Gold/USD Monthly Elliott Wave & Fibonacci ProjectionsPEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
This analysis presents a detailed Elliott Wave count on the monthly chart of Gold/USD with Fibonacci extension levels for key price targets.
Wave Structure:
The chart follows a classical 5-wave impulse structure (I to V).
Wave V is currently forming with possible subwave developments marked (1, 2, 3, 4, 5).
Fibonacci Key Levels:
100% ($2,529) — initial projection target
127.2% ($2,778) — intermediate resistance
161.8% ($3,095) — dominant bullish extension target
261.8% ($3,019) — extended bullish zone
Potential Price Movement:
A correction near $2,550 aligns with the Fibonacci 161.8% retracement, followed by a rally to complete wave V.
Long-term resistance and liquidity zones highlighted around $3,095.
Use this projection for long-term trading strategies. Fibonacci and wave alignments may guide stop-loss placements or profit-taking points. Keep an eye on corrections near wave 4 zones for confirmation before further bullish continuation
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to trade any securities or assets. Trading in financial markets involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Tradingstrategy
Solana Retests Golden Fib Levels – Next Leg Up?CRYPTOCAP:SOL has successfully retested the golden Fibonacci levels (0.618 - 0.5) and is now showing signs of strength.
The price has bounced from a strong demand zone, indicating potential for another bullish leg.
DYOR, NFA
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Thank you!
BTCUSDT Technical AnalysisSell Bias Explanation
Risky Entry Zone:
Observation: Price entered the "RISKY ENTRY" zone.
Explanation: This area indicates a potential entry point for short trades. Traders should be cautious and ensure they have confirmation before entering, as it is labeled "risky."
Resistance Zone:
Observation: The chart highlights a "RESISTANCE ZONE."
Explanation: This area acts as a barrier for the price to move higher. The presence of a resistance zone suggests that the price may struggle to break above, creating an opportunity for sellers to step in
Price Closed Below the Protected High:
Observation: An annotation states, "PRICE CLOSED BELOW THE PROTECTED HIGH."
Explanation: This indicates that the price failed to break a critical high point, only sweeping and hunting stops suggesting a bearish sentiment. It reinforces the sell bias as buyers are unable to push the price higher.
Liquidity Grab and Break of Structure (BOS):
Observation: "Liquidity grabbed and BOS" is annotated on the chart.
Explanation: This means that liquidity was taken out, and a structural level was broken, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the bearish side.
Liquidity Grab and Break of Structure (BOS):
Observation: "Liquidity grabbed and BOS" is annotated on the chart.
Explanation: This means that liquidity was taken out, and a structural level was broken, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the bearish side.
Confirmation Entry Zone:
Observation: The chart highlights a "confirmation entry zone."
Explanation: This area provides additional confirmation for entering short trades. Traders looking for a safer entry can consider entering here once the price confirms the bearish setup.
P.R Area (Secure Position):
Observation: "P.R AREA(Possible rejection area) = secure position" is marked on the chart.
Explanation: This area suggests a point where traders can consider securing their positions, either by taking partial profits or tightening stop losses to minimize risk.
Disclaimer 📢
Remember, trading involves risk. Past successful setups do not guarantee future performance. Always conduct your own analysis and use proper risk management strategies.
BTC Dominance Breakdown = Altseason Incoming?BTC dominance (BTC.D) has broken down from key support, signaling a potential altseason ahead.
The breakdown below the 54.11% – 54.85% support zone suggests capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins, which could trigger major moves across the altcoin market.
If you find our work helpful, please like, comment, and follow us for more market insights—all in one place! Stay updated on Forex, Commodities, Crypto, and Global Indices with expert analysis.
What I think trading is...
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Thank you @TradingBrokersView for the great article.
🚨 Bitcoin update! 🚨 BTC rejected at MA50 (4h) inside a Channel Down pattern. If history repeats, we could see a Lower Low at 95K (-10.7%), aligning with MA100 (1d) support. RSI (4h) is confirming bearish momentum.
🔥 Trading Plan: Sell now before further downside!
I was thinking about how to say it, and I came up with this idea.
Thank you again.
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#BTCUSDT 1M
As shown in the chart, it has risen a lot, so it is natural to feel downward pressure.
No one knows how big this downward pressure will be.
However, what I can tell you is the flow of funds.
To see a more detailed flow, you need to look at the gap occurrence status on the 1D chart, but when looking at the overall flow of funds, it is true that a lot of funds are flowing into the coin market.
Selling all of this inflow of funds means that you will not be able to overcome the volatility in the upcoming bull market and will rather increase the probability of suffering losses.
The reason is that the average purchase price is likely to be set too high and is likely to be located in the volatility range.
Therefore, you need to respond according to your investment style.
In other words, if your investment style is one that wants to trade quickly and urgently, a strategy that sells whenever it shows signs of falling would be appropriate to gain profits.
If not, if you have a longer-term outlook or trade mainly in spot transactions, I think it would be better to leave coins (tokens) corresponding to profits rather than selling all of them so that you can more easily purchase them in the future bull market.
Leaving a coin (token) corresponding to the profit means a coin (token) with a purchase principal of 0.
In other words, it means that when the price rises after purchase, the purchase principal is sold.
In that sense, when looking at the BTCUSDT 1M chart, you can see that the Fibonacci ratio point of 1.618 (89050.0) is a very important support and resistance area.
#BTCUSDT 1D
This volatility period is expected to continue until January 31.
Therefore, it is expected that the key will be whether there is support near 101947.24 after this volatility period.
If it falls without support near 101947.24, it is expected that the trend will be determined again by touching the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
If you have been reading my ideas, you will understand that you should not try to create a trading strategy by analyzing charts.
As I mentioned earlier, you should create a trading strategy that suits your investment style with the information obtained from chart analysis.
That is why the opinion that it will fall now and sell everything can be interpreted differently by different people, so you need to be careful.
Some people are currently making profits and others are losing money.
Those who are making profits will have the luxury of waiting even if the price falls, and those who are losing money may be suffering from psychological pressure.
The information I am giving you is to provide information on how to respond to all of these people.
In that sense, you need to focus on the price that I am talking about, that is, the support and resistance points or sections.
If your average purchase price is below the support and resistance points or sections that I am talking about, you can check the downward trend and intensity and judge the situation.
If not, you need to create a response strategy based on how much cash you currently have.
If your current cash holding is less than 20% of your total investment and you feel unstable psychologically, it is a good idea to sell some of it to secure cash.
This will allow you to secure the ability to purchase more even if the price falls, so you will be able to secure a certain level of psychological stability even if the price falls.
I think trading is about responding to your investment style and psychological state in this way.
Therefore, you should calmly look at your current psychological state, check your cash holdings, and create a response strategy that suits your investment style.
This is the strategy I can tell you.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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Gann Trading Strategy | Harmonic Cycle & Vibration ModelGann Harmonic Cycle & Vibration Model Explained | Master Market Timing with Gann's Techniques.
In this video, we explore the Gann Harmonic Cycle-Vibration Model, a powerful trading approach inspired by W.D. Gann's timeless principles. This strategy revolves around the natural laws of market movement, where time and price operate in perfect harmony.
Key highlights:
1. End-to-End Cycles: Understand how markets repeat at consistent intervals, starting from significant highs or lows.
2. Square of 9: Learn how this mathematical tool predicts price movements and time cycles by identifying their natural connection.
3. Angles and Degrees: Discover how critical angles like 45°, 90°, and 135° reveal key support, resistance, and reversal points.
This structured system blends time-based cycles with actionable insights, enabling traders to forecast trends and pinpoint turning points effectively. Dive in to master this incredible trading strategy! Gann Astro works on all this major pairs and many more CAPITALCOM:GOLD CAPITALCOM:US100 BINANCE:BTCUSDT FX:EURUSD
Scalp Like a Pro: 5-Minute Trades for Big Wins in Micro-TradingMorning Trading Fam
I'm sharing how I use just price action and candlesticks for my scalping strategy. We'll look at where to enter and exit trades super fast. Perfect for beginners or to refine your skills. Let's get into it with our TradingView setups. Like, Boost, Follow and Share is much appreciated.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Important Support and Resistance Zone: 0.31600-0.33591
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In order to reduce the auxiliary indicators to one, StochRSI indicator has been added to BW v3.0 indicator.
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The 0.31600-0.33591 zone is an important support and resistance zone.
It is becoming more important because the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart is rising nearby.
In order to turn into a short-term uptrend, the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator must rise above and maintain the price.
Therefore, support around 0.37778 is important.
-
Since the StochRSI indicator is showing a change in slope in the oversold zone, if it shows support around 0.31600-0.33591, it is a time to buy.
If it rises,
1st: 0.37778-0.39641
2nd: 0.42847
You should consider whether to respond depending on whether there is support around the 1st and 2nd above.
If it is supported around 0.42847 and rises, it is expected to start rising to the Fibonacci ratio point of 2.618 (0.61238).
-
For this movement to actually occur, USDT and USDC must maintain a gap uptrend.
In addition, BTC dominance or USDT dominance must show a downtrend.
-----------------------------
The most important element in creating a trading strategy is the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
To do this, you need to understand the arrangement of candles.
When studying charts, it is important to read them repeatedly.
Since we are not studying to become chart analysts, we do not need to memorize various names or patterns.
It is more important to understand what kind of flow is being talked about.
-
The next important thing is the price moving average line.
When studying charts, you will realize that the most important thing in a chart is the average value.
Therefore, you will realize that all indicators express how to return to the average value.
Therefore, it is more important to understand how to interpret the price moving average line than to study complex indicators.
Goodbye, complex indicators!!!
-
If you look at the chart in that sense, you will understand why.
1. M-Signal indicator (MS-Signal indicator) on 1M, 1W, 1D charts indicating trends
2. HA-Low, HA-High indicators for creating trading strategies
3. BW(0), BW(100) indicators for detailed responses
I drew horizontal lines on 1M, 1W, 1D charts to indicate support and resistance points.
The remaining indicators are created for chart analysis, so they are not actually necessary when conducting trading.
You can draw Fibonacci ratios and use them as support and resistance points, but you should not forget that Fibonacci ratios are drawn for chart analysis.
Do not use Fibonacci ratios for the purpose of conducting trading.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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Even if it falls, you should prepare for an uptrend
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-------------------------------------
The High Boundary Zone has been changed to the 101947.24-103706.66 range.
Therefore, anything above 103706.00 is considered a high range.
However, the basic 106133.74 point is likely to act as resistance.
-
The StochRSI indicator is showing a decline to the 50 point range.
Therefore, since volatility is likely to occur, a quick response is required when trading.
Therefore, the point of observation is whether there is resistance near 106133.74.
When a new candle is created, if the StochRSI indicator falls below the 50 point, the key point is whether there is support near 101947.24-103706.66.
If there is support, I think there is a high possibility that the uptrend will continue.
If the StochRSI indicator enters the oversold zone and falls below 101947.24 and shows resistance, you should check whether it touches the BW(0) indicator or the HA-Low indicator.
The 93576.0-34742.35 zone is expected to be an important support and resistance zone.
------------------------------
It seems that a lot of funds have flowed into the coin market through USDC.
Accordingly, the coin market is likely to show an upward trend soon.
As I said before, for the altcoin bull market to start, BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and remain there or show a downward trend.
The maximum decline point of USDT dominance is expected to be around 2.84.
After that, since USDT dominance is expected to show an upward trend, the coin market is expected to show a downward wave.
If it goes up by 4.97 or more, I think you can definitely tell that a downtrend is in progress.
-
Based on the above coin market cap chart, this uptrend is expected to be the last uptrend.
Therefore, even if the price falls, a trading strategy that prepares for an uptrend is needed.
The point to watch is whether this uptrend can rise to the Fibonacci ratio point of 2.24 (116940.43).
This volatility period is expected to continue until January 31.
The next volatility period is expected to be around February 9-16.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------
Interpretation of support and resistance points and Fib ratios
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-------------------------------------
There was a change in the chart while I was writing the idea.
Therefore, please refer to the chart attached below.
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(TRUMPUSDT.P 1D chart)
Since the chart was created not long ago, it is practically impossible to analyze it.
However, I will take the time to explain it as an extension of the explanation of Fibonacci ratios.
-
(1D chart)
You can check the retracement ratio using the Fibonacci retracement tool on the 1D chart.
(30m chart)
You can check the Fibonacci ratio on the 30m chart and analyze the chart.
However, I think the Fibonacci ratio is a chart tool for chart analysis, so in order to trade, you need to draw support and resistance points by the arrangement of candles.
As I mentioned earlier, since the chart is created not long ago, you can select support and resistance points on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, so even if you draw support and resistance lines, their role is likely to be weak.
Therefore, I think it is better to trade these coins (tokens) in short-term transactions such as scalping or day trading.
If the trading period is long, the psychological burden is likely to increase, which can lead to incorrect trading.
-
The HA-MS indicator was activated to indicate support and resistance points.
If you activate the Fibonacci ratio drawn on the 1D chart, it is as follows.
You can see that the maximum range we can trade is 28.0-70.654.
If we go outside this range, a new wave will be created, so new support and resistance points are needed.
At this time, a chart tool that can help interpret the chart is the Trend-Based Fib Extension.
-
Since the HA-Low indicator was formed at the 40.245 point, we can see that the low point has been formed.
Therefore, if it shows support near the HA-Low indicator, it is a time to buy (LONG).
Since it has currently fallen below the HA-Low indicator, it is highly likely that it will update the latest low, so it was possible to enter a sell (SHORT) position when it fell from the HA-Low indicator.
As the price falls, I think it is better not to make a new transaction until the HA-Low indicator is newly created or the existing HA-Low indicator rises and shows support.
If it is supported by the HA-Low indicator and rises,
- 46.618
- 63.882-70654
You should check for support in the above section.
If it is not supported, it is a time to sell in parts.
In my chart, the MS-Signal indicator is an important indicator in terms of trend.
Therefore, in order to turn into an uptrend, the price must be maintained above the MS-Signal indicator.
-
(12h chart)
The current chart is so new that it is virtually impossible to see the trend.
If you want to draw with the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool, the largest time frame chart you can draw is the 12h chart.
The point where the finger points is the selection point.
(30m chart)
The chart above is drawn with the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool.
The circles marked on the far right correspond to important support and resistance zones.
When interpreting Fibonacci ratios, the 0, 0.5, 0.618, and 1 ratios can be interpreted as key ratios.
Therefore, if it falls below 1, it may fall to around 1.618 (2.198), so caution is required when trading.
The 0.618 (35.663) ~ 0.5 (39.612) section can be interpreted as an important support and resistance section.
Since the HA-Low indicator is formed within this section, it can be interpreted that the role of support and resistance is emphasized.
Even if the Fibonacci ratio is drawn in this way, it can be helpful in setting the timing of trading only when it is interpreted in accordance with the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
Otherwise, it is likely that your subjective thoughts will be included and the transaction will proceed in the wrong direction.
-
The support and resistance points must be drawn by looking at the arrangement of candles on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts to be activated as support and resistance points.
The support and resistance points drawn on the time frame chart below may have a weak role, so caution is required when trading.
In that sense, I hope you understand the content of this idea as how to comprehensively interpret the Fibonacci ratio and support and resistance points.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
M-Signal indicator is starting to converge
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-------------------------------------
This volatility period for ETH is expected to last until January 26.
However, since the volatility period for BTC is expected to last until January 31, it is expected that it will be important to find support at some point after the volatility period until January 26.
It is showing a downward trend from 3265.0-3321.30, which is an important support and resistance area for ETH.
The key is whether it can quickly rise to or above 3265.0-3321.30 and maintain the price.
If it falls below 3136.41, it is likely to fall near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, so a countermeasure is needed.
Therefore, during this volatility period, we need to check in which direction it deviates from the 3136.41-3321.30 range.
If it is supported near 3136.41, it is expected that there will be an attempt to rise again to the 3265.0-3321.30 range.
-
As the downtrend progresses, the M-Signal indicators on the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts have begun to converge.
Therefore, it seems likely that it will diverge again after the volatility period on January 26 or January 31.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------
Netflix Eyes $1,200: Can It Break Key Levels to Soar Higher?Good morning, trading family!
Netflix (NFLX) is looking exciting right now, and here’s what I’m watching:
-If we drop below $973, we might see $950 support come into play.
-But if we break above $991, there’s potential for a rally to $1,055 and higher—with $1,200 as the ultimate goal.
Big moves could be coming, so keep these levels on your radar!
If this analysis helped you, I’d love to hear your thoughts. Drop a comment, give it a like, or share with others. Let’s trade smarter and live better!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Understanding R/R and Win Rate: The Key to Profitable TradingWhy R/R and Win Rate Matter❓
What’s the one thing that separates consistent traders from those stuck in a cycle of losses? It’s the combination of Risk-to-Reward (R/R) and Win Rate. These two metrics aren’t just numbers—they’re the foundation of every profitable trading strategy.
Today, we’ll break down the facts and numbers behind R/R and Win Rate. You’ll learn how to evaluate whether your strategy is sustainable and why high win rates alone might not be enough. Let’s dive in!
🔍 The Relationship Between R/R and Win Rate
This chart tells the story: your R/R ratio determines the percentage of trades you need to win to break even. But let’s be clear—breaking even isn’t our goal. We aim for profitability, and that’s only possible when your R/R and Win Rate are optimized.
Here are some key examples:
R/R = 5:1 (High Risk, Low Reward):
Out of 100 trades, you need to win 98% just to break even.
One or two losses can wipe out all your profits.
Conclusion: This is unsustainable.
R/R = 1:1 (Balanced):
To break even, you need to win 50% of your trades.
While this ratio is popular, achieving consistent profits requires a Win Rate over 80%, which is challenging.
R/R = 1:2 (Ideal Minimum):
You only need to win 33% of your trades to break even.
With a 50-60% Win Rate, your profits can grow exponentially over time.
Conclusion: This is the most realistic and effective ratio for both beginner and professional traders.
Common Misconceptions About High Win Rates
Many traders mistakenly equate high win rates with profitability. While a Win Rate of 80% might sound impressive, it can still lead to losses if paired with poor R/R.
Example:
Imagine a trader whose win rate is 80%, but their R/R is 5:1. Those 20% losing trades will erase all profits. This is why it’s crucial to analyze both metrics together and not get distracted by flashy results.
The Psychology Behind R/R and Losing Streaks 🧠
Losing streaks are inevitable, even with a solid strategy. What matters is how your R/R and mindset help you navigate them:
The Role of R/R in Losing Streaks:
With an R/R of 1:2, even after a streak of 5 losses, a single win can recover your account.
On the other hand, with an R/R of 5:1, a losing streak can wipe you out entirely.
Mindset Tip:
Don’t fear losses. Instead, focus on executing your strategy consistently. Understand that a few losses won’t hurt your account if your R/R is optimized.
Crafting a Sustainable Strategy 🔧
Here’s how to create a strategy that balances R/R and Win Rate:
Step 1: Define Your R/R
Set a minimum R/R of 1:2 for your trades. This ensures that even with a 40% Win Rate, you remain profitable.
Step 2: Backtest Your Strategy
Test your strategy on historical data to calculate its true Win Rate. Adjust your R/R based on the results.
Step 3: Manage Risk Effectively
Never risk more than 1-2% of your account per trade. This minimizes the impact of losing streaks and allows for long-term growth.
💬 What’s your R/R ratio and how do you manage losing streaks? Share your insights in the comments below!
I’m Skeptic , dedicated to simplifying trading and helping you achieve mastery step by step. Let’s keep growing together! 🤍
Example of explanation of chart analysis and trading strategy
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-------------------------------------
There was an inquiry asking for detailed information on how to analyze charts and create trading strategies accordingly, so I will take the time to explain it.
Before reading this article, you need a basic understanding of charts.
That is, you need to understand candles and price moving averages.
If you study this first and then read this content, I think you will have some understanding of trading.
---------------------------------------
Whether you are trading spot or futures, marking support and resistance points according to the arrangement of candles on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts is the first task you need to do before trading.
To do this, you need to understand the arrangement of candles.
Therefore, before using my indicator, it is better to study candles first and understand the arrangement of candles.
When studying candles, it is better not to try to memorize the names or shapes of various patterns.
This is because the overall understanding of candles is important, not the various patterns of candles.
If you study with a book or video, you will be able to understand candles after reading or watching them at least 3 times.
We study charts to trade, not to analyze charts and teach them to others, so we need to study efficiently and save time.
-
If you study candles, you will naturally understand the price moving average.
The indicator corresponding to the price moving average is the MS-Signal indicator.
This MS-Signal indicator consists of the M-Signal indicator and the S-Signal indicator, and the main indicator is the M-Signal indicator.
Therefore, we added the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart to the 1D chart so that we can see the overall trend.
-
You can see the arrangement of the MS-Signal (M-Signal of 1M, 1W, 1D charts) indicators in the example chart.
Currently, since the M-Signal of the 1M chart > the M-Signal of the 1W chart, we can see that it is a reverse array.
If you understand the price moving average, you will understand that we should not trade when it is a reverse array, but when it is a regular array.
Therefore, since the current state of the example chart is a reverse array, it is not suitable for trading.
However, the reason we brought this chart in this state is because the M-Signal indicators of the 1M and 1W charts are converging.
As convergence progresses, it will eventually diverge.
Therefore, since the possibility of price volatility increases, the possibility of capturing the timing for trading increases depending on whether there is support at the support and resistance points.
-
The indicators included in the example chart are drawn as horizontal lines to indicate support and resistance points.
This work performs the same role as the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts according to the arrangement of the candles mentioned above.
Therefore, on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, horizontal lines are drawn on the indicators to indicate support and resistance points.
You can draw horizontal lines on indicators that are horizontal for at least 3 candles, and if possible, 5 candles.
-
Among the HA-MS indicators, the important indicators are the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.
The HA-Low and HA-High indicators are indicators created for trading on the Heikin-Ashi chart.
Therefore, it is the next most important indicator after the MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1M, 1W, 1D charts) indicator that can tell the trend.
You can create a trading strategy depending on whether there is support near the HA-Low, HA-High indicators.
-
The next most important indicator is the BW(0), BW(100) indicator.
When this indicator is created or touched, it is time to respond in detail.
That is, when you are trading with a trading strategy created from the HA-Low, HA-High indicators, when the BW(0), BW(100) indicators are created or touched, you can choose whether to proceed with a split transaction.
In addition, you can understand the OBV, +100, -100 indicators as response points for split transactions.
Therefore, you do not need to indicate support and resistance points for the OBV, +100, -100 indicators.
However, it is recommended to mark support and resistance points for the HA-Low, HA-High, BW(0), BW(100) indicators.
-
If you look at the price position in the example chart, you can see that it is located in the 0.03347-0.03485 range.
And, the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart is passing through this range, and the HA-High indicator of the 1W chart is acting as support and resistance.
Therefore, whether there is support near 0.03485 is an important key point.
If support is confirmed near 0.03485, it is a time to buy.
However, since the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator is passing between 0.03485-0.03814, the point to watch is whether the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator can break through upward.
As I mentioned earlier, if the MS-Signal indicator passes, a trend change will occur, so it is significant.
Therefore, in order to turn into a short-term uptrend, it is likely to be supported around 0.03814-0.03982.
Therefore, the first split selling section will be around 0.03814-0.03982.
At this time, whether to sell or hold depends on your investment style and investment period.
-
Since the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is passing around 0.04341, it is likely to start when the price is maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart in order to turn into a long-term uptrend.
Therefore, the second split selling period will be around the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
This is also something you can choose.
-
An important volume profile section is formed around 0.03038.
Therefore, the 0.03038 point corresponds to a strong support section.
-
(30m chart)
When the time frame chart you are trading is below the 1D chart, it is recommended to activate the 5EMA indicator on the 1D chart.
(I just used the 30m chart as an example. The same principle applies to any time frame chart you usually use.)
This is because there is a high possibility of volatility when the 5EMA of the 1D chart and the M-Signal indicator of the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts are touched.
In other words, you can understand that it plays a certain role of support and resistance.
If it touches the HA-High, BW(100) indicator and falls and falls below the MS-Signal indicator, it will basically touch the HA-Low or BW(0) indicator.
On the other hand, if it touches the HA-Low, BW(0) indicator and rises and rises above the MS-Signal indicator, it will basically touch the HA-High or BW(100) indicator.
However, since it may not do so and may rise or fall in the middle, it is necessary for the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts as mentioned earlier.
The support and resistance points drawn on the 1D chart are currently indicated at the 0.03347 point.
Therefore, even if it falls below the MS-Signal indicator, you can understand that there is a possibility of rising again around 0.03347.
Since the 5EMA of the 1D chart and the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart are passing around 0.03485, we can see that the area around 0.03485 is an important support and resistance zone.
-
Since the StochRSI indicator is currently above 50, we should focus on finding a time to sell.
Since it has fallen below the BW(100) and HA-High indicators, it has fallen too much to start trading with a sell (SHORT) position.
However, if you can respond quickly, you can enter a sell (SHORT) position when it falls from the 0.03411 point where the MS-Signal indicator is passing.
When the StochRSI indicator falls below 50, we should focus on finding a time to buy.
At this time, you can trade based on whether there is support or resistance at the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts or around the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts), 5EMA, HA-Low, HA-High, BW(0), and BW(100) indicators on the 1D chart.
As mentioned earlier, you should not forget that trading strategies can be created based on whether there is support at the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.
Therefore, if possible, it is recommended to trade based on whether there is support near the HA-High indicator point of 0.03443.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
Support and Resistance Zone: 5.907-6.920
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-------------------------------------
(DOTUSDT 1M chart)
From a trend perspective, in order to start an uptrend, the price must be maintained above the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1M chart) indicator.
However, since the volume profile zone is formed around 9.262, the full-scale uptrend is expected to start when it rises above 9.262.
Currently, the HA-High indicator is formed at 26.351.
Therefore, if it continues to rise like this, it is possible that it will touch around 26.351.
However, since it is rare for a 183% increase to rise without a downward wave, there is a possibility that the HA-High indicator will fall and be newly created during the rise.
Therefore, if you confirmed the support near 9.262 and bought, the target point will be until it meets the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart.
Since a strong volume profile section has been formed near 19.370, the point to watch is whether it can break through this section upward.
-
(1D chart)
From a trend perspective, the 5.907-6.920 section is an important support and resistance section.
If it is supported and rises in this section,
1st: 7.480
2nd: 8.468-4.704
3rd: 9.262
4th: 10.131-10.392
You need to create a response strategy depending on whether it is supported or not in the 1st-4th section above.
If it falls below 5.907 and shows resistance, it is likely to fall to around 4.136-4.495.
If the HA-Low indicator is newly created during the decline, whether there is support in that area is important.
-
A volume profile section is formed around 9.262, but a volume profile section is also formed around 10.131.
Therefore, it is expected that a full-scale uptrend will begin only when the 9.262-10.131 section is broken upward.
If you want to trade short term, you can buy when it shows support near 6.920 and respond according to the section I mentioned earlier.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, it is expected that prices below 44K-48K will not be seen in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to this.
If the ATH is renewed, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as support and resistance.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to generate Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous to use it for trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------
Support and Resistance Zone: 35.71-38.93
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-------------------------------------
(AVAXUSDT 1M chart)
The key is whether it can receive support near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1M chart) indicator and break through the 51.54 point upward.
-
(1D chart)
The 35.71-38.93 zone is an important support and resistance zone from a trend perspective.
Therefore, the key is whether it can receive support in this zone and rise to around 44.60.
If not, and it falls below 35.71 and shows resistance, it is expected to touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
If it falls below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, there is a possibility that a long-term downtrend will occur, so caution is required when trading.
Therefore, in the current situation, it is recommended to buy in installments when it is supported in the 35.71-38.93 range, and not buy when it falls below 35.71 and watch the situation.
If you want to trade in the short term, buy when it shows support near 38.93,
1st: 41.31
2nd: 44.60
We recommend a strategy of selling in installments depending on whether there is support near the 1st and 2nd above.
-
In any case, it must rise above 51.54 to create a new upward wave.
Therefore, you should choose how to buy in the 35.71-38.93 range according to your investment style and investment period.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015 following a pattern.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, it is expected that prices below 44K-48K will not be seen in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to this.
If the ATH is renewed, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as support and resistance.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to generate Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous to use it for trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------
Bitcoin: Key Levels, Triggers, and Opportunities Ahead📊 Bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations in recent days, keeping traders on their toes. Are you wondering where the next long or hold triggers might be? Let’s dive into a multi-timeframe analysis, from the weekly chart down to the 4-hour chart, to pinpoint key levels, trends, and opportunities. Whether you're a swing trader or prefer shorter-term setups, this breakdown will help you stay ahead.
📈 Weekly Overview: The Bigger Picture
On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin's primary trend remains clear, with a corrective secondary trend consolidating between $91,000 and $105,000.
Key Weekly Support Levels:
$85,000: A critical zone that aligns with historical reactions.
$81,000 - $82,000: If this level breaks, it could confirm a major trend reversal to the downside.
Perspective:
As long as Bitcoin holds above these key supports, I maintain a bullish bias. Trading in the direction of the primary trend generally offers higher win rates and stronger momentum .
Daily Chart: Recent Breakouts and Market News
Bitcoin's price recently broke out of its short-term range between $91,000 and $100,000, stabilizing above the upper boundary. This breakout has introduced potential long-term hold triggers for traders.
🔍 Key Daily Trigger:
A break and close above $108,660 could serve as a reliable hold trigger, signaling that Bitcoin may resume its primary uptrend.
🔮 Potential Targets:
$112,000
$130,000
$160,000 (long-term target)
💡Additionally, recent political developments, such as Donald Trump’s re-election campaign and potential economic policies, could significantly impact Bitcoin. Here are a few potential scenarios to watch:
1.National Bitcoin Reserves:
If policies favor creating national reserves, Bitcoin's adoption and value could surge.
Crypto Tax Incentives:
2.Potential tax breaks for blockchain projects may attract more capital into the space.
Market Confidence:
3.Political stability or incentives could bring in new institutional investments, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price toward $145,000 or even $249,000 in the long term.
📊 4-Hour Chart: Finding Futures Triggers
Now, let’s move to the 4-hour timeframe, where we can refine our short-term setups.
Key Support Zone:
$100,000 - $102,000: This area serves as a strong support for managing risk in long positions.
Trigger for Longs:
A break above $ 107,042 with confirmation from volume and indicators like the RSI or the 3 SMA (7).
Why it Matters: Confirming the breakout momentum reduces the chances of a false move, increasing the probability of success.
Practical Tips for News-Driven Markets 📰
During high-impact events, such as political announcements or macroeconomic updates, markets often create large wicks and volatile candles. Here's how you can approach these situations:
1.Ignore Volatility Spikes:
Instead of focusing on reactionary candles, analyze the price action before and after the event for clearer signals.
Stick to Confirmations:
2.Avoid impulsive trades and wait for clear breakout signals with validated momentum.
Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture across all timeframes:
Weekly Support Levels: $85,000 and $81,000-$82,000.
Daily Hold Trigger: Above $108,660 for long-term bullish continuation.
4-Hour Futures Trigger: Above $107,042 with volume and oscillator confirmation.
Political and macroeconomic factors in 2025 may further drive Bitcoin’s price action, creating significant opportunities for traders.
💬 What’s your take on Bitcoin’s next move? Are you focusing on long opportunities or preparing for shorts? Let me know in the comments below!
I’m Skeptic , here to simplify trading and help you achieve mastery step by step. Let’s grow and succeed together! 🤍
Example of how to use the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool
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-------------------------------------
There was a question about how to select the selection point when using the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool, so I will take the time to explain the method I use.
Since it is my method, it may be different from your method.
-
Before that, I will explain the difference from the general Fibonacci retracement tool.
The Fibonacci retracement tool uses the Fibonacci ratio as the ratio to be retracement within the selected range.
Therefore, the low and high points are likely to be the selection points.
The reason I say it is likely is because the lowest and highest points are different depending on which time frame chart it was drawn on.
Therefore, in order to use a chart tool that specifies a selection point like this, you must basically understand the arrangement of candles.
If you understand the arrangement of candles, you can draw the support and resistance points that make up it and determine the importance of those support and resistance points.
The HA-MS indicator that I am using is a more objective version of this.
Unlike the published HA-MS indicator, several have been added.
I do not plan to disclose the formulas of these added indicators yet.
However, if you share my ideas, you can use them normally at any time.
The selection point for using the current Fibonacci retracement tool is the point that the fingers are pointing to.
In other words, the 1st finger is the low point, and the 2nd finger is the high point.
One question may arise here.
Why is it the position of the 1st finger?
The reason is that it is the starting point of the current wave.
Therefore, you can find out the retracement ratio in the current rising wave.
In fact, it is not recommended to use the Fibonacci ratio as support and resistance.
This is because it is better to use the Fibonacci ratio to check how much wave is being reached and how much movement is being shown in chart analysis.
However, the Fibonacci ratio can be usefully used when the ATH or ATL is updated.
-
If the Fibonacci Retracement tool was a chart tool that found out the retracement ratio in the current wave, the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool can be said to be a chart tool that found out the extension ratio of the wave.
Therefore, while the Fibonacci Retracement tool requires you to specify two selection points, the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool requires you to specify three selection points.
That's how important it is to understand the arrangement of the candles.
The chart above is an example of drawing to find out the extension ratio of an uptrend
The chart above is an example of drawing to find out the extension ratio of a downtrend
Do you understand how the selection points are specified by looking at the example chart?
-
The chart above is the chart when the 1st finger point is selected.
The chart above is the chart when the 1-1 hand point is selected.
When drawing on a lower time frame chart, you should be careful about which point to select when the arrangement of the candles is ambiguous.
Examples include the 1st finger and the 1-1 finger.
It may be difficult to select 1-1 and 1 depending on whether they are interpreted as small waves or not.
The lower the time frame chart, the more difficult this selection becomes.
Therefore, it is recommended to draw on a higher time frame chart if possible.
The reason is that the Fibonacci ratio is a chart tool used to analyze charts.
In other words, it is not drawn for trading.
In order to trade, you trade based on whether there is support or resistance at the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
The key is whether it can be supported at 21673.4
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-------------------------------------
Important factors when analyzing charts are
- Support and resistance points
- StochRSI indicator
If you have the above two factors, I think you can analyze the charts quickly and briefly.
Support and resistance points should be drawn on 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
You can analyze the chart by checking whether the line drawn in this way is supported or not while referring to the movement of the StochRSI indicator on the 1D chart.
The 21673.4-22013.5 section, which is indicated as a high point boundary section, is likely to act as resistance.
However, since the StochRSI indicator has entered the overbought zone, it is important to see if it can break through the high point boundary zone upward.
In other words, we can see that the high point boundary zone is more likely to act as resistance.
The volatility period is expected to occur around January 29.
Therefore, in order to maintain an upward trend, it must show support at the high point boundary zone after the volatility period.
If not, it will eventually fall.
At this time, what we should pay attention to is the movement of the StochRSI indicator.
The longer the StochRSI indicator remains in the overbought zone, the more likely it is that the StochRSI indicator will show a large decline if there is a slight price decline.
When the StochRSI indicator falls to or below the 50 point, if it shows support at around 21673.4, it is highly likely that it will show an upward trend by breaking through the high point boundary zone upward.
To maintain the current short-term uptrend, the price needs to stay above 21068.2-21321.9.
------------------------------------
The settings for the StochRSI indicator are 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D).
The source value is ohlc4.
With these settings, you can see the movement similar to the StochRSI indicator on my chart.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
I need objective information to help me interpret the chart
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Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
With this decline, the BW(100) indicator was created at 104556.23.
Accordingly, the high boundary section is the 101947.24-104556.23 section.
Unfortunately, since it fell below 101947.24, the key is whether it can receive support near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator, i.e., around 98892.0, and rise.
If it falls below the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator and shows resistance, it is highly likely to turn into a short-term downtrend.
-
The settings for the StochRSI indicator I use are 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D).
The source value is ohlc4.
If you set it as above, it will show a movement similar to the StochRSI indicator on my chart.
When the StochRSI indicator
- falls in the overbought zone,
- is located near the 50 point,
- rises in the oversold zone,
volatility is likely to occur.
However, you should check whether there is support near the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts and think of a corresponding response plan.
Therefore, by checking the relationship between the movement of the StochRSI indicator and the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, you can choose the point where you can make a trade.
If you can calculate these selection points, I think it is highly likely that you will be able to create a trading strategy that suits your investment style.
It is good to predict future movements with trends or waves, but if you can calculate the point where you can actually make a trade, I think you can create a better trading strategy.
-
I wrote a long article, but
1. Will the StochRSI indicator fall in the overbought zone?
2. Will it receive support near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator?
3. Will it rise to the high boundary section?
You should focus on the three things above.
---------------------------------
The method of drawing support and resistance points is drawn according to the arrangement of candles.
This method can actually include subjective thoughts, so it requires skill.
Therefore, if possible, I recommend that you sign up as a paid member of TradingView and share my charts with me, and use the HA-High, HA-Low, BW(100), BW(0), OBV, +100, -100 indicators that appear on 1M, 1W, and 1D charts by the HA-MS_BW+v2 indicator as horizontal lines and use them as support and resistance points.
Then, even if others look at the charts, they will be easier to understand, and it will be easier to share opinions on trading strategies according to each other's investment styles.
By utilizing indicators that anyone can use in this way, you will be able to view the charts objectively.
If you trade based on what others tell you, you will likely not be able to respond quickly when sudden volatility occurs.
Therefore, when creating a trading strategy, you should roughly think about how to respond to all cases, both when it goes up and when it goes down.
That's why it's best to draw support and resistance points or other reference materials on your chart if possible and prepare countermeasures accordingly.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
Need to check the movement of StochRSI and BW(100)
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-------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The StochRSI indicator is showing a change in slope in the overbought zone.
However, due to this rise, the StochRSI indicator may touch the 100 point.
Accordingly, the StochRSI indicator will soon turn downward.
Therefore, when the StochRSI indicator shows a downward trend, the key is whether it can be supported around 101947.24-106133.74.
-
As the BW auxiliary indicator touches the 50 point, the BW(100) indicator is about to be newly created.
Accordingly, the direction in which the newly created BW(100) indicator is created based on the current BW(100) indicator point of 106133.74 is the point of observation.
Since the BW auxiliary indicator must fall from the 100 point in order for the BW(100) indicator to be created, the price will fall when the BW(100) indicator is created.
The BW(100) indicator has currently been on an upward trend.
This time, the point of observation is whether the BW(100) indicator can be created above 106133.74.
The BW(100) indicator and the BW(0) indicator are paired indicators.
Since the BW(100) indicator fell as it was created, the BW(0) indicator was created, so it can be seen that the wave has been initialized.
This time, since the BW(0) indicator is rising as it is being created, if the BW(100) indicator is newly created this time, the wave will be initialized.
This wave refers to the box section that moves in the BW(0) ~ BW(100) section.
The actual wave or trend starts when it deviates from the BW(0) ~ BW(100) section.
The HA-Low and HA-High indicators can also be interpreted as BW(0), BW(100).
However, the HA-Low and HA-High indicators are more likely to show wider movements than the BW(0), BW(100) indicators, so they are more advantageous in creating trading strategies.
In that sense, the BW(0) and BW(100) indicators can be said to be indicators that can be responded to in detail in trading strategies.
-
The high point boundary section was formed as the HA-High and BW(100) indicators were created.
Accordingly, it will enter the high point section only when it rises above the 101947.24-106.133.74 section.
If so, the possibility of starting a new upward wave increases.
On the other hand, when the HA-Low indicator and BW(0) indicator are generated, a low point boundary section is formed.
-
Not all indicators move at all times according to the interpretation method.
However, it can only help you find a basis for buying or selling when conducting actual transactions.
The movement of these indicators can be said to be like finding a lighthouse in the vast sea of trading.
-
The next volatility period is between January 23rd and 30th.
We need to look at how BTC moves as it passes through this volatility period.
As explained above, since the StochRSI indicator is in the overbought section, it is important to see whether the STochRSI indicator shows a downward trend as it passes through this volatility period.
The MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1D chart) indicator is rising to around 97461.86.
Accordingly, in order to maintain a short-term uptrend, the price should be maintained above the MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1D chart) indicator.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an uptrend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
How to view and respond to this is up to you.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
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