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Intraday Playbook ES Futures: Trade Setup & Context CME_MINI:ES1! Big Picture Context Please see related trade idea. In this analysis, we refine our intraday levels to identify potential trade setups. We also review recent price action and present a high-probability long trade example that frequently offers favorable risk-reward dynamics when it plays out successfully. See chart image below reviewing yesterday’s long trade opportunity. Example Trade Setup: SFP Long Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins • Entry: 5612 • Stop: 5595.50 (below SFP candle) • Target: 5682 (mCVAH — confluence with recent highs) • Risk: 66 ticks • Reward: 280 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.2 R Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results. ________________________________________ Intraday Market Structure Review What has the market done? • ES Futures have rallied and reclaimed a key technical level. • Currently trading above: o March 2025 low o 2025 mid-year level o Developing Value Area Low (VAL) for the 2025 Volume Profile What is the market trying to do? • Recover prior months' losses. • Price action is climbing steadily, establishing higher lows. How well is it doing? • Despite headline risks, ES futures show resilience. • Price has painted green candles in the full session for the past 10 consecutive days—a strong bullish structure. ________________________________________ What Is More Likely to Happen from Here? Scenario 1: Pullback and Continuation Higher A pullback toward the 0.618 Fib retracement and mCVAH confluence could offer another long setup, targeting the April 2nd high. This is further supported by NQ already reclaiming those highs, with ES still lagging but showing strength. Example Trade Idea: Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins • Entry: 5688 • Stop: 5680 • Target: 5724 (May 2 High) • Risk: 32 ticks • Reward: 144 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.5 R Target may be adjusted if relative volume and delta support strong momentum toward April 2nd highs. ________________________________________ Scenario 2: Further Consolidation • Sellers push prices back into last week's balance/value area. • Market consolidates and builds energy for a likely next leg higher. • No short setup is presented, as current risk and stop placement do not justify initiating short positions. Important Notes: • These are example trade ideas not intended to be a recommendation to trade, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions. • Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.

ES Futures: Upcoming Mag 7 Earnings and NFP Report This week, although there was not much market-moving macro newsflow over the weekend, we are approaching month-end. In addition, several key catalysts are on the horizon, including earnings from the Magnificent 7 and the release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which typically arrives on the first Friday of the month. The Federal Reserve is currently in its blackout period ahead of the interest rate decision scheduled for May 7th, 2025. As part of our process, we will be reviewing technical levels and drawing a plan based on current market structure. ES futures are currently trading above the March 2025 lows. A “death cross” — where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average on the daily timeframe — was recently observed. This pattern is commonly touted by analysts as a bear market indicator. However, in a macro-driven environment, this could potentially be a false signal. Key Levels: • mCVAL: 5622 • Upper Neutral Zone: 5620 -5585 • March 2025 Low: 5533.75 • 2022 CVAH: 5384.75 • Lower Neutral Zone: 5171.75 -5150.75 Our scenarios are as follows: Scenario 1: Range-bound price action A P-shaped micro composite profile suggests resistance at our neutral zone. It is labeled neutral because the price is trading above the March 2025 lows. However, if the level above acts as resistance, we expect further range-bound price action. Markets may trade below the mCVAL for further price discovery and potentially establish a new short-term range, with the 2024 lows acting as downside support. Scenario 2: Mag 7 and NFP as bullish catalysts Four of the Magnificent 7 companies are reporting earnings this week. The Mag 7 collectively represent around one-third of the S&P 500 index by market capitalization. Microsoft and Meta are scheduled to report on Wednesday after the close, while Amazon and Apple report on Thursday after the close. On Friday, the NFP data will be released. This could serve as a fundamentally net-positive catalyst for U.S. markets, especially in light of recent shocks that have weakened sentiment. In this scenario, we will be closely watching our neutral zone and mCVAL as potential areas to initiate long trades. Glossary Index for all technical terms used: Blue Zones: Neutral zones. C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP) mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP) VAL: Value Area Low VAH: Value Area High VP: Volume Profile CME_MINI:ES1!

Planning the Trade: Crude Oil Scenarios in a Shifting Macro Land NYMEX:CL1! In volatile times, both opportunities and risks increase. Traders gain the ability to be more selective, adapting to new market regimes by adjusting risk and trade management strategies. Key tools in this process include indicators such as the Average True Range and Close-to-Close volatility sigma bands. April 20, 2020: A historic day, WTI Crude Oil prices traded negative for the first time, and we have yet another volatile April. "If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail." Preparation is essential before taking on the market head-on. Many participants choose to stay on the sidelines when volatility exceeds 1 standard deviation. Others, however, see this as an opportunity—adapting their risk per trade, adjusting targets, and refining trade management. Reducing position size can be an effective way to manage periods of heightened volatility. This Week's Trade Idea: Crude Oil We'll be reviewing Crude Oil price action with updated levels, fresh insights, and framing a trade plan with an example idea for reference. Key Levels: • April Monthly Open: 70.75 • 2025 mCVPOC: 71.13 • Yearly Open: 69.64 • 2024 Mid: 69.52 • 2025 Developing Mid: 66.52 • 2025 mCVAL: 65.08 • March 2025 Low: 64.37 • 2022 CVAL: 61.60 • 2024 Low: 59.91 The recent announcement of reciprocal tariffs, coupled with OPEC+ production plans (though scheduled earlier), and the rising uncertainty around a possible recession, have collectively weighed on demand expectations—resulting in a significant decline in oil prices. Although the 2024 low was reclaimed and prices have remained above this level, the sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain. Scenario 1: Push Higher Towards 2025 Mid In this scenario, we anticipate prices closing above March lows. Price then pushes higher toward the 2025 developing mid-range, re-entering the 2025 micro composite value area (mCVA). Example Trade Idea: • Timeframe: Hourly • Setup: Wait for a candle close above March lows. Look for a pullback reaction off the 2025 Value Area Low (VAL). • Entry: 64.50 • Stop: 64.00 • Target: 66.50 • Risk: 50 ticks • Reward: 200 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 4R ________________________________________ Scenario 2: Range-Bound Price Action In this scenario, the March low acts as strong resistance, aligning with the 2025 mCVAL. Price reverts lower towards the 2022 CVAL. Example Trade Idea: • Setup: Watch for signs of buyer exhaustion near March lows. If sellers regain control, look for a move back down toward 2022 CVAL. • Timeframe: Hourly • Entry: 64.00 • Stop: 64.40 • Target: 62.00 • Risk: 40 ticks • Reward: 200 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 5R ________________________________________ Important Notes: These are example trade ideas provided for educational purposes and are not intended as trade recommendations. Traders should perform their own analysis and thorough preparation before entering any positions. Please be aware that stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at the specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels. ________________________________________ Glossary: • VA: Value Area • VPOC: Volume Point of Control • VAL: Value Area Low • C: Composite (used as a prefix: VA, VAL, VAH, VPOC, etc.) • mC: micro Composite (used as a prefix: mCVA, mCVAL, etc.)