Get started

Tradingrange

BTC/USD 1D chart (12/17/2018)Good morning, traders. As mentioned was likely, during the live streams last week, we are finally seeing the pop that has been building. But we absolutely must see follow through. We still need to see a 4H or higher TF close above the December 9th swing high at $3633.20. That general area also happens to be the 4H pivot, so coming up through the bottom and closing above it would be bullish. A close below the December 15th swing low at $3179.54 would suggest further downward momentum. At this time, anything else is part of the "wait and see" game as price has merely hit previous diagonal support as resistance so far. Consolidation in or around this area should have price targeting $3500-$3550, I believe. This would have price printing a descending channel with four alternating touches, meaning we would normally expect a pullback and then push through the channel resistance. Price has, thus far, held its ground rather than dumping immediately as has usually been the case with these sudden strong surges upward during this corrective cycle. That doesn't guarantee that price will continue up, only that we are seeing a bit of a difference in this current movement which makes it more possible than usual that it will. Larger sell orders have been placed multiple times this morning but then pulled as price failed to fall significantly after the pump. In fact, demand support appears to be building underneath price. 1D RSI has pushed through the resistance at 32-33 that I've been mentioning, so a close above that could be bullish for the pair. We need to see price printing a higher high than December 12th's $3490 or run the risk of hidden bearish divergence printing on RSI. If you have been following me, then you know there are multiple bullish patterns that have been printing. These may now be on the verge of playing out. The most important at this time, it would seem, is the 1D red descending wedge. A successful close above the wedge's resistance should bring into play a target of $1150 above the point price breached that resistance. If that happens within the next few days, we would be looking at price making a move into the low-to-mid $4000s at the very least. However, today's move pulled price out of a slightly smaller descending red wedge whose support is the same but with resistance denoted by the descending red dotted line. This pattern would give us a target of $4145/50 as shown by the orange price range tool. The 1D pivot sits at $4660, so a close above that should prove to be significantly bullish for the pair. Don't forget, we have discussed the possibility of a trip down to the $2500/$2600 area as well, but the further down you continue to look, the greater the likelihood we won't make it that far. What this means for traders is increased risk. The question is, would the increase in profit justify the exponential increase in risk? Only you can decide that for yourself. A good rule of thumb is that if your reward doesn't increase 2x for every 1x of risk your trade increases, then it isn't worth it. The idea is that you should be looking for exponential compensation in order to take on increased risk. My EUR/USD long continues to produce profit, but the pair may be on the verge of a pullback. 1H DXY is bouncing off oversold as it is being rejected at the ascending wedge's support-turned-resistance. Based on that pattern, DXY should be targeting 96.16, but ultimately I'm looking for it to potentially reach 94.10 or so. That would mean more upside for other majors against the USD, or downside for the USD against the other majors (depending on how you would prefer to look at it). As always, this is a generalization and specific country USD pairs will be dependent upon the other country's economic situation as well. The Fed is set to speak on Wednesday and there is growing pressure for dovish comments, but not too dovish, as an attempt to provide support for the stock market's drop. Speaking of which, the DJIA gapped down on the open this morning but should find support around $23675. If it does not find support by that level, then the stock market is worse off than most believe. A bounce from there could see the DJIA target $24,300 before falling further. Traders should watch for 1D bullish divergence on the MACD's histogram to give a bit of a bump. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
SBUX: Shift of Sentiment Pattern Leads Gap Up to PlatformSBUX has now confirmed the gap gains by holding well above the trading range highs. This provides very strong support for the stock to continue moving upward. This daily chart of the stock shows a Shift of Sentiment™ Pattern with the Accumulation/Distribution indicator. The shifting pattern begins with the common gap down by HFTs in June and then the VWAP automated selling by the smaller funds to the final low. Then, the stock moves in a typical Dark Pool Pattern out of the low. Pro traders and HFTs gap the stock up in November on earnings news. Another platform is developing now above that gap which establishes more support at this level.
NASDAQ:SBUX
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (12/14/2018)Good morning, traders. Once again, it pays to watch the morning live stream. After the breakdown of the small descending triangle, I stated that the most likely scenario was to see price print an SFP around $3200, which is exactly what happened. Price is now consolidating toward the large red descending broadening wedge's resistance. If price pops up and through it, then price should target $3360/$3370. Failure to get that pop will likely see price targeting the $3000 area. I would not be surprised to see this latter scenario develop as there appears to be a concerted effort to push price down toward that level. Watching the order books, any time price gets to the point that it should pop, we see supply being dumped onto buyers while demand remains significant below $3200. One likely explanation is that there are large buyers in that area who are trying to get their orders filled. So, it is just something to keep in mind as price moves. Price is currently working off the hidden bearish divergence on the 1H TF. This clears the way for a possible move up as described above without the impediment of such a divergence to keep it from ascending in the near-term. The 1D saw a breakdown of the pennant that was printing. The target of that breakdown is $2950 which would pull price through the bottom of the descending wedge and back to the dashed red resistance line which began with the drop out of the $6000s. This would produce a strong bear trap if it plays out prior to December 16/17th. Interestingly, the ATH was on December 17, 2018. The conspiracy theories would run hard and long if that date this year were to produce the lowest point of this correction. There is a possible double bottom printing as well, if not the left shoulder and head of an IHS. RSI continues to flirt with oversold following recent bullish divergence. It has been printing higher lows toward the area of resistance around 32-33. Logically, since we are bouncing off the ascending channel's support, we would look for price to target the top of the channel but this is not guaranteed. Reaching that point also puts price at the red wedge's resistance. Don't forget that a close above that resistance sets up a target of $1150 above the point at which price breaches it. Additionally, reaching that target confirms the double bottom (if an IHS doesn't play out first) thereby creating a target of $5430. If the IHS prints, then I will update with a target based on that particular pattern as well. Don't forget, we have discussed the possibility of a trip down to the $2500/$2600 area as well, but the further down you continue to look, the greater the likelihood we won't make it that far. What this means for traders is increased risk. The question is, would the increase in profit justify the exponential increase in risk? Only you can decide that for yourself. A good rule of thumb is that if your reward doesn't increase 2x for every 1x of risk your trade increases, then it isn't worth it. The idea is that you should be looking for exponential compensation in order to take on increased risk. The DXY continued up overnight and into this morning but appears to be potentially topping out one more. I closed out my EUR/USD long yesterday for about 30 pips of profit after it was confirmed that price would not advance any further. I am now long EUR/USD once more. Stocks continue to have a bad time. As usual, early morning buying resulted in distribution the rest of the day. There was a bit of demand showing up toward the end of it, but not enough to create anything more than a doji for the 1D candle. Price now has a lower gap to fill as a result. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
AMZN: Topping Formation Incomplete with VolatilityAMZN has a topping formation which is incomplete at this time. Incomplete means that the stock has not broken through the strong nearby, short term technical support level YET. It may or may not. The stock can always shift sideways as BA did, as an example, to pattern out the excessive stock price uptrend created by speculation. Trading range corrections, as opposed to down-trending corrections, take much longer because the stock price remains well above the company’s fundamental value. The financials have to catch up to the price per share. For AMZN, there is also rotation, aka lowering of stock shares held by the Giant Dark Pools, evident in studying the price trend against the Accumulation/Distribution indicator. This increases the risk of sudden downside action. For now, buybacks and smaller funds buying on a dip are holding the stock up. Watch for increased volatility as a precursor to more downside action.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (12/13/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to move sideways as it retraced overnight and found support around the descending red previous resistance line as mentioned it was likely to do during yesterday morning's live stream. This morning, we can see price rising and, now, sitting around the McGinley Dynamic line and HVNs. Traders who were paying attention noticed the 1H bullish divergence in MACD and its histogram, noted by the blue arrow on price, and were able to profit by going long at that time. Currently, any move by price below the ascending dotted black line should have traders watching the December 11th swing low at $3292.65. A 1H close below that should have price targeting the blue December 7th TR swing low at $3210, with a 1H close below that signalling a likely test of the $3000 level. A close above the descending yellow channel that price is printing should have it targeting the 1H pivot at $3617.52. A close above that should leave price targeting the $3970-$4025 area. The 1H MACD is attempting a bullish cross at this time as well. The 1D remains the same with price printing an ascending wedge/possible bear flag within a large red descending wedge. Possible double bottom printing as well, if not the left shoulder and head of an IHS. RSI is just now peeking back out of oversold following recent bullish divergence. It has been printing higher lows toward the area of resistance around 32-33. Logically, since we are bouncing off the ascending channel's support, we would look for price to target the top of the channel. Reaching that point also puts price at the red wedge's resistance. Don't forget that a close above that resistance sets up a target of $1150 above the point at which price breaches it. Additionally, reaching that target confirms the double bottom (if an IHS doesn't play out first) thereby creating a target of $5430. If the IHS prints, then I will update with a target based on that particular pattern as well. The DXY jumped up this morning but appears to be potentially topping out. As such, it's been a volatile morning with FOREX USD pairs. I am currently long EUR/USD, but just in the short term for now as the market continues to digest this morning's ECB news, especially in relation to the recent FOMC interest rate remarks. Stocks continue to scream their weakness to anyone paying attention. Yesterday saw more of the same -- early morning buying, then distribution throughout the rest of the day. DJIA gapped up this morning but I don't believe that the market will see much bullishness out of it and I continue to see further downward momentum in the cards. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (12/12/2018)Good morning, traders. Yesterday, we discussed the descending channel and blue wedge that price was printing and, sure enough, the move through their resistance precipitated bullish momentum. Price then found resistance at the descending red line I mentioned as well. The target, based on the width of the wedge, should be $3486, and based on the channel should be $3500. Beyond that, $3995 would be the next viable target based on a larger red descending broadening wedge with the 1H R1 pivot sitting just above it at $4025. Depending on how long it takes price to reach that target, the next larger descending broadening wedge may take price to a $4540 target, which is also the 1H R2 pivot. Finally, that would pull price out of the large brown descending broadening wedge we have been talking about since last week which provides a target of $1050 above the point of breach. I will be taking a closer look at these patterns during this morning's live stream. A look at the 1H chart shows price continuing to find resistance at the descending red line, but consolidating against it at this time. This current level is a stronger area of support on this TF as the high volume node indicates, which also makes it a stronger area of resistance when price is sitting under it. RSI is currently sitting at 64.5, nearing that oversold level. But there's enough room left in it for a push up toward the lower targets at least before a retrace and potential attempt higher. We can also see increasing volume from the point at which price retested the blue wedge/black descending channel resistance as support. The 1D shows much the same as yesterday -- price printing an ascending wedge/possible bear flag within a large red descending wedge. Possible double bottom printing as well, if not the left shoulder and head of an IHS. RSI is just now peeking back out of oversold following recent bullish divergence. Logically, since we are bouncing off the ascending channel's support, we would look for price to target the top of the channel. Reaching that point also puts price at the red wedge's resistance. Don't forget that a close above that resistance sets up a target of $1150 above the point at which price breaches it. Additionally, reaching that target confirms the double bottom (if an IHS doesn't play out first) thereby creating a target of $5430. If the IHS prints, then I will update with a target based on that particular pattern as well. We could also see hidden bearish divergence print on MACD's histogram if price doesn't move above the December 4th swing high at $4034. It is currently printing a higher high on that histogram. So, we need to see continued strengthening of price movement upward until that point to avoid that divergence. Bitfinex BTCUSD longs have continued to rise as shorts are looking at a temporary bottom right now. The 1D volume and price action look very similar to April's low, and I will be discussing that during this morning's live stream as well. If it continues to play out as such, then we should expect a spike in price and volume today or, more likely, tomorrow. But that's a big "if" and highly speculative. The current swing low is sitting at $3210 on Bitstamp. A close below this level on the 4H or higher TF should signal a move down to $2900/$3000, which was the swing low region of the September 2017 correction. However, beware of a drop below and subsequent close above $3210 on a 4H or higher TF. That would print a bullish SFP that should send price upward, at least in the near-term. Price closing above the swing high of $3633.20 should signal upward momentum, but there has been significant activity in the $3600-$3800 range indicating resistance waiting in that area. So, traders would still need to remain careful. Because of this resistance, we could see a bearish SFP print which should send price downward, at least in the short term. I will be looking for price to target the 4H R1 pivot at $4025 if price closes above that swing high while keeping in mind the resistance as spoken about. The DXY is bouncing a bit this morning and stocks are looking to have a positive day as the major US indexes are up more than 1 percent in the premarket. Because Bitcoin is a risky asset, the bounce in the broader market should also provide a bounce in cryptocurrencies which would be inline with what I discussed above. However, it remains my believe that any bounce in that broader market is nothing more than a relief bounce and that stocks remain in distribution. That does not mean we can't see a new all time high, but I would rather that we didn't because it would encourage retail traders to FOMO in and the result would be the larger interests selling into them in one large swoop. This is known as a UTAD (upthrust after distribution) in Wyckoff terms. Remember, if DXY continues to strengthen today then that means that the major currencies, in general, should fall against the USD. So keep that in mind if trading FOREX. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (12/11/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin never could get going yesterday and isn't looking too strong at all today. As a matter of fact, we are currently seeing a bit of a sell-off as I type this. However, we should zoom out to the 4H chart and note that volume has continued to drop on the reactions and rise on the rallies since November 14th. Not only is the volume dropping on the reactions, but the candle spread has also been decreasing during those reactions as well. As I have pointed out numerous times, this is a sign that the current trend is exhausting itself. That doesn't tell us exactly when or where the trend will reverse, only that we should be aware it is growing increasingly likely that it will do so sooner rather than later in the grand scheme of things. So where does that leave us? The current swing low is sitting at $3210 on Bitstamp. A close below this level on the 4H or higher TF should signal a move down to $2900/$3000, which was the swing low region of the September 2017 correction. However, beware of a drop below and subsequent close above $3210 on a 4H or higher TF. That would print a bullish SFP that should send price upward, at least in the near-term. Price closing above the swing high of $3633.20 should signal upward momentum, but there has been significant activity in the $3600-$3800 range indicating resistance waiting in that area. So, traders would still need to remain careful. Because of this resistance, we could see a bearish SFP print which should send price downward, at least in the short term. I will be looking for price to target the 4H R1 pivot at $4025 if price closes above that swing high while keeping in mind the resistance as spoken about. Looking at the charts another way, there is the possibility that the ascending channel that price is in the process of printing at this time on the 1D could be a bear flag. A breakdown of this flag would signal likely further downward price progression. The 1H chart shows the TR that has been playing out for the past four days. Traders should be mindful of the descending black channel that price is attempting to print. A close above the possible channel's resistance would indicate likely further price advance, however we could see price continue below the SC before then as price prints a Spring which would most likely also print the bullish SFP I mentioned above. We would want to see low volume on the Spring when compared to the SC. As always, a Spring isn't required so we could see price moving through the channel's resistance from its current location as well. This would print an LPS at this level and we would be then looking for a move above the TR's resistance in the form of an SOS. The descending solid red line is ultimately what we would like to see price moving above to increase the likelihood that price is heading up rather than down in the larger picture. In that case, the noted possible double bottom would be the left shoulder and the head of the IHS. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
SPX: Weakest Technical Support = Bear Downtrend RiskOf the 3 big stock market indexes, the S&P500 or SPX is supported currently with the weakest technical support. This is NOT a fundamental support level. IF there is sudden panic due to some catalyst, and there are many potential catalysts waiting in the wings, this support can easily be moved through. A breakdown of this support level brings the risk for the end of the trading range bear market we've had so far and the start of a bear market downtrend.
SP:SPX
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
BTC/USD 4H/1D charts (12/10/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin's move out of the local TR yesterday had a lot of emotional traders on CT upset as they were/are sitting short. This move also pulled price above the descending channel that price has been in since the $4000s and back into the larger TR. Currently, price is hovering around the channel's resistance as well as the bottom of that larger TR. This should be the BUEC/LPS on the local TR as well as possibly the Test of the Spring on the larger one. Based on the blue symmetrical triangle and the flagpole leading to the current flag, price should have a move up to the $3760 area. This would bring it to the equilibrium of the larger TR and expected LPS zone. Price has followed the path I outlined Friday as I was looking for a move to the top of that channel, at the least, followed by "a Test back down toward the bottom of the TR at around $3475." Price wicked down a bit further to $3441.81 but, nonetheless, it has followed that path. This recent move down is on much lighter volume than the previous which would make it a successful Spring and Test, so the upside target mentioned above should be in play now. This being as it is, this could've just been an ST which means we may still see a Spring after the move toward the top of the TR. This would align with some of the EW calls for one more lower low toward $3000, but it may not be required. We will have to continuing watching price action and volume as the targets play out. The 1D shows price in the red descending wedge, suggesting a move back toward the top of it. That would give price a target that is similar to the patterns mentioned above. More importantly, a close above the wedge's resistance would set up a new target of $4950, and reaching that target would confirm the double bottom and it's target would be around $5430 as stated below. 1D RSI is just now attempting to push out of oversold once more. As pointed out last week, bullish divergence had been forming on it over multiple days, so this move up shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. The 4H chart shows price sitting just under the McGinley Dynamic. As always, a close above it increases the odds of continued upward momentum. Friday, I also mentioned how this move down could be printing a double bottom. This pattern won't be confirmed until we see the daily close above the swing high at $4409. So, until then, it is just a possibility. The target based on that pattern would be $5430, which takes price right up to resistance. What happens after that depends on supply and demand. As long as demand is greater than supply, price will press through that level which would bring up the 2018 TR as the target. If price cannot do this, then we will continue looking lower for the targets mentioned throughout last week's other analyses. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 30 min/1D charts (12/7/2018)Good morning, traders. As I discussed was most likely to happen, during yesterday morning's live stream, Bitcoin dropped down to the $3200/3300 level depending on which exchange you were monitoring. There wasn't any immediate pop back up though so price bears closer attention at this time. The 1D chart shows a nice descending wedge and the 30 minute shows an equally nice ascending channel. The 1D and 3D RSI are printing strong bullish divergence as well. A break upward through the ascending triangle's resistance should have price targeting the $3540 area. This will put it right back into the TR. But it must first close above the McGinley Dynamic on that 30 minute TF. This latest downward move has defined the very likely support level of a descending channel. If this is the case, then the expectation should be a move up to the top of the channel. The target mentioned above brings price to the channel's equilibrium which is the first expected resistance when trading channels. If this move down was a spring associated with the $3475-$4120 TR, then I am looking for the move up as spoken of, followed by a Test back down toward the bottom of the TR at around $3475. A successful Test should then see price making its way back up toward the top of the TR. The volume on the potential Spring was more than I would've liked to have seen, so a good Test (low volume) would be imperative to signal a successful Spring. We would then likely see a pullback at the top of the channel, creating an LPS. Again, we would be looking for low volume on that pullback. We also talked during the live stream about the larger picture and how this move down could be printing a double bottom. This pattern won't be confirmed until we see the daily close above the swing high at $4409. So, until then, it is just a possibility. The target based on that pattern would be $5430, which takes price right up to resistance. What happens after that depends on supply and demand. As long as demand is greater than supply, price will press through that level which would bring up the 2018 TR as the target. But, as mentioned, price must first close above the 30 minute TF McGinley Dynamic in order to set up a possible push through the ascending triangle. If price cannot do this, then we will continue looking lower for the targets mentioned throughout this week in my other analysis. Bitcoin price remains under pressure this morning and its continued attempts to pull itself away from the resistance line that's been keeping it in check since the drop from the $6000s have failed. Price has fallen through the black support line on yesterday's 4H chart which sets up a downside target of $1040 below the point of breach. This would put it between $2677 and the S3 pivot at $2725. Overnight a double bottom was seen on the 15 minute chart which saw price shooting back up toward that black line only to be rejected on its attempt to push through. Volume continues to pick up in the $3600-$3800 area suggesting demand continues to remain present there but the longer price sits in this area the more likely that demand is to dry up. In FOREX news, U.S. NFP numbers were released today and they were pretty ugly (as I have been suggesting was most likely throughout this week) at 150K v. the consensus of 200K. This gave our Discord members opportunity to capitalize and make money as price hit our USD/CAD and EUR/USD targets. I exited my long USD/CHF position near the 50% retrace, at about 25 pips profit, as I stated was my intention during yesterday morning's live stream. I then entered long in that same pair at 0.99079 after the report this morning, which was near the bottom of the drop (because I saw bullish RSI divergence on the 5 minute TF) and exited at 0.99307 for a similar profit. I then shorted at 0.99287 and am currently sitting at about 8 pips profit and expecting continued pressure on the USD as the algos and retail traders work out their positions relating to the news. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 15 min/3D charts (12/06/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin price remains under pressure this morning and its continued attempts to pull itself away from the resistance line that's been keeping it in check since the drop from the $6000s have failed. Price has fallen through the black support line on yesterday's 4H chart which sets up a downside target of $1040 below the point of breach. This would put it between $2677 and the S3 pivot at $2725. Overnight a double bottom was seen on the 15 minute chart which saw price shooting back up toward that black line only to be rejected on its attempt to push through. Volume continues to pick up in the $3600-$3800 area suggesting demand continues to remain present there but the longer price sits in this area the more likely that demand is to dry up. The current 15 minute pattern appears to be mimicking the previous double bottom from a couple of days earlier as denoted by the blue boxes. RSI has hit oversold and we can see price falling through the dashed red resistance line that has plagued it from the $6000s. Can it pull away this time with volume picking up at these price levels? We will have to wait and see. Liquidated longs continue to pull price downward with every attempt to rise as emotional retail traders FOMO in with heavy leverage. A close below the local swing low at $3629.41 should indicate further downward momentum. However, with RSI already being oversold, my thought is that if price drops below that swing low it will likely close above it creating a Swing Failure Pattern and this should give price a bit of a boost. But remember this is only the 15 minute TF, so it doesn't hold a lot of power in overall price movement. The 3D chart shows diminishing volume since 11/18. Playing the longer TF, until price closes above the descending green line, the general expectation should be continued downward movement. The S4 and S5 pivots from the previous periods sit at $3250, so that would be a good place to look for initial support on this TF if price were to fall further. We can see that RSI remains oversold since 11/15, but is attempting to create higher highs and work itself out of that territory. The challenge remains the same as was mentioned for the shorter TFs the past couple of days -- potential hidden bearish divergence. The most recent MACD histogram high was on 11/6 which had a price high of $6544, and that histogram is pretty short. With price as low as it is, we would need to see strong movement up to avoid that divergence. Depending on where price is when it makes a push up, it is more likely than not that we will see that divergence play out before price can get anywhere near $5200-$6000. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 4H/1D charts (12/04/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to ride the resistance line from the $6000s and is currently sitting just under the McGinley Dynamic. Not a whole lot has changed and the targets from yesterday remain valid today (review yesterday's linked analysis). The 4H RSI did break out bullishly from its descending wedge, though, and is currently sitting just under bullish at 46.5. I have drawn one more solid black line of resistance. A breach of this should have price moving definitely bullishly for the time. The 4H pivot sits at $4010 and a close above that should encourage more bullish activity. MACD is nearing a bullish cross, but if it does then it is likely that we will see hidden bearish divergence print sooner rather than later unless we see a flurry of buying activity that sends price above $4234.16 quickly. Moving above that level will pull price bullishly out of the green wedge and blue channel while setting up a showdown with the brown wedge's resistance. Remember, the latter is the one I am most interested in at this time, and a successful breach of it should have price targeting $5250/$5300. The 1D RSI is currently printing bullish divergence between 11/30 and 12/3, albeit a bit weak. As long as price closes at the day where it is or higher, that divergence should be locked in. A bullish divergence on the daily should have price rising a few hundred dollars at least. This would see price bullishly breaking out of the patterns noted above. We can clearly see a large flag printing on this TF so the expectation should be that price moves up rather than down. That doesn't mean that it is necessarily doing a full-on reversal, just that we should expect to see it play out like any other flag pattern at any other time in the market for now. The target based on this pattern's flagpole is the previous S4 pivot (blue price tool) at $4900-$4940. Doing so also brings price near the lower green price tool target based on the previous descending channel. OBV has continued to rise on this TF which is good as it indicates that volume and price are in agreement for now. All this being as it is, price finds the same problem on the 1D that it does on the 4H and that is the hidden bearish divergence that is printing. Two days ago, MACD's histogram was slightly higher than yesterday's and today's is much higher than the one from two days ago. So we see higher highs in the histogram and lower highs in price so far between 12/2 and today. This hidden bearish divergence can be avoided if price pushes above the 12/2 high of $4265 by the end of the day. If so, then price can likely avoid the larger hidden bearish divergence between 11/7 and today. But I'm not completely convinced there's enough strength in this short term hidden bearish divergence to overcome the longer term one mentioned, so traders should remain on their toes. The multitude of bullish patterns printing within each other along major resistance right now is the big plus on the bullish side. I really want to see a close above the 11/29 swing high at $4409.77 to feel a bit more bullish at this time. A close above the 1D pivot/1.272 fib extension at $4665 should have price facing resistance at the equilibrium of the yellow zone/1.414 fib extension at $4800 before heading higher to complete the targets. Lower targets, if price breaks down from here, are mentioned in yesterday's update. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 4H/1D charts (12/03/2018)Good morning, traders. Welcome to December. Will we see a Santa Claus rally later this month, similar to what traders are expecting for stocks? The monthly close showed signs of life just prior to it but the weekly didn't end up as bullish as I had hoped we might see. However, the weekly did set up a potential reversal due to the doji it printed. The candle is actually a pause and requires a good green candle this week to confirm it as a reversal. Failure of this week's candle to follow through in such a manner likely sets up some sideways movement at best for now, if not a further drop. Price has been hovering around the descending resistance line (dashed blue) that dates back to the fall from the $6000s, but is on the topside of it at this point. In doing so, price has printed a large blue descending broadening wedge. A close above the wedge's resistance in the next 24 hours should have price still targeting the $4760-$4770 area based on the patterns' targets, but I will be looking for it to reach the equilibrium of the lower gray zone at around $4800. It is also printing a smaller green descending broadening wedge inside the blue wedge. A close above the McGinley Dynamic (red moving average line) should signal further price advancement for those who prefer to trade based on moving averages. The 4H RSI is printing a descending wedge and a breakout through the wedge's resistance can also be noted as a potential signal that price is headed up. OBV has continued to rise in sync with the November 25th price low. We should also take note of the orange descending broadening wedge. Due to the price action on the large dashed blue descending broadening wedge from the fall from the $6000s, I am not convinced that the pattern's resistance is as significant as it once was. Rather, this orange wedge resistance may be the area to watch. A close above the orange resistance sets up a target of around $5300 (basically, the equilibrium of the upper grey zone). The 1D has three targets based on the channel, wedge, and possible pennant/symmetrical triangle noted. The channel and pennant target the $5025/35 area while the red wedge targets $5550. Traders should be mindful of the 1.272 fib level/1D pivot as it is the target based on the width of the pennant/symmetrical triangle and could result in a bit of pullback before further price appreciation. I will be looking at some shorter TF charts as well as the 1W and 1M charts during this morning's live stream. The 1M may be printing a descending wedge which should have price heading higher if it plays out. The key will be to watching the descending resistance line for a close above it. This month would require a close above $6000 or next month would require a close above $5400. The target would be $15,800-$16,250 depending on which month it happened. If, instead, price drops further, then on the 4H chart I will be watching for the ascending blue dashed line and $3700 to provide support. Failure of that area to do so will have me looking at that November 25 swing low at $3474.73. On the 1D chart, I will be looking at the $2975 area as that would be the target based on the size of the flagpole leading up to the possible pennant/symmetrical triangle that's currently printing. However, along the way the previous low at $3474.73 has to be watched as it is also the target of the symmetrical triangle based on its width, so we could see a bounce as a double bottom is formed. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTC/USD 15 min/6H charts (11/30/2018)Good morning, traders. We've made it to, yet, another Friday. There are a lot of ways to understand price movement and I'll be discussing a few today. CME Bitcoin futures expire in just a few hours and the volatility that I warned about yesterday is showing itself. So far, this morning's move aligns with what I discussed yesterday could happen if price moved out of the ascending channel it was in. I said that I would specifically be looking for a bounce in the $3850-$4000 area with the 15 minute S1 pivot located at $3875. Price hit a low of $3861 before bouncing. If you tuned into yesterday morning's live stream, then you know that at that time I was expecting price to follow this path. At this point, things are looking just as they should. You also may have noticed the Head and Shoulders pattern that printed, so even if you didn't pay attention or give much thought to what I said, it should've had you exiting your long position (if you're a short TF trader) or going short on the drop through the neckline. Ultimately, the target based on that H&S is around $3827, so there's always the possibility price could continue to that point. However, the current low on this drop is where the expectation was as of yesterday due to the demand present. We have bullish divergence printing on the 1H and lower TFs' RSI this morning and the price low tagged the 61.8% retrace of the move up from the candle that started the previous ascending channel's support at $3548.76 to the high of $4409.77. I will be looking for price to exit through this current descending channel's resistance and then to head upward. However, traders who choose to be in the market at the moment shouldn't lie to themselves about the risk they are taking. With CME expiry happening in a few hours, we should expect more volatility which can easily shakeout traders by hitting their stop losses with sudden price surges and/or drops. I have added a large green descending channel to the 15 minute chart that I will be watching. At the very least, I expect price to target the top of it. But a push through that resistance should set up an attempt at the double bottom target of $4765. The width of the potential green channel is about $390, so traders could also use that as a target once price breaches the channel's resistance. If price happens to move lower than the bounce, I will be adjusting the green channel to compensate for that movement. I have adjusted the expected outlined movement if price breaches the large descending broadening wedge on the 6H to compensate for this morning as I mentioned I would yesterday. A push through that wedge's resistance within the next 24 hours should generate a target of around $5700 based on the width of that wedge. During yesterday's live stream I discussed the possibility of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the 6H TF, which price is building pretty well at the moment. Current expected target is around $5330-$5350 if the pattern plays out. Don't forget to watch the monthly candle as well which closes at the end of the trading day, today, and the weekly candle which closes at the end of the trading day, on Sunday. The higher that price ends today, the more bullish that 1M candle potentially becomes, and the higher that price ends the week, the more bullish that possible reversal becomes. These two candles will likely tell you more about the pair's current state than the 1D or lower candles that everyone's concentrating on. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something nice for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD 15min/6H charts (11/29/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin printed a large bullish daily candle yesterday. As mentioned before, this doesn't guarantee a reversal is happening but it definitely adds to the case that is building for one. The pair has continued its ascent but is pausing at the descending broadening wedge resistance, as expected, from the beginning of the drop out of the $6000s. A breach of, and close above, this resistance would be significant for the pair. Somebody was serious about buying yesterday as they took out that 500+ BTC supply sitting at $4350 that I spoke of yesterday. If you were watching TensorCharts.com when it happened, you saw that it was bought and not simply removed. Price hit the red triangle target at the previous 15 minute R4 pivot around $4330 as it did so. Looking at the 6H chart, we can see price finding resistance at the pivot and three targets based on three different patterns. The blue target is based on the Adam and Eve double bottom at ends around $4765. The red target is based on the red descending broadening wedge and ends around $4745. Finally, the green target is based on the black dashed line descending broadening wedge and is about $1442 from the point that price breaches that wedge. If price were to breach it sooner rather than later, it shows that price would likely target the $5800 area. However, if price were to retrace a bit first, and then breach the wedge's resistance, obviously the target would be lower but it would still be $1442 above the breach. I believe these patterns to be significant in that the targets of the first two then set up the third. Traders must understand that patterns are never guaranteed, but we should always provide weight to them in our analysis when they appear. Price pushing through the large wedge's resistance is, itself, the most significant move. Until price actually moves out of the large wedge, we should look for support on any retracement at $4100 and the yellow zone that holds the lows from a few days back, as well as the lower yellow zone if price happens to fall further. This becomes more likely if price falls through the bottom of the 15 minute blue channel. Specifically, I would most likely be looking at the $3850-$4000 area for a bounce with the 15 minute S1 pivot located at $3875. The 15 minute chart shows price traveling within a well defined ascending blue channel. Price has recently bounced off channel support, and targeting the R2 pivot on this TF would put it at the top of the channel as well as the green and red target levels. With room to run on the 15 minute RSI, MACD curling up for a bullish cross after printing bullish histogram divergence during that channel bounce, and OBV continuing to rise this seems like the most likely avenue for price movement. Doing so should then likely see price finally retracing, but since those targets take price out of the large wedge, my expectation at this time would be to see that wedge's resistance/top of the black TR act as support on that retrace. The top of the black TR on the 6H chart would be a 50% retrace from those expected targets. The blue line gives you an idea of the general movement I would expect if the large wedge is breached soon. This could all change when/if that breach happens, depending on volume and price action. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something nice for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (11/28/2018)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin showed some bullishness overnight which shouldn't have surprised anyone. Looking at the 1D, we can see bullish divergence printed in RSI between 11/24 and 11/26-11/27. This has led to almost the largest daily move up since July. A few hundred more dollars of appreciation before the daily close would cement this. The question now is whether this is the beginning of a reversal or if it's just a brief reprieve before a trip to $3000. I realize many people are calling for a quick trip to $4300 or even $4800 followed by a drop down to below $3000, but if we hit those targets quickly, especially the latter, then such a strong move back down wouldn't support the bullish divergence narrative. Because this divergence happened on the 1D TF, we should expect more than a day or two of upward momentum. That doesn't mean price can't go down, just that as traders we should always recognize patterns and indicators that are playing out and their general expected relation to price movement. As I mentioned during yesterday morning's live stream, we need to see a close above the swing high at $4120 to even begin thinking about a reversal. That marks the confirmation level for the double bottom and will set up a target of the $4760 area which gets price right into supply. I don't believe we can see price initially pushing through supply at $4700-$4900 unless we happen to hit a strong pocket of shorts right below it. The expectation is usually to hit supply, drop back, and then push through on the second or third attempt, depending on just how deep the supply runs. This double bottom isn't as significant in the overall price movement of 2018 as the bottoms are very close together, but in terms of a shorter TF, it does provide fuel for a bounce at the very least and that's what we are currently experiencing. It is important to note that last night's move pulled price through the descending channel's resistance which has been present since the beginning of the drop, itself a bullish move and possible signal of a reversal. Further continued bullishness by the close of the 1W in four days would print tweezer bottoms which is a reversal signal. As an aside, price also broke out of the 1D symmetrical triangle. I'm not giving that pattern a lot of weight due to its very short printing, but the price target based on the size of that triangle would be around $4575. A push toward that level would align with resistance of the descending broadening wedge. This would provide a likely place for price to retreat, so any push through and close above it gives a possible reversal a lot more teeth. Finally, 1D RSI has finally moved out of oversold, which it has been in for two weeks, and is currently sitting at 30.34. The candle closing at this level or higher would be bullish in the short term, at the very least. I mentioned yesterday that I am expecting some resistance around $4340 and, today, Bitstamp is showing noticeable supply at $4280 and strong supply at $4350. This aligns with the overlapping 1D supply. I also discussed how OBV was looking weak on that TF but a move up through the end of the day would change that, and that's what happened. Daily OBV continues to print higher lows and highs supporting the current price appreciation narrative. None of what I said guarantees that a reversal from the lows is in progress, but it does start to build a case for it. Traders need to remain aware and employ strong risk management as always. I will be taking a closer look at these patterns and targets during this morning's live stream. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 1H/1D charts (11/26/2018)Good morning, traders. Welcome to the final week of November. Over the holiday weekend we saw Bitcoin find a low of $3474.73, which was around the equilibrium of the 1M zone, and bounce for almost $600 so far. That's about 17% with some possible higher highs lining up. I am looking for price to target the $4500 area, with some expected resistance around $4340 and a secondary target of the equilibrium of the grey box at $4800, if it can break the swing high of $4120. If price breaks the swing low at $3474.73, then it is much more likely to target $3000. The descending dashed red line is the most important local resistance that price needs to break in order to see price head higher. The 1W saw RSI print a low of 31.45, just above oversold. Currently it is sitting at 30.7 and the 1W S1 pivot is noted at $3200. Yesterday's 1D candle, coinciding with the weekly close, started well but ended under selling pressure meaning rather than immediate upside bias, we should be expecting some sideways movement as buyers and sellers battle it out. This is exactly what has been happening since yesterday. It doesn't mean that price won't go up, only that it will take more effort from the buyers if it is going to do so. The 1D shows price printing a channel within a possible a descending broadening wedge. The channel is about $1300 wide, so we should expect a target of $1300 above the point at which price exits the channel's resistance. Volume has tapered off on the drop suggesting that sellers are exhausted which is to be expected since 1D RSI has been oversold since November 14th. 1D OBV has continued to move higher, since its low on November 20th, as price has continued to drop. As always, smart money volume precedes price so the expectation is that we should see price reversing sooner rather than later. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTC/USD 15 min/4H charts (11/16/2018)Good morning, traders. It's finally Friday and the market is setting up for what could potentially be a wild weekend/start of the new week. Daily RSI is still below 18 and 4H RSI is just now knocking on the exit door of oversold. MACD on the 4H is nearing a bullish cross and the 15 minute and 4H OBV signals accumulation in the local TR. The local resistance appears to be around $5600, but we can see price continuing to consolidate toward it. The 15 minute TF gives us a look at the local TR and price is moving as expected within it. We can see that it printed its second LPS early this morning at the equilibrium of that TR while bouncing off the pivot and price has been consolidating along the PS level as we should expect. In doing this, price is printing what may turn out to be a pennant. If so, then the next move should be up in the form of an SOS targeting the R1 at around $5750/60, based on the width of that pennant. This is also the resistance area formed by the June low. Price is expected to consolidate around $5600 afterward to print the BUEC/LPS. Then we are expecting a move up to just above the R2 pivot at around $5960/80 for another SOS, and this is based on the height of the flagpole leading up to the pennant. You will also find that $5960 is the 4H S3 pivot. This is generally how we would normally expect this TR to play out. However, as mentioned above, RSI is ridiculously low and there are a barrel of shorts just waiting to get liquidated/forced to cover a few hundred dollars above the current price. As such, we could see a significant move up before any kind of pause. As I spoke of in yesterday's live stream, I wouldn't be surprised in this latter case to see price breach the 1D descending red resistance line before retracing to test it as support and then move up higher. We will take a look at that again during this morning's live stream. At this point, price has hit my first target area between $5250 and $5460. We may see a bit more downside, however, which would tap liquidity sitting just under $5000. If price happens to make it that far down, my expectation at this time is to see a good-sized candle as price rebounds out of that liquidity. The buildup of shorts on the shakeout should help fuel upward momentum. I expect to see a Test around the bottom of the 2018 accumulation TR ($5900 area) before continuing higher once buying picks up, but depending on just how much supply has been removed from the market, price may overshoot that level. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTC/USD 15 min/4H charts (11/14/2018)Good morning, traders. Binance completed the update to its platform overnight and Bitcoin price continues to feel pressure. With CBOE expiry later today, traders must remain vigilant if they are interested in trading this area as we could likely see price pop up at/near that time. However, we may see more movement down toward $6100 first. Notably, 1D OBV has continued to rise as price has dropped since the October 11th Spring/TR low. Remember, price follows volume, so with OBV continuing to rise it should be expected that we will see price do so as well. The 15 minute MACD is printing bullish divergence as I write this. RSI is dipping back into oversold as well. Price has now printed a likely descending channel from November 11th through today and price is bouncing off the bottom as it creates that bullish divergence. Traders should watch for a breach of the descending black dashed line and then the descending blue dotted line. Breaching those should have price targeting the top of the descending channel, and of course a breach and close above that should have price targeting the top of the black TR around $6450. The 4H chart shows the potential for price to fall to around $6025/30 before heading up based on the largest width of the blue descending wedge. If so, then it would likely stretch RSI strongly into oversold on many TFs thereby resulting in a strong rebound. If the 4H candle at that time dips below the October 10th low and then closes above it, that will create an SFP (swing failure pattern) and we should expect price to rebound. Ultimately, we are watching for price to push through the upper black horizontal line which denotes the top of the resistance area at the $6800 level thereby creating a show of strength (SOS). The expectation at that point would be retracement and consolidation around that upper black horizontal line (possibly printing a pennant) in the form of a "back up to the edge of the creek/last point of support" (BUEC/LPS) followed by another SOS above $7000. If that SOS-to-BUEC/LPS prints a pennant around $6800, then at this time we can expect a target of around $7600 when price breaks the pennant's resistance. This would complete the complex fulcrum and should signal the bull market is likely in effect. Remember, a breach of $8500 gives us the higher high that we've been waiting for and would likely be a strong buy signal to many traders sitting on the sidelines. After that, $10,000 becomes the next signal, and then of course the February high around $11,780. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
6
NTAP: Earnings Stock of the Day NetApp was one of the earliest companies in Cloud Technology. It had a stellar rise in price in 2018 but is now at risk of a topping formation. Data Storage is still a growth sub industry of the Cloud Industry. However, NTAP has gone beyond its fundamental values for 2019. Support levels are on the chart. Bounces should be expected around these price levels. This is an incomplete top. The stock could move sideways in a trading range rather than down. To sell short, the stock must break to the downside from here.
NASDAQ:NTAP
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader