Tradingstrategies
Unlocking the Secrets of the Rising Wedge Pattern 📈🔍
Unlocking the Secrets of the Rising Wedge Pattern 📈🔍
✅The rising wedge pattern is a powerful technical analysis tool that can offer valuable insights into potential future price movements in the financial markets. This pattern is characterized by converging trend lines, with the upper trend line sloping upwards and the lower trend line sloping downwards. Traders and investors often use the rising wedge pattern to anticipate potential reversals or breakouts in the market.
Here we can see a rising wedge before the breakout
✅Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern:
The rising wedge pattern typically forms during an uptrend and is considered a bearish reversal pattern. This pattern suggests that the upward momentum is weakening, and a potential trend reversal may be on the horizon. As price continues to oscillate between the converging trend lines, it creates a narrowing price range, indicating increasing indecision and potential impending volatility.
✅Key Characteristics:
- Converging trend lines
- Upward sloping upper trend line
- Downward sloping lower trend line
- Decreasing trading range
- Bearish reversal potential
Here we can see a rising wedge pattern after the breakout. The pattern evidently played out well.
✅Examples:
1. Stock Market Example:
In the stock market, a rising wedge pattern may develop on the price chart of a company's stock during a prolonged uptrend. As the pattern unfolds, traders and investors monitor the potential breakout or breakdown of the pattern to make informed trading decisions.
2. Forex Market Example:
In the forex market, the rising wedge pattern can be observed on the price chart of a currency pair. Traders analyze this pattern to anticipate potential trend reversals and plan their entry and exit points accordingly.
Here is one more rising wedge breakout example
✅Conclusion:
The rising wedge pattern is a valuable tool for technical analysts and traders seeking to gain an edge in the financial markets. By identifying and understanding the characteristics of this pattern, market participants can better anticipate potential trend reversals and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
By incorporating the rising wedge pattern into their analysis, traders can enhance their ability to make informed decisions and navigate the dynamic landscape of the financial markets. 📊💡
RUNE FIRST ZONE HIT, ABOVE THERE ARE TWO MORE ZONESI will post below where I set the zones earlier, and the first one was hit. The day has not closed yet, so you should be careful. Keeping the price below 6.5$ is a success for this trade
POC from 1. July-13.MAY.
From the other levels we have, it is weekly $7.9, VAH of the same range and full liquidity at 11.6
It is up to you which zone you choose, and how you enter the trade
$EURUSD Bulls are Back once AGAIN? - LONGEURUSD Financial Review: Navigating Current Conditions and Projecting Trends"
Introduction:
The FX:EURUSD currency pair is currently poised for significant developments, with a projected bullish trend following a rapid correction. This analysis incorporates both trend and technical indicators, providing insights into the potential future movements of the pair.
Technical Analysis:
Our technical analysis, conducted on the 2-hour timeframe using the w.aritas.io indicator, reveals a convergence of probability bands, specifically the On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Relative Strength Index (RSI), as well as Money Flow with Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). This convergence signals a stabilized market with reduced asset volatility, indicative of an equilibrium state. Minor fluctuations may trigger a bullish momentum, attracting further MoneyFlow into the asset.
Anticipated Bullish Boost:
We anticipate a bullish boost to commence as the pair approaches the critical zone around 1.08275 . Upon testing this zone, a light retracement is expected, followed by a resurgence of bullish momentum. This trend initially formed on October 16, 2023 , coinciding with positive movements in stocks and Treasury yields. Our projection suggests a continuation of this bullish trend towards our target profit zone, TP #2, around the 1.126 mark.
USD Strength and Economic Resilience:
In contrast to the EUR's projected bullish trend, we maintain the view that the USD is poised for broad strengthening into early 2024. This expectation is grounded in the economic resiliency of the United States and the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, with no imminent easing anticipated until the middle of the following year. These factors collectively position the Greenback favorably for the coming quarters.
JPY Weakness and Intervention Concerns:
Turning attention to the JPY, notable insights from Bloomberg.com highlight the potential for the yen to weaken by more than 10% due to the Bank of Japan's commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. This contrasts with the Federal Reserve's tightening stance aimed at curbing inflation. The yen's potential decline, as suggested by Sakakibara, could reach levels near 160, prompting concerns of intervention by the Bank of Japan to mitigate its slide.
Additional Context:
For further context on the FX:USDJPY situation, readers are encouraged to explore the comprehensive analysis available at www.fxstreet.com This source provides valuable insights into the dynamics shaping the FX:USDJPY currency pair, offering a more detailed understanding of the factors influencing its movements.
Conclusion:
In summary, the FX:EURUSD pair is poised for a bullish trajectory , with technical indicators signaling a stabilized market. Concurrently, the USD is expected to strengthen, while the JPY faces potential weakness and intervention challenges. Traders and investors should remain vigilant, considering the nuanced interplay of global economic factors influencing currency markets.
GBPUSD: The dollar's grip on FX will weaken in 2024, poll showsThe US dollar's influence on the foreign exchange market is likely to weaken in 2024, especially in the second half of the year, according to a study by Currency Strategists. The survey, which included the views of 71 analysts, found that expected U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next year could lead to a weaker dollar against G-10 currencies. other.
The dollar, which has been a mainstay in foreign exchange markets since mid-2021, showed signs of weakness last week following dovish comments from some US Federal Reserve officials. This change in tone caused the dollar index to fall 3.0% in November, its biggest monthly decline in a year. The strength of the US economy is the main reason for the dollar's strength, with last quarter's annualized growth of 5.2%, the highest level since the final quarter of 2021. But analysts expect the dollar's weakening trend to continue next year, with most of the decline occurring by the end of 2024.
Lee Hardman, senior currency strategist at MUFG, commented on the outlook: Challenges in global economic growth outside the United States are reasons to be cautious in predicting an immediate decline in the dollar.
The dollar is expected to maintain some resilience in the first half of 2024, but strategists cannot agree on the factors that will determine its performance. Among the analysts, 20 cited interest rate differentials as potential factors, 17 cited economic indicators, seven cited demand for safe assets, and three cited other reasons.
New Traders Ask, Experienced Traders Answer: Q&AHello TradingView Community!
🔸We're excited to launch a unique Q&A session right here! If you're new to trading and have questions, this is your chance to get them answered by seasoned or just other traders. Whether it's about technical analysis, trading psychology, or managing risks, feel free to ask anything related to trading.
🔸Experienced traders, we invite you to share your wisdom and insights. Your knowledge is invaluable, and this is a great way to give back to the community.
Guidelines:👇
- Please keep questions and answers respectful and constructive.
How It Works:👇
- New traders: Post your questions in the comments.
- Experienced traders: Reply to these comments with your answers.
- Let's make this a rich learning experience for everyone involved. We're looking forward to your questions and the insightful discussions they spark!
P.S.: All the information shared here will be based on personal knowledge and the personal experience of traders! This is just an opinion, not financial advice!
Happy Trading!
Navigating Moving Averages: Decoding Simple vs. Exponential 📊📈
Moving averages (MA) serve as foundational tools in technical analysis, offering insights into market trends and potential entry/exit points. This article delves into the comparison between two primary types: Simple Moving Averages (SMA) and Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), providing traders with a comprehensive understanding of their differences, applications, and advantages.
Differentiating Simple and Exponential Moving Averages
1. Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
- Calculate by averaging closing prices over a specified period, providing a smooth representation of price trends.
2. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
- Prioritize recent prices, assigning more weight to the latest data points, leading to quicker responses to price changes.
Understanding the differences and applications of Simple and Exponential Moving Averages empowers traders with versatile tools for analyzing trends and making informed trading decisions in various market conditions. 📊📈
Do you like this post? Do you want more articles like that?
USOIL HOW TO TRADE VOLUME AND CANDLESTICKOn the first marked candlestick you can see how the volume was high and the price closed (red) immediately followed by a return big candle with strong volume (the bulls defended). Then they try again and fail.
Here's the reason why i hunted low wick today after the news. I expect this time we break the 200 DMA and test $83
GOLD ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN UPDATEHey Everyone,
Once again we smashed another target taking the Bull all the way up into our 2047 target with only 2066 remaining. Buying from dips allowed us to manage any swings safely. Although the weighted level break has opened 2066, the target will be solidified with a ema5 lock confirmation above 2047.
Once again we had plenty of time to get in for this movement, as the weighted level lock confirmed the breakout in advance.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and the catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we share every week for the past 18 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGETS
2010 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2010 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
2018 - DONE
2032 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2032 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
2047 - DONE
2066
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 1978 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
1952
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
THE KOG REPORTKOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would face a difficult week on the markets and will be looking for higher pricing on Gold, and if price did start with a decline, we would be looking for the levels 1970-65 for a strong support before attempting the long trade into the target regions we had above. We gave KOG’s bias level as 1965 bullish above and a target price of 2003 on our morning review and update. Looking at the move that occurred, it couldn’t have been anymore precise with the low being put in at 1965 and the target regions above completing. Another successful week on the markets with not only on Gold, but the numerous other pairs we analyse and trade.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
It’s the end of the month, so expect there to be some profit taking across the markets which will cause a lot of volatility. It’s a good idea for most traders, but especially new traders to sit out of the markets during these periods, rather spending their time on education, practicing, and improving their techniques and strategies. Gold, we can see higher pricing, however, again, how high are they going to take it?
We’re looking for two moves this week, either the long from the immediate support level or KOG’s bias level which we’ll issue, or a short if price continues to the upside from the open. We’re a too high to get a decent entry from this level, so Monday could be played sitting on the sidelines waiting for price to make a move into the levels we want before attempting a trade. Of course, we’ll also be waiting for our trusted Excalibur to guide us.
Levels of interest on the downside are the 1990-85 levels, where, if support holds, we feel an opportunity to long the market into the higher resistance levels could arise. We’ll be monitoring the 2010-15 resistance closely, if achieved, this is where we feel a reaction in price may take place, potentially giving bears an opportunity to short the market back down into the support levels below. A break of that level will continue the move into the previous order region 2030-35 so it could be an idea to hold a runner for higher pricing. A weekly and monthly close above that 2020 level is important for bulls and it’s likely there will be a fight for the close, so please trade this wisely, if you’re going to trade it.
On the flip, if price does continue to the upside from the open, we’ll again be looking at 2010-15 for a reaction in price, otherwise, we’ll trade this level to level long on the intra-day using our red box strategy until we feel there is an opportunity to short it back down.
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bullish above 1985 with targets above 2010 and above that 2015
Bearish on break of 1985 with targets below 1975 and below that 1965
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
GBPUSDPair : GBPUSD ( British Pound / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Completed " 123 " Impulsive Waves at Strong Resistance Level or Daily Demand Zone. If Breaks then it will Reject from the Fibonacci Retracement Level - 61.80%. Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Entry Precaution :
Wait for the Proper Rejection
Apple starting to look toppish....time for a pull back?Just got a "Sell Alert" from my customer SSG Indicator on Apple. Last 2 times this happened we saw the price quickly pull back into the direction of the 100 days EMA.
Looking actually to trade this by short-selling Calls with with a strike of 200 that expire in 1 month. However, due to Thanksgiving I expect that the volatility is not going to be very high on a friday, thus I will see later if I can get a decent premium for the risk.
Deep dive into SmartBot strategy [Skyrex]Overview
The system is designed to continuously monitor assets price movements, identifying formation of bases, and providing alert notifications when these bases and/or layers are either breached or adhered to. System settings are adjusted by machine learning model applied to historical price action data.
Release Notes
These major features and enhancements were introduced since the first launch of the system in
November 2021
Enhanced script efficiency for faster compilation and integration;
Introduced a "Layer Settings" section for customized layer configurations;
Added options for setting a take profit percentage;
Exchange commissions implemented into statistic calculations;
Implemented a new "Take Profit" plot series, including a data point in the data window, to
facilitate trade closure at the current base line;
Added a plot series to display emerging bases during active trades on the current base line;
Introduced an option to make custom early trade exits including after reaching breakeven;
Implemented a setting for enhanced trade exit strategies;
Adjusted the minimum layer value for Layer 1 to exchanges’ “minNotional” filter;
Modified the start month condition to a calendar month basis for improved initial rendering of base lines;
Consolidated all "Layer # Cracked" and "Layer # Respected" X-crosses into a unified "Layer # Cross" set to streamline the Data Window list;
Eliminated base/layer line shifts to the Base Marker to simplify chart rendering calculations;
Added option to set custom exit conditions at each Layer;
System is rebuilt from PineScript programming language to Python using libraries: TA-lib,
python-binance, CCXT, scikit-learn;
Implementation of Machine Learning based on scikit-learn;
Added Bayesian classifier and obtain the corrected indicator’s values;
Implemented labeled Elliott wave data once a month for additional model training;
Enhanced Signal Issuance Module based on Python 3.10, making decisions based on model
predictions, and sending trading signals according to the second-level trading strategy algorithm, implemented using the TA-lib library, in the form of a JSON file to the panel via Webhook;
Enhanced integration of Fractal DCA system with Machine Learning extension to ensure
seamless and adjusted to market conditions signals production for SmartBot public beta test
launch;
System structure
Identification of Bases
The system is engineered to detect pivot lows within a fractal configuration, subsequently verifying their eligibility as bases in alignment with the principles of fractal strategy trading1. The validation process for a pivot low encompasses several checks:
Confirmation that the rate of change in price during declines and rebounds surpasses a
specified threshold;
Verification that the volume at the pivot low exceeds the moving average of volume,
determined by a predefined length;
Assurance that the volume magnitude significantly exceeds the moving average of volume;
Assessment to ensure that the newly identified base is sufficiently distanced from the
previous range, employing a specific percentage difference threshold in price.
Understanding Fractal Patterns
A fractal pattern represents a repetitive configuration observable on price charts, which is
instrumental in forecasting reversals amidst broader, more erratic price movements. These
fundamental fractals typically consist of five or more bars. The criteria for fractal identification are as follows:
A bearish turning point is identified by a pattern where the central bar has the highest high, flanked by two lower highs on each side.
A bullish turning point is marked by a pattern where the central bar has the lowest low,
surrounded by two higher lows on each side.
The fractals depicted in figure below exemplify ideal patterns. It is important to note that while numerous
variations of less perfect patterns may occur, the essential structure of the fractal must be
preserved for its validity.
A notable limitation of fractals as a system is their inherent nature as lagging indicators. Specifically, a fractal cannot be established until a minimum of three bars have completed on the price chart. In the context of the Fractal trading strategy, it is the bullish fractal pattern that is utilized for base identification.
The system is equipped with a feature that permits customization of the number of bars that
constitute the bullish fractal. The default configuration is set to a 6-bar fractal pattern. This pattern is instrumental in validating price declines and subsequent rebounds. In the latest update, the algorithm has been modified to accommodate a more flexible approach in analyzing the lows of each bar during these declines and rebounds. Instead of requiring a strictly ascending sequence, the revised algorithm focuses on confirming that the pivot point is indeed the lowest, and that the observed declines and rebounds surpass the pre-established ranges.
Validation of Cracks and Bounces
The process of validating cracks and bounces begins with the identification of a bullish fractal
pattern, as per the system's fractal pattern settings. Upon recognizing such a pattern, the system
counts the bars to the left and right of the lowest pivot point and then calculates the Price Rate of
Change (ROC).
The Price Rate of Change is a momentum indicator that quantifies the percentage difference in
price between the current price and the price from a specified number of periods ago. The ROC is determined using the following formula:
ROC = (Most recent closing price - Closing price n periods ago) / Closing price n periods ago x 100
As demonstrated in figure below, the system employs a 3-3 fractal pattern to calculate the ROC. In this example, the ROC for the Price Drop was computed to be 33.97%, and the ROC for the Price Bounce was 35.93%. These two values are then compared against the predefined “Minimum Price Drop (%)” and “Minimum Price Bounce (%)” settings.
Should the ROC values for both Price Drop and Bounce surpass the established thresholds, the
base is deemed valid and qualifies for additional validation. Settings either of these parameters to zero (0) implies that the system will bypass this validation step and accept any bullish fractal pattern as valid
Volume Validation Methodology
In accordance with the principles of Fractal trading, volume plays a crucial role in validating a base. It is primarily used to corroborate the market's robust response in preventing a further decline in price. This is typically evidenced by a "spike" in volume on the price chart, signaling a strong market reaction to the current price level.
Moreover, the Fractal trading system acknowledges that volume analysis is particularly pertinent at lower timeframes, where block trades occur. These block trades may not be as discernible in higher timeframes (e.g., on a 1-hour chart). Consequently, while the system incorporates Volume Analysis to gauge the market's reaction at a potential base, this feature is not activated by default, given its optional nature.
Volume analysis involves scrutinizing the quantity of shares or contracts traded within a specific
timeframe. This analysis is a key tool for technical analysts, who integrate it with other indicators to inform their trading strategies. By examining volume trends alongside price movements, investors can ascertain the significance of price changes in a security.
The system executes volume analysis through two distinct methods:
Comparison of the volume at the low pivot point against the volume moving average, based on the following criterion:
( > ) = True
Application of a multiplication factor to the volume, ensuring it surpasses the volume moving average by a specified margin:
( > ) = True
In the following example, volume is greater than volume moving average:
Ensuring adequate spacing between bases
The system possesses the capability to be configured in such a manner that it spaces out the
formation of new bases at a predetermined distance from the existing base. This feature is
instrumental in preventing the occurrence of multiple bases being identified near one another. The left chart has 3 base lines that are very close together.
No percent of change for new bases
5% percent of change for new bases
Base Line Placement
The system supports configurable settings for determining the positioning of the base line. This line can be set at the low point of the bar, or alternatively, at the lower value between the opening and closing prices. A comparative analysis of these two distinct options is presented, utilizing the same fractal pattern for evaluation
Base Placed on Low
Base Place on Open
A critical consideration in this context is that if the bar defining the pivot low (termed as the Base Reference Bar) exhibits a lower value than either of the two placements, then the placement will default to utilizing the low of the Base Reference Bar.
Base Placement on Low of Reference Bar
Understanding Layering Functionality
Elucidation of Layers and Their Respective Unit Types
The system is designed to accommodate a maximum of nine (9) distinct layers, each equipped with its own set of crack and respect alerts. Layers can be set dynamically through API requests or preconfigured at a position start; unit value can be configured in two ways:
as a percentage of the price,
as a fixed quantity (such as BTC, USD, etc.). Assigning a value of zero (0) to a layer
effectively deactivates it.
A “respected” layer definition
In the system's framework, a layer is classified as “cracked” when the market price descends
beneath the specified layer price threshold. An alert is activated whenever this occurs. However, the criteria for a layer being acknowledged as “respected” can be determined through one of two selectable options. A layer is recognized as respected based on the following price action scenarios:
1. "Respected Base" - means that the system will consider all layers that are cracked below the
base as respected when the price action returns to the base after a base crack. For example,
consider this chart below:
As illustrated, the initial base along with layers 1 and 2 are breached. However, when the price
subsequently ascends, the entire configuration is deemed adhered to upon the base being
respected. Consequently, in this scenario, a total of four alerts are activated:
Base breached;
Layer 1 breached;
Layer 2 breached;
Base respected.
Moreover, it is noteworthy that no alert is generated upon the second breach of Layer 2. Therefore, under these settings, a layer is only recognized as breached once while the base breach is in effect. Once the base is respected, the system resets the states of the layers. Hence, if these layers are breached again post-reset, new alerts will be issued accordingly.
2. "Cracks Next Layer First" - means that the system will consider all layers that are cracked below the base as respected when the price action returns to the layer after the layer below it is cracked. For example, consider the chart.
Again, the cracked state is restored when the price is returned to the base. While the last
layer will never be considered respected since there is no “Next Layer” to be cracked.
Duration of layered trading activity
The duration of layered trading within the system is adjustable, allowing to define the maximum permissible number of cracks per base. Upon reaching this threshold, the system ceases to issue alerts for further price movements across the layers. Instead, it shifts its focus to identifying new bases as they emerge. A base is deemed to be cracked upon the breach of the first layer.
The system offers a configurable option to set a maximum limit on the number of bars for which a layered trade can be active. Upon the breach of the 1st layer, the system initiates a count of the duration, in terms of bars, for which the trade remains active. Should this duration surpass thepredefined maximum threshold, the system will then classify the base as disregarded and start recognizing new base candidates as they emerge. This feature is particularly beneficial in preventing the system from persisting indefinitely on the same base. By default, this setting is assigned a value of 0 bars, indicating that it is initially inactive.
The system additionally offers a feature to manage the initiation point for base detection. This
functionality is crucial in ensuring that the detection process does not commence amidst an
ongoing, long-duration cracked base. Such a scenario could potentially hinder the identification
and charting of new bases, thereby impacting the effectiveness of the trading strategy. The
system also provides the ability to control the starting point of the base detection so that you can ensure that you are not starting in the middle of a cracked base that is long running in duration, thus preventing new bases from being detected and place on the chart.
Risk management settings
The system is designed to incorporate a "Take Profit" feature, which enables to exit a trade
following a base crack, thereby mitigating the risk of the base not being respected. Alongside the Take Profit functionality, the system also allows for the configuration of Break Even and Stop Loss parameters. These can be activated at predetermined layers, offering users the flexibility to tailor the timing of their application.
Furthermore, the system facilitates the input of specific exchange buy and sell commission rates. This inclusion is critical for refining the Take Profit calculations, ensuring they are as accurate as possible to realize the intended profit margins.
These configurations play a pivotal role in recalculating the Take Profit price line with each layer crack. It's important to note that the efficacy of this setting is contingent on the "Layer Is Respected When Price" being configured to "Respects Base." In scenarios where this is not the case, the Take Profit price line will experience an upward adjustment whenever layers are respected. Therefore, the optimal utility of this setting is realized when it is paired with the "Respects Base" configuration.
The calculation of the Take Profit line value will inherently treat the Stop Loss Percentage as a
negative figure. Consequently, there is no requirement to specify a negative number for this setting.
Accompanying this text are screenshots that demonstrate diverse instances of these settings being applied within a chart context
Take Profit with Layer Activation Settings Disabled
Take Profit Activated at Layer 3
Break Even Activated at Layer 3
Stop Loss Activated at Last Layer
CRUDE OIL ALL PERSPECTIVE OF CHART Currently, all the movements I look at and position myself differently. It is important to show yourself all the possibilities and get rid of your emotions
if I see that the ABC correction is (LONG), it can easily lead to scam wick, which is also not excluded(SETUP-LONG) + Head and Shoulders Pattern(SETUP-LONG). Also, this could be an even bigger drop(Biggest leg down), which is my last option due to the economic situation
Acceptance below 200 and 50 Weekly Moving Average(SETUP-SHORT)
THE KOG REPORTKOG REPORT:
In last weeks KOG Report we suggested that if price began with a decline and stayed above the 1920-23 price region, we felt an opportunity to long would be available, based on strong support. We gave the levels above as 1950-55 and above that 1965 and 1970 as the target levels to aim for and then added the daily bias levels. We gave the weekly bias level high at 1995 which was short by a few pips and managed to complete all the daily bias levels given to traders.
Well done to those who followed and managed to get something out of the markets, not only on Gold, but the numerous other pairs we trade and share.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
Again, this is going to be a difficult week for traders to navigate and stay ahead of, so please make sure you have a risk model in place as one big move in the opposite direction can really cause traders problems. We can see there being potential for higher pricing, but what we want to see again this week is how low to they attempt to take it while staying above the order region. We have the levels below as key support regions 1970-65 and below that 1950-55, which price needs to stay above in order to target and potentially break above the 2000 barrier.
So, for that reason, we will be looking for a similar scenario to last week. If we see price attempt the lower support regions 1970-65 and below that 1950-55, we feel an opportunity to long the market up into the 1995 and above that 2003 levels could be available to traders. It’s at these price points that we want to monitor price action and look for signs of a RIP. If we struggle around the 2006-10 region with extension into 2015-17, we will be looking to short the market back down with an open take profit.
On the flip, continuing upside from the get-go, we will be looking to trade level to level into the regions we’ve mentioned above, before then looking for the short trade back down initially into the 1965-70 region and then hopefully further down.
KOGs bias for the week:
Bullish above 1965 with targets above 1995 and above that 2003
Bearish on the break of 1965 with targets below 1955 and below that 1943
This gives us a potential range 1935-2010 for the week ahead.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAUUSD: BofA: Fed funds rate forecast to be higher for longerWe have decided to adjust our forecast for the end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve so that the 10-year yield is 4.25% by the end of 2024.
Our forecasts are below market expectations, but in particular he is ahead of public forecasts through the end of 2024.
Our two-year forecast reflects a smaller decline in interest rates than consensus forecasts due to market expectations for higher nominal neutral rates and the risk of increased economic resilience.
Strong growth will lead to higher interest rates, which will be higher than expected
An increase in the supply of U.S. Treasuries could cause U.S. long-term interest rates to rise and the yield curve to become steeper than expected.
A deepening US recession and further crisis in the banking sector could raise the possibility of rate cuts.
XAGUSD (SILVER) ____ INCOMING BULLISH MOVEHello Traders,
I trust you are doing great and getting reading for the new trading week.
Here is my view on Silver.
To begin with, I will draw your attention to the monthly chart. Based on where I plotted my monthly OB, go and look at your monthly chart. Price mitigated the manipulation. Hence the rally. If you measure that bullish candle that price mitigated on the monthly chart, note where it ends.
Now come back to the daily chart and look at the kind of structure we have. It is an inverse heads and shoulders pattern. My speculation is that price will continue to rally to the weekly supply orderblock.
You will also notice that whilst other USD pairs made massive moves last trading week, Silver didn't. Which means that we might get an explosion this week.
There is just one suspicious thing... price formed a trendline liquidity, but I am still interested in taking the long as there are more confluences for a long than short.
What do you think?
Follow for more updates like this.
Cheers,
Jabari
GBPUSDHello, everyone. The context for continuing the long position is evident. I have no desire to reverse the chart, but I am also aware of the importance of correction after such an impulsive movement. My plan is to start working in short positions only after breaking the market structure on the hourly timeframe. Until then, I operate in conjunction with the daily timeframe and the hourly timeframe. The PDH target is to accumulate a position, ready from the Asian minimum.
AUDUSD ____ INCOMING BULLISH MOVEHello Guys,
I do hope the trading week has been fair to you.
Now the breakdown of this pair.
Let's start from the weekly, we have a bullish CHOCH on the weekly timeframe. Dropping to the daily timeframe, you will notice that we have buy-side liquidity (relatively equal highs) to hunt and the actual demand orderblock is below a swing low. (see annotations)
You will notice that I marked my daily demand orderblock on the wick of the candle. That is because the wick embodies the manipulation that ran the sell-side liquidity (relatively equal lows).
Follow for more updates.
Cheers,
Jabari