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BTCUSD 1H chart (6/19/2019)Good morning, traders. Price dropped a bit lower yesterday, as I noted in Discord was a possibility as the day played out, but the TR remains reaccumulation with uprise since we still have higher lows consolidating toward the resistance at the top of the TR. This means that I really don't have anything to add on the lower TF analysis. So, I want to remind you that I have been watching this larger pattern at $9000 play out similarly to the pattern at $5000. Currently, price is printing the smaller consolidation on top of the larger consolidation as it did previously. If price continues to follow the pattern, then we can expect a move to ~$9,700, rejection and retracement toward ~$9100, followed by a push through $10,000. Obviously this is a big "if" and traders should continue to adhere to strict risk management. We also have to remember that patterns follow along generally, not exactly. The 4H RSI is bullish at 53.5 and is printing a descending channel. It is nearing a breakout of the channel resistance. Stoch RSI is still oversold. We can see how the price action, RSI, and Stoch RSI align between the two patterns. The only thing we don't know for sure is how high price will push if the pattern continues playing out. These past few weeks, I have given traders multiple targets to watch based on patterns, pivots, parabolic blow off top, and fib levels. However, I still believe the most important target is the 2018 descending wedge target of ~$14,500. With that in mind, if we see a strong vertical push occur, then we usually expect price to top out around the 4H R5 pivot (could go a bit higher). The short horizontal red lines denote the R5 pivots at the previous pushes and we can see that is exactly what happened. Currently, that would mean that we could expect price to top just above the current R5 pivot of $13,830. As such, the descending wedge target is not out of the picture. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
1
XBTUSD 1H/BTCUSD 1M charts (6/18/2019)Good morning, traders. There's not a whole lot to say right now. Price has continued its consolidation into today, printing higher lows toward the resistance around $9400. A close above the TR's resistance should provide us with a minimum target of the $10,050 level on this 1H Bitmex chart. I am watching for RSI to close above its resistance to signal the likely beginning of the next push up. Zooming out to the larger monthly picture, we can see previous and current price action without all the noise. If we anchor the Schiff Pitchfork at the previous correction's low, the ATH, and then the 2018 low, we can see that price is following along perfectly. Having pushed up through the bottom of the monthly pivot, and now sitting on top of it, we should expect price to move sideways for a bit, at worst, with the R1 and R2 pivots being the next targets. I have left the historical pivots turned on so that traders can understand how price travels between them. As we can see, the idea that price will return to the $6000s is not supported based on previous movement since price has closed above the pivot. However, my target of the R2 pivot is clearly quite likely. That being said, past performance is never a guarantee of future performance, so risk management remains key. Traders should note that the projected descending wedge target and R1 pivot are located between the pitchfork's median and the 25% tine. When it comes to the pitchfork, as you can see, price usually targets the next tine higher, pulls back, and then targets the next one higher than that. Using the pitchfork in conjunction with the pivots on this monthly TF will likely produce much better results for retail traders over the next year than 15 minute charts. Unfortunately, most retail traders will choose the latter because they don't have patience but they have an over-abundance of emotion. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 1D chart (6/17/2019)Good morning, traders. As I warned on Friday, "...what appears to be a wedge, many times, is nothing more than price grinding toward channel resistance and when it pops through it usually makes quite the move." After this weekend, price now sits ~$1000 higher while printing a large ~$1350 engulfing candle. Is it a bullish engulfing candle? I don't believe it fits the definition since there wasn't a downtrend, rather just a 1 period drop followed by that candle. That said, it's still bullish and it makes more sense for traders to look for higher highs than lower highs at this time. In terms of the VPVR, we can see that price is clearly above the highest volume nodes which generally means that it's easier for price to move up higher than it is to drop lower. The relevant weekly/monthly pivots are labeled in purple, and they are probably the most useful targets of all right now. Those of you that have been following me for a while know that I've had issues with potential Elliott Wave counts. I've provided a few different possible counts, but have always lamented that I cannot drop a line from the bottom of wave 2 to the possible wave 4 bottom. There has also been the confusion amongst EW traders about whether we are in the 3rd or 5th wave (although it seems that most have delegated price to the 5th wave at this time). But what if this is the count? What if wave 3 doesn't begin until the break through $4000? If so, then all of the sudden the count becomes much easier with the consolidation under $5000 being subwave 2 of wave 3 and the hard drop in May being subwave 4 of wave 3. That would most likely have us in subwave 5 of wave 3 right now. Using the large ascending channel as a guide for wave 4, based on wave 2, then that would give us a wave 3 target of the ascending channel's EQ just above the daily R2 pivot and the 2018 TR's resistance, most likely near the monthly R1 pivot which would occur by the end of the month. We would then see price retrace for about 2-3 weeks during July as it prints wave 4, followed by a large move up for wave 5. Where would wave 5 target? Based on the channel, it seems most likely that we would see it target the top of the ascending channel around the R2 pivot/4.618 extension ($22,000-$24300). Again, for those of you who have been following me, these targets aren't surprising. It is the same thing I have been mentioning for months now, except we have a lot more data to support such a move. This would also mean that $10,000-$12,000 likely becomes the floor for wave 2 before the next push up. For those of you still interested in the parabola, this count gives us the first base at subwave 2 of wave 3, second base at subwave 4 of wave 3, and third base at wave 4. Remember, what I've said about parabolic movement off the 3rd base -- it generally provides 100%+ in movement which means we should expect the blow off top around ~$20,000 or more. Finally, don't forget, the expectation is for retail to finally start FOMOing in as price moves through $10,000, and especially when it moves through the top of the 2018 TR just under $12,000. I am going to take a look at LTCUSD, XRPUSD, and ETHUSD during this morning's video, as well as a deeper look at what I am discussing here, so be sure to check in at the YouTube link below. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
10
BTCUSD 6H chart (6/14/2019)Good morning, traders. We've made it to Friday once more but those of us in the U.S. awoke to news that Binance will suspend trading of U.S.-based customers in 90 days (September 12th). This is expected since Binance is actually opening a U.S. exchange. In doing so, there are certain U.S. regulations that they must adhere to which requires them to do what they can to restrict U.S. customers from using their main exchange. By doing this, they can come into compliance with the laws and make sure their U.S. launch is smooth and unencumbered. With U.S. customers making up a paltry 15% of Binance's volume, I don't see this having much effect on alts. If it does, it will be reactionary and temporary from emotional retail traders who imagine the worst. We don't have a launch date for the U.S. exchange yet, however U.S. customers will either VPN to the main Binance exchange (as long as they aren't KYC-processed yet) after September 12th, or they will trade on one of the U.S.-based exchanges like Bittrex, Poloniex, Coinbase, Gemini (don't do this), or Kraken. The benefit of this is increased liquidity at these exchanges and, with Bittrex in particular, I believe we may see a new season for old-school alts. So what's going on with Bitcoin today? Same old story, different day. Just a slow grind upward within a large, month-old TR for now. However, there are some general things that I want to remind you of: 1) price has exited through the large descending black channel's resistance which provides a target of ~$9050, 2) price is consolidating just above the red TR with a target of ~$8850, 3) price is possibly printing an ascending wedge with a target of $7650-$7750 depending on when price drops through wedge support. In terms of the wedge, a break through its resistance, instead, has a target between $8950 and $9050 depending on when it does so. The 4H Stoch RSI has remained within overbought for a while now and RSI is nearing overbought (as it hovers near its ascending channel resistance). If we don't see a strong push up toward $9000 sooner rather than later, it seems most likely that the wedge will play out. We can see the R1 pivot at ~$8430, as well as the top of the blue month-old TR just below that at $8352. Price topping out anywhere between its current level and the R1 pivot makes sense and allows it to retrace before pushing higher. A retrace is likely looking at $7850-$7960 before heading back up. I am a little hesitant about the lower end of that range, though, since it takes price below the pivot and since we've already pushed up through the pivot the expectation should be continued upward momentum. As such, if the wedge plays out then we might expect to see price reach $8500-$8550 before falling through wedge support thereby providing a retracement range that is above the pivot. I would like to see price remain above the red TR's EQ as that would show strong demand. A final word on ascending wedges: Often retail traders want to see a wedge because, to them, it makes it easier to justify their fear of price reversing as it grinds up slowly. Remember, the longer it takes price to move appreciably the more time a trader has to consider and reconsider their position, often leading them to change their minds and jump in and out. So what appears to be a wedge, many times, is nothing more than price grinding toward channel resistance and when it pops through it usually makes quite the move. During this morning's video update (link below) I will take a look at some possible Elliott Wave counts and what I think may be going on from that perspective. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 1D chart (6/13/2019)Good morning, traders. After yesterday's $300 pop, price has been retracing as expected. At this point, it appears that price should be about ready to start moving up again as it has bounced around the $8050 level which was the general resistance area prior to the pop. However, we are going to zoom out to the daily once more and take a look at the Coinbase chart. I've mentioned before, but will again, I do not believe this to be a head and shoulders pattern. Most other professional traders that have been around for a number of years appear to agree with me as well, not the least of which is Peter Brandt. The amateur traders, however, have been littering social media (Tradingview included) with the H&S nonsense. The green box is the weekly order block from around the first week of November 2017. I've pointed it out before and am doing so once more because I believe that price will not drop below this level. It took a terminal shakeout to get price below it last November and now that it has been done it won't be done again. Currently, price has made it back above the red line which is the monthly pivot. It is also above the 21 EMA. The dashed line just above price is the 2018 TR's EQ. We can see that the daily pivot also has held as support so far. Furthermore, the daily RSI is attempting to break through its resistance and Stoch RSI has recently left oversold. Both have a lot of room to run. All of this is bullish. Stop concentrating on the 15 minute TFs right now. Price is also at the top of the month-long TR and a break above $8388 on this chart will signal that price has moved above the TR's resistance which means all it has to do is close above the swing high at $9090 to signal further upside. The purple curve shows that price is possibly still parabolic and, if so, then we shouldn't be surprised to see price top out around $14000-$18000. But if it's going to do so, then it would be expected to do so sooner rather than later. In a parabola, the last push up is the most violent and often produes 100% growth over the pattern's 3rd base which is what appears to be printing at this time. This current consolidation area really seems no different than the previous one at $5000, which I've pointed out numerous times. The longer it plays out the more similar it becomes. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/12/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to trade sideways while printing higher lows toward the $8100 resistance on the lower TFs. It doesn't amaze me anymore that novice traders think highly bearish in spite of this development. Many of y'all are still in disbelief at this 6 month bull market. Sadly, what they fail to understand is that even a correction toward $6000 is not bearish. It's a pullback in a bull market. It's one of the most bullish things that can happen as it gives traders the opportunity to ride the next wave up. The biggest thing that novice traders have to overcome is their emotion and they can start by choosing to use non-emotional words. The higher lows on the lower TFs don't guarantee that price will go up, but they should at least give traders pause when being so bearish. The higher TFs are showing higher lows and higher highs, however price has been trading sideways for a month now while printing a higher high and currently a possible higher low. The daily shows price consolidating against resistance. A couple of days ago price left the descending channel it had been in for two weeks prior. It then retested channel resistance as support yesterday and since then has been printing higher lows and highs. I have two support lines noted on the 1H RSI and 1H Stoch RSI is consolidating just under overbought. The higher lows toward resistance has me thinking that we should see a good pop upward through that resistance. As a reminder, the red line is the monthly pivot, the dashed purple line is the 2018 TR EQ, and the horizontal black line around $8400 is the top of the TR that price has been printing for about a month now. Price is also currently back above the 1H pivot. There are a couple of targets to watch at this time based on channels and TRs. The red target is based on the large descending channel and targets that fresh supply in the blue zone from the recent swing high. The blue target is based on the blue TR and targets the 2018 TR EQ. The purple target is one that traders should also keep an eye on. There is the possibility that price has printed a triple bottom as noted in purple. If price can close above that swing high at $8115, then we could see price targeting ~$8800 and that gets it pretty close to the red channel target at ~$8970. If price falls further, then I will continue watching the same support levels that I have been mentioning for a while now including the noted demand zones on this chart. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSDT/BTCUSD 4H/15 min charts (6/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Price has been consolidating/retracing within the expected area mentioned yesterday and looks ready to head higher up now. Once price exits through the descending broadening wedge's resistance, it will be back above the 4H pivot which is bullish. We should then see price targeting ~$8480 based on the height of the flagpole leading up to the wedge. This targeted level also happens to be the 4H R1 pivot, but may change depending on how long it takes price to rise through the wedge's resistance. There is also a slightly lower target of ~$8297 based on the height of the widest part of the wedge. Like the flagpole target, this could change depending on how long it takes price to exit the wedge. Shorter-term, price printed a descending channel at the bottom of the descending broadening wedge as it bounced off the 61.8% retracement of the recent move up. Having pushed through the channel's resistance, price has a projected target of ~$7880 based on the height of that local channel. This move down over the past 24 hours has done nothing more, so far, than retest the previous descending channel's resistance as support. As such, price still has a target of ~$8973 based on the height of that channel as well. On the 15 minute chart, I would watch for RSI to breach the descending resistance to indicate upward price progression. The 4H chart shows RSI printing an ascending channel. If RSI happens to fall through the channel support, it is likely we will have to re-evaluate the expected price movement. As long as it remains within the channel, however, price should continue on the path outlined above. The 1H chart is printing bullish divergence in RSI and Stoch RSI is bottomed out in oversold and printing a bullish cross. The 15 minute Stoch RSI is looking taxed at the moment, so we may see price print a small TR as it resets if we don't see it pop up soon. If price, for some reason, does not head up from this level and instead moves down, then I expect the lower blue demand zone to provide the bounce. Ultimately, my expectation remains the same -- that price will continue to climb within the large purple ascending channel on the 4H chart that price has printed since it started the 3rd wave up from the $3300 level. As such, we can see that there is the possibility that price could continue sideways for a bit longer as well without violating channel support. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD/BTCUSDT 1H and 3D charts (6/10/2019)Good morning, traders. The price swings as of late have been great for shorter-term traders, but are causing havoc on investors or those holding for longer periods because they don't know what they're doing. So they allow the noise (swings) to cause them stress and then emotionally sell out of one losing position and into another even though they supposedly bought for a longer term hold. As a result, most retail traders right now are trading scared, moving from one trade to the next and losing money in the process. They continue to jump into positions almost immediately after they exit another in order to "make up" their losses. If this sounds like you, please stop. Step back and take some time away from the market to get your emotions under control. You will lose a lot more money jumping around like that, chasing price, than you will by stepping back and relaxing. The reality is that all that's happened is that price has continued moving sideways in a TR. That's it. Accept your current losses rather than trying to revenge trade your way back into profit. My 4H chart from June 5th () remains the most relevant at this time. While the shortest term EW count has become invalidated, the larger count remains valid for now. More importantly, the TR chart on the right side shows price exiting through the descending channel's resistance. This now projects a channel target of $8960. The expectation, after the recent $400 rise, is to see consolidation above this local resistance before the next push up. As it's been, the red horizontal line marks the weekly/monthly pivot which price has been consolidating around as it prints the larger TR. I remain cautious at this time. Until price exits the TR, we don't know for sure which way it is going. All this chop within the TR is why novice traders end up losing their money. The trends are easy, it's when you attempt to trade smaller TF sideways movement that you lose your capital. The weekly didn't close well. We had a long-legged doji two weeks ago followed by a large bearish candle last week. Most traders consider this an indication that price is headed down, and many times it is. I have the 3D Binance BTCUSD chart attached for you to consider. The weekly 21 EMA is around $6100/$6150, so a trip lower would have me watching that level for the reversal if the two purple lines don't support price. The weekly/monthly R1 pivot remains at ~$12900, so a trip higher would have me watching that level as a target. The large descending wedge target is at ~$14500, which is the next target higher I am keeping an eye on. It still seems to me that the order block created the first week of November 2017 (highlighted in grey) is the dominant level. This is where price was supported throughout most of 2018 until the terminal shakeout in November and is the level that price is currently sitting above. If this is wave 4 printing right now, then the black TR in the Binance chart to the left states that we should see price testing the TR's resistance next at around $9000, if not a bit higher. If it does, then we usually expect price to return toward the TR's EQ at around ~$8200 or, if there is still too much supply, we will potentially see price targeting the bottom of the TR, or just below it (watch for a wick to the 3D 21 EMA to create a Spring). As mentioned last week, if this is wave 4 printing, then we should also be watching for a pennant to print in this area on the larger TF instead of price just heading up and out. Since wave 2 was 1.5 months in duration, wave 4 should be expected to play out over a month or so. We still have a couple of more weeks before price heads higher in that scenario. Short term, we should see price targeting the top of the ascending channel around $8400/$8450. However, be wary of the $8150/8250 level. If price is unable to move past that right now, then it will likely have to retrace toward $7950/$8000 before trying once more. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
4
BTCUSD 1H chart (6/7/2019) BULLISHGood morning, traders. I mentioned that I was cautious yesterday pending the outcome of the local TR. I said that we needed to see demand volume increasing, especially as price pushed through the descending blue resistance to signal a likely reversal, and we did. Price attempted to print a Spring on Bitstamp, but was not able to do so (price remained above the bottom of the TR support). Bitfinex actually saw price print the Spring. In both cases, the supply volume was lower when compared to the supply volume coming into the TR. This lower supply participation in this area was a great signal to initiate a long. Confirming the reversal is the expanding demand volume and growing candle spread as price has risen from that point. As a result, price has printed an SOS, is currently retesting the TR resistance as support, and will be looking for the $8175/$8200 level I believe. This will put price right into that overhead supply and at the descending channel resistance where we should look for a rejection and pullback before price pushes through the descending channel resistance. Based on the height of the channel, we should expect price to target the $9300 level. If we see price getting to that point, then I am inclined to believe that it will only be subwave 1 of subwave 3 of wave 5. Remember, I am operating under the assumption that the recent drop was a subwave 2 simple ABC correction. Taking a look at price action another way, price is currently confirming the double bottom that it printed as it tests the peak of that pattern as support. The target based on the height of the double bottom is $8413 on Bitstamp. This necessarily will push price through the descending channel resistance which sets up the ~$9300 target mentioned earlier. As we can see, price is also printing a flag with a target of the ~$8200 area, also mentioned above, based on the height of the flagpole. The red line that price was rejected at a few hours ago before retesting resistance as support is the weekly/monthly pivot. In terms of the 1H pivots, we can see that the immediate targets are at the S1 pivot with the larger channel target at the R1 pivot. Finally, the daily 21 EMA is currently sitting just overhead at $7940. Price continuing to head above that EMA, the monthly pivot, and the 1H pivot is all bullish. Therefore, while nothing is ever guaranteed in the charts, things look a lot more bullish than bearish at this time. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 30 minute chart (6/6/2019)Good morning, traders. I am more cautious at this time than what I have been. Price has failed to get back above the 21 EMA on the daily TF, which sits at $7940. As I said yesterday, this doesn't guarantee that price will go down further but it does increase the odds of it doing so. Also, I mentioned yesterday that we have either completed an ABC correction or just the first 3 waves of a 5 wave set. If it is the latter, then we should be looking for price to target daily demand between $6975-$7215 (though I could see price possibly targeting as low as $6500, since the May 17th drop across the exchanges is so different) where a bounce should take us to $7600, at least. Daily Stoch RSI is curled up at this time suggesting that we may see demand kick in on the larger TF sooner rather than later, and the daily pivot remains just below price at $7635. This does not mean that we can't see price fall further before that happens. In the local TR, I don't like the lack of demand participation so far. We are just seeing low quality demand. The participation, at this time, appears to be on the supply side. That doesn't mean that we can't see things change as the TR continues developing, but currently this suggests that we could see price falling further as mentioned above. If price breaks through the descending blue resistance with volume, then higher prices could be in the cards. However, as long as that resistance holds price in check I am leaning toward further downside at this time. This is a very preliminary look at the TR, so keep in mind that things can, and often do, change as it develops. If we start seeing demand building greater than what it has been, and especially if that's coupled with supply continuing to drop, there is a likelihood that we can see price continue higher as outlined yesterday. But we absolutely need to see demand participation increase (i.e. larger demand volume). The red horizontal line is the weekly/monthly pivot, so getting back above it would be bullish. Doing so would also take price above the descending channel's EQ, which is also bullish. The purple dashed line is the 2018 TR's EQ. Again, price moving above that level is bullish. As we can see, the 30 minute pivot sits up around $8600, so price has quite a distance to go in order to reach it. But, movement above it is bullish. Remember, price is currently above the daily pivot which is bullish on that larger TF, but if we don't start seeing some upward movement then my expectation is a drop below it. The daily S1 pivot is at $6180 and the bottom 2018 TR support is at $5920. These are some of the guidelines that traders can use to measure how price is doing for now. Currently, the 30 minute Stoch RSI is bouncing off the bottom in oversold and is nearing a bullish cross while the RSI is slightly bearish at 44. In terms of price, we do see higher lows toward the resistance at the top of the local TR (the overhead supply keeping price in check so far). This means that we could be seeing an ascending triangle forming with a target of $8270. If price closes below the swing low of $7570.90 (dotted blue line) then the odds of falling further increase. The big picture is that even if we see price head toward the $6000s as I have been talking about as a possibility for weeks now, it should just be wave 4 which means we've got a much higher target to complete wave 5. Then we would see the larger wave 2 retracement. Alts seem to be holding pretty well so far and there are opportunities out there for those not interested in trading BTC at these levels. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 4H charts (6/5/2019)Good morning, traders. In yesterday's update, I outlined what I was watching for and what I wanted to see for price to continue higher. The daily candle did not close as bullishly as I had hoped it would, however the pivot held and we saw a strong rebound off the 4H S2 pivot. Usually, if the move is corrective and not a reversal, we expect to see price bouncing somewhere between the S1 and S2 pivot (usually closer to the latter) like it did. Additionally, price has printed what appears to be a well-defined ABC pattern which is corrective. We don't know for sure if it's an ABC or just the first 3 waves of a set, but the fact that the 3rd or C wave did not exceed the 1.618% extension of the first wave means that the ABC is a possibility. We could also see a complex correction as described below. If it is a simple ABC corrective set, then we should expect price to continue heading toward new 2019 highs. When it comes to the daily, I would like to see today's candle close above the 21 EMA. If it does, then that means that the 21 EMA held as support because yesterday's and today's candle spread would be on that 21 EMA. If it closes below it then that opens the door to more possible downside, but doesn't guarantee it. Beyond that, we need to see price continue above the 4H pivot at $8600. If it fails to get above this point, then it's possible that we are seeing a larger, complex correction and we should be able to note an ABC pattern from the bounce. This would have me looking for support around the $6900-$7000 level. The 4H RSI breaching its red descending resistance should be a good indication of price solidly moving up at that time. The 4H Coinbase chart shows the expected movement according to EW, the pitchfork, and the pivots. That doesn't mean that price will move exactly as shown. This is especially important to remember on the pullbacks because if demand is significantly more than the supply, we won't see the deeper usual retracements that we expect. The 4H Bitstamp chart shows another way of looking at this area. As I have been mentioning, price has been moving sideways for the past 3 weeks. I have labeled this TR as reaccumulation for now however, depending on just how far the final thrust goes, it may be a form of distribution. If it is the latter, then I think price will likely find a top closer to the ~$10,500/$10,600 level. Because of the parabolic advance, though, I'm still thinking we need to see a blow-off top, which would likely have price reaching the box on the Coinbase chart at least. This would result in a hypodermic distribution, similar in structure at the top to what we saw at the end of 2017. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 1D chart (6/4/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday's drop has, again, scared retail into immediate bearishness. Remember, emotions will most often lose you money in the market. So should you be worried? I mentioned yesterday that "A breakdown below the $7900 demand zone should indicate that price will, instead, continue correcting toward the $6000 level." Just so we are clear, when I say a breakdown I mean a larger TF candle close below the level mentioned. In this case, I would be looking for a daily close below $7900. At this time, the daily candle is looking quite bullish as it is printing a hammer with a long lower wick just above the daily pivot/EQ of the recent demand zone. Additionally, we see the 21 EMA and higher volume node providing support to the candle body. If the daily closes like this or better, I see little reason to believe that price won't head up once more. Again, the EW count is tricky as there are multiple ways to view it, but taking everything else into consideration, it seems unfinished, hence my labels as they currently sit. The grey zones are supply and demand while the red and green horizontal lines are support levels. It still bothers me, if this count is correct, that wave 4 is so significantly asymmetrical to wave 2 in regards to the wave's length of time to develop. However, the shorter TF wave count seems to be working out so far with the recent drop finding support between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of what may potentially be the first subwave of the next wave set up. I have also outlined what I was referring to yesterday when I said that the current price action may be following the pattern we saw as price pushed above the $6K level. As we can see, the last time price dipped below the 21 EMA it was near the end of that lower green box with price ultimately finding support on the EMA before pushing up. RSI and Stoch RSI are very similar as well. Finally, that prior drop through the EMA occured at the outer edge of the pitchfork and this one is happening at the median of the pitchfork. In either case, it is an area of pirchfork significance. As I continue to warn traders, none of this guarantees upward momentum from here. It does, however, provide a strong opposing narrative to the kneejerk emotional bearishness that springs up across social media immediately following any movement down. If price loses pivot support, I will be watching for a bounce off the red line, but really expecting price to target the next HVN at $6400-$6600 with a possible wick near the S1 pivot at $6175. Further fallling will have me watching the $5300 level for support. Don't forget, the $8000 level is the monthly pivot so all price really has been doing between $7600 and $9100 is consolidating around that pivot. In that case, maybe the EW count is similar to what I have and this sideways consolidation for almost 3 weeks is wave 4 which would then be much more symmetrical to wave 2. Until we get definitiveness of movement (i.e. movement above the swing high around $9100 or below the swing low around $6600 on this Coinbase chart) nobody knows for sure what is going on and the best we can do is prepare either way while looking for clues as price moves. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 1D/1H charts (6/3/2019)Good morning traders. Over the weekend, price hit my immediate target of $8700 and then a bit more, topping out at $8833. After the short correction overnight, which saw price retest the blue TR support, it looks like price is headed higher once more. At this time, I am looking for price to target the 1H R1 pivot at $9220 as it prints the JAC and then an SOS. We should then generally expect price to retrace toward the TR to print the BUEC/LPS, but I wouldn't expect it to drop below the pivot/red line. The ensuing leg up should take price to the daily R1 pivot at $10,000. However, I expect price to ultimately hit $10,500/$10,600 at least (potentially up to ~$12,900 which is the weekly R1 pivot), if it does make it to $10,000. We have to see what price action and volume look like as it gets to that point. Looking at the bigger picture, this morning's swing low bounced just above the dashed purple line which is the EQ of the large 2018 TR. Price has also, so far, remained in the top half of the large ascending channel. More recently, this morning's swing low printed the bottom of what appears to be a local ascending channel. Getting above the pivot puts price above that short ascending channel's EQ, as well as the blue TR's EQ and the red S/R flip. The 1H RSI and Stoch RSI resets lend support to this possible upward trajectory toward the 1H R1 pivot. A breakdown below the $7900 demand zone should indicate that price will, instead, continue correcting toward the $6000 level. The daily chart reminds us that price is ranging between demand and supply zones. The May 30th dip bounced off the demand zone's EQ and the current daily candle is possibly printing a higher low by bouncing off the top of the demand zone/black TR resistance/2018 TR EQ. The 3D chart shows price consolidating ON TOP of the 2018 TR EQ over the past 9 days which would seem to be more bullish than bearish and could lead to a significant pop. The weekly candle is a bit more indecisive, printing what appears to be a northern doji with price closing the week a mere $1 above where it opened. While often touted as a bearish reversal pattern by amateur traders, the reality is that the breakout direction is random at best (about 50/50), so traders should consider it a pause. The fact that it occurred on top of a demand zone seems to suggest upward price continuation. Of course there are no guarantees and all we can do is look at the data and attempt to extract a higher probability course of action. Overall weekly demand volume has also continued to rise during this, what I believe is, wave 3. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H chart (5/31/2019)Good morning traders. Price had a minor setback yesterday. After popping up $360 to a high of $9096.79, just $100 shy of the immediate 4H R1 pivot target, price dropped down and bounced off $8000. However, it did hit the TR target (height of the TR added to the point of breakout) and then some. This is exactly why I have been warning traders to consider not trading in this area. The lack of liquidity as a result of cyclical accumulation that occurred last year, as well as price nearing the end of its bullish run, makes volatility like this a strong reality and most retail traders don't have a clue how to trade it. I have talked time and again about locking in shorter term profits if a trader insists on entering and trading this range. Lord knows I am constantly preaching risk management. Yet, even with all of this, I still get the idiotic comments about "newbs are rekt because of you." Make sure you understand, if you are getting rekt in a financial market it is absolutely nobody else's fault but your own unless they are trading for you. Furthermore, if you choose to ignore the warnings about market conditions in this area and risk management that I have provided, as mentioned above, then you truly have no leg to stand on. I am never rude, but I am direct and trading requires that you take responsibility for your actions (it's part of being an adult). It's absolutely ridiculous that I need to speak to adults about taking responsibility for their own actions. Consider this your reality check. So, now that I've gotten that out of the way... In the grand scheme of things, in spite of the whole of cryptotwitter turning mega bearish yesterday, all that really happened was that price returned to previous resistance and tested it as support while bouncing out of the demand zone in blue as the daily bearish divergence I mentioned was printing played out. Furthermore, we can see that it took supply more effort and produced less result to get there than the large demand candle leaving the blue zone on May 26th. Large, sudden drops like that are often initiated by professional traders attempting to scare retail into selling them their assets. Guess what? It worked. Nothing that has happened gives me reason to believe we will be dropping below $8000 at this time. Now that can change as new information comes in (i.e. price action and volume changes) but it seems more likely than not that price will return to the previous swing high and continue its trek toward $10,000. Interestingly, you may remember that I spoke recently about a possible push to $10,000 followed by a sudden drop toward $8500/$9000 and then a push through the $10,000 level -- basically, what we just saw happen yesterday. It is possible that this grab for liquidity and scooping up of retail's weakly-held assets was that move, just $1000 lower. For now, my immediate target is $8700. This will bring price right back to midrange of the shorter TF blue TR that price fell out of yesterday. Reclaiming that level will have price back above the 21 EMA and should have it targeting the top of the TR at $8939, followed by the swing high at $9096, and then the higher targets through $10,000 that I have mentioned previously. The 4H RSI is slightly bearish at 45, but is curled up suggesting increased demand momentum. The 4H Stoch RSI has recently bounced off the bottom and crossed bullishly while still in oversold. This suggests that demand strength is just starting to build which should lead to the higher prices mentioned above. Contrary to what cryptotwitter says, this type of analysis doesn't make me a permabull, rather it is just a reading of the market. I reitterate, what happened yesterday was just a blip in the slightly larger picture. However, most retail traders will feel differently because they are not looking at the bigger picture, they aren't practicing intelligent risk management, and they have little-to-no understanding of what's even going on in the market. The market is not bearish and a correction in a bull market is not bearish. The sooner you can learn to leave the words "bull" and "bear" out of your thoughts and usage, the sooner you can become less emotional in the market. The use of emotional language necessarily leads to increasing emotional response. Trading is a psychological game of composure and those with the least emotional attachment to it are the ones most well-positioned to win at the end. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
9
BTCUSD 4H chart (5/30/2019)Good morning traders. While the rest of cryptotwitter is freaking out and yelling that the sky is falling, you're paying attention to what's really going on, right? The 4H chart shows that price printed a Spring and a Test recently within the red descending, broadening wedge. This pattern took price just beyond the original channel that I had pointed out, which is fine. The 4H 21 EMA continues to support price as the latter prints higher lows toward the resistance at $8770. The ascending wedge that has resulted at the end of the descending broadening wedge is expected to result in a pop toward the R1 pivot at least. That would take price to the $9200 level. This target aligns with the local TR target. The flagpole leading up to this flag continues to have a target of $9750/$9800 which gets price just above the R2 pivot. As I have been mentioning, that $9800-$10,000 level is my initial conservative price top expectation, with the latter end of it being the general level of the large ascending triangle target from the two week May consolidation. If we consider that the large ascending triangle may have, in fact, been a pennant (which is where I'm leaning at this time and I outlined it in red for you), then the height of the flagpole leads to a target of $11,450 which is also just above the R4 pivot at $11,400. However, I am not ruling out a possible push higher either before a correction of this first wave set. If you've been following me, then you know that our inability to draw a parallel line from wave 2 to what I have been considering as a possibility of being wave 4, without cutting out various candles, is troubling me. More importantly, so is the fact that wave 2 was 1.5 months long while wave 4 was only a couple of days. This continues to have me considering the idea that we are only completing wave 3 at this time. So the targets discussed above would result in a wave 4 retracement of about a month, before completing wave 5. In terms of the 2018 accumulation TR, the higher target of this wave 3 would have price targeting anywhere from just under the top of the TR ($11,780 on Bitstamp) to the 2018 large descending wedge target ($14,000-$14,500) which is what we should normally expect for the JAC (Jump Across the Creek) as price prints an SOS (Show of Strength). The monthly R1 pivot is around $12,900 as well. The retracement for wave 4 would then print the BUEC/LPS (Back-Up to the Edge of the Creek/Last Point of Support) and wave 5 would print another SOS. Wave 5 could then target the monthly R2 pivot around $22,000, or even a bit higher. This would allow the larger correction afterward to remain above the $10,000 level while still retreating 50%-61.8% as we would normally expect. In all, this would give us a wave 4 correction from June-August with wave 5 possibly topping out at the end of the year, thereby fitting into our normally-expected cycle. But, remember, this is all highly speculative and is just meant to make you think beyond simple kneejerk emotional reactions. It combines Elliott Wave with Wyckoff and market cycles. But until it begins playing out, traders should remain cautious. I often hear arguments that cryptotwitter is too bullish so we have to correct. While derived from truisms, the fact is that most of cryptotwitter doesn't truly understand how to apply herd mentality to market action. So what they believe to be as "everyone is too bullish" doesn't translate into their expected movement (below $5000). Again, the bullishness can be corrected by a wave 4 retracement toward $8000 after a touch of $14,000 as well. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 1H chart (5/29/2019)Good morning traders. Supply was too dominant so we did end up seeing that dip I suggested yesterday had a slight chance of happening. Price ultimately bounced off $8421, immediately above the D1 R4 pivot. This has printed bullish divergence on the 1H RSI as shown by the red arrows. Price should be good to go to the top of the local TR around $8930 before pulling back $100-$150 and then finally heading through the TR's resistance. At this time, nothing has changed from what I wrote yesterday, except that the flag's target is a bit lower at $9750 now and the ascending blue channel target has risen just a bit. As always, the target will be dependent on when price breaks through the channel's resistance, but the longer it takes price to do so, the higher that target necessarily becomes as the channel advances. I did caution traders yesterday that there is no guarantee that price will reach that blue ascending channel target, rather price may just pop out to $9,750-$10,000 and print a bull trap before reversing. But if it does continue higher, then that target is the one I will be watching next. If price does push beyond $10,000, it will likely require a recount of the waves leading up to it from May 16th -- a shifting of the waves to the right -- which would mean we could be starting the 5th subwave of the 3rd subwave of wave 5, rather than the 5th subwave of wave 5. In the near term, we are seeing price consolidating just below the TR support, along the 21 EMA on the 1H chart. This consolidation is printing a small flag with a target at the top of the local TR, as mentioned above. The 4H Stoch RSI is crossing bullishly in oversold after bouncing off the bottom and RSI is bullish at 58.7. I continue to believe that if we get the blow off top, then price will head higher than $10,000 in order to produce the FOMO required for such a move. Again, the expectation from cryptotwitter's armchair "analysts" is a reversal at that level, so we should expect that many people will be attempting to short, what they believe to be, the top. Price continuing higher would create real FOMO and trap those shorts thereby resulting in a blow off top. As discussed yesterday, we could also just see a general distribution TR develop, but for now I'm still looking at the blow off top as the more likely event. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 1H chart (5/28/2019)Good morning traders. I am back from our Memorial Day Weekend holiday, here, in the U.S. and price has continued trending upward as suggested it was likely to do. We saw a breakout of the ascending triangle to a high of $8939 on Bitstamp, so far, just a couple of days ago. Since then price has been printing a flag which should have a target of just over $9850. We can see that the 1H Stoch RSI is in oversold and RSI is slightly bearish at 46.5. There is a very slight chance that we could see price dip down toward $8335 (1H pivot) to $8415 (1D R4 pivot) first, but I doubt it will happen. Ultimately I expect this final move up toward $10,000 before we get our much needed, much larger correction. The daily RSI should print bearish divergence to confirm the reversal. The first bit of resistance on a break through the recent swing high should be the R1 pivot at $9200. In terms of the local 1H TR, price likely just printed a Spring and should be headed up with the R1 pivot possibly providing the SOS target before some more consolidation and further upward movement. Generally, I am expecting price to hit the green box before beginning the large reversal. But will we get a blow off top or just a larger distribution TR? I have been expecting the former but am in no way sure of that at this time. That being said, most of cryptotwitter is assuming that price will reverse at $10,000, but a breakout of the blue channel may indicate a slightly higher target of ~$10,500-$10,700, based on the height of that channel. The 1H R5 pivot sits at $12,270, so I wouldn't be surprised to see price accelerating toward this area as the FOMO kicks in either. Price continuing toward this level would have the added benefit of liquidating those who short around $10,000 as well as causing FOMO as traders jump in long once more, afraid they are going to miss further upside, and then trapping them as price suddenly reverses. On the other hand, if a large TR forms around the $10,000-$11,000 area, traders should be extremely cautious and attempt to analyze the price action and volume. Again, my initial expectation would be distribution if a large TR forms. The only other thing I can really caution traders on, is to be aware of the blue channel's resistance. While most are now expecting $10,000, it is possible that price does not break the resistance and, instead, reverses from there. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
4
BTCUSD 4H chart (5/24/2019)Good morning traders. Price has been heading up as expected for another attempt at a higher high, however we still have heavy supply through $8400. As we can see, price is near the top of the HVNs. If price can get on top of these HVNs, then they should act as support. What is worth noting this time around is that the orderbooks are showing stronger nearby bids than asks for the first time. We have been watching multiple possible patterns play out for a while now and at this time I am leaning toward the descending wedge and/or ascending triangle. This latter pattern is noted with the dashed red lines. It isn't an easy 3 or 5 wave count, but in either case for those patterns I expect to see price target the TR's resistance before dropping back a bit and then pushing through. As I have continued to do this past week or two, I have noted the possible targets as price moves: pattern targets in red, daily pivots in blue, and weekly pivots in green, as well as supply zones in grey. Generally, I expect price to at least meet the TR target which, in this case, would have price reaching the EQ of the supply zone at around $10,000-$10,100. This price level seems to be the general consensus among cryptotwitter as well (or at least among those who believe price will rise a bit further), but it is most certainly not guaranteed. I remain cautious as we have not seen a blow off top, although price is moving parabolically. This means that we could actually see price push even higher than $10,000. If we get that kind of move, then traders need to be extremely cautious as price will suddenly turn and drop hard when top blows off, trapping and/or liquidating late FOMO longs. Levels of confluence among possible targets are of stronger interest to me than the targets sitting by themselves. If price is rejected at the top of the TR and then falls below the recent $7467.10 swing low, we may see this play out as a double top. Just remember that the double top pattern doesn't confirm until price closes below the swing low between the two peaks. The 4H Stoch RSI is overbought at this time and appears to be rounding down, so we may see a bit of a pullback before price continues its advance. In that case, if price intends to continue higher, then I would expect the 21 EMA currently sitting at $7850 to ultimately provide support. The daily RSI is bullish at 66 and Stoch RSI remains oversold at this time, but is curling up, suggesting that we may see this final leg up that I have been expecting. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
4
BTCUSD 1H chart (5/23/2019)Good morning traders. Good ol' volatility showing up some more yesterday has returned price to the $7400/$7500 level, depending on which exchange you are looking at. Today, I am looking at Coinbase. The big points to remember are that there are multiple patterns we could be seeing playing out on the larger TFs, which I have discussed over the past week. These include the double top (for all you bearish traders out there) which will not be confirmed until price closes below the swing low between the two peaks, ascending triangle, pennant, flag, and now this descending wedge. The reality of what's going on is that price has continued to remain above the EQ of this very large trading range, so while most retail traders are freaking out and shorting because they are sure that price is headed below $6000, I am taking a much more measured approach to price action at this time. The big tell for me, at the moment, is that the daily Stoch RSI is oversold. While it can remain oversold or overbought for extended periods, the few times it has happened in the past while daily RSI was overbought or just leaving overbought, price has continued up. The 4H Stoch RSI is also oversold. It is only these smaller TFs that are showing Stoch RSI at overbought. Price is currently attempting to exit the red descending wedge's resistance as shown with a target of $7870 based on the height of that wedge. This is within the larger black descending wedge which has a likely target of around $8600, based on the height of the wedge, depending on when price breaks through its resistance. What I don't like about the current situation is that price has dropped through the pivot. Because of the sideways action, we may be able to assume that price is just consolidating around that pivot, but we need to see it push above the pivot resistance. Rejection at the pivot would likely indicate further downside. However, as mentioned above, the large patterns that may be printing make is most probable that price would not fall to $6000 or lower at this time. The red descending channel which is holding the large descending wedge shows price back above its EQ, which is bullish and should have traders expecting a return trip to the top of the channel. Before price can do that, it must get above the 21 EMA which is currently holding it in check. As you can see, from the 1H to the daily TF, we really have no definitive direction. It is supply and demand fighting it out. This is why I have continued to caution traders against trading in this range. Support levels to watch on Coinbase are the large TR EQ at $7425, red descending channel support, S1 pivot at $7070, and large TR support at $6600. The CME Bitcoin Futures chart looks the most bullish as price pushed up through the 4H pivot, was rejected at the R1 pivot, and is now just retracing above the pivot. As far as the daily chart is concerned, price is bouncing off the R3 pivot after being rejected at the R4 pivot. Again, this is bullish. While futures volume has fallen off from its ATH on May 13th, today's volume is already almost equivalent to yesterday's and is showing demand in control first thing this morning. Follow through for the rest of the day could be quite bullish for the weekend. However, supply is showing heavy in the orderbooks around $7800, so traders beware. If price can get above $8000, the HVN should provide support once more. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
7
BTCUSD 1H chart (5/21/2019)Good morning traders. Yesterday's chart has been hidden by Tradingview because I inadvertently mentioned other social media sites that I am on. So we will be using the same chart today. Overall, price remains in the TR it began printing on May 13th. Price's current location appears to be printing a diamond. Often diamond tops result in reversals, but not always. Whichever direction price moves, traders can usually expect that the ascending resistance, or descending support, lines will keep price in check. If it does break down through support, then traders should watch for a possible pullback at the demand zone/bottom of the TR around $7600. Price continuing through that area sets up the possibility of price filling the CME gap fully. However, this does not mean that price is headed to $5000. On the contrary, my expectation would be for price to bounce off the S1 pivot and head back up while continuing to print an ascending triangle. If price drops into the lower demand zone around $7400, this would invalidate my light blue wave count but would still keep the dark blue wave 4 intact. If price breaks up, then I would expect it to be a short-liquidating push up and target the R1 pivot. Can price head higher in this scenario? Sure it can, especially because I expect that a lot of people are short in this area. With that in mind, although we usually expect price to be kept in check by the resistance line, it is possible that price could surge through that ascending channel's resistance. For now, the 1H RSI is neutral with support and resistance lines noted. A close below support or above resistance on the 1H TF should indicate that price will continue in that direction. The 21 EMA and HVN are supporting currently supporting price. Stoch RSI just bounce out of oversold which means it has room to drop just a bit. The 4H RSI remains slightly bullish, but is sitting on its support. Stoch RSI on that TF is just now dipping into oversold. Daily RSI is bullish at 67 and the Stoch RSI is just now attempting to bounce out of oversold. With all of this in mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see price break to the downside, but I do believe that it would be limited in duration due to Stoch RSI being so close to bottoming out on all those TFs and RSI being neutral to bullish. Daily R3 pivot is at $7520. The orange zone indicates the daily demand zone which, again, I expect to ultimately support price on any attempted drop. While it does appear that we could be seeing a double top possibly forming over the past week, I'm hesitant right now to see the follow through since the various exchanges have significant differences in their May 16th swing low. The double top would not be confirmed until price closes below that swing low, so it would confirm on Binance first and Bitstamp last, with almost $1000 difference in pricing. More importantly, the target of the double top is the height of the swing high to swing low subtracted from the swing low. So not only would Bitstamp have to wait almost $1000 more to just confirm the double top, but then it would also have a $1000 lower target. Binance would be hitting its double top target just around the time Bitstamp confirms its own double top. The price target variance is just too large for me to give much consideration to a possible double top pattern at this time. Remember, Wave 2 was 1.5 months in duration and I have been saying since then that I expected Wave 4 to be at least 2 weeks long, but potentially up to 4 weeks. We are just over a week into Wave 4 at this time. While a sudden thrust through the resistance found at the $8000-$8300 level would have price exiting Wave 4 earlier than expected, with the volatility we have seen, I wouldn't be overly surprised. With all this being said, I remain long from ~$6830. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 15 minute chart (5/16/2019)Good morning traders. Last night saw price drop almost $700 (or just under 10%) which has traders scared of further downward movement. However, looking at the 15 minute chart, we can see that volume was lackluster at best. In other words, we should've seen a lot greater volume on that drop if supply was in control. Instead, we see supply volume has continued to contract throughout this entire consolidation/sideways movement while demand volume has expanded. Furthermore, the demand volume that showed up at the bottom of the drop is significant (2x what the supply volume was), indicating that demand is in control. As we can see, bullish divergence printed on RSI recently so we should expect price to head up rather than down. But this is a short TF, so I will be watching for confirmation in the form of price moving above the descending wedge's resistance. This will also take price above the 21 EMA and back above the S1 pivot. A close above the pivot at $8115 is bullish and would have price above the HVN once again. Overall, price has just continued to consolidate around the monthly pivot denoted by the green horizontal line while printing higher lows and highs. Many people have asked about the huge drop in Bitfinex shorts but lack of volume on the exchange. The most likely answer is that the individual settled their position, or "claimed" it as it is known on Bitfinex (support.bitfinex.com). From the FAQ: ....Claiming a position is essentially converting from a margin trade into an exchange trade; closing the position by buying it yourself and settling your funding costs to the lender. Because of this, there is no trade activity on the order book. Claiming your position does not involve trading." This is a bullish signal to me as it suggests that the individual is looking for price to go higher, so I am expecting another move to the upside. A close above the ascending triangle that appears to be printing would create a target of ~$9240 based on the height of the triangle. This gets price to my original target which is a good sign. However, if price does reach this point that doesn't mean it has to stop there, just that it is the target based on this pattern. Taking the height of the possible flagpole leading up to it would give us a target of ~$9900. This looks more possible based on Binance's BTC/USDT, for example, because it appears that a symmetrical triangle/pennant is printing there, so it's good to keep in mind. Either way, it's never a bad thing to lock in profit, especially in volatile areas like we are now. As an aside, the drop overnight has found support so far on the 4H 21 EMA and R1 pivot. This, again, would suggest that price is headed higher rather than lower for now. As always, risk management and confirmations should be strongly adhered to if traders intend to enter, whether long or short. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
5
BTCUSD 1D chart (5/15/2019)Good morning traders. Price continues to range sideways and, as it does, I am seeing and ever-growing list of "It's going to make a new low now," "The bear market isn't over yet," and "The bull market will begin, but not yet" arguments. Most retail traders are still in disbelief at the price advance for the past 5 months. Price must absolutely go way back down again, they say. This is in spite of all the indicators stating otherwise, not the least of which is price action and volume. For those looking to milk some profits out of a final move up, this sideways movement can be frustrating and stressful. For those looking to scalp, however, this has provided the perfect trading environment. We've had several Discord members taking advantage of the scalping environment and raking in quite a bit of profit in the process. I continue to hold my long position, however. If it is frustrating you that price has moved sideways for a few days, just understand that we are sitting at the 1M pivot so the resistance shouldn't be a surprise. Will price continue higher into a blow off top? That remains my expectation at this time. If so, just how high can it go? We spent much of yesterday evening discussing technical possibilities in Discord. The ~$8750-$9300/daily R5 pivot level is likely the safe bet, however zooming out to the 4H chart gives a possible wave count that takes price to ~$10,150-$10,350. Then of course there are other technical targets such as the H4 R4 pivot at $11,020, the top of the 2018 TR at $11,780, the H4 R5 pivot at $12,165, and 1M R1 pivot at $12,912. The corrective market fib levels are 61.8% at $9441.98, 50% at $11,394.14, 38.2% at $13,346.30, and 23.6% at $15,761.68. I would suggest that traders keep the monthly pivots and corrective market fib levels marked as significant areas of interest on their charts as price continues its move up through those levels, whenever it does finally happen. The reality is that anyone who happens to get close to the top on this possible final move up will be more lucky than anything else, myself included, due to the parabolic advance and cyclical accumulation that took place. So locking in any profit along the way is a smart move. The more emotional, less experienced traders will likely attempt to ride it up as high as possible and then be unable to convince themselves to exit when price reverses. Do not be that person. With volatility back in town, there will be a plethora of opportunities for much less risky trades in this market. As a trader, your job is to limit your risk, so you can start looking for upcoming opportunities in other cryptocurrencies. We have posted numerous alt trading opportunities in Discord recently for traders to watch as Bitcoin finishes up, and you should be keeping track of alts as well. We continue to expect alts to make good moves when Bitcoin enters its pullback. Currently, we see price finding resistance, and consolidating, at the 2018 TR EQ. It is possible that this consolidation is printing a pennant, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the reversal form here as well due to the 2018 TR EQ. We can see the parabolic advance noted on this daily chart but no large upper wick. Must it have this wick? No, but this is currently what I'm looking for to mark the blow off top and is why I believe we may still have some upside left in this movement. That being said, I'm also watching the current TR on the 1H and 4H TFs for signs of excessive weakness, in which case I would likely exit my position in anticipation of the reversal. Ultimately, price falling through the purple arc would be the signal that the parabolic movement is over. The noted demand zones in blue and grey are the support levels, as well as the TR at the pivot. Stoch RSI is crossing bullishly but we have a lot of hours left in this daily candle to change that. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
6