EURUSD SHORT BIASHERE IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF WHY I CALL THIS PATTERN A STAIR CASE OR STAIRS, WHICH ENDS WITH A U SHAPE.
THE RATIOS ARE: 23.6-38% RETRACE BETWEEN A STRONG MOVE,
THEN A 76 % FIB EXPANSION CONTINUATION OF THE MOVE
WHICH THEN GOES INTO A 38% RETRACE.
AS ALL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, THERE ARE A BIT MORE MATHS INVOLVE BUT IT'S MOSTLY EXPERIMENTAL. THE TREND ANGLE FOR EXAMPLE IS A GREAT TOOL TO UTILIZE DURING ANALYSIS, IT ASSIST IN PREDICTION WHEN COMPARING TIME PERIOD AND PRICE.
HAPPY NEW YEAR, I WISH FOR EVERYONE A PROSPEROUS 2016!
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TRADER’S RULES:Let’s glimpse into the basics and do not forget to use these rules.
It’s proved - they do work!
TRADER’S RULES
1. Always work in the direction of the dominant trend
2. Find the strategy where you are most successful, namely the one that gives the minimum account drawdown
3. Reduce the number and size of transactions in case of losses, and vice versa
4. The main rule of profitable trading is control over losses
5. Plan ahead
6. At any time, assume that your plan is not working
7. Everything that happened is history. Focus on the future
8. Success in this business requires incredible concentration and mental costs. Learn to relax
9. Never allow your winning attitude to became unprofitable
10. If you have done something wrong, immediately close the position
11. If you do not see the possibilities – do not trade
12. Do not be a hero. Do not think that you know more than the market. Work with confidence, but always doubt yourself
13. Never overtrade
14. Do not take risks before and immediately after the release of important economic data. This is not the trading but the gambling
15. Avoid emotions
16. Use not just a price stop, but a time stop. If you are waiting for a breakthrough of the market, and it did not happen, close the position, even if it is in profit.
Using Fibonacci to assist your trading decisions...EUR/USD I have always studied and monitored price action against Fibo levels and providing the markets trend and do not reverse the myth of Fibonacci works for me...
Here is a daily chart showing the recently completed ABCD pattern...A - B boundary completed and a C shallow pullback correction formed. This offered an extension target at the 1.618% (1.24978)...notice how price reacted to both pullback and extension Fibo levels...
Updated: TimWest ABX Chart showing Low Risk CCI EntryTimWest "Buy pullbacks to "0" in CCI (21-day) and then exit on the next move to +100 and +150. I doubt it will get to +200 again right away unless we have a move in VIX to 18-20."
With Fed Mtg around the corner and Vix climbing and GLD climbing. Could be solid entry point
Cypher Pattern on GoldVery nice confluence with the 1.27 ext measured from C to B leg lining up with 0.786 retracement of X to A. We have good structure resistance dating back to early May '13. Let's see if this pattern can reverse price.
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Possible Deep bearish crab completion on WTI Oil Oil is tanking, but there's still a possibility that USOIL can complete the deep bearish crab pattern as long as price action doesn't violate the C leg.
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Butterfly Patteren on EURUSDEuro making a comeback on the rally. Price action put in a .786 retracement on the B leg of the X to A measurement which validates a potential Butterfly pattern. If price rejects $1.371 at the 1.27 ext.. We may see a reversal.
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Change In Behavior for GoldJune 23, 2014
Gold has a change in behavior and on the frequency of its new Up Sloping Fork. Price now has to navigate the 1320.00 check point. Potential support 1312.00. Moderate advance target at 1400 area -August 6-12. Keep eye on U$D.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell this commodity.......
Gold Miners $GDX may be heading for a reversal A Gartley and a Cypher pattern is pointing to the same exact destination for a sell reversal. We have previous structure at $31.31 & $29.38 coupled with confluence with two 1.27 extension ratios. $29.95. and $28.96 at the .786 retracment will be our kill zone.
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Intra-day short on AUD/CADTwo trades could play out here. The shark pattern (blue) being the most probable because of the strong previous structure of support now turned resistance between price $1.0178 at 1.13 fib extension and $1.1854 at .886 retracement. The kill zone would be between those two price levels. Price also recently formed a bat pattern (purple). We might see a pull back at the bat, not sure if it could take price completely down.Would make for a good scalp in my opinion. Let's see..
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Potential Bearish Crab on PowersharesPowershares is showing signs of potential bearish crab pattern. The PRZ is measured from A to X leg at the 1.618 extension level at price $96.23. Even though there is naked structure around $96.28 kill zone, There is confluence at $96.28 at the 3.618 & 1.618 extension level. This should act as resistance. If this plays out, we should see a good rejection which would lead to Powershares taking a nice pull back into X where there is previous structure support.
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Amazon presenting many optionsThere are 2 really good trades that can play out here. A bearish Cypher (Blue) and a bullish crab (yellow). Currently, price action is in close range of the cypher. If price action can make it's way between $352. 40 at 1.27 extension and $362.18 at .786 retracement kill zone, there is a high probability chance for a reversal. If the cypher plays out and price makes it way down to $227.73 and $220.29 kill zone.. We may see another reversal at the bullish crab pattern (yellow).. All we have to do is sit and wait, and let the market come to us. Limit orders were made for a reason.
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Weekly outlook on EUR/AUD Bullish Bat pattern (orange) has formed and i'm looking for a bounce at the .886 retracement from X to A leg. Price is currently at good structure and historical support as well there is a confluence between the .886 retracement and 2.24 extension which gives highly confirmation of this pattern playing out. This is only a countertrend trade. EURAUD have been making higher lows and lower lows. If price can make it down to 1.298 and 1.287, we may also see another bullish reversal at the Bullish Crab Pattern (yellow). Plan your trades, and trade your plan.
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Intra-day Bearish Gartley, with a hint of Bat There's a potential gartley showing up. If C leg can make it up to $92.68-$92.74 we may see reversal in price upon the completion for an intra-day trade. For longer term, price action may trade down to 91.08 to complete a Bat pattern. There's strong structure around $91.42-$91.13. The Bat pattern would make for a perfect retracement back to the trend line, if you happen to draw a trend line.
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Potential Bullish Butterfly ReversalMeasuring the A to B leg with fibonacci , C slams right into the .382 fibonacci retracement. If the .382 can hold it's resistance and throne, we may see possibility of a bullish butterfly completing at price $12.65, 1.27 extension level.
Although A to B extension 1.27 and C to B extension 1.628 does shows confluence, price may reject these levels as support and bounce back up. All we can do is predict. Price action is our play book, whatever price does, we follow.. Let's see what happens.
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Long term forecast on Facebook $FBCould Facebook stock drop to $50??? It might be too early to tell, but if price action doesn't make a new swing high above C leg, then this pattern may have high probably of completing. Bearish divergence on the RSI extending from July 13'. A GrandSuper Cycle wave 3 confirming the down trend which peaked at price $72.73. $FB is now showing signs of a bullish gartley reversal if price gets down to 50 bucks. Our Potentinal reversal kill zone is at price $51.21 measured from C to B leg at the 1.27 fib extension, expanding to price $49.95 measured from X to A 78.6 fib retracement.
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What Draghi says, it goes. But technically?? hmm???Fundamentally, the euro is not looking so good. But I always trade what is on my charts . Price has formed a Bat pattern and also a cypher pattern (credit goes to user eXcess0070 for informing me there is also a cypher possibility)... Hidden Bullish divergence on the RSI tells me maybe the Euro is not completely done and have some fight left in him. . PRZ zone is between price 1.458 at .886 extension of X to A leg , and 1.428 at .786 fib retracement of X to C leg on Cypher. If price action moves higher we may see a bearish reversal in .886 and .786 PRZ
Cypher- Blue
Bat- Green
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U$D Index Stepping Out and UpFinally, Price probed and settled beyond resistance of its UMLH with wide separation. Price Advance Tilt on a Fulcrum. Euro weakened further today with a settlement below an important support level.