BTCUSD 15 min/4H charts (10/30/2018)Good morning, traders. I am still dealing with technical issues with our Internet service provider this morning and will most likely not be able to stream until the tech gets here later this week. I will attempt to record and upload daily videos if possible until it is fixed. After yesterday's move, price has continued doing what it has done best for the past few months - range. As mentioned yesterday, we are watching volume and price action as an indication of where price may head in the near-term. Ultimately, price has found support on the 4H S3 pivot and resistance at the S2 pivot. While volume remains low, we can see that it is increasing, but OBV, specifically, isn't convincing at this time. What is noticeable is that the drop bounced off the July triangle's descending resistance-turned-support line. We can also see that the 4H RSI has continued to remain oversold for more than 24 hours. Shorts are up only slightly now, compared to where they were prior to yesterday's move, which is a testament to the amount of supply that has been removed from the market. Remember, the goal during accumulation is to remove as much loose supply as possible. This means creating situations that cause the weakest hands to sell what they are holding into the hands of the C.O. In doing this, the C.O. ensures that price will move up with as little resistance as possible when the time comes for price to emerge from the corrective cycle. This is especially necessary with the length of time this market has been correcting. All upward movement is met with cries of "sucker's rally" and will most likely continue as such until price breaches the February high at around $11,780. As most retail traders are more concerned with buying the absolute lowest price rather than perfecting their risk management, this gives the larger picture trader/investor the opportunity to get in before the FOMO kicks in.
Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me.
For traders interested in looking at smaller TFs, it would likely be best to just concentrate on the noted local 4H pivots. As mentioned above, price is bouncing between the S2 and S3 pivots. A break in either direction should be an indication that price will be continuing in that direction. However, until price actually breaches and closes above the blue pivot, currently sitting at $6411, all movement should be considered suspect. Those desiring to zoom in even more should take note of the blue 15 minute pivot sitting near the top of that local TR at $6298. As with the larger TF, a breach of this pivot from below, and close above, is considered bullish. This would set up a target of the R1 pivot at $6388 which almost lines up perfectly with the previous period's S1 pivot. This indicates that a bullish breach and close above it would be significant and continued upward movement should be expected with that level providing stronger support.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
