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MELI: Trading Range Technical Pattern Reveals Large LotsThe outline in red shows the trading range pattern for MELI stock on the daily time frame. The highs of this range are remarkably level for a trading range. The extreme low rebound is lower than prior range lows. The compression of price before the gap up is a particularly important pattern to watch for in a trading range market condition, to anticipate a breakout. Use volume oscillators along with candlestick patterns to identify the underlying hidden large lot activity.
NASDAQ:MELI
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/19/2019)Good morning, traders. Price has continued to move well yesterday and into today, hitting our third target (based on the height of the flagpole) at $3945 while pushing through the 50 and 100 day MAs. Most TFs are overbought at this point, including the daily. Yesterday's volume continued expansion, which I have been mentioning for a while now that traders should be watching, as it hit a 10-month high. I also said, yesterday, that I wanted to see price close above $3774, which it did. At this point, price has cleared the descending channel resistance and is sitting above the symmetrical triangle resistance. However, price has not retested either as support yet. I am not a fan of price falling back into the triangle, but diagonals are nothing more than a by-product of continuous horizontals and a retest of $3690-3720 would do wonders for another bullish push. So, that's what I'm looking for at this time. Anything significantly lower, for instance a close below the ascending channel that is possibly printing, puts the idea of bullishness into jeopardy. A possible double top may be forming on the 15 minute TF with a confirmation being a close below the $3840 swing low which would signal a target of $3720 based on that pattern and would provide a retest of that 2-month-old descending channel resistance as support. A close above $4237 would print a higher high to go with the current higher low and establish a possible uptrend. During yesterday's morning video update, I stated that this was especially not the time to trade emotionally. So this is a good opportunity to remind everyone of the other possible price targets that I have been mentioning for the past few months. 1) Bitfinex price structure does not have price exiting the symmetrical triangle yet, unlike Bitstamp which has seen price move about $100 above the triangle's resistance so far. This means that we could see price printing an ABCDE triangle which would result in one more leg down. That would mean that price is currently completing the C leg with a D leg down to the bottom of the triangle once more and an E leg up to the top, remaining, before that leg down. In that case, the symmetrical triangle pattern target would be around $2300-$2400. But that would also complete five waves down and signal a likely reversal from that area. 2) Another idea is that we are currently completing the fifth wave as an ending diagonal which would likely complete around the September 2017 low ($2900-$3000). 3) Price could be completing a more complex correction which would see price targeting the sub-$2000 level. 4) Even if price continues higher, failure to continue above $5000 could still see that move up as the completion of Wave 4 with the final wave still to come and targeting sub-$2000 as well. If the current price structure is accumulation then that would make the only truly plausible possibilities the bullish reversal currently happening or #2. In regards to the latter, I would prefer to see price reach the R2 pivot/descending channel target and get rejected by the supply in that area, as well as the ATH descending resistance, before heading back down to create a slightly lower corrective low in the $2900s. This would print a well-formed ST within Phase B and prepare price for a further price advance toward the top of the TR at around $4300. There is also the possibility, as I have shown numerous times before, that the TR as drawn is exaggerated and the actual TR is between $3474 and $4410. The difference lies in whether you are looking at the TR via the D1 or W1 TF. Obviously this is a lot of information and possibilities to take in, so I will be going over it more directly in this morning's video update. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/15/2019)Good morning, traders. Price is attempting to push its way through the descending wedge's resistance as H4 RSI is pushing through its own resistance. H4 MACD is curled up and nearing a bullish cross above centerline. As we can see, the green target, which is based on the height of the wedge, is near the previous swing high. Traders need to be cautious as price nears that area. A close above that swing high is what is needed. A wick above but close below prints a bearish SFP which will likely have price reversing. However, a close above that swing high opens up the targets I discussed yesterday as price begins closing above the pattern resistances. While anything is possible at all times, there is little-to-no reason to think price is ultimately headed down from here at this time. At the very least, we should see price move up toward $3900. A daily close above $3615 should make this much more likely as that gets price back above the daily pivot. I am still not a big fan of the possible IHS but have left it for those of you who are interested in it. BTCUSD Shorts may be finding a temporary bottom at the very least. More importantly, they are nearing the area where they have previously bounced and price headed down as a result. Just because it has happened before does not mean it will continue to happen, though, but it is something to keep an eye on. If Shorts happen to drop below that level this time around it may be an indication that the market is reversing. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/12/2019)Good morning, traders. Price has continued within the flag and bounced off the 38.2% retracement on the D1 chart as I mentioned I was watching for yesterday. H1 is printing a short-term double bottom with a target of $3620, once price closes above the swing high of $3586 which would confirm it. H1 RSI is just under neutral at 47.3 and butting up against resistance, while H4 RSI has finally retreated to 52 as it bounced off the previous resistance area and is printing a descending broadening wedge, suggesting price may be readying itself to resume its upward momentum soon (as long as it holds). D1 RSI is holding bullishly around 52 while retesting resistance as support at this time as well. Price is sitting on the H4 21 EMA and just below the 21 EMA on the H1 while volume has been picking up in this area. This also puts price just below the daily pivot, so we need to see D1 price closing above that pivot to signal continued bullishness, though I really want to see price closing above the D1 TR's EQ of $3645. The more convincingly price can close above that level, the more bullish it becomes. However, if this level does not hold, I will be looking for the $3450/70 area to provide support. The pattern-based targets remain valid at this time. Ultimately, I am watching price within the pink descending broadening wedge. A move through the wedge's resistance provides a target above the flag's resistance which signals increasingly bullish likeliness if price can follow through beyond that target. That target happens to align with the D1 TR's EQ. However, a drop through the wedge's support signals, at the least, a test of the bottom of the local flag/EQ of the D1 descending channel. I see a lot of traders forcing entries right now. Don't. You should be waiting for price action to tell you which way to trade, not enter just to be in the market. The latter is the easiest way to lose money right after FOMO. BTCUSD longs and shorts are currently rising as a result. Volatility has also dropped off after the surge in action four days ago. Visible orders across the major spot exchanges and Bitmex show dominant demand right now which is a good sign if we can see an influx of buying. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Demand continued to flow into the pair over the weekend with supply attempting to assert itself yesterday. Up looks much more likely than down, in the near term at least. The D1 chart shows price sitting on the daily pivot after being rejected around the 50% retracement of the December 15th low to the December 24th high, but we could see it retreat as far as the 38.2% level before heading up. The target for the break of the green descending wedge is around the 61.8% retracement, as shown, which is also the descending channel's resistance. Currently, price is printing a pennant/flag, and if that breaks bullishly then the target would be the 78.6% retracement based on the height of the flagpole. This takes price through the descending channel's and symmetrical triangle's resistances leaving targets of the R4 pivot around $4380-$4420 and upper supply zone around $5200, respectively. However, in reaching this latter target, price would necessarily move bullishly out of the large descending wedge which has been printing since the ATH and signal a target of $14,000+. Be aware that absolutely none of that is guaranteed. What we are looking at is pattern-based targets that only become active once price leaves the pattern. Traders should be watching the previous swing highs at all times because a failure of price to close above them signals weakness. H1 RSI appears to have found a bottom, so traders should be watching for a push through its resistance. Price's move through its own resistance should have it targeting the top of the local TR and flag/pennant resistance. As shown, a bullish push through that resistance should set a target near the top of the descending channel at around $3780. So we have multiple targets based on multiple TFs and patterns for traders to choose from depending on what TF they are able to trade and their level of risk aversion. Obviously, a breakdown of price below the local TR support should have traders cautious about a possible move to the bottom of the flag/EQ of the large descending channel. Failure of that area to support price opens up a possible move to the bottom of the descending channel. D3 RSI is sitting bearish at 40, and has been ranging for almost two months, but another strong move up would rectify that for the bulls. Last week's W1 candle printed strong bullish engulfing as well as tweezer bottoms, which should signal further upward momentum. Weekly RSI is sitting at 36.5 and, like the D3 RSI, has been ranging for almost two months but is nearing its descending channel resistance. Looking objectively at the W1 chart, it appears that an accumulation TR may be developing with an expected move toward $4300-$4400 which aligns with the D1 descending channel's pattern target. Failure of price to continue upward from there, through the ATH resistance line would signal an expected move back to the bottom of the TR to print an ST in Phase B as I have discussed previously in multiple daily live streams. However, based on the structure of the larger patterns and the current TR, if it is accumulation and price follows this path back down then it becomes increasingly likely that traders may not see the Spring they all are waiting on. Rather, the pair could just print an LPS due to significant demand in the $3000-$3500 area. If so, then we could realistically see price above $6000 by the end of Q2. A February close above $3693.85 would print the first higher monthly close since July 2018 (which is the only higher monthly close we've seen since the ATH). All this being as it is, there is also the chance that we could see a continued move up into the $6000s from where price currently sits as well. Accumulation doesn't just happen horizontally, though most of the time that is the case. So be careful of anyone promising you that price MUST do something particular. If you think you are going to "catch the bottom," be realistic and understand that there is very little chance of you doing so (and if you do it will result from luck, rather than skill). Understanding what is happening with price action and committing to buying near the bottom will be a lot more effective in the long run, but that also means that you most cannot jump in with 50%-100% leverage. The fact is, you will not get rich overnight and the more you attempt to do so the more likely you are to lose everything. Of course price could also always head lower, beyond the 2018 low, as well. While this seems increasingly unlikely, the potential for it to do so remains as long as price sits below $6500. A close below the daily S1 pivot, especially on the D3 chart, is what I would be watching for in regards to a possible move down and resumption of accumulation below $3000. Otherwise, any price move below that level, especially after a move up to $4300 first, would most likely be nothing more than the ST and Spring which indicates a move back up to the top of the blue TR in both cases. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/8/2019)Good morning, traders. Price action just got interesting this morning. H4 and D1 RSI are breaking bullishly through their resistance and volume has picked up noticeably. As a matter of fact, H4 RSI is now bullish at 56. Obviously we need to see follow through, and there is still another 2 hours left in this current candle, but volume is already nearing the same level of the previous candle's volume and price is attacking the green descending wedge's resistance. A successful breach through that green resistance, and continuation, provides a $3865 target. That is also at/near the top of the descending channel. As always, traders must be mindful of previous swing highs. We need to see candles closing above them, not wicking up and then closing below. This latter scenario results in a bearish SFP which should be an indication that price will reverse for a short time at the least. The 15 minute through H1 TFs are overbought signalling that we may see a bit of a pullback before further advancement but it's not guaranteed. Price's current location has the potential to result in strong FOMO that could keep those TFs overbought for a while. At this point, the two most important thing to watch are the H4 and D1 RSI levels. We want to see them both closing and remaining above their respective resistance levels because they are longer term resistance. I have added a few price range target tools to give traders an idea of targets based on patterns that are breaking bullishly. As long as they continue to do so, each target should continue to lead to the next higher target. Failure of follow through should have traders watching the bottom of the blue TR and the two dashed lines below it. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/7/2019)Good morning, traders. After the recent drop and immediate reversal price has continued to move sideways adding to traders' already pessimistic attitudes and boredom. But don't let the market lull you to sleep. These are precisely the times traders need to be extremely aware of what's going on as sudden moves often do happen and catch sleeping traders off guard. Bitmex supply side order book looks much less aggressive than it has for the past week and its buy side is stacking up once again. Bitfinex order book continues to be the leader for the spot market with demand spikes currently showing 1070 BTC at $3410 with 500 more at $3350 and another 611 at $3300, while supply side is showing 801 BTC at $3800. What we have is a continued slow drift downward within a descending wedge near the bottom of a descending channel on the D1 chart. D1 RSI also remains within the descending wedge that it has been printing and MACD remains flat with possible bullish divergence printing across November 27th til January 31st. We need to see MACD curling up before we can confirm this though. H4 RSI continues to print a symmetrical triangle which could lead to a break up. But in order to do so, demand must overcome supply. The higher RSI lows show demand increasing, but the lower highs indicate that supply is still pressuring the pair. In other words, as I have been saying, demand and supply are fighting hard for position. The weekly 200 MA is sitting at $3314 currently with weekly volume near the lows seen just before price dropped through the $6000 floor, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a retest of that MA. An objective look at what's going on, especially if you compare it to 2015, suggests that we should get a bounce off the 200 MA area, followed by a move toward the top of the TR and the descending ATH resistance, then a move back down to the bottom of the TR for a Spring followed by a move up and out of the TR. I'm not telling anyone to change their minds about moves toward $2000 and lower, only reminding them that price has continued to set up this particular move and it aligns with the weekly look at the 2015 correction. Switching from candles to line view makes the picture much clearer and I will take a look at that during this morning's live stream. Remember, my goal isn't to convince you that you are right, wrong, or otherwise, only to help you keep your emotional bearishness in check so that you trader smarter and protect your capital. At the end of the day, we are still in a corrective market until proven otherwise so the trend is down. The key is to pay attention to what's going on so that you can notice potential reversals setting up and keep from getting caught in the wrong direction when the market does reverse. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/6/2019)Good morning, traders. Overnight saw Bitcoin finally falling through the bottom of the ascending channel. As I have been warning, failure of follow through on a break through resistance will likely result in price continuing to head lower. That strength into the end of the daily candle yesterday printed a bullish cross on the MACD which has since turned into a potential bearish cross today. I say "potential" because we need to wait for the daily candle to close in order to confirm it. Furthermore, there was no follow through on the bullish SFP that printed as well. Price is now printing a symmetrical triangle after the $100 drop, but it looks weak suggesting a further move down. In terms of a TR, we have potentially only seen the beginning of this one with the January 28th low marking the lower bounds and the January 30th high marking the upper bounds. This is the blue channel and is something I discussed as a possibility about a week ago. Is this trading range a shorter-term redistribution or accumulation? There's no way to know at the moment. The expectation should be a further drop toward the bottom of the blue TR, likely around $3300 (or, with enough FOMO on the drop, potentially $3260 to tag the bottom of the larger descending channel), and print an ST. Ideally, we will see a bullish SFP print at that time and have price pushing back up toward the top of the TR. If price moves as such, but doesn't break yesterday's high, then it is much more likely to be redistribution and we will be looking for price to head lower after that, once it breaks the swing low. However, if it is accumulation, then we will see a target of $3640/90 and the greatest likelihood of that lower low being the second bottom in a double bottom pattern. A further breakdown a-la redistribution threatens the larger descending wedge that price has been printing since the January high and signals a likely retest of the 2018 low. But a move up via accumulation in this local TR would signal a clean bullish break through the green descending wedge's resistance and create a target of $3950, at this time, which is also the major resistance holding back a possible move up to the low-to-mid $5000s. H1 RSI is hugging oversold and the MACD is curled up toward the signal line attempting to push toward a bullish cross. H4 RSI is just a bit above oversold which means there's still room for that above-mentioned drop in price. So far, this recent drop's H4 volume has been significantly less than the volume on the SC leading into the blue TR. Daily volume is rivaling yesterday's and we still have more than 1/3 of the day left. Daily RSI remains within the descending wedge it's been printing since December. We are going to take a look at BTCUSD shorts, longs, and volatility during this morning's live stream, as well as USOIL (which is following the path I outlined a few days back), DJI, and maybe even some FOREX. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/5/2019)Good morning, traders. The big news yesterday was potential proof that the Mt. Gox trustee was selling Bitcoin on the BitPoint exchange, rather than OTC, through the first half of 2018 (www.goxdox.com). If so, it could help us understand why price failed to rally strongly enough off the $6000 level and ultimately fell through, after that level supported price for most of the year. But I'm not here to take a side or convince you one way or the other. That's up to you to decide. Instead, we are here talking about price today and it's not looking terrible at this time. Bitcoin's price bounce off ascending channel support overnight and is now attacking local resistance. There has been a significant fall-off of visible nearby supply on the orderbooks as well. However, we need to see a close above the February 4th swing high of $3439.46 on the H4. After that, we then need to see a close above the February 2nd swing high of $3485. Doing so will open the gates for a run toward $3570 and, of course, the January 25th swing high of $3657.89. If we can see price close above those swing highs, then the next step becomes the January 19th swing high of $3774. That's the step-by-step look for the shorter TF traders. The H1 chart continues to show volume picking up in the $3385-$3435 area. I am watching for a move through the descending blue local resistance to signal a long target of the $3465 level which is just below the EQ of the ascending channel that price has been printing since January 29th. However, this doesn't mean that price will reach that level. Demand appears to be weak so traders that intent to trade this level are going to have to be prepared for a lack of follow through. RSI is printing a nice ascending channel, so traders can also watch for a move outside of that channel to suggest price direction. The weekly 200 MA continues to show the support level just below price at around $3300 right now. This TF and the D1 also shows a clearly defined triangle which price bounced off of last week and, with follow through this week, we should be expecting to see a move up to the top of it around $3900-$4000, depending on how long that takes. The D1 descending wedge suggests a breakout to the upside as well. That breakout would provide a target of the top of the triangle, so there is good confluence on that move. A successful push and continuation through the triangle's resistance provides a target of $5200-$5300 based on the width of the triangle. Currently, this is close to the daily 200 MA, again another strong confluence area as it is also a supply zone that was created during the fall from the $6000s. Finally, if price were to hit that supply and remain strong, that would have it above the long-term resistance that dates back to the ATH. Such a move should then indicate a target of just over $15,000 based on the HTF descending wedge that began at the ATH. The D1 RSI has a lot of room to run as it is currently bearishly under neutral at 41 and is attacking descending resistance. It was also most recently strongly oversold (the lowest recorded daily RSI at 9.4) and has yet to return to overbought as we generally expect RSI to move. Interestingly, MACD is also showing signs of bullish divergence between November 27 and January 31, if price can continue to push up from here to confirm that January price point. The monthly chart is interesting. We can note the large drop from the $6000s in November, however we saw even greater volume in December but a very small candle spread and good lower wick. January saw volume comparable to this past summer, but again small candle spread. This appears to be suggesting that demand continues to show up and while it hasn't been enough to send price higher just yet, if it holds then supply will continue to get eaten up and we could see price moving higher and catching most traders off guard. The M1 wedge is the dominant pattern at this time and based on prior movement suggests that price should be moving sideways/up to challenge the pattern's resistance. This would give price another alternating touch of support and resistance thereby confirming the pattern. If that were to happen, then my expectation continues to be what it has been in that we would see price test that resistance, retrace a bit, and then push through the resistance. Looking at the daily chart, the move toward resistance isn't unthinkable. None of this guarantees that price will move up, and there is room within the local D1 descending wedge to drop once more. Because the D1 triangle hasn't seen a good rebound off the bottom other than the initial move, price dropping to the bottom of the small local descending wedge doesn't mean a bearish break of the triangle. Rather, it could just be signalling that the bottom is at that lower point if we see a strong move back toward the triangle's resistance. Ultimately, any move below $3300, and prolonged stay there, has me feeling much more bearish. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD D1/M1 charts (2/4/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to trade sideways with no significant increase in visible supply or demand on the order books. While Bitmex has continued to show stronger supply, spot exchanges are showing stronger demand. Traders should consider both but give more credence to spot exchanges as Bitmex's swap system and 100x leverage draw to it the gamblers (those with a stronger "casino" mindset) which means they are generally short-profit driven which leads to constantly jumping between buying and selling. Spot exchange traders tend to have a more definitive outlook and as such aren't prone to as much flip-flopping. Again, this is speaking in generalities. At this point, price has printed a perfect descending channel on the daily. The daily RSI has printed a descending wedge whose apex it is nearing, and volume has continued to drop as price has consolidated, which means that we should see a strong push by price in either direction sooner rather than later. Price is also treading along, just under, the steeper red resistance. I have outlined the horizontal resistance levels in blue as well. Currently, my expectation is for price to target the supply EQ around $4500 as noted once it moves through the channel's resistance. Traders must watch for price to target the channel's EQ and then its resistance before thinking of the supply EQ, however. These more local levels give shorter-term traders ideas of where to watch if going long or short in the near term. Yesterday's candle was very low in terms of volume and today's candle is already almost even, yet the candle spread is very small so far. This is something traders should watch through the end of the day. Based on the steep red resistance line, a successful move beyond it should have price targeting the January 19th swing high around $3760/80. We would need to see the candle closing above that swing high to protect price from a bearish SFP and signal further advancement. A successful close below the January 29th swing low at $3322 would have price likely targeting the $3200 area and failure for that level to hold puts $3000 on guard. The monthly chart is interesting. We can note the large drop from the $6000s in November, however we saw even greater volume in December but a very small candle spread and good lower wick. January saw volume comparable to this past summer, but again small candle spread. This appears to be suggesting that demand continues to show up and while it hasn't been enough to send price higher just yet, if it holds then supply will continue to get eaten up and we could see price moving higher and catching most traders off guard. The wedge is the dominant pattern at this time and based on prior movement suggests that price should be moving sideways/up to challenge the pattern's resistance. This would give price another alternating touch of support and resistance thereby confirming the pattern. If that were to happen, then my expectation continues to be what it has been in that we would see price test that resistance, retrace a bit, and then push through the resistance. Looking at the daily chart, the move toward resistance isn't unthinkable. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/1/2019)Good morning, traders. The battle between supply and demand rages on. Bitcoin's price dipped to near the bottom of the local TR at $3364 and has since rebounded back toward the top of it at around $3445 so far. The fact that much more demand is showing up at the bottom of the TR than supply at the top should have the bearish among us concerned. I'm still looking for price to target the blue box, but it begins looking even more interesting now as doing so all-but-guarantees to pull price through the orange wedge's resistance, setting up a target of the yellow resistance, depending on just how quickly price gets to that box. H4 RSI is now pushing through its own resistance as it sits at 49. D1 RSI is challenging its resistance as well. Both TF's RSIs have a lot of room for price to move upward which would likely catch retail traders off guard, if it were to do so, as they expect price to continue down from here. The weekly candle is currently printing as a bullish hammer. Traders should definitely be watching that candle. The higher price goes right now the more bullish the weekly TF becomes (i.e. much greater likelihood of a reversal from the current short down trend). The daily candle is looking pretty good at the moment, but with more than a third of the day left until it closes anything can still happen. The green resistance on the D1 chart, just above the orange, gives a secondary level that price needs to move through as well. Do we go up from here? Do we print a large IHS? Do we range for the next few months? Does price drop even further and stay down? Absolutely nobody knows for sure. Trading is speculation and, as such, it is inherently risky. The goal is to eliminate as much risk as possible by identifying multiple possible paths of price movement and then deciding what confirmations are needed to signal that price is likely headed in one of the directions you identified, as well as what confirmations are needed that you are the wrong way in a trade. Anybody that tells you anything else is lying to you. Period. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD H4/D1 charts (1/31/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday, I advised our Discord members that I didn't like how price action and volume were acting around the $3450 range and was looking for price to target the $3400 level. Price made one more attempt after I stated that to rise higher, but then printed a bearish SFP and found support around $3400 which is the H4 S1 pivot. The move down to that level aligns with yesterday morning's update which stated we would likely see a pullback toward $3410/20. Bitcoin price appears to be printing a very nice TR between $3370 and $3440. Currently, price is sitting just below the 15 minute pivot. If it cannot manage to close above that pivot and target the top of the TR from here, then I will be looking for it to make a push toward the bottom of the TR before doing so. H1 RSI is sitting at 41.5 and hasn't touched oversold yet, suggesting the latter scenario is likely. H4 RSI is still low, currently at 41, and continues to have room to run, suggesting that the current move upward has a good chance to target the H4 pivot at $3530 which then puts price into our blue target box. I am still watching the yellow zone to provide support if price can close above it. This would likely open up a bullish movement above the orange resistance which should then see price targeting the R3 pivot/yellow descending resistance around $3900/$4000. None of this is to say that price will be heading to a new ATH from here, only that if price moves in that manner then that is what we should expect. The yellow resistance is significant so we should generally expect to be rejected at that point since the trend has been corrective for over a year now. By that same token, a close above it should signal more bullish strength and general targets of $4400, 4800, and possibly $5400/$5600. As always, each successive target requires monitoring of price action and volume as it reaches the previous target. At any of those points, we can see price get rejected. Everyone on cryptotwitter and their grandmother is now calling for a possible Adam and Eve double bottom to play out as price continues to drift lower. This is a possibility that I discussed when price first reached the $3100 level. We do have H4 demand around $3240, but in order for price to retain the orange wedge, while targeting that demand, we would need to see price continuing to drift down for another week or so. Any faster than that runs the risk of dropping through the bottom of the pattern. Until that happens, I will continue to monitor the H4 RSI and watch for a push through the noted resistance. Overall, volume has continued to drop and because it's doing so in relation to the movement down since the bullish run up in mid-December, I'm more inclined to believe that it is the result of demand overcoming supply in this area (i.e. still correcting the impulsive December run up). Again, this doesn't mean that I am saying we will go straight up from here, only that at this time we may see a reversal toward the $4400 area before heading back down toward $3000 once more. The positive side of this, for those who want to see accumulation occurring, and ignore the idea of price reaching sub-$2000, is that it would mean we are currently near completion of the ST in Phase A, and if Bitcoin is creating that large TR then that signals stability in the market and alt coins should continue to provide opportunities to profit. But until we see a higher high, above the $4236 swing high from around Christmas, traders should remain suspect of accumulation. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD H4/D1 charts (1/25/2019)Good morning, traders. I know everyone wants to be bearish because it's easy, but that's also why so many retail traders lose money -- they want to take the easiest route. While I'm not stating that the lowest point is definitively in, I am going to say that current price action on the H4 and higher charts is looking more bullish than bearish at the moment. We have looked at many possible patterns printing over the past few weeks, but I only want to concentrate on two right now that we have discussed -- the light blue large descending wedge printing since the ATH and the orange descending wedge printing since December 24, 2018. The blue wedge has confirmed with two alternating touches to the top and bottom suggesting, at the very least, a target of the upper blue line. A break and close above that resistance should suggest that either 1) price is headed up into the next bull run or 2) a TR has been established and any movement below the 2018 low will be very short-lived and not very deep. In either scenario, there is a lot of money to be made. However, shorter-term we are watching the orange wedge. The significance of this orange wedge is that the lows are showing possible seller fatigue. We know this because they are printing lower at a much shallower degree than the highs. This is why descending wedges tend to be reversals. The target on a bullish break of this orange wedge is the green box on the H4 chart, which is based on the height of the wedge. However, I continue to hold that any break toward that target area should ultimately result in price targeting the EQs of the two upper supply zones noted at around $4500 and $5420. Also, of importance to note is the descending dashed white line which gives us mid-term resistance beginning at the $6400 level right before the drop. Volume has continued to drop significantly suggesting that a large move in one direction or the other is coming very soon. Earlier this week I stated that it is likely to be this weekend and it still looks that way, so traders should remain cautious. We can also see the various bull divs that have printed the past couple of months on the H4 and D1 charts. These would give credence to a move up toward $5000. However, as I continue to say, until it actually happens it is only a possibility. Because of price's current location just below the pivot and just underneath orange and dashed white resistance, and corresponding drop in volume, I would expect any possible move up to be explosive, catching traders off guard as they expect price to drop. As always, if price drops rather than pops, I am looking for the lower demand zone around S1 to provide initial support. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
INTC: Earnings, 5G and HFT Gap RiskIntel is moving rapidly to capture the 5G market, along with Verizon. This was discussed in detail in our recent annual Virtual Course, this time on Emerging Displacement Technologies for the Next Decade. INTC stock has been struggling at a support level, not moving down much but also without a strong pre-earnings run as many blue chip companies enjoyed. The reason is there are some institutions selling, as seen in rotation patterns and other institutions buying in accumulation patterns. Hence, the trading range pattern on the daily chart. For now the sellers have more dominance, but that can change. The Earnings report is due today after the market close. HFTs are likely to be all over it, which means there is gap risk, and they will trigger either way on earnings news.
NASDAQ:INTC
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
BTC/USD H4/D1 charts (1/24/2019)Good morning, traders. As you may be aware at this time, the VanEck ETF was pulled so there will be no decision in February. Normally, such news would've seen Bitcoin drop a few hundred dollars at the very least and if we listen to the most emotionally bearish among us we should've seen a drop through the 2018 lows. However, we only saw a drop of $40-$50 as price bounced off the EQ of the pink TR and, as of this morning, price has recouped that loss and moved higher. This doesn't mean it won't still dump, but it's encouraging at the moment. The smaller TFs are starting to show some signs of life, but we absolutely must see follow-through into the higher TF. As I mentioned to our Discord members and on Twitter, yesterday, the lack of a strong negative reaction to this particular news may be a sign that price is ready to mark up. Market participants should pay close attention to this pair's movement over the next few weeks. After yesterday's news, I told our Discord members that they should be watching the yellow and white resistance/support lines in RSI. A break and close above both colored resistance lines should indicate that price is healthy and strong which would suggest movement up through the overhead supply and an initial target of $3780. Price is currently attempting to move higher than the H4 McGinley Dynamic after testing the descending dashed line as support and RSI has moved above the white resistance. If price happens to fall, I will be looking for the green demand zone around $3390 to provide initial support. As I said in yesterday's update, price still needs to close above the pivot and POC on the H4 and D1 TFs. When it comes to the D1 chart, I'm still watching for price to breach the noted white dotted resistance. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTC/USD H4/D1 charts (1/23/2019)Good morning, traders. There hasn't been a lot of action over night. As discussed during yesterday's live stream, Bitcoin's current price position has supply and demand searching for enough liquidity to get a trend going. Yesterday's drop and $200 rebound appears to have led to the printing of a flag. If so, then the target is the same supply zone that rejected price about 4 days ago. Popping into that supply again may be enough to take out the remaining orders so that price can continue up. Remember, price has to close above the ascending dotted resistance to signal that continued upward momentum, but if it does then the target based on the widest point of the horizontal broadening wedge is a minimum of $240 above the point of breach. The full target would be $400 above that breach point. This means that we should expect price to reach the R3 pivot on the H4 TF, and possibly even the R5 pivot. As discussed yesterday, a breakdown of this wedge should have price targeting the S2 pivot followed by the S4 pivot. RSI moved above its resistance and then retested it as support. The D1 chart shows the large, possible flag, pattern still printing. There are three targets associated with that pattern. The lowest target would print a possible double/triple top around $4200. This target is based on a possible descending wedge that is printing as noted within the large, possible flag. The next higher target is based on the height of the descending channel that makes up the flag. The highest target is based on the height of the flagpole leading up to that possible flag. Notice the two higher targets complete within the supply zones noted. So there remains a lot of possibility at this time, but until price follows through the are only possibilities. As such, traders need to remain vigilant and should be spending most of their time bettering their risk management. As mentioned yesterday, what we really need to see in the short term is price closing above the pivot and POC (Point of Control) on both TFs. The POC is the orange line and the pivot is the bright yellow line. If it does, then the odds of reaching these much higher targets is significantly increased. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
Possible GBP/USD Short PositionSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Chart time frame - H4 Timeframe - 1-2 Days Actions on - A – Activating Event Currency Pair creating a Double Top . B – Beliefs Market will be rejected at @1.299 level and move towards the first Target 1 level @ 1.2835 FX_IDC:GBPUSD Trade Management Entered @ Sign up for details Stop Loss @ Sign up for details Target 1 @ 1.2835 Risk/Reward @ 3.3 Happy trading :) Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Short
by SMPTrader
BTC/USD H4/D1 charts (1/22/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to trend slightly lower but has yet to make a strong, continual move down. This morning we saw price drop, hit demand and rebound just under $200 very quickly. There is no doubt that moves like this are causing traders to lose money as their stops are taken out. The market is attempting to find/create liquidity to get price moving in one direction or the other. This has resulted the local white H4 TR outlined in this chart, as well as the much smaller pink TR. We can also see price wicks printing a horizontal broadening wedge (inverted symmetrical triangle) with higher highs that have been rejected at supply and lower lows that have been rejected at demand. This particular pattern tells us that, neither, buyers nor sellers are in control at this time. The H4 MACD is curled up and nearing a bullish cross while RSI has recently bounced just above oversold. As of right now, we have a recent bullish SFP on the H4 and a possible similar candle on the D1. There is still a lot of time left in the D1, so this latter bullish SFP could change but if it holds then we should expect some upward movement over the next day or two, but we ultimately need to see price moving above the noted overhead supply. Generally, we watch for the fifth swing in this pattern to determine direction. If that fifth swing breaks resistance or support and continues, then price should continue in that direction. If, however, it is rejected on that fifth swing, then we usually look for price to continue in the other direction. In this particular case, the recent drop and $200 rebound was the fifth swing and it was rejected at support suggesting price should continue upward now. Whichever direction price ultimately breaks, we should be looking for a minimum of $240, up to a possible $400, of movement beyond the support or resistance of the pattern. Traders need to understand that while this is what is generally expected with this pattern, the reality is that the pattern is not very reliable so risk management is of the utmost importance (or just waiting for a clean signal to enter). Price continues to flirt with the D1/D3 pivot, consistently pushing above but closing below it. The basic trendlines are outlined on the D1 chart. Price breaking any of these would suggest continuation in the direction of the break. We can see that this morning's move hit the EQ of the D1 demand, so the bounce should've been expected. However, what we need to see is follow-through. As mentioned above, the market is unsure at this time and is looking for liquidity in either direction to provide confidence. The first side to give this confidence will control direction in the short-to-mid term. Where does price need to get above to continue moving up? On the H4, we need to see price moving above the POC at $3630.51. On the D1, that would be $3809.16. These orange lines denote the area where we should expect to see the most local resistance and, therefore, provide good support if moving above them. To push above them indicates that demand is more dominant than supply. For now, volume and price action seem to suggest some sort of upward movement, but traders looking to limit their risk will usually wait until price closes above the pivot and POC on a TF before entering. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD H1/D1 charts (1/21/2019)Good morning, traders. We did see a bit of movement this weekend, which we will be taking a look at on this H1 chart. As I warned during Friday's live stream, traders had to be aware of the $3780 area as possible resistance, even though the target based on the triangle was higher. Sure enough, price was rejected at $3774 and then printed a bullish SFP at $3470 creating the possible second LPS (similar to Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2) which I suggested was likely to happen if price was rejected as it was. This is an important area because if we see upward movement from here, then the odds are most likely that we will see those upper $4000 and $5000 targets. Price appears to be building quite the support at the bottom of the blue TR around $3470. In terms of the local yellow TR, the recent bullish SFP appears to be a Spring (similar to the much more common Accumulation Schematic #1). We can see volume dropping off significantly from the SC suggesting that supply is exhausted. Price has moved out of oversold and is currently attempting to move through the McGinley Dynamic as it targets the pivot. As always, a close above the pivot should be considered bullish on this TF. We should expect price to print another LPS, most likely around the pivot, after pushing above it, and then an SOS at the dashed yellow line with a BUEC/LPS between that and the solid yellow line denoting the top of the TR. An SOS targeting the R2 pivot/descending green resistance line of the large flag should follow. Failure for price to follow through as described will likely see it targeting the S2 pivot at $3290 followed by the S4 pviot at $2930. This would print a Spring on the larger blue TR which should then see price pushing toward those $4000 and $5000 targets. I have outlined the possible two paths on the D1 chart, one in yellow and the other in orange. These are the same paths we've been watching play out for the past month or so. These appear to be the two most likely paths that price will take, however traders should not discount the possibility of price falling toward $2500 or lower. Currently, RSI does not appear to support such a move, but traders need to remain vigilant. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD H4 chart (1/18/2019)Good morning, traders. Nothing has really changed since yesterday. Today we are taking a look at the H4 Bitfinex chart. The red lines draw an almost perfect diamond pattern. McGinley Dynamic is currently sitting just above price which is bouncing off support at the moment. The targets based on the diamond are shown, as are immediate supply and demand zones. RSI has been printing a descending broadening wedge since December 20th, and within that an ascending triangle since January 14th, suggesting a break to the upside for price. MACD has been trending higher since January 11th and is nearing a bullish cross of centerline. However, it has slowed down quite a bit the past few days as expected due to the price consolidation within the diamond. Volume has been dropping off as a result as well. If price pops up, then I expect a test of the upper supply zone EQ at around $4120. Continuation above that level will have price pushing through the D1 50EMA. A close above that EMA should set up the $4800-$5600 targets. A move down should expect to find strong demand in the lower zone. A close below that zone should open the gates for a possible move down to $2450 if $2850-$2950 doesn't hold. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD H1 chart (1/17/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday we took a look at the larger TF and today we will check out what the smaller TF is saying on the Coinbase chart. I have outlined the black TR, red possible flag, and the blue diamond that is currently printing. We can see that price is nearing a decision point. Does it go up or down? Price is at the bottom of the TR and possible flag, suggesting support will give it a bounce. It is also printing a diamond. The breakout targets based on the diamond are shown in both directions with my belief being that price will target the S1 pivot if dropping and the R1 pivot if rising. Furthermore, targeting the R1 pivot should have price ultimately targeting the upper red resistance and, if this happens, then there is a lot more reason to believe price will push through it and head up to those higher targets that have been in play for 3-4 weeks now. However, if price heads down then it will break that flag and likely retest the 2018 lows. It doesn't have to, and we could realistically see a bounce from the S1 area, but with a move down like that it seems more likely to retest those lows. RSI and MACD are printing their own triangles in unison with price's diamond. We can also see volume dropping off pretty well over the past four days. With the price, RSI, and MACD consolidations occurring, a strong breakout is imminent and traders would likely do themselves a favor by waiting for confirmation of direction before entering a trade. As I have continued to warn traders, we need to see volume increasing as price increases to provide the fuel needed to push through that nearby overhead resistance. Failure to do so means price is most likely headed down. However, down may not be bad. If there is a move down from here to the ~$2900 target, then it could very well just be a Spring which would indicate bullish momentum incoming and we could expect a very nice move up. However, we would have to wait until that point and evaluate price action and volume at that time. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTC/USD D1 chart (1/16/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday's $100 move to the downside created a descending broadening wedge, out of the previous bull flag, which price broke out of this morning. Currently, price is testing resistance as support, and if this is successful we should generally expect continued upward movement. The 15 minute McGinley Dynamic aligns with the previous resistance and price has closed above the blue pivot, even pushing briefly above the R1 pivot before this retrace. Is this still wave 4 of the C wave? We don't know yet. If so, then we can expect to move to the lower pink box, most likely, before moving up with the next set of impulse waves. Currently, tensorcharts.com is showing significant visible supply on the order books immediately overhead. There is also strong visible demand immediately below price as well. Volume has continued to drop on the H1 suggesting that we may still be in the corrective wave. The next set of impulsive waves up should break through the volume downtrend on the H1/H4 TFs. As always, traders should be utilizing strong risk management and waiting for confirmations before entering a position. The H12 shows the recent upward breakout being rejected at the McGinley Dynamic, but it also shows higher lows and highs from the January 13th low. The lack of a green (white on my chart) D1 candle yesterday makes the January 14th bullish engulfing candle reversal suspect, so we must continue watching the daily closes. The bigger picture remains. We have what appears to be an accumulation TR without a Spring currently printing, denoted by the horizontal blue lines. We have the outer resistance levels denoted by the horizontal red lines (these are ultimately the levels traders should be watching). We have the impulsive move up from the ST. Volume has continued to drop since the PS, suggesting consolidation toward a significant move in either direction. We can see the descending green dashed line, which is aligning with the 50 EMA, and a move above that should see volume increasingly significantly. We can also see there is a possible support building along the ascending dotted black line. The blue zones above the TR note D1 supply. D1 MACD is curled up suggesting bullishness building, as well as having printed bullish divergence on the histogram between December 7th and January 13th. D1 RSI continues printing higher lows and highs so far. A move above the D1 pivot will likely target the upper pink box and then the descending green resistance. My belief remains that if this occurs, then price will hit that green resistance, drop back for a retrace, possibly using the ascending black dotted support to bounce from, and then push through the resistance. I have outlined this possibility in orange, and it would align with the expected movement of this TR completing without a Spring. A move to the lower pink box could still see price following this movement, but it also increases the chances of a retest of the lows at the lower red line. So, as mentioned above, traders need to remain cautious. We will discuss this in detail, as well as look at the smaller TF charts during this morning's live stream. As I have continued to warn traders, we need to see volume increasing as price increases to provide the fuel needed to push through that nearby overhead resistance. Failure to do so means price is most likely headed down. However, down may not be bad. If there is a move down from here to the ~$2900 target, then it could very well just be a Spring which would indicate bullish momentum incoming and we could expect a very nice move up. However, we would have to wait until that point and evaluate price action and volume at that time. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1