Top 10 Rookie Trading Mistakes (And How to Laugh at Your Own)So you’ve just discovered trading. Maybe it started with a Reddit thread. Maybe someone said “trading Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA is like printing money.” Or maybe you just liked the name “Shiba Inu” and figured memecoins was a good investment thesis.
Either way, welcome. This is where dreams are made, lost, rebought on leverage, and then tweeted about.
The markets are ruthless, but also educational — if you’re humble enough to learn and bold enough to laugh when you inevitably light your first $100 on fire by accidentally shorting Apple NASDAQ:AAPL during a breakout.
This article is for you. The new trader. The (overconfident?) beginner. Let’s talk about the top 10 rookie trading mistakes — and how to laugh at your own before the market does it for you.
1️⃣ Mistaking Luck for Skill (aka “Call Me Baby Buffett”)
Your first trade is a win. Your second is too. Maybe it’s a meme stock . Maybe it’s a hot IPO. Either way, you’re convinced you’ve cracked the matrix.
You tell your friends: “I just have a feel for this stuff.”
What actually happened: You got lucky in a trending market. And now you're about to go full Titanic on a position you didn’t research, because hey — you're "on a roll."
What you can do insead, and probably have a laugh about it years later, is screenshot your account right now in your very early steps. Frame it. Label it: Exhibit A in Emotional Risk Management.
2️⃣ The Revenge Trade: “I’ll Win It Back”
You took a loss. A big one. Your first real slap from the market. So what do you do? Walk away? Reflect? Journal it?
Nah. You go in twice as hard on the next setup. Same ticker. Same direction. More size.
Spoiler alert: It doesn’t end well.
That type of spiraling behavior usually happens when you think the market owes you something. It doesn’t. Not even an apology.
Imagine explaining your decision to a judge. “Your Honor, I lost money shorting Tesla, so naturally I doubled down five minutes later.” Case dismissed — and that’s why revenge trading is so dangerous .
3️⃣ FOMO FOMO FOMO
A green candle pops up on your watchlist. It’s moving. Fast. You missed the breakout but you still click “buy” because you’re not missing this train.
You get in. It tops. You hold. It drops. You panic. It rebounds… just after you sell.
Classic rookie cycle.
Why does this happen? The fear of missing out turns off your brain faster than a margin call. Call it what it is — chasing. Say it out loud like it’s therapy: “Hi, this is Patrick and I like to buy things 10% too late.” Maybe it helps.
4️⃣ “I’m Married to This Trade”
It started with a spark. The chart looked good. The RSI whispered sweet nothings. You thought, “This could be the one.”
So you bought. Then bought again. And when it dipped harder than your last relationship, you said, “It’s okay, we’re just going through a rough patch.”
Before you knew it, you weren’t trading — you were in a toxic relationship with a ticker.
You’ve abandoned your edge for emotion. Confirmation bias kicks in, and instead of managing risk, you’re managing denial. You stop analyzing the chart and start defending it like it’s your firstborn.
If you’re talking about a stock (or anything else on a chart) the way your friend talks about their ex — “It just needs time, I know it’ll come back” — you’re not trading. You’re coping.
5️⃣ All In, All the Time
Risk management? Never heard of that. You found a setup that “can’t fail,” so you went 100% in. On margin. On a Friday.
What could go wrong?
Answer: Everything. Especially when your trade gaps against you on Monday morning after Trump has said tariffs are changing once again.
That’s when you know you’re mistaking conviction for strategy. They’re not the same.
6️⃣ Ignoring the Bigger Picture
You nailed the 15-minute chart. Gorgeous breakout. But somehow, you forgot to check the daily — where your “breakout” is just a lower high in a brutal downtrend.
Oops.
Think about whether you've got tunnel vision. You went along with your short-term bias instead of checking the bigger picture when things are different.
What you can do instead, is make a rule: before every trade, zoom out. Literally. Leave no timeframe unexamined (at least up to the daily frame).
7️⃣ Trading Every Day Like It’s the Super Bowl
New traders think they have to trade every day. Every single session. Every little move.
And when there’s no good setup? They make one up, trying to whip up trendlines to justify their trading.
What happens next: Boredom trades. Overtrading.
Why it happens: You're addicted to the action, not the outcome.
What can you do instead? Write down the number of trades you made last week. Multiply it by the average commission you paid. Now imagine what you could’ve bought instead. And, what could be even better, consider taking a lesson in patience .
8️⃣ Blind Faith in Indicators
The RSI is at 18. The MACD just crossed. Stochastic says “maybe.”
So you buy. No price action. No trend. Just… vibes and indicators.
Result: You become a victim of the “indicator trap” — relying so heavily on these lines you forget to read the actual chart — momentum, market sentiment, broader technicals, and fundamentals.
What’s a better approach is to treat your indicators like seasoning, not the main dish. The best trades come from confluence, not wishful thinking dressed up as technical analysis.
9️⃣ The Trading Journal You Never Wrote
If you can’t remember why you entered a trade, you’re not at your best. Here’s a pro tip:
Keep a trading journal . One that records your thesis, entry, stop, target, and outcome. You know — the boring stuff that makes you better.
Why is that important? Journaling builds discipline. Patterns. Self-awareness. It’s never too late to start your journal!
🔟 Expecting to Get Rich Quick
This is the big one. The rookie mindset that kills most portfolios: I’m gonna turn $500 into $5,000 in a month.
You won’t. Sorry.
And even if you do, you won’t keep it.
Trading rewards patience, process, and preservation. Not YOLO bets and delusions of grandeur.
Try looking at your P&L like a diet. If you expect six-pack abs in a week, you’ll burn out and crash your progress. If you focus on habits? You’ll outlive the hype.
📚 Conclusion: Every Trader Starts Stupid
Let’s be clear — all of us have made these mistakes, even the big shots out there that run billion-dollar funds. The only difference between a rookie and a pro is how fast you learn from them. Or better yet — how fast you can laugh at them, document them, and evolve.
Because the truth is, the market is the most expensive comedy club on Earth. And every trade is a new punchline.
So if you're new, mess up. Take notes. Stay humble. And above all — enjoy the chaos. One day you’ll look back at your Doge CRYPTOCAP:DOGE top-buy with fondness.
After all, it’s only a mistake if you didn’t learn. Otherwise, it’s just tuition paid for by your trading account.
What’s a mistake we didn’t mention? Share your tips, tricks, mistakes, and lessons in the comment section!
Community ideas
UJ Could Tumble Back To 140 If Bears Take Expanding RangeToday FX:USDJPY Sellers make a Breakout of the Rising Support of the Expanding Range it's been trading in since the Low that started the range back on April 22nd.
An Expanding Range is typically considered a Continuation Pattern suggesting that if Sellers can hold price under the Rising Support, we can suspect JPY to overcome USD in this pair pulling price down continuing the Downtrend it was in prior to entering the pattern.
Once the Breakout of Consolidation is Validated, a Breakout & Retest of the Rising Support could deliver potential Short Opportunities to take price down to the Low of the Range.
Fundamentally, there is a lot of worry about the fall out of Tariff Talks with important trade partners with the 90-Day grace period soon coming to an end, weakening labor market potentially signaling "Stagflation" and additionally, it is suspected that Trump's Tax Cut Bill could add $3 - $5 Trillion to the $36.2 Trillion debt the US is already suffering from, further harming the Dollar.
-https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3RT018:0-dollar-on-defensive-as-traders-eye-trump-tax-bill-g7-currency-talks/
-https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:459470:0-dollar-extends-losses/
Usd/Jpy intra-day Analysis 20-May-2025Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
5-20-25 WARNING : Bitcoin Sets Up MASSIVE Double-Top WarningI highlighted this incredible price/technical pattern in my morning Plan Your Trade video. But, I thought it was important enough to create a separate video highlighting this incredible Double-Top warning and to try to tell all of my followers to start actively protecting capital over the next 2-3+ weeks.
As much as I would like to say this won't happen (meaning some type of crisis event or global financial crisis) causing a collapse in Bitcoin (and the US/Global markets) - but I believe the continued constraints on the global markets, related to Trump's policies and attempts to reduce US govt spending) will act as a devaluation event for global economies.
Think about it for a minute...
1. If the US is able to remove $500-900 Billion in fraud/waste/NGO spending (of which, a portion of that spending is dedicated to supporting global initiatives/spending), this will result in a contraction (in some form) for some global economies.
2. If the US is able to negotiate more favorable tariff rates for US goods supplied to the world (where foreign nations reduce or eliminate tariffs on US goods), this will also act as a reduction in economic income for many foreign nations.
3. These combined and continued efforts to restructure the US economy into a strong and more dynamic global economic driver (more fairly balanced in terms of global trade) will come at the expense of breaking away from what has traditionally been untouched.
This breaking of the past, in terms of what nations expected related to US spending and tariffs on US Goods, may represent a 15-25% (or more) contraction in foreign economic activity.
If this disruption from "what was normal" results in the US Fed, or global central banks, taking emergency measures to address short-falls in their economies, this could prompt a series of events that could result in a broad devaluation type of event (very similar to what happened after COVID in 2022-2023).
That event was prompted by the US Fed raising rates trying to stop inflation. This event could be the result of slower/lower economic outputs/expectations related to the changing tariff rates and the reduction in US spending throughout the world. Central Banks and regional governments may attempt to provide some type of capital stimulus to transition through this phase - but I see that as "building a bigger bubble - just waiting to pop".
The smart move for global central banks is to follow the US's lead and start to move towards more austerity/accountability regarding their own economies/spending and attempt to let the devaluation price phase play out.
Either way, time will tell if I'm correct or not.
You have been warned. IMO, you have about 3-6 weeks before BTCUSD potentially tops and may roll into a very strong breakdown phase.
Get Some.
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3 Reasons Arista Networks Could Soon Rally SignificantlyIn 2023, we covered Arista Networks NYSE:ANET , calling it part of the internet’s "bedrock" but rating it a Hold due to valuation concerns. Since then, ANET has outperformed the S&P 500, proving our call wrong.
Recently, ANET’s stock has dipped alongside broader market declines. However, we believe the selloff presents a buying opportunity, given ANET’s strong positioning in AI and cloud growth. Here’s why:
1. Strong Growth Drivers
ANET’s revenue comes from three segments: Core (65%), Cognitive Adjacencies (18%), and Cognitive Network (17%). Its hardware (Ethernet switches, routers) and software (EOS) are critical for hyperscalers (48% of revenue), enterprises (35%), and providers (17%). With AI and cloud capex surging, ANET is well-positioned for sustained demand.
2. Best-in-Class Margins
ANET’s net margins have nearly doubled since 2020, reaching ~42% TTM. Operating leverage allows revenue growth to flow efficiently to the bottom line. While R&D spending must remain competitive, ANET’s high-margin business supports strong earnings.
3. Attractive Valuation
Despite premium multiples (14x sales, 35x earnings), ANET trades near 5-year lows relative to historical trends. If growth (projected ~20%) and margins hold, a re-rating toward its average P/E (~40x) could drive shares toward $100+.
Risks
- Customer concentration (Meta + Microsoft = 35% of revenue).
- Margin pressure if R&D spending lags.
- Multiple compression in a weak market.
Verdict: Buy
ANET’s growth, margins, and valuation make it compelling. While risks exist, the upside outweighs them.
Good luck out there!
Golden Cross? No Thanks!! Here’s How to Get In Early.📉 “Golden Cross? No Thanks. Here’s How to Get In Early.”
By FXProfessor
Everyone’s hyped about the Golden Cross again...
📰 “Bullish Signal!”
📈 “50 SMA crossed the 200!”
🎉 “Party time!”
Let me stop you right there.
If you’re waiting for that cross to go long —
You’re not late.
You’re definitely late.
The Golden Cross is a lagging indication.
It’s the afterparty. The smart money already had the drinks and left.
🔍 Here's the deal:
✅ Golden Cross forms after the move
✅ Price is usually already up double digits
✅ Sometimes it triggers right before a top
✅ Even EMAs (which I prefer) are still confirmation tools
✅ The real edge? Structure. Trendlines. Pressure zones.
📊 What I use instead:
-Custom EMAs that react faster
-My signature parallelogram method for early pressure
-Focus on trendlines and structure
-Above all — logic, not hype
- Fundamentals first!
For example, while the Golden Cross just printed, I was already watching $74,394 and $79,000.
Why? Because pressure builds before indicators react.
That's where the best entries live.
So next time someone posts
“Golden Cross confirmed!” 😏 Just smile and remember:
By the time the cross lights up, I’m already halfway to the next target.
Use EMAs if you like. But structure comes first.
That’s where the party starts.
One Love,
The FXProfessor 🧠📈
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome people who care about the TRADER FIRST!
How to Draw Trendline in Changing MarketHey Traders so here I wanted to illustrate how you catch the change from Uptrend to Downtrend on the charts. You never know for sure if the trend has completely changed but basically look for 3 bars that you draw a straight line and connect them together. You don't need indicators you just need to be able to draw a straight line. Buy or Sell when market touches trendline. Technical Analysis is a little bit like Art but alot of time it can work really well if you draw correctly!
So in uptrend you would be buyer at the trendline.
In downtrend you would be seller at the trendline.
Always use Risk Management! (just in case your wrong in your analysis)
Hope This Helps Your Trading
Clifford
Corn at a Historical Turning Point? Corn futures are currently at a technically significant juncture. After an extended bearish phase from the yearly highs, price has reached a key monthly demand zone between 445 and 435 cents, an area that has historically triggered major reversals. This level is further validated by technical signals indicating potential exhaustion of the bearish momentum: the price action is showing rejection candles, and the RSI is recovering from oversold territory, creating room for a possible upside move.
However, it’s important to consider the seasonal context, which doesn’t favor an immediate reversal. Historical data shows that May, June, and July are statistically the weakest months for Corn. In particular, July tends to be highly bearish, with an average performance of -22% over the last 20 years and -36% over the last 10. This means that while the technical setup may suggest a potential bounce, seasonal pressure may continue to cap prices in the short term, making a sustained rally unlikely before August.
The COT positioning adds another layer of insight. Non-commercial traders (speculators) have recently closed a significant number of long positions and added shorts, reflecting strong bearish sentiment. In contrast, commercials (hedgers) have increased long exposure and decreased shorts, signaling optimism and a willingness to accumulate at these levels. This divergence often marks contrarian opportunities, especially when speculators are heavily short and commercials are heavily long—often a sign of a market bottom forming.
🧠 Summary:
Corn is sitting on major structural support, with early signs of a potential rebound. Yet, the seasonality remains bearish through mid-summer. The COT report, however, supports a bullish medium-term outlook, particularly heading into August–September, when prices historically begin to climb decisively.
🔔 Trading Outlook:
In the short term, tactical longs can be considered if the 445–435 area holds, with tight risk management. Initial targets are set at 465 and 472. The true strategic setup, however, is more likely to emerge in the coming months, with August as the key window for a sustained upside move supported by both seasonal and COT positioning.
USDJPY: Very Bearish Setup ExplainedI spotted a lot of bearish confirmations on 📉USDJPY on a 4H time frame:
A significant head and shoulders pattern was formed, and its neckline is broken.
As the right shoulder formed, a distinct horizontal trading range emerged, which also saw support being violated.
The neckline serves as an important horizontal support, and the market has broken through all of these levels.
We can expect further declines, with the next support level at 143.
The Invisible Hand in Crypto: Are We Just Puppets?You think you’re trading based on your analysis?
Maybe you’re just thinking that.
The crypto market might be far more controlled than you realize — here’s how, when, and why .
Hello✌
Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material.
🎯 Analytical Insight on Ethereum:
Following its impressive recent rally, ETH continues to show strength, supported by high volume and a clear bullish market structure. A key daily support—confluent with the Fibonacci zone and an ascending trendline—remains intact. My main target stands at the psychological $3,000 level, implying ~16% upside potential if momentum sustains. 🔍
Now , let's dive into the educational section,
📊 TradingView Tools: Decoding the Minds of the Whales
In a market where price moves often feel pre-scripted, precision tools aren’t a luxury — they’re survival gear. TradingView offers indicators like Accumulation/Distribution, On-Balance Volume, Smart Money Concepts, and Liquidity Heatmaps that help you spot where big money is entering or exiting . These tools, especially on higher timeframes, can reveal underlying accumulation or distribution before major moves happen. For instance, if OBV rises while price remains flat, whales might be silently building positions. Also, indicators like Whale Alerts, based on on-chain analysis, can show large transactions often tied to upcoming volatility. Combine this with tools like Volume Profile or classic trendlines, and you’re no longer chasing price — you’re anticipating it.
🎯 Collective Behavior or Whale-Orchestrated Moves?
Markets — especially crypto — haven’t moved on simple supply and demand for a long time. Many of the price spikes or dumps you see aren’t organic; they’re orchestrated. Big players with massive volumes steer liquidity to where they want it.
🧠 Retail Psychology: A Weapon in Bigger Hands
Why do you always enter after a pump? Why does the market bounce right after you panic sell? These are not coincidences. Fear and greed are weapons. Smart money knows exactly how to trigger emotional trades from retailers, turning those reactions into their profits.
🔄 The Recycled Trap Scenarios
Here’s a classic: sudden green candle to trigger FOMO, followed by a slight dip, more retail buys in, then a sharp dump — liquidity collected. If this sounds familiar, it’s because it keeps happening. Those who spot it early survive.
📉 It’s About Liquidity, Not Your Support Line
Whales don’t care about your trendlines. They care about liquidity. If you know where most long or short positions are placed, you can often predict the next market move. TradingView indicators help identify liquidation zones — follow them.
🕹 You’re Just a Pawn — Unless You Learn the Map
If you’re just reacting candle by candle, you’re losing. But when you start thinking like whales, understanding their setups, you flip from pawn to player. Sentiment tools, volume flow, and behavioral indicators are your way out of the trap.
📌 Final Words
If you thought your analysis was behind your trades — think again. Smart money plays by a plan, and TradingView’s tools help you see the blueprint. Don’t be manipulated — learn to move like the movers.
always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. That being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post for further details 📜✅.
Give me some energy !!
✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box.
Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
NAS 100 I Cautiously Bullish Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** NAS100 Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
BTC and Crypto Forecast Bull RunBTC current sitation:
- Awaiting retracement to OTE level
- Once we get retracement, we look at ALTS for the start of the ALT seasons.
Coins to focus on:
- Specifically coins that are already at all time lows.
- Coins that have been around for a long time
- Coins that have a strong community backing
Listen carefully!
How to Manage Slippage on TradingViewThis tutorial explains what slippage is and how it relates to market and limit orders as well as times when you might expect higher than normal slippage.
Disclaimer:
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
Stop-loss orders are submitted as market orders and may be executed at prices significantly different from the intended stop level, particularly during periods of high volatility or limited liquidity. Stop-limit orders carry the risk of not being executed at all if the market does not reach the limit price. It is important to understand that neither type of order guarantees execution at a specific price. Market conditions can change rapidly due to scheduled or unexpected news events, and even quiet markets may experience sudden disruptions. These factors can affect trade execution in ways that may not be predictable or controllable.
The TradingView Show with TradeStation: Bull Market or Fake Out?Join us for a timely TradingView live stream with David Russell, Head of Global Market Strategy at TradeStation, as we break down the latest rebound in the markets and what it could mean for traders and investors. In this session, we’ll dive into:
What the recent bounce off the lows might signal about a potential bull market return
How global trade dynamics and tariff news are shaping asset prices
Key charts, indicators, and technical patterns to watch for signs of sustained momentum
Essential strategies for navigating market recoveries, corrections, and upcoming Federal Reserve decisions
Bonus: Discover our latest broker integration update with TradeStation—now supporting equity options trading directly on TradingView. This upgrade brings advanced tools like the strategy builder, options chain sheet, and volatility analysis to your fingertips, making it easier to trade through uncertain market conditions.
This session is sponsored by TradeStation, whose vision is to provide the ultimate online trading platform for self-directed traders and investors across equities, equity index options, futures, and futures options markets. Equities, equity options, and commodity futures services are offered by TradeStation Securities Inc., member NYSE, FINRA, CME, and SIPC.
Disclosures from TradeStation:
www.tradestation.com
www.tradestation.com
Tesla Stock Soars 60% in 4-Week Winning Streak. Should You Buy?With global trade tensions easing and the outlook clearing up a bit, especially with next month’s robotaxi launch, Tesla bulls are jumping right in to buy the dip and ride out a four-week rally. Is there more to that? Let’s find out.
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA just pulled off a move most gym bros would call “bulking season.”
The stock is up 60% over the past month. That’s not a typo — it’s a full-on, pedal-to-the-metal rally that’s left shorts scrambling and bulls fist-pumping like it’s 2020 again.
In just four weeks, Elon Musk’s EV maker ripped higher with the kind of velocity typically reserved for SpaceX rockets or Dogecoin bonanzas.
But now that we’re at cruising altitude (and even dipped a little bit again first thing on Monday), the obvious question floats in: Should you still be buying this? Or is this just another one of the speculative dopamine-driven dead-cat bounces?
Let’s plug in, charge up, and break it down.
💡 From Earnings Letdown to Elon Euphoria
The move started innocently enough — with bad earnings. The first-quarter report disappointed Wall Street — revenue came in light. Margins shrank. Deliveries were meh. (Mandatory “keep an eye on the earnings calendar ” remark!) Most companies would’ve been punished after such a showing.
But Tesla is not like most companies.
Instead of spiraling, shares soared 18% the week after the report — because, surprise, Tesla said it will stick to its promises. The company reiterated plans for a lower-priced EV (a Tesla for the masses), and doubled down on its robotaxi rollout, the Cybercab, slated to launch in Austin, Texas, this June.
Cue the retail stampede.
Investors didn’t see a company in trouble. They saw a growth story still in motion, with enough Muskian magic to keep hope (and valuations) alive. Tesla didn’t need to crush numbers — it just had to convince traders it hadn’t stalled out.
Mission accomplished.
🤙 Macro Tailwinds and China’s “Chill Pill”
Tesla didn’t rally in a vacuum (though that sounds like an Elon side project). The broader market has been in risk-on mode lately , helped by:
Easing China–US trade tensions , which is great news for Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory and its global supply chain.
A less hawkish Fed narrative against the backdrop of cooling inflation , making growth stocks slightly less allergic to rising rates.
Renewed optimism around AI and automation, both of which Tesla has front-row seats to.
Tesla benefits from all of these themes. It’s not just a car company — it’s a tangled web of EVs, robotics, self-driving tech, and Elon’s very public moonshots. When macro winds are favorable, Tesla catches more than its fair share of breeze.
📊 Technically Speaking: Breakouts and Burnouts
From a chart perspective, the move has been textbook FOMO.
Tesla sliced through its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages like butter. Volume popped. Momentum soared. And it finally reclaimed the $300-350 zone that acted like a gravitational sinkhole for months. In other words, Tesla is back above the $1 trillion valuation handle.
Is there a flipside, though? The chart’s showing signs of overextension. RSI is flirting with overbought territory. Momentum is hot — but not sustainable forever.
That doesn’t mean you short it. It just means don’t chase it like it’s a Black Friday deal on dual monitor setup.
🔎 Valuation? Let’s (Not) Talk About That
Oh right, valuation. That inconvenient little thing.
Tesla is still trading at eye-watering multiples. Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio? North of 170. Tesla’s profits peaked in 2022 and have since been tumbling. But who cares — compared to traditional automakers, Tesla is operating on a completely different planet.
Analysts are eyeballing earnings per share for 2025 to land at $3.30. Even if markets were to slap a 50x forward P/E ratio, it would give Tesla a valuation of $165 a share and still be at a premium.
And to be fair, bulls will say that’s exactly the point. Tesla isn’t a car company. It’s an AI platform with a vision for the future. An energy business. A robotaxi empire-in-waiting. Maybe even a sentient Mars colony someday.
So… the price doesn’t have to make sense — if you buy the vision.
But if you’re looking for fundamentals, well, they’re still catching up.
🚗 The Robotaxi Wildcard
Let’s talk robotaxis.
Tesla’s robotaxi launch next month could be a game-changer — or a meme. If it works, and the Cybercab is a success, even in a limited beta, it will validate one of Elon’s long-promised, never-quite-delivered moonshots . It opens the door to software revenue, recurring cash flows, and the holy grail of auto tech: mobility-as-a-service.
If it flops? Well, it won’t be the first time. But this time, the market has already priced in success.
That’s risky.
🧐 Should You Be Buying?
No one ever went broke taking profits. And if you rode this 60% move, pat yourself on the back and consider trimming. It doesn’t make you a bad long-term investor. It makes you a responsible one.
If you missed it? Don’t FOMO in at the top (but also — who’s to say that’s the top?). Tesla’s chart has looked like this before — only to collapse in a pile of overhyped press releases and supply chain “hiccups.” But if you see a pullback or at least some consolidation? Great trades are about patience, not hot takes.
❤️ Bottom Line
Tesla’s four-week tear is impressive. It’s got narrative fuel, technical follow-through, and macro support. But that doesn’t mean it’s an all-you-can-eat rally buffet.
Tesla is still a volatile beast with sky-high expectations and a CEO who can tank the stock with a tweet or an Oval Office speech. It’s also a company that might reinvent urban transport next quarter.
So what’s the play? Are you ramping up your long bets on the volatile EV stock or you're more of a waiting-for-the-pullback trader? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Tariff timeline: how Trump’s shifts hit the Nasdaq 100This chart tracks key US tariff decisions and rhetoric from February to May 2025 and their direct impact on the Nasdaq 100. It highlights the sharp escalation in tariffs against China and other trade partners, followed by market volatility and brief rebounds tied to policy softening. Notable events include the April 2 national emergency, China’s retaliation, and the May 12 tariff pause deal. The Nasdaq’s movements mirror investor reactions to uncertainty, diplomatic signals, and easing measures, showing how trade policy remains a major force behind short-term equity market swings.
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GOLD - Bullish Trend Continuation w/ Bat Pattern & Complex PBGold has been on a tear for sometime now & well, you know what they say, all good things must come to an end. In saying end, we don't necessarily mean a forever end, but perhaps sometimes a break.
After failing to make a new high, it seems like Gold has reached it's excess or exhaustion phase & is beginning to show signs of relief. If this relief were to continue, not only do we have a good structure level to look for buys at, but it's also accompanied with a potential bullish bat pattern.
Please leave any questions or comments below & if you'd like to share your views from either a fundamental or technical perspective, please do so as I love the conversation.
Akil
Will the USD Bears come back? Stock Market just pulling back?In this video I go over the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. Will the USD bears come pouring back in or give up the previous low on the EUR/USD...
Some markers I'm watching is a "hidden" divergence on the MACD and it's potential signal for continued bullish strength for the EUR/USD, especially with the U.S. credit rating getting lowered by Moodys.
I'm also watching for a potential reversal to the stock market's massive rally the last couple of weeks. Is this a true reversal or just a major pullback in the grand scheme of things? The last 2 weeks of May will be interesting to watch develop.
As always, Good Luck & Trade Safe.
BTC - New Impulse Soon!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 BTC has been bullish, trading within the rising channel marked in orange. 🟧
In a typical trend, corrections are usually bearish. 🔻
However, in BTC’s case, the correction phases marked in red are flat — a strong signal that the bulls are in control 💪 and not allowing the bears to trigger a classic pullback.
As long as BTC holds within the rising orange channel, we expect the next impulse phase to kick off soon 🚀 — aiming for the $115,000 round number. 🎯
This move will be confirmed once BTC breaks above the current flat correction zone marked in red. ✅
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Gold Market Update: Bulls Still in Control?Gold Market Update: Bulls Still in Control?
Gold has been volatile, requiring close attention. Following our previous analysis, gold declined from its last bearish pattern, dropping from 3230 to 3120.
However, yesterday it rebounded sharply, surging from 3120 to 3251 despite the absence of any news—an indication that bullish momentum remains strong.
The predominant trend is solid, but heavy manipulation and the substantial holdings by central banks and hedge funds continue to prevent a deeper decline.
The chances remain high that this movement is part of a bearish correction. While it may look unstable, but another rise could still be possible.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️