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NYSE:CHGGLong
by DivergenceSeeker
1
JS-Masterclass #6: The Perfect Buy PointThe Perfect Buy Point A Perfect Buy Point represents the completion of a stock’s consolidation and the potential start of its next advance. After a base pattern has been established, the Perfect Buy Point is where the stock establishes a price level that will act as the trigger to enter a trade. When a stock’s price level moves through the Perfect Buy Point, there is a high probability that this represents the start of the next advancing phase. You can also call the Perfect Buy Point a “call to action” price level – it is the optimal buy point. In the context of a stock’s Volatility Contraction Pattern, a temporary pause (also called a base building process) allows you to set a buy stop to enter a trade. You want to buy as close to thePerfect Buy Point as possible without chasing the stock up more than 1.0%. In this context, the use of buy stop limit orders is recommended. As a solid consolidation process and the formation of a Volatility Contraction Pattern are needed before a Perfect Buy Point can occur, The Perfect Buy Point can also be considered as the line of least resistance. A stock can move very fast once it crosses this threshold. When a stock breaks through the line of least resistance, the probability is high that the price level will move much higher in a short period of time. This is the case because this represents an area where supply is low. Therefore, even a small amount of demand can move the stock higher. The importance of the Volume at the perfect Buy Point A Volatility Contraction Pattern is needed before a Perfect Buy Point can develop. As explained earlier, supply will stop coming to market at the ed of a valid Volatility Contraction Pattern. This is why we want to see the Volume significantly come down in the day or the couple of days before the Perfect Buy Point develops. Now, with only very little supply of stock in the market from sellers, even a small amount of buying can move the price up very rapidly as the price level moves through the Perfect Buy Point. In the ideal case, this move through the perfect Buy Point occurs under heavily increasing volume. This might be an indication that big institutions are putting their big money into the stock. When all of this comes together, you want to place the order as close to the Perfect Buy Point as possible. Always wait for the price level to move through the Perfect buy Point! Some traders will try to get in before the breach of the pivot point to save a few pennies on the trade. Assuming that a stock will break out is dangerous and the breakout may fail. Be patient! Remember Even if you respect all these technical requirements of a Perfect Buy Point, you will still get stopped out and incur losses. BUT: Trading is all about probabilities…respecting these rules will increase your probability to enter profitable trades and significantly outperform other traders and increase your chances to be consistently profitable in the market.
Education
by JS_TechTrading
2
JS-Masterclass #3: FundamentalsIn the recent tutorial 'Trading with the Trend - Stage Analysis', we have explained the importance of identifying stocks in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend using the 'Trend-Template'. What are the Fundamentals doing in a confirmed stage 2 Uptrend? The best stocks and buying opportunities available in the market meet the technical requirements according to Minervini's Trend-Template and have very healthy Fundamentals. Best Candidates - Growth - Accelerating EPS and Revenues - Explosive Market Position - Sustainable Trends - Scalable Business Model Worst Candidates - Capital Intensive - Limited Pricing Power - Heavily Regulated - Margin Pressure - Eroding Industry Position Watch out for these 3 key fundamentals – Earnings, Sales and Margins 1) Earnings in most recent 2-3 quarters +20% or more – the bigger the better; look for earnings acceleration – quarter to quarter sequential. Look at a 2 quarter average (up 20%) 2) Sales acceleration: sales increasing in most recent 2-3 quarters 3) Check profit margins – are they expanding or contracting? 4) Combination of sales and margins = earnings: gauge current growth versus 3-5 year growth rate (look for acceleration), Look for a breakout year How Do You Know if an Earnings Report is Really Great? 1. Results are better than the consensus of analysts’ estimates or, even better, earnings come in above the highest analyst estimate. Why? This will get the stock on the radar screens of big institutions. 2. The company raises its guidance for the upcoming quarter and the fiscal year significantly. 3. The stock price reacts positively to the earnings report and/or company issued guidance and resists meaningful profit taking over a number of days or weeks. 4. Analysts promptly raise estimates. (More than a 5% change from 30-days earlier is meaningful). 5. Revenue is reported above the consensus estimate (preferably above the highest estimate) and is also revised upward. 6. Earnings are “quality” – profit improvement comes from increased sales as opposed to a one-time gain or non-operating/non-recurring income. Keep in mind, cost cutting or “productivity enhancements” have a limited life span. 7. You can check Return on Equity to get an idea how good management is doing. You should compare this number to other companies in the same industry. 15-17% is a good cutoff for most stocks. Red Flags • Material earnings deceleration is a warning • Eroding margins is a warning • Positive earnings with negative sales – limited life span • A company showing strong earnings but not paying much in taxes is a red flag Even if you have found a stock with great Fundamentals: - Never trust the story - Never trust the numbers - Unless confirmed by price action
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Education
by JS_TechTrading
6
BTC Relief RALLYThanks for Reading my Post. I have made some 2 previous post both on AUDNZD and ADAUSD which by now if you are following me those 2 trades have generated some positives return after 2weeks.And if that will be positive for your portfolio I will advise understanding trading psychology, patience and discipline are great TOOLS every trader need to be in the successful rank. Please take note. To Dive down into the BUSINESS OF THE DAY I will like to Analyse some current price action in BTCUSD using some Technical Tools: 1. TRENDLINE 2.MOVING AVERAGES 3.CHART PATTERN 4.HARMONICS 5.PREVIOUS MONTHLY WEEKLY DAILY HIGH/LOW 6.ORDER BLOCKS 7.SUPPLY ZONE Currently the BTC has began a relief rally which may take us to $46000 per BTC and that maybe quite ambitious but before we see such prices from the low of about $33803 we may have some huge hiccups @ $43180/200 area. I have couple of confluences here ranging from: 1.A BAT HARMONIC PATTERN 2.COUPLE OF PREVIOUS MONTHLY HIGHS 3.SUPPLY ZONE 4.6HR 200EMA 5.ORDERBLOCKS which hasn't been tested since the last sell off around the 20th of JANUARY 6.Previous MONTHLY H/L 43283 and WEEKLY H/L43505 If the above is not enough to be cautious then I will say be prime and ready for this sell off which may take BTC back to retest $39400 area hypothetically and a renew test and hold of this zone may now give us the $46000 area. The way the market works in trend will also be cemented if we have such a drop to take out the weaker hands buyer who is buying with FOMO and give rise to a renewed buying. The BEARISH tone is currently subsided having broken the Down trendline as indicated in the chart and retest of the huge zone of $39400 level can be a quick or gradual surprise.Therefore if you are margin trading you can anticipate such move in the meantime. HAPPY TRADING and if you like what you read do not hesitate to give me a comment on your thought and BTC potential is still huge get involve in other ALTCOINS too.
Long
by LukmanBalogun