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Tradingsystem

Comprehensive Trading Strategy - ConsensioDisclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Identify Time Horizon First and most important is identifying the time frame that you want to trade. I primarily trade the daily chart using Tyler Jenks’ Consensio. It was designed to capture long term trends. If followed it will ensure that you do not miss out on a trend and it will also get you out before it fully reverses. “We want 90% of the cookie” -Tyler Jenks There will be times when we cost ourselves a small amount of opportunity but that will be peanuts in comparison to the larger trends that will be captured. Even though it was designed for higher time frames (TFs), specifically the weekly, it can still be used on smaller TFs based on your understanding and time availability. Decisions need to be made each time a candle closes, therefore you need to be available, or out of all positions, every time that happens. I trade the daily chart because I know that I will be available every day for the candle close. I also like to trade the stock market, commodities, and FOREX as well as crypto because the daily closes are staggered throughout the afternoon and it gives me time to manage my positions. If you prefer to day trade then this strategy can be used for the 1m - 1h candles. However it doesn’t seem to be too conducive to anything above 1h, if trading 24/7 markets. For example: if trading the 4h then will not have enough time for position to develop before going to bed. Regardless of what TF you select you can zoom out to determine longer term trends, however you should only use one TF for making decisions. For example: I trade the daily chart and will zoom out to the weekly when I am looking for major reversals. However, if the price is signaling entries on the weekly then that is irrelevant because I make decisions based on the daily chart. Identify Trend “The purest form of Consensio is three Moving Averages without the price” -Tyler Jenks Once you know what time frame you are going to trade then you need a reliable way to identify the trend. I have found Consensio to be the single most powerful tool for recognizing trends (as well as signaling entries, exits and reversals). It is a system that seems very simple on the surface and potentially even unoriginal. However the deeper you dig the more you will uncover. To start you need to go to the source directly: Consensio - A New Trading System Deep Dive Into Consensio The notes that I have on it span well over 100 pages and I couldn’t possibly sum that all up in this post. Nevertheless I will attempt to cover the most important parts of the puzzle. Important: Watch the videos above or else below will not make sense. I have four subcategories for trending markets that are somewhat similar to Elliott Waves. 1) Short, medium and long term trend all in alignment. For bull trend: price > Short MA > Medium MA > Long MA (Strong trend) 2) Minor Correction (Small pullback moves against overall trend) 3) Major Correction (ABC type of correction that forms lower high but finds support at major boundary levels - Long MA, horizontal or trend line) 4) Potential Reversal (Price closes below long term MA and starts turning it over) The moving averages should be dialed in to your specific time frame to help identify each subcategory above. When the asset is in a strong trend you want to see the Short Term MA act as support / resistance. A close above / below the Short Term MA indicates a minor correction. When there is a minor correction you want the Medium Term MA to act as support / resistance. A close above / below the Medium Term MA indicates a major correction taking place. When there is a major correction that doesn’t quite reverse the trend then you want the Long Term MA to act as support / resistance. A close above or below the Long Term MA indicates a potential reversal. If in a strong trend then expect price to quickly react from the Long Term MA and continue the trend. For example: in a bull market the long term MA should act as strong support / provide a strong bounce. If it doesn't and the price closes below it instead then that is an indication that the bull market is getting exhausted. When the Long Term MA starts to show signs of a reversal then I will add a Longer Term MA (default is 200) and / or I will zoom out to the weekly chart. This really helps me to understand if it is just a major correction within a market that is still trending or if a full on reversal is to be expected. Being able to distinguish major corrections from reversals is the hardest part about consistently beating the market in the long run. Once you are comfortable with that then it mainly comes down to patience, discipline and diligence in regards to acting on signals and managing risk. Entry & Exit Signals 5% when Price crosses Short Term MA (default is 4) 10% when Price crosses Medium Term MA (default is 9) 15% when Short Term MA crosses Medium Term MA 20% when Medium Term MA turns over (if it was trending down, then watch for it to turn up) 25% Price cross Long Term MA & Long Term MA flattens / turns over 25% Golden Cross with the Medium Term MA & Long Term MA If multiple happens at once then sum the %’s. For Example: P close < S & M MA then enter 15% . If I am not in position then price crossing MA’s would trigger entries. If I am in a position then it would trigger exits. In rare cases I will flip my position by exiting a short and immediately entering a long, or vice-versa. Entries and exits are done as soon as possible after the candle closes. I trade the daily chart so I will wait for the daily candle to close before making decisions and then I will try to make sure I get filled within 30 minutes (will take a market order if necessary). If you try to front run the candle close then you will make more mistakes than it is worth. It is very important to only make decisions after the candle closes. Everything else is noise and you cannot make decisions based on noise. I may pass on signals if it would enter me against a longer term trend. For Example: Price closes above Short Term and Medium Term MA’s and they cross over in a bullish manner. 30% - 50% long entry signaled. May choose to pass if Long Term MA is bearish. I can completely pass on this entry in favor of waiting for a short if the price is below the Long Term MA and the Long Term MA is in a strong bear trend. In this case I will expect Long Term MA to act as strong resistance and will wait for price to close back below shorter term MA’s to trigger a short entry. It takes time to reverse a trend. In the above example the Long Term MA is in a strong bear trend while price appears to be rallying through it after 50% long entry is signaled. I would pass on long entries and be very confident that the price isn’t going to blow right through my Long Term MA (due to the downward angle). It very well might reverse the trend, however that will take time. If the price is above a Long Term MA that is angled down then the MA will act as a magnet for the price until it flattens / turns over. Passing on the first long entries that are signaled does not mean that I will pass up on it all together, it just means that I think it is too early / risky. I would strongly prefer to wait for a golden cross with the Long Term MA flattened, or angled up, to go ahead and fully enter. In the example above I would wait for a pullback to the Long Term MA. If it supports above and gets a golden cross with the Medium Term MA then I would be much more inclined to take that entry. It is very important to understand the difference between opportunity cost vs capitalizing on a loss. As traders we need to be completely comfortable with missing out on opportunity and extremely diligent about avoiding / minimizing losses. Therefore it is okay to pass on possible entries that are less than ideal however it is not okay to pass up on exits that feel similar. Stop Losses & Risk Management I determine my position size and leverage based on the amount of risk that I would be assuming. If an entry is triggered then I will use the Parabolic SAR or the Bill Williams Fractal to determine my risk. If SAR is too tight then I will use the Fractal. I use the medium and long term MA’s to determine what is or is not too tight. Prefer stop to be above long term MA but has to be above medium MA. I am trading Consensio, and it does not allow for stop losses in this manner. Instead it demands that you hold onto a position through the candle close and that you scale out in pieces (see above 'Entries & Exits'). This is best in 99%+ of the time. However that really limits the leverage that can be used. If trading the daily chart 3X - 5X would be the absolute max. I tend to prefer 5X - 10X leverage for a number of reasons: -Minimizes exchange risk -Can minimize slippage -Still gives me plenty of flexibility to place stop above prior Fractal / SAR Below shows an example entry triggered and my thought process for where to place the stop along with a risk / leverage calculation. Once I understand the risk, then I can calculate the position size. You should always think of risk as the amount you stand to lose opposed to exposure amount. I do not care about the exposure amount. I care about how much I stand to lose... how much I am risking. I care about controlling my downside and limiting it to less than 2% of my trading capital. In the above example the risk is 7.10% and the max leverage is 14.08%. I never use the max leverage because getting liquidating comes with significantly higher fees. In this case I would use 10X or less leverage and I would make sure to set a market stop loss below the liquidation price. If you get liquidated then it will likely be a ~22% fee. If you take a market stop before the liquidation triggers then it will be a ~2% fee. I currently like to cap my risk at $500 per trade. $500 (USD I wish to risk) / 0.071 (calculated risk based on wick above Fractal) = $7,042 (exposure) $7,042 is my maximum exposure. With 10X leverage $704.20 is the most I will need for margin. Once I understand my position size, leverage and margin requirements then the position size can be easily calculated based on the Entry & Exit Signals above. Trailing Stop Losses I consider myself 100% entered when I have $500 at risk. If the price moves in my favor then I will trail the stop loss. If I trail it to the point where it is at break even, or better, then I will not consider myself fully entered anymore. Even though I still have the full original exposure, I am no longer assuming any risk and the latter is all that matters to me. Therefore I would feel comfortable adding to my exposure up until the point where I am risking another $500. In the example above we get a great entry before a strong trend starts (also happened to follow descending triangle breakdown which provided great confirmation). The price quickly moves in our favor to the point where the stop is adjusted to break even, or very close to it. With no risk I do not consider myself to be fully exposed anymore and I feel comfortable adding to my position up to an amount that would risk $500. Need to be very careful with this because adding to a profitable position after a big move can completely ruin your trade. I will use the TD’ Sequential , RSI and Average Directional Index to confirm that the trend still has room to go. I will also check horizontals and trends to make sure I’m not selling support / buying resistance. In the example above I would really like adding because all of the above are in my favor. This can be thought of as manual unbalancing which is the opposite of how most people approach allocating capital. Automatic rebalancing will sell the most profitable positions and add to the lesser profitable positions in order to keep the same allocation percentages. For example: if allocations are 50% Apple and 50% Amazon then Amazon outperforms. It will be something like 45% Apple and 55% Amazon. Rebalancing would sell Amazon and buy Apple so that it is 50:50 again. I have always thought that is completely backwards. I want to allocate my capital to the best performing assets. If I am in a position that is really moving in my favor then I am thinking about adding to it. I would never take away from a more profitable position to add to a lesser profitable one just for the sake of balancing my portfolio. Conclusion What is outlined above is enough to ensure that you do not miss out on a trend and it also ensures that you will get out before it fully reverses. Don’t take me word for it, go do some backtesting yourself. That is when the power of Consensio will really come to life. When trying out a new strategy I always recommend to start with an extremely small amount of money that is > $0 and I also recommend zooming in. I think that it is very important to have some skin in the game so that you feel the pain and pleasure of losing and winning. However I think that is should be very nominal. If you have a $10,000 trading roll then I would take $100 and trade the 3m chart. Focus on learning the intricacies and making sound decisions. Also focus on ROI and how long it takes to generate 10%, 50% or 100%+ returns opposed the dollar amount being returned. Regardless of what time frame you decide to trade I would always start with a very small TF. The reason is that the daily / weekly charts could take years to teach what the 3m and 5m charts can teach in days. The decision making process should be exactly the same regardless of the TF. There are a ton of variables and intricate situations that you can put yourself into by trading small TF’s. Thinking your way through these situations is how you internalize and gain confidence in the trading system as well as the decision making process. Facing these situations before you have significant money on the line is what I consider batting practice. “We don't rise to the level of our expectations, we fall to the level of our training.” -Archilochos After a couple weeks of trading the shorter TF’s I felt comfortable putting significant money to work on the Daily chart. However, I consider myself a fast learner and that process could take longer for others.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Sawcruhteez
16
Bovie Medical Corporation made me 61.49% profit.This is the second stock this year that made me a 61% profit. AMEX:BVX . Previously it was Nevsun (check out this post). The system gave a buy signal for this stock on 24th Apr 2018 and a position was entered at 3.50. It was held for about 6 months. The price actually soared to 7.00++ and then it came down recently as the market declines. Today it was sold at 5.65, a whopping 61.49% profit. The only disappointing thing is that it didn't become my multibaggar for the year. It was, for a short moment in September when the price hovered above 7. Anyway with market DJ:DJI getting beaten down due to the ongoing trade war and treasury yield spike, I am doubtful I can see a multibaggar this year.
B
by diyquant
CAD/JPY Aug 2018 (Here we go again!) This will be my views of CAD/JPY -0.03% (Aug 2018) Please make sure to read the "update" comment as there will be changes along the way. Cheers. S0nic Disclaimer: The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. We, Sonicr Mastery dot com is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Short
by SonicDeejay
[EURUSD] +1% Down Correction w/ Spectro™ MThis is a signal using Spectro™ M So the first thing we have to observe is that after a long run-up after the dip we're seeing that the resistance drew by our Auto Pivot System, that's the Adaptative Fibonacci mode, at 1.1578 held the price well. The Specter Clouds™ predicts not only the oversold area but also predicts the sell target, it tells you how far off an organic move we are, so if you measure from where we are now to the bottom of the red cloud that's our 1% safe target close to 1.1472 As you can see from past trades the clouds can be very precise prediction future price. We're coming from a downtrend, shorting would be trading with the trend, we can tell the trend is down because of the Trend Analyzer that plots the background as red, but now it just turned orange, since we're using the special Specter's TA mode it means that a huge price movement is about to happen, it's a high volatility warning, which is something that I always look on trades. So pretty much we don't have many confirmations yet, but this is a trade you might wanna watch since we have so many favors on our side and I'm posting this with enough time for you to draw your strategy! We didn't have any Spectro™ M confirmations yet, but still, this is an asset that you might want to watch closely since Spectro™ M just triggered a high volatility zone alert(orange background) so that's something I'm keeping my eyes on Liked it? Give it a shot at, it's really affordable - you wouldn't believe if I told you: hypester.org
Short
by spectertrading
13
Trading Pumps in a Sideways MarketWe've been trending sideways a lot lately. We mostly have pumps and long consolidations, not a proper trend. So, here are some tips on how you can trade and survive in this market. There are 2 basic ways of trading sideways trends. I'm using the M15 chart to illustrate. 1) Treat everything as a range. Trade breakouts from the range. Place Buy Stop orders above the new highs and Sell stop orders below the new lows and wait for the price to come to you and trigger one of your orders instead of going long/short inside the range to chase the price in either direction. Take profit immediately after the move ends. This way: - you don't have to pay interest for open positions inside the range (sometimes sideways trend can last for days and just maintaining the position becomes more expensive than the potential reward) - you don't care much about direction and teases/fakeouts, you are ready to go either way when a breakout happens - you don't have to manage opened positions and worry about breaking even if market changes direction and goes against your positions On the chart: Green Arrows - Stop Buy Orders Red Arrows - Stop Sell Orders Green dots - a Buy Stop order is triggered, a long position opened, Lime dots - Exit point to take profit Red dots - a Sell Stop order is triggered, short position opened, Magenta dots - Exit point to take profit When price is above EMAs and going up: - look for long entry points, ignore shorts - place a Buy stop above each new high/top - place a Sell stop below 50% retracement of the entire swing or below EMA 100-200 or below key support level (such as 6000) When price is below EMAs and going down: - look for short entry points, ignore longs - place a Sell stop below each new low/bottom - place a Buy stop above 50% retracement of the entire swing or above EMA 100-200 or above key resistance level (such as 6000) The idea behind is that in a strong trend/after pump we usually have 23.6-38.2 corrections, rarely 50%. So, going past 50% after pump usually results in fading and reversal. EMA 200 roughly splits the bear/bull markets. When price is crossing the line far enough it usually means a reversal. EMA 100 is a sort of median line and price tends to come back to it (just like bollinger and pitchfork median lines) EMA 50 is a rough meandering path for the price Don't place orders within the range because the market can always change direction, sudden moves inside the range and traps (yellow spots) can trigger your orders and then go in the opposite direction. It's not perfect but it works. 2) Trade based on RSI overbought/oversold levels. RSI is very useful in ranges and during corrections and doesn't help much during trends, because it's an oscillator. - note prev extreme RSI levels, is it mostly oversold or overbought? - if RSI is mostly oversold (below 30) its curve may not reach the overbought 70 level, you need to adjust the RSI channel to 20-60, where 60 is the new overbought level. Go Long at oversold level 30 or below, Exit/Go Short early at RSI 60 or at the overbought 70 if reached. RSI below 60 is considered a bearish market. - if RSI is mostly overbought (above 70) its curve may not reach the oversold 30 level, you need to adjust the RSI channel to 40-80, where 40 is the new oversold level. Go Short at overbought level 80 or above, Exit/Go Long early at RSI 40 or at the oversold 30 if reached. RSI above 40 is considered a bullish market. - note that RSI does not include the wicks, only bodies (candle close price). Horiz movement cools off. RSI. Arrows on RSI show when to go long/short. Nested Red/Green Rectangles on the chart illustrate the MTF RSI oversold and ovebought concepts. When D1 and all other TFs are RSI oversold/overbought expect the strongest buy/sell reaction because of a colossal support/resistance due to price compression. 3) Don't trade, stay on the sidelines and wait for trend change confirmations Good Luck! This is not a financial advice. Use at your own risk!
by RagingRocketBull
5] How to use Traders Dynamic Index and Complementary OverlayCOMBINING MULTIPLE TUTORIALS Price/HighMBL crash, overbought TDI:RSIPL indication = MUST SELL with use of lower time frames. Trading a retracement (into HighMidline) is not really recommended, your'e not trading a reversal so its highly risky to countertrend trade against the main trend. Price under HighMidline, with 'TDI overbought indication = MUST SELL with proper setup. Use of Flat Bottom, disjoint angle, or parallel channel are very useful when used with the separated 'TDI Pro indicator window. 60 Min chart BEST SELL ENTRY ZONE corresponds to price nearest of 240 HighMidline and especially of 'TDI indication of overbought condition. In this time period preparation of best sell entry is crucial for evasion of being stopped out and best to enter by RSIPL above 68 as BEST SELL POINT. XtremePhaser trending down helps to determine the Take Profit area to look into (1] How to use Traders Dynamic Index and Complementary Overlay). As also was shown in the chart as target (2] How to use Traders Dynamic Index and Complementary Overlay). Midlines (Black & Gray lines) however are mainly for identifying the current trend as this published idea explains. Other 'TDI overlay component lines (MBLs, TSLs), and Phasers are only for reversal breakouts, if you know what I mean, and can be used to observe support/resistance.
Education
by YardleyRosette
New Bitcoin Wedge breakout, BTC target $9,700Wedge breakout, target price $9,700 Support zones at $9,100 and $9,200 Current situation we will see is a pullback and due to wedge breakout should rise to $9,700 but we can expect resistance from thin blue line 'HighPhaser', which is the MarketBaseLine overlay of the a third chart (60 min). So we can expect some ranging with dated high to supports stated or breakout out of the HighPhaser. _____ The use of 'TDI' Pro's Analytic Tool is meant not for blind trade entry, rather a technical guide of set rules which an expert on the use of Traders Dynamic Index can use it complementary as an alert of technical probability. His/her expertise on the use of Traders Dynamic Index would allow to stay in the trade for longer than when the tool says 'close trade'.The trader can use the signal 'close trade' as an entry if so expected by trader's complete analysis. Also it's programmed to say close rather than sell due to possible false sell signal on generic system trading script coding which now would increase capital most favorably.
Long
by YardleyRosette
TENTATIVE APPROACH OF PUBLIC TRADING MARKETSHi fellow traders, I started to trade forex 12 years ago. I looked at almost all possible literature (books) and Technical Analysis (Japanese candle sticks, indicators, Elliott Waves, etc.), traders' psychology, paid for expensive forex courses. They all failed me . 4 years! Not because these were wrong (or maybe but who am I to say so) but because they were of no help for me to trade. I was loosing money. On the chart, this is me 10 years ago applied to today's bitcoin chart Then I realized that trading is only managing risk. As a trader, my job is to manage risk. And it needs a set of few components that you need to have right: - Charts - and how to read them. - Understand cycles of the market (time frame, momentum) - A trading system (that provides entries based on the same approach over time. can be anything I reckon: MACD cross-over, candle stick patterns) So, I based my work on Elliott Waves Theory (Elliott was a genius) but I dropped his approach of market trending in 5 waves only and also his labeling but I kept his vocabulary. I used different time frames for direction, setup and execution that fits my personality. I do not read news or listen to rumors when I trade. This is noise to me that is here to justify price when I believe that price is all that matters (except if you are an insider trader with deep pockets... no further comment). I trade extensions in corrective sequence with Fibonacci levels. This year, I started The Trader's Corner and I am trading for a living. What is your approach to trading in general and cryptocurrency in particular?
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by The_202_Quants
2