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Traditionalmarkets

Where are those dollors?An update to my previous idea, We see strong down trend in DXY, more dump for traditional market, and also bearish trend in crypto market,... So what are these dollars waiting for? maybe waiting for better narratives or maybe better supports in markets! get prepared and be on call! Sometime ago I have posted this idea: Now we an update to that analysis with smaller timeframe, and we see a nice support in green box, I would think we will have some range here or more downtrend for DXY in upcoming days What are your thoughts?
TVC:DXYShort
by Rezakaz
2
BTCM continues to trade on delay with BitcoinThe traditional market do not fully understand crypto yet and the lag between #Bitcoin and #crypto related stocks is extremely easy to capitalize on... BTCM is a Bitcoin and crypto mining company that is publicly traded on NYSE so I am very interested in owning ALL of this stock but I have been forced to trade in and out due to the correlation being so obvious. I am not really long or short on this stock, I am simply riding the Bitcoin wave when to get in and out and suggest you put it on your radar to do the same even just to watch.
NYSE:BTCMShort
by Trainwreck
Bitcoin and the big macro pictureBTCUSD currently in a very bearish trend. Keeps closing lower and lower both on daily and weekly charts, while the price keeps getting rejected at previously important levels. Bitcoin is oversold and cheap compared to several models and previous cycles, but because it went up too fast it could potentially bottom anywhere between 12k to 28k. Essentially its momentum and trend are very bearish, although Bitcoin is cheap. It could just get a lot cheaper. It's tested the 28-31k zone so many times, that the whole thing will probably break down. Currently 31-31.5k is resistance and until that is properly reclaimed I remain pretty bearish. BTC could go all the way up to 35.3k and still be bearish, but once it closes above that level I think the bull is fully back. BTC.D is another thing indicating that the crypto market isn't in a good state at the moment. Bitcoin dominance growing without Bitcoin showing strength potentially means money is leaving the market. Yes there is money coming in, in the form of stablecoins, but the market still doesn't look very healthy. We have a big bubble and its only been about 2 months since it popped and we haven't seen capitulation yet. Bitcoin dominance could reach 60% before alts start going up hard again (both vs USD and BTC). https://www,tradingview.com/x/TL3Wr5PH/ Bonds had a massive breakout. There are many reasons why bonds could be going up, but I think this also hits the inflation/reflation story/narrative in the head. The Fed isn't printing money and there is no real growth, so at least for now inflation is transitory. The market is telling us banks aren't lending and that there is a lot of trouble ahead, something clearly shown by the Reverse Repo situation where banks want to give cash and get pristine collateral (US Treasuries). Clearly the Delta variant, the Fed being hawkish, so very high inflation numbers etc are also catalysts/signals that things are good and that the Fed has neither inflation or deflation under control. The USD (DXY) hasn't broken out completely yet, but it is creeping higher. Another not so great sign. The USD has a lot of resistance in the 96-97 area so even if it breaks out, it might just create a shock in the markets which might not last for very long. At the moment getting down to 91 wouldn't be abnormal and then go up to 96-97. Personally I think that breaks 89 it will head all the way down to 82, but until then it's still in this massive range and I have no idea which way is it going to break. The USD and Bonds creeping higher are not good signs for the reflation trade for sure, Oil is at key support right now and with OPEC announcing more production + the Delta variant + the reflation trade slowing down for months now + oil hitting a 6.5 year high, were enough to slam Oil back down... but personally I think the low supply + underinvestment + the insane collapse & bear market bottom in April 2020 are the major catalysts that will take oil higher. Oil is a good buy here and all the way down to 44. In the next few years it will probably hit 100$ Gold is trapped in a range. Doesn't look great, doesn't look awful... But because its below most key MAs, below most key pivots and has tested the diagonal support & the horizontal at 1680 so many times, I think it will break lower. If dollar goes up, then I expect Gold to go down. Silver seems very weak and breaking down. Another bad sign for the reflation trade and could be a bad sign for gold too. After the failed scam pump silver failed to go higher and I wouldn't touch it until it hits 19$ or breaks above 30$. Copper made a new ATH and then quickly crumbled back down. We saw something similar with gold, but at different time period and that's not bullish. At least until I see them reclaim their 2011 ATHs I am cautious. Copper unlike silver looks a lot more bullish as its long term trend is still up and the demand for copper could skyrocket due to the green revolution, but in the short term if it breaks below 4$ I think it would potentially bounce at 3.7$ and then bottom at 3.3$. Nasdaq 100 has been the best performer of the last few months as US tech giants are benefiting from a strong dollar and deflation. The Nasdaq going up alone was a sign that something was a bit off. In my opinion stocks, and especially US tech stocks will go even higher and properly parabolic over the next few years... but in the short term I am a cautious. NDX showing some strength at the moment but could dip down to 14.2k and if that doesn't hold to go all the way down to 12.4k. In my opinion there is no doubt that stock market bull isn't over, at least not for the Nasdaq. SPX hit some very important support and this could be the dip. Beautiful fill of the inefficiency and bounced a bit. The SPX Equal weight topped in May 10th along with crypto, another sign that the final rally was only because of large caps. Russell 2000 also showing a similar picture although it actually topped in Mid March. The current way the Russell looks is a proper reversal and doesn't look bullish. However it's still in this range and because it has held the lows after sweeping only one there is a chance it goes higher. If it start dropping the best area to look for buying are the old ATHs which coincides with the Vaccine/Election breakout pump. DAX Not looking great, but still very bullish long term. Nikkei has been having these pumps and then full retrace for many many years. The situation is similar to the Russell, so I'd definitely like to go long near 24.2k
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by BitcoinMacro
Traditional market analysis 18/06/2021 #4The reflation trade seems to be over although there is still some hope. The FOMC meeting seems to have been the catalyst to confirm the end, but that reversal was brewing for quite some time. We had excess speculation, we had people truly believe this wasn't transitory... and we might get some persistent inflation due to supply constraints, but this isn't due to demand being high. Bitcoin & Crypto reversed months ago and that was the first sign of weakness. Bonds have bottomed for quite some time and Inflation expectations have also started rolling over. They seemed to have been in the same cyclical pattern as they were in 2008-2010 and nothing more than that. Of course this could continue for another year mainly due to oil going higher, as I am still bullish on it given the supply constraints and how good the chart looks like. Oil alone going higher doesn't mean we have true reflation, but some demand coming back and not enough supply which might take 1-2 years to get back. 63-67 Seems strong support for oil. Bonds have had a very clear reversal and a very clear bottom and now they have formed a mini uptrend. I don't believe yields will fully crash or that we are going below zero soon, but I also don't believe they will go way lower soon. Usually when we get such a top like the one we go in March 2020 things don't come back super strong (look at UB & TLT), especially as we are closer to the 0 bound. Currently this looks like another typical correction for bonds... so if they keep going higher the hopes for inflation get crushed. And that's normal because the world is drowning in debt and soon people will have to start paying back their debts as things are re-opening. However the problem is that the economies are not in a good shape and the covid shock isn't one that can be ignored. The damage has been huge. Bonds & USD going higher isn't a good sign, especially as the USD seems to be breaking out. It has now closed above the 200 DMA for the second time and not only that, but for example when looking at GBPUSD we see a clear breakdown for the GBP. Until it breaks 1.43 this could be a pretty bearish signal. Maybe this move is an overreaction and nothing happens, but we need to be aware that certain trends are showing weakness and it is better to wait before stepping in. Now stocks aren't in such a bad state, at least not yet. I am worried a bit that this very low volatility + some other catalyst could send them much lower. Maybe Tech stocks are the ones that benefit the most from lower yields, but smaller stocks could suffer. Nasdaq still looking strong and during such a period it could benefit the most if the rest don't have a mega crash. If everything crashes, then I would expect it to roll over too. Metals like Copper and Silver have also dropped a lot, but it isn't over for them. They are at support, but if the USD keeps going up along with bonds they might suffer more because real rates will be going higher again. The truth is that the current move have been pretty large on FX and Metals so we might take a break here. After that we can re-evaluate what is going to happen. Stocks are still in a large bullish trend at least in the long term but if everything else has reversed I think stocks will eventually be affected. Now when it comes to Central banks, their moves will be such to test the market, potentially cause a correction and then they buy the dip. Essentially this is what they've been doing willingly or unwillingly. They can't really raise rates with debt levels so high but they are bluffing. They are essentially trying to manage expectations and actually claim they tamed inflation, when the inflationary trend (reflation) was already reversing. People believe they are so powerful and they know what they are doing... but they really don't. It isn't QE or their actions that create results, but people actually believe that they are powerful. The Fed is in the business of managing expectations, not money. s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com
FX:NAS100
by BitcoinMacro
1
BITCOIN MIRRORS THE SPX, AMAZON GOING TO NUKE THE MARKETS 💣Hey hey my friends 👋 BITCOIN correlates to the spx (s&p500) Which is currently being drug down by AMAZON, the snp500 has currently had a daily close below a major support trend-line from march 2020 We are waiting to see what happens here, the fed needs to control the yield curve! If Powell cant figure his shit out then this will continue If the yield curve doesn't get figured out the market will tumble Amazon had a bearish retest and broke the 200EMA, without the fed growing their balance sheet this can end bad Stay safe, we are out of the market and waiting for a signal we are good to go
NASDAQ:AMZN
by LucrorStrategies
4
BTC been correlating with Gold more than SPX over past weeks!Just a quick thing to note. Presently the treat of government shutdown in the US and the looming election is creating uncertainty in the market, leading to mass liquidation back into USD -- as irrational as that may be considering the present debasement of the USD (and of other currencies around the world, including the Yuan, and the Pound, etc). See previous BTC analysis which considered the bearish case in an update just before the dump: Key thing to note, as posted in an update of the analysis above: "If 10400 USD VPVR level fails to hold, expecting price to drop to the white long-term resistance-turned-support level presently at 9600 USD to finally close the CME gap (yet again)."
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cybernetwork
4
Possible Ascending Triangle in play for SPY here.Taking a look at SPY here; we can see SPY has been putting in higher-low's ever since early April, and has been doing so along the 21 day EMA in purple. Price has respected the flat line of resistance along the 200 day EMA in light-blue around 293 or so. Looks like a textbook ascending triangle setup. Measured move of the ascending triangle could take SPY back up to the 313 region; which has some nice confluence as it was the rejection point on March 4th following a bounce off of the 285 level when SPY started to drop initially. If the prior higher-low at 279 is taken out, or the daily closes below the 21 day EMA in purple, this ascending triangle structure would be invalidated. EMA guide: 21 day EMA in Purple. 55 day EMA in Teal. 200 day EMA in Light-Blue. If anyone is interested, I do have a VIP group where I share my opinions and analysis on the cryptocurrency markets (and occasionally on the traditional markets as well.) It is a $50 one time payment for permanent access. If that is of interest to you, send me a DM on Tradingview, Telegram, Twitter, or Discord. Telegram: @Deftsuo Twitter: @deftsuolol Discord: deftsuolol#3211
AMEX:SPYLong
by Deftsuo
TSLA is in the Thrill/Euphoria stage. Be cautious. -TSLA is in a very strong, parabolic uptrend. In my opinion, this stock has entered the Thrill/Euphoria phase of the market cycle. This is a good time to be cautious and evaluate the situation accordingly. Lots of indicators are suggesting this stock is very ahead of itself, and it is only a matter of time before the chickens come home to roost. TSLA is a not a stock to short as we've seen the last several weeks, but if you're long, how much more does it have in the tank? These are important questions to ask yourself as price is in the Thrill/Euphoria stage. I attached a link to the Wall Street Cheat Sheet (Psychology of a Market Cycle) below that has a nice infographic that shows where I think TSLA may be at the moment. -If you guys recall, I made a bullish tradingview post when TSLA was around $180 several months ago. If you'd like to check it out, the link is here: -The Wall Street Cheat Sheet (Psychology of a Market Cycle): wisecryptos.com -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Deftsuo
SPX normalised XBT chart.BTC is still presently being treated as a risk asset. IMO, only when the need arises globally (i.e. significant or even hyper-inflation), could it then potentially decouple (i.e. think Venezuela), and be treated more as a safe-haven. This chart shows the Bitcoin (XBT) chart normalized by the S&P 500 index (SPX). A 50/200 SMA golden cross have only just emerged on the 1Mar2020. Will continually monitor this chart can update this publication periodically. :) See also my recent analysis on the S&P 500 chart: On the 1D chart, we technically have already entered (at the very least) a mini-recession. Will this transform into a full-blown recession or even a depression? Whether the weekly 200 SMA will hold will tell. Fundamentally, the bubble have already gotten wayyy too big -- Obama, instead of fixing the underlying problem, allowed the issue to continue by bailing out the broken banking system (taking tax payer's money to feed the welfare system for the big corporations and the mega wealthy -- where the CEOs and corporate executives had continued to shamelessly pay themselves massive bonuses and pay-cheques after collapsing the economy, while cutting jobs and pay for the middle class staffs; and after that, Trump continue to feed the bubble into the monstrosity it is today (with debt that needs to be paid back sooner or later). Trumps's answer to the crazy US debt? "Easy we can just print more money". Long-term, I remain cautiously bullish on Bitcoin. :)
BITMEX:XBT
by cybernetwork
Facebook's 200 day MA may serve as a bounce point around $192.Taking a look at Facebook (FB), we can see it is currently getting sold off quiet viciously. However, there may an opportunity for a trade if price pulls back towards the 200 day MA in red which has served as an important support point twice in recent months. This 200 day MA in red may serve as a base as it has in the past. Just something to keep your eye on. 200 day MA in red is currently around $192. MA Guide (All Daily for this post): 21 EMA in Purple. 200 MA in Red. -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
NASDAQ:METALong
by Deftsuo
1
Rising wedge formation on Apple, could head lower.Apple (AAPL) is currently within a rising wedge formation; and the top of the wedge nearly coincides with the previous peak back between September and October of 2018. They also have some potential fundamental headwinds with the US/China trade tension, and the hype from their new Iphone and new apple products might begin to wane. The 225-230 level is proving to be a difficult resistance to break. The target of the rising wedge would put the price roughly around $180, but I am also watching the 50/100/200 day MA's as possible bounce points. MA Guide (All daily for this post): 50 MA in Green. 100 MA in Yellow. 200 MA in Red. -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress. Also, for any crypto traders out there, Binance just launched their US exchange (Binance US.) If you need a link to go sign up, click here--> www.binance.us
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Deftsuo
Weekly Ascending triangle on JPM, $145-150 target?JPM currently has an ascending triangle forming the weekly, with a flat line of resistance around 118 and a rising line of support. Price is getting toward the end of the pattern here, and we had a bit of a false break-out into a decent sell down. However, price is still respecting the rising trend-line support and it had a decent buy-back before last weeks weekly close. The measured move of a potential break-out would give us a price target around $145-150. Also, for any crypto traders out there, Binance just launched their US exchange (Binance US.) If you need a link to go sign up, click here--> www.binance.us MA Guide (All weekly for this post): 50 MA in Green. 200 MA in Red. -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
NYSE:JPMLong
by Deftsuo
TWTR looking like a double top, similar to 2014/2015.TWTR is currently putting in what appears to be a double top. We saw a similar structure form back in 2014/2015 before Twitter headed lower. There is a possibility we may see that pattern repeat here. I am looking for a pull-back to some of the weekly moving averages. Also, for any crypto traders out there, Binance just launched their US exchange (Binance US.) If you need a link to go sign up, click here--> www.binance.us MA Guide (All weekly for this post): 50 MA in Green. 100 MA in Yellow. 200 MA in Red. -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
NYSE:TWTRShort
by Deftsuo
6
Bullish S/R flip on Boeing, could rally higher. Boeing (BA) recently had a bullish S/R flip on the daily on top of a prior resistance zone around the 375-380 region. There remains a gap in the price action around 415, so that might be a possible target area. I am also watching the 400 level. This company has had a lot of bad news and bad publicity around it for some time, and in that, there might be opportunity for this to rally higher as I still think Boeing is a good fundamental company. -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress. Also, for any crypto traders out there, Binance just launched their US exchange (Binance US.) If you need a link to go sign up, click here--> www.binance.us
NYSE:BALong
by Deftsuo
Potential bear flag forming on Gold.Gold is currently forming what appears to be a bear flag formation on the daily. My other TradingView post on Gold was high-lighting a potential broadening top formation, but that has since been invalidated. On the daily chart, we can see there has been several attempts by Gold to push higher, but each attempt has been sold down resulting in some rather ugly daily wicks just under the 20 day moving average in Pink. I am now seeing a bear flag forming with a measured move to the 1430-1440 prior resistance zone which should now act as new support. -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress. Also, for any crypto traders out there, Binance just launched their US exchange (Binance US.) If you need a link to go sign up, click here--> www.binance.us
TVC:GOLDShort
by Deftsuo
Bear flag forming on AMZN; could head lower.Amazon (AMZN) is currently forming a bear flag formation. Price has been consolidating along the 200 day moving average, with downward pressure from the 50 day moving average. Watch for a break below the 200 day moving average that I have colored in Red. If that happens, Amazon could return to the 1560-1620 support zone, as the measured move of the bear flag lands the price close to that region. MA Guide (All daily for this post): 50 day MA in Green. 200 day MA in Red. -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress. Also, for any crypto traders out there, Binance just launched their US exchange (Binance US.) If you need a link to go sign up, click here--> www.binance.us
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by Deftsuo