ETHEREUM at Major Support: Bullish Rally Incoming?COINBASE:ETHUSD is on the verge of a major move. The price has reached a key support level that has historically triggered strong buying interest. This zone has acted as a demand area multiple times, increasing the likelihood of a bullish reaction if buyers step in once again.
The market structure suggests that a confirmed bounce from this level could ignite a significant recovery. If bulls hold the support, the first upside target is $2,400, which represents a logical target for this setup. However, a sustained breakout beyond $2,400 could mark the beginning of a stronger rally, fueled by renewed buying momentum and increasing volume.
Given the prolonged bearish move leading into this setup, a retracement here could turn into a larger trend shift. However, a clean breakdown below support would invalidate this bullish bias and open the door for further downside.
🚀 If this rally takes off, we could see COINBASE:ETHUSD reclaiming higher levels in the coming weeks. What are your thoughts? Drop them in the comments! 🚀
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Stock Market Dives into Correction? It Happens—Here's What to DoYou wake up, check your portfolio, and see a sea of red. The market’s down, your stocks are taking a nosedive, and CNBC is running apocalyptic headlines about an impending crash. Sounds familiar?
It’s maybe because we’re in (or super close to) a correction right now — the S&P 500 SP:SPX was down 10% from its record high two weeks ago and a lot of people are unsure what to do.
The truth of the matter is, stock market corrections are routine—not as often as the meeting that should’ve been an email, but also not as rare as a winning trade in the Japanese yen ( widow maker is real, yo ).
And, most importantly, they’re usually not as catastrophic as they feel in the moment.
So, before you hit the panic button (or worse, start revenge trading to “win it all back”), let’s talk about what’s shaking the market right now and how to navigate corrections like a pro.
🤔 First Things First: What’s a Correction?
A stock market correction is a drop of 10% or more from a recent high. It’s not a crash, it’s not the end of capitalism, and it’s definitely not a sign that you should liquidate your entire portfolio and move to a remote cabin in the woods.
Corrections happen regularly, typically once every year or two. They’re a natural part of market cycles, shaking out excessive speculation and resetting valuations to more reasonable levels.
For the record, a drop of 20% is considered a bear market.
🤝 Why the Market’s Getting Jittery
Markets don’t move in straight lines, and sometimes they hit turbulence. Lately, two big themes have been dominating headlines:
Trump’s Hard-Line Tariffs Hit Hard (And Markets Are Nervous About It)
If there’s anything Trump knows how to do is say things online or on-site and move markets. And his hostile and straight up combatant approach to handling international relations has sent traders scrambling to offload risk.
With hiked tariffs on China, Europe, and Mexico and Canada, businesses are bracing for severe supply chain disruptions, higher costs, and tighter margins. When tariffs go up, corporate earnings tend to go down—and the market doesn’t like that math.
Inflation Just Won’t Quit
The Federal Reserve spent most of the last two years trying to tame inflation, and just when it seemed like things were cooling off, it’s creeping back up. The latest readout of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report showed prices ticked up more than expected at 2.8% in February.
Higher inflation means the Fed might keep interest rates elevated for longer than expected, making borrowing more expensive and slowing down growth. Every new inflation release has investors guessing: Will the Fed cut rates, hold steady, or—worst case—hike again?
Between trade wars and stubborn inflation, uncertainty is running high, and that dynamics breeds volatility. But a correction doesn’t mean the market is broken—it just means sentiment has shifted.
⚠️ How NOT to React (aka: Rookie Mistakes to Avoid)
When corrections hit, bad decision-making is at an all-time high. Here’s what not to do:
Panic selling – Selling at the bottom is a classic rookie move. If you weren’t planning to sell at the highs, why dump everything when it’s down?
Trying to time the exact bottom – Good luck. Nobody, not even Warren Buffett, can catch the bottom (not that he’s trying). If you’re waiting for the “perfect” dip, you’ll likely miss the rebound.
Going all-in on one asset – Thinking of putting everything into one stock or crypto because it’s “cheap” now? Please don’t. Diversification exists for a reason .
Getting glued to financial news – Watching every market update during a correction is like doom-scrolling Google after a mild headache—you’ll only freak yourself out more.
Now that we’ve covered what not to do, let’s focus on the smart plays.
💪 So, What Should You Do?
If you want to come out of a correction with your sanity (and portfolio) intact, here’s your game plan:
1️⃣ Zoom Out—Corrections Are Temporary
The market moves in cycles, and corrections are just part of the game. Historically, corrections last a few months, while bull markets last years. If you’re investing for the long term, a correction is a blip on the chart, not an extinction event.
2️⃣ Review Your Portfolio Like a Hedge Fund Manager
Corrections are a great excuse to audit your holdings. Ask yourself:
Is this stock/ETF/index still worth holding?
Has anything fundamentally changed, or is this just temporary market noise?
Do I have too much exposure to one sector?
Think of it as spring cleaning for your investments. It's also an opportunity to make some good use of the handy Stock Screener or Stock Heatmap to spot the best (and worst) performers. If something was a FOMO buy and doesn’t belong in your portfolio, consider trimming it.
3️⃣ Buy Selectively, Not Blindly
Corrections create opportunities, but that doesn’t mean you should just throw money at every stock that’s down. Some companies deserve their declines ( looking at you, Nikola )—others are just collateral damage in a broader selloff.
Look for quality companies with strong earnings, manageable debt, and real growth potential. If they were solid before the correction, they’ll likely recover faster than the overhyped names.
Example: Remember when Amazon stock NASDAQ:AMZN tanked 90% in 2000, the dot-com bubble? No, because you were too busy being 2 years old instead of loading up on Jeff Bezos’s dream. And look where the guy’s now.
4️⃣ Do Some Good Old DCA
Instead of dumping all your cash into the market at once, use dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Buying in small increments at regular intervals helps you avoid the stress of trying to time the bottom. If prices drop further, you can buy more at an even better price.
5️⃣ Keep Emotions in Check
Corrections test your patience and discipline. The best investors don’t let fear dictate their strategy. If you’re getting emotional about your trades, step away from the screen and take a breath. The market will be there when you come back.
👍 The Market Always Bounces Back—Eventually
Every correction feels like the worst one while it’s happening. But let’s look at history:
The S&P 500 has faced 30+ corrections since 1950. It survived them all.
The average correction lasts four months before a recovery begins.
After a correction, markets typically rally higher within a year.
Unless you believe the global economy is permanently broken (hint: not yet, at least), every major downturn has eventually turned into a new bull run.
🦸♂ Final Thought: Be the Hero, Not the Victim
Market corrections separate the professionals from the wannabes. The people who panic and sell at the bottom? They usually regret it. The ones who keep a level head, stick to their strategy, and take advantage of good opportunities? They come out stronger.
And finally, if you need to take away one thing it’s this: Corrections aren’t the enemy. They’re the price of admission for long-term gains.
👉 Let’s hear it from you!
How do you handle corrections, what’s your strategy when the market is in a downturn and what’s in your portfolio then? Share your experience in the comment section!
Alibaba - Don't Forget Chinese Stocks Now!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) still remains super interesting:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After we saw the very expected parabolic rally on Alibaba about four months ago, Alibaba is now perfectly retesting major previous structure. Yes, we could see a short term pullback in the near future but this just offers a perfect break and retest after the rounding bottom pattern.
Levels to watch: $110, $140
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
A Closer Look at Bitcoin's Elliot Wave PatternHello friends, today we'll attempt to analyze the Bitcoin chart using Elliot Waves. Our approach will involve using Elliot Wave theory and structures, which involve multiple possibilities. The analysis we present here focuses on one potential scenario that seems possible to us.
Please note that this information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice or investment tips. There's a risk of being completely wrong, so never trade based solely on this post. We're not responsible for any profits or losses. Individuals should consult a financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.
Now, let's discuss the Bitcoin chart. On the daily chart, we can see that a black primary degree wave has completed its ((4th)) wave, and the ((5th)) wave has started. Within the fifth wave, an intermediate degree wave is unfolding, which will have its own set of waves (1), (2), (3), (4), (5). The primary black degree wave five will be complete once the intermediate degree wave is finished.
We've drawn accounts on the chart, illustrating the entire structure, including the nearest invalidation level at around $76,666 and the real invalidation level below $50,000.
I hope this analysis based on Elliot Wave theory has helped you understand the chart better and learn something new. Please keep in mind that this is for educational purposes only.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Smart Money Technique (SMT) Divergences - The Ultimate GuideIntroduction
SMT Divergences are a powerful concept used by professional traders to spot inefficiencies in the market. By comparing correlated assets, traders can identify hidden opportunities where one market shows strength while the other shows weakness. This guide will break down the major SMT divergences: EURUSD/GBPUSD, US100/US500, and XAUUSD/XAGUSD .
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What is SMT Divergence?
SMT Divergence occurs when two correlated assets do not move in sync, signaling potential liquidity grabs or market inefficiencies. These divergences can be used to confirm trend reversals, identify smart money movements, and improve trade precision.
Key Concepts:
- If one asset makes a higher high while the correlated asset fails to do so, this suggests potential weakness in the pair making the higher high.
- If one asset makes a lower low while the correlated asset does not, this suggests potential strength in the pair that did not make a lower low.
- Smart Money often exploits these inefficiencies to engineer liquidity hunts before moving price in the intended direction.
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EURUSD vs. GBPUSD SMT Divergence
These two forex pairs are highly correlated because both share the USD as the quote currency. However, when divergence occurs, it often signals liquidity manipulations.
How to Use:
- If GBPUSD makes a higher high but EURUSD does not, GBPUSD may be trapping breakout traders before reversing.
- If EURUSD makes a lower low but GBPUSD does not, EURUSD might be in a liquidity grab, signaling a potential reversal.
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US100 vs. US500 SMT Divergence
The NASDAQ (US100) and S&P 500 (US500) are both major indices with a strong correlation, but tech-heavy NASDAQ can sometimes lead or lag the S&P.
How to Use:
- If US100 makes a higher high but US500 does not, it suggests US100 is extended and may reverse soon.
- If US500 makes a lower low but US100 does not, US500 might be experiencing a liquidity grab before a reversal.
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XAUUSD vs. XAGUSD SMT Divergence
Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) have a historic correlation. However, due to differences in volatility and liquidity, they can diverge, presenting trading opportunities.
How to Use:
- If Gold makes a higher high but Silver does not, Gold might be overextended and ready to reverse.
- If Silver makes a lower low but Gold does not, Silver might be in a liquidity grab, signaling strength.
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Indicator Used for SMT Divergences
To simplify the process of identifying SMT divergences, this guide utilizes the TradingView indicator TehThomas ICT SMT Divergences . This tool automatically detects divergences between correlated assets, highlighting potential trade opportunities.
You can access the indicator here:
Why Use This Indicator?
- Automatically plots divergences, saving time on manual comparisons.
- Works across multiple asset classes (Forex, Indices, Metals, etc.).
- Helps traders spot Smart Money inefficiencies with ease.
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Final Tips for Trading SMT Divergences
1. Use Higher Timeframes for Confirmation: SMT Divergences on 1H or 4H hold more weight than those on lower timeframes.
2. Combine with Other Confluences: ICT concepts like Order Blocks, FVGs, or liquidity sweeps can strengthen the SMT setup.
3. Wait for Market Structure Confirmation: After spotting SMT divergence, look for a market structure shift before entering trades.
4. Be Mindful of Economic Events: Divergences can appear due to news releases, so always check the economic calendar.
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Conclusion
SMT Divergences are a valuable tool for traders looking to gain an edge in the markets. By analyzing inefficiencies between correlated assets, traders can anticipate smart money movements and improve trade precision. Practice spotting these divergences on real charts, and soon, you'll develop a keen eye for hidden liquidity traps.
Happy trading!
Diamond Pattern Trading: How to Spot and TradeSome patterns scream for attention, while others sneak up on traders who aren’t looking closely. The diamond pattern is one of those sneaky ones — a formation that hints at a brewing reversal but requires a sharp eye to catch.
Let’s dive into this pattern, how it forms, and the best strategies for effectively trading diamond top and bottom patterns.
What Is a Diamond Pattern?
The diamond pattern is a reversal chart pattern that occurs after a strong trend, indicating a potential shift in market direction. It forms when price action expands and then contracts, creating a diamond-shaped contour. This pattern is rare compared to triangles or head-and-shoulders formations, but it often signals significant price moves when it appears.
There Are Two Types of Diamond Patterns:
Diamond Top Pattern – A 🐻 Reversal Pattern That Appears After an Uptrend.
Diamond Bottom Pattern – A 🐂 Reversal Pattern That Forms After a Downtrend.
These patterns can help traders identify potential turning points and prepare for a change in trend.
How Can You Identify a Diamond Pattern in Trading?
To spot a diamond pattern trading setup, look for the following characteristics:
Broadening Formation: The price action initially expands, creating higher highs and lower lows.
Narrowing Structure: After the expansion, the price contracts, creating lower highs and higher lows.
Symmetrical Shape: When trendlines are drawn connecting the highs and lows, they create a diamond shape.
Breakout Point: The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out of the structure, either to the upside or downside.
While it might resemble a diamond quilt pattern or a diamond tile pattern on the chart, the key difference is its role as a market reversal signal.
Diamond Top Pattern: Bearish Reversal
A diamond top pattern forms at the peak of an uptrend and signals that bullish momentum is weakening. Traders often look for a downside breakout to confirm the reversal.
What Does a Diamond Top Pattern Typically Involve?
Identify the diamond formation after a strong uptrend.
Wait for a breakout below the lower trendline with increased volume.
Enter a short position once the breakout is confirmed.
Set a stop-loss above the recent high.
Target price: Measure the height of the pattern and project it downward.
This pattern suggests buyers are losing control, and a downtrend will likely follow.
📊 Diamond Top in Action
Between late 2024 and early 2025, Bitcoin surged toward $105,000. Following this uptrend, price action began to shift: the candles first spread wider, then started to tighten — ultimately forming what resembled a diamond top on the daily chart.
The pattern formed over several weeks, showing the hallmark structure: broad on the left,
symmetrical tightening on the right, with support and resistance lines converging.
Shortly after the narrowing phase was completed, Bitcoin broke downward — a typical outcome of a diamond top pattern. The price declined sharply over several days, validating the pattern and suggesting a broader correction.
Analysts watching the pattern noted that while it wasn’t perfectly symmetrical (as real-world patterns rarely are), the structure was clear enough to support the reversal thesis. The breakout marked a momentum shift as bullish pressure faded and sellers gained temporary control.
Following the initial drop, Bitcoin stabilized and began consolidating. This sideways movement is common after strong breakouts — reflecting indecision and market recalibration.
Diamond Bottom Pattern: Bullish Reversal
A diamond bottom pattern appears at the end of a downtrend, indicating a potential shift to bullish momentum.
How a Diamond Bottom Pattern Is Typically Interpreted
Identify the diamond shape forming after a downtrend.
Wait for an upside breakout above the upper trendline with substantial volume.
Enter a long position once the breakout is confirmed.
Set a stop-loss below the recent low.
Target price: Measure the pattern’s height and project it upward.
This pattern signals that selling pressure decreases, and buyers may take control.
Why the Diamond Pattern Is Important for Traders
Reliable Reversal Signal. The diamond pattern trading setup strongly indicates trend reversals.
Clear Entry and Exit Points. Well-defined breakout levels make risk management easier.
Works in Different Markets. The diamond pattern remains effective when trading stocks, forex, or crypto.
Final Thoughts
The diamond pattern is a rare but powerful tool that can help traders confidently spot trend reversals. Whether you’re trading a diamond top pattern for bearish setups or a diamond bottom pattern for bullish breakouts, understanding this formation can give you an edge in the market.
So, traders, have you spotted a diamond pattern trading setup recently? Share your experiences and strategies in the comments!
This analysis is performed on historical data, does not relate to current market conditions, is for educational purposes only, and is not a trading recommendation.
GameStop’s Bitcoin Bet Fails to Wow Traders. Can It Copy MSTR?GameStop NYSE:GME wants to jam Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD into its treasury. But isn’t that a risky move that threatens to derail the video-game retailer’s finances? With $1.3 billion on the line, GameStop’s pivot to Bitcoin in efforts to revive its flagging share price may make things even worse. Let’s talk about that.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. After a couple months of speculation, traders’ suspicions turned out correct — GameStop is indeed adding Bitcoin on its balance sheet .
The company confirmed the plan in its quarterly earnings update released last week. That was all good — shares jumped 8% on the news and closed the cash session higher by 12%.
But these solid gains were not only wiped out — traders doubled down on the selling pressure when the shares crashed 23% a day later because GameStop unveiled a scary figure.
To make Bitcoin a treasury reserve asset, GameStop said it is seeking to sell $1.3 billion of convertible bonds , which will be used “for general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of Bitcoin in a manner consistent with GameStop’s Investment Policy.”
What do these convertible bonds do? They’re essentially papers that certify you’ve given the company a loan. Usually, they come bearing some nice guaranteed yield, but in this case, the yield is exactly 0.00%.
Another string attached to GameStop's bonds is that they are due in 2030 and you can choose to convert them into shares, each with a price tag of $28.46, or you can take them out in cash. That’s one reason why the stock tanked last week — not too favorable conditions.
Another one, and perhaps a bigger worry for investors, is that GameStop’s net income will no longer be as secure as it’s been until now. More precisely, GameStop generates around $220 million in interest each year thanks to its holding of Treasury bills.
With Bitcoin getting in the mix of factors contributing to the bottom-line figure, things may spin out of ordinary. True, Bitcoin may go up in price and lift GameStop’s net income but it could also decide to nosedive for no reason and eat into GameStop’s profits.
Judging by the votes of the traders last week (if the stock market is a voting machine in the short term), they seem to believe in the latter. At least for now. But that's not a concern to the OG meme stock . Where it hopes Bitcoin will make a difference is the long run. Just look at MicroStrategy MSTR .
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy , is the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder. Even more, it’s a Bitcoin hoarder, sitting on more than 506,000 Bitcoin, according to BTC-tracking platform Bitcoin Treasuries .
Strategy has been issuing debt to buy Bitcoin since 2020 and that’s the exact same thing that GameStop is doing. But there’s a key difference. Strategy has largely strapped its share price to the performance of Bitcoin. So much so that the market has been feverishly buying the stock as a way to get exposure to Bitcoin (on steroids). For GameStop, it’s too late for that.
Shares of Strategy are trading at less than 2x the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
GameStop, in contrast, has appealed to investors for its stack of cash (besides the speculative bonanza) with $4.8 billion in dry powder ready to be deployed. The stock is trading at more than 2x its cash holdings and the cash-to-Bitcoin conversion is likely to dent that performance and trigger some outflows. And that’s how the company puts its premium at risk.
So is it safe to say that GameStop is looking to spark a share-price rally by following MicroStrategy’s lead? Maybe. But the exposure to Bitcoin also comes at a perilous time for the cryptocurrency industry. Bitcoin is down 10% on the year and more than 25% from its all-time high of $109,000 to hover around $84,000 a pop.
Can the Bitcoin philosophy reel GameStop out of the slump? Or will it drag the bottom line and chip away at whatever’s left of the bruised valuation under $10 billion? You be the judge — share your thoughts in the comment section!
Can Gold still break upward?- Gold prices just hit a record high, soaring past $3,085 per ounce in March 2025. That’s not just a number—it’s a warning sign. Investors aren’t piling into gold for no reason. They’re reacting to a world that feels more uncertain by the day.
- The U.S. has imposed heavy tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, triggering trade tensions that are shaking global markets. Inflation is still higher than expected, climbing to 2.8% in February, making traditional investments riskier. At the same time, the U.S. dollar is weakening, and Treasury yields are dropping, pushing investors toward gold as a safe bet. Add to that ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and it’s no surprise that gold is surging. Every new crisis just makes it more attractive.
This isn’t just a temporary spike. Experts warn that the worst effects of these trade policies haven’t even hit yet, and if inflation keeps climbing, the global economy could be in for a rough ride. Gold isn’t just going up—it’s flashing a warning. It’s telling us that investors don’t trust what’s coming next. And if history is any guide, they might be right.
BRBR Power Bar and Protein Shakes Shakin' It UP!Fundamentals:
Meets my parameters for investing long-term.
Technicals:
Daily:
ExDiv1
Triples
161 extension, equal legs and weekly key fib meeting at the same spot (confluence)
New Crown high formed on the daily
Weekly:
uHd+hammerw/ d3 volume @ key fib pullback
morning star
Met monthly average range
Kijun signal
extreme indicator
Target 140 (tentatively), but will hold forever if I possible
Tentative rethinking point to buy more investment if it falls is about 48.
BTC- Weekly Analysis: Elliott Wave ProjectionThis analysis applies Elliott Wave Theory using ghost candles to project potential future price movement for BTC/USDT Perpetual on Pionex.
Wave Structure: Completed (W)-(X)-(Y) correction followed by a speculative (A)-(B)-(C) correction using ghost candles.
Key Levels: Support at $110,791.5 (trendline), Resistance at $140,454.5.
Volume Confirmation: Low volume (154.4K) confirms the projected wave is speculative.
Forecast: If price respects the trendline, the next impulse wave could reach $140,454.5. A breakdown could target $73,238.2.
Bitcon On Track For 73.3K - Daily BreakdownBy now it's fairly obvious we've entered a bearish market. From a peak of 109k to now 82k this is hard to argue. We can view our earning moving average data with the red(10day), blue(20day), and yellow(50day) to see the candles are well below all levels. The most important level on the bearish confirmation is the 50 day EMA cross. This is known as a 'death cross'. When price crosses below the 50 day EMA price historically will continue to decline.
Our second major confirmation to enter short is by looking at lower Support zones for price. Looking at price to the left there are long periods from 73.3k to 87k where price action took off very rapidly with zero consolidation.(side ways market action). This means when price comes back down as it is there are zero support levels(as in the orange box) until 73.3k.
73.3k was previously a resistance level(where price did not go above) four times as in circled. These levels will now become a support zone for buying liquidity.
I do believe this bearish market will be much different than previous years. It will be a much more drawn out process with less typical overall volatility. This is due to the increase in the market cap is much higher than before. That being said the major confirmations based upon EMA data and zero support levels make this overall trend very clear.
Don't be stupid NEVER trade against the trend! Do not except price to snap to target over night either. This is a daily view on the overall direction of BTC and is not a short term trade. We should except price to decrease overall, but remember the market increase and decrease in 'waves'.
NASDAQ Supercycle — Welcome to the Age of Global DistributionOn the long-term chart of NASDAQ:NDX IG:NASDAQ , we are likely in Wave IV of the Supercycle, which appears to be unfolding as a running flat (rFL). The current decline may not be a mere correction, but a motive Wave C, potentially retesting the 2021 ATH zone (around 16,500–17,000) before a powerful new bullish wave begins.
Volume spikes at the top confirm the phase of global distribution, with institutional players gradually locking in profits and reducing exposure.
🧩 Base Scenario:
- We are in the final Wave C within the rFL structure.
- Once complete, a strong Wave V rally may follow.
- Key support zone: around the 2021 all-time high.
🧪 Alternative Scenario:
- This could be part of an extended Wave III of the Supercycle.
- Even so, a significant correction is expected in the near term before the next leg higher.
Structural Drivers for Long-Term NASDAQ Growth:
- 📉 Monetary policy easing from the Fed
- 💵 Fiat currency devaluation
- 🤖 Tech innovation boom — AI, biotech, semiconductors, Big Tech
- 🌍 Global digital transformation
- 🏦 Asset repricing amid structural macro shifts
📌 In conclusion, NASDAQ CME_MINI:NQ1! is entering a period of heightened volatility and capital redistribution — but its long-term upside potential remains intact.
Huge Buy for Gold XAUUSD (Trump announces tariffs of up to 25%)How Trump’s 25% Auto Tariffs Could Be a Huge Buy Signal for Gold
The proposed 25% tariffs on automobile imports to the U.S. by former President Donald Trump could have significant economic consequences, many of which could drive gold prices higher. Here’s why:
1. Trade War Fears and Market Uncertainty
A new wave of tariffs could escalate tensions with key trading partners, particularly the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, leading to retaliatory tariffs and a potential global trade war.
Uncertainty in global trade historically increases demand for gold as investors seek a safe haven from market volatility.
2. Higher Inflation and Rising Costs
Tariffs would increase the price of imported cars, leading to higher inflation in the U.S.
Rising inflation typically weakens consumer purchasing power and drives investors toward gold, a traditional inflation hedge.
3. Economic Slowdown and Risk of Recession
Automakers and suppliers may cut jobs or reduce production, impacting economic growth.
A slowing economy could trigger rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which would lower bond yields and make gold even more attractive as a non-yielding asset.
4. Pressure on the U.S. Dollar
Trade conflicts can destabilize the U.S. dollar, especially if major economies reduce reliance on U.S. exports or retaliate with their own tariffs.
A weaker dollar increases the price of gold, as gold becomes cheaper for foreign investors.
5. Central Bank Demand and Gold Accumulation
If economic uncertainty rises, central banks may increase gold reserves, further boosting demand.
We’ve already seen major central banks accumulating gold at record levels, and new trade disruptions could accelerate this trend.
Conclusion: A Strong Bull Case for Gold
If Trump’s 25% auto tariffs take effect, they could trigger inflation, market volatility, and economic slowdown, all of which are bullish for gold. With central banks buying aggressively and rate cuts likely on the horizon, this could be a major buying opportunity for gold traders.
Would you buy gold in this scenario? Let me know in the comments! 🚀
The Truth About Trendlines: Are You Drawing Them Wrong?If your trendlines look like a toddler took a crayon to your chart, we need to talk. Or if you draw them so much that your chart looks like a spider web, we still need to talk.
Trendlines are one of the most abused, misinterpreted, and downright misused tools in technical analysis. Used correctly, they can give you a structured view of market direction, potential reversals, and areas of interest.
Used incorrectly? Well, they can be your fast lane to bad trades, broken accounts, and questioning your life choices.
So, are you drawing them wrong? Let’s find out.
📞 A Trendline Is Not Your Emotional Support Line
This is big because it happens virtually every day across the charts. When a trade is going south, it’s tempting to adjust your trendline just to make your setup look valid again. That’s not technical analysis—that’s denial. A proper trendline should connect clear pivot highs or lows, not be forcefully manipulated to fit a bias.
Traders do this all the time. Price action no longer respects their original line, so they just… move it. As if shifting the goalposts somehow changes reality. It doesn’t. If your trendline gets broken, respect the price action and get out, don’t adjust the line because you risk dragging your account deeper in losses.
🤝 Two Points Make a Line—But Three Make It Real
Here’s where most traders mess up. They draw a trendline the moment they see two points connecting. Sure, two points technically make a line, but two random highs or lows do not make a valid trend.
A legitimate trendline should be tested at least three times to confirm that price actually respects it. Until then, it’s just a hopeful hypothesis. But we gotta give it to the early spotters — yes, if you see two points, pop open a trade and it pans out nicely, then you’ve chomped down on the good grass before the other animals.
The more times price touches and respects the trendline, the stronger it is but the risk of it getting overcrowded increases. Anything less than three touches? You’re basically trading off a hunch with a potentially higher risk-reward ratio.
⚔️ Wicks, Bodies, or Both? The Great Debate
Should you draw trendlines through candle wicks or just use the bodies of the candlesticks ? If you’ve spent any time in trading communities, you’ve probably seen this debate get heated enough to break friendships.
Here’s the deal:
If you’re trading short-term price action, drawing trendlines using candle bodies makes sense because it reflects where most of the market agreed on price.
If you’re looking at major trends, wicks matter because they show extreme liquidity zones where prices actually reached before snapping back.
⛑️ Steep Trendlines Are a Disaster Waiting to Happen
If your trendline looks more like a vertical cliff than an actual slope, you might want to reconsider its validity. The steeper the trendline, the less reliable it is.
A proper trendline should represent a natural flow of zigging and zagging price action. If it’s moving up too aggressively, it’s usually unsustainable. That’s why parabolic runs tend to end with painful crashes—what goes up too fast typically comes down even faster.
If your trendline is forming an angle sharper than 45 degrees , be careful. Sustainable trends don’t need a rocket launch trajectory to prove their strength.
🌊 One Chart, One Trendline (or Two)—Not Ten
Some traders draw so many trendlines that their charts get lost under the weight of too many lines. If you need to squint to see price action through the mess of lines, you’re doing too much.
Here’s a golden rule in drawing trendlines: less is more. Trendlines should highlight key structures, not overwhelm you with information. If you find yourself drawing trendlines at every minor high and low, take a step back. A clean chart is a tradable chart and one or two trendlines are usually enough to help uncover price direction.
🚩 Breakouts Aren’t Always Breakouts
One of the biggest mistakes traders make is assuming that when the price breaks a trendline, it’s an instant reversal signal. It’s not.
Markets (or well-trained algos) love to fake out emotional traders. Just because price dips below your uptrend line doesn’t mean the trend is over—it could just be a temporary pullback or liquidity grab (stop-loss hunting?) before continuing in the original direction.
Always wait for confirmation. A proper breakout should come with:
Increased volume (to validate the move)
Retest of the broken trendline (flipping from support to resistance, or vice versa)
Clear follow-through (not just a single candle wick that breaks and snaps back)
The market loves tricking traders into premature entries or exits. Don’t fall for it—instead, use some technical backup like looking for a double top, a head and shoulders or some other popular chart pattern .
☝️ The Only Trendline That Matters? The One The Market Respects
At the end of the day, trendlines are just tools—guides to help you structure price action. They’re not magical indicators. They don’t necessarily predict the future. They simply help visualize market tendencies.
If price constantly breaks through your trendline and ignores it, guess what? It’s not a valid trendline. The best traders don’t force a narrative—they adjust their view based on what the price is actually doing.
So next time you find yourself drawing, adjusting, or forcing trendlines into existence, ask yourself: Am I analyzing the market, or just trying to make myself feel better? Because the market isn’t wrong—so better check your trendlines twice.
Now off to you—are you using trendlines in your charts and do you wait for the third point to connect before moving in? Share your experience in the comment section!
Be the Choosy trader on Gold!Price is dragging on dropping. being very indecisive. Looks like the entire market is waiting on News to help give it a push. I need to see price break out of value before I can get a read on a sold move. in the mean time this is sclaping conditions. You can hold trades. Have to cut them short quick with this price action. Since we have some USD news tomorrow that indicates that the market might be waiting for that before proceeding on any decisions. Patience is key!
NFLX & chilling until...Earnings. I have been bearish on this stock technically. Currently it is floating within the Bollinger Bands. Today (3/26) was pretty bearish on the market overall. I read that NFLX will be raising rates or creating alleged value within its ad tiers. I like commercials, so I'll keep watching them lol. Anyways... I just know that people will be affected by loss of jobs/income. NFLXing may not be top of mind for many. I also hear rumors of a stock split. That would be great. & if it happens, I'll still be looking for pullbacks. Will see how week and month close. Earnings 4/17.
***Side note... I remember when the original CD business launched during my college days. Oh how I wish that I was investor savy at the time. Sigh... Looking forward to earning some moolah on my trade ideas now.
AUDUSD triangle pattern suggests a big move is comingAUDUSD has been consolidating in a triangle pattern, suggesting a breakout is near—likely within weeks. A bullish breakout could target 0.6393, with potential for a 229-pip move. A bearish break is also possible but less clear. The setup offers strong risk-reward, with examples showing a 5.6x ratio.
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AMD stock up over 20% off the lows- outperform NVidia?AMD is still cheap relative to its growth and still way down from all time highs.
Seeking alpha analysts expect 25-30% annual growth in earnings yearly. The stock is still in the low 20s PE. Stock can double and still be a good business worth owning for the long term and let compounding earnings work.
Low rsi and bollinger bands gave us the signal to buy, we bought with leverage, now we are in the shares unlevered.
Target would be all time highs over the next 2-3 years.