short term strategy when XAU is highCentral bank demand for gold is a key factor that has been a catalyst for the gold price rally. She said that gold continues to outperform other commodities as demand for the precious metal increases, especially from central banks in emerging markets.
The precious metal's role as a natural hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. At the same time, in an environment of geopolitical tension, gold remains the top choice.
Tradingsignals
USOIL / UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
currently prices trading above turning level at 78.74 , overall under bullish pressure.
In order for the price to reach 71.59, it first needs to establish a period of stabilization above two critical levels: 68.74 and 69.98. These levels act as key support zones, signaling strength in the market if maintained. Once stability is confirmed above 69.98, upward momentum is expected to build, pushing the price toward 71.59. If this bullish trend continues, the price may extend further, reaching the next target at 74.24.
However, if the price fails to hold above 68.74, it indicates weakening bullish momentum, and the market may shift towards a downtrend. In this scenario, breaking the turning level at 68.74 could trigger a decline toward 65.35. A more pronounced drop could push the price even lower if this support level is breached.
TURNING LEVEL : 68.74
NAS100USD / TRADING BELOW SUPPLY ZONE - 4H NAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
yesterday prices rising +225 pip profit currently trading below the resistance trend line may be rising into supply zone after decline to reach 19,187.
As long as the price remains below 19,954, a decline is expected, with potential targets of 19,187 and subsequently 18,688.
However, if the price breaks above 19,954, the trend is likely to shift upwards, initially aiming for 20,194 and potentially reaching as high as 20,714.
TURNING LEVEL : 19,954
XAUUSD / REACHED NEW HISTORICAL PEAKS - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
as mentioned in the last chart stabilizing above 2,526$ rising and reach historical peak , reached + 240 pip profit .
Currently, prices are trading above $2,531. As long as they remain above this level, an upward movement is expected towards $2,560 and $2,570. This rise is likely to continue as long as prices trade above $2,526 and $2,519.
However, if the price breaks below $2,519, a decline is anticipated, with the first target being $2,507, followed by $2,491.
TURNING LEVEL : 2,519$
Gold Price Analysis September 13Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices maintained modest intraday gains heading into the European session on Friday and are currently hovering near the $2,565-2,570 region, or record highs. A softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report released on Thursday provided further evidence of easing inflation and raised expectations of a larger rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. This was reinforced by a fresh drop in US Treasury yields, which dragged the US dollar (USD) to its lowest in more than a week and continued to act as a bullish driver for the non-yielding yellow metal.
In addition, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine also provided additional support for safe-haven gold. This, in turn, confirms the overnight breakout through a multi-week trading range and supports the outlook for a short-term bullish move.
Technical Analysis
Profit-taking by some investors at the end of the Asian session pushed the price to 2563 and continued to push it up when the European session entered. Today's scenario is that gold retreats to the 2560 zone and does not break this zone until the middle of the European session, so we can buy back to the target zone of 2574-2580. In the direction of breaking through the 2560 zone, we will not sell retest but wait for the BUY zones of 2555 and 2545. BUY signals can hold TP far away at the present time because gold can completely create ATH in the near future
Price zones to pay attention to according to the scenario: 2555-2545-2560-2575-2580.
USOIL / TRADING SENSITIVE AREA - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
In the last chart as mentioned rising and reached +100 pip profit.
Currently, prices are trading above 68.74. As long as they remain and stabilize above this level, a rise toward 69.98 is expected. To confirm an uptrend, prices need to break above 69.98, potentially reaching 71.59. On the downside,
if prices stabilize below 68.74, a decline toward 65.35 is anticipated, and if they fall further below this level, they could reach 63.67.
TURNING LEVEL : 68.74
NAS100USD / UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE - 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
after breaking a turning level NAS100USD remain under bullish pressure .
After breaking a critical turning level at 19,088, the current price movement is attempting to reach the first resistance level at 19,535. If this level is surpassed, the next potential target is 19,844.
However, if the price breaks below 19,088 on a 4-hour candle, a decline toward 18,688 is anticipated. Should the price stabilize below 18,688, further downside pressure could lead to a drop towards the next support level at 18,317.
TURNING LEVEL : 19,088
Gold Analysis September 12Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices rose on an overnight rebound from the psychological $2,500 mark and gained some positive momentum on Thursday. Growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its policy easing cycle and lower borrowing costs next week turned out to be a major factor acting as a boost for the non-yielding yellow metal. That said, bearish bets on a larger Fed rate cut at the end of the September 17-18 policy meeting have pushed the US Dollar (USD) closer to its monthly peak and should limit gains for the commodity.
In addition, a generally positive tone around the equity markets is likely to undermine traditional safe-haven assets and deter traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around Gold prices. Furthermore, the recent range-bound price action and repeated failures to find acceptance above the $2,530-2,532 zone or the all-time high reached in August, make it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for further gains. Traders are now looking forward to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for fresh impetus.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices pushed up to 2521 in the late Asian session and as the European session began, prices are being pushed back down. The area of interest is the 2512 zone as prices failed to break through until mid-European session, then BUYing back up to 2528 before the US. Breaking 2528 holds until the 2555.xx peak. In the opposite direction when the 2512 zone is broken, wait for retest to sell to 2500 and 2595. In case gold does not push to 12 but flies away, sell again in the 2528-2530 zone.
SELL 2543 - 2545 Stoploss 2549
BUY 2503 - 2501. Stoploss 2498
BUY 2496 - 2494. Stoploss 249
Forecasts suggest that the Fed will decrease by 25 pointsTaking advantage of the opportunity is still there, says RJO Futures senior market strategist Bob Haberkorn. If the Fed decides to reduce it by 50 points, it would mean that the Central Bank of America is surrendering its ability to play.
The results of the Reuters visit showed that most participating economists think the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining main meetings in 2024. The poll showed that only 9 of the 101 economists expect a half-percent cut next week.
Independent metals trader Tai Wong said that the rise in core CPI has more or less reinforced the possibility that the Fed will proceed with a 25 basis point cut next week. Gold prices may have to wait a little longer to reach new record highs.
💎 TVC:GOLD Buy 2485 - 2487💎
✔️TP1: 2500
✔️TP2: 2510
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2480
💎 TVC:GOLD Sell 2525 - 2527💎
✔️TP1: 2510
✔️TP2: 2490
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2535
CHFJPY: Pullback From Key Support 🇨🇭🇯🇵
There is a high chance that CHFJPY will pullback
from a horizontal daily key level.
I see a nice confirmation after its test - an inverted cup and handle pattern
and breakout of its neckline.
I expect a bullish move at least to 167.75
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
The market is now paying attention to some US producer pricesWorld gold prices reversed and decreased slightly with spot gold down 5.9 USD to 2,511.8 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at $2,540.30 an ounce, down $5.60 from the bright spot.
Expectations for an interest rate cut at next week's main meeting decreased somewhat after the consumer price report put upward pressure on gold, causing the precious metal to lose 0.2% on the day. Accordingly, the latest report found that consumer prices in the US increased slightly in August, but underlying utilization remained stable, which may make the US Federal Reserve (Fed) unable to decided to reduce 50 basis points next week.
💎 OANDA:XAUUSD Buy 2485 - 2487💎
✔️TP1: 2500
✔️TP2: 2510
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2480
💎 OANDA:XAUUSD Sell 2522 - 2525💎
✔️TP1: 2510
✔️TP2: 2500
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2533
XAUUSD / UNDER CPI PRESSURE - 4HXAUUSD - 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
USDJPY , is currently trading below the supply zone between 2,519$ and 2,526$ and remains below the resistance trendline, indicating downward momentum. There are two potential scenarios:
First Scenario (CPI Higher than Expected)
If the CPI reading comes in higher than expected, this typically indicates stronger inflation. In response, the market may anticipate the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, like raising interest rates. Higher rates strengthen the U.S. dollar and increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold , A higher CPI reading would be perceived as , In this case, gold could drop to 2,507$ , and potentially further down to 2,491$ , After this, stabilization is expected below this range, possibly reaching 2,472$ .
Second Scenario (CPI Lower than Expected)
If the CPI reading is lower than expected, it suggests that inflation is easing. This could lead to expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause or slow rate hikes, which could weaken the U.S. dollar and benefit gold, A lower CPI reading would be , The price could rise to 2,526$ , then 2,531$ , Above these levels, gold might reach a new historical peak at 2,551$.
UPWARD TARGET :
2,526$ , 2,531$ , 2,551$.
DOWNWARD TARGET :
2,507$ , 2,491$ , 2,472$.
NAS100USD / TRADING INTO SENSITIVE AREA - 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Current Market Analysis:
The current price is trading within a sensitive range, specifically between the support level at 18,688 and the resistance level at 19,088. The direction of future price movements will largely depend on a breakout on either side of this range.
- Downward Condition:
If the price breaks below 18,688 and stabilizes beneath this level, it may signal a potential decline. In this case, the price could drop to test the next support levels at 18,317 and 17,876.
-Upward Condition:
Conversely, if the price breaks above 19,088 and stabilizes above this resistance, it may indicate a bullish move. The price could then rise towards 19,535, and if momentum continues, it may further ascend to 19,844.
Upward Target :
19,535 , 19,844.
Downward Target :
18,317 , 17,876.
Gold analysis september 11Fundamental Analysis
The steady rise continued throughout the early part of the European session and took the commodity to a fresh weekly high, with buyers now looking to build on the upside momentum beyond the $2,525-2,526 supply zone. The US Dollar (USD) is struggling to capitalize on the gains recorded over the past three days and retreated from the monthly top amid dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, a weaker risk-on sentiment in general has prompted some safe-haven flows and lifted Gold closer to its all-time high in the last hour. However, bulls may refrain from positioning for any further upside moves and prefer to pause ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures. The key US CPI report will play a key role in influencing market expectations on the size of the Fed’s September rate cut and determine the next leg of the directional move for the precious metal.
Technical Analysis
Gold’s push to 2529 in European trading promises a breakout of all-time highs early today. The current key zone around 2529 in European trading could push prices back to 2540. The top is a push to the psychological port zone which is also the Fibonacci level of 2555. Conversely, if 2029 fails to break, prices could soon push to the 2517 zone before the CPI data and also the US session. and revisit the 2495 support zone and 2555 resistance when the news is released. because if the news pushes up, there will be no good entry to sell until the 2540 and 2555 areas.
Resistance above: 2535 - 2540 - 2550-2555…
Support: 2512 - 2506 - 2499 - 2493 - 2485
SELL 2537 - 2529 Stoploss 2442
SELL 2554 - 2556 Stoploss 2559
BUY 2508 - 2506 Stoploss 2503
BUY 2496 - 2494. Stoploss 2491
XAUUSD / STILL CONTINUES A DOWNTREND - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
overall , prices under downward pressure , until trading below 2,507$ , yesterday prices rising to reach turning level , currently trading below it , have two scenario .
The first scenario, where gold prices remain below2,507$, suggests a downtrend because this level is acting as resistance. If prices continue to struggle below this threshold, it increases the likelihood of further declines toward the support levels at 2,491$ and 2,472$. Breaking and stabilizing below the supply zone between 2,472$ and 2,459$ would confirm a bearish trend, as it indicates that sellers are overpowering buyers, driving prices down.
In the second scenario, if the price closes a 4-hour candle above 2,507$, it signals bullish momentum. This would likely push prices to test the next resistance levels at2,519$ and 2,531$. Additionally, if the price stabilizes above 2,526$, it would suggest a breakout from the current range, potentially driving prices to new historical peaks around 2,551$. This is because breaking through key resistance often signals strong buyer interest, pushing prices higher.
KEY LEVELS :
Turning Level : 2,507$.
Resistance Levels : 2,519$ , 2,526$ , 2,531$.
Support Levels : 2,491$ , 2,472$ , 2,459$.
AUDCHF Potential Channel breakoutAUDCHF is consolidating after breaking and closing below the key psychological level of 0.5700. The overall trend remains bearish, and the market recently bounced off a resistance zone. On the daily chart, there was a sell-off followed by a pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The price consolidated around this level before moving lower, breaking through last week's lows. The market now appears ready to break through the channel's border, which could signal a continuation of the bearish trend. The target is the support level at 0.56400
USOIL / UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
USOIL is currently trading above the turning level of 67.09 and remains above the support trendline, indicating upward momentum. There are two potential scenarios:
The First Scenario , USOIL's trading above 67.09 and staying above the support trendline signals strong buying interest, which suggests upward pressure. The target of 69.98 is a logical resistance level, followed by 71.59, which marks the next significant zone. Stabilization above 71.59 and 72.20 would confirm the strength of the uptrend, as breaking these levels would show that demand is outpacing supply, leading to further price gains.
The Second Scenario , If USOIL fails to maintain the 67.09 level and closes below it on a 1-hour or 4-hour chart, it indicates bearish momentum. This would increase the likelihood of a decline toward 65.35 and 63.67, the next significant support levels. A break below 65.35 could trigger a stronger downtrend as it would suggest sellers are gaining control, particularly if the price falls below the descending channel, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
KEY LEVELS :
Turning Level : 67.09.
Resistance Levels : 69.98 , 71.59.
Support Levels : 65.35 , 63.67.
The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis At the beginning of the trading session in the US market, world gold prices increased, and consultants strongly bought gold. The US August jobs report was bullish, giving the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) main currency comfort expectations increasingly high.
Experts say that the number of new jobs in August reached 142,000, lower than the 160,000 jobs previously expected. This has important implications for the Fed's monetary policy.
Furthermore, the unemployment rate decreased slightly from 4.3% to 4.2% but remained high compared to the 3.8% rate recorded a year earlier. The total number of failures has increased from 6.3 million to 7.1 million in the past year, a radical index over the past 3 years, which is building up the Fed's impending interest rate cut.
Experts say that the direction of gold in the near future still depends mainly on the Fed's interest rate policy. If the next US economic data is still good, it will cause the Fed to cut more. This helps gold prices reach new heights.
Gold price analysis September 10Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices struggled to capitalize on yesterday’s rebound from the $2,485 support zone and attracted some selling on Tuesday. However, the commodity held above the psychological $2,500 mark during the early part of the European session as traders appeared reluctant to place directional bets ahead of this week’s US inflation figures. The key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. The data will influence market expectations on the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut later this month and provide fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Heading into the key data risk, the US Dollar (USD) edged closer to the monthly high reached last week amid bearish bets for a larger Fed rate cut in September. This, coupled with a solid performance in global equity markets, is seen undermining safe-haven Gold. Despite the decline, XAU/USD remains confined within a familiar range that has been maintained for about the past three weeks, indicating hesitation among traders about the short-term trajectory. This makes it more prudent to wait for a sharp sell-off to follow before positioning for the recent pullback from the vicinity of the all-time high tested after the release of the mixed US jobs report last Friday.
Technical Analysis
Gold is still approaching the key 2507 price zone. The European session is trying to push above this level to resume the uptrend. SELL signal in this area can be when the price pushes up in the middle of the European session and cannot break it, we SELL and hold until the US session. If the 2495 area is broken, we hold until the US session at the 2483 area. In case gold increases to 2507, we do not BUY and wait to SELL in the 2515-2517 area. The destination is the 2507-2505 area.
SELL 2516 - 2518. Stoploss 2522
BUY 2485 - 2483. Stoploss 2479
BUY 2473 - 2471. Stoploss 2467
Waiting for US economic dataThe gold market continues to be in a very strong position, delaying 23.6% of its price decline. This retracement level was held recently on 4/23/24, 5/6/24 and again on 7/25/24.
You can also find support and resistance fields in the main Gann boxes at high and low levels.
Use the main Gann square 2514.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above that, the long term limit of the entry is 2775.00. The short target is the next largest Gann square at 2578.40.
Below it, there is a 23.6% return to the October 2022 low of 2422.00. Any rally that holds the 38.2% back to the 6/10/24 low maintains an extremely positive trend and could quickly reach new highs.
The dollar index (DXY00) rose +0.37% on Monday. Stronger-than-expected US economic news on Monday gave the dollar a boost. The dollar also rose on reduced expectations that the Fed will cut rates aggressively as markets are discounting the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting at 31%, down the line at 50%. following the release of the US payrolls report last Friday. The strength of Monday's vote reduced settlement demand for the dollar.
Monday's US economic news was supportive of the dollar. July wholesale revenue increased +1.1% over the previous month, stronger than expectations of +0.3% over the previous month and the largest increase in 5 months. In addition, consumer credit in July increased by +$25,452 billion, stronger than expectations of +$10.4 billion and the maximum increase in 1-1/2 years.
The current economic situation is waiting for the final CPI data to make the Fed's decision whether it is 25 points or 50 points.
September begins with weak US jobs market reportSeptember began with a weak US jobs report and news that Japan had raised interest rates from zero to 0.25%. This sent the CBOE Volatility Index (the “fear index”) soaring from 16 to 38, and crowd favorites like the yen carry trade and the world’s most important stock, Nvidia (NVDA), down double digits.
In his speech at Jackson Hole in late August, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at future rate cuts. “The time has come for policy to be recalibrated,” he said. “The path is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on the data, the outlook, and the balance of risks.” So they got the message. Rates are falling and the data is weak. The latest US jobs reports show fewer people being hired, fewer new jobs being created, and layoffs are happening more frequently.
GBPAUD What Next? SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on GBPAUD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 1.9644 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.9542
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDJPY / BREAKOUT THE CHANNEL - 1DUSDJPY / 1D TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Currently, prices are experiencing downward pressure and are trading below the turning level of 146.893. This suggests a bearish trend, especially after a breakout from the ascending channel. As long as prices remain below 146.893, the expectation is for them to move towards the next support level at 140.991. Should prices stabilize below this support level, the bearish trend may continue, targeting a further decline to 139.341.
On the other hand, if prices break above 146.893 and stabilize above this level, particularly above the Fair Value Gap (FVG), we could see a reversal in the trend. This bullish shift would suggest a potential rise in prices, with initial targets set at 152.034. If the upward momentum continues, prices could further increase to reach the target of 154.890.
KEY LEVELS :
Turning Level : 146.893 .
Resistance Levels : 152.034 , 154.890.
Support Levels : 140.991 , 139.341 .