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TEST: Is Trading for you? Trading is NOT for everyone. Not because they can’t do it, or because it’s hard – but rather… Trading is something that only a few will feel passionate to do for the rest of their lives… I say this because there are many things that I could do well in, make a huge income from, but I unfortunately don’t enjoy. For example, Poker, horse-racing and sports bets, real-estate, portfolio manager, business consultant… Don’t feel ashamed nor feel something is wrong with you. Instead, embrace your personality and work towards what is your OWN calling and passion. In this TradingView article, well find out if trading is for you… Out of 15 things I’ll mention today, write down YES or NO for each one… Let’s go… YES or NO? Are you a good decision maker? Are you proud to be called a financial trader? Do you enjoy looking at charts and indicators? Can you handle a bunch of losing trades in a row? Do you have the will-power to trade every week? Do you enjoy reading fundamentals with markets? Can you handle losses on a weekly / monthly basis? Do you enjoy learning more about local and global markets? Is it in your personality to deal with short term market moves? Do you have the ability to NOT listen to other people and the news? Do you have the patience to wait for the market to hit your trading levels? Can you follow strict criteria without steering away from your proven strategy? Do you enjoy looking up statistics and probabilities with portfolio management? Are you able to deposit a portion of your savings into your portfolio each month? Do you have the discipline to follow and improve one trading strategy in your life? If you counted less than 10, the big question is… Do you think you can train and educate yourself to fix those items and turn them into yes’s?
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Don't be a still trader!“Timon, I’ve been following your trading tips for the last 12 years and I STILL haven’t taken my first trade." But I will soon trade... Soon? Like tomorrow? Next week or in the next 12 years? Procrastination is the thief of time. I hate clichés but I love that saying. #1: STILL not ready for losses I think most people don’t want to take losses. They are seen as small failures or small fractures to a person’s pride and bank account. Whether you’re running a business, a household or a trading portfolio – there are going to be oopsies. So how do we deal with the idea of taking losses? Well, don’t think of them as losses. Think about them as costs… When you run a business you have to pay costs – equipment, stock, admin, salaries, legalities etc… When you run a household you have to pay costs – electricity, water, take the trash out, taxes and repairs. When you run your trading account you have to pay costs – Losing trades and drawdowns… You pay costs with everything in life, and so it shouldn’t be any different with trading… Instead of calling them losses – call them ‘costs of trading’. Helpful? #2: STILL no right system This one is common. You don’t know what the right system is for you. You’ve tried a couple of moving averages, indicators, price action even volume. Nothing seems to work for you yet… I don’t have a correct answer for you, but I can tell you with how I found my system. I wanted something that didn’t require too much thinking, little indicators, worked on all time frames, was easy to back and forward test and is timeless. And it took me years until I finally found a system that you see here in TradingView. So ask yourself exactly what you want in a system and drill down each detail that matches your current lifestyle and times… Just maybe, the answer will stand out for you better. #3: STILL Not making money Now this is ambiguous. If you end up positive for the year, you’re making money. If you’re not happy with how much money you’re up for the year, that’s different. It’s all relative. Step one is to make sure your portfolio is positive by the end of the year. Then it’s a numbers game as to what your portfolio should be to make more of an income. But first make sure you’re in the positive before you play with Mr Market. #4: STILL Making excuses The only thing I can add to this is the wonderful comfort zone of doing nothing. It’s safe, it’s consistent and we’re used to it. But if you are constantly thinking of wanting to trade and build your wealth on a regular basis – it tells me you’re ready but not ready to leave your comfort zone. You got to pull up your socks and just START. The hardest step to trading is taking your first step. I hope these tips will help you shake off the STILLness that’s lurking inside you, so you can achieve greatness.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
1
Why is trading NOT working for me?!Even with the right markets, time frames, systems, rules and ideas… Trading is just not playing out you the way you thought it would. It’s not growing your portfolio at the rate you wished… It’s taking forever to get right… It’s overwhelming and you don’t know which strategy to choose… From my experience this is because of one reason. You’re not treating trading for what it is… Let’s REMIND you… TRADING IS… A fun hobby Trading isn’t a tiring job where you need to sit for hours countlessly looking at a screen. It’s also not a job where you need to be cramped up in a cold room, sitting on an uncomfortable chair, wearing a suffocating ‘noose’ I mean tie, around your neck while you’re waiting for the next pay-cheque. If that was the case, I would have stopped trading 19 years ago. Trading should be treated as a fun hobby. With this hobby… You don’t need a lot of time (half an hour a week will do just fine). You don’t need a lot of effort. (Just a few click of the buttons and a few simple grade-8 maths calculations). You don’t need to worry and stress yourself out. (Opportunities come every day, you can manage your own risk and no one is watching over your shoulder.) In other words this is one opportunity which will give you: More free time, Less work and a hobby that will consistently pay you. TRADING IS… A patience game When you’re enjoying a hobby, you look forward to doing it the next day. It’s like anything you enjoy… Watching TV, playing sports, eating your favourite snacks or even having sex… You’ll adapt, incorporate and most importantly look forward to the next time you do it. And the more you do it, the more you’ll improve, the better you’ll get and the easier it will become. Trading is a patience game. The longer you spend the time and days working on it and improving, the faster, better, and more powerful of a trader you will become. And this will lead to one outcome – Financial Independence. TRADING IS… Ever evolving This isn’t your run on the mill, rat-race kind of hobby. This is one heck of an interesting, exciting and thrilling activity that changes so quickly. Every day, week, month and year you’ll to learn a ton of trading tips and lessons. That’s because the markets are always, changing, evolving, adapting and are even suprising… They evolve with: Ever-changing market conditions. New financial markets added to the exchanges. New created instruments to incorporate i.e. Crypto- currencies, ETFs, CFDs etc… New mega-trends driving new global demand i.e. AI, Machine learning, Electric cars, Cannabis, NFTs, Smart contracts and Extended Mixed Reality. TRADING IS… A lonely journey This is one hobby, where YOUR success entirely depends on YOU. This won’t work if you’re asking your family, friends, dogs and even strangers for their opinions on what to buy and sell. This won’t work if you’re listening to the random billionaire analyst on Bloomberg talking about what they have in their portfolios. This won’t work if you’re scrolling on Facebook for an individual’s trading prediction. (INCLUDING MINE). No! With your system, your money and your time – You need to trade alone and on your own terms… You know what will make you money? Taking more trades according to YOUR criteria. Listening to YOUR rules according to YOUR strategy. Spending more of YOUR time, improving on executing trades well. Notice the word YOUR… Not others, not him, not her – YOU… So take trading for what it is and enjoy the process. TRADING IS… A fun hobby TRADING IS… A patience game TRADING IS… Ever evolving TRADING IS… A lonely journey
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
1
Don't let Captain Hindsight mess with your tradingCaptain Hindsight is bound to get in your head. Whether you’re just starting out or you’ve been trading for the last 10 years or so. He is going to question you with two simple words. And these two words, can really cause a negative impact on your trading portfolio. In this short article, I’m going to warn you about how he’s going to uppercut your mind and most likely cause havoc with your trading. This way, you’ll know what to watch out for. A dangerous two word question to interfere with your trading What if?” Here are some… “What if the market is in a bubble and I buy too high?” “What if I’m wrong about this trade?” “What if my trading strategy worked then, but won’t work now?” “What if the market is in a period where I’m just going to take losses?” Whenever the captain whispers these questions, you’re going to feel vulnerable and start second guessing your trading system, strategy and skills. Succumb to the Captain and he’ll be back stronger and more powerful than the last time. Here are THREE ways to beat Captain Hindsight before he returns ACTION #1: Extend your back-testing So you have a trading system that you believe works… Prove it. Go back and re-test different markets and jot down every time the system lined up. Record every trade, including the costs and the statistics and prepare yourself for what is to come. The more you back-test your system, the more markets and environments it would have weathered and endured. If it came out with all time highs on your portfolio, it’s a winner. Captain Hindsight – won’t have anything on you – with a decent track record… ACTION #2: Drop your risk The most common way for a trader to feel emotional, is when they have a lot to lose. The larger your trading position, the more desire to win and the more fear you’ll have to lose. This is why greed, fear and panic are the most ongoing reasons for traders to annihilate their portfolios. Trading is a get rich slowly but surely game. And when you accept the gains and losses, you won’t care what the Captain has to say. ACTION #3: Step away from the screen Not only will Captain Hindsight creep in before you take a trade. He’s bound to enter your mind while you’re in the trade. “What if you’re wrong about this one?” “What if you get out of your trade now while you’re in a profit?” “What if you take a small loss, because it looks like this trade is a loser?” The best action to take, when you’ve entered your trade with your trading levels (Entry, Stop loss and Take profit), is step away from your trading account. Distract yourself by getting a drink, water your garden, take a drive or do other work. The less you’re glued to the screen watching your trades, the less you’re going to feel worried about the small moves that happen in the day. Always remind yourself… “My trading strategy will REWARD me for following it. My trading strategy will PUNISH me for NOT following it.” These three actions will eventually help you beat Captain Hindsight for good, as it did for me over 20 years ago.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
25 Metrics to a Perfect Trading Journal First let’s begin with… What is a trading journal? This is a log book where you plot every trade you make with the metrics to show how your portfolio is performing and will continue to do so. I’m going to briefly list the items you’ll need to track your trading performance. 25 Items to plot in your trading journal… The trade No. The market traded (stock, index, crypto…) The entry date for your trade The exit date for your trade No. of days held Current portfolio value Max risk per trade (currency) Max risk % per trade Initial margin per instrument (CFD Spread betting) No. Volume traded The reason for entry Total margin paid Type of trade (Long / Short) Entry price Take profit price Stop loss price Closing price Risk in trade (Entry – Stop loss) Move in trade (close) Interest costs Brokerage costs Gearing Trade exposure (In and Out) Gross P+L Net P+L Don’t waste your time with calculations. Make sure you have the journal and log book with all formulas in each item. … When you record these details, you’ll be able to keep up to date with whether your portfolio is profitable and sustainable for the long run and where it’s lacking. Hope that helps!
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
What is Holding You Back Trader?So you want to trade, but just not taking action. You’re on the computer and so close to taking a trade or opening an account with a broker. The button is right there. And yet, it feels like there’s a wall between your finger and the button. I get it. It’s a big step to take when you know you’re entering into uncharted financial waters. You know risk is involved… You know time is needed. And you know education is crucial. And yet you’re still hesitant. In this article, we’ll pinpoint what is holding you back from creating your financial freedom as a trader. REASON #1: You’re talking more than doing This is a big one. Maybe you’ve been reading trading and investing articles for years now. And yet, you keep finding excuses to not take action. 1. “I’ll start next month” 2. “I’ll wait for the market to correct before I trade” 3. “I’m stressed with work and family” Listen… Life is going to continue with new problems, stresses and issues. And this will extend your delays and increase the number of excuses you’ll make with any new hobby. You just need to start doing, and the rest will take care of itself. And you’ll find you’ll feel more accomplished and proud of the fact, you took action. REASON #2: You’re concerned of the short term Every trader I know wants their first trade and month to be profitable. I was the same. In 2003, I bought a bunch of Anglo Gold shares. I felt so much panic because I wanted it to be a winner. I didn’t think of the long term effects. Let me tell you, I don’t even remember my first winner. I’ve taken thousands of trades and I’ll tell you, the first trade is over looked and felt. When you have a proven trading strategy, you lose interest in what a few trades will do for your portfolio. You keep your eye on the long term rewards. REASON #3: You are scared of losing This is one humble game, where the market takes a little and gives back to you and then some. It’s all down to one simple method – Risk and reward. You’re in a calculations game now, where you need to lose in order to win. Embrace the losses and own them as you would with any business costs or overheads. REASON 4#: You’re waiting for the right time What does that mean? Are you waiting for enough money? You never start with a lot of money as a trader. You test, you learn and you gain experience. I guarantee you blow more money on a holiday, on petrol and at restaurants than the amount you’ll lose as a start up and humble trader. Are you waiting for the right time? There are thousands of markets that are either in uptrend, downtrends or sideways trends everyday. There is never the right time to get into trading. Why? Because it’s always the right time. REASON 5#: You’re too busy to start I’m sure this article has helped open your eyes to a new spectrum of reasons why you’re holding back. Stop talking, start doing. You do have enough money to start trading. You have more than enough time You need to lose, to win. Nobody is ever too busy to not pursue their dreams and create their freedom. Got it? So stop holding back and listening to some imaginary voice inside your head
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Why You Need Humble Pie as a TraderHere's why you need to be a humble trader. REASON #1: Humility is required for losing I’ve mentioned this for the last 20 years. And nothing has changed. We are NOT in the trading game to be right. We are in this process, to follow a proven and winning strategy in order to grow our trading accounts over time. Not in a week, not in a month and not even in a quarter. It is our job to take the trades, bank the medium sized gains and take the small losses along the way. There should be no ego with expecting a trade or a sequence of trades to be right. If you want to be right, go become a lawyer, accountant, swimmer or find another hobby. REASON #2: Humility betters your trading strategy process It can also be tempting to try to change the system. This is where you act on impulse, bank a premature winner or cut a loss quickly. This does nothing to your strategy except turn it into a discretionary, non-tested and a temporary winner in the short term. But in the long run, when the markets rectify and become more favourable your winning, your strategy will stop working. Instead, rather focus on your system, improve on your entries, look for conducive markets and master execution. Your portfolio’s results will then take care of itself. REASON #3: Humility is not trying to avoid drawdowns You need to be humble enough to believe your carefully proven strategy ‘knows’ better than your short-term ‘wise-guy’ ideas. It’s not your job to avoid drawdowns (sequence of losses). It is your job to manage your drawdowns with structured and consistent methods. I have three strategies with drawdowns: 1. Trade your Equity Curve (portfolio) to know when to pause trading 2. Drop the level of risk per trade 3. Look for only high probability trades on other markets REASON 4#: Humility highlights your weaknesses You have to be honest as a trader. You can’t keep thinking you’re best at every aspect of trading. Break down the processes including (Markets allocation, Methods and systems, Money and risk management and Mind and psychology). Then ask yourself… Where am I weak with trading and why? Dig into your personality, traits and preferences. Become vulnerable so you can see the truth where you may be lacking in your success. Here are some thoughts: Do you convince yourself your trades are going to be winners? Do you look for confirmation signals that you don’t need to worry, when your trades move against you? Are you scared your ego will be hurt from taking losses? Are you only looking at a few markets because you’re scared to branch into international markets? Are you feeling old to the point you don’t have time to make slow money as a trader? Find your vulnerabilities, then look for solutions or research on how to improve them. Treat the market with respect and you’ll find the answers you need to win. Final words: Trading is not a race – work on your own time line. Trading might sound like an easy hobby, and it is. But you first need to overcome your demons in order to streamline the process. I tell you this because… You need to be humble as a trader, or the markets will humble you!
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
1
1 Sentence that will RUIN you as a traderWhat if I told you, it can take one sentence to blow it as a trader. Say it once and you’ll set a ripple effect. Before you know it, you’ve given up and leave the trading journey with pure frustration… Wanna know what this one sentence is? “I’ll take the next trade”. Yep that’s it! When you have a winning trading strategy, with strict entry, risk and exit levels – you are no longer the boss. You are a worker. And your job is to follow your job description or risk losing your job. Think about it… The system works with or without you. And if you follow it, you’ll generate a stable and consistent income. So, it is not your place to decide which trades you feel you want to take or not. Think about your back and forward tested statistics. Do you think there’s a robot that says… “Mmm let’s skip that trade my feelings tell me it’ll be wrong.” No, it records each and every trade one the criteria lines up. Here are some ridiculous examples of where traders don’t take trades. “It’s my birthday and I don’t want to lose money”. “I have banked 5 winning trades and I feel the next trade will be a loser’. “I’m on a losing streak and I don’t feel like taking another loser”. “Oooh I’m not going to take a trade, Elon Musk just tweeted ‘stock trading is over rated'”. And I can go on and on… So why will that one sentence ruin you as a trader? Here it is again: “I’ll take the next trade”. Reason #1: You’ll keep looking for the perfect trade Not only will you choose the trades you take, but you’ll also lose the confidence in the trading system and yourself whenever the next trade lines up. Reason #2: You’ll do it again and again You’ll set a precedent for not following your trading setups in the future. Reason #3: You won’t be able to keep a strong track record You won’t be able to jot down your trades with accuracy in your trading journal. Reason #4: Your emotions will get the better of you You’ll start thinking that you know better and refuse to accept the inevitable losses that come with trading. Remember, nothing in life that is rewarding comes without some degree of risk. By taking every trade your strategy yields, you’ll get to the point where you’ll enter into a long-term state of certainty and confidence with your trading.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
1
10,000 Hours to Master Trading?Welcome to another Trading Myth Buster’s episode. This is where I take the old adages and see if we can bust them or not. Today’s adage goes to… “You need 10,000 hours to master something”. Let’s first break this up into how many days this will take. If you practise an art of something for 30 minutes a day… 10,000 hours equates to 300,000 minutes. We then divide that by 30 minutes and of course we get 10,000 days. Divide that by 365, and here’s how long it will take you to master something… Drum roll… 27 years! However, most professionals practise 8 to 10 hours a day – hence them being able to master the art in a short time. This is definitely plausible if you want to be a professional ballet dancer, golfer, cricketer, rugby player and even a chess champion. But no ways in hell, should it take that long to learn how to trade. I am just the exception but it’s because of what was available when I started… So please bear with me, on this side note… In 2003, when I started, it took me 10s of thousands of hours and years and years, to learn how to be a successful trader. This is because of a number of reasons: I spent two years studying both technical and fundamental analysis Each year I learnt and adapted a new trading strategy I back-tested and forward tested countless systems I had no one to show me the way I made unnecessary and timely mistakes Charting platforms and education were extremely limited I traded from morning up until 4am trading different markets I went back to the drawing board trying to find what works, year in and year out I entered into limbo mode for three years living in doubt and thinking trading was a scam So as you can see, I wasted thousands of hours of finding out HOW NOT TO TRADE… Made countless mistakes and wasted a ton of money – without having someone to direct me. But I pushed through it all and eventually found my feet one day. And so, yes it took me a lot longer than what it should have. So how many hours do you need to learn HOW TO TRADE? If a trader follows a path of a successful trader and method, it should not take more than 10 months to get their feet off the ground. Here’s how I calculated this time for learning to trade: #: 1 Month – Learn the basics to advanced theory #: 1 Week – Adapt and learn a proven and trusted trading strategy #: 1 Week – Back-test and journal 20 trades with different markets #: 4 Months – Forward test 20 trades with the proven strategy using a demo-account #: 4 Months – Real test 20 trades using a proven trading strategy with a LIVE (real money) account Here’s how to follow the foot-steps of successful traders The above is how to master the art of trading on your own… But having said that, you’ll still most definitely need to learn the mechanics of: How to trade CFDs How to take a trade How to adapt money management rules How to develop the mind of a successful trader This is a subjective and introspection journey that you need to run your own marathon. Take your time, go with your own energy and day by day you'll get closer to achieving your trading goals. And the more you do it, the quicker and more effortless it will become.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
The correlation between US Interest Rates and The US Dollar (DXYInterest rates and USD strength are positively correlated. An increase in US interest rates will typically result in a strengthening of the USD. The reason is... Foreign investors tend to flock to US assets, such as bonds and fixed bank rates for higher returns. Higher demand for US assets drives up their price, and as a result, the USD strengthens. As for the relationship between USD strength and US stock market prices, it is more complex and can have both positive and negative effects. On one hand, a strong USD can make US exports less competitive, reducing demand and potentially leading to a decrease in corporate profits. This can weigh on stock prices. On the other hand, a strong USD can attract foreign investment into US stocks, driving up demand and prices. There are other reasons for the correlation such as: Interest rate differentials When interest rates in one country are higher than in another, capital tends to flow to the country with the higher interest rates. This results in an increase in demand for the currency of the country with higher interest rates, strengthening its currency i.e US Dollar. Inflation expectations Interest rates are also closely linked to inflation expectations. When interest rates rise, it is generally expected that inflation will rise too, which makes the currency more attractive to investors. Trade flows The USD is the currency used in most international trade transactions, and as a result, changes in trade flows can have a significant impact on the value of the USD.
Editors' picks
ECONOMICS:USINTREducation
by Timonrosso
6
How to be a LASER Trader!Rinse and repeat. That’s it… It’s one simple little acronym you’ll never forget… Ready? LASER your TRADES 1: Look The first thing you’ll need to do, is to go through your watchlist very quickly. A watch list is a list of markets you’ll LOOK through when finding trades. These markets can range from anything including shares, indices, commodities, currencies and crypto-currencies. When you have your watch list, you’ll go through the list and get a feel for how the markets have moved for the day. Example: Before I trade anything, I LOOK at the JSE All Share 40 stocks that are in my watch list. I then run through them briefly to see how the markets are performing. 2: Analyse The second round of going through your watch list, is where you’ll look for specific trading setups. Whether you trade using price action, patterns, indicators, volume etc… This is where you’ll ANALYSE the charts individually. Also with this step you’ll write down potential trades that are lining up. 3: Setup The third step is to go back to the markets that you’ve written down – which you’re looking to trade. You’ll then do your simple trading calculations and place your chart SETUPS so you can see where your trading levels are. EXAMPLE: If I see a trade that’s lined up, I’ll draw horizontal levels showing where my entry, Stop loss (risk) and take profit (reward) levels are… I like to use: Blue for entry Red for stop loss Green for take profit 4: Execute You’re ready to JUST TAKE THE TRADE! And then you’ll place your entry, stop loss and take profit levels. You’ll choose how many CFDs you’ll need to buy according to your money management rules. And then hit trade! 5: Record As soon as you’ve successfully taken the trade, head over to your journal (excel document) and record your trade transaction. That’s how to be a LASER Trader… And on a daily or weekly basis, you’ll repeat those steps…
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
How to Reduce Inflation in South Africa in 2023! - 5 WAYS!How to Reduce Inflation in South Africa in 2023! - 5 WAYS! I got this excellent question today from someone Which I thought was an important question to answer considering the state of the Country of South Africa. Hi everyone. In SA I always wonder how an ordinary person "employed or not" can contribute to bring positive change to our inflation? A. Here is my answer... As an economist, I can say in theory it is possible to bring positive change to the inflation rates but in reality – with corruption – I’m not sure it’s that easy. Also, it’s the butterfly effect where we need to come together as a community (country) to work towards lowering inflation. So on the one hand, there needs to be less spending unfortunately. Here are a few measures I can think of… #1. Lower non-essential spending. People need to stop spending unnecessarily on products and services and instead start saving more for their future. This will hamper and reduce the impact of inflation. #2: Support your local places! This world is becoming highly globalised not only where the rich get richer but the TOP stores and shops get richer too. As a community, we need to start supporting the local businesses that have great quality products and services to. We need to be more friendly to each other and help spread awareness to the small but great man. This will help stimulate the local economy and bring on more job creation and economic growth. #3: More investments in education Education is key to help bring personal development and skills training. We need to educate our fellow people on business skills, high income skills, programming, AI, machine learning, savings, risk averse investments and encourage more businesses to help grow. #4: Save more to invest more When inflation is high it means people were spending uncontrollably which pushed up demand and lowered supply. Instead, we should encourage more savings in stocks, property, trading, funds, and personal finances to reduce the effects of inflation. Instead of drinking sorrows away, spending on games to bide time – focus on less spending and more saving for the future – reducing the debt levels. #5: Invest in renewable energy Load Shedding is here to stay. And so we need to try to support more renewable energy initiatives that come about. Solar, wind and gas. This will definitely help reduce the cost of energy and curb inflation. As I said, we can only do our part and hope for the best. We are a nation with hope, optimism and trust. But instead of just trusting the government we should also learn to support and trust our local businesses and methods to living a better life. Hope that helps.
ECONOMICS:ZAIRYYEducation
by Timonrosso
5 Reasons why others trade VS why I tradeIn the last 20 years, I always love asking this one question. “Why do you want to trade?” Have you ever written down the reasons why you want to become a trader and what your true motivations are? When you answer this question, only then you’ll become more clear with the goals you wish to achieve and how to achieve them. Here’s one clichéd answer, I don’t want you to write down… “I want to make money”. This answer is lazy, impersonal and it tells you and me nothing about who you are truly, deeply and emotionally. If you think trading only teaches you one aspect of your life… I believe your eyes are still yet to be opened with the incredible possibilities that trading will bring you. And so, in this article I’m going to share a few reasons for why people want to trade. And then, I’ll share a few reasons why I trade… Here are 5 reasons why people want to trade… Reason #1: Diversification “I want to diverse my portfolio with different asset classes. This way I can produce a stream of income through long-term investing via stocks and property, short term trading with Premium MATI Trader and medium term investing through index ETFs.” Reason #2: Hobby “I have spare time and money. And what better way than to spend my time trading and making an extra income while doing something I love?” Reason #3: Monetizing my ‘down-time’ “I’ve earned the same income for the last seven years and now I want to earn an extra income during my off-hours too. For the first time in my life, trading has helped me make money while I’m watching Netflix and spending time with my wife”. Reason #4: Invest for my family and kids “Most people depend on portfolio managers and hedge funds to invest their money for their family. I’ve decided to trade the funds I have for my kids instead and take control of the growth of their inheritance through trading.” Reason #5: Keeps me sharp and well-informed “Trading might not be making me super rich yet, but I got to tell you this. It is keeping my brain sharp, well-informed and helps with my skills with decision making.” These are some of the reasons I’ve heard, which have stuck. Now I want to share with you five extra reasons why I trade… 5 Reasons why I trade! My reason #1: FREEDOM – Earn your own income when you want I want the freedom to trade and build an income stream on my own terms, times and conditions. My reason #2: Independence – Be your own boss Trading gives me the platform where I am responsible for my own trading results. This gives me full independence where I take pride with my own financial decisions. It gives me the place where I can grow my portfolio in a way that suits my personality and risk profile to a T. My reason #3: Extremely fun – New career Trading is not a job… This means, you don’t have to do it… But rather it’s an extremely productive and fun hobby to make your free time work for you. This hobby is not like sports or gym where your reward is more on the physical side. Trading is where you gain many different mental skills and bank a consistent income once you get it right. My reason #4: Mind control – Control your emotions Trading well means you have to lose at times. and when you do, you need to be able to cut out the ego and ‘baby tantrum throwing side’ away. You learn to grow up, develop a thicker skin and become a mature trader. This is one of the greatest benefits to learning to trade. It gets to the point where, after you’ve taken hundreds of trades, whether you take a loss or bank a profit, you’ll stay content. You embrace failure with open arms, because you know that it’s one step towards winning. My reason #5: Life skills – You learn risk, rewards and probabilities Once you have mastered the four elements to trading success (Markets, Methods, Money and Mind) you develop a very strong understanding of concepts like: Risk & reward management and probabilities. This won’t only apply to trading but to almost every aspect in your life. You start taking accountability of events into your life. Predictions turn into probabilities. Risk evolves into calculated acceptance. And you start to see things as they are, rather than what you want them to be… SO WHY DO YOU WANT TO TRADE?
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
1
20 Checklist Items in 2023 for YOUR TradingI wish you all the health and happiness, this year has to offer. To kick you off this year on a strong note, I’ve prepared a quick 20 item checklist which you can use for your trading. Save this as a guide for 2023. Let’s go… 1. Save and deposit a portion of your money every month, into your trading account to grow it faster. 2. Cut down on social media and save 15 minutes of no distractions a day to trade. 3. Re-look and evaluate your watchlist, which fits your strategy. 4. Don’t let the news, your friends or anyone interfere with your trading signals. 5. Never extend your stop loss in a trade where you can lose more money. 6. Be more mindful and accept when market trends change. 7. Never miss a trading idea that lines up according to your strategy 8. Celebrate taking each trade that lines up according to your proven strategy. 9. Ask trading questions so you’re never left in wonder. 10. Journal and jot down every trade that comes your way to build your trading track record. 11. Screenshot and save every trading setup, to remind you on how your strategy works live. 12. Find the best time that suits your trading personality and system. 13. Stop overthinking everything, once you’re in your trade. Let it be. 14. Watch every reputable trading stream and lesson on TradingView you can, to boost your knowledge. 15. Don’t fall for scams, get-rich-quick schemes and sensationalised marketing copy or posts on social media. 16. Trust and enjoy the process, week by week. 17. Persist and persevere through your own trading time-line and don’t compare yourself to others. 18. Only take trades when your trading strategy gives you signals 19. Only do what you love and love what you do – don’t waste your time on anything else. 20. Remember to say this when you’re feeling down. “YOU CAN ONLY GET BETTER”. I trust these resolutions will help you through the year.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Why Trend Lines are Powerful with Trading The closest predictor indicators when it comes to trading are: Price action and volume. I’m going to talk a bit about Price action today as Volume is a whole different cattle of fish. With TradingView charting platform there are a few indicators to identify a trend: Trend lines, Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages, Candlesticks and other bands and channels too numerous to mention. #1: Trend Lines – Trend detector Trend lines are perfect for pointing out the direction of the market. Trend lines are a useful tool for identifying the direction of a market. They are a straight line that is plotted through a series of data points. You can either plot a straight diagonal line to determine whether the market is going up or down. Or you can plot horizontal lines to identify ranges, sideways consolidation areas. That’s because trend lines plot through a series of data points on the charts to help point out whether the trends are moving up down or sideways. There are a number of benefits with using trend lines including: • Trend directions To help identify the overall direction of the market, whether it is trending up, down, or sideways. • S&R levels Point out key support (floor levels) and resistance (ceiling levels) These are great for points of entry. • Chart patterns and breakout levels Chart patterns are also used with trend lines. Especially neck lines, brim levels, box formations etc… • Points of reversals We also use trend lines to wait for a break in structure. Once this happens, we can see if the market is about to change direction and reverse. • Convert chaos into order End of the day all technical analysis and price action is used for confirmation bias. To apply to a strategy and to make calculated and informed decisions on what to do if something happens. Almost like a If this then That! I’ve used trend lines and price action since 2003 and they remain an important element to trading analyses. End of the day, the market can only move up, down and sideways. And you know why? Because the famous psychology of demand and supply will always work. And so they are here to stay and we might as well take advantage of it.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
3 Awkward Stages for a Trader!There are three awkward stages that every successful trader will go through. You can’t escape them. And let me warn you. The more successful you become the more awkward the stages get. Let’s get to them. AWKWARD STAGE 1: You are ridiculed First when you start out as a trader, you get nothing but doubt from everyone around you. You hear things like “It’s a scam” “You’ll blow your account” “You won’t last long” “Get a real career” This stage is purely based on one reason. Those who doubt you are either not traders and are clueless or they failed themselves and are now basing their failure on others. This can be quite demoralizing for you when you just get started. Also this is the starting stage where you’re trying to find your feet. I’d suggest you go where you are appreciated, rather than tolerated and ridiculed. Find a community of members that are starting out and a group that have been through the trial and error and are now succeeding. Once you’ve passed the ridicule stage, it doesn’t get any better just yet. AWKWARD STAGE 2: You are attacked This to me is the worst stage. Because as you’re finding your trading personality and risk profile, other traders get all up in your business. They tell you how wrong you are. They tell you how you’re not making any money and worse they gang up on you. I remember in 2009, I was doing ok as a trader. I joined a couple of groups on Skype and Facebook. And when I were to buy a trade (based on my strategy), the rest of the members attacked me by saying how wrong I was and that I’m going to lose all my money. And I just felt out of place by being called the contrarian of the group. I never attacked their analyses, I never tried to bring them down and I never interfered with their trading. I was then kicked out of many of these groups and was referred to as an emotionless robot. This once again left me as the loner trader with no community to relate to. Don’t worry about these people. Most of them have blown their accounts by now and still don’t know how to trade. Keep going and just keep trading. You’re doing well and don’t need this negativity. And then you’ll enter another awkward stage once you’ve progressed as a trader. AWKWARD STAGE 3: You are ignored Yep… You can make a living as a trader for over a decade. You can be at the maturity phase of your trading. You can be a multi-millionaire. But you’re still going to be ignored, by a number of groups. First, you’ll be ignored by pretty much all of the people who attacked you in the second stage. Second, you’ll be ignored by the egotistical traders just starting out and think they know better. Third, you’ll be ignored by nearly ALL of the trading companies that sell the false dream of making millions as a Forex trader. I’ve learnt that everyone wants you to do well, but not better than them. And I feel very sad for humanity, who think like this. I celebrate all traders who mean well, whether they are new to trading without any money saved up or are multi-millionaires. I even celebrate those who are much wealthier than I am... Because we are all on our own trading journey to success and time. Don’t worry about others, just focus on you!
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Money you can get back as a trader - Time you can't!When you're YOUNG you have time and energy but no money. when you're an ADULT you have energy and money but no time. When you're RETIRED and old you have money but less time and little energy. So, yes you can make mistakes, yes you can learn to trade, and practice for a bit. But DON'T do the following: Make BIG financial mistakes - Because that time to recoup it may be too late. Procrastinate with when to trade and why to trade - every day is an opportunity lost and an opportunity cost. Bite the bullet and do it well and risk aversely. Jump from winning strategy to winning strategy because of drawdowns. All trading strategies come with drawdowns and trading in the financial markets can be a highly profitable endeavor, but it can also be a time-consuming and stressful one. If you approach your trading with ONE strategy that suits you with a clear mind, a solid strategy, and a disciplined approach, you can maximize your chances of success. As I like to say. It is better to have 9 years of experience trading 1 strategy than 1 year of trading experience for 9 systems. It makes sense in my head. Let's focus on the power of 1 and your time will be worth the wait for when you achieve your trading success. Trade well, live free. Timon (Financial trader since 2003)
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
HOW IT WORKS: RSI (Relative Strength Index) IndicatorThe RSI is a popular momentum indicator used in technical analysis. It was originally developed by a mechanical engineer turned technical analyst J. Welles Wilder Jr. It was first published in a 1978 book, “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” and in Commodities Magazine (Futures magazine) in June’s 1978 issue. Today the RSI is one of the most popular indicators used to measure the speed and change of price movements. In other words, it measures the strength of its trend direction (up, down and sideways) on any market by monitoring the changes in its closing price. THE MAKE UP The RSI is a line graph that moves between two extremes… On the vertical axis (Y-Axis) the RSI line moves up and down in a range between 0 and 100. NOTE: As the indicator is between a range, it is considered a closed indicator. On the horizontal axis (X-Axis), the RSI line moves to the right which is plotted as time. NOTE: You can choose your own time frame i.e. days, hours, minutes etc… For all you technical boffins… If you want to know how the RSI is calculated, I’ve saved this at the end of the article. As a trader you won’t need to worry about the maths at all. Three trading signals you’ll use with the RSI 1. Overbought and Oversold levels 2. Patterns and Trend lines 3. Bullish and Bearish Divergences Trading signal 1: Overbought and Oversold levels When we see the market’s price move up, this means the buyers are outweighing the sellers. And the more higher closing prices we see, on a market, the higher the RSI line moves… When we see the market’s price drop, this means the sellers outweigh the buyers. And the more lower closing prices we see, on a given market, the lower the RSI line moves… However… If the buying continues at an unsustainable rate, the RSI will reach a point that traders call OVERBOUGHT (top heavy). This is where we could start to expect the price to drop from these levels and for the market to enter into a correction (dip). If the selling volume continues at an unsustainable rate, the RSI will reach a point that traders call OVERSOLD (undervalued). This is where we could start to expect the price to turn up from these levels and for the market to enter into a recovery (upside). Now that you understand overbought and oversold terms, let’s explain what I mean with the RSI chart. Overbought RSI: 70 (Sell opportunity) When you see the RSI line touch or cross above 70 (Red horizontal line), this is considered an overbought situation. At this point, traders may start to anticipate that the rising trend is about to end. Traders may then start to prepare to sell and short their positions, as they believe the market’s price has run up too much. If the market then turns down and starts to drop in price, the RSI line will drop below 70 and head back to equilibrium at 50 (Black horizontal line). Oversold RSI: 30 (Buy opportunity) When you see the RSI line touch or cross below 30 (Green horizontal line), this is considered an oversold situation. At this point, traders may start to anticipate that the falling trend is about to end. Traders may then start to buy (go long) their positions, as they believe the market’s price has dropped too much. If the market then turns up from the 30 mark and starts to rise in price, the RSI line will move back to equilibrium at 50 (Black horizontal line). Trading signal #2: Trend lines & Patterns The second way to spot buying and selling trade ideas is with trend lines and patterns. Uptrend confirmation To confirm the strength of the market’s uptrend, you should be able to draw a support (floor level) under the high low RSI prices. And when the RSI breaks below the support line, it could signal the end of the uptrend and a start to the next bear market. Downtrend confirmation To confirm the strength of the market’s downtrend, you should be able to draw a resistance (ceiling level) over the lower RSI high prices. And when the RSI breaks above the resistance line, it could signal the end of the downtrend and a start to the next bull market. These are great confirmation and reversal trading signals to use with your strategy. NOTE: You can also base your buy or sell ideas on trading chart patterns… Trading signal #3: Bullish & Bearish Divergence The third signal I use to spot trade opportunities with the RSI is looking at the market’s price VERSUS the RSI’s direction. In short… BEARISH DIVERGENCE – Warning for downside If the markets price makes higher lows, while the RSI makes lower highs – it’s a warning for DOWNSIDE to come. BULLISH DIVERGENCE – Sign for upside If the markets price makes lower highs, while the RSI makes higher lows – it’s a signal for UPSIDE to come. Either way with both bullish and bearish divergences, the RSI fails to accept the current market’s price movements. And so it is making a probability prediction that soon the market will make a reversal in its current trend. Ok so now you know how the RSI works. Let’s sum up what we learnt. RSI Summary in 3 Trading Signs: Trading signal #1: Overbought & Oversold levels Overbought zone X > 70 = Selling opportunity Neutral zone: X = 50 Oversold zone X < 30 = Buying opportunity Trading signal #2: Trend lines & Chart patterns Uptrend confirmation: RSI makes higher lows (draw support line) Downtrend confirmation: RSI makes lower highs (draw resistance line) Breakout confirmation: RSI breaks out of a chart pattern Trading signal #3: Bullish & Bearish Divergence Bullish divergence: Market’s price – lower highs RSI – higher lows Bearish divergence: Market’s price – higher lows RSI – lower highs Here’s how to calculate the RSI The most common (default) settings for the RSI is 14 (Which we’ll use)) There is a two-part calculation with the RSI. Part 1: Calculate the RSI (step 1) RS or Relative Strength is (Average Gain ÷ Average Loss) Average Gain = (Sum of gains over the past 14 periods) ÷ 14 Average Goss = (Sum of losses over the past 14 periods) ÷14 Calculate the RSI (Step 1) Part 2: Calculate the RSI (Step 2) Once you have this result, we then smoothen the RSI result with part 2… And so that’s how the RSI continues with each closing price of the time frame you choose. Trade well, live free. Timon (Financial trader since 2003)
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
5 Signs You’re Doing GREAT As A TraderMoney should not tell you how well or bad you’re doing as a trader. Percentages should reveal that all. It’s all RELATIVE. And so, in this TradingView piece, you’re going to go through a five signs checklist to see how well you’re doing as a trader. Sign #1: You have a personal trading strategy Do you know what: System you’re going to use to enter and exit your trades? Markets you’re going to choose? and Risk management principles you’re going to follow? And have you found that system that matches your personality and time preferences? If so… AWESOME! Tick it off the list. Sign #2: You’ve developed realistic trading goals Once you’ve got your trading strategy in a bag, you should have all your goals written down. Have you jotted down your trading strategy, stats, goals and expectations? This is your game plan that you’ll need to follow when you trade. You need to see what kind of outcomes you’re going to have with your trading. • How many trades will you take per year? • How many winners can you expect? • How many losers will you take? • What is your win rate? • What % of your portfolio will you expect to achieve? Sign #3: You’ve experienced a bad trading patch I feel this is the initiation side to getting to a higher level as a trader. When you have the strategy and goals in a bag, you’ve got to then put it all into play. And during this time, there’ll be once or twice a year a couple of weeks where you’ll go through a bunch of losing trades. If you have the right money management principles, you should be able to EASILY weather through this time. The markets move up and down and sideways… And during one of these periods, it will NOT fit well with your system. But let me tell you this, once you’ve gone through your drawdown period, and the markets become more favourable. It is the most exhilarating feeling, for your portfolio to make new highs once again. Go through this my friend, and you’ve ticked off another sign you’re doing GREAT. Sign #4: You continue to EVOLVE Sure, the trading strategy might not change. The risk management side won’t change. But there are a few things that will change, that you’ll need to adapt into your trading. First, markets, stocks and currencies are unlisting and listing ALL the time. And your trading strategy requires a watch list that works best with your system. So, you have to evolve to dump and add markets into your watch list that complement your trading strategy. You might also find a technique to increase your win rate and ride your winners up. If you can evolve as a trader, TICK it off the list. Sign #5: You are INDEPENDENT Do you care about your family, friends, pets and strangers opinions on the trades you take or have taken? No? GOOD! Tick it off the list. Nobody in this world, can tell you what to is right to buy or sell according to the strategy you use. You have the stats, you have the goals and you have your game plan. So how did you do? Trade well, live free... Timon (Financial trader since 2003)
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Don't lose a part of yourself when taking a lossLosing a part of yourself with a loss is a common experience for many traders. When you're in a trade it's easy to get caught up with emotions. When it's going your way, you almost feel like you've banked a winner. When it's going against you it feels like you're a failure and have lost already. You got to work on it and stop both feelings from taking over your trading. There is financial loss but more important emotional loss. Take the financial loss as a simple cost of running a business. But NEVER get caught up with the emotional cost of failure. Rather drop your risk per trade even more, until the point of losing or gaining has no significance to your emotions. Achieve that and you'll know your risk profile and where you are right now as a trader. Work on it and it gets easier over time. Trade well, live free. Timon (Financial trader since 2003)
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
1
BEFORE and AFTER Each Trading Day you shouldA game-plan is a must, to see a potential goal, dream or vision. You got to have a proper POA (Plan Of Action) and execute. Whether it’s selling property, building a business, playing a sport or growing your wealth. You need a BEFORE plan and AFTER plan. Same with trading. You need to have a trading plan BEFORE and AFTER each trading day. BEFORE Each Trading Day: 1. Know the main market’s trend direction The first thing I want to know is, what the main market’s trend direction is. Plot the resistance (ceiling) and support (floor) levels, so you know whether they are in an up, down or sideways trend. If up – look for longs (buys) If down – look for shorts (sells) If sideways – look for potential breakout levels. 2. Scan through your watchlist Once you know the main market’s trend direction, have a quick scan through your watch list (markets you trade). Orientate yourself with where the markets are heading and whether trades are lining up. This way, you won’t go into the trading day blindly. 3. Write down high probability trade setups You know the main market’s trend direction, and have an idea of where the markets are heading – now you can plot your trade ideas. Go through the watch list again, and write down any potential trade setups (with your written entry, stop loss, take profit and reasons for entering the trade). 4. Choose your TRADES for the day Just because you have written down trade setups, doesn’t mean you need to take every one of them. Instead, look at which ones which will yield a better probability at working out and has a better chance at winning. All done before the trading day has even begun… AFTER Each Trading Day 1. Journal every trade When the markets’ have closed, and you have time to breathe, go to your trading journal and jot down the trade/s you took for the day. Each entry should have the (Market name, date, type, margin, entry, stop loss, take profit and reason for entry). 2. Outline lessons of the day If you’re just starting out or you’ve been in the markets for less than five years, I suggest this extremely useful step. Write down any market lessons you learn for the day. Here are some lessons you can write down: How the market reacted to a news event How you felt taking a trade or holding onto current trades Mistakes of the day you learnt or made Trading lessons that you want to incorporate into your trading… Write these lessons down, as they will forever be part of your experiences to become a successful trader. 3. Re-check & confirm your open trades This is extremely NB*. Make sure your entry, stop loss and take profit levels are still in the trading platform with all open trades, at the end of the day… Sometimes, brokers have certain glitches in their systems, that can remove your trading levels (automatically). It happens on a continuous basis and it’s our job, to make sure everything is running smoothly and our levels are still in place. 4. Quick scan your watch list & look for potential trades for tomorrow Last action you can take for the day, is preparing for tomorrow. Go through your watch list, look for the next batch of trade setups and write them down. This is so you know what to do for the next day… Trade well, live free. Timon
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Why the INNOCENT traders always get scammedI received a very important question from a dear member named Bakang. He asked "Why do people who show the most dedication are the ones who gets scammed most of the time". Now, I have given an indepth answer with certain reasons and a book I wrote, because of how important this topic is... Please read it and share it to your friends, family and groups. You just might be helping them avoid being scammed themselves. Here is my answer: Thank you for your question and it is a very common problem in society. There are many reasons why innocent people tend to fall for scams when it comes to the stock market and other high promising schemes. Reason #1: Humans are just too trusting Humans have a tendency of trusting the fellow man and believing in the greater good of them. They read about how they’ll make fortunes with them using secretive and insider information – and they make you feel a part of something. Then as soon as they have your money, they leave you and head over to the next victim like a snake in the grass. Reason #2: Hot next thing Every scammer tries to outwit another scammer’s intention. They see what one scammer is offering and they make even more false promises, lies and tendencies. Then the innocent person is lured in because they don’t want to MISS this ‘once in a life time opportunity’. This has been happening for thousands of years, and human nature is unlikely to change. Reason #3: Being persuaded by top marketers The biggest type of scammer is the loudest, most charismatic and they show off things that they don’t have. Or the money they do have it’s from the people who have been scammed. This is where you read the loudest promos, false and misleading information and advertising. Also, my favourite is where people read FAKE testimonials with life stories on how something changed their lives… Reason #4: Fear, Greed and Ego Most people who are scammed fall for the two big sins of life. Fear and Greed. They fear to miss out on these opportunities and fear that it will never come again. They have greed where once they’re lured in, they believe in it and deposit a lot more money having this undeniable faith they will be rewarded. EGO is the one that is hardly spoken about but I think it’s equal to fear and greed. Ego is where they refuse to believe it’s a scam. They believe they made the right choice joining them and where they want to prove to everyone, he/she was right and they were wrong. Reason #5: Lack of education The first way people are scammed is when they don’t have the starting education and understanding of the true and real principles that come with the venture they’re in. They think, because they have money they will win. But when you dig into the actual principles and education, you’ll realise that there is and has never been a get rich quick way into anything. Everything requires risk and probabilities to achieve some kind of reward in the medium to long term. Other reasons! There are other reasons like feeling desperate to do something, acting urgently without thought, being persuaded by others and believe wrong and false information on a website. It is up to you and me and all of us to better educate ourselves, avoid any scams and to choose the right people to trust and learn from… Hope this helps and feel free to share this to spread awareness to fellow traders. Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader (Trader since 2003)
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
How do you calculate Bitcoin's Market Capitalisation?It’s quite similar to calculating the market cap of a share. To calculate the market capitalization of a cryptocurrency, you need to know two things: 1. The current market price of the cryptocurrency 2. The total number of coins or tokens that have been issued. Then all you do is multiply the market price and the total number of coins or tokens. Let’s calculate the market cap of Bitcoin… The current market price for bitcoin is $16,939 and the current number of tokens in circulation are 19,255,318. To calculate the market capitalization of Bitcoin, you would multiply the market price by the total supply. Bitcoin market cap = $16,939 X 19,255,318 = $329,021,194,902 You can go on Google and type in what the price of a Crypto coin is and then what the number of tokens are in circulation. Then multiply the two and you’ll have the market cap. If you have a trading question, ask in the comments. Trade well, live free, Timon MATI Trader (Trader since 2003)
OANDA:BTCUSDEducation
by Timonrosso