Education: Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR)ICEUS:KC1!
I learned a handy tool used to manage risk under certain circumstances - the Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR)
In this example, I actually fade the 3DTSR, but being able to execute different styles of trading strategies reflects an understanding of them, while acknowledging that no system or strategy used in markets will be perfect.
Three Day Trailing Stop Rule:
There is one initial criteria for the 3DTSR to become active -
Either
Upon Pattern Breakout - to limit initial risk/add to position at lower relative risk
OR
Upon Reaching 70% of Target from Breakout as a Trailing Stop
In an Uptrend, to exit a position using the 3DTSR
Day 1 is the High Day, defined by a new price high - at this point, we are not aware of the setup
Day 2 is the Setup Day, defined by a closing price (end of day) that is below the low of Day 1 - at this point, the trigger is active
Day 3 is the Trigger Day, as the stop is placed below the low of Day 2
The 3DTSR can also be used as an entry strategy, as shown in the chart here.
Day 1 = High Day
Day 2 = Setup Day, where price closed below the low of Day 1
Instead of placing a stop below the low of day 2, here I fade the 3DTSR by ADDING to a long coffee position, and jamming the stop to below the low of Day 2
Day 3 = The low of Day 2, or the trigger, is never penetrated, and price opens a cent higher
If using the Trigger as a stop, or below the low of Day 2, and using the Triangle shown to imply a measured target, this is a whopping 20 to 1 trade setup.
Do you have any profitable trading systems or strategies?
Trailingstop
SNAP: How to proceed in this post-earnings?Hello traders and investors! Thanks to the earnings report , SNAP is flying today. But how to proceed when this happens? Is it time to buy, to sell, to go short, or just do nothing? The charts will give us an answer.
If you are in SNAP, I always advise to book at least half of your profits in a day like today, just in case, and then set a technical stop-gain . On SNAP, the technical stop-gain is below the $ 73.59, as this point was the previous All-Time High, and it is supposed to work as a support in the future.
In the next week I would just set a trailing stop-gain under the previous day’s low. If SNAP keeps going up, that’s great. If it drops, then ok, time to exit.
Is there any chance that it’ll fill this gap? Yes, but I find this unlikely, at least for now. This is a Breakaway Gap enhanced by the earnings report, and SNAP did a breakout from the ATH by doing this gap (I like to call this Monster Gap ). The last time this happened on SNAP the momentum was so strong that it prevented even a pullback. Let’s remind SNAP on October 2020:
What could happen on SNAP right now, if it can’t keep pushing up, is a sideways correction , until the 21 ema catches up with the price again in a few weeks, to offer us a new support level on SNAP.
If I were out and wanted to buy SNAP, I wouldn’t count on a pullback, but I would wait for it to cool down a little bit more, and for the Risk/Reward ratio to make sense again. If I buy right now, it would feel like I would be buying from someone who bought at the last dip, and will use me to book profits.
Eventually, the 21 ema will get closer to the price, and we’ll see a good opportunity then. For now, as someone who’s out, I’ll just stay out. There are many more interesting stocks around.
Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies, and if you liked this idea, please, support it!
Have a good weekend!
How To: Trade the Trend with Trailing Stop Losses.Quanta provides infrastructure solutions to the electric power, oil and gas, and communication industries and has been consistently making higher highs since its March lows last year as part of the Covid reset and has been trending beautifully with relatively little volatility.
The whole idea of trend trading is to try and find a trending stock like this one and stay in the trend as long as possible until that dreaded bend in the end where a stock will often sell off.
One of the ways to do this is with a trailing stop loss .
A trailing stop is a great conditional order type as your stop loss will continue to move up and maintain a set distance from the stocks highs as the stock price moves up, but it will never move down if the price moves down. So while the stock is going up, you will stay in the trade, but if there is a significant dip it will automatically exit you out. A good set and forget type strategy that works well if you aren't actively monitoring the market and want to protect your profits.
In this case Quanta is up 200% over the last 12 months, and up over 300% since the March lows. If you had wanted to keep it since the March lows you would have needed a stop loss of around 25%, but you can see that more recently now that some of the market uncertainty has reduced a 13% trail would keep you in the stock.
It's good to see that the stock is also respecting its 20 day moving average and using it largely as support as it trends upwards and these are often an easy way to keep an eye on whether the stock keeps moving up or whether there might be a down turn ahead.
Quanta has just had earnings and still looks pretty strong. Will be interesting to see how long it will run for.
Worth a watch.
A 25% stop loss would have kept you in the trade longer, but has much more downside before it would exit you out of the trade.
TA Won't Save You, Automation WillI'm sharing my TA here mostly for learning purposes. I'm learning hard lessons with my own money.
Yesterday i perfectly timed the last bounce within the bearish flag. Price went up as i predicted, however u-turned back down and hit so hard and so fast while i was asleep.
Luckily, i've set a stop loss on the hourly close of the bottom of triangle at 53308.92. This meant my perfectly timed previous trade went busted and i had to swallow the loss.
But, look at the price level now at $48.400. Had i not swalled that little loss, i could have been rekt now! Who could imagine this huge drop in just a matter of hours, slashing $50.996.15 in a snap.
I might have not set a stop loss yesterday and got caught in this huge drop. Luckily i did. But more importantly i'm also using a trailing stop loss indicator, which calculates the stop loss continuously. If optimized correctly it will save you big time.
Look at this one hour chart. The sell signal triggered one day before the so called blackout. Someone was selling before the drop and indicator did not miss it.
This indicator is Twin Optimized Tracker by Anıl Özekşi and published by Kivanc Ozbilgic on TradingView.
My TA saved me from this drop and the one before. But OTT would have saved me even earlier with prace of mind. Now i'm just waiting for OTT to put me back in the game.
And one more thing,
I have connected this indicator to my 3commas DCA bot. It will put me back in the game even when i'm sleeping. I don't need to do more TA work in order to figure out where the next dip is.
I'll enjoy my brunch now!
AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES - Bollinger Breakout Above Resistance AreaWith the global semi conductor shortage I thought I would have a bit of a look around at some of the equipment suppliers and see if any of them were looking interesting.
From their website: At Axcelis, we have a single goal: to help semiconductor manufacturers achieve the highest quality and yield, with the lowest cost of ownership. We deliver on that goal with ion implant platforms based on unique enabling technologies that provide unmatched purity, precision and productivity. The result: competitive advantage for our customers—and rapid growth for Axcelis. (Source: www.axcelis.com)
So why do I like Axcelis.
I thought for the fun of it I would give a bit more insight into what I look at. I can do all of the below in one quick glance at the chart and don't need to use most of the indicators, but they are nice for confirmation.
I found Axcelis by using the TradingView Screener to look for Bollinger breakouts with higher than normal volume.
The upper and lower Bollingers are starting to move apart indicating growing momentum.
They are up 217% year to date showing positive momentum and investor belief in the business.
They have broken out above a previous significant resistance area.
The middle Bollinger line (20 period moving average) is horizontal, showing price has been stable moving sideways for a while consolidating and building a good base.
The RSI is moving up through 60 showing momentum and still at a good value area.
The recent volume is significantly higher than its 14 day moving average - so much higher than normal.
The On Balance Volume is moving away from its 14 day moving average showing buyers are currently in control and building.
The MACD has crossed up and is accelerating away from its signal line - and the histogram is building a darker green hill also showing momentum.
It is past earnings so I don't have to worry about earnings surprises.
I have read their about us on their website twice and I still don't know what they do - so must be high tech :)
Craaaazy people might look at the chart and call it a double-bottom or a W pattern which is often bullish.
Best of all it is up 1.7% in the pre-market confirming most of the above.
On the downside, there is always a chance that the price will pull back to re-test the former resistance line and perhaps re-run from there.
As such I would put a stop loss a bit below that and see how it all goes. If it ran for a while I would move to a 17% Trailing Stop Loss to it to hang onto it for a while.
Fingers crossed.
Hope the above was useful. Comment like if so :)
AAL: Anxious about it? Here's how to proceed!Hello traders and investors! Let’s analyze AAL again! In this analysis, I’ll share some exit strategies you can use on it.
Ok, as we have been saying since my first analysis, in the end of January, AAL finally hit its natural target at $ 22.80, and it is trading even above it today! My analyses on AAL were all public, and the link to them are below this post, if you are curious.
How to proceed now? Well, it is not a buy opportunity at all. Now it is time for those who bought it under $ 17 start to think about booking their profits. Since it defeated the target at $ 22.80, this could be your stop-gain , and if AAL loses this support, then you may sell it. Another key point is the previous gap, which we still don’t know its type. If it is an Exhaustion Gap , it’ll be filled quickly, today or tomorrow, indicating a sharper pullback ahead. Use it in your favor too.
Or, if you have the stomach for it, wait for a clear reversal sign , like a lower high/low to book your profits, and buy it back when it hits the 21 ema in the daily chart. Speaking of daily chart:
Another exit strategy is a trailing stop , and you may book your profits if AAL loses the previous day’s low. For instance, if tomorrow it loses the $ 24.21 (today’s low, so far), then just sell it.
Again, pullbacks are opportunities to buy when a stock is in a clear bull trend. Don’t buy now, near a top level, and if you want to buy, wait for it to get closer to the 21 ema or one of its supports again.
And if you liked this analysis, please, support it with your like ! And remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies.
Thank you very much.
DOT/USDT - Bull run on the wayBlue line of Komodo Trails look solid, this indicate the trend is strong enough to breakout fibo 0.382, and there is a signal to buy with Sideway Bullish indication. if the trend not strong enough to break fibo 0.382, it will hit the yellow line of Komodo Trails, which is strong support area. this might be it. buckle up. BINANCE:DOTUSDT
DISCLAIMER,
This is not a financial advice, suggestion, nor decision you should follow,
Calculate and analyze everything again before making a decision to entry a position.
Do it with your own risk.
AUD/NZD short. Trend continuationFX:AUDNZD trend continuation trade. The FX:AUDNZD has been making lower lows and in a downtrend for the past 3 months. The most recent breakout to the downside and now retest makes for a good entry. After 1R is hit (candle closes below line), move stop loss to break even. If 2R is hit, move SL to 1R and so on. If the first stop loss line is broken by a candle then close trade. Risking 2% of the account per each trade.
Make it happen, never quit.
MR
NIO: Some Key Points and Strategies you can use!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how NIO is doing today!
Well, NIO triggered the pivot point at $ 39.74 (black line), which we discussed yesterday, and it is going up, as expected. Now, since the $ 39.74 was a previous resistance, now it is supposed to work as a support, according to the Principle of Polarity .
But if NIO loses the $ 39.74, the bull trend will start to get weaker . The 21 ema could hold the price, but I wouldn’t count too much on that. The Support Zone (blue area) seems to be a more reliable support in the short-term. But so far, NIO is still engaged in a bull trend, and it didn’t lose any of its supports.
Now, let’s take a look at the daily chart:
The daily chart suggests that a sharper pullback could occur, and this wouldn’t ruin the bull trend at all. It could hit the 21 ema again, or even the $ 29.40, which was a previous resistance, and the momentum would still be bullish. In a bull trend, pullbacks are opportunities to buy at a cheaper price, and to get into a safer trade, with an enhanced Risk/Reward ratio.
The volume is consistent, and although a pullback would be very good for everyone, there are no signs that this is going to happen in the short or mid-term. Instead of setting a target, I would use some exit strategy on NIO. This way I would still be on it as long as the trend continues.
For instance, if I were on NIO, and if I were afraid of pullbacks, I would just set a trailing stop at the previous day’s low. Meaning that right now, I would set a sell order at $ 38.25 , and would only buy back when it hits the 21 ema. Or you may just set your stop under the black line in the hourly chart.
These are the key points for NIO, and if you liked this analysis, please, support it ! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. I’m sure you’ll find something helpful around here.
Have a great weekend!
Demo: SuperTrail - 5 minute candle and 5% trail on a 1500% stockCouple of people have asked if they can use the SuperTrail indicator to day trade and the answer is yes so figured I'd make this video showing how it would work on a smaller time frame on a more volatile stock.
PM8:ASX - PENSANA RARE EARTHS - Up 580% YTDPensana is looking to become the world’s newest and first sustainable supplier of critical magnet metal rare earths. With backing from the Angola government and pressure around the world to find sources outside of China for rare earth minerals, Pensana could be worth a watch.
About Pensana Rare Earths Plc
Pensana is a rapidly growing sustainable resources company with shares trading on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market for listed securities (PRE:LSE) and on the Australian Stock Exchange (PM8:ASX).
Pensana is looking to bring online the world’s first major rare earth mine for over a decade at a time of burgeoning demand for critical magnet metals from electric vehicles and offshore wind turbines. It is looking to develop its Longonjo project, one of the world’s largest magnet metal rare earth deposits, located in infrastructure rich Angola, as a major new sustainable supply of rare earths critical to a range of industries and technologies that are vital to the green economy and to supporting the global Energy Transition to a lower carbon future.
As the Angolan government continues to diversify its economy away from oil and gas and diamonds and to develop its agriculture, tourism and mining sectors, Longonjo is the flagship mining project and is receiving strong support both within the community and from government at all levels. The Company has ongoing consultation with the local community and elected authorities and is working closely with them to ensure that the benefits of the project in terms of training, jobs and broad community support meet the aspirations of as many stakeholders as possible. As the Company continues on its path to building one of the world’s lowest carbon footprint mines it also strives to be a trusted partner for its employees, stakeholders and the communities where it operates.
The Pensana team is particularly passionate about developing young Angolan professionals, especially women in STEM, engaging responsibly with the environment and broad social engagement with the local community. Across the Company, at every level, the Pensana team is committed to sustainable value creation and to the advancement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The project is being planned to the highest ESG standards and the Company is conducting a detailed assessment of the appropriate international ESG standards, initiatives and reporting frameworks to adopt to ensure the Company remains best in class as the project moves into the development phase.
With Presidential approval for the mining licence and strong financial backing from FSDEA the Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund which now holds a 23% stake in the company, Pensana is in a strong position to bring the project online as the world’s first sustainable supplier of critical magnet metal rare earths.
Source: Pensana Corporate News
CLV:ASX - CLEARVUE TECHNOLOGIES - Glass into Solar PanelsI like the idea that ClearVue Technologies produces clear glass that generates electricity as well as that they are happy to grow their business through licencing and royalty payments (I've been watching too much of Kevin O'Leary aka Mr Wonderful on Shark Tank). Looking at all the sky scrapers and buildings in modern cities you know at some stage they will all become giant solar arrays. Up just under 500% since their March lows, but still a long way way from their previous all time highs I like the idea. They just need some more sales on the board. Could be worth a watch.
8089:TSE - NICE CORPORATION - 100% run on a 10% trail.Nice Corporation imports, distributes, and sells building materials for housing in Japan and internationally. Super smooth chart and a consistent gainer. Has finally had another pull back into a slightly better value area. One to watch if it resumes its run.
CRWD:NASDAQ - CROWDSTRIKE - Data security up 300% since MarchCrowdstrike basically helps businesses defend against hacking, viruses, and other data incursions - a pretty hot space at the moment. Looks like it is through its recent resistance areas powered by earnings and after a pullback with the wider market. Could be worth a watch.
CLCT:NASDAQ - COLLECTORS UNIVERSE - 250% RunCollector Universe is a really weird one that I wouldn't have expected to run as strong as it is. How many people have collections they want to authenticate and track. Seems a lot must do. Might need a pullback to get back into value, but worth a watch.
AL3:ASX - AML3D - 3D Metal Printer - Up 320% since debutAL3 was pointed out to me by @zbfairlane here on TV. Company looks interesting. I would imagine the ability to be able to 3D print metal is definitely something we are going to see more and more of as opposed to the traditional making a cast and pouring, welding and shaping. If its anything like household 3D printing it should allow for some complex shapes and approaches in industrial design and manufacturing we perhaps haven't seen before. Had a big 10% pullback today on no news so could be a good entry area if interested. Worth a watch.