CMG, Chipotle Mexican Grill - Trailing StopNYSE:CMG
The head and shoulders is one of the most powerful trend reversal patterns.
If you add that it happens in companies that respect our parameters to enter and in which we like to further invest, and in this case also eat ;) then the only thing to do is to enter Long and ride the trend until the price action tells us to get out and wait for a new signal.
Technical Analysis + Money Management are the keys.
Good Trading to All!
Trailingstop
BABA, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - Trailing StopNYSE:BABA
The technical analysis pattern is made to search for the Entry Point, always on a statistical basis taken from backtesting.
We have analyzed all markets, equities, bonds, indexes, commodities, forex, cryptocurrency using instruments such as spot, ETF, futures, options and more.
Our conclusion is to focus only on a part of them because they are really profitable with drawdowns contained in the various models of money management.
BABA is one of the most capitalized companies in the market and we were waiting for a Long signal to enter this position.
Good trading at all!
Y, Alleghany Corp. - Trailing StopNYSE:Y
Continue our trailing stop on Alleghany Corporation, in which we are in any case at profit.
These trades can drastically change the results over the years, and consequently the trading account, especially due to the compounding effect year after year. Do you know it?
Do you know traders like Paul Tudor Jones, Shelby Davis, George Soros, John Paulson, Richard Dennis, Nick Leeson, Ed Seykota and many others?
More or less, they started out with modest capital and the constancy and systematic nature of their operations has led them to unthinkable performance.
Patience is one of the main virtues of every trader. If you want to make fast and consistent profits you will probably end up like most.
Good Trading at All!
EQH, AXA Equitable Holdings Inc. - Trailing StopNYSE:EQH
This is one of our open positions where we have not yet moved the stop loss because the last high of the bullish trend has not brokenout.
Our operation from the point of view of stock market analysis is mainly to search for resistance levels, for example ascending triangles, rectangles, cup & handle, etc..
What we do is the result of years and years of operations, errors, corrections and study of price action in past decades, and thanks to this we are able to get the performance that we set every year depending on the performance of benchmarking.
Invest in the study, have mentors follow you, and don't waste time searching for the winning strategy.
Good trading at all!
Journal analysis: Looking at my past gamblesOnly 1 way to get anywhere...
Time to look at some trades I posted, going to focus mostly on the exit. Most important part, that's when you make (or lose) money.
There are a couple of ideas marked "short/long" on 3D & W charts, these are not trades I took or intended on taking, it's a general bias idea.
Maybe I should not tag "long" and "short" so they are more easy to filter...
05 September: CHFJPY
Original idea:
Outcome:
A loser, and didn't miss much. Lots of buying pressure. The reversal area was correctly identified thought.
Not much to trail here...
10 September: EURJPY
Original idea:
Outcome:
Kinda repeated what I did on CHFJPY...
12 September: Gold
Original idea:
Had 11 losers in a row, was aiming for 12. Get ready to get big losing streaks if you go for RR of 5, 10+.
Outcome:
I am keeping it in the back of my head, but I don't think there is much to learn from that specific trade.
More generally there is something to learn, that when the recession is looking close, and there is an uptrend and great news catalysts, and on the weekly/monthly chart we broke out of accumulation and are going up; then buys are a good idea.
12 September: USDCHF
Original idea:
"Watch me end my losing spree live"
Normally I won't post a trade way after I entered and it went my way, but this was ending my lose spree I wanted to...
Outcome:
Conclusion: Well don't try running winners in choppy markets (if you even can trade them). Nothing much else...
16 September: NatGas
Original idea:
Outcome: Not sure how to explain that one without swearing. I'll use a little monkey emoji instead.
Need to look at Oil:
Of course in this case, EMAs cannot be used to trail... It makes no sense...
It did not go much higher and went way down. I can't see H4 & H1. Probably would end up a 5R to 10R.
There is alot of fear and uncertainty in these events, possible price just has some wild sudden moves in 1 direction.
So ye, no opportunity for a very large winner, but still a great 5R in 5 days with what I think are high odds.
18 September: USDMXN
Original idea:
Outcome:
I got kicked out early, as price was retracing alot several times before the rising wedge broke bullish.
Only got 1R out...
If I waited for 3 or 4 R before trailing my stop I'd catch the move.
Was hard to stay in this one I find, but maybe I should risk it, and wait for at least 3-4 R before trailing my stop.
Usually I do...
18 September: Dow Jones & Dax
Original idea:
Uh, another winner, I did not take the shot thought.
Hmmm ok great. Had a winner that would have almost entirely paid for my entire losing spree by itself (if I managed it perfectly and also went into the right indice which would not have happened).
Bummer. Had alot of winners at around the same time during that period I remember, then back to lose spree ^^.
---- Checking my log I had 15 trades that were trades I lost, missed, broke even, small winners. But mostly losses ;)
Going to fast forward or this post will never end.
- 1 exception I want to look at thought, from this idea:
Lost on GBPCHF, went the other way, then in an update Imentionned I went short GBPJPY
Stopped at the top then it went my way, very much. Pretty fun.
Also going to skip those recent yen pairs. USDJPY going down of course ahah.
CHFJPY and EURJPY, same as on the 5 september. I shorted vertical candles.
No waves, just a straight candle. And lost. Again.
I want to look at a complicated BitconnectCoin trade a while ago...
Shorting Bitcoin is not rewarding. Bears should be buyers too.
I don't recommend shorting it honestly, expect when it breaks down vertically, very short term trades.
I keep repeating this lol. For 1 year now.
No one ever listens so I'll keep repeating it.
It moves exponentially... So obvious. Bulls think they have discovered something...
So obvious it hurts.
What to learn here is (apart from that pennants work wonders), just set a buy order on a predetermined price,
and it will get filled by a vertical candle...
Have to short on Bitmex as a hedge or (*0) to be flat... Really sucks. Have to be around the PC. (Because bitmex is all in btc not stable currencies).
OR use Kraken/etc buuut if you use leverage and your stop gets ignored, go enjoy.
Great, by analysing Bitcoin, I have convinced myself once again that it sucked and I didn't like it. Not on my timeframes.
09 October: EURGBP & GBPNZD
Original idea:
Outcome:
No central bank meeting/release all week.
Is giving back 1-2 R on most winners to get 20R once in a while worth it?
YES! Well has to happen at least 10% of the time...
Those 20R are just insane. Arrr I feel like a pirate. Because I found a treasure.
Staying in a winner, nothing feels better. You just need 1 big winner and you are so done.
On higher timeframes think about the people that bought Bitcoin here and stayed in until perfect exit:
Say they're a long term trader. Let's try finding something that makes some sense.
Another example:
Well in general I have a whole lot of small losers, really tons of those, a few small winners (they are pointless, I need to keep trying to have as little of those as possible they really are pointless), a few ~5R, and the 10-20 or even more R is super rare but the rare time it happens my account takes a huge leap. Worth giving up some on 5Rs to get these huge winners once in a while. 5Rs almost feel as "meh" "they're just small winners that cancel themselves out with the losers".
Trailing Stop or Trailing Take ProfitCase scenario: Short Position based on a moving average crossing
Stop Loss 0.50%
Take Profit 0.50%
Trailing Stop 0.41%
Trailing Take Profit 0.41%
Using a Trailing Take Profit of 0.41% that gets activated at the Take Profit level of 0.50% results in locking in the profit with minimal risk of closing the position too soon.
A Trailing Stop used with the same 0.41% trailing distance results in a high risk of closing a potentially profitable position too soon.
In this example, the position was almost closed at a loss by the 0.41% Trailing Stop .
Both TS and TTP are good tools to close a position. Using a Trailing Stop with a higher trailing distance, as well as a Trailing Take Profit , should improve our odds of getting that profit.
NGF2020, Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Jan 2020 - Trailing StopNYMEX:NGF2020
Futures are instruments that we regularly trade both on individual futures and on a combination of futures via a spread.
On all commodities we monitor the charts and set our alerts for possible breakouts.
In this case we are in trailing stop on the January futures of Natural Gas and we moved already our stop loss becoming stop profit with at least almost a 300% on our allocated capital.
You should always calculate the size of your position based on the value of a Unit Move, in this case $42,000.
So always be careful if you can afford this type of trade by calculating the difference between your entry point and stop loss.
And not of less importance is as always the strict discipline for your risk management.
www.barchart.com
ED, Edward Lifescences Corp. - Trailing Stop, RR, %ProfitabilityNYSE:EW
Does the technical analysis work?
Look at this!
The important thing is to let the profits run and quickly cut the losses when the trend turns against you.
How would your account behave after 100 trades if 6/10 make a loss and 4/10 make a profit? The answer in the Risk Reward is how much you earn when the trade makes a profit, and that's where the difference is made, i.e. compensating for all losses and creating profits on the long run.
In addition to this, you must also decide on risk management so that your maximum exposure is appropriate for your risk profile, and does not result in heavy drawdowns to suffer and possibly irrecoverable.
600276, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co. Ltd. - Trailing StopSSE:600276
Most traders lose money.
Why?
Precisely because rather than simplify their way of operating and be as disciplined as possible, seek solutions that are apparently very technical and professional with the help of indicators and oscillators, and put them on the chart making it very complex and cool to the eye.
The reality in economic terms is negative in the end, however, and so why want to persist in continuing in this way?
Boys simplify your operations and be very strict with yourself, without trying to predict, and work with the statistics in your favor.
Math is the key to profitable trading.
Stay Tuned!
GC, Gold Futures - Technical Analysis and Trailing StopCOMEX:GC1!
People, is gold still a good investment? What do you guess from the chart?
I would say to follow the trend between supply and demand and then decide whether to go Long or Short.
It always remains one of the most attractive assets for traders, investors and portfolio managers.
As you can see from the chart, the technical analysis made on this precious metal is clear and intuitable at a glance, so why not take advantage of this art to increase your net worth?
In the end, what is the use of gold for? Store of Value.
Another thing: keep Bitcoin under control, because it makes more sense than gold.
600276, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co. Ltd - Cup & HandleSSE:600276
Classic pattern, Cup & Handle, which in this case acts as a figure of continuation of the primary trend.
Let's take advantage of this breakout of resistance level.
Statistically as we know from our backtest based on our Entry Points, Stop Loss, Take Profit, we have a % positive realization of this trade equal to 35%.
MAA, Mid-America Apartment Communities - Trailing StopNYSE:MAA
We often read that technical analysis is foolish or that it's all bullshit and so on.
You know, at the end I started analyzing charts and graphs for months and at the end I realized that a statistic from the point of view of the realization of the trades is absolutely there.
What matters is where to position yourself, with how much to position yourself, where to go out in case things go in the opposite direction and when to bring home the profits.
I know what I'm doing because I created it, and so I already know statistically what to expect from my operations.
The only thing I always have to compare is my Backtest with my actual operation and analyze if my statistics correspond to my study of the past.
P.s. I do not consider fundamental and quantitative analysis to be wrong.
EXPN, Experian plc - Trailing Stop on Experian plcLSE:EXPN
You have to understand that even if most of the time your trade turns against you, when the trend moves in your favour, you have to manage your position disciplinarily.
Look in this trade as in the first operation we have succeeded in doubling the value of our position realizing exactly a good 200% on the allocated, and in the second operation we are still long currently with a profit not yet realized of 1000% and protected in case the trend begins a reversal or we suffered a heavy retracement.
If these were my only two trades to profit in the last ten, so would be the situation of my profits/losses:
2 profit trades = (1*200%) + (1*1000%)
-
8 trades at a loss = 8*100%
=
1200% - 800% = 400%
on allocated capital
This is perfect position management.
1177, Sino Biopharm - Trailing Stop after Breakingout on H&SHKEX:1177
Here too we continue to move the stop loss in trailing stop mode, until we reach our primary objective, that is Break Even Point, equal to the entry point plus commissions.
Remember that Risk Management and Position Sizing are the fundamental points to have a positive trading operation.
Strategy alone is not enough.
S&P / NZX 50 Index Gross - Risk RewardNZX:NZ50G
These trades are the ones that change your account tremendously.
You can trade with technical analysis, with fundamental analysis, with quantitative analysis.
What counts is having Risk Reward and Winrate that determine a positive Profit Factor on your strategies and therefore a growth on a statistical basis.
AMZN, Amazon.com Inc. - Potential Breakout on Ascending TriangleNASDAQ:AMZN
Setting bullish if it breakout level $2,500.
We are ready with alerts to ride the next trend on the world's #1 eCommerce company.
On the fundamentals we do not discuss, from the technical analysis we know the Risk/Reward and the %Profitability on this classic pattern.
Stay Tuned!
NESN, Nestlè N - Continuation Head & ShouldersSIX:NESN
Let's see how far we can go with the positions in Trailing Stop.
Current Risk Reward 7.53 / 1 in eight months.
This means about 1% of the account per month on a single position.
There are clearly closed positions with regular losses, but the important thing is to have a %profit and a Winrate that determine a positive "profit factor".
How can I be sure of what I do?
From the study of the past through Backtesting.
Now it's just a matter of having the discipline to follow my strategies and not getting caught up in fear and greed.
Remember that trading is MIND-SET
20% Knowledge
80% Psychology
"Rationality Yes, Emotivity No”
DHI, DR Horton Inc. - Head & Shoulders BreakoutNYSE:DHI
Typical pattern of reversal of a trend in financial markets. Entry on the breakout of the neckline and management of the trade in trailing stop for a greater possible risk reward. The question is, "Which Broker and which financial instruments could you trade best with?" In this case, I use stocks securing them through options. This is one of my strategies that I have in my trading plan, knowing the average return compared to the risk used.
Trading is not a way to make profits by risking enough, but rather to manage the risks in the best possible way by making big profits and small losses.
ANA, Acciona S.A. - Breakdown on Descending TriangleBME:ANA
Broken very well the support of this clear descending triangle. If we consider the height of this pattern the Risk Reward is 3.8/1 therefore seen the speed of the short positions with respect to the long ones, the return on the allocation is very fast if the target is reached.