightly lower target of ~$8297 based on the height of the widest part of the wedge. Like the flagpole target, this could change depending on how long it takes price to exit the wedge. Shorter-term, price printed a descending channel at the bottom of the descending broadening wedge as it bounced off the 61.8% retracement of the recent move up. Having pushed through the channel's resistance, price has a projected target of ~$7880 based on the height of that local channel. This move down over the past 24 hours has done nothing more, so far, than retest the previous descending channel's resistance as support. As such, price still has a target of ~$8973 based on the height of that channel as well. On the 15 minute chart, I would watch for RSI to breach the descending resistance to indicate upward price progression. The 4H chart shows RSI printing an ascending channel. If RSI happens to fall through the channel support, it is likely we will have to re-evaluate the expected price movement. As long as it remains within the channel, however, price should continue on the path outlined above. The 1H chart is printing bullish divergence in RSI and Stoch RSI is bottomed out in oversold and printing a bullish cross. The 15 minute Stoch RSI is looking taxed at the moment, so we may see price print a small TR as it resets if we don't see it pop up soon. If price, for some reason, does not head up from this level and instead moves down, then I expect the lower blue demand zone to provide the bounce. Ultimately, my expectation remains the same -- that price will continue to climb within the large purple ascending channel on the 4H chart that price has printed since it started the 3rd wave up from the $3300 level. As such, we can see that there is the possibility that price could continue sideways for a bit longer as well without violating channel support. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD/BTCUSDT 1H and 3D charts (6/10/2019)Good morning, traders. The price swings as of late have been great for shorter-term traders, but are causing havoc on investors or those holding for longer periods because they don't know what they're doing. So they allow the noise (swings) to cause them stress and then emotionally sell out of one losing position and into another even though they supposedly bought for a longer term hold. As a result, most retail traders right now are trading scared, moving from one trade to the next and losing money in the process. They continue to jump into positions almost immediately after they exit another in order to "make up" their losses. If this sounds like you, please stop. Step back and take some time away from the market to get your emotions under control. You will lose a lot more money jumping around like that, chasing price, than you will by stepping back and relaxing. The reality is that all that's happened is that price has continued moving sideways in a TR. That's it. Accept your current losses rather than trying to revenge trade your way back into profit. My 4H chart from June 5th () remains the most relevant at this time. While the shortest term EW count has become invalidated, the larger count remains valid for now. More importantly, the TR chart on the right side shows price exiting through the descending channel's resistance. This now projects a channel target of $8960. The expectation, after the recent $400 rise, is to see consolidation above this local resistance before the next push up. As it's been, the red horizontal line marks the weekly/monthly pivot which price has been consolidating around as it prints the larger TR. I remain cautious at this time. Until price exits the TR, we don't know for sure which way it is going. All this chop within the TR is why novice traders end up losing their money. The trends are easy, it's when you attempt to trade smaller TF sideways movement that you lose your capital. The weekly didn't close well. We had a long-legged doji two weeks ago followed by a large bearish candle last week. Most traders consider this an indication that price is headed down, and many times it is. I have the 3D Binance BTCUSD chart attached for you to consider. The weekly 21 EMA is around $6100/$6150, so a trip lower would have me watching that level for the reversal if the two purple lines don't support price. The weekly/monthly R1 pivot remains at ~$12900, so a trip higher would have me watching that level as a target. The large descending wedge target is at ~$14500, which is the next target higher I am keeping an eye on. It still seems to me that the order block created the first week of November 2017 (highlighted in grey) is the dominant level. This is where price was supported throughout most of 2018 until the terminal shakeout in November and is the level that price is currently sitting above. If this is wave 4 printing right now, then the black TR in the Binance chart to the left states that we should see price testing the TR's resistance next at around $9000, if not a bit higher. If it does, then we usually expect price to return toward the TR's EQ at around ~$8200 or, if there is still too much supply, we will potentially see price targeting the bottom of the TR, or just below it (watch for a wick to the 3D 21 EMA to create a Spring). As mentioned last week, if this is wave 4 printing, then we should also be watching for a pennant to print in this area on the larger TF instead of price just heading up and out. Since wave 2 was 1.5 months in duration, wave 4 should be expected to play out over a month or so. We still have a couple of more weeks before price heads higher in that scenario. Short term, we should see price targeting the top of the ascending channel around $8400/$8450. However, be wary of the $8150/8250 level. If price is unable to move past that right now, then it will likely have to retrace toward $7950/$8000 before trying once more. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
4
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/7/2019) BULLISHGood morning, traders. I mentioned that I was cautious yesterday pending the outcome of the local TR. I said that we needed to see demand volume increasing, especially as price pushed through the descending blue resistance to signal a likely reversal, and we did. Price attempted to print a Spring on Bitstamp, but was not able to do so (price remained above the bottom of the TR support). Bitfinex actually saw price print the Spring. In both cases, the supply volume was lower when compared to the supply volume coming into the TR. This lower supply participation in this area was a great signal to initiate a long. Confirming the reversal is the expanding demand volume and growing candle spread as price has risen from that point. As a result, price has printed an SOS, is currently retesting the TR resistance as support, and will be looking for the $8175/$8200 level I believe. This will put price right into that overhead supply and at the descending channel resistance where we should look for a rejection and pullback before price pushes through the descending channel resistance. Based on the height of the channel, we should expect price to target the $9300 level. If we see price getting to that point, then I am inclined to believe that it will only be subwave 1 of subwave 3 of wave 5. Remember, I am operating under the assumption that the recent drop was a subwave 2 simple ABC correction. Taking a look at price action another way, price is currently confirming the double bottom that it printed as it tests the peak of that pattern as support. The target based on the height of the double bottom is $8413 on Bitstamp. This necessarily will push price through the descending channel resistance which sets up the ~$9300 target mentioned earlier. As we can see, price is also printing a flag with a target of the ~$8200 area, also mentioned above, based on the height of the flagpole. The red line that price was rejected at a few hours ago before retesting resistance as support is the weekly/monthly pivot. In terms of the 1H pivots, we can see that the immediate targets are at the S1 pivot with the larger channel target at the R1 pivot. Finally, the daily 21 EMA is currently sitting just overhead at $7940. Price continuing to head above that EMA, the monthly pivot, and the 1H pivot is all bullish. Therefore, while nothing is ever guaranteed in the charts, things look a lot more bullish than bearish at this time. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 30 minute chart (6/6/2019)Good morning, traders. I am more cautious at this time than what I have been. Price has failed to get back above the 21 EMA on the daily TF, which sits at $7940. As I said yesterday, this doesn't guarantee that price will go down further but it does increase the odds of it doing so. Also, I mentioned yesterday that we have either completed an ABC correction or just the first 3 waves of a 5 wave set. If it is the latter, then we should be looking for price to target daily demand between $6975-$7215 (though I could see price possibly targeting as low as $6500, since the May 17th drop across the exchanges is so different) where a bounce should take us to $7600, at least. Daily Stoch RSI is curled up at this time suggesting that we may see demand kick in on the larger TF sooner rather than later, and the daily pivot remains just below price at $7635. This does not mean that we can't see price fall further before that happens. In the local TR, I don't like the lack of demand participation so far. We are just seeing low quality demand. The participation, at this time, appears to be on the supply side. That doesn't mean that we can't see things change as the TR continues developing, but currently this suggests that we could see price falling further as mentioned above. If price breaks through the descending blue resistance with volume, then higher prices could be in the cards. However, as long as that resistance holds price in check I am leaning toward further downside at this time. This is a very preliminary look at the TR, so keep in mind that things can, and often do, change as it develops. If we start seeing demand building greater than what it has been, and especially if that's coupled with supply continuing to drop, there is a likelihood that we can see price continue higher as outlined yesterday. But we absolutely need to see demand participation increase (i.e. larger demand volume). The red horizontal line is the weekly/monthly pivot, so getting back above it would be bullish. Doing so would also take price above the descending channel's EQ, which is also bullish. The purple dashed line is the 2018 TR's EQ. Again, price moving above that level is bullish. As we can see, the 30 minute pivot sits up around $8600, so price has quite a distance to go in order to reach it. But, movement above it is bullish. Remember, price is currently above the daily pivot which is bullish on that larger TF, but if we don't start seeing some upward movement then my expectation is a drop below it. The daily S1 pivot is at $6180 and the bottom 2018 TR support is at $5920. These are some of the guidelines that traders can use to measure how price is doing for now. Currently, the 30 minute Stoch RSI is bouncing off the bottom in oversold and is nearing a bullish cross while the RSI is slightly bearish at 44. In terms of price, we do see higher lows toward the resistance at the top of the local TR (the overhead supply keeping price in check so far). This means that we could be seeing an ascending triangle forming with a target of $8270. If price closes below the swing low of $7570.90 (dotted blue line) then the odds of falling further increase. The big picture is that even if we see price head toward the $6000s as I have been talking about as a possibility for weeks now, it should just be wave 4 which means we've got a much higher target to complete wave 5. Then we would see the larger wave 2 retracement. Alts seem to be holding pretty well so far and there are opportunities out there for those not interested in trading BTC at these levels. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 4H charts (6/5/2019)Good morning, traders. In yesterday's update, I outlined what I was watching for and what I wanted to see for price to continue higher. The daily candle did not close as bullishly as I had hoped it would, however the pivot held and we saw a strong rebound off the 4H S2 pivot. Usually, if the move is corrective and not a reversal, we expect to see price bouncing somewhere between the S1 and S2 pivot (usually closer to the latter) like it did. Additionally, price has printed what appears to be a well-defined ABC pattern which is corrective. We don't know for sure if it's an ABC or just the first 3 waves of a set, but the fact that the 3rd or C wave did not exceed the 1.618% extension of the first wave means that the ABC is a possibility. We could also see a complex correction as described below. If it is a simple ABC corrective set, then we should expect price to continue heading toward new 2019 highs. When it comes to the daily, I would like to see today's candle close above the 21 EMA. If it does, then that means that the 21 EMA held as support because yesterday's and today's candle spread would be on that 21 EMA. If it closes below it then that opens the door to more possible downside, but doesn't guarantee it. Beyond that, we need to see price continue above the 4H pivot at $8600. If it fails to get above this point, then it's possible that we are seeing a larger, complex correction and we should be able to note an ABC pattern from the bounce. This would have me looking for support around the $6900-$7000 level. The 4H RSI breaching its red descending resistance should be a good indication of price solidly moving up at that time. The 4H Coinbase chart shows the expected movement according to EW, the pitchfork, and the pivots. That doesn't mean that price will move exactly as shown. This is especially important to remember on the pullbacks because if demand is significantly more than the supply, we won't see the deeper usual retracements that we expect. The 4H Bitstamp chart shows another way of looking at this area. As I have been mentioning, price has been moving sideways for the past 3 weeks. I have labeled this TR as reaccumulation for now however, depending on just how far the final thrust goes, it may be a form of distribution. If it is the latter, then I think price will likely find a top closer to the ~$10,500/$10,600 level. Because of the parabolic advance, though, I'm still thinking we need to see a blow-off top, which would likely have price reaching the box on the Coinbase chart at least. This would result in a hypodermic distribution, similar in structure at the top to what we saw at the end of 2017. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 1D chart (6/4/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday's drop has, again, scared retail into immediate bearishness. Remember, emotions will most often lose you money in the market. So should you be worried? I mentioned yesterday that "A breakdown below the $7900 demand zone should indicate that price will, instead, continue correcting toward the $6000 level." Just so we are clear, when I say a breakdown I mean a larger TF candle close below the level mentioned. In this case, I would be looking for a daily close below $7900. At this time, the daily candle is looking quite bullish as it is printing a hammer with a long lower wick just above the daily pivot/EQ of the recent demand zone. Additionally, we see the 21 EMA and higher volume node providing support to the candle body. If the daily closes like this or better, I see little reason to believe that price won't head up once more. Again, the EW count is tricky as there are multiple ways to view it, but taking everything else into consideration, it seems unfinished, hence my labels as they currently sit. The grey zones are supply and demand while the red and green horizontal lines are support levels. It still bothers me, if this count is correct, that wave 4 is so significantly asymmetrical to wave 2 in regards to the wave's length of time to develop. However, the shorter TF wave count seems to be working out so far with the recent drop finding support between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of what may potentially be the first subwave of the next wave set up. I have also outlined what I was referring to yesterday when I said that the current price action may be following the pattern we saw as price pushed above the $6K level. As we can see, the last time price dipped below the 21 EMA it was near the end of that lower green box with price ultimately finding support on the EMA before pushing up. RSI and Stoch RSI are very similar as well. Finally, that prior drop through the EMA occured at the outer edge of the pitchfork and this one is happening at the median of the pitchfork. In either case, it is an area of pirchfork significance. As I continue to warn traders, none of this guarantees upward momentum from here. It does, however, provide a strong opposing narrative to the kneejerk emotional bearishness that springs up across social media immediately following any movement down. If price loses pivot support, I will be watching for a bounce off the red line, but really expecting price to target the next HVN at $6400-$6600 with a possible wick near the S1 pivot at $6175. Further fallling will have me watching the $5300 level for support. Don't forget, the $8000 level is the monthly pivot so all price really has been doing between $7600 and $9100 is consolidating around that pivot. In that case, maybe the EW count is similar to what I have and this sideways consolidation for almost 3 weeks is wave 4 which would then be much more symmetrical to wave 2. Until we get definitiveness of movement (i.e. movement above the swing high around $9100 or below the swing low around $6600 on this Coinbase chart) nobody knows for sure what is going on and the best we can do is prepare either way while looking for clues as price moves. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 1D/1H charts (6/3/2019)Good morning traders. Over the weekend, price hit my immediate target of $8700 and then a bit more, topping out at $8833. After the short correction overnight, which saw price retest the blue TR support, it looks like price is headed higher once more. At this time, I am looking for price to target the 1H R1 pivot at $9220 as it prints the JAC and then an SOS. We should then generally expect price to retrace toward the TR to print the BUEC/LPS, but I wouldn't expect it to drop below the pivot/red line. The ensuing leg up should take price to the daily R1 pivot at $10,000. However, I expect price to ultimately hit $10,500/$10,600 at least (potentially up to ~$12,900 which is the weekly R1 pivot), if it does make it to $10,000. We have to see what price action and volume look like as it gets to that point. Looking at the bigger picture, this morning's swing low bounced just above the dashed purple line which is the EQ of the large 2018 TR. Price has also, so far, remained in the top half of the large ascending channel. More recently, this morning's swing low printed the bottom of what appears to be a local ascending channel. Getting above the pivot puts price above that short ascending channel's EQ, as well as the blue TR's EQ and the red S/R flip. The 1H RSI and Stoch RSI resets lend support to this possible upward trajectory toward the 1H R1 pivot. A breakdown below the $7900 demand zone should indicate that price will, instead, continue correcting toward the $6000 level. The daily chart reminds us that price is ranging between demand and supply zones. The May 30th dip bounced off the demand zone's EQ and the current daily candle is possibly printing a higher low by bouncing off the top of the demand zone/black TR resistance/2018 TR EQ. The 3D chart shows price consolidating ON TOP of the 2018 TR EQ over the past 9 days which would seem to be more bullish than bearish and could lead to a significant pop. The weekly candle is a bit more indecisive, printing what appears to be a northern doji with price closing the week a mere $1 above where it opened. While often touted as a bearish reversal pattern by amateur traders, the reality is that the breakout direction is random at best (about 50/50), so traders should consider it a pause. The fact that it occurred on top of a demand zone seems to suggest upward price continuation. Of course there are no guarantees and all we can do is look at the data and attempt to extract a higher probability course of action. Overall weekly demand volume has also continued to rise during this, what I believe is, wave 3. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2