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Tradingrange

BTC - Breakdown of Market Participants & Structure 1#So I thought I would put some thoughts together breaking down how I am looking at the Macro View of BTC at present, as there is a lot of negativity in the space right now and on CT (Crypto Twitter ). A good way to clear you head from the noise is to step back and look at the chart on the macro level (see the forests from the trees). For simplicity, this analysis will look at naked price action and market structure only. From this analysis, we can discuss where money that is biased by these principals may look to re-enter the market. NOTE: I would advise you look for confluence with other tools such as indicators and moving averages when making market decisions (happy to discuss these in future posts in this series if people want – let me know in the comments below). Please consider this analysis for education and entertainment purposes only (not financial advice). First let’s discuss the doodles & squiggles I have drawn and why they have been included in this chart. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT Firstly, let’s look at the horizontal thin black and gold lines on the chart. This is a tool called the Fibonacci (Fib) Retracement tool, and the levels are based on the Fibonacci sequence which is a numerical sequence of numbers found in patterns in nature that are repeated almost everywhere. The numbers (and corresponding price levels are drawn in brackets on the far right of the chart). I have drawn our Macro fib from the COVID 2020 March bottom to our new ATH at ~$69K (see blue arrows). Looking at these fib levels, we can see these have provided respected price levels of support and resistance . For example the 0.786 level held support when we were mucking about trying to break the prior ATH of ~$20K in November / December 2021, 0.5 level currently as well as many points through the mess in the specified Supply / Demand zone (red and green horizontal rectangles) trading range and the 0.382 & 0.236 fib levels through the start and end period of 2021. It is important to note that we are showing respect to these levels on the way down in our current down trend which means there is money in the game that is giving conviction to this Technical Analysis Tool. I would expect we lose the current 0.5 fib level we are currently respecting at the time of writing over the next few days if we don’t see any volume come in at the current levels. Most fib traders are looking for the 'Golden Pocket' for re-entry positions ( gold lines in the tool). Fib traders who have money / profits that are sitting on the side lines, generally look to take exposure again at the 0.618 - 0.65 levels (or a 61.8% to 65% retrenchment in price for those that like to think in percentages). This range and all fib levels is significant in nature and similar patterns are shown in social behaviour (I recommend you do some self-teaching if you are not over this - there is plenty of good free resources on this topic out there and is an interesting read). I like to think of the Golden Pocket range as the area of 'Max Pain' for 'underwater traders' and often forms good areas of liquidity for Fib Traders to attack with low slippages on exchanges on re-entry. The Golden Pocket fib levels range between the bottom of the green demand zone and the top of a daily Order Block (OB) (blue rectangle in the image), showing some confluence for support in this region. I may do a post in this series on how I view Order Blocks if people are interested - let me know in the comments below. A respected Macro Fib retracement means there is conviction at the macro level in looking for confluence with support at the 'Golden Pocket' range. TRADING RANGE ( SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE) Simple rules of trading ranges are; once you reach the top, assume we are going back to the bottom unless proven otherwise (i.e. a break of the upper levels of the trading range) and visa versa. While the trading range (ranging between ~$42K and ~$29K) I have drawn is traditionally not how you would specify a trading range, the Demand and Supply zones drawn on this chart have shown clear indication of price level support and resistance through 2021 (the top and bottom definition of a trading range) and has been a zone where BTC has enjoyed returning to for some re-accumulation of positions / exposure. A strong indication of supply and demand is evident from the large 'wicks' on the highs and lows of candles (noting we are viewing the chart on the daily time frame). Where these wicks align at price levels, we can deduce that there are confluence between net buyers and sellers targeting these prices to gain exposure / close positions respectively, forming this idea of a trading range. This price behaviour generally dictates price moments until it no longer does. As discipline traders, we identify these patterns and use the top and bottom levels as "if this, then that" decision events. We can see the specified trading range between the top Red Supply Zone (Selling Pressure) and below Green Demand Zone (Buying Pressure) horizontal rectangle ; starting with our first major trouble with our parabolic uptrend at the start of 2021. This zone or trading range was respected with the 'Chinese BTC Mining Exodus" dump and established local bottom through the blood red month of May and Jun / July 2021 period; and we have just regained this region again in our current ~85 day down trend from our ATH . As discussed above, re-entering the trading range, we assume we are visiting the low of the range before reversing. As we did not reach the top of the trading range on the relief rally from the weekly OB (there were a number of tell-tale confluences suggesting this would not be the case) and rejected at the red arrow at the red point 3. This bearish price action further strengthens to a trading range trader that we are visiting the lower level of the trading ranges. NOTE: again as with all trading ranges, we visit the top, then the bottom, then the top etc of the range until we don't. Based on this analysis alone we could be 'playing in the sand box' so to speak within this range for a while. PARABOLIC TREND LINES Drawn on the chart is a thick Red line (drawn using touch points during September 2020 before our parabolic uptrend which align with our liquidity grab market trend reversal 'dippy dip' at the end of July 2021) and a Green trend line (drawn using the same point to start our fib retracement levels discussed above (i.e bottom of March COVID Crash) and different touch points during September 2020 before our parabolic uptrend). These are called parabolic uptrend lines because if you keep drawing these on our start of 2021 parabolic uptrend run, these lines resemble the tangential linear direction of the parabolic curve from that point of the curve. They are useful as when we break key support line, they indicate a fundamental breakdown of current market structure. A good demonstrator of this is shown by the Blue line, which once we broke (while we did attempt to regain this line) indicated fundamental structural issues with the sustainability of price levels and resulted in a 'Flush' of the prior months price action. The Red trend line below, we expected the price to intersect with the ~$40K region. This trend line showed confluence with the top of our trading range. We initially bounced as expected off these levels. Traders who would have put their stop losses below the end of September 2021 bounce (which was the confirmation point for many traders of a higher low and confirmed the uptrend to the underwhelming new ATH of $69K), created a liquidity pool for Whales to target. The expected liquidity zone also suggested this price level would be a good area to look for a recovery of trend to the up-side. However as shown by the lack of low volume , this turned out to be a ‘bounce for ants’ and we eventually broke down from this trend line . I expect this trend line to form resistance on a potential bounce to the current trend if that does in happen and we interact with the line from below (hence why I have marked this as Red). The Green trend line below is our next parabolic line of interest (and potentially our last). While this does not align with our trading range where one would expect it may first intercept with price with our current trajectory, it could form support in the act of a large liquidity grab / capitulation event which wicks on the daily chart below the demand zone and quickly re-enters the trading range. I believe this may be needed to reverse the current bearish trend in BTC and is often associated with reversals and breakout of a trading range. Traders will often refer to this as a fake out. For similar reasons above, this line signifies points of interest we should pay attention to when and if price meet / intersects this line. LONG TERM TREND LINES The Black downward directing diagonal trend lines dictating the highs and lows of our current trend clearly show the current intra-cycle price direction is bearish and will continue until these lines are broken. It is noted we have traded in this pattern now downward without any considerable relief rallies for 85 days. This is unusual, and will need a failed decent relief rally if prices are to fall down at our current rate to the extreme lows called for in CT. Relief rallies are needed for healthy continuation of trend direction (both up and down) as they allow traders to take profits on the way up or on the way down from long and short positions, and provide clean retry points to continue the trend. The fact we have traded in these trend lines for so long to be is an indication of how over sold we currently are and suggests we should be looking for confluence with other indicators to support this thesis. These line are pretty self-explanatory, however when we break them they are the first sign of repair. The 'story' of these lines are some what explained through the above and shown with the orange and red arrows at point 1,2 and 3 respectively. I would detail these points, but as this post is already lengthy I think from the above you can work out what is happen here and why they are / were significant and strong supporting signals for traders to respect and expect the continuation of the current bearish trend. If and when we break and confirm these trend lines (hopefully to the upside), we then need to work out if we are getting a to failed relief rally or a change of trend by locking in a higher low and a higher high and start to see resistance levels flip into support. GREEN BOX - POINT OF CONFLUENCE While the above by all means does not guarantee price will drop to this level and if and when it does will not mean we will get a reversal of trend. In Crypto, anything can happen and the above should all be taken as dubious speculation (after all it is all just doodles on a chart haha). However as with anything in life when trying to work out the whys and how's and the mysteries of human behaviour, it is prudent to follow the money (as money incentivises behaviour and effort); and when it comes to BTC , the money comes from the market participants; and the portion that influences their decision in this market on the above concepts (Traders and possibly the Whales) will be looking at these price areas; and as they often make up the majority of trading at critical pivot points in the market, it is worth understanding what could be important to these market participants when price reaches these levels. That being said, the confluence on the above concepts is why the indicated 'Green Box' is where it is and if we range down to this level then based on price action analysis alone, this would be a point of interest to expect a bounce and review to see if we have enough volume to start a trend reversal. Confluence with other TA such as indicators I would advise using which if people wish I might do a post in this series (let me know in the comments below). For context with what has been drawn on the chart; if we have not reached our market top ATH this cycle (as measured from the halving), then a visit to the Green Box and down to the Green line would be the worst case outcome I would be expecting. To remain bullish from this point we want to see strong volume and a wicks only below the Demand zone (any substantial trading below the demand zone would require caution. If we break the green line to the down side, I think it is very possible we have made our ATH (All Time High) this cycle at ~69K (barely a ~3.5X from the last cycles ATH at ~$20K). Based on Market structure and Price action alone; there is very little support below the Demand zone , and if we break it and confirm then the low 20s and then low teens would follow. I hope the above was useful / insightful and hopefully an interring read. Please comment your throughs below – these posts are intended to promote positive discussions in our space.
Long
by Brodie
Would Bitcoin get to 32000$ soon?Since January 2021, Bitcoin has had movements in a long-term trading range; it has touched the top twice on April 15th 2021 and November 10th 2021. Also, the price got as low as the bottom of the trading range on January 21st on the pullback, may 19th after setting a new all-time high and it stayed there for a while and now after 260 days, the price is about to meet the bottom once again. But to ensure that the price wouldn’t start moving up from right here, more clues are needed. As it’s obvious, the last correction wave was pretty weak which means the down-trend isn’t over yet. If we take a closer look on the 1h time frame, we see an uptrend channel, which had a break out from bottom. In the best situation, the 40000 static line would be met again, then the daily down-trend would be continued UNLESS whales make any weird decision or the market gets bombed with good news. Due to all the reasons mentioned above, there is a huge probability to have better chances to buy. The possible movements are drawn with blue lines on the chart. Don’t forget to drop a comment below and like this post if it helped you!
Short
by impressiveHero2001
2
US30 15M Chart Swing Trading ZonesPlay the chart with simple rules: Buy/Sell into entries when the candle completes above "Long Entry", or when candle completes under "Short Entry" Have small stop losses (10-15 pips) in order to not encounter a fake out (goes above our entry line and goes back down for example) Play with minimum 2 positions. Once trades hits TP1, change stop loss to break even, making it a risk free trade. If passes TP2, change stop loss again to TP1 to lock in profit if trade goes in reversal. Have tight stop losses to lock in profit, If trade hits TP3, close. If you do see a reversal (For example going from TP2 short to TP1 short, get into a BUY and have take profit @entry point) Do not trade in-between the Long Entry, and Short Entry! That's my range, and often it will just stay in there until a break out. If trade breaks through our TP3, wait for a candle to come back to TP3 and reverse the trade back to Long/Short Entry for maximum profit!
U
by CoverchefsFX
BTC dancing in the TradingrangeAs you can see, the BTC has been bounced between 60k - 30k zones and has created a tradingrange. It has attacked the top zone and created 3 pushes up but did not have enough momentum to break out and created a bearish tight channel and now, it has reached the bottom line ( channle line ) and made a bullish candle in Daily timeframe to the bearish channel midline. But this bullish daily candle looks like a pullback to the broken 48k support and I expect the price to bounce down on the channel- midline and go down to strong 41k support. That would be high probability support zone and price goes up to the top of the trading range and make a break out and finds a new ATH. But I expect at a list a shadow touch to the 30k zone.
Short
by shahriarknd
IWM: The most interesting chart in the world: As of Friday (Jan 21) IWM has fallen out of a long range of distribution, produced both daily and weekly closes outside the trading range, and importantly has the potential to produce a large move. In this piece we discuss the trading range, mostly from a Wyckoff perspective, show multiple ways to start thinking about how far the move might progress, and finally take a look at IWM in terms of its strength relative to the higher quality SPX. Again, there is not a trading recommendation attached to these observations. The CMT course offers an excellent way to learn more about the concepts discussed below. 1) The most important chart feature is the trading range. Long trading ranges represent zones where supply and demand move into balance. a. Ranges are zones where strong hands / smart money accumulate new shares if they are bullish, or distribute existing shares if they are bearish. b. In early November price attempted to break out of the top of the range, but failed. In Wyckoff terms this is known as a terminal upthrust. The failure is bearish and confirmed the view that the range represented distribution. c. The upthrust was followed by a high volume decline back to the lower bound. The volume expansion and solid thrust strongly suggested that price was likely to break out of the trading range. d. There was some buying as the market tested the bottom of the range for the last time (note the very low volume bounce). My interpretation is that traders who had repeatedly bought the trading range lows, tried to buy again. They failed to recognize the significance of the upthrust and of the development of high volume in the days just prior. Now they are trapped. 2) On Friday, price fell through the range lows, trapping longs and accelerating lower on high volume. 3) Was the volume high enough to exhaust the immediately available supply? I would think not. Modern selling climaxes often take multiple days to unfold, and are not likely to occur this soon after falling out of a long zone of distribution. Remember, the long range attracted many weak handed buyers who are now being forced to liquidate. Targets: 1) There are several ways to think about move objectives. The simplest is to run a Fibonacci retracement of the March 2020 low to the November 2021 high. I keep it simple. I look at .382, .500 and .618. 2) Note that the 50% retracement of the entire move is very close to the January 2020 high pivot. The two form a support confluence in the 169 zone. Given the amount of distribution that occurred in the trading range, I think its more likely that the .618% retracement @ 152 is the most likely one. 3) When a correction develops you will be able to use the TradingView trend based Fib extension tool to project additional targets. Its likely that those targets, combined with the retracement tool and more traditional chart analysis will provide support confluences to work with. Point and Figure charts also provide insight. They don't get nearly the respect of Fib points, but they deserve it. I tend to use the Fibo points as my references, but sometimes, a solid PF range count can add insight. Wyckoff and others taught that the length of time spent in the consolidation is related directly to the distance of the subsequent move. Trading ranges are areas of the chart where large amounts of shares change hands, often from strong hands to weak hands. This is why there is a relationship between the length of the range and the size of the move. 1. Granted, there is no end to the debate as to what points should be used to define the counts. Since I'm a simple guy, I keep it simple. 2. In this case the width of the range is notable. A conservative target falls in the 145 area while a more aggressive accounting measures as deep as 121. So I have targets, what do I do now? 1. I think its enough to know that the targets are all much lower. As the trade progresses the chart will produce more support and resistance zones, target and objectives that will help to narrow the range of outcomes. 2. The final point is that, particularly in the case of point and figure charts, objectives are more guides than they are precise points. When available P&F counts are extremely useful in determining risk/reward in a trade. In the shorter run, the market broke out of its trading range on Friday with a solid daily/weekly thrust lower. But now, in the shortest perspectives it is deeply oversold. If the market does rally, the character of the rally is likely be corrective. I like to look for bear flags or pennants or a rally back to the underside of the broken trading range before the market rolls over again. Final Point: I was always taught to buy the strongest names/groups in uptrends and to sell the weakest names/groups in downtrends. IWM has clearly been weaker than SPX for a number of months. The top panel is IWM, the middle panel is the SPX and the bottom panel is the ratio between the two. If the market is setting up a major correction IWM probably will be far weaker than SPX. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
AMEX:IWMEducation
by CMT_Association
52
BTCUSDT long position in 4h time frameObviously we are in a trading range right now and the price is a little above the support line. However, the sellers are still very active and the supply is overpowering the demand but if the sides change it's safe to say we can open a long position. Also, we see positive divergence in 4h and 1h time frames on MACD and RSI indicators, yet opening any long positions still have highly risky due to lower market cap. looking forward to hear your opinions.
Long
by impressiveHero2001
Elon In potential profit zoneAs you can see, the price started its bullish cycle in Oct. It finished the channel phase and entered into trading range phase, but not a normal trading range, It created trading range in pattern mode ( bullish triangle ). Parts of the charts are: Red line: short term bearish trend line ( one side of the triangle ) Dotted red line: extended bearish trend line Green line: short term dynamic support ( another side of the triangle ) White lines: Main support zone The Price broken both bearish trend line and extended one with 3 consecutive bullish candles and then has created a pullback with 2 pin bars and another small bearish candle. That's definitely a spike and its pullback, but the context does not support the idea that it's a start of a new bullish cycle which can create a new ATH, or just a minor cycle into the trading range and can go up and touches the previous ATH. For now, We do expect that the pullback continues to at least the broken extended line ( dotted ). If it goes further, the price will make pullback to the main bearish line ( red ) which also will be the cross of the red and the green line, so at that point, strong support it likely expected. So at this point, the tp1 would be the previous high which will give %89.29 profits ( %161 if it goes down to the red line ) and at that point, we need to see the price momentum and decide to go for higher tps or we should take the profit.
Long
by shahriarknd
FEG in watchAs you can see, the price was in a bullish cycle: it finished its 2-leg spike and the channel ended with an exhaustion gap and created new ATH. After that the tradingrange phase started in 2 modes: first it created a bullish wedge ( bearish channel ) and then, it created a classic trading range. The momentum is weak because of the size of the candles and can not expect the pr parts of the chart are as bellow: 1- Maroon boxes ( at right ) are highs and lows of the trading range, 2- White lines are bullish wedge ( bearish channel ), 3- Maroon boxes ( at left ) are cycle separators, 4- Orange line is the dynamic support/resistance line which has played both sides ( sometimes it supports and sometimes it resists clearly ). 5- Maroon line is the support inside the classic trading range. The momentum is weak because of the size of the candles and can not expect the price to make a break out of the dynamic line ( current resistance ). Also the bearish trend candle suggests that the price will fall down to the inside- support and then make an up to the dynamic line and again bounces in there for a while and then, make a break out of the dynamic line and make a pullback to it and go up to touch the high of the trading range. At that level, we need to look at the chart again and analyse the context and the momentum. So the first tp will be the high of the trading range. *P.S: This is just a personal view and do not consider it as a trading signal or any other financial activity.
F
by shahriarknd
3
Update on Silver's Bearish Partial Rise SetupA while back i uploaded a chart pointing out that silver was partial rising within a trading range and that the next time it hit the bottom of the range it'd be much more likely for us to break down and today here we are. I'm reuploading this chart as a relevant reminder of the impending breakout. I expect that we should get a move down to the .786 and .886 area once things really get going. Along with Silver i'm similarly bearish on Gold
TVC:SILVERShort
by RizeSenpai
2
Head and Shoulders at the Midway point of Trading RangeOn the weekly we are currently closing below the 55 week moving average and potentially double topping while on the daily we are trading within a range potentially creating a Head and Shoulders pattern that if broken would likely take us to the bottom of the range. If after making it to the bottom of the range we break through, we can then begin to target the much bigger target of the weekly double top that can take us down to $120 or even lower but to be conservative lets say $120. I believe that payment processors are in a position of weakness and that we will see many pullback over the coming months. For more on this you can view my idea on Visa in the related ideas section.
NYSE:XYZShort
by RizeSenpai
XMR daily analysisWell, crypto market is looking bullish in an overall looking, XMR had broken out of a big triangle, as we know this could end to a trend reversal ( pump ) or Trading range, and as we can see, we have had a trading range so far ( shown in the picture ); it makes a good situation for BLSH ( Buy Low, Sell High ), and also if we ever break out of this trading range, we will most probably have some huge spikes, so watch out for this one: two scenarios are drawn in the chart. Stay profitable, best regards. - Comment your opinions below.
by Algo_Analyst
Bitcoin in Trading Range and a Possible breakout to $59kTRADING #Episode 1 (BTC/USDT) Hello Everyone, it is a good day and I am glad to be a part of this platform and I hope to be giving updates on anything cryptocurrency related. BTC has been in a trading range after an upward trend forming a flag. Currently, the market is going up and down around the range. Traders who want to gain from every move could gain from the upward and downward movement of the chart while still in range. There is a high possibility of having a breakout allowing BTC to hit $59k. This is not a financial Advice, DYOR
by gbenga-owolabi