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Traps

Everything I've Learnt Are...Bs lol. We live in information age where we can get any information from internet for free of cost. So why are we buying courses and learning from different sources of training materials when everything are based on same framework with differnet title name? I can see on this chart that there are many Traps with M & W formations only occurs before breakouts which is where 90% of retails traders gets trapped before seeing a big moves up or downwards which only 10% of people that actually caught that big moves. Why? Interesting, charts tell alot of story.. Just have to look hard enough for a tell tale signs...
FX:US30
by UnknownUnicorn4090857
Gold: Break of Rising Structure, AgainThe gold has consolidated for more than a week since it broke new high at the beginning of last week. The price has made another attempt to break new high as it broke the top of the consolidation but came down quickly as it lost its buying strength at the previous high of 1555. There's a repeating pattern which shown the price fell as much as 300 pips once it broke below the rising structure (break of a rising trendline/bottom of a rising channel etc). Also, the gold price was already seen resisted at the to of a 3-month rising channel since it reached the highest price of 1555. The recent fakeout is very likely to cause a big amount of buy orders to be trapped and that's an indication that the price may continue to fall further. Traders may look to look for short-tern/intraday sell at the moment, stop loss set about 30-50 pips just above 1543 would be sufficient and targetting the demand zone around 1530.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by AlgoVenture
1
SELLERS TRAP, A BIG MOVE IS COMINGGood day risk takers, As we can see from the left of the daily chart for GOLD the yellow metal moves in a somewhat predictable fashion in that every time before a big move happens like anything beyond 200 pips there is that one candle stick at the beginning of that big move. I made boxes to show how this happens, the characteristics of the candle are that their wick/shadow hit a new low or high for bullish and bearish moves respectively. This is more of a sellers or buyers trap to capture those who got excited about the market continuing. Today (04 April 2019) we saw XAUUSD reach a new low of 1280, a 4 week low and very important psychological level for a reversal. A long trade with entry at current market price with stop loss at about 1275 and first take profit at 1314 and possibly up to 1330 target in an ultra swing trade. As always practice safe risk management have a pipful second quarter
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ZAYN1001
BTC Trap AnalysisHere's a scenario I can see unfolding in the next couple of weeks/months on BTC. Basically ranging but clear bull bias to the upside. With a liquidity play on LONG bias traders in the 2 red boxes. Ultimately I think from the lower level it will recover quickly but is the last shake retail weak traders out who went long in those red box ranges. If this unfolds I'll be buying on the way down as usual. And if you are in my group you know I already have positions at this bottom. I won't be exiting those at normal take profit levels. Looking for 8-10K by the end of year possibly. Of course should go without saying this could be completely wrong and I will change my outlook as the market slaps me in the face.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by RexDogActual
D1 bias, H1 setup, short term executionI'll post my Ninjatrader charts for trade entries. This is the kind of setup I want to wait for vs fighting the grind on NQ today. I'm a momentum trader, and momentum comes from traps and/or tipping points. I don't want price to ever come back to my entry and I don't believe in wide stops. Before taking entries, ask yourself about the market state. Is it grinding? If so, you're going to get killed with constant retests of your entries, general noise etc. What's the point getting into a position you think is going to be retested (I'm speaking as a daytrader, not a swing trader...). If you're getting stuck overtrading, ask yourself this: Do I really expect this trade to move to my target? If there's a preceding trap AND contraction AND empty space ahead of you...that's where the money's made.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by structuredtrader
Chop is bad? Daytrading the swings (Concept Of Pain)"A choppy market is bad, can't make money in this erratic sideways movements..." I often read these statements, but is it true? Not if you can trade a 800 point range in Bitcoin and make money from the swings intraday. The key to trading with price action in a range is to buy low and sell high. Of course that sounds trivial, but it is not, because the market tries to trap people into thinking that the range is over and done. So a lot of traders start thinking " new strong trend" and buy high or sell low, expecting the trend to go on. These breakout points often look very bullish/bearish and it may feel "easy" to go long/short at these points, but they are the worst places to enter long/short. So always ask yourself "what can the market at this point do to inflict pain, to cause damage?"... The concept of pain in intraday trading is extremely important, because what do you think drives prices intraday when there are no news? It is just a game of fooling other traders and to trap them in the wrong direction. When people can't stand the pain any more and close their position because all hope is lost, then the markets turns and goes straight to the point where they may have thought it would go. So try to think tactical all the time: Where are breakeven stops or stop loss levels of "easy" entries? Prices tend to go there! Sorry for that philosophical rant, but it is the weekend and I felt like sharing my philosophy :) Now we get down to business and look at some price action entries (numbered arrows): Trade 1: After I wrote in my last posting (see link below), that I expect a sideways movement and a target of 9600, there was a short entry at the top of the range. At this point some people might have thought we have a double bottom at 9750 and a new uptrend, but I there is often a third test or a new low (9600). Notice how bearish it looked at 9600, a lot of longs might have been closing their position at this point. Next thing you know prices rise to 10.000 again...the concept of pain, remember? Trade 2 + 3: Prices now are moving in the range again. The breakeven stops from the early longs at 9700 have been taken out, the second leg up can start. That would take prices near the top of the range again (10.100). Trade 2 is more aggressive than Nr.3, because there is only a small double bottom and a bullish candle. Trade 3 is a failed second entry short in a steeper short term uptrend. Trade 4: This short illustrates the concept of pain again. We now have seen a break of the steeper uptrend from trades 2+3, then two legs up to a new high: This is where you expect a move down. Prices also climbed right to the top of a possible broader uptrend channel (acting like a range). As a skilled price action trader you look for an aggressive short entry at this point, while others are crying "moon" because of the uptrend and the breakout above 10.250. Trade 5 + 6: Now a all the "easy" long entries (above Trade 3) have seen their breakeven stops hit, the concept of pain again! The market has moved down in two legs to the lower side of the upwards tilted channel at 9.900, it sure looks bearish again, right? Meanwhile a lot of people are short again and may already look for a retest of the low at 9.600. But that would be too easy, so the concept of pain strikes again! Prices rocket up in a steep trend making a new high (10.500). The powerful trend is now fueled by all the stops from shorts who need to exit. Again trade 5 is more agressive than trade 6, both can be seen as failed second entry shorts, but at trade 6 there is already the steep uptrend in play. Trade 7: Up there people think long, we have a strong uptrend and a new high and higher lows, right? The same price action pattern as always: After the break of an uptrend and two legs to a new high you should be careful about that long position ;) The space for text here is limited, continues in update...
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by FBlocktrader
2
Reversal over? The long road to 9000...When BTC broke free above 8000 again a few days ago and continued to storm up, a lot of people might have looked to 9000 and thought it would reach that level in a matter of hours. But not so fast...the market had some tricks up its sleeve to scare you out of your long position or to make you believe we are going back to 6000 again. How to avoid getting tricked and profit from all this? So after the first leg up and the break of the uptrend, price action rules did give a target of 9000 (second leg). We eventually did get to that level, but not without a lot of seemingly erratic up and down, trapping traders to the wrong side. One of the keys to trading is to determine if we are in a trend or in a range! When the second leg did not reach its target and prices went below the EMA it is time to think about a possible range. This range, which was established at the Entry 1 (blue arrow), is pointing upwards, so we have a large trend channel. Always try to find these slightly tilted channels, do not look only for horizontal ranges between support and resistance! You can see prices moved exactly in this channel for several days. Nice short and long entries could be found at the upper and lower side of this channel: 1. Long: - second entry long from the low at 7550 - Range expected - for more details see my posting "No free lunch!" in the related ideas 2. Short: - now this looks like a perfect bulltrap at the top of the channel - failed breakout above 8500 resistance - we did see two equal length legs up inside the channel reaching the upper side 3. Short: - expect a second leg down to the lower channel line - second entry short after it turned down at resistance - breakeven stops of traders who got short at entry 2 were taken out 4. Long: - little bear trap at the lower side of the channel - second try to go higher around 7800 (second entry long) - two legs down completed 5. Long: - another try to move up counted from the low at entry 4 (second entry long) - channel was confirmed again - expect to go to the upper side of the channel, making an new high 6.Short: - we had a strong short term trend up, the break and several legs up - bull trap at the top of the channel (breakout above 9000) - now the second big leg to 9000 is completed, i talked about in the beginning! 7. Short: - perfect second entry short after the break of the steep downmove - two small legs back to the EMA (two pushes up) - breakeven stops from shorts below 7850 taken out - another red leg down expected to the lower side of the channel The end of the big reversal in Bitcoin? No, we are still moving inside the channel. But right now a lot of people might see this channel...and when everybody does expect something to hold often the channel is broken. So pay attention to the short-term downtrend channel which is still in play. I would not be surprised if we see 8200- 7900 again. Why? There might be still some breakeven stops from the longs at entries 4 +5 ;)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by FBlocktrader
2
No free lunch! How BTC pushes traders out..Do you sometimes get pushed out of a profitable position? Do you see the market coming back to your breakeven stop, only to then continue going in "your" direction? The market is doing this constantly, so be aware of this. I will show you two areas where this has happened yesterday. Traders often do get no "free lunch", which means a riskless profit. After the trade entry, you may have a nice profit but then see prices turn against your position. Of course you do not want a profitable position to end up in a loss, so you move your stop to breakeven at some point. Is there a solution to this dilemma? Yes, you can exit a good position at a reasonable target, giving up more profit potential. Or you can leave your stop in its original place and risk taking a (small) loss, but stay in your position which can still become very profitable (again). Yesterday there where two examples of this "breakeven stop hunting": 1. The "breakout" longs In the chart I marked the breakout area (red box), where traders entered long, after prices went above resistance levels at 7550 to 7930. Not a bad decision, prices went up to hit the resistance at 8400, nice profit. Traders who hoped it would go higher still, like 9000, of course stayed in position and may have moved their stops to breakeven. But now BTC turned down and made several legs back to 7550. So now the bulls all have seen their stop hit, and what happens? Right, it goes up 1000 points! 2. The "early" shorts Aggressive short traders may have entered below the resistance at 8400 when they saw the market showing weakness there. In the blue box you can see the short entry levels between 8400 and 8100. After seeing a little profit the market then goes up again to 8400, hitting stop loss or breakeven stops of these shorts. Now of course it goes nearly straight down where everybody thought it was going (7800-7600). After all this there was a nice long entry: The long entry (blue circle) also was created by a short trap below 7800, which looked like this: People saw the short term downtrend and break below support at 7800 (former resist). Then a pullback from 7550 to 7800. When prices turned down below 7700 again, some traders would think bearish and short ("Hey, double top and strong downmove, we are going to 6200 again.") Now the bear trap strikes, presenting a long entry: The market makes a second entry long (second push up from 7600). Stops of shorts are being hit and drive prices up, not looking back to this level (7800)! Now how could you have anticipated something like that? Think about a possible range, because prices are moving above and the below the EMA. Think about the breakeven stops of the longs (see above my point 1). Longs are out and so the market is "free" to go up again. Longs might have to buy in again. Think about another leg up (second big leg) and a new high. As you can see, Bitcoin moved up to the upper side of the range in two equal legs and also made a new high! Feel free to post questions or PM me! Or just follow me ;)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by FBlocktrader
5