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BTCUSD 1H chart (5/10/2019)Good morning traders. Price printed a new 2019 high of $6336.93 in the past 24 hours. The more bearish among us continue to watch on in disbelief and reload shorts each time they're liquidated. The Bitfinex premium, which was recently almost $400, has now dipped to $120 while price has continued to rise. The Bitfinex Shorts/Long ratio remains at its highest levels ever. Overnight, price found resistance at the daily R2 pivot which had price hitting our target from May 8th. Among other more recent trading notations, I mentioned that as we were nearing the R1 pivot we would likely cross it, return to test it as support, and then target the R2 pivot. This is exactly what has happened. Price, during this time, has become increasingly parabolic which has me waiting for the final strong thrust up -- the last move before this leg is completed. I am not sure if we will get it, but even if we don't, I will stop out in fantastic profit. I still believe, especially now that we've made it to $6300, that the most reasonable course of action is to see price shoot up toward the upper $6000s to complete that parabolic move, and then consolidate in the $6000s for wave 4 before completing wave 5. So I am currently holding for the $6800 level, but have no problem exiting around $6500 if price action dictates that I should. If we can get wave 5 to end around the weekly/monthly pivot at ~$8000 then we can potentially see price returning to $4900/$5000 before starting its next large leg up. I am torn, however, as $6000 seems more likely to support price since it held as the floor throughout 2018. But because that lower possibility is there, I want to be sure you note it. In either case, it should be an easy short. This 1H chart shows price's current consolidation TR. Price has basically continued to trade in the upper half of the range which is generally considered bullish. That doesn't mean we can't see a Spring into the lower demand at $6160, but that is all that I would currently expect if price does drop lower. If it does happen to extend lower, then traders should be watching the demand noted at $6056 and $5890. For right now, a break through the top of the local horizontal TR should have price targeting the top of the ascending channel and a push through the channel's resistance should bring the ~$6800 target into play. I am watching for price to leave the descending red channel's resistance as an indication that price is likely ready to move up. The 1H Stoch RSI is oversold at this time suggesting a move up could come sooner (today) rather than later (tomorrow). Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 1D chart (5/9/2019)Good morning traders. Price continues to move as expected, notching a new 2019 high at $6099 on Bitstamp last night. I am zooming out to the 1D chart today to give my thoughts. I don't really have much to add to what I've been saying for the past 4 months, but I would like to reiterate what I'm thinking. Not too long ago I discussed this parabolic "pop" as a growing possibility (dotted purple curve). I have added in wave counts to let you know what I'm looking at from this larger TF. As you can see, I do believe we are in the fifth subwave of wave 3. However, where it ends remains a question. My belief, at this time, is that we will see it end between $6800 and the daily R3 pivot at $7475. Which level depends on how hard this next push is (should be subwave 3 of subwave 5 of wave 3). As always, I'll outline my thoughts with fibs, etc. during this morning's video update. Everybody else thought that price would get rejected hard at $6000 yet we see price consolidating on top of it, much like what we saw at $5600. This suggests another good push up which aligns with my thoughts. A parabolic move like we are seeing should result in a blow-off top at the end of wave 5. My current wave 5 target (blue line) is based on the wave 3 target shown and happens to be the weekly pivot. However, if wave 3 targets the R3 pivot instead, then the wave 5 target becomes the red line around $10,000. Retail traders continue to remain in disbelief at this year's rally and are ignoring the accumulation that occurred as well as the FOMO that will continue to flood in as price rises above $6000, making these targets more and more likely. However, this does not guarantee that we will reach them. At this point, there are many variables which makes it hard to pinpoint a really likely scenario. So, risk management remains the name of the game, folks. A breakdown from the recent high would likely see price retracing toward the $4350-$5000 level. That is the 61.8%-78.6% extension area. We would have to see how price moves at the beginning of that breakdown to figure out which is the most likely retracement target. My initial soft target for wave 3 remains the $6300-$6500 level, with an increasing likelihood that we will see it tap that $6800 level. But I will be watching price action and volume because the more this plays out as it has been, the more likely those higher targets of ~$6800 and ~$7400 are becoming. Looking at the pivots and price action, we would normally expect price to blow off around the R5 pivot as it is, which only gives more credence toward those higher wave 5 targets. If wave 5 targets $8000, then we would expect a retracement toward $4900-$5600 which is the sideways movement during April. If wave 5 targets $10,000 then we would expect a retracement toward $5800-$6600. In either case, the expected larger wave 2 retracement would find support at key levels before beginning the larger wave 3. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
19
BTCUSD 1H chart (5/8/2019)Good morning traders. I hope my continued insistence on risk management over everything else has gotten through to everyone. Yesterday's surprise news -- the Binance "hack" -- was a good example of the importance of risk management. Price dropped just over $200, as a result of the news, which liquidated many traders. The positive side to this is that Binance will cover the lost funds so traders didn't really lose anything. Normally, we would've expected to see a $1000 drop due to the news yet we only saw a third of that, and this morning we have already seen price recover all but $25 so far. During the drop, in our Discord last night, I mentioned that I wouldn't be surprised to see price rise back up and even make new 2019 highs pretty quickly. Why? Because accumulation has been occurring for quite a while which should mean that there isn't a lot of loose asset in the market. If much of the asset is in professional hands due to cyclical accumulation, then retail doesn't have the supply to cause price to drop significantly and stay down when they sell emotionally based on the Binance news. If this is the case, then the most likely result is that the professionals should be scooping up the retail selling. And here we are this morning, with a high that is just a few dollars off the price level when the news broke. Personally, I went long at $5772. I attempted to enter at $5720, after the 15 minute candle closed and confirmed a likely bounce, but couldn't get the order confirmed with the exchange until the higher price due to the overloaded servers. So I remain long toward my upper targets that I have mentioned numerous times in previous analysis. The 1H chart shows a great reversal candle at the bottom of the drop. We can see that price ultimately bounced at the EQ of the May 3rd TR with the candle body being supported by the HVN at $5750. Note that the volume associated with this reversal candle was greater than the volume associated with the supply candle prior to it (demand is stronger than supply). But even that supply candle's volume was less than the volume of the similar $200 supply candle earlier that morning. This tells us that there isn't as much interest in selling at these lower prices which generally means that price is ready to continue moving higher. I have relabeled the recent price action to better fit the activity seen last night. Price is now back above the 21 EMA and the top of the May 3rd TR, and has reclaimed the ascending red channel's EQ, which is bullish. It should also be noted that the move down also helped price possibly play out the 4H bearish divergence that was printing. If price can close above $5910, then I believe we will be seeing $6000 much sooner than later. I continue to watch for a close above the swing high at $5970. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 1H chart (5/7/2019)Good morning traders. Bitcoin price reached $5970 yesterday evening and, in typical retail trader fashion, now people are starting to think about entering. Unless you have a lot of experience and understand/employ strong risk management, it makes little sense to enter right now just as price is entering overheard resistance. There's too much risk associated with price suddenly dropping due to the resistance. While I do believe we have some further upward momentum coming, it is not guaranteed by any means. One of the most basic trading axioms is to never short support or long resistance -- traders should always wait for a break and confirmation of directional continuation. If price continues upward, as I expect, then we will likely see news reports about it thereby encouraging new retail money to enter the market and that leads us to the "theory." There is a theory making its rounds through social media stating that professionals accumulated at $3100 and are going to sell it at $6000-$6500 after news hits the wires that price overcome $6K, because there will be a flood of new money to buy all that distribution. First, accumulation most likely appears to have occurred around $6000 and $3100 (after the hypodermic distribution, it's actually most likely that price entered, specifically, an accumulation with weakness phase where we see lower lows and highs as accumulation occurs in the form of a descending wedge). If that's the case, then there won't be a significant dumping at the $6000 level. Second, even if all the accumulation happened at $3100, the idea of major cycle accumulation is to hold, not sell it at 100%. As such, the professionals wouldn't be selling everything for a measly 100% profit. The nearest version of truth to this theory would be that price will make much lower new lows (think: sub-$2000). In that case, the strong accumulation that the theory states took place at $3100 wouldn't be true because professionals wouldn't be accumulating that heavily for just a 100% possible profit. There is a fundamental lack of understanding of market cycles and accumulation/distribution phases that runs rampant on cryptotwitter and tradingview. Continue following it at your own peril. So what are we seeing at the moment? The 1H chart shows price printing a local TR/flag at the ascending channel's resistance. We want to see a close above last night's $5970 swing high now. If we can get that then, based on the height of the red ascending channel, price should be targeting the $6265 level, just under the R2 pivot (which is also just a couple of hundred dollars below the top of the large ascending channel. With shorts continuing to build, at what point do you think people will stop shorting and start longing? Such a move has the potential to pop price significantly upward and establish the $6000 level as support, lower price never to be seen again. Until that close above the swing high, though, this could just be a bull trap above channel resistance. The 1H 21 EMA appears to be continuing to provide support and the current candle looks like a liquidity-generating Terminal Shakeout, but we will need to see how the candle closes. For now, we should expect the HVNs at $5765-$5685 to provide support. Below that, we should be watching $5590 for support. If we don't see upward continuation today, then we may confirm the 4H bearish divergence that's printing. For now, I'm still expecting the November 18th supply/demand flip to ultimately provide support. So far, we are seeing strong demand devouring the incoming supply as this drop retested the larger, May 3rd, TR as support. This is likely printing a BUEC/LPS before the next move up. It's my belief that traders are concentrating on the very short TFs right now, rather than zooming out to the bigger picture and, as a result, will provide fuel to any upward movement from here as they continue to get shaken out by the lower TF noise. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H/1H charts (5/6/2019)Good morning traders. We had a great weekly close and, so far, have seen the previous supply zone flip to demand and support price as I mentioned was most likely to happen. Price has continued to consolidate between the top of the demand zone and the top of the ascending channel, but upward overall. However, we need to see some more significant price appreciation sooner rather than later as too much time spent sitting in this zone will lead to a drop in price once the demand is taken out by supply pressure. The 4H chart printed a bullish engulfing candle with Stoch RSI bottomed out and crossing bullishly while RSI remains bullish at 52.6. Price is attempting to close above the 21 EMA as well as it sits just above the pivot. While the 4H may look a bit ominous over the past three days (possible very narrow double top printing with a close below the purple line at $5510 confirming it), the 1H shows price currently printing a descending broadening wedge within a minor ascending channel within the greater 4H ascending channel. A breakdown of the minor ascending channel today or tomorrow would likely have price targeting the S1 pivot around $5240 to the ascending channel support just below it which would fill in the lower gaps. I will be watching for the 1H RSI to break through its descending resistance to suggest stronger upward momentum on the shorter TF. This should coincide with the 4H RSI doing the same, which would then give me reason to believe more significant upward momentum is on the way. I do have some concerns. There are 1H gaps below price at $5514.53 and $5180.91, with the latter situated near the EQ of the demand zone. This doesn't mean that price must fill those gaps right now, but the longer price just "hangs out" at its current level the more likely they will be filled before further upward progression. There is also a gap above price at $5714.40. For now, price does appear ready to continue its journey upward toward the targets mentioned in my previous analysis. Will price surge through the resistance of the various ascending channels to reach those higher targets or will it just continue to move up a bit, consolidate, and move up some more? We will see, but the channels do give us an idea of the levels to watch along the way, especially where they find confluence with other resistance levels and/or targets. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 1D chart (5/3/2019)Good morning traders. Price has now hit the three pattern targets and moved above the November 18th swing high. BTCUSD Shorts and Longs, both, dropped on the overnight move up but Longs have already started to recover this morning. I mentioned that Shorts were printing a daily bearish divergence and it seems to be playing out at this time. Daily Longs remain just above oversold and Stoch RSI is just now trying to push out of oversold. The Bitstamp and CME gaps have been filled at this point and the sideways movement through April appears to be re-accumulation with uprise as I have mentioned before. Having now moved through the November supply zone, it is most reasonable to assume that it will provide support having flipped to demand. Spot order books show significant visible supply overhead through $6000, with most flashing at $5900-$6000. However, if price takes off upward then the likelihood of much of the orders being pulled is increased substantially as traders attempt to wring every last dollar of profit they can. The chart shows no real interest on the 12H chart until $6040, with the HVN at ~$6300 looking like a rejection point. Price is currently butting against the 2018 low prior to the drop through $6000. The ascending red support line, on the 12H and smaller TFs, denotes a possible bottom to an ascending triangle with the November supply being the triangle resistance. The target based on the height of the triangle is the EQ of the next supply zone around the R2 daily pivot at $6460-$6550. This would put price around the 300% extension of Wave 1. We can see that daily RSI is just pushing through its descending resistance which should indicate further price advancement. Daily Stoch RSI is bullish at 56 with room to run as well. Exiting anywhere between here and $6550 would not be shameful at this point. There is a lot of supply above which means price can be rejected at any point, and locking in profits in an area of no real confidence is never a bad move. I remain long at this time, looking at that $6460-$6550 target but have no problem exiting prior to that if the chart gives me reason to do so. It still seems most reasonable that price will top out between $6250 and $6550. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 1H chart (5/2/2019)Good morning traders. Price continues to grind higher as expected with short sellers rigorously defending their positions above $5400 and $5600 but demand remaining relentless. As a result, price has now pushed through the blue TR's resistance. Having hit our first target, multiple targets still remain based on the patterns formed over the past week or so. The next target at $5435 is based on the ascending triangle and allows price to fill in the Bitstamp 1H gap at $5392.75 that was left as price dropped after the Tether news. But don't get too excited about shorting there as the CME Bitcoin futures gap remains at $5500 with the CME price tracking Bitstamp's price almost exactly. Would it be wise to short there? Here's the thing, price hitting $5500 necessarily puts recent short sellers under water. With Bitfinex Shorts showing bearish divergence in highly overbought territory (with Stoch RSI recently topped out) and Bitfinex Longs just now leaving oversold (with Stoch RSI recently bottomed out) a sudden price move toward $5500 has a good chance of initiating a local short squeeze. But, as mentioned before, this would likely push price into the $5600s which would most likely begin a much larger short squeeze of November 2018 short positions. Shorts they have reached their double bottom target and Longs are printing a descending wedge of which they are recently bouncing off the bottom. A quick look at this 1H chart shows us that price is currently finding support on the TR's resistance but it is also nearing the ascending channel's support. If that support fails to hold, then we could potentially see price targeting $5200/$5220 at the top of the demand zone. However, I would expect to see a bounce from there. If the support holds, then we should expect to see price target the top of the ascending channel which gets it to that $5500 level at the EQ of the November supply as well as just above the R2 pivot. This continues to seem like the most likely move, but traders who are entering in this area absolutely must have a good grasp of risk management otherwise they are gambling at best whether they are longing or shorting here. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 4H chart (5/1/2019)Good morning traders. We saw a good daily candle print yesterday and are on our way to possibly confirming the checkmate pattern that I have been discussing. Ideally, I'd like to see another good daily candle close today, preferably at $5400 or higher. We had a good weekly close, keeping price within a narrow trading range and recovering the previous week's loses, but we had a great monthly close as well. So far, we are seeing price take a bit of a breather after tagging the top of the month-long blue TR. In doing so, price has moved beyond our first target. The 4H RSI appears to be testing its previous ascending resistance as support while price tests the pivot as support. We continue to see demand showing up over the course of the past 6 hours as witnessed by the lower wicks on the current and previous candles. There is a strong defense of $5400 happening right now, most likely put on by those who shorted just above that level, but price continues to be bid up well. If price continues through $5400, then the defense at $5600 is the remaining wall. A convincing move through this latter level should see price easily pushing into $6000. I would be concerned about failed upward progression if price falls below the demand at $5130. However, that doesn't mean that price necessarily must drop to $4000 and below from there. Rather, traders should pay attention to price action and volume as price approaches the bottom of the blue TR. Weak supply on a move down would suggest a possible Spring printing just below the TR followed by price moving back toward the top of that TR. As you are aware, I have been expecting May to be a retracement month, however it is possible we could see price spend most of the month moving sideways. I remain long at this time. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 4H/1D charts (4/30/2019)Good morning, traders. It appears that we are getting some action this morning as price popped out of a few patterns and is testing the resistance of another. Tomorrow is the monthly close. This movement is not unexpected at all if you've been following my analysis. Price action and volume analysis across multiple TFs have suggested that this is the most likely movement, but can demand follow through? Price is now above the 21 EMA on the 4H chart once again, as well as being at the top of the HVN. It still remains a bit below the 4H pivot, though. So far, 4H RSI is trending within the ascending channel it printed. A fall through the channel support would most likely signal downward price progression. If the daily RSI pushes through its descending resistance, traders should be looking at higher targets. There are four targets based on the patterns. The first is just above that pivot at $5265 and is based on the height of the red descending channel. The second is $5435 and will come into play once price exits through the purple ascending triangle's resistance. This second target is also at the ascending dotted channel's EQ. The third is $5660 and is based on the height of the red descending broadening wedge. This third target also puts price at the November 18th high which is important because continued movement above it sets into motion the possibility of liquidating the shorts initiated there at that time. The fourth target is at $5918 and is based on the height of the large blue TR, but will not activate until price closes above that upper blue horizontal line at the top of the TR. Will price make it to that fourth target and then be rejected, or will it continue toward $6300 and get rejected at the HVN? Nobody knows for sure, but the HVN argument makes a lot of sense. I have explained the higher targets over the past few weeks so feel free to look back through my previous analysis. The possible checkmate pattern that I discussed yesterday should have price targeting the $5510 level, where it began, if it plays out. After the recent high almost taking out the whole of supply in that area, it doesn't seem likely that there will be enough supply there to suppress price if it gets to that level. The is a lot of defending of the $5200-$5300 level still happening suggesting that there are possibly some strongly over-leveraged shorts sitting just above. A sudden move above $5300 might just set them off causing a small squeeze toward the other cluster of shorts in the $5600 area which could lead to a much larger squeeze. However, the longer it takes price to get moving up that way, the less likely the squeeze becomes as traders start getting nervous and exiting their short positions. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H chart (CME 4H chart also) 4/29/2019Good morning, traders. We have had a rather uneventful weekend which has been upsetting to many as the market has not provided direction. Tether Bitcoin pairs continue to print a premium over USD Bitcoin pairs. CME futures printed a gap at $5500 which will need to be filled, however this could come after price moves down first. Bitstamp has a 1H gap around $5400 as well. Price is not looking particularly strong at this time, however as price drops to $5100 the order books flash strong bids so we may be seeing retail selling into professional hands at that level. Currently, the daily candle has gapped down at $5161 so I expect that if we do drop it won't be long-lived. The recent weekly close printed a candle spread almost identical to the previous week's, just ending where that previous week began, and the weekly remains bullish at 55.5 at this time, though Stoch RSI is still overbought but finally falling. We can see price has crossed above the EQ of the descending channel which is usually considered bullish. If price pushes through the channel's resistance then we should be expecting a target of $5800-$5900, depending on when it happens, based on the height of the channel. Price has remained on the topside of the TR as it continues to print higher lows overall. So the move up mentioned ultimately would result in a target between $5900 and $6000, based on the height of the TR. Of course this is all in addition to the older targets from larger patterns that we have previously discussed. In the near term, a close above $5206 should get the ball rolling on greater appreciation and would have price targeting the top of the ascending channel that it may current be printing, as well as have price exiting the descending channel and TR. Everything else aside, the blue TR is the dominant pattern that traders should be watching. Secondary is the descending channel that price has been printing since the recent high. And third is the ascending channel within that descending channel. We have the monthly close tomorrow, so price may continue more sideways than anything else through that time. I have continued to mention that we are either at, or near, the top of this third wave and trying to trade this is often futile for most traders because they tend to hold for a big move and then get liquidated or scared off due to the noise before it happens. For most traders, this is not the time to be in a trade. It's best to wait for confirmation of this upward movement to be completed and then go long at the completion of the corrective wave 4. My final thought is in regard to a short squeeze. There's a lot of talk about it due to the significant increase in shorts, their overbought level, and the strong shorts-to-long ratio, as well as the longs oversold level. Since short squeezes most often happen at support, we would need to consider the blue TR's EQ as support. But what else should have us considering that this may occur? We have printed three daily dojis after that strong drop. As a matter of fact, the daily chart, starting from the recent high, looks a lot like a checkmate pattern (can also see this on the 4H chart). The large candle's low at $4991.42 has not been reached since the initial drop last Thursday. Instead, price has been trapped in a narrow trading range of about $150 on top of the TR's EQ (i.e. support level). Confirmation of this pattern would be 1-2 strong bullish candles. The short squeeze wouldn't fully commence until around $5700, but the shorts that piled up just a few hundred dollars above the current price could be the fuel to get price to that level. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
XBTUSD 4H/1H charts (4/25/2019)Good morning, traders. Imagine thinking price hit the high and shorting already. Or worse yet, remaining short and not buying the dip yesterday. Of course this is only a sad predicament if you believe price will head higher before heading lower. I continue to remain long at this time. Nothing has changed, in the larger picture, to warn me that I need to exit my long yet. The 4H chart shows price doing what it was expected to do as part of the re-accumulation scenario. RSI continues to be supported by the ascending line and Stoch RSI has crossed bullishly but is still well in oversold territory. Price is currently testing the top of the resistance level, which marks the top of the TR as shown, while printing a flag. If we take the flagpole as the length from the ST Area to the SOS, then a breakout through the flag's resistance would set up a target at purple ascending channel's resistance around $6300. The 1H chart shows a potential triple double bottom in the local TR with a target of ~$5615. A close above $5485 would confirm the pattern. This triple bottom is printing after the recent triple top and marks the target of that triple top pattern. Once price clears the descending channel's/flag's resistance, that opens up the much higher target mentioned earlier. With shorts continuing to rise, we can assume that a break above the horizontal red line will begin a short squeeze that could propel price toward the upper target. That $5690 level is the swing high of the supply created in November after price broke down through $6000, and there is little-to-no market interest until around $6300 which aligns with the flag's target. The vertical red line denotes tomorrow's CME April Bitcoin Futures expiry, with the blue vertical line denoting May's, and the green vertical line denoting June's. As mentioned yesterday, bearish divergence is printing on the daily chart. This would seem to suggest that price should be headed down, however wave structure, patterns, the large ascending channel, and the re-accumulation zone seem to suggest the final pop up before a retracement. It does not guarantee it though. In either case, if you are already in a trade or are thinking about entering one, you should have two plans: the first is your exit if price takes the path you think it will and the second is your exit if price takes the path you don't think it will. If you do not have both plans in place, then you shouldn't be in a trade because you will most likely trade emotionally, especially if price moves against you, and trading emotionally loses money. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
XBTUSD 4H chart (4/24/2019)Good morning, traders. I see a lot of traders are very disturbed by this small move down and, as a result, reversing their calls this morning. Yet it's exactly what I said was likely to happen. With the break out of the 4H TR being the SOS, the odds were high to return to the TR and test it as support to complete the BUEC/LPS before printing another, higher, SOS. I have mentioned numerous times that traders should not be paying attention to the short TFs right now. You should be zooming out to the 4H and larger TFs if you want to see what's really going on. There's too much noise in this area, for most traders, to remain zoomed in. You can also likely identify the local 30 minute/1H TR as reaccumulation with a spring which usually appears weak (hence the spring). I'll be discussing this in this morning's video update. I had some requests to chart on BitMex rather than the usual Bitstamp, so make sure you are aware that Mex is the chart this time around. The 4H chart shows price's return to the TR's resistance to test it as support. We can see the 21 EMA continuing to provide support, as well as the HVN. The 4H RSI bounced off its own ascending support and Stoch RSI just dipped into oversold. Yes, there is a possible tweezer top pattern printing on the daily, but we still have more than 1/3 of the daily candle remaining before close so it's much too early to give it any significance. With the move down overnight, I'd watch the shorter TFs to see if price is gearing up to retrace that move. The 1H and lower TFs are suggesting such a retracement at this time with the 2H Stoch RSI recently bouncing off the bottom of oversold and nearing a bullish cross. Price breaking back above the top of the 4H TR's resistance area/R1 pivot at $5474 would be a bullish signal, whereas dropping below the 4H pivot at $5210 would require traders to take another look at price action. Bitfinex Shorts are printing bearish divergence on the 4H TF while the Longs are well into oversold on that same TF. A large retracement to the downside should see Shorts piling on and Longs dropping off, so this current situation seems to be suggesting that we will see price rising rather than dropping in the near term. As such, my upper targets that I have been discussing for a while now remain in play. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 1D chart (4/23/2019)Good morning, traders. If you are with us in Discord, then you know that Bitcoin's move over night hit the third target that we had based on the Dragon harmonic pattern. It also hit last night's triangle target and a bit more, while sitting up the golden cross. As long as price remains elevated through the daily close, that cross should happen. This Show of Strength (SOS) confirmed the recent blue TR as accumulation with an uprise, as I have been mentioning it appeared to be for almost two weeks now. Finally, price has tapped just above the daily supply creating that swing high over night as well. While increasing numbers of traders continue to pile into the "sell everything, it's going to crash right now" corner, it seems more likely that price will continue higher toward the targets we have outlined previously. The argument from the "sky is falling" group is that price is fatigued, however daily RSI and Stoch RSI do not agree with that analysis. The former is barely overbought at 75.6 and the latter has just recently moved out of oversold. That combination generally means that price has more steam left in the tank. Currently, RSI and MACD are printing possible bearish divergence, but since the upward movement hasn't completed yet we could see those indicators continue to rise with price. In other words, the divergence hasn't definitively been printed yet, but it needs to be watched. At this time, I am watching the November 18, 2018 swing high at $5658.47 (red line). I believe a push through that level should trigger another short squeeze and see price targeting the EQ of the supply, at the least, which would complete a full retrace of the November shakeout. A look at the VPVR on the right side of the chart shows that there is little interest for traders until around that area. CME Bitcoin futures expiry happens on Friday, and if they're net long then we can likely expect some added push to get price as high as possible before that time. If you measure the flagpole from the break through the log resistance line, then the target (green) for that pennant pattern is also at that same area. Price has been printing an ascending channel, as we have been watching for a while now, and a move through that channel's resistance should target (blue) the same general area in the supply that I mentioned. If price hits this level, then we would likely expect price to retrace toward $5200/$5300 for wave 4, before completing wave 5 above $7000. Wave 2 took about 1.5 months to complete, so we can expect wave 4 to likely take about 4 weeks, possibly aligning with CME Bitcoin futures May expiry to complete short through the month and then long into June. We can probably expect to see alts finally making some gains again during May, if this scenario holds true. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
3
BTCUSD D1 chart (4/22/2019)Good morning, traders. If you watched my last video update on that other social media site that Tradingview won't allow me to mention, then you know that I had two possible symmetrical triangles that may be printing on the daily TF. There is the immediate one that I drew on last Friday's TV update, but then I discussed the possibility of a slightly larger one where this current movement is still part of wave D with a small move down for wave E remaining before the final thrust up to complete wave 3. In either case, that should provide a $6400-$6700 target. Remember, that target is derived as the height of the flagpole from the pennant breakout, so the range is there for now as we figure out which triangle is printing. Also, the higher wave 3 completes, the more bullish price becomes as the likelihood of the $6000 level providing support increases. As mentioned on Friday, a move up like this would continue to build the case for a comparison to gold's correction. And, if so, then you can likely remove all hope of sub-$5000 prices again as wave 5 would target $7400-$8000 and the $6000 level would, then, provide support once more. With D1 ETHUSD currently printing a triangle and D1 LTCUSD printing a descending wedge, both of which are nearing breakout, why would you continue to short Bitcoin? It makes absolutely no sense. We are currently printing our 4th daily doji candlestick in a row, just under $5300. Volume has continued to drop as expected due to price's range becoming tighter. You can see the higher lows building toward resistance at the top of the daily TR. I have both possible running contracting triangle resistances noted: the first in black and the second in red. CME Bitcoin futures expire on Friday, April 26th. I warned earlier this month of the possibility of price moving sideways through the end of the month as price consolidated before breaking out. The question is, are you still in the disbelief stage or have you accepted that Bitcoin is bullish? While movement in the markets is never guaranteed, I see very little, and continually dwindling, support for any bearish scenario at this time. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 4H chart (4/19/2019)Good morning, traders. Many were scared off by yesterday evening's little drop. As we can see, price bounced just above the pivot closing above the 21 EMA once more. The short double bottom target, of the swing high denoted by the purple line/R1 pivot, remains at this time. The 4H Stoch RSI is nearing a bullish cross in oversold. RSI remains bullish at 56.8. The ascending dotted channel suggests that once price closes above its EQ, we should then see it targeting the channel's resistance. If price breaks through that resistance, then we should see it targeting the R4 pivot, around $6270, based on the channel's height. There is one more possibility -- that price has been printing a running contracting triangle as a pennant, which I will explain in greater detail during this morning's video. But what that means is that we could then expect to see a possible target of around $6800, at the top of the supply zone, based on the height of the flagpole leading up to that triangle/pennant. I know that such a suggestion hits the "outlandish" button for many traders, and I am not stating that we will definitely get there, but it is a possibility that's based on current price action so it can't be ignored. While it would violate the strongly-held emotional bias of the strength of $6000 as resistance which much of cryptotwitter holds dear, traders must consider that if enough accumulation has occurred, then it is possible for price to push through that level with more ease than expected. As such, traders would find it detrimental to ignore the level of likely FOMO that would ensue in such a situation as traders rush to get their orders in once they see $6000 falling instead of price being rejected as expected. This would follow the gold pattern that we have looked at before, and which I will discuss during this morning's video once more as well. It's up to you, as the analyst, to decide just how likely you think such a scenario is. I remain long at this time. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 1H/1D charts (4/18/2019)Good morning, traders. Price continues to push up gradually. Our targets remain as shown in the charts. As mentioned yesterday, the current TR as drawn on the daily appears to be reaccumulation with an uprise with an immediate target of $5910/15 based on the height of the TR, on the larger TF. The 1H chart has price printing an ascending wedge as it looks to target the blue line which is based on the height of the double bottom. 1H RSI is printing a slight descending wedge. We can also see slight hidden bullish divergence as noted at wedge support with the arrow. 1H and daily Stoch RSI are just out of, or just now attempting to leave, oversold. Daily RSI continues to remain within its ascending channel. I have also added a custom Ichimoku Cloud indicator that one of our members created, and which is available to all our paid Discord members. This indicator seems much more tuned to crypto movements and shows a flat top cloud on both TFs indicating strong support in that area. The 1H cloud has recently twisted bullish as well, while the daily cloud appears to be nearing the same twist, suggesting further upside is likely. All this as it is, we can see a purple ascending broadening wedge possibly printing on the daily TF. The proposed target is above the wedge's resistance so it is possible that we could see a bull trap print. However, be aware that there is a slight possibility that price could continue much higher as well depending on how much demand and supply are available at that level. I don't hold a lot of belief that it will happen, though. That is my expected wave 3 target based on my current count that I've published previously. The vertical red lines on the daily denote the CME monthly expirations through the end of the summer. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD 4H chart (4/17/2019)Good morning, traders. I believe we are a lot more bullish than most of retail thinks at this moment. We see the dips being aggressively bought up with price still pushing higher. Everyone continues to compare the current market to 2014/15, which only results in feeding their bearish bias. As I've mentioned before, nobody is comparing price action and volume from that time period to now though. The current structure looks like what we consider to be the strongest of the reaccumulation TRs -- a reaccumulation with an uprise. As we can see, price has been printing higher highs and higher lows throughout this TR. In other words, demand continues to show up much more aggressively than supply. We can note increasing volume, since the volume lows on April 13th, as price continues to rise. Even this morning's shallow $50 shakeout caught bids at the 4H pivot. By the way, as I have mentioned numerous times before, pushing up through the bottom of the pivot is generally considered bullish and we usually look for the R1 pivot as the next immediate target. That would also put price at the TR's AR, which is within the supply zone noted. Depending on how you define this TR (from swing high to swing low, BC to Shakeout, ascending triangle, etc.) there are essentially four targets. The two purple lines and the R3 and R4 pivots. The R3 pivot gives us a 261% extension off wave 1 which makes it a strong candidate of where price is headed at this time. However, I will potentially readjust this target depending on volume and price action leading up to it. As long as RSI bounces off of, or otherwise remains above, the red line then we should be looking for price to rise. Alternatively, if price happens to drop below its ascending red support, then I will be looking for a Spring at the S2 pivot/demand zone. If price is rejected at the R1 pivot then I will being watching for the move down to form the Spring as well. While 4H Stoch RSI is overbought there is still room to move up, and 1H Stoch RSI has a lot of room to run. RSI on both TFs is currently bullish with a lot of room remaining to the upside. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
JNJ: Stuck in a trading range, buybacks are supporting the stockA weekly chart reveals the long-term trading range in which JNJ has been stuck. This Dow component ran up due to buybacks around the start of this year. But the trend and volume-based indicators show a lack of quiet accumulation by Dark Pools. The stock slid down ahead of its earnings release today and gapped up slightly on the report, but there has been considerable profit-taking today as well. So JNJ remains bound in a narrower range just below the trading range highs, where it could languish for some time.
NYSE:JNJ
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
BTCUSD 1D chart (4/15/2019)Good morning, traders. Everyone continues to scream that the sky is falling but price action is telling us something different. Even I had taken a quick position that we may have completed subwave 5 even though I mentioned that I didn't like how short it was. After this weekend, I believe that we may not have completed it yet and, as a matter of fact, subwave 5 of wave 3 may be my $5900/$6000 target with wave 5 reaching my ~$6400 target that I was discussing last week. I've outlined it as I'm watching it at the moment. Currently, I'm still looking for price to target the $5335 level to complete wave B of subwave 4 of wave 3, which I mentioned as a possibility last week in my morning update video, since demand continues to show up. We currently have two pattern targets noting that level: the April 11th-14th TR and the flag that is printing. It is also the 78% retracement level. The daily Stoch RSI is bottomed out and, with a little upward price movement, should print a bullish cross. Daily RSI is just under overbought and remains within the ascending channel. Other than that, we can see price printing a TR on the daily TF with a target of $5910/15. We should expect price to ultiamtely top out a bit higher than that for wave 3. The previous R5 pivot was at $5954, so likely somewhere between that and $6054. Based on current market structure and price action, it is projected that we will see a golden cross print on the daily TF around April 22nd. Notice price recently being supported at a HVN and the projected wave 5 target hitting the next HVN. I also mentioned last week that we could see price moving sideways through the end of this month, and the current price action continues to support that possibility as price prints a TR. This means that we may not see the move up to complete wave 3 until around the time of the CME futures expiry. If so, then alts should provide good opportunity to profit until then. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
6