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Trapped-traders

True story. My Single put option "2 contract" both down/SPX downWhen i did my idea about the completion of an Elliott wave structure with 5th wave 1.61 Fibs of wave one i decided that i would buy small 2 SPY single Put contracts just satisfy my "bias" and my "emotion" toward my Elliott wave count as a worthy trading strategy. So i bought April 16 2021 + March 31 2021 just before the last price action we got in the past 5 days or so . A prefect timing to say the least to test the market and a perfect timing to buy single Put to say the least. Even though i new stimulus is coming soon and this could be another buy the dip pullback but i did it any way regardless of the huge risk if i actually have invested allot of money or bought allot of contracts. Therefore, when we got the recent pullback i opened my account and guess what i saw. Both of my "Single Put contracts" are down 41 % % 49 % and that's was at the bottom around 3800. Just imagine the situation the market is in ,SPX is down around 3 % and you hold single puts you bought just at the top, and at the very bottom your down more than 40%. Well the only thing i concluded from this "test the market" kind of style trading is at 3800sh i came to the conclusion way before the move of spx higher that this is "Buy the dip" pullback, because there is no way that we are correcting and my puts will go down in value instead going up in value and big investors regardless of their different kinds did not buy insurance what so ever for any possible correction. The only thing i should've down is to buy single Calls to see if they have increased in value or no, i guess the should've increased in value if this was buy the dip pullback because the new where the market is going. I have never tested this strategy before, but from my understanding that some big investors use it with single stocks not with SPY like me or ETFs for that matter before they decide to hold big chunk of it. I hope you can take a way something beneficial to you trading strategies or you have learned little something from my live example of a true story of mine. Wish you all the best.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
4
Trade Set up See here I have made major support and resistance lines in a 1 hr Chart for Nifty. As you can see 14347 to 14443 (86 Points ) zone is a painful one. Markets can be very volatile in this range hence for this zone best will be to use an option hedging strategy, do not take a directional view in this range. Also, keep an eye on the support trendlines near closing i.e 14371. Closing below support Trendline line (Retest may occur or not I can't predict if it does and again red candle forms then markets will definitely touch 14222 and then to next support ) will cause some selling. Use these support and resistance and trendline to enter trades. In terms of going long look for trendline breakout in 30 or 15 min candle. Remember as markets fell heavily on Friday therefore general trend in the retail trader is to short the market. You shouldn't be impulsive in shorting, always wait for confirmation don't get trapped on any side, try to read the psychology of 90% of traders, and smartly make your move. See those who missed the rally will always come to buy at major support levels, hence you can use these to do scalp trade on the buy-side too to earn quick money till budget during intraday.
NSE:NIFTY
by vivekz_142
2
GBPUSD (W) is approaching some very potent bearish orderblocksGBPUSD is nearing some very potent bearish order blocks on the weekly chart, which can cause price to bounce back (at least temporarily). Also, the price delivery while going up is very clean and has no apparent open bullish order block. So if it falls, there's nothing to support it. Also, DXY and EURUSD are at their support & resistance (respectively). So this all seems in sync. Please keep in mind, these are weekly zones - not to be used directly for trading. Instead, use them to keep a watch on price on your smaller timeframes. Expected direction : Up (till it reaches bearish order blocks) and then Down
by makuchaku
DXY (Dollar Index) Long term movement prediction for 2021DXY / DX1! / FX:USDOLLAR / Dollar Index is searching for liquidity, bouncing up and down in the process. This is my long term prediction on how it could move - given no major economic shifts. Option 1 DXY breaks below the Q1 2018 lows, collects liquidity It then runs up to fill in the fair value gap from Q3 2020 It then falls down and get rejected from Q3 2014 lows as those trapped shorts exit - creating a rally It then falls down again below Q3 2014 lows to collect liquidity Heads back up again in search of liquidity Option 2 DXY creates a short term low just before Q1 2018 liquidity run, so that it can trap even more traders It then runs up to fill in the fair value gap from Q3 2020 It then falls down, collects the liquidity below Q1 2018 lows Get rejected from Q3 2014 lows as those trapped shorts exit - creating a rally It then falls down again below Q3 2014 lows to collect liquidity Heads back up again in search of liquidity
ICEUS:DX1!
by makuchaku
My trading strategies : Trade against the trapped trader!STRAT 11 : Basic premise As price continues in a trend, more and more traders keep piling into the same direction, hoping that the trend will continue and they will make money. However, at some point, the trend sharply reverses, breaking the market structure in opposite direction and trapping a whole bunch of retail traders in the direction of trend which just got reversed. We create a zone which identifies these trapped traders and then patiently wait for them to exit, and trade with limit orders in the direction of their exit. You can add additional confirmation signals from DXY's directions for the instruments which are highly correlated to DXY (EURUSD, USDCHF, etc)
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by makuchaku
3