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Gold Long - I think it's a FAKE break, You?For the past 8 day candles, the price closed with higher lows. But alas! the ninth candle which we are seeing right now breaks out from the streaks. Now, I wanna avoid the complicated stuff and just dive into 2 simple decisions: 1) The price is breaking below the range, the dollar is still climbing and so is the US stocks market. Imma gonna wait for a clean break, wait for a retracement, and go in for a short. 2) The price is breaking below the range, but heck! This could be a fake breakout just for institutional to go in for the long cheaper. Imma go for a long once the downside is settled. Oh, there's a third choice by the way: Heck this! I don't wanna get involved in this shet anymore. Imma OUT. For me, I choose (2). I am ready to take the risk here. The RRR is so attractive in this case so it is worth the bet. I strongly believe that the dollar and the US stock is way overbought, and the structure of the gold points clearly to the upside. As traders, we make our own decision systematically(trade what you see) and sensibly(manage risk and only take trades that's valuable).
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AlgoVenture
Create your own trading system: entry point # 3We continue to look for your entry points into the market. Let's look at another interesting pattern for finding the entry point to the market. Indicators: CCI with a period of 200, close, levels 50 and -50. Stochastic with parameters: 5, 3, 2. Timeframe: H1 Currency: EURUSD The essence of the idea: we will look for inputs after the pulse, which will show us the indicator CCI 200. To avoid a multitude of false signals, we will enter the market once after the impulse, at the end of the first price correction. Rules for entry into position: We buy if: The closing price of the asset crossed the level of 50 CCI 200 bottom-up (case 1); After that we wait for the end of the price correction after returning it below the zone 50 of the CCI 200 indicator (case 2). We enter the Buy at the intersection of the Stochastic indicator of the zone 20 from the bottom up (case 3). We sell if: The closing price of the asset crossed the -50 CCI 200 level from top to bottom (case 1); After that, we wait for the end of the price correction after returning it above the -50 zone of the CCI 200 indicator (case 2). We enter sales at the intersection of the Stochastic indicator of zone 80 from top to bottom (case 3). Exit position: The exit from a trade can be at a fixed profit, or at a given trailing stop value.
by RuslanKuchma
Create your own trading system: entry point # 2We continue to look for your entry points into the market. I bring to your attention a simple idea for trading on a microtrend change. Indicators: Simple moving average with a period of 144, close. Parabolic Sar with start parameters: 0.02, increment 0.02, maximum value 0.04 Timeframe: M15 Currency: EURUSD The essence of the idea: we are looking for entry into the transaction only after the price crosses the SMA 144. We will enter in the direction of the movement of a simple moving average, after changing the value of the Parabolic Sar indicator. We will take only one signal at the input, only the first signal of the Parabolic Sar. The remaining intersections of Parabolic Sar along the trend can also be taken too, but this is up to you. Rules for entry into position: We buy if: The closing price of the asset crossed the SMA 144 bottom-up (case 1); After that we wait for the up crossing of the Parabolic Sar indicator, and enter the purchase. Do not enter the purchase, if not the case 1. We Sell if: The closing price of the asset was crossed by SMA 144 from top to bottom (case 1); After that, we wait for the downward crossing of the Parabolic Sar indicator, and enter sales. Do not enter sales, if not the case 1. Exit position: Options out of the position set. The easiest way out in our case is the reverse intersection of the Parabolic Sar indicator. P.S. You can improve the results of this idea, if you choose the optimal values of the Parabolic Sar indicator.
by RuslanKuchma
BEST of #FXinsights "DIAMOND" TOP of YM1! 2018 CALL SHORT REPOSTREPOST from dec 1,2018 Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures $YM1! CURRENT SIGNAL "LONG" BUY from 24386 Current Targets 25602 25912 26268 26966 27506 28464 Based on the #cisGGproTRADER CandleStix Buy/Sell Colors EVERYTIME a Candle Closes Higher than the Open and Signals a Sell (Blue Color) Candle, this begins a ***New UpTrend*** Projection Signal MonthlyVIEW > #GreatGatsbyProTrader "DIAMOND" CandleStick Pattern Conditions: 3 Bar or 3 Months from Last Candle in Pattern or Month Initial Targets SHORT Target Low 23467 BreakoutTarget 21808 Key Progression Levels 25471 24917 24865 24246 23817 Orange Bars Signal 966 "Pressure Points" BEARISH Momentum Signal 335 Points BULLISH Initial Entry Conditions: Market showing short term bullish reversal signals in long term uptrend; however, Momentum Metrics suggest market must maintain strength greater than 624 + (up) points. Current Metrics suggest uptrend in short term to be less than 754 + (up) points with a Potential MarketDEPTH of 2880 indicating 2126 - (down) points . Also, Daily Chart and 1 hr Chart is currently at the Target High 25602. RISK: Based on the #cisGGproTRADER CandleStix Buy/Sell Colors EVERYTIME a Candle Closes Higher than the Open and Signals a Sell (Blue Color) Candle, this begins a ***New UpTrend*** ; however, GreatGatsbyProTrader DIAMOND REVERSAL conditions are present on the monthly chart and correspond inversely to $GBPCAD #GBPCAD GreatGatsbyProTrader DIAMOND Reversal Analysis provided below...!!! Methodology: 1. Use IntraDay Intermediate Term Sell Signals ---> "The Great Gatsby" Reversal Bars #cisGGproMETRICS ---> #cisGGMarketDEPTH & #cisGGproTRADER Buy/Sell Bar/Candle Signals 2. Use Daily "The Great Gatsby" Reversal Bars #cisGGproMETRICS 3. Use Daily #cisGGMarketDEPTH & #cisGGproTRADER Buy/Sell Bar/Candle Signals Short Term Analysis LONG with Lower Depth Target High 25602 BreakoutTarget 25912 PressureZone 26268 #cisGGMarketDEPTH Analysis Daily 631-687 Max Range & 181 Min Range 383 Average Market Depth 379 Real-Time Delta Depth #FXinsights from JoshuaCorum.com @ #cisTRADING SHORT YM1! Active Signals: Monthly "Diamond" Reversal SHORT DAILY CHART PIX> MONTHLY CHART PIX> Daily #GreatGatsbyProTrader CandleStix Pattern SHORT "Pin Stop" "Pin Drop" #PriceAction Daily Analysis "Pin Stop" "Pin Drop" Price Action SHORT to at or below 23894 Market Depth is increasing in a bearish direction above the avg 495 at 570 with peak Depth at 885 showing that next trading session has the potential of trading at a great depth or range of 570+ points with sentiment SHORT / SELL side Price Action Metrics Analysis All signals are bearish following the "Inside Bar" break last week and current "Pin Stop" "Pin Drop" Pattern Metrics suggest a lower low and potential divergence trading lower than 23894 and above 23381... So, expecting trading below 23381 over the next few trading sessions Monthly Analysis Market Depth is above the Avg 2115 points Market Depth Peak Target = 3192 Signal = SHORT / SELL Stopped at Low Target 23894 Breakout Low Target is 21906 Trend Curve Level HIGH POTENTIAL is 24688 Price Action Metrics Analysis HOT BARS BEARISH PRESSURE trading below 595 + High of ~ 26000 = 26595 SHOW BULLISH POTENTIAL +470 points Higher which signals trading below 24945 is BEARISH *** Technical Notes *** Price Action Metrics signal a lower low while current price and current low are higher than previous low... Similar to divergence this signals that healthy price action should be trading at a lower low TradingView TOOLKIT #TradingViewTOOLKIT Indicator Solutions from #cisTRADING JoshuaCorum.com TradingViewTOOLKIT
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by cisTRADING
Create your own trading system: entry point number 1We start looking for your entry points into the market. To do this, try different points of entry into the market and leave only those that you understand. I propose to consider the point of entry into the market on the indicator Bollinger band. We will not study its meaning and calculation formula, because you can find this information yourself on the Internet. Select timeframe and indicator parameter To work with the Bollinger band indicator, you need to choose the right parameter. A value of 100 with a deviation of 2 is suitable for timeframes below H4, and a value of 50 for D1 and higher. Rules for entry into position: We buy if: The closing price of the asset was below the lower Bollinger band (case 1); After that, the asset's closing price crossed the middle Bollinger band from bottom to top (case 2); Open a position to buy an asset after the second intersection of the middle Bollinger band from the bottom up. Do not enter the purchase, if there were no cases 1 and 2. We Sell if: The closing price of the asset was above the upper Bollinger band (case 1); After that, the closing price of the asset crossed from the middle Bollinger band from top to bottom (case 2); We open the position to sell the asset after the second intersection of the middle Bollinger band from top to bottom. Do not go on sale if there were no cases 1 and 2. The main regularity of this entry point is to enter the trade after a strong impulse on the new wave. In its pure form, this entry point does not apply to trade, as additional filters are needed. But, it is needed as a simple and probable way to enter the market. Exit position: A probable exit from positions is possible at the intersection of the closing price of an asset of the upper / lower Bollinger bands.
by RuslanKuchma
Create your own trading systemA trading system is a set of trading strategies for different phases of the market, or one strategy with a complex way to support transactions. Trading strategy is a trader action plan. The structure of the trading system: 1. The choice of a currency pair for work, or several currency pairs. 2. The choice of timeframe for trading, or several. 3. Trading time. 4. Actions to prepare for trade: carrying out technical analysis, viewing the economic calendar and studying important news, viewing the opinions of expert analysts, compiling a trader's journal. 5. Rules for opening positions: the presence of the main signal at the entrance, the search for confirmation signals, an additional signal (if necessary). 6. Rules for the management of capital and risk. 7. Rules of exit from the position: one or more signals to exit. 8. Analysis of transactions: search for errors, deviations from the selected plan, entry in the trader’s journal. To become a system trader you need to solve a few questions for yourself: 1. What will I earn money on? What financial instrument do I understand: EURUSD or GBPUSD? Will I trade in gold or oil? Will I choose one or more currency pairs? 2. What timeframe will I look at for analysis? If I am a scalper, then M1, M5, M15. If I am a position trader, then D1 and H1. If I am a long-term trader, then - 1M, 1W, D1. 3. What time is convenient for me to work in the foreign exchange market? Will I be sitting in both sessions: American and European, or is it better to trade in the Asian session? 4. What will I look at before trading? What do I need to prepare for trading? Will I watch the news, read the opinions of other traders, view the economic calendar? Will I make a daily trading plan with a forecast of the course of the selected currency pairs? Will I write everything in the trader's journal? 5. What is the main idea (pattern) I trade? Do I have a main input signal? How many signals do I need to enter the market? 6. How much volume do I enter the market? What leverage can I afford? Will I place a stop-loss order? What will I do if my daily trading plan is wrong? 7. What is my signal to exit a position? Will I use partial order closure? Will I trawl my position? 8. Am I a disciplined trader? Do I analyze my mistakes? Do I keep a trader's journal? To answer all these questions and create your own trading system, you need to try different options, and finally decide what is right for you personally. In my next training posts I will try to give you the answers to the questions above so that you can find yourself in the Forex market. Create your own successful trading system!
Education
by RuslanKuchma
2
Comprehensive Trading Strategy - ConsensioDisclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Identify Time Horizon First and most important is identifying the time frame that you want to trade. I primarily trade the daily chart using Tyler Jenks’ Consensio. It was designed to capture long term trends. If followed it will ensure that you do not miss out on a trend and it will also get you out before it fully reverses. “We want 90% of the cookie” -Tyler Jenks There will be times when we cost ourselves a small amount of opportunity but that will be peanuts in comparison to the larger trends that will be captured. Even though it was designed for higher time frames (TFs), specifically the weekly, it can still be used on smaller TFs based on your understanding and time availability. Decisions need to be made each time a candle closes, therefore you need to be available, or out of all positions, every time that happens. I trade the daily chart because I know that I will be available every day for the candle close. I also like to trade the stock market, commodities, and FOREX as well as crypto because the daily closes are staggered throughout the afternoon and it gives me time to manage my positions. If you prefer to day trade then this strategy can be used for the 1m - 1h candles. However it doesn’t seem to be too conducive to anything above 1h, if trading 24/7 markets. For example: if trading the 4h then will not have enough time for position to develop before going to bed. Regardless of what TF you select you can zoom out to determine longer term trends, however you should only use one TF for making decisions. For example: I trade the daily chart and will zoom out to the weekly when I am looking for major reversals. However, if the price is signaling entries on the weekly then that is irrelevant because I make decisions based on the daily chart. Identify Trend “The purest form of Consensio is three Moving Averages without the price” -Tyler Jenks Once you know what time frame you are going to trade then you need a reliable way to identify the trend. I have found Consensio to be the single most powerful tool for recognizing trends (as well as signaling entries, exits and reversals). It is a system that seems very simple on the surface and potentially even unoriginal. However the deeper you dig the more you will uncover. To start you need to go to the source directly: Consensio - A New Trading System Deep Dive Into Consensio The notes that I have on it span well over 100 pages and I couldn’t possibly sum that all up in this post. Nevertheless I will attempt to cover the most important parts of the puzzle. Important: Watch the videos above or else below will not make sense. I have four subcategories for trending markets that are somewhat similar to Elliott Waves. 1) Short, medium and long term trend all in alignment. For bull trend: price > Short MA > Medium MA > Long MA (Strong trend) 2) Minor Correction (Small pullback moves against overall trend) 3) Major Correction (ABC type of correction that forms lower high but finds support at major boundary levels - Long MA, horizontal or trend line) 4) Potential Reversal (Price closes below long term MA and starts turning it over) The moving averages should be dialed in to your specific time frame to help identify each subcategory above. When the asset is in a strong trend you want to see the Short Term MA act as support / resistance. A close above / below the Short Term MA indicates a minor correction. When there is a minor correction you want the Medium Term MA to act as support / resistance. A close above / below the Medium Term MA indicates a major correction taking place. When there is a major correction that doesn’t quite reverse the trend then you want the Long Term MA to act as support / resistance. A close above or below the Long Term MA indicates a potential reversal. If in a strong trend then expect price to quickly react from the Long Term MA and continue the trend. For example: in a bull market the long term MA should act as strong support / provide a strong bounce. If it doesn't and the price closes below it instead then that is an indication that the bull market is getting exhausted. When the Long Term MA starts to show signs of a reversal then I will add a Longer Term MA (default is 200) and / or I will zoom out to the weekly chart. This really helps me to understand if it is just a major correction within a market that is still trending or if a full on reversal is to be expected. Being able to distinguish major corrections from reversals is the hardest part about consistently beating the market in the long run. Once you are comfortable with that then it mainly comes down to patience, discipline and diligence in regards to acting on signals and managing risk. Entry & Exit Signals 5% when Price crosses Short Term MA (default is 4) 10% when Price crosses Medium Term MA (default is 9) 15% when Short Term MA crosses Medium Term MA 20% when Medium Term MA turns over (if it was trending down, then watch for it to turn up) 25% Price cross Long Term MA & Long Term MA flattens / turns over 25% Golden Cross with the Medium Term MA & Long Term MA If multiple happens at once then sum the %’s. For Example: P close < S & M MA then enter 15% . If I am not in position then price crossing MA’s would trigger entries. If I am in a position then it would trigger exits. In rare cases I will flip my position by exiting a short and immediately entering a long, or vice-versa. Entries and exits are done as soon as possible after the candle closes. I trade the daily chart so I will wait for the daily candle to close before making decisions and then I will try to make sure I get filled within 30 minutes (will take a market order if necessary). If you try to front run the candle close then you will make more mistakes than it is worth. It is very important to only make decisions after the candle closes. Everything else is noise and you cannot make decisions based on noise. I may pass on signals if it would enter me against a longer term trend. For Example: Price closes above Short Term and Medium Term MA’s and they cross over in a bullish manner. 30% - 50% long entry signaled. May choose to pass if Long Term MA is bearish. I can completely pass on this entry in favor of waiting for a short if the price is below the Long Term MA and the Long Term MA is in a strong bear trend. In this case I will expect Long Term MA to act as strong resistance and will wait for price to close back below shorter term MA’s to trigger a short entry. It takes time to reverse a trend. In the above example the Long Term MA is in a strong bear trend while price appears to be rallying through it after 50% long entry is signaled. I would pass on long entries and be very confident that the price isn’t going to blow right through my Long Term MA (due to the downward angle). It very well might reverse the trend, however that will take time. If the price is above a Long Term MA that is angled down then the MA will act as a magnet for the price until it flattens / turns over. Passing on the first long entries that are signaled does not mean that I will pass up on it all together, it just means that I think it is too early / risky. I would strongly prefer to wait for a golden cross with the Long Term MA flattened, or angled up, to go ahead and fully enter. In the example above I would wait for a pullback to the Long Term MA. If it supports above and gets a golden cross with the Medium Term MA then I would be much more inclined to take that entry. It is very important to understand the difference between opportunity cost vs capitalizing on a loss. As traders we need to be completely comfortable with missing out on opportunity and extremely diligent about avoiding / minimizing losses. Therefore it is okay to pass on possible entries that are less than ideal however it is not okay to pass up on exits that feel similar. Stop Losses & Risk Management I determine my position size and leverage based on the amount of risk that I would be assuming. If an entry is triggered then I will use the Parabolic SAR or the Bill Williams Fractal to determine my risk. If SAR is too tight then I will use the Fractal. I use the medium and long term MA’s to determine what is or is not too tight. Prefer stop to be above long term MA but has to be above medium MA. I am trading Consensio, and it does not allow for stop losses in this manner. Instead it demands that you hold onto a position through the candle close and that you scale out in pieces (see above 'Entries & Exits'). This is best in 99%+ of the time. However that really limits the leverage that can be used. If trading the daily chart 3X - 5X would be the absolute max. I tend to prefer 5X - 10X leverage for a number of reasons: -Minimizes exchange risk -Can minimize slippage -Still gives me plenty of flexibility to place stop above prior Fractal / SAR Below shows an example entry triggered and my thought process for where to place the stop along with a risk / leverage calculation. Once I understand the risk, then I can calculate the position size. You should always think of risk as the amount you stand to lose opposed to exposure amount. I do not care about the exposure amount. I care about how much I stand to lose... how much I am risking. I care about controlling my downside and limiting it to less than 2% of my trading capital. In the above example the risk is 7.10% and the max leverage is 14.08%. I never use the max leverage because getting liquidating comes with significantly higher fees. In this case I would use 10X or less leverage and I would make sure to set a market stop loss below the liquidation price. If you get liquidated then it will likely be a ~22% fee. If you take a market stop before the liquidation triggers then it will be a ~2% fee. I currently like to cap my risk at $500 per trade. $500 (USD I wish to risk) / 0.071 (calculated risk based on wick above Fractal) = $7,042 (exposure) $7,042 is my maximum exposure. With 10X leverage $704.20 is the most I will need for margin. Once I understand my position size, leverage and margin requirements then the position size can be easily calculated based on the Entry & Exit Signals above. Trailing Stop Losses I consider myself 100% entered when I have $500 at risk. If the price moves in my favor then I will trail the stop loss. If I trail it to the point where it is at break even, or better, then I will not consider myself fully entered anymore. Even though I still have the full original exposure, I am no longer assuming any risk and the latter is all that matters to me. Therefore I would feel comfortable adding to my exposure up until the point where I am risking another $500. In the example above we get a great entry before a strong trend starts (also happened to follow descending triangle breakdown which provided great confirmation). The price quickly moves in our favor to the point where the stop is adjusted to break even, or very close to it. With no risk I do not consider myself to be fully exposed anymore and I feel comfortable adding to my position up to an amount that would risk $500. Need to be very careful with this because adding to a profitable position after a big move can completely ruin your trade. I will use the TD’ Sequential , RSI and Average Directional Index to confirm that the trend still has room to go. I will also check horizontals and trends to make sure I’m not selling support / buying resistance. In the example above I would really like adding because all of the above are in my favor. This can be thought of as manual unbalancing which is the opposite of how most people approach allocating capital. Automatic rebalancing will sell the most profitable positions and add to the lesser profitable positions in order to keep the same allocation percentages. For example: if allocations are 50% Apple and 50% Amazon then Amazon outperforms. It will be something like 45% Apple and 55% Amazon. Rebalancing would sell Amazon and buy Apple so that it is 50:50 again. I have always thought that is completely backwards. I want to allocate my capital to the best performing assets. If I am in a position that is really moving in my favor then I am thinking about adding to it. I would never take away from a more profitable position to add to a lesser profitable one just for the sake of balancing my portfolio. Conclusion What is outlined above is enough to ensure that you do not miss out on a trend and it also ensures that you will get out before it fully reverses. Don’t take me word for it, go do some backtesting yourself. That is when the power of Consensio will really come to life. When trying out a new strategy I always recommend to start with an extremely small amount of money that is > $0 and I also recommend zooming in. I think that it is very important to have some skin in the game so that you feel the pain and pleasure of losing and winning. However I think that is should be very nominal. If you have a $10,000 trading roll then I would take $100 and trade the 3m chart. Focus on learning the intricacies and making sound decisions. Also focus on ROI and how long it takes to generate 10%, 50% or 100%+ returns opposed the dollar amount being returned. Regardless of what time frame you decide to trade I would always start with a very small TF. The reason is that the daily / weekly charts could take years to teach what the 3m and 5m charts can teach in days. The decision making process should be exactly the same regardless of the TF. There are a ton of variables and intricate situations that you can put yourself into by trading small TF’s. Thinking your way through these situations is how you internalize and gain confidence in the trading system as well as the decision making process. Facing these situations before you have significant money on the line is what I consider batting practice. “We don't rise to the level of our expectations, we fall to the level of our training.” -Archilochos After a couple weeks of trading the shorter TF’s I felt comfortable putting significant money to work on the Daily chart. However, I consider myself a fast learner and that process could take longer for others.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Sawcruhteez
16