Learning#03 : VWAP in Intraday TradingLearning#03 : VWAP in Intraday Trading
📊 VWAP in Intraday Trading: The Market’s Fair Price GPS
Ever wondered if there’s a level that shows where the real trading action is happening? That’s exactly what VWAP does — it’s like a volume-weighted compass that intraday traders use to orient themselves in the market.
It’s not just another line on your chart. VWAP reflects where institutions and volume-heavy participants are active. That’s why understanding how price interacts with it can give you a serious edge.
Let’s break it down 👇
🧠 What is VWAP?
VWAP stands for Volume Weighted Average Price.
In simple terms, it shows the average price a stock has traded at throughout the day, based on both price and volume.
Unlike a simple average, VWAP gives more weight to prices where more trading volume occurred — meaning it's a better reflection of the market’s consensus value.
Think of it as:
A real-time fair value line for intraday decision-making.
📈 Why VWAP Matters for Intraday Traders
VWAP acts as an intraday anchor. It tells you whether the price is currently trading above or below the day’s volume-weighted average — giving you quick insight into who's in control.
Here’s how to interpret it:
When price is above VWAP, buyers are in control and the bias is bullish.
When price is below VWAP, sellers are dominating and the bias is bearish.
When price is hovering near VWAP, the market is undecided, consolidating, or lacking direction.
In short, VWAP tells you who’s winning the intraday tug of war — and whether it’s even worth stepping in.
⚙️ How to Use VWAP in Your Intraday Strategy
1️⃣ VWAP as a Trend Filter
Before entering a trade, check where price is relative to VWAP:
Price above VWAP with higher lows → Focus on long setups
Price below VWAP with lower highs → Focus on short setups
🔁 Skip counter-trend trades. Stay with the flow.
This helps in trending markets by keeping you aligned with momentum.
2️⃣ VWAP as Dynamic Support or Resistance
VWAP behaves like a magnet. Price often pulls back to it and either:
Rejects (respects the level as support/resistance), or
Breaks and reclaims (signaling a potential reversal)
Use it alongside:
Flag patterns
Inside bars
Break-and-retest structures
3️⃣ VWAP Reversion Play (Snapback Trade)
This is a mean-reversion setup:
Price moves quickly away from VWAP at open
No strong follow-through, signs of exhaustion
Take a counter-trend trade back to VWAP
⚠️ Avoid this in strong trending markets — best used in choppy or fading environments.
4️⃣ VWAP with Price Action for Structure
Pair VWAP with clean price action:
Mark support and resistance zones
Observe price behavior near VWAP
Look for confirmation: inside bars, rejection wicks, engulfing candles
🎯 This adds logic and clarity to your entries — no random trades.
🔍 Bonus VWAP Tips
Combine VWAP with:
CPR (Central Pivot Range) for confluence zones
Opening range for breakout bias
Volume profile to spot high interest areas
These combos create strong, repeatable trade setups.
✅ VWAP Recap: Why It Matters
Here’s a quick breakdown of how VWAP can sharpen your intraday trading game:
Bias Building: VWAP helps confirm whether the market structure is bullish or bearish, giving you a reliable directional bias.
Trend Filtering: It keeps you aligned with the current momentum by filtering out counter-trend trades.
Pullback Entries: VWAP acts as a dynamic support or resistance level, offering clean zones to enter trades during pullbacks.
Mean Reversion: In sideways or fading markets, VWAP becomes a natural magnet — allowing you to target price reversions.
Risk Management: It provides logical reference points for placing stop-losses and defining entry zones, adding clarity to your risk-reward planning.
✍️ Final Thoughts
VWAP may sound simple, but it brings real structure to intraday trading.
It tells you where volume met price, and that’s powerful. When used with price action, it creates a solid framework for:
Building directional bias
Finding clean entries
Managing risk like a pro
VWAP doesn’t predict — it reflects. And in trading, reflection is more useful than prediction.
🛎️ Respect VWAP. Trade with structure.
— Kiran Zatakia
Tradingsetup
NZDCAD - a few technical things togetherFib's retracement level of 50.00% will probably give the trend some strong upward impulse,
After that, this "Bull Flag" will come into play, and the price will go up a little bit higher,
The next step is to enter the price into the current "Most meaningful" channel...
Our take profit is: 0.82550. (Near +24 pips from current price).
Ethereum - This structure decides everything!Ethereum - CRYPTO:ETHUSD - trades at a key structure:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
After Ethereum retested the previous all time high in the end of 2024, we saw quite a harsh move lower. This move was followed by an expected recovery, however Ethereum is still trading below a key structure. Either move is still possible and will shape the future of Ethereum.
Levels to watch: $2.500, $4.000
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
EURUSD LongHere is our EUR USD Signal that we posted
As you can see it's running nicely at 258 Pips.
EURUSD Buy
📊Entry: 1.13538
⚠️SL: 1.12594
✔️TP1: 1.14732
✔️TP2: 1.16256
✔️TP3: 1.18194
We have 5 big swing trades running at present, all of which comes from our trading strategy that is solely based on pure maths. So far in 2025 we have hit 1 stop loss from over 100 trades.
My point to this post is to encourage you all to keep trying, don't give up. It took us over 2 years to perfect this strategy, and we know it works.
If you want any help just ask me, and I will help you.
Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis : MMC Setup Confirmed + Target📊 1. Market Structure Overview
After a strong rally earlier this month, XAUUSD entered a corrective phase and formed a descending trendline which acted as resistance for multiple days. This trendline has just been tested and broken, suggesting that the correction may be coming to an end.
At the same time, price is showing signs of strength by bouncing off the lower boundary of a long-standing parallel ascending channel—a structure that has acted as dynamic support over the past two weeks.
🧱 2. Key Technical Elements
🟦 Support/Resistance Interchange Zone (S/R Flip)
Price recently interacted with a horizontal S/R interchange zone around the $3,310–$3,330 area.
This zone served as resistance during the earlier part of the trend and is now acting as support after the breakout.
It also overlaps with the mid-section of the ascending channel, adding confluence to this support area.
📐 Descending Trendline Break
The break above the descending trendline signals a potential shift in momentum.
Traders often view this kind of breakout as an early indicator of bullish continuation, especially when combined with volume or retests.
🟩 Next Reversal/Target Zone
A green box is highlighted around the $3,345–$3,355 zone, which could act as the next resistance or reversal level.
This is based on prior market structure and Fibonacci extension zones.
This area may offer a take-profit level for longs or a short-term reversal zone for countertrend traders.
🔍 3. What to Watch
✅ Bullish Scenario
If the price sustains above $3,310 and holds above the broken trendline, we could see a push toward the $3,345–$3,355 area.
Ideal long entries may occur on a retest of the trendline or the S/R flip zone, confirming it as support.
❌ Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold above the $3,300–$3,310 support region would invalidate the breakout.
A clean break below this zone could result in a drop back to the lower parallel channel boundary near $3,270 or even lower.
⚙️ 4. Trading Plan & Bias
Short-term Bias: Bullish (Trendline break + support hold)
Mid-term Bias: Cautiously Bullish (until major resistance is tested)
Risk Management: Stop-loss for long entries should be placed below $3,300 with targets near $3,345 and $3,355.
💬 Conclusion
This setup presents a classic case of trendline breakout + S/R flip confluence, which often leads to favorable risk/reward opportunities. Gold traders should monitor the retest behavior around current levels closely, as it will likely determine the next directional move.
📌 Always wait for confirmation, manage risk, and don’t chase moves—especially near major zones.
BEST XAUUSD M30 BUY & SELL SETUP FOR TODAY 📉📊 Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook – Key Decision Zone Incoming! ⚠️📈
Gold prices are currently testing a crucial support zone around 3,251, following a strong bearish momentum. As shown on the M30 chart, the market is now at a make-or-break level, where two potential scenarios could unfold: either a bullish reversal toward the 3,280–3,300 area if price holds and confirms support ✅, or a bearish continuation if the level breaks, pushing price lower toward 3,220 or beyond ❌. Traders should watch for price action signals and wait for a clear breakout or strong bounce confirmation before entering any trades 🧠🔍. This is a high-volatility reaction zone — trade smart! 🎯📉📈
XAUUSD M30 BEST BUY AND SELL SETUP FOR TODAYGold (XAUUSD) is trading near a 🔴 strong resistance zone (3,239–3,252). If price shows a bearish rejection from this area, it could be a sign of a 🧨 liquidity grab or fake breakout. This sets up a potential 📉 sell opportunity, targeting the support zones at 3,175 and possibly down to 3,120 where the 🧊 weak low and demand lie. A safe 🛑 stop-loss can be placed above 3,260 to manage risk. However, if the price gives a strong breakout and 📈 retest above 3,252, then a bullish continuation toward 3,325–3,350 is likely 🎯. Patience is key—wait for clear confirmation before entering the trade ⚖️📊.
TBO TEK LTD – 19 May Trendline Resistance Test Incoming 📌 Trade Plan (Aggressive Swing Setup):
Buy above: ₹1,250 (on breakout + volume confirmation)
Stoploss: ₹1,195
Target 1: ₹1,310
Target 2: ₹1,385
Sell Below: ₹1,180 (if price rejects the trendline with high volume)
🔎 Technical Insights:
Strong volume buildup near resistance
RSI trending upwards with bullish momentum
Trendline acting as dynamic resistance since Nov 2024
For Education Purposes Only
OIL – Oil India Ltd | Target: ₹429.00🟢 Trade Details:
LTP: ₹417.30
Recommended Buy Range: ₹415.50 – ₹416.00
🎯 Target: ₹429.00
🛑 Stop Loss: ₹408.70
🔍 Technical Snapshot:
✅ Strong bullish candle with volume confirmation
✅ EMA crossover supports the uptrend (9 EMA > 13 EMA)
✅ RSI at 62.22 shows healthy momentum
✅ Breakout above previous range box visible on Daily & 1H TF
📊 BB %B at 0.82 – still room before overbought levels
💼 Strategy:
Suitable for short-term MTF holding (2–5 days)
Risk-Reward ~1:1.5
Trail SL to cost once ₹424+ is breached
Use smaller timeframes (15m / 1H) to confirm entry with volume
For Education Purposes Only
MKVENTURES CAPITAL – Positional Breakout Setup📈 Buy Above: ₹1,700 (Breakout Zone)
Stoploss: ₹1,630
Target 1: ₹1,790
Target 2: ₹1,880
🔹 RSI is bullish, above 60
🔹 Strong volume build-up
🔹 Near resistance zone – breakout likely
📉 Sell Below: ₹1,630 (Trend Reversal)
Stoploss: ₹1,700
Target: ₹1,550
📊 Chart: Daily
📌 Strategy: Resistance Breakout with RSI & Volume Confirmation
💡 Risk-Reward: 1:2 (Good for swing trade)
For Education Purposes Only
Equity Research Report – CARE Ratings Ltd (CARERATING)🔹 Technical Outlook
Stock has broken out of a horizontal resistance near ₹1,237 with volume pickup.
RSI is above 60, indicating momentum strength.
Short-term EMAs are crossing over the 50-day EMA — bullish signal.
Volume confirms accumulation.
🛒 Trade Setup
✅ Short-Term View (Swing/Positional Trade):
Buy above: ₹1,240 (on closing basis)
Target 1: ₹1,320
Target 2: ₹1,375
Stop-Loss: ₹1,185
Timeframe: 2–4 weeks
🏦 Long-Term View (Investor Strategy):
Buy Range: ₹1,180–1,240
Target 1: ₹1,450
Target 2: ₹1,580
Stop-Loss: ₹1,080 (weekly close)
Timeframe: 3–6 months
for educational purpose only
BANKNIFTY 52700 PE (29 May 2025 Expiry) – Intraday Options Type: Intraday | Put Option (PE)
Strike: 52700
CMP: ₹635.00Recommended Buy Range: ₹626.00 – ₹631.00
Target Achieved: ₹730.00 ✅
Stop Loss: ₹570.00
Profit Booked: ₹94.35 / +18.45% 🟢
⏱️ Timeframes: 15min & 1H
This was a quick momentum scalp based on:
🔻 Weakness in BankNifty index with rejection near key resistances
📉 Bearish candles on 15min + volume confirmation
🔄 Entry near VWAP zone, breakout of structure support
For Education Purposes Only
Gold Price Analysis May 2D1 frame confirms closing below the disputed zone showing the downtrend continues to extend in the following days
The recovery in the Asian and European sessions can be a stepping stone for a decrease in the US session. Sellers are waiting for high price zones and old breakout zones to sell their goods. The 3271-3273 zone plays an important role in the bearish structure as long as this zone is held by the sellers, the possibility of a price increase is relatively low.
The barrier in the Asian session around 3257 will be where we consider the trading strategy. If the European session breaks this zone, we can buy at the target of 3271-3273. If the US session does not break this zone, SELL breaks it, the downtrend structure is broken and holds the BUY order until 3299. The daily resistance zone will be 3312. When 3371 is not broken, SELL and this is a good Swing signal to 3200. The possibility of a strong sell-off after Nonfarm is also understandable.
Strategy: If it does not break 3257 but falls, wait for the reaction at the border of 3243. When this zone is broken, the trend is broken, then we only SELL. If it increases from 3243, then maintain the above strategy with a better entry.
JUSTDIAL LTD Falling Wedge (Bullish breakout)🔁 Chart Analysis Summary
Weekly RSI is reversing from oversold levels and shows bullish divergence.
Volume on breakout candle confirms strength.
Clear breakout above falling wedge indicates a trend reversal.
✅ Buy Recommendation
Buy above: ₹925 (Confirmation of breakout)
Target 1: ₹1,050
Target 2: ₹1,250
Target 3: ₹1,400+ (Long-term potential based on pattern projection)
❌ Stop Loss
SL: ₹840 (Below wedge support & recent low)
for educational purposes only
T Trading Guide 4/21/25AT&T (T) Trading Analysis for Monday, April 21, 2025
Sentiment Analysis
-Overview: Sentiment on X and StockTwits is neutral, with investors appreciating T’s 4.11% dividend yield but expressing concerns over tariff-driven cost increases. Analyst consensus remains stable, with a “Hold” rating and a $21.50 target (April 20 ), though some Reddit (r/options) users highlight margin pressures from tariffs.
-Implication: Mixed sentiment suggests range-bound trading absent a catalyst, with tariff concerns capping upside potential.
Strategic Outlook
-Assessment: The outlook for Monday is neutral, supported by balanced options activity, oversold technicals with potential for a bounce, and a VIX at ~40 indicating volatility.
-Implication: Anticipate a price range of $26.50 to $27.50, with support at $26.50 likely to hold and resistance at $27.50 posing a challenge for bulls.
Market Influences
-Overview: No new Federal Reserve decisions today; recent guidance on April 17 signals caution on rates, potentially impacting telecom spending. T’s earnings are due April 23, with a consensus EPS of $0.52 (April 20 ). Social media chatter on X and WallStreetBets focuses on dividend stability, though some Reddit users note tariff risks (10% baseline). No M&A news has surfaced.
-Implication: Earnings anticipation and tariff pressures suggest cautious trading, likely keeping T within a tight range on Monday.
Price Context
-Overview: Current price at $27.15. The stock has declined 4% over the past month from $28.30 on March 31 and is up 13% year-over-year from $24.02 in April 2024. Support lies at $26.50, with resistance at $27.50.
-Implication: Recent declines indicate limited upside; a break below $26.50 could signal further downside to $26.00.
Technicals:
Monthly: RSI at 45 (neutral), Stochastic at ~40 (neutral), MFI at ~42 (neutral). Price below 10/20-month SMAs ($28.00/~$29.00, bearish).
Implication: Long-term bearish trend with neutral momentum.
Weekly: RSI at 42 (neutral), Stochastic at ~35 (neutral), MFI at ~38 (neutral). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($27.50/~$28.00, bearish).
Implication: Bearish trend with neutral momentum, suggesting consolidation for weekly contracts.
Daily: RSI at 40 (neutral), Stochastic at ~30 (neutral), MFI at ~35 (neutral). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($27.20/~$27.50, bearish).
Implication: Daily trend bearish, but oversold conditions may support a bounce.
4-Hour: RSI at 43 (neutral), Stochastic at ~38 (neutral), MFI at ~40 (neutral). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($27.10/~$27.20, bearish).
Implication: Medium-term bias bearish, aligning with weekly caution.
Hourly: RSI at 46 (neutral), Stochastic at ~42 (neutral), MFI at ~44 (neutral). Price below 10/20-hour SMAs ($27.05/~$27.10, bearish).
Implication: Intraday bias bearish, suggesting potential selling pressure.
10-Minute: RSI at 48 (neutral), Stochastic at ~45 (neutral), MFI at ~46 (neutral). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($27.00/~$27.05, bearish).
Implication: Short-term bias bearish, supporting a cautious weekly stance.
Options Positioning
Overview: Weekly options show balanced volume ($27.00 calls: 800 contracts, 50% at ask; $26.50 puts: 900 contracts, 55% at bid), with a put-call ratio of 1.1 (neutral) and IV skew flat ($27.00 calls/puts: 35%). Monthly options have a put-call ratio of 1.0, IV flat ($27.00: 32%). 3-Month options show a put-call ratio of 1.2, IV flat ($26.50: 30%). VIX at ~40 (down 5%, above 30-day average of ~35).
Option Flow Dynamics (OFD) Analysis:
Vanna:
-Impact: Minimal, ±$0.02 intraday.
-Insight: Balanced call/put volume and flat IV skew at 35% result in negligible delta adjustments by dealers, even with a VIX of 40.
-Stance: Neutral for weekly contracts; bullish if IV exceeds 38%.
Charm:
-Impact: Pins price ±$0.02, minimal volatility.
-Insight: High open interest at $27.00 (calls: 2,000 contracts, puts: 2,200 contracts) leads dealers to maintain delta neutrality, pinning the price near expiry.
-Stance: Neutral for weekly contracts; bearish if price breaks above $27.50.
GEX (Gamma Exposure):
-Impact: Pins price ±$0.05, minimal volatility.
-Insight: Balanced gamma from equal call/put open interest at $27.00 keeps price stable, though a VIX of 40 could amplify breakout volatility.
-Stance: Neutral at $27.15 for weekly contracts; bearish above $27.50.
DEX (Delta Exposure):
-Impact: No directional bias.
-Insight: A put-call ratio of 1.1 indicates balanced delta exposure, with dealers’ hedging activities netting zero directional impact.
-Stance: Neutral for weekly contracts, even on high volume.
OFD Summary: Weekly flows indicate a neutral bias, with price likely to remain within $26.50-$27.50, driven by balanced Vanna, Charm, GEX, and DEX dynamics. A VIX of 40 suggests potential volatility; earnings on April 23 could push IV above 38%, adding $0.05-$0.10 upside (Vanna). Monthly and 3-month expiries (put-call ratios 1.0 and 1.2) confirm range-bound confluence.
-Implication: Neutral bias for weekly contracts; high VIX suggests volatility within the $26.50-$27.50 range for Monday.
ICT/SMT Analysis
-Overview: Weekly: Neutral, support at $26.50, resistance at $27.50, SMT divergence versus VZ shows relative strength. Daily: Neutral, FVG $27.50-$28.00, OB $26.00. 4-Hour: Neutral, MSS below $27.15, liquidity below $26.50. 1-Hour: Neutral, MSS below $27.15, liquidity below $26.50. 10-Minute: OTE sell zone $27.20-$27.30 (Fib 70.5%), target $26.50.
-Implication: Neutral across timeframes; a breakdown below $26.50 could target $26.00, but weekly contracts are likely to see consolidation.
Edge Insights
-Institutional Flows: Recent block trades (April 18 ) show balanced buying and selling at $27.00, suggesting institutions are hedging rather than taking a directional stance.
-Sector Stability: Telecom sector is down only 5% YTD (Morningstar ), providing relative stability compared to other sectors, though tariff costs remain a headwind for T.
-Earnings Catalyst: With earnings due April 23, pre-earnings positioning may increase volatility, potentially favoring a breakout above $27.50 if sentiment shifts positively.
-Implication: Sector stability supports a neutral weekly stance, but monitor for pre-earnings IV spikes that could shift dynamics.
Trade Recommendation Analysis:
-Neutral: 50% likelihood (balanced options flows, GEX pinning at $27.15, high VIX choppiness).
-Bearish: 30% likelihood (MSS below $27.15, tariff pressures).
-Bullish: 20% likelihood (oversold indicators, potential bounce above $27.50).
-Action: Recommend a neutral stance with a bearish tilt; if bearish, buy $27.00 puts (weekly expiry) at ~$0.20, targeting $0.40, with a stop at $0.10 if T breaks $27.50. Risk $40 (2% of a $2,000 account).
Conclusion for Monday: T is poised for range-bound trading within $26.50-$27.50, driven by neutral options flows and tariff concerns. Focus on a potential breakdown below $26.50 for weekly bearish trades, targeting $26.00. High VIX and impending earnings add risk—execute with tight stops to manage volatility.
ONE POINT ONE SOL LTD bullish reversal pattern✅ Trade Setup (Swing Trade)
📌 CMP: ₹62.21
🟢 Entry (Buy Zone): ₹60–₹63
🎯 Targets:
Target 1: ₹69.80 (Fibo 0.382)
Target 2: ₹78.50 (Fibo 0.5)
Target 3: ₹87.30 (Fibo 0.618)
🛑 Stoploss: ₹55 (below wedge breakout and recent support)
⚖️ Risk-Reward Ratio:
Entry: ₹62 | SL: ₹55 | Target 1: ₹70 → ~1:1
For higher targets, risk-reward improves to 2:1 or more.
for educational purposes only
ICICI Prudential Life – Turning the Corner?After months of steady decline inside a falling channel, ICICI Prudential Life is showing early signs of reversal. The stock has recently broken out of its channel with a strong bullish weekly candle, closing at ₹571.70 with a +4.5% gain. Volume is picking up, and RSI is curling up above 40 with a bullish divergence—indicating momentum is building. Price is now near a key resistance zone (~₹590–₹610); a clean breakout here could confirm trend reversal.
📊 Financial Snapshot
Net Premium Income: ₹10,169 Cr vs ₹9,465 Cr ⬆️
PAT: ₹226 Cr vs ₹221 Cr (flat YoY)
VNB Margin: Healthy at 26.7%
Embedded Value: ₹47,020 Cr
Solvency Ratio: Strong at 211%
AUM: ₹2.88 Lakh Cr
💡 Why Consider Buying?
Reversal setup after long correction
Attractive risk-reward near base
Steady premium growth, strong solvency
Long-term growth play on India’s underpenetrated life insurance sector
🚫 Risks / Why to Wait:
Resistance at ₹590–₹610 still intact
PAT growth has been flat
Sector sentiment can be sensitive to interest rate trends
🎯 Trade Setup:
Buy Zone: ₹565–575
Target 1: ₹610
Target 2: ₹660
Stop Loss: ₹540
for educational purposes only
Triple Tap, Then Boom: ETH Breakout Brewing?We're looking at a classic ascending triangle setup on ETH. Price has tapped the resistance zone around $1676 three times already — the next attempt could lead to a breakout. Market structure is clean: higher lows with strong bullish momentum squeezing price toward the horizontal resistance.
This pattern usually ends with a strong impulse up, and considering the overall sentiment, this could be the beginning of a new local rally.
Entry: $1630-1650
SL: $1582
TP: $1820
Risk/Reward: 4.0
More thoughts in my profile @93balaclava
Personally I trade on a platform that offers low fees and strong execution. DM me if you're interested.
Quantum's TSLA Trading Guide 4/13/25Sentiment: Neutral. EV and AI optimism persists, but tariff risks and high valuation concern traders. Chatter split—bulls eye robotaxi, bears see pullback.
Outlook: Neutral, slightly bearish. Options pin $250, with $240 puts active. ICT/SMT eyes $245-$250 buys to $260 if $245 holds. Bearish below $245 risks $240.
Influential News:
Federal Reserve: Two 2025 cuts support growth stocks, positive for $TSLA.
Earnings: Q1 due late April; no update today.
Chatter: Debates tariff impact vs. AI/EV growth.
Mergers and Acquisitions: None; focus on internal projects.
Other: Tariff volatility hit NASDAQ:TSLA ; stock swung (April 3-9).
Indicators:
Weekly:
RSI: ~50 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~45 (neutral).
MFI: ~40 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs signal weakness.
Daily:
RSI: ~48 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~50 (neutral).
MFI: ~45 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs suggest pullback.
Hourly:
RSI: ~45 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~55 (neutral).
MFI: ~50 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, stabilizing.
Price Context: $252.31, 1M: +1%, 1Y: +38%. Range $240-$270, testing $250 support.
Options Positioning (May 2025):
Volume:
Calls: $260 (15,000, 60% ask), $270 (12,000, 55% ask). Mild bullish bets.
Puts: $240 (10,000, 70% bid), $245 (8,000, 65% bid). Put selling supports $245.
Open Interest:
Calls: $260 (40,000, +7,000), $270 (30,000, +5,000). Bullish interest.
Puts: $240 (25,000, flat), $245 (28,000, +4,000). Hedging. Put-call ~1.0.
IV Skew:
Calls: $260 (40%), $270 (42%, up 3%). $270 IV rise shows upside hope.
Puts: $240 (35%, down 2%), $245 (36%). Falling $240 IV supports floor.
Probability: 60% $240-$270, 20% <$240.
Karsan’s Interpretation:
Vanna: Neutral (~300k shares/1% IV). IV drop could pressure $250.
Charm: Neutral (~150k shares/day). Pins $250.
GEX: +50,000. Stabilizes range.
DEX: +7M shares, neutral.
Karsan view: GEX holds $240-$270; tariff news key.
ICT/SMT Analysis:
Weekly: Neutral, $240 support, $270 resistance. No $TSLA/ NYSE:NIO divergence.
Daily: Bullish at $250 FVG, targets $260. Bearish < $245.
1-Hour: Bullish >$250, $260 target. MSS at $245.
10-Minute: OTE ($249-$251, $250) for buys, NY AM.
Trade Idea:
Bullish: 50%. ICT/SMT buys $245-$250 to $260. Options show $260 calls. Fed cuts aid.
Neutral: 35%. RSI (~50), SMAs (bearish), $240-$270 range.
Bearish: 15%. Below $240 possible with tariffs. $240 put volume grows.
Quantum's T (AT&T) Trading Guide 4/13/25Sentiment: Neutral. Dividend yield (4-5%) and debt reduction ($123B) attract income seekers, but telecom competition and tariff fears limit enthusiasm. X posts praise stability, though growth concerns persist.
Outlook: Neutral, slightly bullish. Options pin $27, with call buying eyeing $28. ICT/SMT supports $26-$26.50 buys to $27.50-$28 if support holds. Bearish risk below $25 low unless earnings falter.
Influential News:
--Federal Reserve: Rates unchanged, two 2025 cuts expected, easing debt costs. Liquidity boost mildly positive.
--Earnings: Q1 due April 23 (EPS $1.97-$2.07 vs. $2.13). Fiber (28.9M locations) and cash flow (>$16B) could lift if beat.
--Chatter: X mixed—stability vs. tariff risks. Analyst focus on earnings revisions.
--Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): Talks to acquire Lumen’s fiber unit ($5.5B+), potentially boosting growth but risking debt concerns.
--Other: Tariffs caused volatility; RUS:T stable. Broadband expansion adds value.
Indicators:
--Weekly:
----RSI: ~45 (neutral).
----Stochastic: ~50 (neutral).
----MFI: ~40 (neutral).
----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish).
----Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMA signals suggest consolidation.
--Daily:
----RSI: ~48 (neutral).
----Stochastic: ~55 (neutral).
----MFI: ~45 (neutral).
----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish).
----Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs indicate pullback but recovery possible.
--Hourly:
----RSI: ~50 (neutral).
----Stochastic: ~60 (neutral).
----MFI: ~50 (neutral).
----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish).
----Interpretation: Neutral, mildly bullish momentum.
Price Context: $26.79 (April 11 close), 1M: -6%, 1Y: +59%. Range $25-$29, holding $26 support amid tariff concerns.
Options Positioning (May 2025):
-Volume:
----Calls: $27 (3,500, 60% ask = buying), $28 (2,500, 55% ask). Bullish bets on $27-$28.
---Puts: $25 (2,000, 70% bid = selling), $26 (1,500, 65% bid). $25 put selling supports $26 floor.
-Open Interest:
---Calls: $27 (10,000, +2,000 = buying), $28 (7,000, +1,500). Institutional bullishness.
---Puts: $25 (4,000, flat), $26 (6,000, +1,000). Hedging, not bearish. Put-call ~0.9.
-IV Skew:
---Calls: $27 (25%), $28 (27%, up 2%). $28 IV rise shows $28+ speculation.
---Puts: $25 (22%, down 1%), $26 (24%). Falling $25 IV reinforces $26 support.
-Probability: 60% $25-$28, 20% >$29.
Karsan’s Interpretation:
---Vanna: Neutral (~50k shares/1% IV). Stable IV limits flows; earnings IV spike could push
$27.50.
---Charm: Neutral (~20k shares/day). Pins $27.
---GEX: +20,000. Dealers sell $28, buy $26, holding range.
---DEX: +1M shares, neutral.
---Karsan view: GEX pins $26-$28; catalyst needed.
ICT/SMT Analysis:
--Weekly: Neutral, $25 support, $29 resistance. No $T/ NYSE:VZ divergence (~$43 NYSE:VZ ).
--Daily: Bullish at $26 FVG, targets $28. Bearish < $26.
--1-Hour: Bullish >$26.50, $27.50 target. MSS at $26.50.
--10-Minute: OTE ($26.69-$26.80, $26.73) for buys, NY AM (8:30-11:00 AM).
Trade Idea:
---Bullish: 60%. ICT/SMT buys $26-$26.50 to $27.50-$28 (OTE $26.73). Options favor $27-$28
calls. Earnings, M&A, Fed cuts support.
---Neutral: 30%. RSI (~45), SMAs (bearish), $25-$29 range, balanced options (put-call ~0.9).
---Bearish: 10%. Below $25 needs earnings miss. Low $25 put volume.