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⤴️⤴️ Gold vip) fullback up ⬆️)Hello trader’s what do you think about gold) ? Gold this week fullback up ⬆️ gold cpi news service 2024) down back up 2065) retest support 2030) And breakdown support levels fullback 2086) resistance levels) Looking 👀 H4 tame-frame🖼️ ⤴️⤴️ Looking 👀 3H tame frame 🖼️ ⤴️⤴️ Looking 👀 2H tame frame 🖼️ ⤴️⤴️ safe trade 🙏🙏❤️🩵 Plaes like 👍🏻 and comment’s)
TVC:GOLDLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
4
📊⤴️⤴️ EURUSD VIP BULLISH MOMENTUM LONG TRADE)⤴️⤴️📊Hello trader’s what do you think about eurusd)? dear traders I think 4H trand line this week Cpi news soo I think eurusd fullback resistance levels my Postens open 01.09000 Long trade) bullish momentum) Target 1.10357) Target 1.10837) Target 1.11657) GBP/USD remained consolidative on Thursday, bid just above 1.26 and offered just above its 10-DMA at 1.2707, as traders cogitate over U.S. and UK rate pivots later this year, looking toward Friday's payrolls data and next Thursday's CPI data for clues about the timing and depth of Fed rate cuts. For now, traders are reacting to Wednesday's slightly dovish Fed minutes, which noted prior rate hikes are having their intended effect reducing inflation and growth, and near-unanimity that rates will be lower by year-end 2024. Sterling traders' reluctance to move GBP/USD out of its 1.26-1.27 range hints at consensus that both the BoE and Fed are at peak rate levels. Though futures are pricing a near-80% chance the Fed will begin rate cuts in March 2024 (0#SRA:), ahead of the BoE expected in May 2024 (0#SON3:), the near-symmetrical rate paths foreseen for the two central banks in 2024 is keeping GBP/USD anchored near current levels. U.S. jobs data on Friday could disrupt the current GBP/USD rate stasis. Should payroll and earnings data surprise to the upside, a delay in Fed cuts is likely to weigh on GBP/USD, putting multiple support levels in the 1.2630s in sharper focus. FX:EURUSD
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
2
⤴️⤴️EURUSD BULLISH MOMENTUM Fullbacks)🚀🚀🚀The dollar edger higher on Friday but is set to end 2023 with its first yearly loss since 2020 against the euro and a basket of currencies, on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates next year as inflation moderates. Questions for 2024 will be when the Fed begins cuts, and whether the first rate reduction is made to avoid over-tightening as inflation drops, or due to slowing U.S. economic growth. With markets already pricing in aggressive cuts, debate is also focused on how much further the dollar is likely to fall. “We’ve already weakened quite a bit in anticipation of a Fed cut cycle to come,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York. The dollar's decline accelerated after the Fed adopted an unexpectedly dovish tone and forecast 75 basis points in rate reductions for 2024 at its December policy meeting. Markets are pricing in even more aggressive cuts, with the first reduction seen likely in March and 158 basis points in cuts expected by year-end. (FEDWATCH) The Fed’s tone contrasted with other major central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), which maintained they will hold rates higher for longer. But “I do think they will capitulate. European growth is just struggling too much and inflation’s coming down relatively fast … same in the U.K. in many ways,” said Bechtel. “If all three central banks are cutting, it's going to be very hard for the dollar to weaken significantly." Against a basket of currencies, the greenback on Friday gained 0.13% to 101.32 DXY , rising from a five-month trough of 100.61 reached on Thursday. It is on track to lose 2.10% this year and is down 4.62% this quarter, the worst performance in a year. The euro EURUSD dipped 0.19% to $1.1040, hovering just below a five-month peak of $1.11395 reached on Thursday. It is heading for a 3.04% gain for the year, its first positive year since 2020. "Markets are looking for a cut earlier in the U.S. and are less certain that the European Central Bank will cut as quickly, so that's why the dollar is very soft," said Niels Christensen, chief analyst at Nordea. "We also have positive risk appetite which is another negative for the dollar. Going into 2024, the soft dollar will be a theme towards the March central bank meetings," Christensen added. Policymakers at the ECB and the BoE did not signal any imminent rate cuts at their policy meetings this month, but traders are pricing in 162 bps of cuts by the ECB next year, with the probability of two cuts by April. The BoE is also expected to cut rates by 148 bps in 2024. "While it feels like the market might have moved too far too fast, the facts are that growth is non-existent in Europe, slowing in the U.S., and inflation is falling globally," said CJ Cowan, portfolio manager at Quilter Investors. "The ECB is famously slow to change policy course so almost two cuts priced by April looks aggressive, even if it might be the right thing to do." Sterling GBPUSD rose 0.08% to $1.2745 and was on track for a 5.39%
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
🚀⤴️⤴️GOLD FULLBACK 2100)⏫️hello trader’s what do you think about gold) gold fullbacks support levels 2047) Gold if breakoutdown and this weekend looks better news CPI trader’s 2047) support levels and gold mowing fullback 2100)resistance levels)my position 2047) lounges 2100) key levels 2080 key levels 2090 key levels 2100 Gold finished the year at $2,063 an ounce, climbing more than 13% in 2023 for its first annual gain in three years, and logging a new record high within the year mostly supported by expectations that the major central banks will start cutting interest rates early next year. After implementing an aggressive rate-hiking cycle that started in early 2022, the US Federal Reserve is now expected to begin easing as soon as next March amid signs that inflation in the US is cooling. Moreover, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of a prolonged war in Gaza spurred safe-haven demand for gold.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
⬆️🖼️. DOLLAR Index trade line bullish momentum analysis)⤴️⤴️Hello trader’s what do you think about DXY index )? traders are looking 👀 a 4H tame frame 🖼️ trade line dxy hitting support levels and trade line now dxy bak up ⬆️ 102.381 to 102.573) The dollar index fell to below 101 on Wednesday, the lowest in five months, as markets continued to position according to signs of cooling US inflation, and consequently, incoming rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Data released on Friday showed that the core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, fell to 3.2% in November from 3.4% in October, coming in below forecasts of 3.3%. Markets are now pricing in around a 90% chance that the central bank may start its cutting cycle by March. The dollar traded close to multi-month lows against other major currencies, but has been gaining ground versus the Chinese yuan amid expectations that the People’s Bank of China would lower key rates next
TVC:DXYLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
⤴️⤴️GPBUSD) bullish on the market) analysis)🖼️🚀The dollar crept higher on the first trading day of the year as attention turned to economic data this week that may provide clues on the Federal Reserve's next moves, while bitcoin surged ahead of $45,000 for the first time since April 2022. The dollar index DXY , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, fell 2% in 2023, snapping two years of gains. It was last at 101.44, up 0.059%, as investors weighed the prospect of the Fed cutting rates this year. The dollar's ascent weighed on the Japanese yen USDJPY the most, with the Asian currency down 0.35% at 141.36 per dollar, having slid 7% in 2023. Rescue teams in Japan on Tuesday struggled to reach isolated areas hit by a powerful earthquake on New Year's Day, with reports of more than 20 people dead in a disaster that toppled buildings and knocked out power to thousands of homes. Markets are now pricing in an 86% chance of interest rate cuts from the Fed to start from March, according to CME FedWatch tool, with over 150 basis points (bps) of easing anticipated in the year. "The question is when and how fast rate cuts will be delivered," Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said in a note. "Moderating price pressures and weaker growth impulses have seen the pendulum of market sentiment swing dramatically from the 'higher for longer' mantra of most of last year to pricing in aggressive easing" from central banks, Chandler said. The focus now switches to a slew of economic data due this week, including the data on job openings and nonfarm payrolls. Minutes from the last Fed meeting in December are scheduled for release on Thursday and will provide insight into the central bankers' thinking around rate cuts this year. "The positive sentiment from end-2023 may roll over into this week as all eyes turn to the U.S. jobs report on Friday," said Nicholas Chia, macro strategist at Standard Chartered. At its December policy meeting, the Fed adopted an unexpectedly dovish tone and forecast 75 basis points in rate reductions for 2024. That contrasted with other major central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), which reiterated they will hold rates higher for longer. Still, traders are pricing in 158 bps of cuts by the ECB this year, while the BoE is also expected to cut rates by 144 bps in 2024. The euro EURUSD was down 0.13% to $1.103, inching away from the five-month peak of $1.11395 it touched last week. The single currency gained 3% last year, its first yearly gain since 2020. Sterling GBPUSD was last at $1.2729, up 0.05% on the day, having clocked its strongest performance last year since 2017 with a 5% gain, although a weakening economy and election uncertainty make a repeat performance unlikely. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar AUDUSD was up 0.35% at $0.68335. The New Zealand dollar NZDUSD was little changed at $0.63155. The crypto world started the year with a bang, with bitcoin BTCUSD touching a 21-month peak of $45,532 on rising expectations that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission would soon approve exchange-traded spot bitcoin funds.
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
⬆️ EURGBP) BULLISH) analysis) ⬆️⬆️hello trader’s what do you think about Eurgbp)? The pound rose slightly on Friday as the dollar slipped while investors waited for data on the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation. Sterling GBPUSD was up 0.36% at $1.2736 and was set for a weekly gain of 0.45%. The euro EURUSD was down 0.26% against the pound at 86.55 pence. The pound has risen for five of the last six weeks against the dollar as investors have ramped up bets that the Fed will cut interest rates sharply next year after consumer price index inflation slowed to 3.1% in November. The November personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, the Fed's favoured measure of price pressures, is due at 1330 GMT on Friday. Data on Friday showed the UK economy shrank 0.1% in the third quarter of the year. Yet FX investors may have been paying more attention to separate figures that showed British retail sales jumped 1.3% in November, more than expected. "Today’s release provided some festive cheer for retailers," said Alex Kerr, assistant economist at Capital Economics. "But with higher interest rates still percolating throughout the economy, we doubt that there will be a continued rise in sales volumes early next year." In their 2024 outlooks, many strategists tipped the pound for a solid year on the basis the Bank of England would not be able to cut interest rates as much as the Fed or European Central Bank, making British bond yields more attractive. That idea was called into question earlier this week when data showed that UK inflation slowed to 3.9% in November, more than expected, from 4.6% in October. Investors think the BoE is likely to cut rates by 140 basis points next year, according to pricing in derivatives markets, up from about 120 bps at the start of the week. The dollar index DXY , which tracks the currency against six major peers, was last down 0.22% on Friday at 101.55.
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
2
⤵️ EURAUD) ifberakout) bearish) analysis)⤵️⤵️hello trader’s what do you think about Euraud)? The Australian and New Zealand dollars rested near five-month peaks on Friday and bonds extended their blistering rally as a surprisingly soft reading on U.S. inflation stoked wagers for rapid-fire rate cuts globally next year. The Aussie crested at $0.6803 AUDUSD , having climbed 1% the previous session to clear the $0.6800 barrier for the first time since late July. The break opened the way to the next bull target at the double top of $0.6895/6900. The kiwi dollar reached $0.6298 NZDUSD after rising 0.7% on Thursday, taking it closer to the July top of $0.6412. Risk appetite was whetted by an unexpected downward revision to the U.S. third-quarter core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index to an annualised 2.0%, matching the Federal Reserve's target. That stirred speculation the November reading of core PCE inflation due later Friday would also surprise on the downside, leading futures to imply an 82% chance the Fed would cut rates as soon as March. (FEDWATCH) Markets, in turn, ramped up expectations for local easing with futures now fully priced for a June rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), even though the central bank still has a tightening bias. (0#RBAWATCH) The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is now seen certain to ease in May, when it recently warned that no cuts were possible until 2025. (0#RBNZWATCH) Australia's November consumer price measure is not due until the end of January but again analysts see risks to the downside. "We expect annual growth in the monthly CPI indicator to slow to 4.1% y/y in November from 4.9% y/y in October," said Catherine Birch, a senior economist at ANZ. "This would be the weakest annual inflation on the monthly measure since January 2022." "We expect inflation, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, to be annualising within the RBA's 2-3% target band in the second half of 2024." Bond markets are acting like all this is a done deal and have taken three-year yields (AU3YT=RR) down to its lowest since early June at 3.667%. That breached a major chart barrier at 3.69% and was a world away from a 4.48% top hit in November. Yields on 10-year bonds AU10Y fell to a four-month trough of 4.04%, down from its November peak of 4.999%. In New Zealand, the key two-year swap rate (NZDSM3NB2Y=) hit its lowest since February at 4.680%, opening a huge gap to the overnight cash rate of 5.5%.
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
EURUSD) bearish on the market) analysis)💥💯💯The US dollar fell against its major trading partners early Thursday ahead of a trio of economic releases at 8:30 am ET. The third estimate of Q3 gross domestic product is scheduled for release at 8:30 am ET, at the same time as weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing reading for December. Later, the Conference Board's leading indicators report for November is due at 10:00 am ET, followed by weekly natural gas stocks data at 10:30 am ET and the Kansas City Fed's manufacturing reading at 11:00 am ET. A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Thursday: USDEUR rose to 1.0982 from 1.0943 at the Wednesday US close and 1.0937 at the same time Wednesday morning. There are no EU data on Thursday's calendar but European Central Bank policy board member Philip Lane is scheduled to speak at 11:00 am ET. The next ECB meeting is set for Jan. 25. GBPUSD rose to 1.2663 from 1.2639 at the Wednesday US close and 1.2655 at the same time Wednesday morning. The UK CBI distributive trade survey showed expectations of a large contraction in retail spending in December, data released overnight showed. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Feb. 1. USDJPY fell to 142.6838 from 143.5636 at Wednesday US close and 143.4100 at the same time Wednesday morning. There were no Japanese data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for Jan. 22-23. USDCAD fell to 1.3343 from 1.3368 at the Wednesday US close but was up from a level of 1.3338 at the same time Wednesday morning. Canada retail sales and average weekly earnings data for October are scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET. The next Bank of Canada meeting is set for Jan. 24.
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
GBPJPY) 4H) tame frame ) analysis)Speculation about when the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has been rife, but seen as more likely to come in January than December. Price action in JPY-related FX option markets isn't offering many clues, with increased demand and high volatility risk premiums for both meetings, and also for a speech by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Dec. 25. Deutsche shares sentiment with other banks who expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its current monetary policy framework in December, while hinting at an end to the NIRP at its Jan. 23 meeting. Deutsche attribute a 60% probability to hints being made. In terms of fundamentals, Deutsche believe that ending NIRP in January is appropriate because the forecast in the outlook report will change since the data already imply a virtuous circle in wages and prices. In terms of practicalities, it is because financial institutions would have sufficient time to prepare for it. Deutsche suspect that the BoJ will hint at the upcoming policy revision by including some key points in its statement; that it will assess and confirm the virtual circle between wages and prices by the January meeting, with the results to be published at the same time as the outlook report; and that, as a result of this assessment, the policy revision will be judged appropriate and it will continue to emphasize an accommodative policy stance and stable JGB markets even after the revision. Overnight expiry FXO implied volatility
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
2