American Airlines | AAL | Long at $14.00Similar to my cruise line picks, I anticipate airlines to quite literally "take off" in the coming years as interest rates are lowered and people travel more. These two industries never quite recovered from the pandemic, but their time to do so is "likely" fast approaching.
American Airlines NASDAQ:AAL has been consolidating near my selected long-term simple moving average (SMA) for several years. Many retail investors have been beaten up by the sudden up and (especially) down price movements, but this is where larger investors gather their shares. The fact NASDAQ:AAL did not make a new low in August 2024 is a hopeful sign from a technical analysis perspective. While the price may dip to close out the new lower price gaps, I think we are nearing the "take off" zone which will be a massive break through the long-term SMA. A confirmation that something bigger is brewing would be a price move into the $15s, dip down to the $12s, and the larger move up. Regardless of trying to predict bottoms, NASDAQ:AAL is in a personal buy zone at $14.00.
Target #1 = $15.25
Target #2 = $16.55
Target #3 = $18.40
Target #4 = $27.00 (very long-term outlook...)
Travel
Who is buying this? I do not trade stocks because they do not live in the real world. They live in lala land where PE no longer matters. Reality has taken a back seat to FED jawboning and flagrantly cooked up jobs numbers. That being said, there are some opportunities that are too tempting to pass up!
I do not even know where to start...
This one really smells... from insiders dumping to the basic fundamentals around Airbnb. Airbnb has no moat! Assigning the majority of the vacation rental market to its market cap is lunacy. Competitors have already begun to take back market share offering the same exact listings with more competitive fee structures.
Personally as a former Super host and and avid traveller I can state first hand that my experiences with Airbnb have gone from bad to worse. The percentage fees they charge both the host and the guest are outrageous when you consider what you actually receive from the platform... Nothing!
In addition to user experience, the general view on STRs has shifted. This has created a difficult landscape for hosts and the platform as governments have regulated and outright banned the platform.
Fundamentals of the business aside, the macro back drop for travel are bleak. The S&P is at all time highs but if you pop the hood the reality of the real economy is bleak. Savings are almost at record lows while credit card debt is at record highs. I can go on....
Personally, I am salivating at the prospect that some poor soul will continue to buy Airbnb and let me borrow their shares at the 140 level.
If you are a believer in a "soft landing " I would approach this as a pair trade
Historically 50 basis point cuts are BEARISH. They are a sign of panic by the fed. If the US does enter a recession travel will be one of the hardest hit sectors.
$140-$155 is the zone in which I will build my short position.
Spirit Airlines | SAVE | Long at $2.80I'll be the contrarian. Spirit Airlines NYSE:SAVE has been beat to a pulp, but the company is still actively flying the high skies. While low-budget airlines have hit a rough patch as low-income consumers tighten their spending, the CFO recently was awarded almost $250k in options (a bullish sign). Plus, the next few years could be great for airlines as interest rates are lowered and travel increases as AI takes our jobs - what else is there to do with people's time and money?!
So, while a "risky play", it is resting along my lowest selected simple moving average which (usually) spirs a rally. This may not come until the interest rate lowering anouncement (short interest is high with this one), but the price at $2.80 is currently in my personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $4.00
Target #2 = $6.26
Airbnb (ABNB): Holding the line, but for how long?!After charting Airbnb one month ago, we’ve seen another slight dip, and one of our members rightly pointed out that Airbnb has reacted well to the $113.60 price level. This level has acted as support for the fourth time now, and it seems like it could hold. However, t here’s a big BUT —we’re not placing an entry just yet. Trying to catch the exact bottom of Wave 1 can be risky and extremely difficult. Instead, we are more focused on waiting for a possible short opportunity if Airbnb rises again.
Airbnb continues to struggle, and we don't want to catch this falling knife too early, risking unnecessary losses. We’ll keep monitoring the situation closely, and if we gain more confidence that this is indeed the end of Wave 1, we’ll let you know. 🫡
GBPTRY - Great Holiday Time :)Starting September 2nd I'll be on holiday in Turkey for 2 weeks.
I've managed to time this holiday pretty perfect, looking at the charts we can see it's been in a steep UP TREND since 2nd of July, although it could be argued it happened after the RANGE BREAKOUT in May.
GBP is now extremely strong to TRY, meaning we get more TURKISH LIRA for our GREAT BRITISH POUND.
If your planning a holiday any time soon, this is the time to exchange your currency.
I will be watching in the coming weeks to see what happens, hopefully we can keep this steep uptrend for several weeks, either way i'm happy to be exchanging my GBP to TRY within 2 weeks.
It's highly probable this up trend will not last, so make the most of it while you can, i'm confident that by the time i'm home the situation will have changed. To me, it looks like we may be about to enter into a range in the coming days.
I'm watching and waiting for either a pullback or a range breakout for entry/exchange, it's NOT a good idea to enter near the top.
Either way, from a travel view point rather than a trader, it's a great time to holiday to TURKEY!
Airbnb beats analysts' estimatesAirbnb delivered its quarterly results for the first quarter of 2024, surpassing analysts' estimates on the top and bottom lines. The company reported revenue growth of 18% YoY, bringing the figure to $2.1 billion. The net income was $264 million, up 126% YoY, and operating income amounted to $1.9 billion, recording an increase of 18% YoY. Per the investor letter, the company conducted share buybacks worth $750 million in the first quarter of the current year and registered 132.6 million bookings, marking an increase of 9.5% YoY.
Net revenue = $2.1 billion (18% YoY) vs. $1.8 billion in 1Q23
Net income = $264 million (126% YoY) vs. $117 million in 1Q23
Operating income = $1.9 billion (18% YoY) vs. $1.6 billion in 1Q23
Earnings per share = $0.41 (127% YoY) vs. $0.18 in 1Q23
Additional information
Active listings rose by 15% in the first quarter of 2024.
Long-term stays of 28 days or more accounted for 17% of gross nights booked, down about 1% compared to the first quarter of 2023.
Gross nights booked in non-urban areas grew by 10% YoY.
Forward guidance
Airbnb expects its revenue to increase by approximately 10% in the second quarter of 2024, bringing it to $2.68 billion. Further, the company anticipates stable growth in bookings and adjusted EBITDA to be flat to up on a nominal basis but down on an adjusted EBITDA margin basis when compared to the second quarter of 2023. In addition to that, Airbnb expects its full-year 2024 stock-based compensation expense to be approximately 20% higher than in the full year 2023.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Booking (BKNG) -> Pay Very Close AttentionMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Booking Holdings.
Almost 10 years ago Booking Holdings stock entered a quite decent rising channel and is currently retesting the upper resistance from which I do expect a minor bearish rejection.
I would then look for longs at the $2400 structure zone or the $1900 rising channel support since the overall trend is still quite bullish and I do expect a bullish reversal there.
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I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
ABNB - Setting up for a big run
Trading above 600 DMA ++
Golden cross pending. Price move to 160 in next few weeks, would make that happen.
Inverse H&S pattern with the critical pivot line at 130.
It will continue to ramp to 160. Quite a bit of selling to be absorbed until then. Next earnings are likely to start a fire to send this to 200.
Bear case : Keeps selling below and breaches 115. Most likely will test ATL.
No position yet, but I will go long next week once it backtests 130.
The good the bad the Ugly....Trades for 6.23.23Maybe I am in patient, and even though this looks ugly I am going to post this.... I will post the individual charts for each stock. At the time I added the new stocks to this. EBAY was still being a turd and Bili was scared of its shadow. So if you take those out then we have TCOM and Love not done coming down when I got in....so Maybe give it till 11:30-12:30 EST on 6.23 for some of these. WM being a beast still from my previous trade. AWK started out semi strong then got weak as I was writing this.
Now on to what I do see....*sigh* In the market all travel has been setting up behind Airlines to pop the ribbon. The Ribbon is the ESVO, which is basically the physical representation of the river used for supply and demand. Not only travel, but Natural Disaster stocks are priming. If you have been following my trades. GNRC, AIG, WM, AWK these are all natural disaster stocks. Look at URI also a good one, HD also a beast, LOW.....duh. all popping the ribbon and finding support. Some of these on lower time frames are not there yet. But I like torturing myself.
Note to Bili and EBay I will cut you, like a Latin Kings Girlfriend in a club because you stepped on my shoes while I was waiting by the bar...... Just saying.
I will give these too monday if they arent acting right drop em.
iCantw84it
6.23.23
Corporate governance reforms are working for JapanJapan1 is trading at a 33-year high, despite a challenging global macro backdrop. At 15x forward Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio, Japan has been trading at a valuation discount versus global peers, for a considerable period of time. We are finally starting to see a number of catalysts help narrow the wide valuation gap versus global peers – an improvement in corporate governance, rebound in domestic consumption post the pandemic, strong earnings results in FY3/23 and a weaker yen. This has led to a notable influx of overseas investor capital into Japanese stocks for 8 weeks in a row.
This rally was initially stoked by Warren Buffet publicly investing in Japan’s five leading trading companies. Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffets industrial and insurance conglomerate also said it intended to hold onto the investments for the long haul and could increase the size of its holdings to as much as 9.9%.
The Japanese equity rally has also been fuelled further by a combination of strong macro-economic data and solid earnings results which saw ¥5Trn in buyback announcements. On the macro front, the re-opening driven rebound in domestic demand is supporting the economy.
Recovery in Travel demand boosts business confidence
According to data on travel and tourism from the Japan Tourism Agency (JTA), spending on domestic travel reached ¥4.2Trn in Jan- March 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels slightly. The rapid recovery in inbound consumption is also a tailwind with the number of visitors to Japan in April back up to 73% of the 2019 average. Strong travel demand is supportive for business confidence. In tandem, the May services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reached its highest level since the survey began in 2007. This is consistent with trends in consumer sentiment evident from the May consumer confidence survey which showed an improvement in the consumer confidence index for the third month in a row2.
Rebound in domestic demand aids growth
According to preliminary estimates, GDP in Jan-Mar Calendar Year (CY)23 grew by 0.4% following two quarters of negative growth3. The main driver was private second demand, with consumption rising 0.6% and capex up 0.9% quarter on quarter (QoQ)3. Even public investment, which has been weak for a while, rose 2.4% QoQ contributing 0.1% to GDP growth. On the flipside external demand, highlighted in the export trade data, contracted 4.2%, dragging down headline GDP growth by 0.9%. While inbound spending, classified as services exports in the GDP statistics, increased 5.6% QoQ, goods exports contracted 6.5%3.
Fast forward through years of deflation, inflation is beginning to trend higher. Inflation triggered by structural labour shortages is forcing companies to raise wages meaningfully and re-think their pricing strategy. So, while the rest of the world is battling inflation fires, Japan is trying to ignite one. However, the most recent inflation print in May showed a surprising slowdown in Tokyo core price gains. Slower inflation is good news for households, which are spending more as the economy re-opens. It also gives further ammunition for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to maintain its stance on ultra loose monetary policy.
BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledges that Japan’s economy continues to require significant stimulus to maintain a goal of stable demand-driven 2% inflation. Owing to which, we have seen the Japanese Yen decline 5.51%4 versus the US dollar. This in turn has made Japanese exports cheaper aiding Japanese export companies.
The myth that Japanese companies do not reward shareholders has been dispelled now
Japan’s Fiscal Year 31 March 2023 earnings season witnessed results that were resilient overall. What stood out was the large increase in the number of share buyback announcements ¥5Trn. This was not a consequence of profit growth alone but more likely a result of the changes of the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s (TSE) Price/Book (P/B) criteria as discussed here. Share buybacks have attracted foreign investors and is providing an important tailwind for Japanese equities.
Corporate governance reform has been a thematic in Japan for seven years. However, this time we are seeing reform make breakthroughs. We got early indications from the mini-March annual shareholder meeting that showed Japanese investors voting more actively at AGMs. The next major catalyst will be the June AGM season. In regard to the potential impact to the new TSE guidelines on Japanese companies, feedback initially was mixed. However, we have seen 15%+ moves on the day of reform announcements by Japanese companies which confirms the market is clearly rewarding companies that are being proactive.
Solid earnings results provide a tailwind for Japanese equities
Japan’s Fiscal Year 31 March 2023 earnings results were resilient highlighting sales growth 16.4% YoY and 2% in net profits YoY5. The sectors that guided for the highest earnings growth in Fiscal Year 31 March 2024 are the ones that benefit from lower materials prices, namely electric power & gas, pulp & paper, and glass & ceramics. The domestic demand-led sectors are posed to benefit from reopening and inbound tourism, including land transportation, retail, and financial. They also issued the next strongest earnings guidance.
Unchanged YearThe month of May was brutal for EXPE with the stock loosing over $100 worth of price value going from $200 down to around $90 a share. Since July of 2022 we have seen some slight range bound movement with price making its way right back to around the $92 price point as of today. With earnings coming out negatively for the last the quarters, revenues continue to roll in. I'd be curious to see how EXPE performs in the coming years as AI begins to play a larger part in the way that people travel.
Rebounding Air Travel & Rising China to Fire Up WTI CrudeBack in the 70s, oil prices spiked shockingly from $2.90 to $11.65 a barrel; gasoline soared 6-times from 20 cents to 120 cents a gallon in a matter of days. Fuel shortages forced factories to shut, airlines to cancel flights and stations crying "Sorry, No Gas Today". Fistfights ensued, including occasional gunfire. President Nixon called for America to end its dependence on foreign oil.
In those five lines of history lies the genesis of both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil and WTI Crude Oil derivatives.
This paper is set in two parts. Part 1 looks back at the remarkable 40-year history of CME Group’s WTI Crude Oil Derivative. Part 2 of the paper analyses the fundamental drivers fuelling WTI crude oil prices higher and an accompanying case study delivering 1.75x reward to risk.
PART 1: ENABLING RISK MANAGEMENT IN ENERGY PRICES FOR FORTY YEARS
Energy markets form the backbone of the global economy. Its prices can make or break nations. Unchecked volatility in energy prices can adversely impact every aspect of daily lives from food to work to shelter to travel.
WTI is high-quality crude oil extracted from the Texas Permian Basin. Crude oil is then refined into gasoline, distillate, and kerosene. WTI is known as light sweet crude oil. It is considered "sweet" as it contains low levels of sulphur. Given the low density, it makes WTI "light".
WTI Crude is a widely used global benchmark for oil prices. It is the underlying commodity for one of the most liquid futures contracts in the world – the CME Crude Oil Futures ("CL Futures"). CL Futures is a physically delivered contract with tight correlation to the physical oil market.
Over one million contracts of CL Futures change hands daily on NYMEX, representing $7+ billion in notional values. Each lot of the CL Futures contract represents one thousand barrels of oil. CL Futures provide deep liquidity and high-quality market structure for hedgers and investors to participate in and protect against oil price action.
NYMEX began trading CL Futures on March 30th, 1983. Among the pioneer commodities to list and trade on NYMEX was the WTI Crude.
In November 1986, NYMEX launched American options (LO) on CL Futures allowing participants greater sophistication and flexibility in hedging against oil price volatility.
In March 2008, the CME Group acquired NYMEX for $9.4 billion.
In April 2014, CME introduced weekly options on CL Futures (LO1-LO5) with more granular strike prices. In December 2021 CME launched Micro WTI Futures, which further enable affordable access to the oil market.
The CME also offers options on calendar spreads which are useful as tactical trading and hedging tools given the cyclicality in the oil market.
PART 2: TURNING UP THE HEAT ON WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES
Travel Rebound & China Re-opening.
Air travel is rebounding. Global air traffic was at 75% of its pre-pandemic levels in November 2022 as per IATA.
Pandemic restrictions in China held it back. With China having re-opened its borders, air traffic growth has taken off. The International Energy Administration (IEA) mentioned in its latest report that Chinese domestic air traffic had rebounded sharply in January and was well above pre-pandemic levels by February.
The IEA predicts that overall global oil demand growth will increase by two million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023. It is slower than the growth of 2.6 million bpd in 2022 but nevertheless taking demand to its highest level of 102 million bpd. The OPEC expects crude oil demand to increase by 2.3 million bpd in 2023, with Chinese demand growing by 710,000 bpd.
Both OPEC and IEA have lifted their forecasts for demand from China given the surprising reopening pace. Nevertheless, banking crisis, recession risk, and economic uncertainty continues to weigh in and might dampen demand.
US Strategic Reserves Running at 40 Year Lows
The US Department of Energy’s (DoE) Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is a reserve set up in 1975 following the oil embargo of the 1970s. These reserves are used to tackle tail events causing significant disruption to global oil supply.
Last few years, there have been one too many tail events leading to the depletion of SPR. The DoE released a record 266 million barrels of crude from SPR to contain scorching inflation unseen in 40+ years.
The US has signalled that it may take several years to refill the SPR and that it may never reach previous baseline of 600 million barrels given high prices.
Refilling the reserves can take a long time. In the 80s, it took DoE 15 months to fill 100 million barrels. In the 2000s it took even longer – almost 2.5 years – to fill 100 million barrels.
Regardless of time taken, the need to replenish is certain. The DoE has signalled that it will refill when prices trade between $67-$72 a barrel. Hence, this price range serves as a strong support and floor for WTI prices.
Rotation out of Risk Off Assets.
Collapse of SVB and Credit Suisse has lit up forgotten fears. Financial markets suffered a massive tailspin. Liquidity easing measures by central banks have helped assuage worries but contagion concerns remain. Heightened economic uncertainty and recessionary fears plunged crude prices to their lowest levels in more than a year, even below the SPR replenishment price range.
Risk sirens are blowing loud. Unsurprisingly, investors have sought shelter in haven assets such as gold and treasuries. If measures to contain the crisis proves adequate, investors will rotate back fuelling a breezy recovery in energy prices.
Supply disruptions serves as a solid tailwind.
Oil demand is critical, so is supply.
Last December, OPEC+ conveyed its intent to cut output by 2 million bpd in 2023. Although pre-existing production shortfalls have kept OPEC+ output below their targets, these cuts are expected to translate to 1 million bpd of real supply shortfall.
Adding fuel to fire, last week a legal dispute in the middle east has led to Iraqi oil exports via Turkey to be entirely halted, disrupting 400k bpd of supply.
Oil prices are sensitive to supply disruptions. Persistent disruptions will drive prices high.
MARKET PARTICIPANTS ARE STILL NET LONG AND BULLISH CRUDE OIL
The CFTC COT report dated March 21 indicates that investors in the Other Reportable category nearly doubled their net long position on CL Futures from before the start of the banking crisis.
However, the Managed Money category showed that these investors reduced net long positions by 65%. These investors have rotated into safe havens such as precious metals. Despite the reduction, these investors still remain net long on CL Futures. A shift in market sentiment could quickly have these investors piling into CL Futures.
The put/call ratio on CL options is 0.56. For every oil bear, there are about two oil bulls. In fact, this ratio has actually fallen since the banking crisis began suggesting that investors are even more bullish on oil.
TRADE SET UP
This case study argues that a long position in WTI Crude Oil Futures expiring in September 2023 will deliver a 2.1x reward to risk ratio given the positive price drivers. CLU2023 offers exposure to 1,000 barrels of WTI crude and has a maintenance margin of $5,000 per lot.
● Entry: 72.78
● Target: 79.53
● Stop: 68.92
● Profit at Target: $6,750
● Loss at Stop: $3,860
● Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.75x
To hedge or trade with granular precision and for affordable access, investors could opt for CME’s Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures which offers exposure to one hundred barrels with a maintenance margin of $500 per lot.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
PK - travel and leisure bearishAgain the theme is less risk in current Macroeconomic environment. Travel numbers have been going down which doesn't bode well for travel and leisure. As always the ratio of our trades are paramont. This is a good spot to make some money on a trade that played out quite nicely in the past.
Buy signal on weekly chart for $MSGEMadison Square Gardens Entertainment has upcoming earnings on August 19th. With the data provided by AXP travel & entertainment spending are up as spending has shifted from goods to experiences, entertainment, and services. This is exemplified in what retailers are reporting. And I think this will be positive for MSGE.
Currently, the middle and upper classes are doing fairly well while the lower class is suffering from the regressive tax of inflation, which is unfortunate. Those with disposable income and better economic situations are more likely to be MSGE customers boding for a good quarter and less risk from demand destruction.
MSGE is trading above its 52-week lows at 0.5629 its book value, providing tremendous value and a good risk-reward ratio. Its EBITDA and EBIT have gone from negative previously to positive in the past two quarters. Gross profit has turned positive for the past 4 quarters and net income has been improving over the past 3 quarters.
Anytime the K% crosses the D% on the Stoch RSI around the level of 1.73, MSGE goes for a decent rally. If you average the two past rallies (MSGE has a short trading history) from the week the bullish Stoch RSI cross happened to a relative peak, it's a 59.47% move that could be implied over the next 6-12 months. It has significant resistance at the $68.06 level.
It recently broke out through a downtrend line that started in mid-April. It is still in a downtrend, but it seems the prudent thing to do would be to create 1/3 to 1/4 of a full position in the stock now and buy the next tranche upon a higher low or higher high. I have a price target of $81 on it by the end of the year. That's roughly 40% upside from here. The highest PT on the street for MSGE is $100, the lowest is $63, and the average is $82.83.
Jet Fuel Takes OffWhen will jet fuel stop making all time highs? I think this speaks volumes about the continued pace of inflation combined with a post-2020 "get me outta here and fly me somewhere" mentality, in addition to other factors. So now people want to fly after not flying for a few years. Why do we have to pay mafia level prices now? I guess now it's time for the propaganda machine to shift the narrative to blaming people for their sudden surge flying habits, which still considerably falls short of pre-2020 levels. Rather than looking at the true source of price inflation: Yes, I mean the mafia overlords themselves at the Federal Reserve, their higher order of archdemon overlords will shift blame to something else. If our eating habits were to become an increasing result of centralized policy, for example, we'd all be forced to eat hot dogs and drink orange juice right about now - the only items in the CPI where it seems inflation is somewhat accurately portrayed.
I can imagine the posters already:
PLEASE refrain from your disgusting urges of flying, LOYAL citizens!
Take this delicious and nutritious diet of HOT DOGS and ORANGE JUICE instead.
Do Uncle Sam PROUD, FIGHT inflation TODAY!
Do your part for OUR NATION!
Oh my...
Seriously though, you gotta give some respect to orange juice , SO FAR:
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets! ;)
Novaturas (NTU1L) | Breakout From The Chart Pattern.Hi,
Novaturas has made a breakout from the bullish chart pattern called Falling Wedge. Mid-term higher high will confirm it and currently the retest are taking place which is also supported with strong horizontal area.
Do your own research and if it's matching with my TA then you are ready to go!
Regards,
Vaido
RCL in a long term downward trendLooking at the past two years of charts for RCL (one of my favorite stocks, also a cruise line member, nice little perk if you own 100 shares on each trip).
So charting this out taking out the noise of March 2020 we are in a downward channel, but it is not a very steep downward channel which is comforting.
Looking for buying opportunities at the bottom of the channel and then waiting to see price action at the top of the channel. Very careful on the buys right now given the pressure on the entire market at the moment, and also the amount of debt that the leisure travel industry has on it at the moment.
Full Analysis (Price Action, ichimoku, & more!) on AC! BTFD!My friend is heavily invested in Air Canada and was looking for some potential break outs (or break downs!), so I ran through the whole analysis playbook of how I look at stocks.
In this video, I cover how to analyze price action, fibonacci, some pattern techniques, moving averages, and ichimoku.
Overall, I'm looking to buy the dips with optimal entry around $21.35. My stop would be around $19.11, with my first Price Target around $34, putting us at a R/R of 13/2.5 = 5:1! I'd be looking for a big move within 2 weeks (by April 25). I'd 100% play $26-27 July 2023 calls.
Good luck out there and let me know if you want me to take a look at any other tickers!
Cheers,
-TMoney
Long - Looks like a very strong upside candidate
1 Price above VWAP, 200D, 100D and 50D SMA: Yes
2 100D SMA > 200D SMA: Yes
3 50D SMA > 100D SMA: Yes
4 200 SMA trending up: Yes
5 100 SMA trending up: Yes
6 50 SMA trending up: Yes
7 RSI > 70: Yes
8 Clear past: no resistance Yes
9 Above 52WH: Yes
10 Recent high volumes: Yes
11 Increasing Revenue: Yes
12 Expanding Margins: Yes
13 Sector Outlook: Positive
14 Pattern: Huge cup and handle
15 Held well since beg. of Jan 2022: Yes
16 Market Position: Leader in inflight internet in NA
17 Entry Target: $16-$17
18 Stop Loss: $14