Interpretation of support and resistance points and Fib ratios
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There was a change in the chart while I was writing the idea.
Therefore, please refer to the chart attached below.
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(TRUMPUSDT.P 1D chart)
Since the chart was created not long ago, it is practically impossible to analyze it.
However, I will take the time to explain it as an extension of the explanation of Fibonacci ratios.
-
(1D chart)
You can check the retracement ratio using the Fibonacci retracement tool on the 1D chart.
(30m chart)
You can check the Fibonacci ratio on the 30m chart and analyze the chart.
However, I think the Fibonacci ratio is a chart tool for chart analysis, so in order to trade, you need to draw support and resistance points by the arrangement of candles.
As I mentioned earlier, since the chart is created not long ago, you can select support and resistance points on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, so even if you draw support and resistance lines, their role is likely to be weak.
Therefore, I think it is better to trade these coins (tokens) in short-term transactions such as scalping or day trading.
If the trading period is long, the psychological burden is likely to increase, which can lead to incorrect trading.
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The HA-MS indicator was activated to indicate support and resistance points.
If you activate the Fibonacci ratio drawn on the 1D chart, it is as follows.
You can see that the maximum range we can trade is 28.0-70.654.
If we go outside this range, a new wave will be created, so new support and resistance points are needed.
At this time, a chart tool that can help interpret the chart is the Trend-Based Fib Extension.
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Since the HA-Low indicator was formed at the 40.245 point, we can see that the low point has been formed.
Therefore, if it shows support near the HA-Low indicator, it is a time to buy (LONG).
Since it has currently fallen below the HA-Low indicator, it is highly likely that it will update the latest low, so it was possible to enter a sell (SHORT) position when it fell from the HA-Low indicator.
As the price falls, I think it is better not to make a new transaction until the HA-Low indicator is newly created or the existing HA-Low indicator rises and shows support.
If it is supported by the HA-Low indicator and rises,
- 46.618
- 63.882-70654
You should check for support in the above section.
If it is not supported, it is a time to sell in parts.
In my chart, the MS-Signal indicator is an important indicator in terms of trend.
Therefore, in order to turn into an uptrend, the price must be maintained above the MS-Signal indicator.
-
(12h chart)
The current chart is so new that it is virtually impossible to see the trend.
If you want to draw with the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool, the largest time frame chart you can draw is the 12h chart.
The point where the finger points is the selection point.
(30m chart)
The chart above is drawn with the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool.
The circles marked on the far right correspond to important support and resistance zones.
When interpreting Fibonacci ratios, the 0, 0.5, 0.618, and 1 ratios can be interpreted as key ratios.
Therefore, if it falls below 1, it may fall to around 1.618 (2.198), so caution is required when trading.
The 0.618 (35.663) ~ 0.5 (39.612) section can be interpreted as an important support and resistance section.
Since the HA-Low indicator is formed within this section, it can be interpreted that the role of support and resistance is emphasized.
Even if the Fibonacci ratio is drawn in this way, it can be helpful in setting the timing of trading only when it is interpreted in accordance with the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
Otherwise, it is likely that your subjective thoughts will be included and the transaction will proceed in the wrong direction.
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The support and resistance points must be drawn by looking at the arrangement of candles on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts to be activated as support and resistance points.
The support and resistance points drawn on the time frame chart below may have a weak role, so caution is required when trading.
In that sense, I hope you understand the content of this idea as how to comprehensively interpret the Fibonacci ratio and support and resistance points.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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Tradingstrategy
M-Signal indicator is starting to converge
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This volatility period for ETH is expected to last until January 26.
However, since the volatility period for BTC is expected to last until January 31, it is expected that it will be important to find support at some point after the volatility period until January 26.
It is showing a downward trend from 3265.0-3321.30, which is an important support and resistance area for ETH.
The key is whether it can quickly rise to or above 3265.0-3321.30 and maintain the price.
If it falls below 3136.41, it is likely to fall near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, so a countermeasure is needed.
Therefore, during this volatility period, we need to check in which direction it deviates from the 3136.41-3321.30 range.
If it is supported near 3136.41, it is expected that there will be an attempt to rise again to the 3265.0-3321.30 range.
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As the downtrend progresses, the M-Signal indicators on the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts have begun to converge.
Therefore, it seems likely that it will diverge again after the volatility period on January 26 or January 31.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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Netflix Eyes $1,200: Can It Break Key Levels to Soar Higher?Good morning, trading family!
Netflix (NFLX) is looking exciting right now, and here’s what I’m watching:
-If we drop below $973, we might see $950 support come into play.
-But if we break above $991, there’s potential for a rally to $1,055 and higher—with $1,200 as the ultimate goal.
Big moves could be coming, so keep these levels on your radar!
If this analysis helped you, I’d love to hear your thoughts. Drop a comment, give it a like, or share with others. Let’s trade smarter and live better!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Understanding R/R and Win Rate: The Key to Profitable TradingWhy R/R and Win Rate Matter❓
What’s the one thing that separates consistent traders from those stuck in a cycle of losses? It’s the combination of Risk-to-Reward (R/R) and Win Rate. These two metrics aren’t just numbers—they’re the foundation of every profitable trading strategy.
Today, we’ll break down the facts and numbers behind R/R and Win Rate. You’ll learn how to evaluate whether your strategy is sustainable and why high win rates alone might not be enough. Let’s dive in!
🔍 The Relationship Between R/R and Win Rate
This chart tells the story: your R/R ratio determines the percentage of trades you need to win to break even. But let’s be clear—breaking even isn’t our goal. We aim for profitability, and that’s only possible when your R/R and Win Rate are optimized.
Here are some key examples:
R/R = 5:1 (High Risk, Low Reward):
Out of 100 trades, you need to win 98% just to break even.
One or two losses can wipe out all your profits.
Conclusion: This is unsustainable.
R/R = 1:1 (Balanced):
To break even, you need to win 50% of your trades.
While this ratio is popular, achieving consistent profits requires a Win Rate over 80%, which is challenging.
R/R = 1:2 (Ideal Minimum):
You only need to win 33% of your trades to break even.
With a 50-60% Win Rate, your profits can grow exponentially over time.
Conclusion: This is the most realistic and effective ratio for both beginner and professional traders.
Common Misconceptions About High Win Rates
Many traders mistakenly equate high win rates with profitability. While a Win Rate of 80% might sound impressive, it can still lead to losses if paired with poor R/R.
Example:
Imagine a trader whose win rate is 80%, but their R/R is 5:1. Those 20% losing trades will erase all profits. This is why it’s crucial to analyze both metrics together and not get distracted by flashy results.
The Psychology Behind R/R and Losing Streaks 🧠
Losing streaks are inevitable, even with a solid strategy. What matters is how your R/R and mindset help you navigate them:
The Role of R/R in Losing Streaks:
With an R/R of 1:2, even after a streak of 5 losses, a single win can recover your account.
On the other hand, with an R/R of 5:1, a losing streak can wipe you out entirely.
Mindset Tip:
Don’t fear losses. Instead, focus on executing your strategy consistently. Understand that a few losses won’t hurt your account if your R/R is optimized.
Crafting a Sustainable Strategy 🔧
Here’s how to create a strategy that balances R/R and Win Rate:
Step 1: Define Your R/R
Set a minimum R/R of 1:2 for your trades. This ensures that even with a 40% Win Rate, you remain profitable.
Step 2: Backtest Your Strategy
Test your strategy on historical data to calculate its true Win Rate. Adjust your R/R based on the results.
Step 3: Manage Risk Effectively
Never risk more than 1-2% of your account per trade. This minimizes the impact of losing streaks and allows for long-term growth.
💬 What’s your R/R ratio and how do you manage losing streaks? Share your insights in the comments below!
I’m Skeptic , dedicated to simplifying trading and helping you achieve mastery step by step. Let’s keep growing together! 🤍
Example of explanation of chart analysis and trading strategy
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There was an inquiry asking for detailed information on how to analyze charts and create trading strategies accordingly, so I will take the time to explain it.
Before reading this article, you need a basic understanding of charts.
That is, you need to understand candles and price moving averages.
If you study this first and then read this content, I think you will have some understanding of trading.
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Whether you are trading spot or futures, marking support and resistance points according to the arrangement of candles on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts is the first task you need to do before trading.
To do this, you need to understand the arrangement of candles.
Therefore, before using my indicator, it is better to study candles first and understand the arrangement of candles.
When studying candles, it is better not to try to memorize the names or shapes of various patterns.
This is because the overall understanding of candles is important, not the various patterns of candles.
If you study with a book or video, you will be able to understand candles after reading or watching them at least 3 times.
We study charts to trade, not to analyze charts and teach them to others, so we need to study efficiently and save time.
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If you study candles, you will naturally understand the price moving average.
The indicator corresponding to the price moving average is the MS-Signal indicator.
This MS-Signal indicator consists of the M-Signal indicator and the S-Signal indicator, and the main indicator is the M-Signal indicator.
Therefore, we added the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator of the 1M chart to the 1D chart so that we can see the overall trend.
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You can see the arrangement of the MS-Signal (M-Signal of 1M, 1W, 1D charts) indicators in the example chart.
Currently, since the M-Signal of the 1M chart > the M-Signal of the 1W chart, we can see that it is a reverse array.
If you understand the price moving average, you will understand that we should not trade when it is a reverse array, but when it is a regular array.
Therefore, since the current state of the example chart is a reverse array, it is not suitable for trading.
However, the reason we brought this chart in this state is because the M-Signal indicators of the 1M and 1W charts are converging.
As convergence progresses, it will eventually diverge.
Therefore, since the possibility of price volatility increases, the possibility of capturing the timing for trading increases depending on whether there is support at the support and resistance points.
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The indicators included in the example chart are drawn as horizontal lines to indicate support and resistance points.
This work performs the same role as the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts according to the arrangement of the candles mentioned above.
Therefore, on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, horizontal lines are drawn on the indicators to indicate support and resistance points.
You can draw horizontal lines on indicators that are horizontal for at least 3 candles, and if possible, 5 candles.
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Among the HA-MS indicators, the important indicators are the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.
The HA-Low and HA-High indicators are indicators created for trading on the Heikin-Ashi chart.
Therefore, it is the next most important indicator after the MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1M, 1W, 1D charts) indicator that can tell the trend.
You can create a trading strategy depending on whether there is support near the HA-Low, HA-High indicators.
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The next most important indicator is the BW(0), BW(100) indicator.
When this indicator is created or touched, it is time to respond in detail.
That is, when you are trading with a trading strategy created from the HA-Low, HA-High indicators, when the BW(0), BW(100) indicators are created or touched, you can choose whether to proceed with a split transaction.
In addition, you can understand the OBV, +100, -100 indicators as response points for split transactions.
Therefore, you do not need to indicate support and resistance points for the OBV, +100, -100 indicators.
However, it is recommended to mark support and resistance points for the HA-Low, HA-High, BW(0), BW(100) indicators.
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If you look at the price position in the example chart, you can see that it is located in the 0.03347-0.03485 range.
And, the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart is passing through this range, and the HA-High indicator of the 1W chart is acting as support and resistance.
Therefore, whether there is support near 0.03485 is an important key point.
If support is confirmed near 0.03485, it is a time to buy.
However, since the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator is passing between 0.03485-0.03814, the point to watch is whether the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator can break through upward.
As I mentioned earlier, if the MS-Signal indicator passes, a trend change will occur, so it is significant.
Therefore, in order to turn into a short-term uptrend, it is likely to be supported around 0.03814-0.03982.
Therefore, the first split selling section will be around 0.03814-0.03982.
At this time, whether to sell or hold depends on your investment style and investment period.
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Since the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is passing around 0.04341, it is likely to start when the price is maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart in order to turn into a long-term uptrend.
Therefore, the second split selling period will be around the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
This is also something you can choose.
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An important volume profile section is formed around 0.03038.
Therefore, the 0.03038 point corresponds to a strong support section.
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(30m chart)
When the time frame chart you are trading is below the 1D chart, it is recommended to activate the 5EMA indicator on the 1D chart.
(I just used the 30m chart as an example. The same principle applies to any time frame chart you usually use.)
This is because there is a high possibility of volatility when the 5EMA of the 1D chart and the M-Signal indicator of the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts are touched.
In other words, you can understand that it plays a certain role of support and resistance.
If it touches the HA-High, BW(100) indicator and falls and falls below the MS-Signal indicator, it will basically touch the HA-Low or BW(0) indicator.
On the other hand, if it touches the HA-Low, BW(0) indicator and rises and rises above the MS-Signal indicator, it will basically touch the HA-High or BW(100) indicator.
However, since it may not do so and may rise or fall in the middle, it is necessary for the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts as mentioned earlier.
The support and resistance points drawn on the 1D chart are currently indicated at the 0.03347 point.
Therefore, even if it falls below the MS-Signal indicator, you can understand that there is a possibility of rising again around 0.03347.
Since the 5EMA of the 1D chart and the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart are passing around 0.03485, we can see that the area around 0.03485 is an important support and resistance zone.
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Since the StochRSI indicator is currently above 50, we should focus on finding a time to sell.
Since it has fallen below the BW(100) and HA-High indicators, it has fallen too much to start trading with a sell (SHORT) position.
However, if you can respond quickly, you can enter a sell (SHORT) position when it falls from the 0.03411 point where the MS-Signal indicator is passing.
When the StochRSI indicator falls below 50, we should focus on finding a time to buy.
At this time, you can trade based on whether there is support or resistance at the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts or around the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts), 5EMA, HA-Low, HA-High, BW(0), and BW(100) indicators on the 1D chart.
As mentioned earlier, you should not forget that trading strategies can be created based on whether there is support at the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.
Therefore, if possible, it is recommended to trade based on whether there is support near the HA-High indicator point of 0.03443.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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Support and Resistance Zone: 5.907-6.920
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(DOTUSDT 1M chart)
From a trend perspective, in order to start an uptrend, the price must be maintained above the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1M chart) indicator.
However, since the volume profile zone is formed around 9.262, the full-scale uptrend is expected to start when it rises above 9.262.
Currently, the HA-High indicator is formed at 26.351.
Therefore, if it continues to rise like this, it is possible that it will touch around 26.351.
However, since it is rare for a 183% increase to rise without a downward wave, there is a possibility that the HA-High indicator will fall and be newly created during the rise.
Therefore, if you confirmed the support near 9.262 and bought, the target point will be until it meets the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart.
Since a strong volume profile section has been formed near 19.370, the point to watch is whether it can break through this section upward.
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(1D chart)
From a trend perspective, the 5.907-6.920 section is an important support and resistance section.
If it is supported and rises in this section,
1st: 7.480
2nd: 8.468-4.704
3rd: 9.262
4th: 10.131-10.392
You need to create a response strategy depending on whether it is supported or not in the 1st-4th section above.
If it falls below 5.907 and shows resistance, it is likely to fall to around 4.136-4.495.
If the HA-Low indicator is newly created during the decline, whether there is support in that area is important.
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A volume profile section is formed around 9.262, but a volume profile section is also formed around 10.131.
Therefore, it is expected that a full-scale uptrend will begin only when the 9.262-10.131 section is broken upward.
If you want to trade short term, you can buy when it shows support near 6.920 and respond according to the section I mentioned earlier.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, it is expected that prices below 44K-48K will not be seen in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to this.
If the ATH is renewed, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as support and resistance.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to generate Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous to use it for trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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Support and Resistance Zone: 35.71-38.93
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-------------------------------------
(AVAXUSDT 1M chart)
The key is whether it can receive support near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1M chart) indicator and break through the 51.54 point upward.
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(1D chart)
The 35.71-38.93 zone is an important support and resistance zone from a trend perspective.
Therefore, the key is whether it can receive support in this zone and rise to around 44.60.
If not, and it falls below 35.71 and shows resistance, it is expected to touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
If it falls below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, there is a possibility that a long-term downtrend will occur, so caution is required when trading.
Therefore, in the current situation, it is recommended to buy in installments when it is supported in the 35.71-38.93 range, and not buy when it falls below 35.71 and watch the situation.
If you want to trade in the short term, buy when it shows support near 38.93,
1st: 41.31
2nd: 44.60
We recommend a strategy of selling in installments depending on whether there is support near the 1st and 2nd above.
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In any case, it must rise above 51.54 to create a new upward wave.
Therefore, you should choose how to buy in the 35.71-38.93 range according to your investment style and investment period.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been in an upward trend since 2015 following a pattern.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, it is expected that prices below 44K-48K will not be seen in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to this.
If the ATH is renewed, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as support and resistance.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to generate Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous to use it for trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------
Bitcoin: Key Levels, Triggers, and Opportunities Ahead📊 Bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations in recent days, keeping traders on their toes. Are you wondering where the next long or hold triggers might be? Let’s dive into a multi-timeframe analysis, from the weekly chart down to the 4-hour chart, to pinpoint key levels, trends, and opportunities. Whether you're a swing trader or prefer shorter-term setups, this breakdown will help you stay ahead.
📈 Weekly Overview: The Bigger Picture
On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin's primary trend remains clear, with a corrective secondary trend consolidating between $91,000 and $105,000.
Key Weekly Support Levels:
$85,000: A critical zone that aligns with historical reactions.
$81,000 - $82,000: If this level breaks, it could confirm a major trend reversal to the downside.
Perspective:
As long as Bitcoin holds above these key supports, I maintain a bullish bias. Trading in the direction of the primary trend generally offers higher win rates and stronger momentum .
Daily Chart: Recent Breakouts and Market News
Bitcoin's price recently broke out of its short-term range between $91,000 and $100,000, stabilizing above the upper boundary. This breakout has introduced potential long-term hold triggers for traders.
🔍 Key Daily Trigger:
A break and close above $108,660 could serve as a reliable hold trigger, signaling that Bitcoin may resume its primary uptrend.
🔮 Potential Targets:
$112,000
$130,000
$160,000 (long-term target)
💡Additionally, recent political developments, such as Donald Trump’s re-election campaign and potential economic policies, could significantly impact Bitcoin. Here are a few potential scenarios to watch:
1.National Bitcoin Reserves:
If policies favor creating national reserves, Bitcoin's adoption and value could surge.
Crypto Tax Incentives:
2.Potential tax breaks for blockchain projects may attract more capital into the space.
Market Confidence:
3.Political stability or incentives could bring in new institutional investments, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price toward $145,000 or even $249,000 in the long term.
📊 4-Hour Chart: Finding Futures Triggers
Now, let’s move to the 4-hour timeframe, where we can refine our short-term setups.
Key Support Zone:
$100,000 - $102,000: This area serves as a strong support for managing risk in long positions.
Trigger for Longs:
A break above $ 107,042 with confirmation from volume and indicators like the RSI or the 3 SMA (7).
Why it Matters: Confirming the breakout momentum reduces the chances of a false move, increasing the probability of success.
Practical Tips for News-Driven Markets 📰
During high-impact events, such as political announcements or macroeconomic updates, markets often create large wicks and volatile candles. Here's how you can approach these situations:
1.Ignore Volatility Spikes:
Instead of focusing on reactionary candles, analyze the price action before and after the event for clearer signals.
Stick to Confirmations:
2.Avoid impulsive trades and wait for clear breakout signals with validated momentum.
Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture across all timeframes:
Weekly Support Levels: $85,000 and $81,000-$82,000.
Daily Hold Trigger: Above $108,660 for long-term bullish continuation.
4-Hour Futures Trigger: Above $107,042 with volume and oscillator confirmation.
Political and macroeconomic factors in 2025 may further drive Bitcoin’s price action, creating significant opportunities for traders.
💬 What’s your take on Bitcoin’s next move? Are you focusing on long opportunities or preparing for shorts? Let me know in the comments below!
I’m Skeptic , here to simplify trading and help you achieve mastery step by step. Let’s grow and succeed together! 🤍
Example of how to use the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool
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If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
There was a question about how to select the selection point when using the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool, so I will take the time to explain the method I use.
Since it is my method, it may be different from your method.
-
Before that, I will explain the difference from the general Fibonacci retracement tool.
The Fibonacci retracement tool uses the Fibonacci ratio as the ratio to be retracement within the selected range.
Therefore, the low and high points are likely to be the selection points.
The reason I say it is likely is because the lowest and highest points are different depending on which time frame chart it was drawn on.
Therefore, in order to use a chart tool that specifies a selection point like this, you must basically understand the arrangement of candles.
If you understand the arrangement of candles, you can draw the support and resistance points that make up it and determine the importance of those support and resistance points.
The HA-MS indicator that I am using is a more objective version of this.
Unlike the published HA-MS indicator, several have been added.
I do not plan to disclose the formulas of these added indicators yet.
However, if you share my ideas, you can use them normally at any time.
The selection point for using the current Fibonacci retracement tool is the point that the fingers are pointing to.
In other words, the 1st finger is the low point, and the 2nd finger is the high point.
One question may arise here.
Why is it the position of the 1st finger?
The reason is that it is the starting point of the current wave.
Therefore, you can find out the retracement ratio in the current rising wave.
In fact, it is not recommended to use the Fibonacci ratio as support and resistance.
This is because it is better to use the Fibonacci ratio to check how much wave is being reached and how much movement is being shown in chart analysis.
However, the Fibonacci ratio can be usefully used when the ATH or ATL is updated.
-
If the Fibonacci Retracement tool was a chart tool that found out the retracement ratio in the current wave, the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool can be said to be a chart tool that found out the extension ratio of the wave.
Therefore, while the Fibonacci Retracement tool requires you to specify two selection points, the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool requires you to specify three selection points.
That's how important it is to understand the arrangement of the candles.
The chart above is an example of drawing to find out the extension ratio of an uptrend
The chart above is an example of drawing to find out the extension ratio of a downtrend
Do you understand how the selection points are specified by looking at the example chart?
-
The chart above is the chart when the 1st finger point is selected.
The chart above is the chart when the 1-1 hand point is selected.
When drawing on a lower time frame chart, you should be careful about which point to select when the arrangement of the candles is ambiguous.
Examples include the 1st finger and the 1-1 finger.
It may be difficult to select 1-1 and 1 depending on whether they are interpreted as small waves or not.
The lower the time frame chart, the more difficult this selection becomes.
Therefore, it is recommended to draw on a higher time frame chart if possible.
The reason is that the Fibonacci ratio is a chart tool used to analyze charts.
In other words, it is not drawn for trading.
In order to trade, you trade based on whether there is support or resistance at the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
The key is whether it can be supported at 21673.4
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-------------------------------------
Important factors when analyzing charts are
- Support and resistance points
- StochRSI indicator
If you have the above two factors, I think you can analyze the charts quickly and briefly.
Support and resistance points should be drawn on 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
You can analyze the chart by checking whether the line drawn in this way is supported or not while referring to the movement of the StochRSI indicator on the 1D chart.
The 21673.4-22013.5 section, which is indicated as a high point boundary section, is likely to act as resistance.
However, since the StochRSI indicator has entered the overbought zone, it is important to see if it can break through the high point boundary zone upward.
In other words, we can see that the high point boundary zone is more likely to act as resistance.
The volatility period is expected to occur around January 29.
Therefore, in order to maintain an upward trend, it must show support at the high point boundary zone after the volatility period.
If not, it will eventually fall.
At this time, what we should pay attention to is the movement of the StochRSI indicator.
The longer the StochRSI indicator remains in the overbought zone, the more likely it is that the StochRSI indicator will show a large decline if there is a slight price decline.
When the StochRSI indicator falls to or below the 50 point, if it shows support at around 21673.4, it is highly likely that it will show an upward trend by breaking through the high point boundary zone upward.
To maintain the current short-term uptrend, the price needs to stay above 21068.2-21321.9.
------------------------------------
The settings for the StochRSI indicator are 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D).
The source value is ohlc4.
With these settings, you can see the movement similar to the StochRSI indicator on my chart.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
I need objective information to help me interpret the chart
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-------------------------------------
With this decline, the BW(100) indicator was created at 104556.23.
Accordingly, the high boundary section is the 101947.24-104556.23 section.
Unfortunately, since it fell below 101947.24, the key is whether it can receive support near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator, i.e., around 98892.0, and rise.
If it falls below the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator and shows resistance, it is highly likely to turn into a short-term downtrend.
-
The settings for the StochRSI indicator I use are 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D).
The source value is ohlc4.
If you set it as above, it will show a movement similar to the StochRSI indicator on my chart.
When the StochRSI indicator
- falls in the overbought zone,
- is located near the 50 point,
- rises in the oversold zone,
volatility is likely to occur.
However, you should check whether there is support near the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts and think of a corresponding response plan.
Therefore, by checking the relationship between the movement of the StochRSI indicator and the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, you can choose the point where you can make a trade.
If you can calculate these selection points, I think it is highly likely that you will be able to create a trading strategy that suits your investment style.
It is good to predict future movements with trends or waves, but if you can calculate the point where you can actually make a trade, I think you can create a better trading strategy.
-
I wrote a long article, but
1. Will the StochRSI indicator fall in the overbought zone?
2. Will it receive support near the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator?
3. Will it rise to the high boundary section?
You should focus on the three things above.
---------------------------------
The method of drawing support and resistance points is drawn according to the arrangement of candles.
This method can actually include subjective thoughts, so it requires skill.
Therefore, if possible, I recommend that you sign up as a paid member of TradingView and share my charts with me, and use the HA-High, HA-Low, BW(100), BW(0), OBV, +100, -100 indicators that appear on 1M, 1W, and 1D charts by the HA-MS_BW+v2 indicator as horizontal lines and use them as support and resistance points.
Then, even if others look at the charts, they will be easier to understand, and it will be easier to share opinions on trading strategies according to each other's investment styles.
By utilizing indicators that anyone can use in this way, you will be able to view the charts objectively.
If you trade based on what others tell you, you will likely not be able to respond quickly when sudden volatility occurs.
Therefore, when creating a trading strategy, you should roughly think about how to respond to all cases, both when it goes up and when it goes down.
That's why it's best to draw support and resistance points or other reference materials on your chart if possible and prepare countermeasures accordingly.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
Need to check the movement of StochRSI and BW(100)
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-------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The StochRSI indicator is showing a change in slope in the overbought zone.
However, due to this rise, the StochRSI indicator may touch the 100 point.
Accordingly, the StochRSI indicator will soon turn downward.
Therefore, when the StochRSI indicator shows a downward trend, the key is whether it can be supported around 101947.24-106133.74.
-
As the BW auxiliary indicator touches the 50 point, the BW(100) indicator is about to be newly created.
Accordingly, the direction in which the newly created BW(100) indicator is created based on the current BW(100) indicator point of 106133.74 is the point of observation.
Since the BW auxiliary indicator must fall from the 100 point in order for the BW(100) indicator to be created, the price will fall when the BW(100) indicator is created.
The BW(100) indicator has currently been on an upward trend.
This time, the point of observation is whether the BW(100) indicator can be created above 106133.74.
The BW(100) indicator and the BW(0) indicator are paired indicators.
Since the BW(100) indicator fell as it was created, the BW(0) indicator was created, so it can be seen that the wave has been initialized.
This time, since the BW(0) indicator is rising as it is being created, if the BW(100) indicator is newly created this time, the wave will be initialized.
This wave refers to the box section that moves in the BW(0) ~ BW(100) section.
The actual wave or trend starts when it deviates from the BW(0) ~ BW(100) section.
The HA-Low and HA-High indicators can also be interpreted as BW(0), BW(100).
However, the HA-Low and HA-High indicators are more likely to show wider movements than the BW(0), BW(100) indicators, so they are more advantageous in creating trading strategies.
In that sense, the BW(0) and BW(100) indicators can be said to be indicators that can be responded to in detail in trading strategies.
-
The high point boundary section was formed as the HA-High and BW(100) indicators were created.
Accordingly, it will enter the high point section only when it rises above the 101947.24-106.133.74 section.
If so, the possibility of starting a new upward wave increases.
On the other hand, when the HA-Low indicator and BW(0) indicator are generated, a low point boundary section is formed.
-
Not all indicators move at all times according to the interpretation method.
However, it can only help you find a basis for buying or selling when conducting actual transactions.
The movement of these indicators can be said to be like finding a lighthouse in the vast sea of trading.
-
The next volatility period is between January 23rd and 30th.
We need to look at how BTC moves as it passes through this volatility period.
As explained above, since the StochRSI indicator is in the overbought section, it is important to see whether the STochRSI indicator shows a downward trend as it passes through this volatility period.
The MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1D chart) indicator is rising to around 97461.86.
Accordingly, in order to maintain a short-term uptrend, the price should be maintained above the MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1D chart) indicator.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an uptrend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
How to view and respond to this is up to you.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
-----------------
The key is whether there is support near 240.54
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If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
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-------------------------------------
(SOLUSDT 1D chart)
As the price rises, the BW(100) indicator is showing a new movement to be created.
Accordingly, whether it can break through the 240.54 point upward is the key.
The existing high point boundary section is 240.54-256.90.
-
The important support and resistance section in the arrangement of candles is 211.64-222.61.
As evidence to support this, we can point out that the HA-High indicator point (222.61) on the 1W chart and the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator are rising.
-
The current low boundary range is 182.87-194.46.
If it is supported and rises near the low boundary range, it is a time to buy in terms of trading strategy.
If it is resisted and falls near the high boundary range, it is a time to sell in terms of trading strategy.
-
The StochRSI indicator is showing a change in slope in the overbought range.
Accordingly, the key is whether there is support near the existing high boundary range of 240.54-256.90.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------
The point of interest is whether it can rise above 3.2983-3.3750
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If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
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Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
(XRPUSDT 1D chart)
The 3.618 (3.2983) point of the Fibonacci ratio drawn in the big picture corresponds to the last point.
To complement this, I added the Pobonacci ratio drawn in the small picture.
Accordingly, the point to watch is whether the price can be maintained by rising above the left Fibonacci ratio 3.618 (3.2983) ~ right Fibonacci ratio 0.618 (3.3750) range.
If it receives support near the right Fibonacci ratio 0.618 (3.3750) and rises, it is expected to rise to around 1 (4.2278).
The current important support and resistance range is the 25102-2.6013 range.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
That is, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
As you can see from the LOG chart, the uptrend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you to decide how to view and respond to this.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
-----------------
Big picture box zone: 93576.0-106133.74
(Title) The point of interest is whether it can escape from the important support and resistance zones in the big picture
-------------------------------------
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If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
Because the coin market has become volatile, it is necessary to check what USDT and USDC will look like.
If USDT or USDC shows a gap-up pattern, it means that funds have flowed into the coin market.
If it shows a gap-down pattern, it means that funds have flowed out of the coin market.
If USDT or USDC gapped down, there is a possibility of profit taking, which is an outflow of funds while driving up the price.
This movement will eventually lead to a decline in the coin market.
(BTC.D 1D chart)
If BTC dominance falls below 55.01 and remains or shows a downward trend, I think there is a high possibility that an altcoin bull market will begin.
(USDT.D 1M chart)
If USDT dominance rises above 4.97, I think the coin market is likely to show a large decline and show a downward trend.
If USDT dominance falls, it is expected to fall to around 2.84 and then show an upward trend.
If it touches around 2.84 and rises, the coin market is likely to turn into a downtrend, so you should think about a countermeasure for this.
Because the rising USDT dominance means that the coin market is likely to show a downtrend.
----------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
If the price is maintained above 97461.86, BTC is likely to show a short-term uptrend.
At this time, the resistance zone is
1st: 101947.24
2nd: 106133.74
It is likely to be around the 1st and 2nd above.
Therefore, the 101947.24-106133.74 zone corresponds to the high point boundary zone.
-
(1M chart)
The short-term uptrend I mentioned earlier is actually meaningless in the big picture.
Since the BW(100) indicator of the 1M chart was created at the 93576.0 point, the 93576.0 point corresponds to the high point boundary point.
Therefore, the price holding above 93576.0 means that it is in the high point range.
Therefore, if it falls below 93576.0, it will fall from the high point range, so it is highly likely that a downtrend will begin in the big picture.
You can see how important the area around the 93576.0 point is.
-
(1W chart)
The HA-High indicator of the 1W chart is formed at the 94742.35 point.
The BW(100) indicator on the 1W chart is formed at the 104463.99 point.
Therefore, the 94742.35-104463.99 section corresponds to the high point boundary section when viewed on the 1W chart.
Therefore, in order to continue the uptrend, it must rise above the 94742.35-104463.99 section.
If not, if it falls below 94742.35, it is likely to show a downtrend.
Since the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart is in the oversold section, we need to check whether the StochRSI indicator turns upward due to the price increase this week.
Among the interpretation methods of the StochRSI indicator, based on the 50 point,
- When it is below 50, you should focus on finding the time to buy,
- When it is above 50, you should focus on finding the time to sell.
In particular, when entering the overbought or oversold zone, it is necessary to focus more on where the price shows support and resistance.
------------------------------------
To summarize the above, the important support and resistance zones in the big picture are the 93576.0-94742.35 zone and the 104463.99-106133.74 zone.
Because it is highly likely that a new trend will start when it breaks out of these two zones, you should trade within the box zone until then.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire BTC zone.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems that it has been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
That is, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
As you can see from the LOG chart, the uptrend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you to decide how to view and respond to this.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
-----------------
The key is whether it can fall below 1453.08
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If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
(USDKRW 12M chart)
The exchange rate has already been on an upward trend.
-
(1M chart)
The point to watch is whether it can fall below 1439.94 and then break through the rising channel indicated by the circle.
If not, it can rise along the rising trend line.
-
(1W chart)
The point to watch is whether it can fall below 1439.94 and fall below the rising trend line.
Support range is
1st: 1422.72-1439.94
2nd: 1354.50-1372.40
If the decline continues, it is likely to be supported near the 1st or 2nd above.
-
(1D chart)
In order to turn into a short-term downtrend, it must fall after encountering resistance at the 1453.08 point.
Therefore, the key is whether it can fall after encountering resistance near 1453.08.
If not, and it goes up,
1st: 1468.42
2nd: 1494.70
You need to check if you can get resistance near the 1st and 2nd above.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
Next Volatility Period:Around January 22nd - Around January 25th
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If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
It broke through the important support and resistance area of 3265.0-3321.30.
The key is whether it can receive support at the 3438.16 point in order to turn into a short-term uptrend.
It did not touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, but it touched and rose near 2895.47, so if the price fails to maintain above 3438.16 this time, it is likely to fall below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, the point of interest is which direction it deviates from the 3265.0-3438.16 section.
If it shows a short-term uptrend, the 3831.12-3996.22 section is likely to act as resistance.
This is because the 3831.12-3996.22 section corresponds to the high point boundary section.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an uptrend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, it is expected that this Fibonacci ratio will be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
How to view and respond to this is up to you.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
-----------------
Next Volatility Period: Around January 29
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
The chart is ultimately composed of the flow of funds.
Therefore, I think it is important to check the movement of the chart before collecting information on all issues.
Because funds are likely to react before all issues.
That is why there is no mention of issues in my chart description.
----------------------------------------
(NAS100USD 1M chart)
The key is whether NAS100USD can rise above 21068.2.
If it fails to rise, it is expected to touch the MS-Signal (M-Signal) indicator.
When the decline begins, you should check if the HA-High indicator is newly created.
The fact that the HA-High indicator is created means that it has fallen from the high point range.
-
(1W chart)
The HA-High (21321.9) ~ BW(100) (21744.0) range corresponds to the high point boundary range.
Therefore, the upward trend can begin only when the 21321.9-21744.0 range is broken upward.
It has fallen near the MS-Signal (M-Signal) indicator.
Therefore, the point of observation is whether the price can be maintained above 20357.0 and rise.
-
If the StochRSI indicator falls from the overbought range and then fails to immediately fall, but rises to the overbought range again and then falls, the decline is likely to be stronger.
Therefore, this decline is likely to show a stronger decline.
Therefore, if it falls below the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart, it is likely to touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
-
(1D chart)
This volatility period is until January 13.
The point of interest is which direction it deviates from the 20703.6-21068.2 range after this volatility period.
The next volatility period is around January 29.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
Important support and resistance zone: 3265.0-3321.30
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
It fell below the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart while falling from the important support and resistance zone.
Accordingly, the key is whether it can rise to the vicinity of 3265.0-3321.30 and receive support.
If it fails to rise, it is expected to eventually touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
-
(30m chart)
As I mentioned in the BTC analysis, the key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.
In other words, the key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above 3438.16.
Several indicators are passing near the important support and resistance zone of 3265.0-3321.30.
Therefore, we can see that it is an important zone.
If it fails to rise above 3265.0-3321.30, it is expected to touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, the point to watch is whether it can receive support and rise from the current price position (around 3136.41).
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, you can see that the upward trend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, I expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------
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🔍 Risk/Reward Analysis:
Every trade or investment should start with a thorough risk/reward assessment. This ensures you're not just chasing gains but are aware of the potential downside.
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Define your entry and exit points before you trade. This discipline keeps your strategy on track, whether the market moves in your favor or against it.
🏞️ Embrace Market Volatility:
Accept drawdowns as part of the trading journey. Just as you'd celebrate profits, handle losses with the same composure to maintain your strategic approach.
🔄 Consistency in Strategy:
Avoid tweaking your strategy after a loss. Stick to your rules to foster a consistent trading methodology.
🔧 Utilize All Available Tools:
Leverage every tool at your disposal on platforms like TradingView—indicators, charts, and risk management features—to make informed decisions.
🎯 Set Profit Targets & Stop Losses:
Implement break-even points and stop-loss orders to secure profits and minimize losses, ensuring each trade is managed with precision.
💰 Focus on Capital Preservation:
Your primary goal should be to protect and grow your capital, not just to celebrate short-term wins. Long-term sustainability is key.
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Use your gains wisely to compound your investments rather than risking them on speculative bets. Let your edge work for you over time.
🌟 Master Your Trading Edge:
Identify what gives you an advantage in the market, be it technical analysis, fundamental insights, or a unique approach, and harness it consistently.
💵 Implement Dollar Cost Averaging for Stability:Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is your ally for those looking to invest without timing the market. By investing a fixed amount at regular intervals, you buy more shares when prices are low 📉 and fewer when prices are high 📈, averaging out the cost over time. This strategy mitigates the impact of volatility 🌪️ and reduces the risk of investing a lump sum at a peak price.
Consistent Investment: Set up a schedule to invest, say, weekly or monthly, into your chosen assets. 🗓️
Emotional Discipline: DCA helps remove emotion from investing decisions, promoting a disciplined approach. 😌
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Incorporate DCA into your broader strategy to enhance your risk/reward balance, ensuring that you're not just reacting to market highs and lows but methodically building your investment base. 💡
Important support and resistance zone: 93576.0-94742.35
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please click "Boost" as well.
Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The key is whether it can receive support near the important support and resistance zone of 93576.0-94742.35 and rise above 97461.86.
A short-term uptrend is expected to be possible only if it rises above 97461.86.
The support and resistance zones are marked with circles.
-
(30m chart)
The point to watch is which direction it deviates from the 92792.05-97461.86 section and maintains.
If it meets the HA-Low indicator and rises, it is highly likely that it will re-determine the trend when it meets the HA-High indicator.
This is the same as the BW(0) and BW(100) indicators.
If the 5EMA of the 1D chart > M-Signal of the 1D chart changes, it is highly likely that it will show a short-term uptrend.
In order to continue the short-term uptrend, it must show support near 97461.86.
If not, the 97461.86 area will act as resistance.
Since the StochRSI indicator has touched the 100 point, we need to see if it can rise above 94742.35 and receive support.
Since the 5EMA and BW(100) indicators of the 1D chart are passing near 94742.35, it confirms that the area around 94742.35 is an important support and resistance area.
The 94742.35 point is the HA-High indicator point of the 1W chart.
If it goes down, it is important to see if it can be supported by the HA-Low indicator, BW(0) indicator, and 93576.0.
The 93576.0 point is the BW(100) indicator point of the 1M chart.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
--------------------------------------------------
- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
-
The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------