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DJI(4H): POTENTIAL TRAPIn this chart I dig deeper into price action and trends on the DJI on the 4H time frame, exposing a potential trap - mainly for new traders and some seasoned traders. What you don't see is most important. Lots of indicators in here - requires study. I use them only to expose what's happening. In other charts/videos I've shown that the DJI is weakening based on three successive weaknesses in the ATR price action. Trends are generally more important than price-points. Price has collapsed a bit but is now in what I think is a critical zone . There are no 'predictions' here; only probabilistic estimates based on my experience. The zone of congestion is a red rag to the bulls and let's be real; this is still a bull market. I don't expect the bulls to just roll over easily. Only extreme force would decimate them and nothing like that is seen on the horizon at this point in time. The obvious broadening wedge is a sign of panic due to the distance from the ATR (4H) line. In other words this is not a burn down of price, else the ATR line would have followed closer to price. The alternate ABCD is only indicative . It is contrary to conventional 'teachings', which says there are only 6 types of ABCD. The reality is that ABCD's do what they want and form various shapes, the main element is AB=CD. Weekend Wall Street (DJI) not available on Tradingview, already indicates that the bulls are getting ready to charge with price action developing north by 100 points. This is just the ' pawing of the ground ' perhaps, so price movement on Sunday night 300 points south wouldn't mean much. They can kick up a lot of dust before launching north. I think the important thing here is to avoid 'obsession' with the 'instrumentation' i.e. indicators. Fly the plane, which means don't get fried in this market. The human eye and brain are better than all indicators, when used properly of course. 🙄😁 Indicators only give us an idea based on historical data. No indicator(s) 'predicts' the future for you. What we can't see is future price action, which is what will better determine what's likely to happen next. Therefore do not rely on anything said in this educational post for decision-making on entry of a live position. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
EURUSD - The Trend Never EndsDon't try and create an ending point in your head for when you think a trend will finish, this will only cause you more pain. It is very unlikely price will leave the station without grabbing liquidity/orders from its highs, expect a push up into prior highs before a huge sell-off, if there is one. I will be looking for short intra-day buys next week and will keep you updated on the progress. Retail is selling this pair hard at 71%, banks love to mess around with retail, don't get caught in the traps.
Short
by AlkalineFX
GBPUSD - Liquidity TrapStill looking at a trap for Liquidity on Cable going into this week. There are some nice lows that I'm looking for failure around providing a high probability move to the upside (targeting the FTA - First Trouble Area). Why do I trade these liquidity traps? Reason 1 - Because when price breaks structure, the breakout traders have their pending orders (Sell/Buy Stops) activated to which the institutional players will trap by failing the break and pulling price back slightly to close above/below previous structure, invalidating the breakout traders ideas so they will either hit stop or pull out of their order due to fear or rules. Reason 2 - Because any retail traders who are currently still holding positions usually have their stops placed beyond structure/swing points creating a mass of orders. If you're not aware if you're short the market you have to buy back your position and if you're long the market you have to sell back your position. For both of these reasons this creates a high volume area of transactions in the market creating high liquidity. If you study what the big players do at these areas, watch your strike rate grow! If you want to learn more about how we trade at Xclusive Trading, either message us or check out our membership plan online: www.xclusivetrading-groupltd.com
by Kieran_Duff
EURUSD - Liquidity TrapI see a potential Liquidity Trap above this high on EU. There's going to be a lot of stops above this high as It's a fair swing point and as we know retail traders love having their stops above/below swing points. If we can fail to close above this level I will short to the FTA highlighted by the horizontal line. "Why are you certain there will be a reaction here?" - you might ask. Well if short traders have their stops above this high, as price squeezes and stops them out they will have to buy their way out of the order which provides a mass of buy orders or liquidity to the institutional players who need that liquidity to get their full positions in the market. They will then enter short to squeeze out any long traders who have traded the breakout or predicted the change in trend. And that's why we're in and out of these trades and will only trade to the FTA because you often find once price hits the FTA it can go either way.
by Kieran_Duff
2
EURUSD - Selling Trap CompleteMy bias going into next week is bearish for this pair but this can flip at any point depending on the price action we see. Sellers have been trapped twice now as shown, banks may now have enough liquidity to create a strong move to the downside, similar to my GBPUSD analysis. I will be patient with this pair and allow the structure to shift before I get involved. If we see bullish momentum breaking the horizontal level marked then I will disregard my bearish bias and look for a buying opportunity into the previous highs.
Short
by AlkalineFX
6
Caution: S&P Crash was a bear trap - Going to All Time HighsToday's 6% move down was not coincidence, it was setup as a bear trap to fuel the rest of the capital needed to reach all time highs. I am not a bull and I have been wanting us to test the March lows just as much as any other bear, but I'm also not blind to what the market is setting up. This is just my opinion and you should trade based on your own judgement. Look at the chart and see how perfectly today's price landed on the lifeline trend line at the bottom of the channel. The bulls ran out of room at the top of the channel, and had to move it all the way down to setup for the remaining move to all time highs. The perma-bears have started to capitulate because this correction rally seems fake and over extended (which it is) but bulls must keep bears interested. So today the bears got what they needed to stay in the game (hope of more carnage and corrections all the way down to March lows) and bulls got what they needed, space to make their final move to all time highs (rockets have been re-fueled and ready for take-off). Note: I believe the only thing to knock the market out of the channel is actual news (i.e. 2nd lock-down, civil unrest, election, war, etc.) and absent of that, the market will continue to all time highs. After that, I believe then we will retest March lows.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
7
A good one is commingAlright guys, as you can see btc forming a bearish flag after that fall, we are at the end of triangle and we have to wait and watch it for a break out, usually triangles needs 15 candle for confirmation to fall or rejection, but this one is a little different to me ... As you can see we rsi and macd are trying to show us an uptrend ! But ma's showing us a downtrend ! We have a big divergence between indicators and patterns here. We have dynamic support of ma 120 and ma 200, but ma 50 is acting like dynamic resistance for now. Btc formed a rectangle channel from yesterday and it likes to play there for now, I can say that we are safe for a few hours to do our TA ! If you see 4h chart you can see some candle stick patterns which shows uptrend. In this case, Im prefer to wait for a confirmation above or below the rectangle by low time frames. But if you ask me about high ones, I will tell you that a down trend is really possible to 8k area ... We had up trend for almost 2 month ... 3k to 10k Ta said that after a big trend we need a correction for 70% of it ... so I can see 8k and 6k of it ... I recommend to spot trades ... do not long for now ... it will go down for a big correction... My targets will be Above 9700 => 9950 Below 9400 => 9k If you liked it, please hit the like button, share and write your comments, thanks for reading. Take care, trade safe
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by AminHa4
gold dxy5.12.20 This video is the sequel to the previous video. In addition, I showed two ways to frame range boxes on the gold contract. I decided to give a closer look at the bear trap on the DXY and as I did this, I realized I had to look at a couple of time frames in order to add clarity. This was a bear trap on smaller time frame, but it is a retest of a breakout higher. It is what it is on different time frames, but it has value to do this in my opinion. As I was listening to the video before uploading, I took note of how bullish the whole pattern looks on the DXY on the daily chart... to the point that it looks likely that the price will move higher to an ABCD pattern... even though I am not a breakout buyer, and the market is still in arrange box which is the dominant behavior. If you don't understand this, I will come back and review it once we get a chance to see how the dollar plays out. The reason I bring this up is because of my conviction that higher time frames result in much more accurate assessment of the bullish or bearish nature of price action.
TVC:DXYEducation
by ScottBogatin