THE KOG REPORTKOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would like to see how the market opened and how the lower support regions 1975 and below that 1968 would hold up price. Based on these levels holding we suggested opportunities to long the market to firstly attempt the break of the 2000 level and then the target region of 2015. We gave the order region 1950-55, price bullish above, and KOG’s bias of the week level 1970 bullish above with target levels 1999 and 2015 for the week.
As you can see, price did hold above with a slight dip lower than 1968 but we stuck with KOG’s daily bias which was shared daily with traders and completed not only the 1999 level, but also numerous level to level gold targets on the way up with 2015 still open! A great week for us on the markets, not just on Gold but the numerous other pairs we trade and share netting a phenomenal pip capture for our traders.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
To start with, with can expect more aggressive price action across the markets so please trade carefully, or, don’t trade at all. Money is also made while sitting and cash in your account is a position in the market. New traders should ideally be watching and practicing, using this time to further educate themselves and develop their strategies. These markets are only after one thing, your money! If you get this wrong, it can go horribly wrong, so levels, entries, exits and your risk model are really important.
The chart shows the levels for the week we have highlighted with the key reaction zones we’ll be looking at. We’re still open for last week’s target level at 2015 but a pull back would be ideal. For that reason, if we start with bullish momentum into that resistance level and hold, based on a clean set up, we feel an opportunity to short the market is on the cards, initially into the immediate support 1995-90 and then below that 1975. Our bias remains as bullish above, however, there is a chance there may be some profit taking this week, so expect the unexpected, if that level breaks, we’ll be looking lower into the 1950-55 region to then attempt the long trade.
On the flip, if we start the session and week with a move to the downside, we will be looking for immediate resistance levels to hold and take this down into that 1975 region level to level on the short side looking for support levels to hold in order to take this back up into that 2015 level and above that 2022.
We’ll use our daily bias and targets as well as the red box strategy together with our trusted Excalibur to guide us. What we don’t want to do here at this point of the market is buy upside when there is potential for this to correct some of this move. So levels are key here!
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Tradingstrategies
Trading strategyA trading strategy encompasses a set of guidelines for initiating a position.
A trading system encompasses a set of rules for consistently profitable trading. This involves a clear comprehension of your strategy, specifying the assets you trade, the setups you utilize, the risk involved, preferred timeframes, and other pertinent details.
Consistency: A meticulously crafted action plan serves as a tool to maintain a steady trading strategy while minimizing the sway of emotions on your decision-making. Such consistency often yields more predictable results and enhances overall performance over time.
Confidence: Equipped with a playbook, you can trade with increased self-assurance, knowing that you are following a tried-and-tested strategy. This confidence alleviates stress and anxiety, enabling you to maintain focus and make sound decisions.
Adaptability: In the face of shifting market conditions, having a playbook at your disposal empowers you to adjust and fine-tune your strategies as needed. This adaptability is a critical factor in staying ahead and sustaining success in the constantly evolving realm of trading.
4 distinct components that constitute a trading strategy:
Context: Context encompasses the surroundings and circumstances related to a trading idea or event. It is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the situation and is vital for maximizing the potential of your trading strategy. Many traders erroneously believe that a trading strategy is simply about identifying patterns or triggers along with basic risk management. For instance, some may focus on trading Order Blocks. However, the key to making Order Blocks a profitable tool lies in applying the correct context.
Patterns: The second component involves identifying the triggers or patterns that dictate when to enter a position. Context is applied to these triggers for in-depth analysis, aligning them with the risk-to-reward parameters defined in your trading system. Triggers can vary widely and should be chosen according to your individual trading style and strategy.
Position Management: Inexperienced traders often find themselves overwhelmed when they enter a position, leading to irrational decisions. Defining a repeatable process for managing your trades is essential. This process should align with the goals set out in your trading strategy. For instance, if your strategy aims for a risk-to-reward ratio of 3R or higher, your approach will differ from someone targeting a minimum of 1.5R. To ensure consistency, it's crucial to avoid excessive discretion when managing positions, such as attempting to achieve a 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio, placing short stops, or averaging down. Instead, aim for strict consistency, gradually honing your skills.
Risk Management: The final facet of any trading system is risk management. Poor risk management is a leading cause of trader failures. It often results from excessive leverage and a lack of understanding. Your risk management plan doesn't need to be overly complex, but it must be clear and diligently adhered to. By following a robust risk management strategy, you can avoid the pitfalls that ensnare many inexperienced traders who destroy their accounts due to reckless trading practices.
It may vary depending on your trading style, but for day trading I recommend the following:
* 1% maximum risk per trade
* 2% maximum per day
* 6% maximum per week
* 10% maximum per month
6 essential steps to build and refine your trading strategy:
Determine Your Trading Style: Start by defining your trading style, whether you are a day trader, swing trader, or long-term investor. This choice guides your selection of appropriate strategies, time frames, and risk management techniques. For instance, specify your preferred win rate (e.g., 50%+), risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., 2R minimum), and trading style (e.g., scalping, position trading, or swing trading).
Research and Select Strategies: Explore various trading strategies and choose the ones that align with your trading style, risk tolerance, and financial objectives. You may want to consider strategies like Smart Money trading, which could be particularly beneficial.
Define Entry and Exit Criteria: For each selected strategy, outline precise entry and exit criteria. Determine your stop loss and profit targets to ensure you execute trades accurately and limit potential losses. It's crucial to establish a well-defined trade management plan that guides step-by-step position management. For example, decide to move your position to break-even when a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio is reached, open trades exclusively with a 1:2 ratio, or close 50% of your position at 1:1 and the remaining 50% at 1:3.
Establish Risk Management Rules: Implement robust risk management rules to safeguard your capital. These rules might include setting a maximum percentage of your account balance to risk per trade or using Expert Advisors to automatically determine position sizing for risk control.
Test Your Strategies: Prior to committing real capital, test your strategies using historical market data or a demo account. This testing phase allows you to refine your strategy and build confidence in your approach. If you cannot achieve positive results on a demo account, it's advisable to avoid risking real money until you've honed your skills.
Analyze Your Trades: Maintain a comprehensive trade journal recording the strategy used, entry and exit points, and relevant market conditions for each trade. Regularly review your trade results to pinpoint areas for improvement and adapt your trading plan accordingly. Analyzing your trades is crucial for continuous growth as a trader.
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✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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BTC/USD: Overcoming important resistance zone
Bitcoin broke through an important resistance zone at the July peak at 31800, thereby creating a Double Bottom pattern (bottoms in June and September 2023), opening up the potential for a price increase to 39000. Bullish Momentum The strength helped BTC surpass the 200-day MA, coinciding with the August peak (28150). Additionally, on the weekly chart BTC broke above the Ichimoku cloud for the first time since 2021
Bitcoin 4H RSI OVERBOUGHT BEARISH DIVERGENCEBitcoin Price Analysis:
As of the latest available data, Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a local high at $35,280. This level has acted as a significant resistance point in the recent price history. If Bitcoin is unable to break above this resistance, it could potentially signify a short-term top. This is an important level to watch as it may signal a reversal or consolidation in the price movement.
4-Hour RSI Overbought Bearish Divergence:
The 4-hour RSI is a technical indicator that measures the momentum of the price. An RSI value above 70 is often considered overbought, indicating that the asset might be due for a pullback or correction. However, it's important to note that overbought conditions can persist in strong bullish trends.
The bearish divergence occurs when the price makes a higher high, while the RSI makes a lower high. This can be a sign that the current uptrend is losing momentum, and a reversal might be on the horizon.
Given the combination of the price reaching a significant resistance level and the 4-hour RSI showing signs of overbought bearish divergence, traders should exercise caution and consider potential short-term downside risk. This does not necessarily mean that a major trend reversal is imminent, but it could indicate that a pullback or consolidation phase may be in store.
BTC DO NOT DOING THIS, I WILL TRY All this has been stretched out for me for a long time, at 29700 I was not berish, I tried the scalp and that's it. Somehow I believe we can capture this and win a nice profit. Very risky but tempting for me.
We are waiting for spikes and place the order as you like, if I am wrong let the price deny me.
If anyone knows how to post a closed order through the exchange, feel free to contact me, because I don't know how else to do it except for the link
EURUSD: EUR/USD recovered to 1.0600 as USD reversed to declineEUR/USD was pressured in the European session by the conflict in the Middle East and the broad recovery of the USD and US government bond yields. The next key event is the EU Consumer Sentiment Report.
EUR/USD is currently rising for the 3rd day in the past 4 days and is above the 20-day MA. Technical indicators on the daily chart show bullish signals, with RSI moving higher. If the day closes above 1.0640, the bullish momentum could continue. On the contrary, if the price falls below the 1.0500 support, it will attract more selling pressure.
EUR/USD is currently rising for the 3rd day in the past 4 days and is above the 20-day MA. Technical indicators on the daily chart show bullish signals, with RSI moving higher. If the day closes above 1.0640, the bullish momentum could continue. On the contrary, if the price falls below the 1.0500 support, it will attract more selling pressure.
BTCUSD: Pent-up for years, trillions of dollars of institutionalAccording to a blockchain executive at professional services provider Ernst & Young (EY), Bitcoin is seeing strong demand from institutional investors but is still waiting for Bitcoin spot ETF approval to trigger a buying surge.
EY global blockchain leader Paul Brody believes that Bitcoin is seeing a lot of pent-up demand from institutions due to US regulators not approving spot Bitcoin ETFs for years.
Brody discussed the outlook for cryptocurrency adoption on CNBC's Crypto Decrypted on October 23, claiming that trillions of dollars of institutional money is waiting to join Bitcoin once the BTC ETF is approved.
CHF is becoming a new carry trade object?“CHF is now becoming an attractive funding currency,” said Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale London. SNB officials are wise enough to know that not meeting a rate hike from the ECB won't help the franc, but I'm sure they feel comfortable as long as it doesn't go too far.”
The SNB decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% amid concerns that the 11% increase in CHF against USD since November is reducing growth prospects, however, this also helps Switzerland control inflation. .
GBPUSD - Double IB and is it going to reach 50% OE?GBPUSD is compressing and making a double insider bar. After a compression,we usually get a big outburst move. We have placed our entry on the confirmation bar according to our smart money framework and the target for the 50% OE distance as indicated on the chart.
Trader Order Details:
GBPUSD(Short)
E - 1.2146
SL - 1.2332
T - 1.2040
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
CRUDE OIL PRICE ACTION I have marked the zone above which I am becoming bullish and expect testing at least POC of the same range and daily 89.30.
After filling the gap we got a strong reaction.
We are currently above 50 daily MA, above VAL and closing today we get a bullish divergence on the weekly RSI.
We are monitoring the price and if they show weakness, I do not rule out the possibility that there will not be a test of $80
USA has also begun to use its reserves, which are currently at a minimum.
Is BTCUSD third attempt at 24919 going to hold?(4)We have now successfully hit target on Bitcoin. The chart image shows the sequence of events from 1-4 as per the trade order. As per our previous post, here are the trade order details.
Trade order details:
BTCUSD(Long)
E - 26086
SL - 24919
T - 29045
Target hit on 16th Oct 2023
2959point profits @£1000 risk
= £2535
Great job on those who followed us on this trade.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
Refn Image from previous post
DXY HOW I LOOK AT THIS CHART The last two analyzes that I will mark below showed that I was bearish below the weekly level. After that, a bullish divergence appeared and the shorts were manipulated.
Therefore, this zone was retested and if it is only 1 hour of the saint, we got a strong reaction. Zones that I watch, below the weekly level 106 - bearish, the last price for me.
Above closing if possible daily 106.7 for me the door is open for 108 and the deviation is not yet confirmed.
Below, see my predictions since the beginning of this manipulation
Live Trading Session 242: Closed & potential trades on BTC,etcIn this live trading session video,we look at our open and closed positions and the potential trades setting up for the week on GBPUSD,S&P 500,Brent Oil,Bitcoin and many more.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
BITCOIN IDEA FOR LONG After rejection of 100 and 200 DMA for the second time, at the same time they were at the same price weekly and daily level at 27980.
The zone I marked is supported by a daily level, two weekly levels, a monthly level and a Fibonacci level of 0.618.
Above that zone we have the fibonacci level of 0.382, which is at the same price as the daily level, below the 0.5 fibonacci level, below which the 50DMA occurs.
Wait for the setup, if the price appears before this zone, try long.
EURCAD ____ INCOMING BULLISH MOVEHello Guys,
Like AUDCAD (inserted below), price cleared sell-side liquidity (relatively equal lows). Look left on your daily chart to see it.
After clearing the sell-side liquidity, price formed a CHOCH on the daily chart.
I'd like to see a retracement into the daily order block and wait to see if my trade setup will appear before going long.
Follow for more updates.
AUDCAD ANALYSIS
Cheers,
Jabari
NZDCHF ____ INCOMING BEARISH MOVEHello Guys,
NZDCHF traded into a WEEKLY OB and formed a bearish CHOCH on the daily timeframe. The expectation would be that once price trades into the daily OB (this happened on Friday) price would continue to the downside.
Now that we are price has traded into the daily OB, I would like to see how price unfolds in the 1-hour timeframe. If I see a CHOCH on the 1-hour timeframe, I will go short.
Follow for more updates like this.
Cheers,
Jabari.
Brent Oil Short Trade Consideration(1)We are looking at Brent oil for a potential short trade only if the following occurs:
1.Wait for Daily bottom to confirm
2.Then for top to confirm before taking shorts till Weekly Confirmation Bar
low is taken out at 83.46
**We will only be considering this short trade for a very small period as Weekly is in Uptrend**
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
To understand our ideas and videos better,we highly recommend watching our following stream videos:
1.Trader Starter Pack 5 day video course
Look on our channel profile or at our signature section to access it
2.7 steps to achieve consistent trading performance
www.tradingview.com
3.7 steps for strategy construction
www.tradingview.com
Refn weekly Image
DXY NEW MACRO ANALYSISClosing of the day or week below or above this level will determine the DXY movement.
Before this jump in the last analysis, I wrote that divergences were formed and that dxy should now jump.
News along with divergences pushed the price.
If the price keeps this level, the expectation is 108, as was the plan all this time, but we will see what the price shows
DXY NEW WEEKLY LEVEL In the last analysis, we expected 108 final peak, but also below the level of 106,200 is bearish. With what we see now, we got a new weekly level and currently higher probabilities show that we are going into a correction.
Things to watch eurusd and spx primarily.
Closing above this level cancels this setup.
You can check below my opinion about DXY