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Bitcoin Trapped in a Range – Which Way Will It Break?BTC is currently accumulating within a marked zone, trading within a broad range of approximately $17,800. The previous resistance line has now turned into support, indicating a possible consolidation phase before the next move. The price is fluctuating near the 50 EMA ($97,811.26), which may act as dynamic resistance. A breakout above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, while failure to hold support may lead to further downside.
by unichartz
BTC Market Thesis – February 20, 2025Current Market Overview Current Price: $97,632 Open Position: $95,917.6 Decision: HOLD_BUY – The market is showing bullish momentum, suggesting further upside potential. Stop Loss: $95,000 Take Profit: $99,600 Confidence Level: 80% Technical & Market Indicators RSI (1h): Indicates bullish momentum, suggesting buyers are gaining control. MACD: Showing a moderate upward slope, signaling potential for further price appreciation. CME Options Data: Put/Call Ratio: 0.9 – slightly bullish as call options dominate. Open Interest: Moderate, meaning traders are engaged but not at extreme levels. Binance Perpetuals: Funding Rate: 0.01 – Market leaning slightly towards longs. Open Interest: 78,892 BTC, indicating a healthy level of market participation. Profit Ratio Today: 1.20 – Indicates that traders who entered today are mostly in profit, reinforcing positive sentiment. Possible Scenarios & Probability 1️⃣ Bullish Scenario (60% Probability) 📈 BTC breaks above $98,000 and reaches $99,600 Strong bullish sentiment pushes BTC past key resistance levels. RSI & MACD confirm continued upward momentum. Positive funding rate and moderate OI support a sustained uptrend. Institutional traders (CME data) continue to favor long positions. 2️⃣ Neutral Scenario (25% Probability) 🔄 BTC consolidates between $96,500 – $98,000 Some profit-taking slows the rally, but support at $96,500 holds. MACD remains positive but shows weakening momentum. Open Interest suggests indecision, with traders waiting for further signals. 3️⃣ Bearish Scenario (15% Probability) 📉 BTC drops below $96,500 and tests $95,000 Unexpected negative news or macroeconomic factors trigger a sell-off. RSI becomes overbought, leading to short-term correction. A decline in Open Interest suggests traders are closing positions. Final Takeaway Primary Strategy: Hold and monitor resistance at $98,000. Risk Management: A stop loss at $95,000 protects against unexpected downturns. Trigger to Sell: If BTC struggles at GETTEX:98K with weakening momentum, a short-term exit may be considered. Trigger to Buy More: A clean break above GETTEX:98K with strong volume confirms continuation to $99,600+.
by titankarma
Overtrading Chaos: Classroom Insights & Quick FixesWatching my students get caught up in the whirlwind of overtrading was like watching a rollercoaster ride gone wrong - all that excitement turned into stress, quick decisions based on gut feelings rather than strategy, and seeing their accounts shrink before my eyes. Here's what I've noticed firsthand: -Emotion Over Logic: They were making choices fueled by the fear of missing out or trying to get back at the market after a loss, not because it was the smart move. Spot on. Emotional trading is the quickest path to financial ruin. It's all about managing those emotions. -Exhaustion: The constant screen time was draining them, both physically and mentally. This is why I always preach about the importance of having a life outside of trading. Burnout is real and it clouds judgment. -Costly Habits: Those small fees and spreads started adding up, eating away at their profits with each impulsive trade. Always remember, every trade has a cost. Overtrading is like death by a thousand cuts. But here’s the good news - I've got some immediate steps I take to turn things around: 1)Trade Log Love: I get them to write down every trade, focusing on the reasons behind their decisions. It’s amazing how this simple act helps them learn from their actions. A trade log isn't just about accountability; it's about education. Every trade is a lesson. 2)Take a Breather: I enforce a little break after each trade. It's like hitting the reset button for your brain, ensuring the next trade isn't just a reaction to the last. This is critical. It’s about breaking the cycle of reactive trading. Think of it as forced discipline. 3)Quality Time: I shift the focus to waiting for those golden opportunities, teaching them that sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make. Patience in trading is not just a virtue; it's a strategy. The markets reward those who wait for the right moment. Come join me as I navigate through the overtrading storm, helping my students, and maybe you too, become more thoughtful, strategic traders! This is what I call practical wisdom. Overtrading is a symptom of not having a solid plan. I'd recommend this course of action to any trader looking to turn their habits around. Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade Smarter Live Better
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Mindbloome-Trading
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to start with an incline into the lower support regions in order to give us another long opportunity into the target level 2902 initially, which was our Excalibur target. Gold however had another plan and started the move from the open, this allowed us to trade on the red boxes and trade the move upside surpassing the target level into the highs that we witnessed last week. During the week, we update our traders with the path upside and suggested looking for the short trade from the Red box active level, which worked perfectly giving the move downside that we saw on Friday. It was a fantastic week in Camelot, not only completing 8 Gold targets on Excalibur, but also all the bias level and red box targets. Not to mention the targets completed on all the other pairs we share and analyse. Well done to the traders who followed! So, what can we expect in the week ahead? This week we’re looking for price to potentially give us further opportunities to short, however, we have a key level above of 2910! Support on the intra-day stands at 2870-65, which if targeted early session could give buyers the confidence they need to take that long into the 2890-5 region and above that 2904. There is an extension of the move into the 2910 region, but anywhere between the 2904-10 region are the levels we want to monitor for RIPs, and if they present themselves, the opportunity to take that swing short may be there again. The key order region (liquidity pool) is sitting below at 2850-55 which is a decent level for price to attempt, but this region needs to be broken to go lower! If broken, we won’t be looking to go long again until we’re closer to lower 2800’s, so please trade with caution this week. We do have higher targets on Gold, but, there needs to be a correction and if this is it, we’ll make sure to take advantage of it just like we have done for years, up, down, where ever it goes, we’ll trade it with our trusted pal Excalibur, the EA and our Red box indicators. Not much more to say, low volume news this week, Monday could be a ranging day so expect choppy and whipsawing price action. KOG’s bias for the week: Bullish above 2865 with targets above 2885, 2895, 2902 and above that 2910 Bearish on break of 2865 with targets below 2855, 2850, 2843, 2835 and below that 2828 RED BOXES: Break above 2885 for 2888, 2902, 2910 and 2913 in extension of the move Break below 2875 for 2870, 2865, 2857, 2855 and 2850 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
26
GOLD Would you like SeekingPips Live Market XAUUSD analysis?🟢SeekingPips🟢 has just learned that I am able to make CHART ANALYSIS VIDEOS in LIVE market conditions on this platform.🌎 (Yes I am a bit of a DINOSAUR 🦕) 🟢Marking up charts and sharing is great but ANALYSING & marking up charts in live market conditions is a different beast.✅️ ⚠️That is one way to filter the TRADERS from the MARKETERS. 🟢SeekingPips🟢 focus is always on the things that matter most I'm really not interested in the FANCY STUFF & NEITHER SHOULD YOU BE. ⭐️I ALWAYS preach TIME over PRICE showing it in real-time is like magic when you see it for yourself⭐️ 🌍I am happy to do so maybe twice a week if the interest is there.👍 ✅️I'm willing to show the practice what I preach in video format.✅️ ℹ️ I need to see the interaction on my post and chart shares to know that it will be worth the time and effort. 🟢SeekingPips🟢 is still working his way around some of the great tools for use on this platform, I am still being advised every week by some of my followers of some of the tools here on TradingView. Would shared VIDEOS be appreciated here?❔️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by seekingpips
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing ema5 play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2928 with a correction target above at 2890 before that with ema5 lagging and due a touch above. We need ema5 to cross below 2890 to open 2857 and lock above 2928 to open the range above. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2890 2928 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2928 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2959 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2959 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2992 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2992 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3024 BEARISH TARGETS EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2890 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 2857 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2857 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE 2813 - 2785 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2857 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2744 - 2713 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
10
Bitcoin Trading Thesis – February 11, 2025🔹 Current Price: $98,402 🔹 Action: OPEN LONG (Buy BTC) 🔹 Target: $100,500 📈 | Stop-loss: $96,500 🔹 Confidence Level: 85% ✅ Why is BTC Looking Bullish? ✅ Market Sentiment: Strong financial & order book indicators suggest bullish momentum. ✅ Technical Signals: RSI & MACD show upward momentum, signaling a potential breakout. ✅ Derivatives Data: Funding Rate: Positive ➝ Traders paying a premium to long BTC. Open Interest: 76,854 BTC ➝ High participation in futures, supporting bullish activity. ✅ Order Book Imbalance: Increased buy pressure from large market orders. Key Scenarios 📊 Bullish Case (Higher Probability) If BTC holds above GETTEX:98K , strong momentum could push it to $100,500 🚀. Breaking $100K could trigger FOMO buying and push prices even higher. 📉 Bearish Case (Lower Probability) If BTC fails to hold GETTEX:97K , it could retest $96,500 support before another move up. A break below $96,500 would invalidate the bullish thesis. Trading Strategy 🔹 Entry: Look for pullbacks near GETTEX:98K for better positioning. 🔹 Stop-loss: Tight risk management at $96,500. 🔹 Target: First take profit at $100,500, reassess for further upside. 💭 Will BTC finally break $100K, or will it pull back first? Drop your thoughts! 👇
Long
by titankarma
#SWELLUSDT longsignal📉 LONG BYBIT:SWELLUSDT.P from $0.01928 🛡 Stop Loss: $0.01890 ⏱ 1H Timeframe ✅ Overview: ➡️ BYBIT:SWELLUSDT.P is showing a strong upward movement after breaking out of consolidation. The price has broken key resistance levels and is now forming a retest zone, confirming bullish strength. ➡️ POC (Point of Control) is located at $0.01175, far below the current price, indicating a shift to a new accumulation phase. ➡️ Trading volumes have increased significantly, which could further strengthen the upward impulse. ⚡ Plan: ➡️ Enter LONG at $0.01928 after confirming the breakout level. ➡️ Stop-Loss set at $0.01890 to protect against false breakouts. ➡️ Primary targets – $0.01967, $0.02013, and $0.02065, where partial profit-taking is possible. 🎯 TP Targets: 💎 TP1: $0.01967 🔥 TP2: $0.02013 ⚡ TP3: $0.02065 🚀 Expectation: If the current trend holds, BYBIT:SWELLUSDT.P may continue its upward movement towards $0.02065 and beyond.
Long
by MoriartyTrading
Bitcoin Intraday Thesis – February 10, 2025Market Context & Decision Current BTC price: $97,336 Position: HOLD BUY (Entry: $95,414) Target: $98,500 📈 | Stop-loss: $94,800 Key Insights 🔹 Bullish Sentiment – Financial data and historical trends suggest strong upward momentum. 🔹 Technical Indicators – Mixed signals, with BTC showing short-term overbought conditions, requiring caution. 🔹 Derivatives Data – Funding Rate: -0.02% (Slight negative bias, but not strongly bearish). Open Interest: 75,758 BTC (Healthy market activity). Price Expectations & Strategy 📊 Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout (80% Confidence) BTC pushes towards $98,500 if bullish sentiment continues. Strong historical & financial backing supports the upward move. 📊 Scenario 2: Short-Term Correction If BTC fails to break GETTEX:98K , overbought conditions may trigger a pullback. Support at $96K-$95K remains key for continued bullish structure. Conclusion HOLD BUY remains the optimal strategy. BTC likely to test $98,500, but traders should monitor support levels in case of volatility. Keep an eye on funding rates & open interest for further confirmation. 🚀 Will Bitcoin reach $98,500 or face a pullback? Let’s discuss! 👇
by titankarma
Ethereum its going down soon Ethereum (ETH/USD) on a daily timeframe, illustrating a descending channel from November 2024. The price is currently around 2,634, within a key support zone. Several Fibonacci levels are highlighted, suggesting potential areas of interest, with the2,149.90 level being a critical support. The chart also includes an order block (OB) at higher levels around $3,400, which may act as resistance if the price retraces. A possible retest is expected before a move toward lower support levels.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by MR_ALBERT4
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for the deeper pull back from the open and then hunt the long trades into the levels we published as our bias and red box targets. We managed to get the short early part of the week into the level we wanted 2730-35 giving us the long trade and a phenomenal pip capture. We then published the FOMC KOG REPORT and stated a similar scenario, only this time expecting price to give us an undercut low before then resuming the move into all time highs. Price didn’t capture the liquidity from below enabling traders to keep positions from below and then carry trades up completing every target level down and up for the week! A fantastic week in Camelot and for those who followed, not only on Gold but all the other pairs we trade and analyse, completing 28 targets during and high volatility and demanding week. Well done to the team! So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We’re looking for two potential moves this week to start with. Ideally, we want to see the market open, test that high around the 2810-7 region and see a rejection there. If we can get that RIP there we feel the move downside can commence firstly into the 2775 region and below that 2755-60. That’s the level for us to watch for a potential long trade back up but we’ll treat it level to level unless the 2890-95 region is broken. Our target level of 2828 is still active, however, we would again like to see a deeper pull back before attempting that long trade as we’re too high and It’s too dangerous up here. On the flip, if we break above that 2810 level and can hold above it, we’ll be looking to complete our target level and based on a clean set up, a potential swing short for the bigger capture may come from up there. Crucial level here is 2790 which has been circled on the chart, it’s likely they will use this level as a key level for this week. KOG’s Bias for the week: Bearish below 2810 with targets below 2795, 2775 and below that 2755. Bullish on break of 2810 with targets above 2820, 2824, 2828 and above that 2835 RED BOXES: Break of 2810 for 2815, 2818, 2828, 2830 and 2834 in extension of the move Break of 2790 for 2785, 2877, 2765 and 2755 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
WTI - Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast: While the price is above the support 64.000, resumption of uptrend is expected. We make sure when the resistance at 80.100 breaks. If the support at 64.000 is broken, the short-term forecast -resumption of uptrend- will be invalid. Technical analysis: A trough is formed in daily chart at 66.510 on 11/18/2024, so more gains to resistance(s) 75.446, 77.920 and maximum to Major Resistance (80.100) is expected. Take Profits: 75.446 77.920 80.100 83.961 87.000 93.882 100.802 109.192 126.350 __________________________________________________________________ ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView, . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 BOOST button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! 🙏 Your Support is appreciated! Let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Have a successful week, ForecastCity Support Team
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by ForecastCity
20
NASDAQ 100 (NAS100USD): Assessing the Potential BreakoutOver the past few months, the NASDAQ 100 (NAS100USD) has demonstrated a clear upward trajectory, marked by higher highs and higher lows—a classic sign of sustained bullish sentiment. However, we've seen periods of consolidation and recent volatility - let's take a look at its current technical landscape. Current Market Overview: As of January 29, 2025, the NASDAQ 100 is trading at approximately 21,600, a level that has served as a significant pivot point in recent trading sessions. A decisive move above this threshold could validate the ongoing uptrend and open the door to further gains. Key Levels to Monitor: Immediate Resistance : The 21,600 level is crucial. A sustained break above this point could signal the continuation of the bullish trend. Support Levels : Should the price retreat, the 21,300 - 21,200 are notable support areas to watch. Recent Developments: The market has recently experienced heightened volatility, notably a sharp dip around January 27, followed by an aggressive recovery. This shows how unpredictable the market can be and hints at continued bullish movement. Strategic Considerations: Breakout Confirmation : A sustained move above 21,600, ideally accompanied by increased trading volume, would provide stronger confirmation of the breakout. Support Retest : If the price successfully breaches the 21,600 resistance, this level could transform into a support zone. A subsequent retest of this level as support could present a compelling entry opportunity for long positions. However , considering the Fed decision and fundamental factors around todays announcement - the most likely scenario would be slightly hawkish or a hawkish pause , which would be somewhat negative for the index. This would allow price to experience a temporary drop back down to the previous support (demand) level of 21,200 before buyers re-engage. Trading Strategies: Long Positions on Breakout Confirmation : A clear break and close above 21,600 could signal a long (buy) entry. Long Positions on Retest of Support : A pullback to the 21,200 support level (assuming it holds) could offer a better opportunity to enter long positions. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and it's essential to conduct your own thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always use appropriate risk management techniques and trade responsibly. OANDA:NAS100USD IG:NASDAQ PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Apexfx_Alpha
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking price to attempt the 2715 price point and if rejected we would be looking for the short into the lower red box but sticking with the bullish bias levels. We got the move exactly into the red box support we wanted initially giving us the move upside completing not only KOGs bullish above targets but also the red box targets and the Excalibur targets. We update traders through the week with the plan and continued to remain with the long of the lows up to where we ended the week. A phenomenal week in Camelot on gold hitting 7 targets and the team completing about 12 targets on the other pairs we trade and analyse. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? It’s going to be a frustrating week of expected ranging and choppy price action for traders due to it being the last week of the month and with FOMC pending. For that reason, we will use this KOG Report for the first half of the week and then update traders with the KOG Report FOMC before the release. For this week we’re not looking to long unless we get a deep pull back either into the order region 2750-55 or further below that the 2730-35 region. It’s actually this levels we will want to test the short trades in to from the higher red box regions. We do have a red box active now at 2827, however, due to where the price is at the moment we’re not comfortable to long up here. If we can open and stay below the 2777 level, we feel an opportunity to short is available into the first region of 2765 which needs to be monitored for the break, and level that the order region of 2750-55. That’s where we will want to test the first long trade, but, as we said above, due to FOMC we can’t expect a clean move. We have the levels above now active at 2827-30 which we feel is where they may want to take this to open up the 2800’s. If we do continue higher, that’s where we will be watching for a RIP IF we get there! KOG’s bias for the week: Bullish above 2750 with targets above 2784, 2793 and above that 2810 pre-event Bearish on break of 2750 with target below 2735 Red boxes: Break above 2780 for 2793, 2795, 2806 and 2827 in extension of the move Break below 2770 for 2765, 2757, 2755, 2750 and 2743 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
46
Behind the Curtain: Economic Forces Fueling Crude Oil Futures1. Introduction Crude Oil Futures (CL), traded on the CME, are a cornerstone of global energy markets. Representing a vital benchmark for the energy sector, these futures reflect shifts in supply, demand, and macroeconomic sentiment. As both a speculative and hedging instrument, CL Futures are closely tied to economic forces shaping the global economy. In this article, we leverage machine learning insights from a Random Forest Regressor to uncover the top economic indicators influencing Crude Oil Futures across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. By identifying these drivers, traders can gain a data-driven perspective to navigate the dynamic crude oil market effectively. 2. Understanding Crude Oil Futures o Contract Specifications: Standard Contract: Represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $10 per tick per contract. Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours, ensuring global access and liquidity. o Micro Crude Oil Contracts (MCL): Contract Size: Represents 100 barrels of crude oil, 1/10th the size of the standard CL contract. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.01 per barrel, equating to $1 per tick per contract. Purpose: Offers smaller-scale traders’ access to the crude oil market with lower capital requirements, making it ideal for those looking to hedge or test strategies. o Margins: Standard CL Contract Margin: Approximately $6,000 per contract (subject to market volatility). Micro MCL Contract Margin: Approximately $600 per contract. The combination of high liquidity, leverage, and the flexibility offered by Micro Crude Oil contracts makes CL Futures a versatile choice for a broad range of participants, from institutional investors to retail traders exploring smaller-scale strategies. 3. Daily Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Machine learning insights reveal that the following daily indicators play a crucial role in shaping Crude Oil Futures' movements: U.S. Trade Balance: Measures the difference between exports and imports. A narrowing trade deficit signals improved economic health and potential upward pressure on oil demand, while a widening deficit may indicate weakened economic sentiment, weighing on crude prices. Unemployment Rate: Reflects labor market conditions and overall economic health. A declining unemployment rate often correlates with increased energy consumption due to stronger economic activity, boosting crude oil prices. Building Permits: Tracks new residential construction permits issued. Rising permits reflect economic confidence and can signal increased energy demand for construction activity, providing upward momentum for crude prices. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Weekly indicators provide medium-term insights into crude oil market dynamics. The top drivers include: Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): Reflects the difference between corporate bond yields and Treasury yields. Widening spreads signal economic uncertainty, potentially reducing crude oil demand. Narrowing spreads suggest stability, supporting higher crude prices. U.S. Trade Balance (again): At the weekly level, trade balance trends highlight the interplay between global trade and crude oil demand, influencing market sentiment over several days. Housing Price Index: Indicates trends in real estate values, reflecting consumer confidence and economic stability. Rising housing prices often signal strong economic conditions, indirectly bolstering crude oil demand. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Monthly indicators provide a long-term perspective on Crude Oil Futures trends, highlighting macroeconomic forces at play. The top monthly drivers are: Natural Gas Prices: As a competing energy source, fluctuations in natural gas prices can impact crude oil demand. Rising natural gas prices often lead to increased crude consumption, while declining prices may pressure oil demand downward. U.S. Trade Balance (again): Over a monthly timeframe, the trade balance reflects sustained shifts in international trade dynamics. Persistent trade deficits may signal weaker global economic activity, affecting crude oil prices negatively, whereas trade surpluses may support demand. Net Exports: A critical measure of a country’s export-import balance, net exports reveal global demand for domestic products, including crude oil. Surpluses suggest robust international demand, often leading to upward pressure on oil prices, while deficits indicate weaker sentiment. 6. Applications for Different Trading Styles Economic indicators provide actionable insights tailored to specific trading styles: Day Traders: Focus on daily indicators such as U.S. Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, and Building Permits to anticipate intraday volatility. For example, an unexpected improvement in building permits might signal stronger economic activity, potentially boosting crude oil prices intraday. Swing Traders: Weekly indicators like Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y) and Housing Price Index offer insights into intermediate trends. For instance, narrowing bond spreads often reflect economic stability, aligning with medium-term bullish positions in Crude Oil Futures. Position Traders: Monthly indicators such as Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports are essential for capturing long-term macroeconomic shifts. Sustained increases in natural gas prices, for example, might support prolonged bullish sentiment in crude oil markets. 7. Risk Management Strategies Risk management is crucial when trading Crude Oil Futures due to the inherent volatility of energy markets. Key strategies include: Hedging Volatility: Utilize correlated assets, such as natural gas or refined product futures, to hedge against price swings. Monitoring Leverage: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements to minimize risk exposure during periods of heightened uncertainty. Timeframe Diversification: Incorporate insights from daily, weekly, and monthly indicators to create a balanced trading approach. For example, while daily indicators may signal short-term volatility, monthly metrics provide stability for longer-term trades. 8. Conclusion Crude Oil Futures are deeply influenced by economic indicators across varying timeframes. From the U.S. Trade Balance and Building Permits driving daily fluctuations to Natural Gas Prices and Net Exports shaping long-term trends, understanding these relationships is critical for navigating the energy market. By leveraging data-driven insights from machine learning models, traders can align their strategies with market dynamics and improve decision-making. Whether you're a day trader, swing trader, or position trader, these economic forces offer a framework for more informed and strategic trading. Stay tuned for the next installment in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we unveil the economic forces shaping another critical futures market. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
EURCHF - Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast: While the price is above the support 0.92029, beginning of uptrend is expected. We make sure when the resistance at 0.95721 breaks. If the support at 0.92029 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of uptrend- will be invalid. Technical analysis: A trough is formed in daily chart at 0.92525 on 12/10/2024, so more gains maximum to Major Resistance (0.95721) is expected. Take Profits: 0.94327 0.95010 0.95721 0.96439 0.97614 0.98368 0.99295 1.00286 1.01177 __________________________________________ ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView, . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 BOOST button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! 🙏 Your Support is appreciated! Let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Have a successful week, ForecastCity Support Team
Long
by ForecastCity
13
Key Points: Intraday BTC Price Movement Context: Options Expiry: $7.8 billion in Bitcoin options expire on January 31, with a significant portion out of the money. Max Pain Price: Key options price level is $98,000. Institutional Influence: Positive developments like rescission of SAB 121 (allowing banks to custody Bitcoin) could boost sentiment. Implied Volatility: High (DVOL ~60), indicating potential for significant price swings. Scenarios: 1. Bullish Scenario Catalyst: Institutional buying or positive announcements. Price Movement: Breakout above $106,850 with potential to test $110,000. Supporting Factors: Strong futures/options participation (open interest). Positive spot netflows (accumulation). Overbought technical indicators (RSI > 70). Confidence Level: Medium (60%). Resistance at $110,000 requires strong momentum. 2. Bearish Scenario Catalyst: Market gravitation toward the max pain level ($98,000). Price Movement: Rejection at $105,000-$106,000, retracing to $100,000-$98,000. Supporting Factors: Historical tendency for prices to move toward max pain before options expiry. Increased selling pressure in spot netflows. Neutral/negative funding rates (bearish leveraged sentiment). Confidence Level: High (75%). Options expiry dynamics favor the max pain theory. 3. Neutral Scenario Catalyst: Absence of significant market-moving news. Price Movement: Consolidation between $104,000-$106,000. Supporting Factors: Lower volatility as expiry approaches. Balanced long/short positioning (neutral funding rates). Confidence Level: Medium-High (70%). Key Indicators to Monitor: Netflow Data: Increased spot inflows → Bearish. Increased spot outflows → Bullish. Funding Rates: Negative → Bearish. Positive → Bullish. Volume & Open Interest: High activity near key levels confirms breakout or breakdown. News Impact: Institutional or macroeconomic announcements can override technicals. Trading Strategies: Bullish Setup: Entry: Above $106,000. Stop-loss: $105,000. Targets: $108,000 and $110,000. Bearish Setup: Entry: Below $104,000. Stop-loss: $105,500. Targets: $100,000 and $98,000. Neutral Setup: Focus on range trading between $104,000-$106,000. This structured thesis accounts for options expiry dynamics, technical factors, and market sentiment.
by titankarma
BTC Intraday Market Analysis (Thesis Prediction)1. Current Market Position: Price: $101,645.39, down -1.9% in the last few hours. Support: $101,000 | Resistance: $103,000. Trend: Short-term bearish; BTC has failed to sustain key support levels but shows signs of possible stabilization on hourly charts. 2. Technical Indicators: RSI: 30.04, oversold territory, suggesting a possible short-term bounce or consolidation. MACD: Bearish signal with MACD line at -46.82 below the signal line at -193.45. The narrowing histogram (-146.63) hints at diminishing bearish momentum. VWMA: Current price below VWMA at $102,847.77, signaling strong bearish sentiment. A move above this could suggest a reversal. 3. On-Chain Insights: Exchange Balances: No significant inflows or outflows (1.81M BTC held on exchanges), indicating stable liquidity. Open Interest: Longs: Down -27.39% to $3.78B. Shorts: Up +47.47% to $6.26B, reinforcing bearish bias. Funding Rates: Low (Binance: 0.0100%), reflecting minimal cost for holding short positions and bearish sentiment. 4. Financial and Sentiment Analysis: Trading Volume: Down -29.68% to $81.58B, signaling reduced activity or market consolidation. Fear & Greed Index: Dropped -10.71% to 75 (closer to neutral), indicating waning speculative enthusiasm. Market News: Reports on declining altcoins and BTC slipping below $102K from Cointelegraph could contribute to bearish sentiment. 5. Scenarios: Bearish Scenario (Confidence: 60%) Conditions: Persistent bearish sentiment, outflows from exchanges, and low funding rates suggest further selling pressure. Outcome: BTC could test $100,000 or lower, driven by technical and sentiment-based momentum. Bullish Scenario (Confidence: 25%) Conditions: Recovery if RSI moves out of oversold territory or positive sentiment emerges from news or trader behavior (e.g., increased long positions). Outcome: BTC might bounce to $102,000 or $103,000, especially if it breaks above the VWMA, signaling a potential trend reversal. Sideways Scenario (Confidence: 15%) Conditions: Mixed market sentiment with consolidation around current levels, lacking strong catalysts. Outcome: BTC likely trades in a narrow range between $101,000–$102,000, awaiting clearer direction. 6. Trading Strategies: Contrarian Play: With RSI in oversold, cautious long entries near $101,000 could target $102,000 or higher, but require tight risk management. Bearish Continuation: Align with the current trend by shorting on failed recoveries, targeting $100,000 with stop-losses above $103,000. 7. Conclusion: BTC’s short-term outlook remains bearish, but oversold indicators suggest potential for a bounce or consolidation. Traders should monitor VWMA, funding rates, and news updates to gauge momentum shifts. With market volatility elevated, maintaining strict risk controls and staying updated on sentiment is crucial for navigating the current conditions.
by titankarma
HYPE Intraday Highlights (Thesis Prediction) Market Position: Current Price: $25.57, up +9.8% from recent lows. Resistance: $27.00 | Support: $25.00. Trend: Bullish recovery, breaking previous resistance levels, with potential for continuation or consolidation. Key Technical Indicators: RSI: 56.44, neutral with room for further price action. MACD (30-min): Positive crossover, indicating building bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands: Price near the upper band, signaling potential short-term overbought conditions or continued bullish tests. On-Chain Insights: Trading Volume: Up +59.34% to $622.47M, signaling heightened market interest. Funding Rate (Bitget): 0.0288%, slightly bullish, reflecting market optimism. Open Interest: Increased by +10.23% to $581.85M, suggesting accumulation by large traders or institutions. Market Sentiment: Sentiment: Strongly positive, fueled by the "HYPE Frenzy" event in December 2024. Long/Short Ratio: 1.0396, indicating more long positions, aligning with bullish sentiment. Scenarios: Bullish (60%): Continuation above $27.00, potentially reaching $28.00+, driven by FOMO and sustained buying pressure. Bearish (30%): Profit-taking or sentiment shift could pull prices back to $25.00 or $24.00 if support fails. Sideways (10%): Consolidation between $25.00–$27.00 if sentiment cools or traders lock in profits. Note: Keep an eye on resistance at $27.00 for a breakout or rejection, and monitor funding rates and volume for signs of momentum shifts. Always apply disciplined risk management.
by titankarma
BTC Price & Market Overview 1. Price & Market Overview BTC Price: Trading between $108,550 and $108,600, up +3.5% in the past 24 hours. Intraday high: ~$109,588, reflecting strong upward momentum from ~$100k earlier this week. Market Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index: 76 (still in "Greed," slightly down by -1.3% from the previous day). Bitcoin Dominance: 57.54% (+0.05%), maintaining a strong position in the crypto market. Macro Context: Gold Futures: +0.29% ($2709.31), indicating slight risk-hedge interest. USD Index (DXY): -0.28% (108.900), a weaker USD favors risk-on assets like BTC. 2. On-Chain & Spot Flows Exchange Balances: ~1.81M BTC on exchanges, down -0.06%, consistent with long-term outflows but no dramatic changes. Spot Flows: Moderate net outflows over the last 8–12 hours suggest potential accumulation off-exchange. Implication: Reduced exchange balances decrease immediate selling pressure, supporting price increases if demand holds steady. 3. Derivatives Overview Open Interest (OI): $153.81B (+2.14%), indicating strong trader interest as prices climb. Futures Volume (24h): $550.56B (+77.71%), a sharp increase, often linked to significant price movements like short squeezes. 24h Liquidations: $1.05B (+83.93%), reflecting a wave of short liquidations above $105k–$107k. Funding Rates: Generally positive (e.g., Binance BTC/USDT ~0.0308%), reflecting a net-long bias. Extremely high funding could signal an overheated market and precede a correction. CME Futures: OI: $20.79B (+3.82%), highlighting institutional trader interest. Watch for weekend-related gaps causing volatility upon reopening. 4. Technical Indicators Price Action: BTC broke above $105k resistance, surging toward ~$109k. Consolidating near $108.5k, with next key resistance at $110k. MACD: Bullish crossover with a positive histogram (~706.79 on 1h), signaling strong upward momentum. RSI: In the 66–68 range, nearing overbought levels but not extreme. Bollinger Bands: Price near the upper band, suggesting a possible short-term pullback or consolidation after rapid gains. 5. Notable Events & Highlights Short Squeeze: Massive liquidations of short positions (10x–25x leverage) above $105k–$107k fueled the rally. CME Futures Risk: Weekend gaps may lead to volatility when traditional markets reopen on Monday. Regulatory News: No immediate developments, but speculation around favorable policies or interventions continues to influence sentiment. 6. Likely Scenarios (Next ~12–24 Hours) Continuation to $110k+ (~40% Probability): Sustained bullish momentum and high volume could drive BTC to test or break $110k. Sideways Consolidation (~35% Probability): BTC consolidates between $106k and $109k, digesting recent gains. Pullback/Correction (~25% Probability): Profit-taking or market cooling pushes BTC toward $105k or $103k. Watch for negative funding or large exchange inflows as warning signs. 7. Overall Confidence Level Market Bias: Moderately Bullish (~60% confidence). Upside Drivers: Positive funding rates, high volume, and continued short liquidations. Risks: Overbought RSI, CME gap risk, potential profit-taking near $110k. Final Note Monitor $110k resistance closely for a breakout or rejection. Pay attention to liquidation clusters, funding rate spikes, and any significant exchange inflows. A decisive move above $110k could trigger another wave of liquidations, while a failure could lead to a pullback. Maintain disciplined risk management practices.
by titankarma
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone, Please see update on the weekly chart idea we have been tracking for over a month now and still playing out, as analysed. Previously we stated that the channel top was continuing to provide support like we stated for the past few weeks. We also stated that, as long as we see no ema5 cross and lock below into the channel, we can safely continue with our plans to buy dips in this range. - This is continuing to play out perfectly. You can see although we had many breaks into the channel with candle over the last few weeks, ema5 failed to break inside, confirming the rejection and providing support above the channel like we stated. This followed with the perfect bounce inline with our plans to buy dips and now heading towards our 2729 AXIS gap target above. This is the beauty of our channels, which we draw in our unique way, using averages rather than price. This enables us to identify fake-outs and breakouts clearly, as minimal noise in the way our channels are drawn. Ema5 is still playing above the channel top and has not broken into the channel providing support above the channel. We will continue to track the movement down and trade the bounces up, inline with our plans to buy dips, using our smaller time-frames, keeping in mind the long range gaps above for the future. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
11