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Russia-Ukraine Peace Agreement what could it mean to forex!A peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could send ripples through the Forex and Commodities markets. Here's how major assets might react: 📊 Key Market Shifts to Watch: ✅ Risk-On Sentiment Returns Traders may rotate out of safe havens like USD, JPY, CHF, and Gold. Risk currencies like AUD, NZD, and emerging market currencies could strengthen. ✅ Euro Strength Likely (EUR ↑) Europe gains the most relief → energy prices fall, inflation cools, confidence grows. ✅ Oil & Energy Prices May Drop Peace reduces supply fears → crude oil and gas prices could fall → impacting CAD, NOK, RUB. 🔀 Likely Forex Movements: 🔼 Pairs Likely to Rise 💡 Reason EUR/USD Euro up on peace; USD weakens as fear fades. AUD/JPY Aussie rises on risk appetite; Yen weakens. EUR/JPY Similar to AUD/JPY—EUR gains, JPY loses. NZD/JPY Risk-on favors NZD; JPY drops. EUR/CHF Swiss Franc weakens; Euro benefits. USD/ZAR (falls) Rand strengthens on global optimism. 🔽 Pairs Likely to Fall 💡 Reason USD/JPY USD and JPY both weaken, but USD may drop more. USD/CHF Same story—less demand for safe havens. USD/RUB Ruble recovery if sanctions ease. CAD/JPY Oil-sensitive CAD may dip slightly 🟡 What About Commodities Like Gold? (XAU/USD) ⬇️ Gold Likely to Fall As a traditional safe-haven, Gold (XAU/USD) tends to rise during geopolitical turmoil. Peace = lower fear = investors rotate out of Gold into riskier, yield-bearing assets. Lower inflation expectations could also reduce demand for Gold as an inflation hedge. 🧠 Key Level Watch: If peace is confirmed, XAU/USD could drop below key support zones, especially if USD strengthens slightly on rate differentials. 🔍 Final Thoughts: The magnitude of these moves depends on the terms and credibility of the peace deal. If it includes sanctions relief and long-term commitments, expect larger market reactions. Stay alert for central bank policy shifts, especially if inflation drops. 💬 What pairs or commodities are you watching if peace becomes a reality? Drop your insights below! 📌 Follow me for more macro-FX breakdowns, commodities analysis, and trading insights.
Education
by AmaWina
5
Will History Repeat Itself? $580 Target For SPY By Early MayThe market has been in the doldrums since finding support after a nasty wave of selling that caused AMEX:SPY to decline by an additional 15% in a matter of days. Since we’ve been chopping around in this $65 range, we have seen some sharp swings both ways, but little sense of direction. i think that is about to change soon. Using the time around the Death Cross (When the daily 50MA crosses below the 200MA) of 2022 as a frame of reference, and taking recent PA into account using Elliott Wave, I think it is clear a bear market rally is already underway. Starting with 2022, the price fell in three distinct waves before making a significant retracement. The day after the 50MA crossed below the 200MA, the price found a temporary bottom before chopping around for 13 sessions. Volume was on a steady decline before the price made a higher low and retraced nearly 75% of Wave (A) over the course of another 13 sessions (13 is a fibonacci number btw). The price briefly spiked above all of the moving averages (50/100/200) before getting sold off again in the strongest wave of the bear market of that year. Now looking at the daily chart for this year, the setup is a little bit different but there are still similarities. For starters, the 50MA crossed below the 200MA a few days after the market found a temporary bottom at $482. What I’m counting as Wave A of (B) lasted for five sessions (another Fibonacci number). Wave B of (B) was actually four sessions but I decided to compare the volume of both movements using the same chunk of time. As you can see, there was nearly double the volume in Wave A vs Wave B, signaling that bulls are in control (for now). Volume in Wave A was comparatively higher on average than the entire downtrend, which is also worthy of note. Since we are now in Wave C of (B) and the 100MA is converging with the 200MA, we should see the squeeze here. A similar retracement to complete Wave (B), when comparing to 2022, would suggest AMEX:SPY will spike above $580 rather quickly before the next sell off. If Wave C were to unfold in a more conservative eight sessions (the next biggest fib number) we should see Wave (B) end around Thursday May 1st. It could take a little bit longer since the next FOMC is May 6-7, which could be an event that will cause the market to change directions. Lastly, for a closer look, this is how I am counting the sub-waves on the 500R ($5) chart. Wave B was a classic Regular Flat pattern that saw wave (c) find support slightly past 100% of wave (a) at roughly $509. The price quickly found support (much faster than I would have expected) without filling the gap and ripped higher. We’ve also seen the price hover around monthly VWAP for a while, which indicates somewhat of an agreement on price despite the wild swings. The price gapped up over 2% on Wednesday before seeing some selling in the afternoon. We could either close this gap on Thursday or continue higher to close the upper gap at $560 and beyond. Volume increased from wave (b)-(c), and has remained higher - which I think is accumulation. Using intraday ratios, Wave C of (B) could extend as high as the 1.618 extension at $587. Actually, one last thing. TVC:VIX price action also supports my thesis. Even through the PA on AMEX:SPY was relatively neutral on Wednesday after the gap up, VIX still importantly dropped below support and is now below the 0.618 retracement. I think it will return to the 200MA for support, which usually hovers around $20. Fib circles added just because they’re kind of interesting to me when analyzing VIX. If you’ve made it this far, thank you for reading and good luck. As always - use your best judgement and be ready to react to anything that happens in the market.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ap769
27
Is Meta The Most Undervalued Stock In The Magnificent 7?In a recent post on key investment trends for the next decade, we highlighted the addictiveness and pervasiveness of social media as a critical long-term shift. Today, we're buying Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META which we believe represents an exceptional investment opportunity. The Financials META's recent financial performance has been stellar. The company has maintained 20%+ year-over-year revenue growth for most of the last two years – impressive for a business generating nearly $50 billion quarterly. Even more compelling is bottom-line growth, with net income increasing approximately 50% year-over-year. This growth is underpinned by META's robust margin profile, which has strengthened considerably since 2022. We attribute this performance to the company's powerful network effects across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger – platforms that effectively capture user attention and provide advertisers with compelling ROI. The Valuation What makes META particularly attractive right NOW is the valuation. We consider it the most competitively priced among the Magnificent 7 stocks. With the exception of Google, META offers the most favorable metrics on P/E, EV/EBITDA, and P/S ratios. When factoring in growth expectations, META's PEG ratio actually comes in below Google's. Historically, META is trading at or below its long-term average multiples – with its P/E ratio currently in the lower standard deviation band. Overall, we believe META's combination of robust growth, significant margins, and attractive multiple make it the most undervalued Magnificent 7 stock. In a choppy market, we rate the stock a "Strong Buy".
NASDAQ:META
by PropNotes
17
Bitcoin Cycle Update – Are We Nearing the Peak?Check out this BTCUSDT chart – we’re at GETTEX:92K today, and seems like things are heating up! ▸We’ve seen a Cycle Bottom in late 2022 - early 2023, followed by strong Bull runs in 2023 and 2024. ▸Those Consolidation phases (sideways channels) gave us the perfect setup for massive pumps! ▸Right now, we’re in a Pause Triangle after a big rally – but the Cycle Top could be just around the corner in mid-2025. ▸After that? A potential Bear phase – time to plan your moves! 💡 What’s your strategy? Are you riding this wave to the top, or preparing for the next dip? Let’s discuss 📨
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ArShevelev
27
Real Success Rates of the Falling Wedge in TradingReal Success Rates of the Falling Wedge in Trading The falling wedge is a chart pattern highly valued by traders for its potential for bullish reversals after a bearish or consolidation phase. Its effectiveness has been extensively studied and documented by various technical analysts and leading authors. Key Statistics Bullish Exit: In 82% of cases, the exit from the falling wedge is upward, making it one of the most reliable patterns for anticipating a positive reversal. Price Target Achieved: The pattern's theoretical target (calculated by plotting the height of the wedge at the breakout point) is achieved in approximately 63% to 88% of cases, depending on the source, demonstrating a high success rate for profit-taking. Trend Reversal: In 55% to 68% of cases, the falling wedge acts as a reversal pattern, signaling the end of a downtrend and the beginning of a new bullish phase. Pullback: After the breakout, a pullback (return to the resistance line) occurs in approximately 53% to 56% of cases, which can provide a second entry opportunity but tends to reduce the pattern's overall performance. False Breakouts: False exits represent between 10% and 27% of cases. However, a false bullish breakout only results in a true bearish breakout in 3% of cases, making the bullish signal particularly robust. Performance and Context Bull Market: The pattern performs particularly well when it appears during a corrective phase of an uptrend, with a profit target reached in 70% of cases within three months. Gain Potential: The maximum gain potential can reach 32% in half of cases during a bullish breakout, according to statistical studies on equity markets. Formation Time: The wider the wedge and the steeper the trend lines, the faster and more violent the post-breakout upward movement will be. Comparative Summary of Success Rates: Criteria Rate Observed Frequency Bullish Exit 82% Price Target Achieved 63% to 88% Reversal Pattern 55% to 68% Pullback After Breakout 53% to 56% False Breakouts (False Exits) 10% to 27% Bullish False Breakouts Leading to a Downside 3% Points of Attention The falling wedge is a rare and difficult pattern to correctly identify, requiring at least five contact points to be valid. Performance is best when the breakout occurs around 60% of the pattern's length and when volume increases at the time of the breakout. Pullbacks, although frequent, tend to weaken the initial bullish momentum. Conclusion The falling wedge has a remarkable success rate, with more than 8 out of 10 cases resulting in a bullish exit and a price target being reached in the majority of cases. However, it remains essential to validate the pattern with other technical signals (volume, momentum) and to remain vigilant against false breakouts, even if their rate is relatively low. When mastered, this pattern proves to be a valuable tool for traders looking for optimized entry points on bullish reversals.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
5
GBPJPY Bullish Breakout – Watch for Momentum Towards 194.60GBPJPY has broken out of a descending wedge and is now retesting the breakout zone near 189.50–189.80. This area aligns with previous structure support and the wedge's upper boundary. Price action indicates bullish momentum is resuming. 🔑 Key Levels: Current Price: 189.66 Breakout Level: ~189.50 Resistance Targets: TP1: 190.55 (recent resistance high) TP2: 192.57 TP3: 194.61 (key supply/weekly resistance zone) ✅ Bullish Confluence: Breakout from falling wedge pattern Strong retest of breakout zone with consolidation Higher low formation and bullish engulfing attempt No major resistance until 190.50, providing clean upside 🧠 Fundamental Context: CBI Report (UK): Sentiment and investment outlook among UK manufacturers is deteriorating, but the pound has shown resilience likely driven by broader risk-on market sentiment. BOJ Outlook (Japan): IMF suggests BOJ is likely to delay further rate hikes due to global uncertainty from US tariffs, maintaining a dovish bias. This weakens the yen’s fundamental strength. Market Mood: With Japan facing delayed policy tightening and UK's inflation still above target, GBPJPY favors the bullish case in the short term. 💡 Trade Idea: Bias: Bullish above 189.30 Entry: On retest confirmation around 189.50 Target 1: 190.55 Target 2: 192.57 Target 3: 194.61 Stop Loss: Below 188.80 📌 Note: Keep an eye on US data and BOJ tone shifts. Any risk-off shift in global markets could affect yen strength unexpectedly.
Long
by ultreosforex
16
VIX, the paroxysm of fear is behind us The international equity market suffered a bearish shock between the beginning of February and the beginning of April, against the backdrop of the trade war. The trade war known as “reciprocal tariffs” initiated by the Trump Administration caused the MSCI World stock index to fall by over 20%. Now, since the States have entered into a sequence of trade diplomacy, the equity market has rebounded and volatility has dropped one floor. Can we say that the paroxysm of fear is behind us, based on the prism of technical analysis of the financial markets? To answer this question, we'd like to take a look at two interesting charts. 1) Firstly, the implied volatility chart of the stocks that make up the SP 500 index, the VIX. The nickname of this index is “the fear index”. Its calculation is based on the price of call and put options on the stocks making up the SP500 index. Remember that the S&P 500 is considered the benchmark index of Western finance 2) The second chart of interest is a quantitative analysis of financial markets. Quantitative analysis of financial markets is one of the disciplines of technical analysis of financial markets, and here it concerns the percentage of SP 500 stocks above the 50-day moving average. It is precisely the application of technical analysis to these two charts that allows us to argue in favour of a selling paroxysm reached during the first fortnight of April. For the VIX, the fear index has been rejecting downwards since the 60 level, with a chartist “black cloud cover” structure (Japanese candlestick terminology) and a bearish resolution of the RSI technical indicator from its weekly overbought zone. This signal historically signified that the paroxysm of fear was over. For the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day moving average, the quantitative bullish signal is very convincing. Historically, every time this percentage has fallen below the 20% threshold in an abrupt fashion, only to rise back up again, it has signalled the final phase of the bear market, and that's what's happening again this April 2025, as you can see on the chart below. CONCLUSION: Through the prism of technical analysis of the financial markets, a number of clues point to a paroxysm of fear reached in the first half of April. Of course, only the fundamentals and the outcome of trade diplomacy can confirm that the low point is well and truly behind us. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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TVC:VIXShort
by Swissquote
6
GOLD may enter accumulation when the market lacks impact Spot OANDA:XAUUSD prices were broadly steady in Asian trade on Friday (April 25) after a sharp rise in the previous trading day. The current price of gold is around $3,341/ounce, down from the $3,371 price target that readers noted in yesterday's edition. Spot gold prices jumped on Thursday, snapping a nearly 3% decline the previous day, helped by a weaker US dollar and bargain-hunting as investors kept a close eye on the latest news on tariff negotiations. Market Highlights Gold prices rebounded on Thursday after their biggest drop this year as bargain hunters entered the market, Bloomberg reported. China's official broadcaster CCTV reported Thursday that the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering a plan to impose tiered tariffs on China, and White House press secretary Levitt said Trump's stance on tariffs on China "has not softened." "This is all fake news. As far as I know, China and the United States have never consulted or negotiated on tariffs, let alone reached an agreement. This tariff war was initiated by the United States, and China's attitude is consistent and clear: if you want to fight, we will fight to the end; if you want to negotiate, the door is open. Dialogue and negotiation must be equal, respectful and mutually beneficial," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun. Cleveland Fed President Hammack made it clear in an interview on Thursday that the Fed has essentially ruled out a rate cut in May. But she also delivered a key message, saying that if there is clear evidence of the economy’s direction, there will be room for policy action in June. When asked if a rate cut was possible in June, Hammack said: “If we get clear and compelling data in June, then I think the committee will act, assuming we have a clear understanding of the right path for policy at that point.” Markets reacted quickly after Hammack’s remarks, with interest rate swaps indicating the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June rising to around 65%. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD After achieving the target increase twice, which readers should pay attention to in the previous day's publication at 3,371 USD, the price point of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236%, the recovery momentum of gold is being controlled and limited. In the short term, gold is likely to enter a sideways accumulation phase, waiting for more fundamental breakthroughs. The expected accumulation area is around 3,371 - 3,292 USD, which are the positions of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236% and 0.382%. However, with the current position, the main outlook is still bullish in the long term with the trend from the price channel as the main trend and support from the EMA21 as the main support. During the day, the expectation of short-term accumulation in the main uptrend will be noted by the following levels. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3411 - 3409⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3415 →Take Profit 1 3403 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3397 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3204 - 3206⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3200 →Take Profit 1 3212 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3218
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
17
Discipline in Trading: The Indicator That Works 100% of the TimeEvery trader has that one folder — “Winning Indicators,” “Secret Scripts,” or the iconic “Final Strategy v12_REAL_THIS_ONE_WORKS.” It's where we hoard indicators like Pokémon, convinced the next RSI+MACD+SMA combo tweak will finally reveal the holy grail of trading. Spoiler: it won’t. Because the real indicator that works — actually works — isn’t on your chart. It’s not in a TradingView script. It’s not even on your screen. But it’s there — etched into your trade history, tattooed into your losses, and reflected in your ability (or inability) to stop yourself from clicking “buy” because Elon Musk tweeted a goat emoji. It’s called discipline . And it’s the only thing in trading that has a 100% hit rate… if you let it. Let’s talk about why discipline isn’t just a virtue — it’s the foundation of every successful trader you admire. And why, ironically, it’s forged in the moments you want to throw your monitor out the window. 👋 Everyone’s a Genius — Until the Market Slaps You When things are going well, discipline feels unnecessary. You enter a trade on a hunch, it flies. You skip the stop loss, and price reverses right where you “felt” it would. You’re up three trades in a row, so clearly you’ve transcended markets and deserve your own hedge fund. Right? Until you don’t. And the one time you triple down on a loser “because it always bounces”… it doesn’t. And suddenly you're not a genius — you’re Googling how to recover a blown account and wondering if that crypto bro who offered signals still has his DMs open. The reality is that everyone trades well in good times — bulls make money in rising markets and bears make money in falling markets. But real traders are made in the bad times. That’s where discipline is forged. 🧐 No Pain, No Gain Here’s the deal: discipline is not something you're born with. It’s built, brick by painful brick, on the smoldering ruins of your worst trades. The overleveraged EUR/USD short you held through an ECB rate hike? Discipline. The meme stock you bought at the top because your barista mentioned it? Discipline. The four back-to-back trades you entered on revenge mode after getting stopped out? Discipline — with a side of therapy. These moments suck. But they’re also where the learning happens. You don’t develop discipline from your wins. You develop it from losses that leave a mark. The kind of mark you think about while brushing your teeth. The kind that whispers: “maybe follow the plan next time.” 🤝 Success Leaves Clues You’ve probably heard the phrase “plan your trade and trade your plan” so many times it’s lost all meaning. But it’s the foundation of discipline. Not because rules are fun, but because rules are the only thing that can protect you from… well, yourself. Let’s be honest — if left to your own devices, you run the risk of: Entering too early because “it looks like it’s going to move.” Exiting too late because “it might come back.” Increasing the leverage because “I’m due for a win.” Successful traders are those who follow a disciplined, rule-based approach to trading. Discipline says no. It says “this is the plan” and makes you stick to it — even when your ego is telling you to wing it. Discipline doesn’t care about your feelings. It cares about consistency. And that’s what makes it powerful. 🎯 Hedge Fund Bros Who Didn’t Win by Binge-Clicking Let’s talk about those who actually did launch a fund — and didn’t blow it up in three months. Stanley Druckenmiller, former lead portfolio manager for George Soros’s Quantum Fund who later went on to launch his own Duquesne family office, famously said: “The key to making money in markets is to have an opinion and to bet it big. But only when the odds are heavily in your favor.” Notice what he didn’t say: “Click as many buttons as possible and hope it works out.” Druckenmiller didn’t trade because he was bored. He waited. He watched. And when his setup came, he struck with discipline. Not with fear. Not with greed. With process. If one of the greatest macro traders of all time had the patience to wait for his edge, maybe you don’t need to scalp every green candle on the 1-minute chart. Ray Dalio — the one who built Bridgewater into a hedge fund juggernaut — doesn’t sugarcoat it: trading is hard. And mistakes are inevitable. Discipline, Dalio says, is what turns mistakes into evolution. His famous mantra? “Pain + Reflection = Progress.” He built a company culture (and a personal philosophy) around radical transparency — writing down every mistake, analyzing every trade, and building systems that override ego. Most traders experience pain. Very few pause to reflect. Fewer still build processes to avoid making the same mistake twice. So next time you get stopped out for the third time in a row, don’t curse the chart. Open your journal. Write it down. Check what you missed. That’s what turns amateurs into professionals. 👀 Discipline in Trading: How It Actually Looks Discipline isn’t glamorous. You won’t post it on Instagram (maybe it's good for LinkedIn, though). But here’s what it looks like in the wild: Passing on a trade that doesn’t check all the boxes — even though you’re “pretty sure it’ll work.” Taking a small win and moving on, even when your gut says to hold and “let it ride.” Staying flat on FOMC day because you know news candles have a personal vendetta against your stop-losses. Journaling a bad trade and owning the mistake. No excuses. Just honesty. 💪 How to Build Discipline Building discipline isn’t about becoming a robot. It’s about creating a process that works even when your emotions don’t. Here’s how to start: Journal everything : Not just your trades, but your thoughts before and after. Discipline grows in awareness. Have a checklist: Make it stupidly simple. If a trade doesn’t check every box, don’t take it. Pre-set your risk: Before the trade. Not after. You’re not negotiating with yourself mid-trade. Set trade limits: Three trades per day. One setup per session. Whatever keeps you from spiraling. Take breaks: If you’re chasing losses, walk away. The markets will be there tomorrow. Will you? 📌 Final Thought: Why Discipline Works You can have the best tools, the slickest chart setup, and the strongest trade ideas. But if you can’t follow your own rules, you won’t go far. Discipline isn’t flashy. It doesn’t promise 1,000% returns or viral content. It just works. Quietly. Relentlessly. Predictably. And when the market turns — because it always does — discipline is what will keep you standing. Because it’s not the indicator that matters. It’s the trader using it. So, be honest—where has discipline made (or broken) your trading? And what’s your best tip for sticking to the plan when your brain wants to do anything but?
Education
by TradingView
48
Market Analysis: Gold Extends Record RunMarket Analysis: Gold Extends Record Run Gold price started a fresh surge above the $3,250 resistance level. Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today - Gold price started a fresh surge and traded to a new record high at $3,384 against the US Dollar. - A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $3,322 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen. Gold Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed a base near the $3,200 zone. The price started a steady increase above the $3,250 and $3,280 resistance levels. There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $3,350. The bulls pushed the price above the $3,380 resistance zone. A new record high was formed near $3,384 and the price is now consolidating gains. On the downside, immediate support is near the $3,362 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,283 swing low to the $3,384 high. The next major support sits at $3,322. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $3,322. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,283 swing low to the $3,384 high. A downside break below the trend line support might send the price toward the $3,282 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,242 support zone. Immediate resistance is near the $3,384 level. The next major resistance is near the $3,388 level. An upside break above the $3,388 resistance could send Gold price toward $3,500. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $3,520 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
9
Big Tech Lines Up for Earnings Season: What Traders Should KnowPeak earnings season is right around the corner — the next two weeks are for the geeks with tech giants slated to report their quarterly financials all the while traders and investors weigh concerns over tariffs, trade wars, and export controls. On tap to offload first-quarter earnings updates this week are Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA (Tuesday) and Google parent Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL (Thursday). We’ll get more of the tech elite next week — Meta NASDAQ:META and Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT deliver next Wednesday and Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN and Apple NASDAQ:AAPL report Thursday. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA reports late in May. Let’s talk about that. Welcome to earnings season, aka that rush hour of the quarter when traders hit refresh on the earnings calendar , their watchlists, and cortisol levels. Once again, it's Big Tech in the spotlight — specifically the Magnificent Seven club, a pack of tech heavy hitters who spent the past year building the future of artificial intelligence only to be the first out the door this year when investors dumped risk in the face of looming global uncertainty. Now, with Tesla and Alphabet kicking off what could be a market-moving series of updates, the real question isn’t just who beat the numbers — but who can still tell a good story in the face of tariffs, competition, and AI-fueled capex that’s starting to look like Monopoly money. 👜 The Setup: Seven Stocks, Seven Bags to Hold The Magnificent Seven — Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Nvidia — aren’t just the tech elite. They’ve been the main engine of the market for the last few years. But in 2025, the wheels have come off. These technology mainstays, towering over the growth sector, have shed hundreds of billions and are now nursing double-digit percentage losses. Each. One. Of. Them. The growth space, valued more on prospects of bright performance rather than current showing, has been hit hard this year. How hard? That hard: Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA is down 36% Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA is down 27% Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN is down 21% Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL is down 20% Apple NASDAQ:AAPL is down 19% Meta NASDAQ:META is down 16% Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT is down 12% On the outside, we all know what’s dragging stocks — it’s the widespread tariff jitters fanning recession fears and triggering waves of capital outflows. But on the inside, these tech giants are deep into a spending spree, and paring back that guidance might be too late. AI spending is now at fever pitch, having gone from “impressive” to “uh… should we be concerned?” And that’s what investors will be watching when these masters of technology report quarterly numbers. Besides the usual revenue figures, earnings per share and (likely timid) guidance, capital expenditures will draw a ton of attention. Capital expenditures, or capex, is the amount of money a company allocates for investments in new stuff like hardware and software and that may include beefing up existing infrastructure. Injecting AI into systems and operations is top focus right now and Big Tech has decided to be generous and pony up some big money for it. Here’s what this year’s capex looks like, as per prior guidance: Microsoft has allocated $80 billion Alphabet has set aside $75 billion Amazon? $100 billion ready to roll Zuck’s Meta is in with up to $65 billion The rest of the Mag 7 haven’t put out official capex projections but no one is sleeping on the opportunity. Let’s go around the room and see what each of these is dealing with right now. 🚗 Tesla: A Look Under the Hood Tesla reports first, and traders are bracing for either redemption — or another reason to panic sell. On the surface, it’s not pretty: EV demand is sagging, especially in China and Europe. Musk’s political disruption and proximity to Trump aren’t helping the optics. And with shares already down 36% this year, the company enters this earnings call with bruises and baggage. Revenue is expected to come in at $21.2 billion, down 1%, while earnings are projected to drop 8% to $0.42. Tesla delivered 336,681 cars in Q4 , a 14% drop from the same time a year ago. 🌎 Alphabet: Quiet Strength, But Still on Watch Alphabet is expected to deliver solid results — $89.2 billion in revenue, up 11%, and $2.01 in earnings per share, up 6.3% from last year. Among the Mag 7, it’s one of the best-positioned players to weather trade volatility, thanks to its size, diverse revenue streams, and sheer dominance in advertising and cloud computing. Its Gemini AI model is heating up the race against ChatGPT and Copilot, and its cloud division is quietly chipping away at AWS and Azure’s lead. That said, traders will still be watching for any signs of slowdown in digital ad spending—a canary in the coal mine if the economy starts to sputter under tariffs and tightening global conditions. 💻 Amazon and Apple: The Slow Burners Amazon, with its big-ticket spending on AI, is playing the long game — mostly through AWS, the company’s main driver of profitability. It's aggressive, even by Big Tech standards. The problem? AWS margins are under pressure, and retail is facing the squeeze from cautious consumers. Amazon needs to prove it can turn AI into revenue, not just headlines. Amazon’s sales and earnings per share are projected to grow 8.16% and 38.7% respectively. Apple, meanwhile, is in the risky position of relying a bit too much on China for its products — it ships about 90% of its iPhone from Asia’s biggest economy. And while that may be irrelevant for first-quarter results, it may weigh on the company’s outlook, considering Trump’s flip-flopping on Chinese tariffs (is tech in or is tech out?) . The iPhone maker is expected to report $93.9 billion in revenue and $1.61 in earnings per share. 🔍 Meta and Microsoft: AI Darlings With Something to Prove Meta reports next Wednesday, and the pressure’s on. Zuck has gone full steam into AI, pushing for everything from AI chatbots in WhatsApp to personalized content generation across Facebook and Instagram. But here’s the kicker: Meta still makes its money from ads. And if ad budgets start shrinking in response to tariffs or a slower economy, AI investments may not save the day — at least not right away. Meta is expected to pull in $41.3 billion in revenue and $5.24 in earnings per share. Microsoft, on the other hand, has positioned itself as the white-collar AI whisperer. Copilot is everywhere — Office, Teams, Edge, Windows — and its $80 billion in AI infrastructure spending is squarely aimed at enterprise dominance. It still holds a 49% stake in OpenAI, and Azure is growing, albeit slower than expected. If Microsoft can show AI adoption translating into real revenue, traders may get the breakout they’ve been waiting for. Microsoft is expected to pick up revenue of $68.5 billion and $3.23 in earnings per share. 🤖 Nvidia: The Final Boss Nvidia won’t report until late May, but it’s already looming over the entire earnings season. Every other tech company is spending billions on Nvidia’s chips — so when the chipmaker finally updates investors, it could swing sentiment across the entire sector. The market wants to see that demand is real and growing, especially from hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. If Nvidia disappoints, the fallout might be like watching a domino go down. Nvidia is expected to bring home $43.1 billion in revenue and $0.90 in earnings per share. ⚙️ Final Thoughts: Big Bets, Big Risks This isn’t just another earnings season — it’s a stress test for the Magnificent Seven amid times of big market shifts. The group that once carried the market now faces a reality check: AI is expensive, global trade is messy, and Wall Street is no longer giving out free passes for “vision.” But where there’s risk, there’s also opportunity. Traders who can sift through the noise, spot the change in tone, and ride the next narrative — whether it’s autonomous Teslas, AI-powered spreadsheets, or ad-supported Metaverse avatars — will have the edge. What’s your take? Which Big Tech name are you watching most closely — and are you betting on a rebound or bracing for more pain? Let’s hear it from you.
SP:SPX
by TradingView
9
Trend Exhaustion SignalsTrend Exhaustion Signals: How to Know When a Trend is Losing Steam Every trend eventually runs out of fuel. Knowing when momentum is fading can give you the edge to exit early, avoid late entries, or even prepare for a reversal. This article dives into key signs of trend exhaustion and how to trade around them. 🔵Understanding Trend Exhaustion Trends can persist far longer than expected, but they don’t last forever. Trend exhaustion occurs when the driving force behind a trend—be it buying or selling pressure—starts to weaken. Recognizing this shift is crucial for: Protecting profits Avoiding bad entries Spotting early reversal opportunities 🔵1. RSI and MACD Divergence A classic signal of trend exhaustion is divergence between price and momentum indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). Bearish Divergence: Price makes a higher high, but the indicator makes a lower high. Bullish Divergence: Price makes a lower low, but the indicator makes a higher low. This suggests that although price continues in the trend's direction, momentum is lagging—a red flag for potential exhaustion. 🔵2. Volume Dry-Up Volume is the fuel of trends. When volume starts to shrink during a strong move, it often signals that the crowd is losing interest or that institutions are offloading positions. In an uptrend, a series of green candles with decreasing volume = caution. In a downtrend, falling volume can signal seller fatigue. 🔵3. Long-Wick Candles at Extremes Candlestick patterns offer visual clues of exhaustion. When you start seeing long upper wicks at the top of an uptrend (or long lower wicks at the bottom of a downtrend), it means price is being rejected from continuing further. Common exhaustion patterns: Shooting Star (bearish) Inverted Hammer (bullish) Doji at highs/lows These patterns are more reliable when they form near resistance or support zones. 🔵4. Structure Break: CHoCH and BOS Market structure tells a deeper story than indicators. Two key terms here: CHoCH (Change of Character): The first sign of reversal—a higher low broken in an uptrend, or a lower high broken in a downtrend. BOS (Break of Structure): The confirmation—a key swing point is broken, confirming a new trend. Traders can watch for these breaks to anticipate when the current trend is ending and a reversal is forming. 🔵5. Parabolic Price Action & Overextension When a trend becomes parabolic—with steep, accelerating price movement—it often signals the final stage of the trend. This is when retail traders usually enter, and smart money begins to exit. Warning signs: Sudden vertical moves Price far above/below moving averages Lack of consolidation or pullbacks Parabolic moves are unsustainable. Look for reversion to the mean or a sharp correction. 🔵How to Trade Around Trend Exhaustion Tighten Stops: If in a winning trend trade, consider locking in profits or trailing your stop. Avoid Chasing Entries: Late entries into exhausted trends are high-risk, low-reward. Prepare for Reversal Setups: Watch for confirmation (CHoCH, divergence, candle patterns) before entering counter-trend positions. Use Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Exhaustion on the 1H chart may just be a pullback on the 4H. Always zoom out for context. Trend exhaustion is a natural part of market behavior. Recognizing the signs—such as divergence, fading volume, long wicks, structure breaks, and parabolic moves—can help you time exits better and avoid late trades. Instead of reacting after the fact, you’ll be prepared in advance. Add these tools to your trading routine and stay one step ahead of the crowd.
Education
by BigBeluga
28
“Does size matter?” when it comes to backtesting?It’s the kind of question that gets a few smirks, sure. But when it comes to backtesting trading strategies, it’s not a joke, it’s the difference between confidence and false hope. Let’s get real for a minute: the size of your candles absolutely matters. What you don’t see can hurt you Most people start testing on bigger timeframes. It’s faster, easier on the eyes, and the results look clean. But clean doesn’t mean correct. Larger candles blur the details. That one nice-looking 4-hour candle? Inside, price could’ve spiked, reversed, chopped around, or triggered your stop before closing where it did. You’d never know. And that’s the problem. You might think your entry worked beautifully… but only because the data smoothed out everything that actually happened. A backtest should feel like a real trade Trading isn't just about the final price. It’s about what price does to get there. That messy movement inside the candle? That’s where most trades are made or broken. If your strategy is even remotely reactive, waiting for structure, confirmation, retests, or anything time-sensitive, you need to see what price did between the open and close. And the only way to see that? Use smaller candles. Smaller data, clearer picture 1-minute candles might look overwhelming at first, but they give you something the higher timeframes just can’t: behavior. Not just outcomes. Not just win/loss stats. But the actual shape of the move, the hesitation, the fakeouts, the precise moment when the trade made sense—or didn’t. And once you start testing with that level of detail, your strategy either earns your trust… or shows its cracks. So how small should you go? There’s no one-size-fits-all here. But as a general rule: if your idea relies on precision, go small. Test it on 1-minute or 5-minute charts, even if you plan to execute on higher timeframes. You’ll quickly see if the entry makes sense, or if you’ve been relying on candle-close hindsight. Yes, it takes longer. Yes, you’ll stare at noisy charts for hours. But your strategy will thank you. Watch out for “too good to be true” One last thing, if your backtest results look flawless on 1h or 4h candles, pause. That’s often a sign that you’re testing a story, not a strategy. Zoom in. See what actually happens. You might be surprised at how different the same trade looks when you’re not glossing over the details. TL;DR: In backtesting, size absolutely matters. Smaller candles reveal real behavior. Bigger ones hide the truth. So if you care about how your strategy actually performs not just how it looks. go smaller. Your backtesting will get sharper, and your confidence? Way more earned.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Maaz_BA
12
Netflix Pops as Earnings Top Estimates. Are Tariffs a Threat?Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX dropped its first-quarter earnings Thursday after market close and the headlines practically wrote themselves: a record net income, an earnings beat, and a 3% implied jump for the stock at the opening bell. All in a market where the Nasdaq is crying in the corner. But as always in markets, the big question isn’t “What happened?”—it’s “What could mess this up?” Ready, set, action: steep tariffs, Donald Trump, and the looming threat of a recession-fueled advertising freeze. Let’s break down the earnings binge before we channel surf over to the risk segment. Spoiler: Netflix is on a roll—but geopolitical static might still mess with the signal. 🎬 Netflix Hits Record Numbers The earnings season is picking up the pace. Netflix’s Q1 revenue hit $10.5 billion, up 13% from last year, with net income jumping to a record $2.9 billion. That’s a cool $600 million more than the same quarter last year—and a massive flex with earnings per share at $6.61. Wall Street was only expecting $5.71 a pop. More importantly, the company raised its full-year revenue forecast to the range of $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion. 💿 How Many New Subs? In case you're hunting for sub numbers moving forward—don’t bother. Netflix said last quarter they’re done reporting them quarterly. They’d rather focus on what “really matters”: revenue, operating margin, and ad growth. In Q4 2024, the final quarter with a subscriber growth update, the company pulled off its biggest user-count gain ever: 19 million new accounts , bringing the global total to over 300 million. Not a bad way to drop the mic and ghost the group chat. 🍿 The Ads Are Working. So Are the Price Hikes. In a move that would usually send churn metrics on a downhill slope, Netflix in January bumped its top-tier plan to $24.99/month in the US. Either that speaks volumes about content quality, or we’ve all collectively accepted that we’ll pay any price to avoid commercials. That said, ads are quietly becoming Netflix’s next big profit lever. After a rocky launch in late 2022, the ad-supported tier is now gaining serious traction. According to estimates, 43% of new US sign-ups in February 2025 opted for the ad-tier plan, up from 40% in January. Netflix expects to nearly double ad revenue this year. 📺 Is Netflix Recession-Proof? With interest rates high relative to four years ago, consumer wallets stretched, and geopolitical tension ratcheting up, Netflix Co-CEO Greg Peters had to address the elephant in the earnings room: what happens if people stop spending? Streaming should survive the storm. As he put it, “Entertainment has historically been pretty resilient in tougher economic times.” Executives also noted that during downturns, people tend to seek value. Netflix, with its endless scroll, becomes the budget-friendly indulgence of choice. It’s hard to argue with that when you’re five episodes deep into a true-crime docuseries at 3 a.m. 👀 But Then There’s That Nagging Tariff Thing... While Netflix has so far been insulated from the direct hit of Trump’s revived trade war—most of its costs are content, not commodities—it’s not immune to broader market impact. Tariffs could rattle advertisers, especially if they trigger inflation spikes, slowdowns, or investor anxiety. Ad budgets are notoriously skittish in volatile times, and if there’s one thing advertisers hate more than bad CPMs, it’s uncertainty. Already, there's chatter that major brands are planning to trim digital spending heading into the second half of the year. Translation: if tariffs lead to an economic wobble, Netflix’s ad revenue (and by extension, its bullish earnings story) could face a tougher climb. 📢 Leadership Shuffle: No Drama, Just Strategy In other corporate news, Reed Hastings, the co-founder who brought us DVD mailers, quietly transitioned from executive chair to non-executive chair. It’s more ceremonial than sensational, but it marks a passing of the torch to the current co-CEOs, who clearly have things under control—if this earnings report is any indication. ❤️ Wall Street Loves It—for Now Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX shares are up 10% year to date, which looks especially shiny next to the Nasdaq’s NASDAQ:IXIC 16% drop. While tech has wobbled under tariff pressure and chip-stock drama , Netflix is moving in the opposite direction—proof that profitability, pricing power, and content diversity are still pulling in fresh capital inflows. But don’t get too comfortable. If tariff fears escalate or ad momentum stalls, Netflix may need to prove all over again that it’s more than just a pandemic darling turned pricing juggernaut. 🎥 Final Frame: Chill Now, but Keep One Eye on Macro Netflix’s Q1 numbers were promising — but that was just before Trump’s sweeping tariffs rattled global markets. Added levies, recession risk, and shifting ad budgets could all become plot twists in Netflix’s otherwise upbeat storyline. For now, though, it’s lights, camera, rally. Your turn: Are you still bullish on Netflix, or are Trump’s tariffs and economic drama changing your channel? Let us know what’s on your watchlist.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by TradingView
10
Gold - 7000 USD by 2027 (must see, sell here!)Gold is extremely bullish, but nothing lasts forever. To trade gold profitably, you need to always trade with a trend. Clearly the trend is bullish, so we want to open only long positions and avoid short positions to increase the probability of success, and it doesn't matter if you are an intraday or swing trader. When can this huge uptrend end? The price of gold is inside this huge ascending parallel channel on the monthly chart. This channel has a total of 5 touches, and we are waiting for the 6th touch to take action. I made a calculation, and gold will hit the top of the channel at around 7000 USD in around 2027. This channel is on the LOG scale, so to draw it, you need to switch from linear to LOG. This ascending channel started in 1993 and currently has 32 years! From the Elliott Wave perspective, we are in wave 3, so expect a wave 4 pullback, probably this or next year. This upcoming pullback will drop the price by 20% to 30% based on historical data. But right now I am very bullish and expect much higher prices! Please let me know in the comment section what your ultimate profit target for gold is. Are you also bullish? Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xanrox
144
S&P 500 - Key Levels and April 7-11 Weekly Candle StructureApril 7-11 will easily be remembered in 2025 as one of the craziest weeks in modern history. Intraday swings were face ripping all from a Monday "fake news" becoming Wednesday "real news" with the US pausing tariffs for 90 days 5500 major resistance on S&P 4800 major support on S&P I believe the market will struggle to provide any clear direction in the coming weeks without some shift in narrative (for better or worse). I'm sure most traders are hoping for an optimistic tone but be prepared to be disappointed as the world's alliances and economies are being strained with massive uncertainty and angst. There are trading opportunities in the short-term, but I'm not taking any major risks. If I can survive, the upside will be easier and a pleasant surprise. I expect the weekly candles to dance inside the April 7-11 low and high levels and hopefully it provides some ventilation to a VIX > 30
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
11
GOLD Trending Higher - Can buyers push toward 3,300$?OANDA:XAUUSD is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, with price action consistently respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. The recent bullish momentum indicates that buyers are in control, suggesting a potential continuation. The price has recently broken above a key resistance zone and may come back for a retest. If this level holds as support, it would reinforce the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of a move toward the 3,300 target , which aligns with the channel’s upper boundary. As long as the price remains above this support zone, the bullish outlook stays intact. However, a failure to hold above this level could invalidate the bullish scenario and increase the likelihood of a pullback toward the channel’s lower boundary. Remember, always confirm your setups and use proper risk management.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TrendDiva
167
The Charts Wall Street Watches – And Why Crypto Should Too📉 Crisis or Rotation? Understanding Bonds Before the Bitcoin Reveal 🔍 Hi everyone 👋 Before we dive into the next major Bitcoin post (the 'Bitcoin Reveal' is coming up, yes!), let's take a moment to unpack something critical most crypto traders overlook — the world of bonds . Why does this matter? Because the bond market often signals risk... before crypto even reacts. We're going to walk through 4 charts I've posted recently — not the usual BTC or altcoin setups, but key pieces of the credit puzzle . So here’s a simple breakdown: 1️⃣ BKLN – Leveraged Loans = Floating Risk 🟠 These are loans to risky companies with floating interest rates. When rates go up and liquidity is flowing, these do well. But when the economy weakens? They’re often the first to fall. 📌 Key level: $20.31 This level held in COVID (2020), the 2022 bank scare... and now again in 2025. ⚠️ Watch for a breakdown here = real credit stress. Right now? Concerned, but no panic. 2️⃣ HYG – Junk Bonds = Risk Appetite Tracker 🔴 Junk bonds are fixed-rate debt from companies with poor credit. They pay high interest — if they survive. When HYG bounces, it means investors still want risk. 📌 Fear line: 75.72 Held in 2008, 2020 (COVID), and again now. Price rebounded — suggesting risk appetite is trying to return . 3️⃣ LQD – Investment Grade = Quality Credit 💼 LQD holds bonds from blue-chip companies like Apple, Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson. These are lower-risk and seen as safer during stress. 📊 Chart still shows an ascending structure since 2003, with recent pressure on support. 📌 Support: 103.81 Holding well. Rebound looks solid. Unless we break 100, this says: "No panic here." 4️⃣ TLT – U.S. Treasuries = Trust in the Government 🇺🇸 This is the BIG one. TLT = Long-term U.S. bonds (20+ yrs) = safe haven assets . But since 2022, that trust has been visibly broken . A key trendline going back to 2004 was lost — and is now resistance. 📉 Price is in a clear descending channel . 📌 My expectation: One final flush to $76 or even $71–68 …before a potential macro reversal toward $112–115 🔍 The Big Picture – What Are Bonds Telling Us? | Chart | Risk Level | Signal | |--------|------------|--------| | BKLN | High | Credit stress rising, but support holding | | HYG | High | Risk appetite bouncing at a key level | | LQD | Medium | Rotation into quality, no panic | | TLT | Low | Trust in Treasuries fading, support being tested | If BKLN breaks $20... If HYG fails to hold 75.72... If LQD dips under 100... If TLT falls to all-time lows... That’s your crisis signal . Until then — the system is still rotating, not collapsing. So, Should We Panic? 🧠 Not yet. But we’re watching closely. Next: We add Bitcoin to the chart. Because if the traditional system starts breaking... 🟧 Bitcoin is the alternative. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 📌 Next Post: BTC vs Treasuries – The Inversion Nobody Saw Coming Because if the system is shaking… Bitcoin is Plan B. Stay ready.
AMEX:BKLNEducation
by FX_Professor
14