GBPUSD - Sell trade July 24 2024I'm Back!
- busy with some learning materials as I level up on analysis and data.
attached here is the GBPUSD
july 24 2024 trade.
I noticed supply introduced in daily TF up to 4H TF ( markets are fractal) . It makes me conclude that it will be a bearish momentum (correction) because of wyckoff accumulation last week. As I continue to monitor the charts during London session, I noticed liquidity sweep in highs of the structure, so I create an alert in my algorithm to alarm when it noticed a tiny supply introduced in 15 min TF. Setting a pending order aiming to have 5:1 RR. During N.Y session, it moves according to plan, coming to fruition this morning (PH time) .
(check charts for a detailed analysis) # wyckoffdistribution #algorithm #supplyanddemand
Tradingsetup
EURUSD analysis new weekFundamental analysis
Broad market hopes for a faster pace of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) peaked on Friday despite producer price index (PPI) wholesale inflation. of the United States increased significantly. The Fiber index extended its third straight weekly gain as investors' risk appetite was kept at a ceiling.
US Retail Sales figures will be released next Tuesday and Euro traders will have to wait for the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest interest rate call next week, which is expected takes place early next Thursday. The ECB recently delivered a quarter-point rate cut in early June, but further cuts appear unlikely and markets are generally forecast to cautiously leave rates unchanged in July.
Technical analysis
EUR/USD notched a third straight weekly gain, closing Friday slightly above 1.0900. The pair is up 2.3% from its late-June lows and the day's price action is preparing for a clash with the next technical resistance around 1,097. Beyond this peak, EURUSD will continue to move towards the previous year's high at 1,112. In the pullback the direct support level is at the point where investors fought a lot before choosing the winning BUY side at the 1.082 price zone, which is the same zone supported by the two EMAs. In a trend reversal next week's low could reach around 1,068.
Support: 1,082-1,068
Resistance: 1,097-1,112
SELL EURUSD zone 1.082-1.084 Stoploss 1.085
SELL EURUSD zone 1.112-1.114 Stoploss 1.115
BUY EURUSD zone 1.082-1.080 Stoploss 1.079
BUY EURUSD zone 1.068-1.066 Stoploss 1.065
Gold will soon hit the 2500 markFundamental analysis
Gold prices edged up slightly above $2,470 a troy ounce on Thursday, remaining near record highs amid growing optimism that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September. Low Interest Rates makes non-yielding assets like Gold more attractive to investors.
Federal Reserve officials have expressed growing confidence that the pace of price increases is now more in line with policymakers' goals. Traders will likely keep an eye on weekly US Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday, along with a speech by the Fed's Lorie Logan.
Technical analysis
However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly below the 70 level, suggesting confirmation of the bullish trend but also overbought conditions for the asset. A correction can be expected in the short term.
. A breakout above this 2470 level could see the pair test the old peak of 2484 and a gradual move towards the psychological level of 2500
On the downside, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA 34) on the h4 timeframe is forming two strong support levels at 2,440 which could act as immediate support, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel at $2,421. A break below the latter could put downward pressure on the XAU/USD pair to navigate the area around the regression support at $2,290.
Support: 2450 - 2442 - 2432
Resistance: 2485 - 2495 - 2500 - 2515 - 2525
BUY zone 2442 - 2440 stoploss 2436
BUY zone 2432 - 2430 stoploss 2426
SELL zone 2485 stoploss 2490
SELL zone 2500 stoploss 2500
Gold is about to welcome a low interest rate cycle☘️Fundamental analysis
Gold prices ended their decline in early European trading on Monday. Gold will gain further amid dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). In fact, market participants appear to believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates in September, which is seen as a boost for the yellow metal.
Additionally, US political anxiety following the assassination of former US President Donald Trump and China's economic difficulties confirm the positive short-term outlook for XAU/USD.
☘️Technical analysis
From a technical perspective, the strong recovery after touching the 2400 support zone has shown that investor sentiment is still supporting the BUY side. Buying power is further strengthened when RSI always remains stable above 50.
If the pre-market reaction is small and continued selling at 2410 could pull gold towards the key support area at 2393. A further decline could expose support at the 89 EMA in the h4 frame and this is a controversial price area around 2370-2368.
In the direction that the whole market is expecting. Last week's high, around $2,425 now appears to be acting as an immediate barrier, above which Gold prices are more likely to return to challenge all-time highs, around 2,450.
Support: 2393 - 2382- 2370
Resistance: 2425 - 2433 - 2448
Trading signals
BUY GOLD 2393-2391 Stoploss 2387
BUY GOLD 2370-2368 Stoploss 2365
SELL GOLD 2433-2435 Stoploss 2438
SELL GOLD 2448-2450 Stop loss 2453
EURUSD analysis week 28☘️The EUR/USD exchange rate fluctuated strongly after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report was released mixed on Friday. The price is trading around 1,083 near the three-week peak.
☘️European industrial output fell more sharply than expected. EU-wide retail sales beat forecasts, coming in at 0.3% year-on-year versus an expected 0.1%, but still down from 0.6% previously.
☘️Yarn traders will pay attention to the appearance of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday, followed by final inflation figures from both the EU and US on Thursday. Next Friday will close out next week with German Retail Sales, as well as US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation and the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index survey results.
☘️GBPUSD has approached the 1.085 peak area, continuing to bring EURO back to being the world's leading currency. Momentum has shifted in favor of buyers as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) price increase. The nearest resistance level at 1,085 should prevent a surprise rally after the US data. If the price breaks through that level, the price will reach a recent two-month high around 1,090. On the other hand, if the sellers push the price down, the pair has many important support levels to maintain the stability of the uptrend first around the disputed 1,079 EMA support zone. If this support fails, the next demand zone will be the Break out of the sideway trend at 1.075.
Support: 1,085-1,089
Resistance: 1.079-1.075
Trading signals
SELL EURUSD zone 1.089-1.091 SL 1.093
BUY EURUSD zone 1.075-1.073 SL 1.071
BUY GOLD, GOLD TO 2500 potentially. Gold is currently testing support lvl at 2383 . We should expect gold to find support there and move upward to 2402 .
If price moves lower I would buy at the next support lvl ( 2363 ) and take that back up. Gold is in a major uptrend and will find more support and move higher. My expectation is $2500. We risk at our lvls(2363,2383). If gold moves lower we readjust for sells.
Don’t let short term trends fool you. Gold will move higher.
GBPUSD July 4 analysisGBP/USD hovers around 1.2750 on UK election day
GBP/USD is trading sideways near 1.2750 during the European session on Thursday. A generally weaker US dollar helped the pair maintain its upward momentum but traders did not place further bets on the British Pound as British voters went to the polls.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has risen above 60, reflecting accumulating bullish momentum. Additionally, the last 4-hour candle closed above the 100-period Simple Moving Average.
On the positive side, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart form strong resistance near 1.2700. In case GBP/USD rises above this level and begins to use it as support, technical buyers may remain interested. In this scenario, 1.2750 (static level) and 1.2800 (static level, psychological level) can be considered as the next resistance.
If GBP/USD fails to break above 1.2700, it could trigger a technical correction. The 100-day SMA links to key support at 1.2640 ahead of 1.2600 (psychological level, static level).
Trading signals
BUY GBPUSD zone 1.27000-1.26800
↠ Stoploss 1.06700
→ Take Profit 1 1.27500
→ Take Profit 2 1.28000
SELL GBPUSD zone 1.28000-1.28200
↠ Stoploss 1.28300
→ Take Profit 1 1.27700
→ Take Profit 2 1.27000
VBL/SWING TRADE# ENGULFING CANDLE AT RTST LEVEL
#TALING SUPPORT FROM MA21 EMA 21
# SL 1573
ALWAYS TAKE RISK REWARDS INTO ACCOUNT. IT IS THE CORE STRENGTH OF TRADING.
NO MATTER WHAT END OF THE DAY WHAT YOU EARN - WHAT YOU LOSE =RETURNS
"Investing in the stock market involves balancing risk and reward. Higher potential returns typically come with higher risk, while safer investments may offer lower returns. It's essential to assess your risk tolerance and investment goals carefully. Diversifying your portfolio can help manage risk. Remember, informed decisions and a long-term perspective are key to navigating the complexities of the market."
World gold prices soared as the USD cooledWorld gold prices soared as the USD cooled after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made less hawkish statements on monetary policy.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed satisfaction with the pace of cooling in US inflation over the past year. This is a less hawkish signal about monetary policy.
The DXY index - measuring the greenback's fluctuations against six major currencies - fell from 106 points to 105.4 points on the US market. Gold prices immediately increased.
Investors are betting on the possibility that the Fed will have to consider the possibility that cutting interest rates too late could affect the recovery and growth of the US economy.
SRF/SWING TRADE # PRICE LOOKING BACK TO PREVIOUS TREND
#PRICE TRADING IN A PATTERN
# TAKING SUPPORT FROM MA 21 MA 50 EMA 21
#SL 2370
ALWAYS TAKE RISK REWARDS INTO ACCOUNT. IT IS THE CORE STRENGTH OF TRADING.
NO MATTER WHAT END OF THE DAY WHAT YOU EARN - WHAT YOU LOSE =RETURNS
"Investing in the stock market involves balancing risk and reward. Higher potential returns typically come with higher risk, while safer investments may offer lower returns. It's essential to assess your risk tolerance and investment goals carefully. Diversifying your portfolio can help manage risk. Remember, informed decisions and a long-term perspective are key to navigating the complexities of the market."
Gold analysis (June 24) How is GOLD after the sharp decline ?📌On Friday, when data released by S&P Global showed that the US PMI data for June was generally better than expected, the US Dollar strengthened and spot gold plummeted more than 38 USD. U.S. business activity hit a 26-month high in June amid a recovery in employment and a significant reduction in price pressures. The FED emphasized that more evidence of cooling inflation is needed before cutting interest rates. These statements supported the trend of the US Dollar during the week.
📌Notable economic data and events next week
Tuesday: US consumer confidence index
Wednesday: US new home sales index
Thursday: Final Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, core durable goods, US pending home sales index
Friday: PCE price index, personal income and spending
📌On the h2 chart, after gold could not break the 2370 resistance zone to reach 2385, gold fell to 2320 after positive economic data from the US. Strong selling pressure brought gold prices back to a very important position. The important thing for the uptrend is that the rising trendline continues to be maintained.
📌In terms of closing position, gold has conditions to continue to decline with a target level that could target the original price point of 2,300 USD in the short term if gold has a nice recovery to the important fibonacci areas around 2336 or 2343. In the opposite direction, gold can still maintain an uptrend if this support level of 2320 still holds and supports gold prices trading above 2343.
📌The overall technical picture is constantly changing with very large price movements occurring regularly, and currently technical conditions are more supportive of the bearish possibility although there is still support in the pipeline. short term mentioned above.
Support: 2316 - 2311- 2300
Resistance: 2323 - 2337 - 2346
SELL zone 2335 - 2337 stoploss 2340
SELL zone 2346 - 2348 stoploss 2351
BUY zone 2311 - 2309 stoploss 2306
BUY zone 2302 - 2300 stoploss 2297
HBS.N0000Next Resistance Level - 12.5
Support Level - 11
Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Nasdaq - We still have to be careful!TVC:NDQ is still retesting resistance after we just saw an expected rally of +75%.
More than a decade ago, the Nasdaq entered one of the most profitable and easy to trade patterns: a rising channel formation. In the beginning of 2023 the Nasdaq once again retested the lower support trendline in confluence with a retest of horizontal support and continued its bullrun from there. But currently resistance is ahead so we have to be quite careful and properly monitor price action on the smaller timeframes.
Levels to watch: $19.000, $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
S&P500 - Where will we go next?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at the S&P500 .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Fore more than a decade, the S&P500 has been trading in a pretty clean rising channel formation. We had the last retest of support in 2022, which was followed by bullish confirmation and a rally of +45% in 1.5 years. At the moment the S&P500 is neither retesting support nor resistance and the path of least resistance is simply higher.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Attention price range before FOMCGold dropped from peak to 2,340 USD before Fed information
After CPI rose to a three-day high past the $2,340/troy ounce mark, gold prices now appear to have digested that initial move and returned some gains amid a weaker dollar and Yields fell ahead of the FOMC event later in the session.
The 2340 level is unlikely to hold before the FOMC. The 2352 resistance zone will be better for you if you want to SELL gold. Today it is predicted that the FOMC will continue to support the dollar, so the possibility of gold falling will be very high. Scalp support may be around the old bottom of 2390
AMD - Trading opportunity is almost there!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at AMD .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
The stock chart of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is looking quite interesting at the moment: A couple of months ago AMD broke out of a major symmetrical triangle formation, creating another rally of roughly +100%. But at the moment AMD also already corrected roughly -40% and is approaching a major confluence of support at the $125 level from which we could see another bullish reversal and rally.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Alibaba - Back to bearish (not)?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Alibaba .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
After Alibaba broke below the major support trendline in 2021 we saw a massive correction of -75% towards the downside. Alibaba was then retesting another major level, this time a previous support area which is at $60. So far Alibaba stock is still respecting the bearish trendline, but it is just a matter of time until we will see a bullish trading opportunity on this stock.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
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⬛️ Left Screen: Real-time order flow from a combined chart of three major exchanges to catch big capital moves and clusters of Bid/Ask orders.
⬛️ Center Screen: In-depth on-chain and social analytics to gauge sentiment, activity, and key market behaviors.
⬛️ Right Screen: Advanced charting tools for detailed technical analysis, using specialized indicators and candlestick models to forecast price direction.
🔑 The secret to a reliable price direction analysis at 65% accuracy lies in these tools. Sorry for the photo skills, I’m better at trading! 🤣
Disclaimer: Content for seasoned traders only. Not financial advice. You bear sole responsibility for trading outcomes. ➖ DYOR 🧠 💡
Amazon - Two trading setups!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Amazon.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
In 2020 Amazon stock created massive resistance roughly at the $180 level and started a major correction away from the resistance in 2022. As we are speaking Amazon stock is once again retesting this major resistance level and is therefore at a quite decisive inflection point. Either we will see a breakout or another rejection after which we could then see the overall continuation towards the upside.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Foreign exchange trading skills worth collecting (Part 2)
Continuing from the previous article;
25. Observe the magnitude of market changes: When the market falls (rises) with the same small amount every day, it may be a signal of a rebound (fall).
26. The dense area is likely to form a support belt or pressure belt: The dense area can be regarded as an obstacle to slow down the market price fluctuations. Once the trading range is broken, the price will make progress. Generally speaking, the longer the trading range lasts, the greater the price movement after the breakout.
27. Significant price rises and falls are often accompanied by key reversals: When the price hits a new high on high trading volume, then falls and closes lower than the previous day, it is usually a reversal phenomenon in the uptrend. The reversal in the downtrend is that the price first goes down, then rebounds strongly on the same day, and finally closes at a higher closing price than the previous day.
28. Pay attention to the head and shoulders pattern: When a head and shoulders pattern is formed on the price chart, it is usually a signal of a big rise. The appearance of the head and shoulders will not be clear until the second shoulder rebounds or pulls back to the level.
29. Pay attention to the highest point of "M" and the lowest point of "W": When the market trend forms a large M on the price chart, it suggests that you can sell. When it forms a W, it suggests that the price will rise.
30. Buy and sell at three highs and three lows: When the market climbs to a peak for the second or third time, it is a bearish signal; otherwise, it is a bullish signal.
31. Observe changes in trading volume: When trading volume rises with price, it is a buy signal. When trading volume increases and prices fall, it is a sell signal, but when trading volume decreases, no matter how the price moves, it is a wait-and-see or expecting a reversal signal.
32. The amount of open contracts can also provide intelligence: If open contracts increase when prices rise, it is a buy signal, especially when trading volume increases at the same time. Conversely, if open contracts increase when prices fall and trading volume is large, it provides sell information.
33. Pay attention to the fact that things will turn around when they reach their extremes, and good times will come after bad times: when a rising trend is very strong, pay attention to the implicit downward trend and pay attention to negative factors at any time; when a falling trend is very weak, pay attention to the implicit recovery information, pay more attention to positive news, and beware of market reversals.
34. Carefully judge the news effect: first, judge the authenticity of the news; second, understand the timeliness of the news; third, analyze the importance of the news; and finally, study the indicative nature of the news.
35. Retire before the delivery period: Commodity prices will have relatively large fluctuations in the delivery month. Commodity trading novices should move to other commodities before this to avoid this additional risk. The potential profits during the delivery period should be sought by experienced spot market traders.
36. Buy and sell when the market breaks through the opening price: This is a good hint of price trends, especially after a major news report. A breakthrough in the opening price may indicate the trend of trading that day or in the next few days. If the market breaks through the upper limit of the opening price, buy; if the breakthrough point is at the lower limit of the opening price, sell.
37. Buy and sell at the previous day's closing price breakthrough point: Many successful traders use this rule to decide when to establish new contracts or increase contracts. It means buying only when the transaction price is higher than the previous day's closing price; or selling when the transaction price is lower than the previous day's closing price.
38. Buy and sell at the previous week's high and low price breakthrough points: This rule is similar to the daily rule mentioned above, but his high and low prices are predicted based on the high point of the week. When the market breaks through the highest point of the week, it is a buy signal; when the market breaks through the lowest point of the week, it is a sell signal.
39. Buy and sell at the previous month's high and low price breakthrough points: The longer you observe, the more market momentum your decision will be based on. Therefore, the price breakthrough point of each month is a stronger hint of price trend, which is more important for futures commodity traders or hedge traders to make or break.
40. Establish pyramid trading: When you add contracts, do not add more contracts than the first one. This is a dangerous trading technique because as long as the market reverses slightly, all your profits will be wiped out. In the inverted pyramid trading, the average cost is close to the market price, which will hurt you.
41. Be careful with stop loss orders: The use of stop loss orders is a simple self-discipline; it can help you stop losses automatically. An important factor is: when you place an order, you must also set a stop loss point at the same time. If you don’t do this, you will lose more money and increase your losses in vain.
42. The retracement in a bull market is not the same as the bear market: conversely, the rebound in the bear market is not a bull market. Most investors like to short in a bull market and believe that it will definitely retrace, and vice versa. Change the rhythm and learn to buy in the retracement in the bull market and short in the rebound of the bear market. You will get more profits.
43. Buy and sell when the price is out of the track: Some successful traders use this rule most often. They buy and sell when prices are out of the norm or beyond general expectations. If ordinary buyers and sellers believe that market prices are rising, but in fact they are not, it is usually a good sell signal, especially after important information is released. Successful traders will wait for the general public to lean to one side, and then choose the time to buy and sell in the opposite direction.
44. The market will always fluctuate in a narrow range after violent fluctuations: when the market stabilizes after a sharp rise or a heavy fall, you must observe when the actual buying or selling begins to increase steadily, so that you can understand whether the market is ready to start, and take the opportunity to get on the train and wait to earn a wave of market.
45. When the bulls are rampant, the rise will slow down: if the market is filled with strong bullish arrogance, the price will not rise easily. Why is this so? When everyone is bullish and enters the market to do more, who can buy again and push the market up? Therefore, the price can only continue to rise after the people who originally did more can't stand the price softening and exit the market.
46. Buy and sell at the breakout points of rising and falling wedges: Any trend has its own process of brewing, generation, and development. When recorded on a chart, it will take on a certain shape. Once a certain pattern is formed, it usually has a considerable enlightenment effect on the future market development. Although it is not absolute, it has a high probability and has its reference value.
47. Don't buy and sell multiple commodities at the same time: If you try to pay attention to the pulse of many markets, that is, if you want to grasp the news of several markets at the same time, you will hurt yourself. Few people can succeed in both the stock index and the grain market at the same time because they are affected by irrelevant factors.
48. Don't add to the losing commodities: No matter how confident you are, don't add contracts to the commodities that have already lost money. If you do that, it shows that you can no longer keep up with the market, but some traders disagree with this rule and prefer to believe in a price averaging technology.
49. In a bear market, put aside the statistical reports: In a bear market, you must be able to ignore all the statistical figures and focus on the market trend. You must understand that the figures to be published reflect the past, not the future. The figures to be published in the future are the results of the present and the near future.
50. The market can only give you so much, so don't hold unrealistic expectations: Some operators always hope to make every penny in the market; trying to squeeze the last drop of profit in the market, the time and energy spent are not worth it; a fish is divided into three parts: the head, the body, and the tail, and the largest part is the body; the operator only needs to find a way to eat the fish meat, and leave the head and tail for others to eat.
I hope it helps you. The rest will be updated in new articles. If you need it, you can check it on the homepage after following it.
XRP - 90% Probability trade!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at XRP.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
In 2017 XRP created a major triangle breakout and rallied more than +35.000% towards the upside. Since the beginning of 2018 XRP has once again been creating a triangle formation and is about to retest the lower support of the pattern which is perfectly lining up with a horizontal structure, creating a confluence of support at the $0.48 level. If we do get bullish confirmation, a bullish rejection is very likely to happen.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Binance Coin - Is the rally already over?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Binance Coin .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Binance Coin is currently clearly retesting a major resistance at the previous $700 level which was also the all time high of Binance Coin. Since we did not see a break above yet, there is simply a higher chance that we will see a (short term) move lower. If you are not in a position on BNB yet, you can potentially use this anticipated drop to enter a fresh trade.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Alibaba - Trading opportunity is finally there!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Alibaba .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Almost a decade ago Alibaba stock retested a strong support at the psychological $60 level and reversed significantly towards the upside. Just a couple of months ago Alibaba stock once again retested this support and created an anticipated reversal. If Alibaba stock actually manages to break above the current resistance trendline, we could maybe see a similar rally like we saw in 2015 and the following years.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)