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XRP - Still On The Track For Explosion During this week XRP made a new local high at $0.93, after that had a few % drop (as expected) to re-test the bottom of the triangle, from where it has broken out of. Next we need to (and we eventually will) brake above the green decending trend line where i also expect a re-test of some kind as this trend line is more than a year old at this point. After eventually breaking above green trend line, which can happen in a bling of an eye sometimes, we should expect a rally to the upwards (like Zilliqa did few days ago), where we also need to watch major fibonacci retracement levels extended over 2021 rally. These are 0.702 ($1.53) and 0.786 ($1.65). Breaking above these and we should be ready to go into a next trading range which i've described not long ago. I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be Well. BINANCE:XRPUSDT
Long
by AVA37
Mastering The Wyckoff Method of Technical Analysis Introduction: ----------------------------------------------------------- In the time period of April in 2021 Bitcoin reached its local high of roughly US $65,000 per coin, shortly after when May came along many social channels quickly lit up with the now infamous “Wyckoff Distribution Schematic” (This was one popular video that described it here: www.youtube.com), and shortly after BTC came crashing down back to the $30,000 region playing this schematic almost perfectly. I myself was trading Bitcoin using the Wyckoff Method at this time, and I was introduced to a plethora of new traders and investors trying to understand the complicated Wyckoff method, but the fact of the matter was, many were sharing or educating others in incorrect ways to use this method. From this day I took more of an interest in educating others in the Wyckoff Method, and below I am going to pick apart, introduce and help you master some of the key concepts used in this method of analysis. Bitcoins Chart March-May 2021 Read more about the Crash in 2021: www.aljazeera.com Who is “Wyckoff”?: ----------------------------------------------------------- Richard Demille Wyckoff (November 2, 1873 – March 7, 1934) was considered one of the five “titans” of technical analysis, along with Dow, Gann, Elliott and Merrill. At age 15, he took a job as a stock runner for a New York brokerage. Afterwards, while still in his 20s, he became the head of his own firm. He also founded and, for nearly two decades wrote, and edited The Magazine of Wall Street, which, at one point, had more than 200,000 subscribers. Wyckoff was an avid student of the markets, as well as an active tape reader and trader. He observed the market activities and campaigns of the legendary stock operators of his time, including JP Morgan and Jesse Livermore. From his observations and interviews with those big-time traders, Wyckoff codified the best practices of Livermore and others into laws, principles and techniques of trading methodology, money management and mental discipline. Wyckoff's research claimed many common characteristics among the greatest winning stocks and market campaigners of the time. Wyckoff also has techniques he believed offered advantages when markets were rising or falling (bullish and bearish). Wyckoff offered a detailed analysis of the "trading range", a posited ideal price bracket for buying or selling a stock. One tool that Wyckoff provides is the concept of the Composite Operator , another is Volume based analysis . Who is the Composite Operator / The Composite Man?: ----------------------------------------------------------- “…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2) Based on his years of observations of the market activities of large operators, Wyckoff taught that: The Composite Man carefully plans, executes and concludes his campaigns. -The Composite Man attracts the public to buy a stock (financial asset) in which he has already accumulated a sizable line of shares by making many transactions involving a large number of shares, in effect advertising his stock by creating the appearance of a “broad market.” -One must study individual stock charts with the purpose of judging the behaviour of the stock and the motives of those large operators who dominate it. -With study and practice, one can acquire the ability to interpret the motives behind the action that a chart portrays. Wyckoff and his associates believed that if one could understand the market behaviour of the Composite Man, one could identify many trading and investment opportunities early enough to profit from them. Above excerpt from: school.stockcharts.com Many traders and investors who follow the Wyckoff Method treat the Composite man as a real entity, for Cryptocurrency holders this might be seen as a whale who controls the price. Wyckoff himself did not find it necessary to define a importance between the Composite man being an imaginary being, a creation of one's own mind or a real entity, but defined an importance towards “Thinking” like the Composite Man, by thinking like a “Large Operator” we change our Psychology. But what does this mean? In the book titled, “The Compound Effect” by Darren Hardy (Founder of Success Magazine) there is a section titled “Find Your Fight” in Chapter 3, in this section Darren describes how hate is often as strong as a motivating force as love, but why is this relevant? A person who is in love may do crazy things, but so will a person who is consumed by hate, as both are powerfully motivating forces. By creating a “Enemy” (Someone to hate) our mindset changes to a defensive manner, we are now in “Battle” with our Enemy. Here is a quote from the book, which is one of my favourites: “Contrary to social correctness, it can be good to hate. Hate disease, hate injustice, hate ignorance, hate complacency, and so on. Sometimes identifying an enemy lights your fire.Some of my greatest motivation, determination, and dogged persistence came when I had an enemy to fight. In history, the most transformation stories and political revolutions came about as a result of fighting an enemy. David had Goliath, America had the British. Luke had Darth Vader…” And as traders; we have The Composite Man… A great article on the Composite Man can be located here for further education: www.wyckoffanalytics.com Wyckoff's "Five Step Approach": ----------------------------------------------------------- The Wyckoff Method involves a five-step approach to stock selection and trade entry, which can be summarized as follows: 1. Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market. Determine what the current characteristics of the price structure and Supply & Demand are, (are we in a Uptrend, Downtrend or Sideways) by getting a general idea of the Price Structure, Sentiment & Supply and Demand we can determine if we want to be in a long or short trade, or no trade at all, and what the probable future direction of the market may be. Refer to Section “Market Phases & Cycles” below to understand this further. 2. Select stocks in harmony with the trend. In an uptrend, select stocks that are stronger than the market. By selecting assets moving with the Primary Trend, we are increasing chances of success. (For example, if the dominant asset in Crypto, Bitcoin is on a strong uptrend is it fair to assume that you are going to have more success trying to long other Cryptocurrencies which are highly “correlated” and likely to follow in that direction. Financial Assets that “decorrelate” and show stronger increases during uptrends and smaller decreases on pull backs may be showing signs of being stronger then the market as a whole (long position), for shorts we are looking for Assets that are showing weakness and stronger decreases then the market as a whole. 3. Select stocks with a “cause” that equals or exceeds your minimum objective. Every action, has a reaction, every cause, has an effect, this statement basically means that if you are going to enter the market and take a position, look for assets that have a rational and reasonable cause for you to reach your target objective. A great example is using Price Target Measurements when trading Chart Patterns, each Chart Pattern is the cause, and the Price Target is the effect. If there is a Cause, but no Effect, then it is a potential sign of weakness. Please see “Wyckoff Laws” below for more information. 4. Determine the stocks' readiness to move. Use a pre determined system to determine how close assets are to entering the Mark Up or Mark Down Phases. Find the right system to see when a asset is about to Uptrend or Downtrend. Use the 9 Buying & Selling tests, aswell as the Wyckoff Schematics explained below to understand this concept further. 5. Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market index. Financial Markets are highly correlated, this means that we want to be timing our investments and trades with the Leading Market Assets or Index’s (A Index is basically a grouping of the Top Stocks or Companies in that Industry, for example, SP500, AU200). Why do we want to time? Lets use Bitcoin as a example. Sometimes Bitcoin is almost correlated to 80-90% of the Stock Market, that means the price moves almost in sync, so by watching the price movements and analyzing the Stock Market we can also get clues on the direction of the asset we are trading. If Bitcoin is moving up, but the Stock Market is heading down, and the correlation is HIGH, we can assume that the upside move may not be likely to continue. Market Phases & Cycles: ----------------------------------------------------------- According to Wyckoff, the market can be understood and anticipated through detailed analysis of supply and demand, An idealized schematic of how he conceptualized the large interests' preparation for and execution of bull and bear markets is depicted in the figure above. The time to enter long orders is towards the end of the preparation for a price markup or bull market (accumulation of large lines of stock), while the time to initiate short positions is at the end of the preparation for price markdown. Also note the different Phases of the Market. Before we continue below, please click on the image below for my basic introduction to Market Phases & Cycles, which is an important topic to have an understanding of before continuing onto Wyckoff Schematics. This is also relevant to understand Cause & Effect mentioned below. Notice how each Cause has an Effect! To simplify the concept - Markets move in cyclical patterns, with a full cycle usually having Accumulation > Reaccumulation > Distribution >Redistribution, there can also be Micro trends within the cycle. Uptrends (HH, HL), Downtrends (LL, LH) and Sideways movements form the price structures which make up the Phases of the market, which in turn create the Cycles. Three Laws of Wyckoff ----------------------------------------------------------- Wyckoff Analysis is fundamentally based off the Three Laws of Wyckoff, which can be found and recognized across many different types of Analysis, the Laws help give insight to our analysis and choice of buying/selling. 1. Supply vs. Demand --------------------------------- Wyckoff states when demand is greater than supply, prices rise, and when supply is greater than demand, prices fall. When sellers outweigh the buyers, the market is dominated by Supply, a large supply of an asset to sell, means greater selling pressure and a higher probability of a decrease in price. A sign of Demand (Buying Pressure) is a shortage of Supply, in a Cryptocurrencies case it would mean that the demand of buyers on exchanges outweighs the supply available for purchase on exchanges. As the amount up for purchase quickly falls to a low number the greed of participants drives them to want to pay higher prices for an asset. When buyers outweigh sellers, the latter occurs with a higher probability of increase in prices. A sign of Supply (Selling Pressure) is a shortage of Demand, in a Cryptocurrencies case it would mean that the demand of buyers on exchanges under weighs the supply available, institutional investors and funds hold majority share of the SUPPLY and with no interest in buying from the retail participants we see investors (sometimes impatient or fearful) become sellers in anticipation of there being no increase in price in the short term (relative to their perspective). Using this secondary chart below, we can clearly see the "Demand (Green)" and "Supply (Red)" areas of Siacoin SC. We can see that both the Demand & Supply areas are respected and have strong reactions, and with patience we will see if the dominating factor on Siacoin right now is Supply or Demand, but considering some of the points I will go into below so far its looking like it is shifting into the favour of demand currently with a visit to the 0.5 (50%) of the Trading Range. Take note of the small abbreviations at the start of the TR (Trading Range) for now - see Wyckoff Schematics section later. Other ways to analyze Supply & Demand in Cryptocurrencies are more literal - for example you can literally go onto the Blockchain and see the wallets of coins, how many each holds, what % of the Supply is owned by Siacoin itself, the amount of wallet holders, I will not go into this type of analysis in a detailed manner as it is not my expertise. 2. Effort vs. Result --------------------------------- Wyckoff states that every effort should lead to a result in the financial markets. Here is a example of a “Effort Vs Result” in a Trading Range (Parallel Channel) using Volume & Price Analysis (Please Click the Image, for Further Educational Idea) This statement is applied to our charts by using data on Trading Volume. When we see abnormally large trading volume at key areas on the chart, we can usually expect a continued move in that direction, if the Effort produces no result though, that abnormally large trading volume can give us a sign that the participants betting on the market to move in that direction have not gathered enough momentum to do so (Marked in Light Blue), which leads to them being trapped (Marked in Dark Blue) and then a reverse in the opposite direction in price (Marked in Purple). Effort Vs Result can also be interpreted in a number of ways, lets analyse the above Siacoin SC chart using this concept: In the first image, the Trading Range is created, once at the lower range, volume decreased (this was not just a singular occurrence, with the whole Crypto market having similar low volume and "choppiness" but within this low volume area we can see there was two larger red volume bars, these two bars showed us a increase in sellers in this area, (An effort) but no Result (further Decrease on the next candles) this gives us a sign that the sellers may not be the dominant force now (A “Divergence) leading us to test the previous dominant force area above as supply. This then led us to test the upper Trading Range, where the exactly same thing happened in the opposite. In the 3rd image, we can finally see that the effort of the buyers is now leading to zero result, the trading range is starting to drag out and the volume of sellers is dropping off, in a REAL breakout the volume should continue to increase with the prices. We can see below that never happens here. As the images progress the Supply is obviously Dominant. This leads us to the current chart, where we can see that now the sellers are losing momentum and the buyers have just stepped in. (See the volume?) In the current trading range on SC (Siacoin) we can see quite a lot of abnormally large green bars at the upper range, this shows us that even though a large amount of buyers did in fact come into play here, the upper ranges dominant force was the Supply, and prices then headed towards the lower range.We are now in the process of “Testing” that lower range for Demand. So far the circled Red Bars (in the First chart, the original chart of this post) show us the sellers may be trapped locally. 3. Cause vs. Effect --------------------------------- Wyckoff states that every cause in the market leads to a proportional effect. The market has phases, such as Accumulation, Reaccumulation, Distribution and Redistribution. Each phase should have a "Effect" to match the cause, Accumulation has a Markup, aswell as Reaccumulation, And Distribution and Redistribution are followed by a Mark Down. The phase is the cause, the mark up is the effect. Click on this link for a quick infographic on the Market Phases (Consider each phase as a Cause) which then should have an Effect (Mark Up or Mark Down Phase), this creates the “Market Cycle” and all markets move in cycles: ibb.co This is similar to how a Bull Flag has a target measurement (Mark Up) and a Bear Flag has a target measurement for the downside (Mark Down). For more information on Flag Patterns click the below image, notice on the bottom right picture how the Flag has a measurement which is represented by a extended line, the previous line and the Flag is the Cause, the extended line pointing upwards is the Effect in this case: In this case, if we see a breakout to the upside of this current trading range on SC Siacoin (the Cause) we can assume the Effect will be a strong breakout above the range leading to Mark Up Phase, otherwise the Cause has no Effect, in this situation meaning the range might fail and break downwards. This is similar in a way to Effort vs Result explained earlier, For every Effort, there should be a Result, for every Cause, there should be an effect. Wyckoff Schematics ----------------------------------------------------------- A trading range (Sideways Movement, Zig Zag) shows us an equilibrium between buyers and sellers, and the Wyckoff Theory & Schematics give us clues to which probable direction the price may head out of the horizontal moving price structure. Each Trading Range can be an important Phase in the larger Market Cycle, giving us potential clues and hints within the overall trend. The Wyckoff Schematics help us identify the different between Accumulation and Distribution Trading Ranges (Or Reaccumulation or Redistribution) - In a Trading Range the price Zig Zags up and down until eventually a breakout occurs, using the Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic we can see there are some clues in the similarities of the chart and the schematic that tell us Siacoin may be ready to at least test of the upper bounds of the Trading Range. It is important to note that most Trading Ranges start with obvious characteristics, which we will delve into further below, the first characteristics of the Trading Range (TR) help us identify that we are now moving in a sideways trend: When paired with the Wyckoff 9 Buying and Selling Tests - the Wyckoff Schematics are a great tool to help measure potential entries, exits, risk and to read the price movement in general. There are four types: Accumulation , Reaccumulation , Distribution & Redistribution. And each Trading Range is Analysed in 5 key phases: By splitting our Schematics into 5 key phases, the characteristics become easier to recognize and identify.Remember this when moving forward in this section. Phase A: The trading range (TR) is created (example above) Phase B: The Supply & Demand of the TR is tested Phase C: Deviation outside TR or Final point before reversal Phase D: The new trend begins Phase E: The trend continues In phase D & E, the obvious “Change of Trend” is evident, refer to this infographic below and you can see how a trend contains Higher Highs, Higher Lows (HH, HL) or Lower Lows, Lower Highs (LL, LH); we will come back to this soon: 1. Accumulation : --------------------------------- In accumulation, the shares purchased outnumber those sold. There are roughly 9 characteristics of an Accumulation Range: 1. PS (Preliminary Support) the first Support area that was lost, creating the upper bound of the TR. 2. SC (Selling Climax) the climactic action that is bought up quickly creating the lower bound of the TR. It is a strong example of Effort vs Result usually, with abnormally large selling volume, but no further downside. 3. AR (Automatic Rally) a low volume, quick reaction visiting the other side of the TR, usually indicating short covering. 4. ST (Secondary Test) a secondary test of the initial Demand Area created by the SC. 5. Spring (Fake Out) & Test or LPS (Last point of Support). Spring is usually a great example of Effort vs Result. Spring is then confirmed by a test of Support. LPS (Last Point of Support) occurs when price revisits the recent Demand (Support) area, usually a former Resistance. The term may be used in a plural manner, with multiple LPS forming the Higher Lows that make up the basis of a market trend. 6. JAC (Jump Across the Creek) the Creek is an imaginary line created by the previous downtrend (similar to a Moving Average), we want to see the price “Jump” across the creek. 7. LPS (Last Point of Support) occurs when price revisits the recent Demand (Support) area, usually a former Resistance. The term may be used in a plural manner, with multiple LPS forming the Higher Lows that make up the basis of a market trend. 8. SOS (Sign of Strength) is an abnormally large volume signature upwards price movement which confirms the Spring or LPS. 9. BU/LPS (Back Up / Last Point of Support) occurs when price revisits the recent Demand (Support) area, usually a former Resistance. The term may be used in a plural manner.The SOS & LPS together form the Basis of a Uptrend, see this image for reference: ibb.co . The final LPS before leaving the Trading Range should start the Uptrend.The LPS can sometimes move to the 50% of the Trading Range. We should then enter the Mark Up phase as described at the start of this article. Remember; Accumulation is the Cause, Markup is the Effect. Examples & Links : Accumulation Schematic #1: school.stockcharts.com In this schematic, the Spring is located in the end of the TR, showing trapped sellers. Accumulation Schematic #2: school.stockcharts.com In this schematic, there is no Spring action, instead the price starts moving upwards from the LPS Area (Last Point of Support), the Spring (in this case, ST) is located at the middle of the TR, showing trapped buyers. Example of Accumulation #1 Analysis (Click image, press play to see the result!): Example of Accumulation #2 Analysis: 2. Reaccumulation : --------------------------------- After Accumulation, comes Reaccumulation. Where after a extended upside move, a repeated sideways movement occurs which leads to another extended upside move. ReAccumulation is known also as a Trend Continuation. The characteristics are almost identical to Accumulation, except the previous price movement leading up to the trading range is upwards : Here are the characteristics explained : 1. PS (Preliminary Supply) the first selling area creating the Trading Range. 2. BC (Buying Climax) the climactic action that is sold up quickly creating the upper bound of the TR. It is a strong example of Effort vs Result usually, with abnormally large buying volume, but no further upside. 3. Shakeout (Fake Out to the downside trapping sellers) (I have marked this as SC, to simplify the process as a Shakeout is quite similar in its characteristic. 4. AR (Automatic Rally) a low volume, quick reaction visiting the other side of the TR, usually indicating short covering. 5. ST Area (Secondary Test Area) a secondary test of the initial Demand Area created by the Shakeout. 6. Spring (Fake Out) or LPS (Last point of Support) A Spring occurs when price falls underneath the Trading Range, triggering stop losses and usually inducing investors to Panic Sell, (this is the most profitable area to buy). Spring is then confirmed by a test of Support. Spring is usually a great example of Effort vs Result. LPS (Last Point of Support) occurs when price revisits the recent Demand (Support) area, usually a former Resistance. The term may be used in a plural manner, with multiple LPS forming the Higher Lows that make up the basis of a market trend. 7. JAC (Jump Across the Creek) is when the price “Jumps” across the Trading Range, giving us a final clue before the breakout occurs. The “Creek” is an imaginary line formed from the projected path of the previous price swing highs, this can be used similar to a Moving Average. 8. SOS (Sign of Strength) is an abnormally large volume signature upwards price movement which confirms the Spring or LPS. 9. LPS (Last Point of Support) occurs when price revisits the recent Demand (Support) area, usually a former Resistance. The term may be used in a plural manner.The SOS & LPS together form the Basis of a Uptrend, see this image for reference: ibb.co . The final LPS before leaving the Trading Range should start the Uptrend.The LPS can sometimes move to the 50% of the Trading Range. We should then enter the Mark Up phase as described at the start of this article. Reaccumulation = Cause, Mark Up = Effect Examples & Links : It is important to note that Reaccumulation can appear as Accumulation, in the image below we can see that MANAUSDT looked like Accumulation Schematic #2, yet was actually Reaccumulation due to the previous uptrend. And in this example Reaccumulation looked exactly like Schematic #1 of Accumulation! Reaccumulation Schematic #1: ibb.co In this schematic, the Spring is located at the end of the TR, showing trapped sellers. Reaccumulation Schematic #2: ibb.co In this schematic, the ST (or Spring) is located at the middle of the TR, showing trapped buyers. Traditional Reaccumulation Schematics: ibb.co (Credit: Roman Bogomazov / www.wyckoffanalytics.com) Example of Traditional Reaccumulation #2 Analysis: (Press Play!): 3. Distribution : --------------------------------- Above we learnt that in accumulation, the shares purchased outnumber those sold while, in distribution, the opposite is true. The shares sold outnumber those purchased. In a Distribution Trading Range two of the key characteristics are the UTAD/UT (Upwards Thrust / Upwards Thrust & Distribution) above the Trading Range, and the SoW's Signs Of Weaknesses with strong volume at the bottom end of the range. The start of the trading range should be easily identified by a BC (Buying Climax). The extent of accumulation or distribution determines the cause that unfolds in the subsequent move out of the TR . There are roughly 9 characteristics of an Distribution Range: 1. PS (Preliminary Supply) is the first selling area creating the Trading Range. 2. BC (Buying Climax) is the climactic action that is sold up quickly creating the upper bound of the TR. It is a strong example of Effort vs Result usually, with abnormally large buying volume, but no further upside. 3. AR (Automatic Rally) is a low volume, quick reaction visiting the other side of the TR, usually indicating long covering. 4. ST (Secondary Test) a secondary test of the initial Supply Area created by the BC. 5. SOW (Sign of Weakness) are strong moves to the lower bounds of the Trading Range (or Underneath) with strong volume signature. 6. UT or UTAD (Upwards Thrust) in a UT (Upwards Thrust) a significant amount of buyers enter the market, “Buying the Breakout”, but their Effort, leads to no Result and this variation of a “Bull Trap” is the most significant characteristic of the Distribution TR. A UTAD (Upwards Thrust and Distribution) forms within the middle or end of the Trading Range; there is an obvious lack of Result vs Effort, with abnormally large buying volume signature, yet price fails to get back above this area again. It can look similar to a miniature Trading Range (Distribution). 7. UTAD or LPSY (Last Point of Supply) In Schematic #1 we have the UTAD at the end, in Schematic #2 we have it in the middle (simplified). If the /UT is found in the middle then we are looking for the LPSY to confirm the Resistance, when price revisits the initial Supply area created at the start of the Trading Range, and then successfully decreases from that area. 8. SOW (Sign of Weakness, Fall under the Ice) just like how in Accumulation we Jump Across the creek, in Distribution we do the latter and Fall Under the Ice. SOW (Sign of Weakness) are strong moves to the lower bounds of the Trading Range (or Underneath) with strong volume signature. 9. LPSY (Last Point of Supply) instead of revisiting the initial Supply area created at the start of the Trading Range, in LPSY (Last Point of Supply) revisits the recent Supply (Resistance) area, usually a former Support. The term may be used in a plural manner, with multiple LPSY forming the Lower Highs (LH’s) that make up the basis of a market trend. We should then enter the Mark Down phase as described at the start of this article. Distribution is the Cause, and Mark Down is the Effect. Examples & Links : Distribution Schematic #1: school.stockcharts.com In this schematic, the UTAD is located at the end of the TR, showing trapped buyers. Distribution Schematic #2: school.stockcharts.com In this schematic, the UTAD is located in the middle of the TR, showing trapped buyers. Example of Distribution #1 Analysis (Press Play!): Example of Distribution # 2 Analysis (Press Play!): 4. Redistribution : --------------------------------- After Distribution, Comes Redistribution. Where after a extended down move, a repeated sideways movement occurs which leads to another extended downwards move. Redistribution is also known as a Downtrend Continuation. Redistribution is said to be difficult to analyse, so my general advice is to treat Redistribution as a method to spot an additional Distribution Schematic after a Distribution Schematic and a Mark Down has already occurred previously recently on the chart (Similar to a Bear Flag Pattern after a Distribution). The characteristics are almost identical to Distribution sometimes, except the previous price movement leading up to the trading range is upwards : Here are the characteristics explained : 1. PS (Preliminary Support) the first Support area that was lost, creating the upper bound of the TR. 2. SC (Selling Climax) the climactic action that is bought up quickly creating the lower bound of the TR. It is a strong example of Effort vs Result usually, with abnormally large selling volume, but no further downside. 3. AR (Automatic Rally) is a low volume, quick reaction visiting the other side of the TR, usually indicating long covering + (UT/UA Upwards Thrust / Action) The Upwards Action or Upwards Thrust takes out the Supply above the AR area, before heading back down. 4. ST (Secondary Test) a secondary test of the initial Demand Area created by the SC. 5. UT or UTAD (Upwards Thrust, or Upwards Thrust And Distribution), in a UT (Upwards Thrust) a significant amount of buyers enter the market, “Buying the Breakout”, but their Effort, leads to no Result and this variation of a “Bull Trap” is the most significant characteristic of the Distribution TR. A UTAD is basically a UT (Upwards Thrust) with a Distribution also (miniature Bearish Trading Range) that usually forms within the middle or end of the TR. 6. LPSY + Test (Last Point of Supply) is when price revisits the initial Supply area created at the start of the Trading Range, and then successfully decreases from that area, the test confirmed by tapping the upper Supply Area before heading into the TR again. 7. SOW (Sign of Weakness) *sometimes* with a potential UTAD (Upwards Thrust and Distribution): Signs of Weakness are strong moves to the lower bounds of the Trading Range (or Underneath) with strong volume signature. 8. SOW (Sign of Weakness, Fall under the Ice) just like how in Accumulation we Jump Across the creek, in Distribution we do the latter and Fall Under the Ice. 9. LPSY (Last Point of Supply) instead of revisiting the initial Supply area created at the start of the Trading Range, in this LPSY we are visiting the Supply area created near the bottom of the Trading Range. We should then enter the Mark Down phase as described at the start of this article. Redistribution is the Cause, Mark Down is the Effect. Examples & Links : It is important to note that Redistribution can appear as Distribution just like Accumulation as Reaccumulation as mentioned earlier, here is a example on ETHUSDT: Redistribution Schematic #1: ibb.co In this schematic, the UTAD is located at the end of the TR, showing trapped buyers. Redistribution Schematic #2: ibb.co In this schematic, the UTAD is located in the middle of the TR, showing trapped buyers. Example of Redistribution #1 Analysis (Press Play!): Example of Redistribution #2 Analysis (Press Play!): 5. Failure of Schematic : --------------------------------- Wyckoff based trades can also fail. It is also important to note that Wyckoff Schematics are not a guarantee, more so a system for you to analyse the market and know potential lower risk areas to position your trades. In this example below (Click+Press Play!) we can see that the Accumulation on BATUSDT did have a strong breakout, but never entered into a correct markup phase and then "failed" when the price came back inside of the TR (Trading Range): Nine Buying/Selling Tests: ----------------------------------------------------------- Whereas the three Wyckoff laws provide a big-picture foundation for the Wyckoff method, the nine buying and selling tests are a set of narrower, specific principles to help guide trade entry. These tests help delineate when a trading range is drawing to a close and a new uptrend (markup) or downtrend (markdown) is about to begin. In the book, by Hank Pruden, named "The Three Skills of Top Trading" , as well as the following article by Jack K Hutson the Nine Buying and Selling Tests of Wyckoff are discussed and outlayed similar to the above image: These nine tests can be difficult to understand, or even apply to your charts, so I have summarised them and modernised these tests for a purely candlestick chart and simplified point of view. Alot of analysts beforehand made use of P&F (Point & Figure Charts). At the top of your Tradingview chart, you can see a small icon, if you click it you can see the different types of charts available, we are currently on Candlesticks, Point & Figure is another option that was used for some Wyckoff Analysis, but in my simplified version we are just using Candlesticks: ibb.co Here are my simplified Buying & Selling Tests explained with images 1. Buying Tests : --------------------------------- I am using the chart of ZILUSDT as a example. Wyckoff Buying Tests for Accumulation (Simplified Version) 1. Downside price target complete or close to complete of any previous Bearish Patterns (Bear Flag Pattern used for Target Measurement: www.thepatternsite.com ) 2. PS, SC, and AR/ST on chart (Remember our first chart above, with Supply & Demand? ON the left we can see creation of the trading range with the Selling Climax (SC), Automatic Rally (AR), and Support Test (ST) we also covered this in the chart below (The 2nd below is showing that on ZILUSDT): 3. Bullish Signs (volume or price increases on rallies and diminishes during reactions) 4. Diagonal Resistance Broken 5. Higher lows & 6. Higher highs 7. Asset stronger than the market (more responsive on rallies and more resistant to reactions than the market index or other dominant assets) 8. Base forming (horizontal price line) (It can resemble a Flat Base Pattern: www.thepatternsite.com) 9. Estimated upside profit potential is at least three times the loss if the initial stop-loss were hit (Risk to Reward; 3:1) We can now see we have completed all 9 Buying Tests: And for the final images, we can see that ZIL has a massive upside move, moving to the Mark Up phase from our Buying Tests Analysis: Aswell as starting to complete a larger Accumulation #1 Structure as desribed above. 2. Selling Tests : --------------------------------- I am using the chart of XTZBTC as a example. If you missed it above, dont forget to see the original 9 Selling Tests: ibb.co Wyckoff Buying Tests for Distribution (Simplified Version) 1. Upside price objective complete of any previous Bullish Patterns on higher timeframes, or close to complete (Bull Flag Pattern used for Target Measurement: www.thepatternsite.com ) 2. Bearish Signs (volume decreases on rallies and increases on reactions) 3. Preliminary supply, buying climax (PSY, BC) We also covered this in the chart below (The 2nd below is showing that on XTZBTC): 4. Asset weaker than the market (more responsive than the market on reactions and sluggish on rallies) XTZ was a perfect example of Selling Test #4, as you can see it was much weaker than Bitcoin at the time, which was leading the market. 5. Diagonal Support Broken 6. Lower Highs & 7. Lower Lows 8. Crown forming (It can resemble a ugly Double Top Pattern: www.thepatternsite.com) 9. Estimated downside profit potential is at least three times the loss if the initial stop-loss were hit (Risk to Reward; 3:1), we have now completed all 9 Selling Tests! And for the final images, we can see that XTZBTC has a massive downside move, moving to the Mark Down phase from our Selling Tests Analysis: As well as starting to complete a larger Distribution #2 Structure as described above. Refer to your schematics above if your confused. Conclusion: ----------------------------------------------------------- Not only does the Wyckoff Method teach the novice Investor/Trader the techniques, foundations and methods needed to analyse the market, it also helps create a system and mindframe towards observing and timing the market, which allows the trader to be much more rationalised and organised in their train of thought as well as much more risk averse. By using the Wyckoff based analysis on Siacoin we can clearly see this token has potential for more upside, although we do need to be cautious as a significant pullback on Bitcoin could easily “Fail” the “Spring” action of the TR (Trading Range) in the original analysis image above. What would a successful accumulation breakout look like on Siacoin? Refer to the original chart at the start of the post. I have made a small drawing, describing the characteristics we need to see for this to progress further. You can use that drawing along with the next below to get a rough idea of what a successful breakout will look like, compare with the Accumulation Schematics you studied above. What would a failure of accumulation look like on Siacoin? I will give two examples: 1. Failure of Spring 2. Failure of Phase E (Uptrend) I hope you enjoyed my explanation of the Wyckoff Method - Thank you and if you found this writeup insightful, educational and informative don't forget to hit Subscribe, Like & Comment so others can also potentially see and benefit from this post, if you wish to see these concepts in action, I recommend visiting my signature as well. Other Resources & References: ----------------------------------------------------------- Websites: Wyckoff Analytics: wyckoffanalytics.com Wyckoff SMI: wyckoffsmi.com Videos: Wyckoff Youtube: www.youtube.com Wyckoff SMI Youtube: www.youtube.com Stockcharts.com Youtube: www.youtube.com (I didnt cover volume much in this article, check out the above video for a Volume Tutorial) Articles: school.stockcharts.com school.stockcharts.com school.stockcharts.com www.wyckoffanalytics.com www.wyckoffanalytics.com Magazine of Wall Street Database: (Founded by Wyckoff) shorturl.at Books: www.amazon.com www.amazon.com References: en.wikipedia.org school.stockcharts.com
SEducation
by Worth_The_Ri5k
22
The Laws of Wyckoff: Effort Vs ResultIntroduction: --------------------------------- Richard Demille Wyckoff (November 2, 1873 – March 7, 1934) was considered one of the five “titans” of technical analysis , along with Dow, Gann , Elliott and Merrill. Wyckoff was an avid student of the markets, as well as an active tape reader and trader. He observed the market activities and campaigns of the legendary stock operators of his time, including JP Morgan and Jesse Livermore. From his observations and interviews with those big-time traders, Wyckoff codified the best practices of Livermore and others into laws, principles and techniques of trading methodology, money management and mental discipline. Laws of Wyckoff --------------------------------- Wyckoff Analysis is fundamentally based off the Three Laws of Wyckoff, which can be found and recognized across many different types of Analysis, the Laws help give insight to our analysis and choice of buying/selling. The Three Laws of Wyckoff are: Supply & Demand Effort vs. Result Cause & Effect Law #2: Effort vs. Result --------------------------------- Wyckoff states that every effort should lead to a result in the financial markets. The above example describes the concept of Effort vs Result in a Trading Range (Parallel Channel) using Volume & Price Based Analysis This statement is applied to our charts by using data found on Trading View from the Volume Indicator. When we see abnormally large trading volume at key areas on the chart, such as a defined "TR (Trading Range)" we can usually expect a continued move in that direction, this is called the Breakout of the range. But if buyers cannot gather enough momentum to continue the Breakout action, they may become trapped, and as prices fall back inside of the defined area, their Effort has produced no Result. That abnormally large trading volume can give us a potential sign that the participants betting on the market to move in that direction failed to gather enough momentum to do so (Light Blue), which leads to them being trapped (Dark Blue) and then a reverse in the opposite direction in price (Purple). This kind of Analysis is not just "fixed" to the bottom or top of a Trading Range, Effort vs Result can be interpreted a number of ways, for example in the below image we can see that the Effort in this case was not outside of the range, but a failure from the buyers to hold prices INSIDE the range: --------------------------------- Thank you and if you found this writeup insightful and informative don't forget to hit Subscribe, Like & Comment to show your appreciation. Visit my signature for further education on these concepts in action
CEducation
by Worth_The_Ri5k
1
CAN Megaphone and Wyckoff Accumulation PatternCAN is printing a Broadening Bottom Megaphone pattern on the CAN daily chart; the RSI looks to be increasing on the price lows indicating increased momentum. Zooming out it also looks like an accumulation pattern has been forming over the past several months. The megaphone may work as the "Spring / Test" stages for Phase C if it plays out and bring the price back up into the recent trading range. If the Megaphone breaks down, then it may be a take a while to climb back. I am not a financial advisor or professional trader by and stretch, so please do your own research.
NASDAQ:CANLong
by chimera_brendo
ZEC Most Important Resistance!When looking at ZEC on the daily TF we can see that is currently trading right below one of the strongest support resistance zones that have been established for this project. Privacy coins are becoming more favorable these days with a lot of centralization happening in the crypto space with companies we thought were for the people and decentralization. This key resistance level needs to be broken through decisively. ZEC also needs to show strength by trading in the new range shown above its current resistance. If that second line is broken through and ZEC can trade strongly above those levels another run to the previous highs is looking more possible. It's a strong OG project that's not going anywhere anytime soon. Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:ZECUSD
by rnaofs
3
Bitcoin is going to have some trading ranges!Bitcoin is going to have some trading ranges! Bitcoin is affected by Russia Ukraine war news, According to this news, Hard dumps and Pumps have been seen in the last few days. Trading range between $39,400 and $36,400 is possible for a while, Market traders need to decide for BTC's future movements. As long as we're below $40,000 resistance, I expect to see BTC totally bearish, In my idea $33,000 is still in access! These days, the Market is moving emotionally, So try to decrease the size of your positions and set your stop loss bigger.
by TahaZargar
BTC - Breakdown of Market Participants & Structure 1#So I thought I would put some thoughts together breaking down how I am looking at the Macro View of BTC at present, as there is a lot of negativity in the space right now and on CT (Crypto Twitter ). A good way to clear you head from the noise is to step back and look at the chart on the macro level (see the forests from the trees). For simplicity, this analysis will look at naked price action and market structure only. From this analysis, we can discuss where money that is biased by these principals may look to re-enter the market. NOTE: I would advise you look for confluence with other tools such as indicators and moving averages when making market decisions (happy to discuss these in future posts in this series if people want – let me know in the comments below). Please consider this analysis for education and entertainment purposes only (not financial advice). First let’s discuss the doodles & squiggles I have drawn and why they have been included in this chart. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT Firstly, let’s look at the horizontal thin black and gold lines on the chart. This is a tool called the Fibonacci (Fib) Retracement tool, and the levels are based on the Fibonacci sequence which is a numerical sequence of numbers found in patterns in nature that are repeated almost everywhere. The numbers (and corresponding price levels are drawn in brackets on the far right of the chart). I have drawn our Macro fib from the COVID 2020 March bottom to our new ATH at ~$69K (see blue arrows). Looking at these fib levels, we can see these have provided respected price levels of support and resistance . For example the 0.786 level held support when we were mucking about trying to break the prior ATH of ~$20K in November / December 2021, 0.5 level currently as well as many points through the mess in the specified Supply / Demand zone (red and green horizontal rectangles) trading range and the 0.382 & 0.236 fib levels through the start and end period of 2021. It is important to note that we are showing respect to these levels on the way down in our current down trend which means there is money in the game that is giving conviction to this Technical Analysis Tool. I would expect we lose the current 0.5 fib level we are currently respecting at the time of writing over the next few days if we don’t see any volume come in at the current levels. Most fib traders are looking for the 'Golden Pocket' for re-entry positions ( gold lines in the tool). Fib traders who have money / profits that are sitting on the side lines, generally look to take exposure again at the 0.618 - 0.65 levels (or a 61.8% to 65% retrenchment in price for those that like to think in percentages). This range and all fib levels is significant in nature and similar patterns are shown in social behaviour (I recommend you do some self-teaching if you are not over this - there is plenty of good free resources on this topic out there and is an interesting read). I like to think of the Golden Pocket range as the area of 'Max Pain' for 'underwater traders' and often forms good areas of liquidity for Fib Traders to attack with low slippages on exchanges on re-entry. The Golden Pocket fib levels range between the bottom of the green demand zone and the top of a daily Order Block (OB) (blue rectangle in the image), showing some confluence for support in this region. I may do a post in this series on how I view Order Blocks if people are interested - let me know in the comments below. A respected Macro Fib retracement means there is conviction at the macro level in looking for confluence with support at the 'Golden Pocket' range. TRADING RANGE ( SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE) Simple rules of trading ranges are; once you reach the top, assume we are going back to the bottom unless proven otherwise (i.e. a break of the upper levels of the trading range) and visa versa. While the trading range (ranging between ~$42K and ~$29K) I have drawn is traditionally not how you would specify a trading range, the Demand and Supply zones drawn on this chart have shown clear indication of price level support and resistance through 2021 (the top and bottom definition of a trading range) and has been a zone where BTC has enjoyed returning to for some re-accumulation of positions / exposure. A strong indication of supply and demand is evident from the large 'wicks' on the highs and lows of candles (noting we are viewing the chart on the daily time frame). Where these wicks align at price levels, we can deduce that there are confluence between net buyers and sellers targeting these prices to gain exposure / close positions respectively, forming this idea of a trading range. This price behaviour generally dictates price moments until it no longer does. As discipline traders, we identify these patterns and use the top and bottom levels as "if this, then that" decision events. We can see the specified trading range between the top Red Supply Zone (Selling Pressure) and below Green Demand Zone (Buying Pressure) horizontal rectangle ; starting with our first major trouble with our parabolic uptrend at the start of 2021. This zone or trading range was respected with the 'Chinese BTC Mining Exodus" dump and established local bottom through the blood red month of May and Jun / July 2021 period; and we have just regained this region again in our current ~85 day down trend from our ATH . As discussed above, re-entering the trading range, we assume we are visiting the low of the range before reversing. As we did not reach the top of the trading range on the relief rally from the weekly OB (there were a number of tell-tale confluences suggesting this would not be the case) and rejected at the red arrow at the red point 3. This bearish price action further strengthens to a trading range trader that we are visiting the lower level of the trading ranges. NOTE: again as with all trading ranges, we visit the top, then the bottom, then the top etc of the range until we don't. Based on this analysis alone we could be 'playing in the sand box' so to speak within this range for a while. PARABOLIC TREND LINES Drawn on the chart is a thick Red line (drawn using touch points during September 2020 before our parabolic uptrend which align with our liquidity grab market trend reversal 'dippy dip' at the end of July 2021) and a Green trend line (drawn using the same point to start our fib retracement levels discussed above (i.e bottom of March COVID Crash) and different touch points during September 2020 before our parabolic uptrend). These are called parabolic uptrend lines because if you keep drawing these on our start of 2021 parabolic uptrend run, these lines resemble the tangential linear direction of the parabolic curve from that point of the curve. They are useful as when we break key support line, they indicate a fundamental breakdown of current market structure. A good demonstrator of this is shown by the Blue line, which once we broke (while we did attempt to regain this line) indicated fundamental structural issues with the sustainability of price levels and resulted in a 'Flush' of the prior months price action. The Red trend line below, we expected the price to intersect with the ~$40K region. This trend line showed confluence with the top of our trading range. We initially bounced as expected off these levels. Traders who would have put their stop losses below the end of September 2021 bounce (which was the confirmation point for many traders of a higher low and confirmed the uptrend to the underwhelming new ATH of $69K), created a liquidity pool for Whales to target. The expected liquidity zone also suggested this price level would be a good area to look for a recovery of trend to the up-side. However as shown by the lack of low volume , this turned out to be a ‘bounce for ants’ and we eventually broke down from this trend line . I expect this trend line to form resistance on a potential bounce to the current trend if that does in happen and we interact with the line from below (hence why I have marked this as Red). The Green trend line below is our next parabolic line of interest (and potentially our last). While this does not align with our trading range where one would expect it may first intercept with price with our current trajectory, it could form support in the act of a large liquidity grab / capitulation event which wicks on the daily chart below the demand zone and quickly re-enters the trading range. I believe this may be needed to reverse the current bearish trend in BTC and is often associated with reversals and breakout of a trading range. Traders will often refer to this as a fake out. For similar reasons above, this line signifies points of interest we should pay attention to when and if price meet / intersects this line. LONG TERM TREND LINES The Black downward directing diagonal trend lines dictating the highs and lows of our current trend clearly show the current intra-cycle price direction is bearish and will continue until these lines are broken. It is noted we have traded in this pattern now downward without any considerable relief rallies for 85 days. This is unusual, and will need a failed decent relief rally if prices are to fall down at our current rate to the extreme lows called for in CT. Relief rallies are needed for healthy continuation of trend direction (both up and down) as they allow traders to take profits on the way up or on the way down from long and short positions, and provide clean retry points to continue the trend. The fact we have traded in these trend lines for so long to be is an indication of how over sold we currently are and suggests we should be looking for confluence with other indicators to support this thesis. These line are pretty self-explanatory, however when we break them they are the first sign of repair. The 'story' of these lines are some what explained through the above and shown with the orange and red arrows at point 1,2 and 3 respectively. I would detail these points, but as this post is already lengthy I think from the above you can work out what is happen here and why they are / were significant and strong supporting signals for traders to respect and expect the continuation of the current bearish trend. If and when we break and confirm these trend lines (hopefully to the upside), we then need to work out if we are getting a to failed relief rally or a change of trend by locking in a higher low and a higher high and start to see resistance levels flip into support. GREEN BOX - POINT OF CONFLUENCE While the above by all means does not guarantee price will drop to this level and if and when it does will not mean we will get a reversal of trend. In Crypto, anything can happen and the above should all be taken as dubious speculation (after all it is all just doodles on a chart haha). However as with anything in life when trying to work out the whys and how's and the mysteries of human behaviour, it is prudent to follow the money (as money incentivises behaviour and effort); and when it comes to BTC , the money comes from the market participants; and the portion that influences their decision in this market on the above concepts (Traders and possibly the Whales) will be looking at these price areas; and as they often make up the majority of trading at critical pivot points in the market, it is worth understanding what could be important to these market participants when price reaches these levels. That being said, the confluence on the above concepts is why the indicated 'Green Box' is where it is and if we range down to this level then based on price action analysis alone, this would be a point of interest to expect a bounce and review to see if we have enough volume to start a trend reversal. Confluence with other TA such as indicators I would advise using which if people wish I might do a post in this series (let me know in the comments below). For context with what has been drawn on the chart; if we have not reached our market top ATH this cycle (as measured from the halving), then a visit to the Green Box and down to the Green line would be the worst case outcome I would be expecting. To remain bullish from this point we want to see strong volume and a wicks only below the Demand zone (any substantial trading below the demand zone would require caution. If we break the green line to the down side, I think it is very possible we have made our ATH (All Time High) this cycle at ~69K (barely a ~3.5X from the last cycles ATH at ~$20K). Based on Market structure and Price action alone; there is very little support below the Demand zone , and if we break it and confirm then the low 20s and then low teens would follow. I hope the above was useful / insightful and hopefully an interring read. Please comment your throughs below – these posts are intended to promote positive discussions in our space.
Long
by Brodie
Would Bitcoin get to 32000$ soon?Since January 2021, Bitcoin has had movements in a long-term trading range; it has touched the top twice on April 15th 2021 and November 10th 2021. Also, the price got as low as the bottom of the trading range on January 21st on the pullback, may 19th after setting a new all-time high and it stayed there for a while and now after 260 days, the price is about to meet the bottom once again. But to ensure that the price wouldn’t start moving up from right here, more clues are needed. As it’s obvious, the last correction wave was pretty weak which means the down-trend isn’t over yet. If we take a closer look on the 1h time frame, we see an uptrend channel, which had a break out from bottom. In the best situation, the 40000 static line would be met again, then the daily down-trend would be continued UNLESS whales make any weird decision or the market gets bombed with good news. Due to all the reasons mentioned above, there is a huge probability to have better chances to buy. The possible movements are drawn with blue lines on the chart. Don’t forget to drop a comment below and like this post if it helped you!
Short
by impressiveHero2001
2
US30 15M Chart Swing Trading ZonesPlay the chart with simple rules: Buy/Sell into entries when the candle completes above "Long Entry", or when candle completes under "Short Entry" Have small stop losses (10-15 pips) in order to not encounter a fake out (goes above our entry line and goes back down for example) Play with minimum 2 positions. Once trades hits TP1, change stop loss to break even, making it a risk free trade. If passes TP2, change stop loss again to TP1 to lock in profit if trade goes in reversal. Have tight stop losses to lock in profit, If trade hits TP3, close. If you do see a reversal (For example going from TP2 short to TP1 short, get into a BUY and have take profit @entry point) Do not trade in-between the Long Entry, and Short Entry! That's my range, and often it will just stay in there until a break out. If trade breaks through our TP3, wait for a candle to come back to TP3 and reverse the trade back to Long/Short Entry for maximum profit!
U
by CoverchefsFX
BTC dancing in the TradingrangeAs you can see, the BTC has been bounced between 60k - 30k zones and has created a tradingrange. It has attacked the top zone and created 3 pushes up but did not have enough momentum to break out and created a bearish tight channel and now, it has reached the bottom line ( channle line ) and made a bullish candle in Daily timeframe to the bearish channel midline. But this bullish daily candle looks like a pullback to the broken 48k support and I expect the price to bounce down on the channel- midline and go down to strong 41k support. That would be high probability support zone and price goes up to the top of the trading range and make a break out and finds a new ATH. But I expect at a list a shadow touch to the 30k zone.
Short
by shahriarknd
IWM: The most interesting chart in the world: As of Friday (Jan 21) IWM has fallen out of a long range of distribution, produced both daily and weekly closes outside the trading range, and importantly has the potential to produce a large move. In this piece we discuss the trading range, mostly from a Wyckoff perspective, show multiple ways to start thinking about how far the move might progress, and finally take a look at IWM in terms of its strength relative to the higher quality SPX. Again, there is not a trading recommendation attached to these observations. The CMT course offers an excellent way to learn more about the concepts discussed below. 1) The most important chart feature is the trading range. Long trading ranges represent zones where supply and demand move into balance. a. Ranges are zones where strong hands / smart money accumulate new shares if they are bullish, or distribute existing shares if they are bearish. b. In early November price attempted to break out of the top of the range, but failed. In Wyckoff terms this is known as a terminal upthrust. The failure is bearish and confirmed the view that the range represented distribution. c. The upthrust was followed by a high volume decline back to the lower bound. The volume expansion and solid thrust strongly suggested that price was likely to break out of the trading range. d. There was some buying as the market tested the bottom of the range for the last time (note the very low volume bounce). My interpretation is that traders who had repeatedly bought the trading range lows, tried to buy again. They failed to recognize the significance of the upthrust and of the development of high volume in the days just prior. Now they are trapped. 2) On Friday, price fell through the range lows, trapping longs and accelerating lower on high volume. 3) Was the volume high enough to exhaust the immediately available supply? I would think not. Modern selling climaxes often take multiple days to unfold, and are not likely to occur this soon after falling out of a long zone of distribution. Remember, the long range attracted many weak handed buyers who are now being forced to liquidate. Targets: 1) There are several ways to think about move objectives. The simplest is to run a Fibonacci retracement of the March 2020 low to the November 2021 high. I keep it simple. I look at .382, .500 and .618. 2) Note that the 50% retracement of the entire move is very close to the January 2020 high pivot. The two form a support confluence in the 169 zone. Given the amount of distribution that occurred in the trading range, I think its more likely that the .618% retracement @ 152 is the most likely one. 3) When a correction develops you will be able to use the TradingView trend based Fib extension tool to project additional targets. Its likely that those targets, combined with the retracement tool and more traditional chart analysis will provide support confluences to work with. Point and Figure charts also provide insight. They don't get nearly the respect of Fib points, but they deserve it. I tend to use the Fibo points as my references, but sometimes, a solid PF range count can add insight. Wyckoff and others taught that the length of time spent in the consolidation is related directly to the distance of the subsequent move. Trading ranges are areas of the chart where large amounts of shares change hands, often from strong hands to weak hands. This is why there is a relationship between the length of the range and the size of the move. 1. Granted, there is no end to the debate as to what points should be used to define the counts. Since I'm a simple guy, I keep it simple. 2. In this case the width of the range is notable. A conservative target falls in the 145 area while a more aggressive accounting measures as deep as 121. So I have targets, what do I do now? 1. I think its enough to know that the targets are all much lower. As the trade progresses the chart will produce more support and resistance zones, target and objectives that will help to narrow the range of outcomes. 2. The final point is that, particularly in the case of point and figure charts, objectives are more guides than they are precise points. When available P&F counts are extremely useful in determining risk/reward in a trade. In the shorter run, the market broke out of its trading range on Friday with a solid daily/weekly thrust lower. But now, in the shortest perspectives it is deeply oversold. If the market does rally, the character of the rally is likely be corrective. I like to look for bear flags or pennants or a rally back to the underside of the broken trading range before the market rolls over again. Final Point: I was always taught to buy the strongest names/groups in uptrends and to sell the weakest names/groups in downtrends. IWM has clearly been weaker than SPX for a number of months. The top panel is IWM, the middle panel is the SPX and the bottom panel is the ratio between the two. If the market is setting up a major correction IWM probably will be far weaker than SPX. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
AMEX:IWMEducation
by CMT_Association
52
BTCUSDT long position in 4h time frameObviously we are in a trading range right now and the price is a little above the support line. However, the sellers are still very active and the supply is overpowering the demand but if the sides change it's safe to say we can open a long position. Also, we see positive divergence in 4h and 1h time frames on MACD and RSI indicators, yet opening any long positions still have highly risky due to lower market cap. looking forward to hear your opinions.
Long
by impressiveHero2001
Elon In potential profit zoneAs you can see, the price started its bullish cycle in Oct. It finished the channel phase and entered into trading range phase, but not a normal trading range, It created trading range in pattern mode ( bullish triangle ). Parts of the charts are: Red line: short term bearish trend line ( one side of the triangle ) Dotted red line: extended bearish trend line Green line: short term dynamic support ( another side of the triangle ) White lines: Main support zone The Price broken both bearish trend line and extended one with 3 consecutive bullish candles and then has created a pullback with 2 pin bars and another small bearish candle. That's definitely a spike and its pullback, but the context does not support the idea that it's a start of a new bullish cycle which can create a new ATH, or just a minor cycle into the trading range and can go up and touches the previous ATH. For now, We do expect that the pullback continues to at least the broken extended line ( dotted ). If it goes further, the price will make pullback to the main bearish line ( red ) which also will be the cross of the red and the green line, so at that point, strong support it likely expected. So at this point, the tp1 would be the previous high which will give %89.29 profits ( %161 if it goes down to the red line ) and at that point, we need to see the price momentum and decide to go for higher tps or we should take the profit.
Long
by shahriarknd
FEG in watchAs you can see, the price was in a bullish cycle: it finished its 2-leg spike and the channel ended with an exhaustion gap and created new ATH. After that the tradingrange phase started in 2 modes: first it created a bullish wedge ( bearish channel ) and then, it created a classic trading range. The momentum is weak because of the size of the candles and can not expect the pr parts of the chart are as bellow: 1- Maroon boxes ( at right ) are highs and lows of the trading range, 2- White lines are bullish wedge ( bearish channel ), 3- Maroon boxes ( at left ) are cycle separators, 4- Orange line is the dynamic support/resistance line which has played both sides ( sometimes it supports and sometimes it resists clearly ). 5- Maroon line is the support inside the classic trading range. The momentum is weak because of the size of the candles and can not expect the price to make a break out of the dynamic line ( current resistance ). Also the bearish trend candle suggests that the price will fall down to the inside- support and then make an up to the dynamic line and again bounces in there for a while and then, make a break out of the dynamic line and make a pullback to it and go up to touch the high of the trading range. At that level, we need to look at the chart again and analyse the context and the momentum. So the first tp will be the high of the trading range. *P.S: This is just a personal view and do not consider it as a trading signal or any other financial activity.
F
by shahriarknd
3
Update on Silver's Bearish Partial Rise SetupA while back i uploaded a chart pointing out that silver was partial rising within a trading range and that the next time it hit the bottom of the range it'd be much more likely for us to break down and today here we are. I'm reuploading this chart as a relevant reminder of the impending breakout. I expect that we should get a move down to the .786 and .886 area once things really get going. Along with Silver i'm similarly bearish on Gold
TVC:SILVERShort
by RizeSenpai
2