General Chart Work SessionI am recording these sessions to show the work I do on charts in general. I am gracious to my mentor @timwest for showing me this style of stock analysis! I am not perfect at it, but I review charts quite often to look at different potential developments and create/test ideas using this method. Of course, you will see other tools I enjoy using on my charts as well.
In this video I am reviewing the following: NYSE:HD , NASDAQ:PTON , NYSE:NCLH , and, briefly, $BBW. All of these I consider to be in general uptrends and personally have a bias to the long side. Of course, anything can happen in the markets, so only time will tell how these ideas continue to play out.
Hope you enjoy, and best of luck out there!
Travelandleisure
Who is buying this? I do not trade stocks because they do not live in the real world. They live in lala land where PE no longer matters. Reality has taken a back seat to FED jawboning and flagrantly cooked up jobs numbers. That being said, there are some opportunities that are too tempting to pass up!
I do not even know where to start...
This one really smells... from insiders dumping to the basic fundamentals around Airbnb. Airbnb has no moat! Assigning the majority of the vacation rental market to its market cap is lunacy. Competitors have already begun to take back market share offering the same exact listings with more competitive fee structures.
Personally as a former Super host and and avid traveller I can state first hand that my experiences with Airbnb have gone from bad to worse. The percentage fees they charge both the host and the guest are outrageous when you consider what you actually receive from the platform... Nothing!
In addition to user experience, the general view on STRs has shifted. This has created a difficult landscape for hosts and the platform as governments have regulated and outright banned the platform.
Fundamentals of the business aside, the macro back drop for travel are bleak. The S&P is at all time highs but if you pop the hood the reality of the real economy is bleak. Savings are almost at record lows while credit card debt is at record highs. I can go on....
Personally, I am salivating at the prospect that some poor soul will continue to buy Airbnb and let me borrow their shares at the 140 level.
If you are a believer in a "soft landing " I would approach this as a pair trade
Historically 50 basis point cuts are BEARISH. They are a sign of panic by the fed. If the US does enter a recession travel will be one of the hardest hit sectors.
$140-$155 is the zone in which I will build my short position.
BA $240 moving to in short term BA Current Price $221 Price Target $240
Option - $220c 9/10 ($568,1.7% till breakeven)
After reporting their first profitable quarter in 6 quarters I believe now is the time to add some BA to your portfolio. FDA approval for COVID vaccines coming in just last week shouldact as a tailwind for the travel sector and especially Boeing. In June, Boeing booked defense contracts valued at $1.1 billion. The contract flow was carried by orders for the CH-47 Chinook and the AH-64 Apache. Seemingly, July was even better in terms of contract value. There was a fear out there that BA may see a decline in defense spending due to changes in administrations as we went from the trump administration to the Biden Administration but that is simply not taking place, defense contracts have been very strong for the company. Looking at the chart I believe we will trade up to the top line of resistance around $240 over the coming weeks.
No PLYA'n Around After EarningsPLYA was a company we discussed late last year before it left penny stock range. Interesting company and idea as a Vice stock that could benefit from reopening:
"Rarely might you expect hotels to be on the list of vice stocks to watch. But think about it. What better way to enjoy a vice than at an all-inclusive resort? Playa Hotels & Resorts has a “sinful” side to it. The company’s adults-only brands like Hyatt Zilara, The Hilton Playa del Carmen, and Sanctuary offer a unique experience to their customers. From unlimited drinks to even offering a “Romance Concierge,” Playa could fit the mold for sin stocks to watch.
What To Watch With Playa
The company has been going through its own reopening following coronavirus restrictions. Earlier this month, the company reopened the Hilton La Romana all-inclusive adult and family resorts in the Dominican Republic. It also resumed normal operations at its Yucatán resorts..."
Quote Source & Read More: What Are The Best Penny Stocks To Watch Now? 4 Vice Stocks To Know
This week PLYA released Q2 results:
Three Months Ended June 30, 2021 Results
Net Loss was $7.8 million compared to a Net Loss of $87.5 million in 2020.
Adjusted Net Loss(1) was $9.6 million compared to an Adjusted Net Loss of $60.3 million in 2020.
Owned Resort EBITDA increased 234.9% versus 2020 to $32.1 million.
Adjusted EBITDA increased 172.9% versus 2020 to $22.9 million .
Six Months Ended June 30, 2021 Results
Net Loss was $77.5 million compared to a Net Loss of $110.0 million in 2020.
Adjusted Net Loss(1) was $60.5 million compared to an Adjusted Net Loss of $58.9 million in 2020.
Owned Resort EBITDA increased 4.8% versus 2020 to $38.6 million.
Adjusted EBITDA increased 7.9% versus 2020 to $20.4 million.
While the fib levels have shown different levels of support/resistance, the 200DMA is clearly a more important level. It was tested and thanks to a news catalyst, PLYA was able to bounce off and get back above the key Fib level (for now).
Gambling on WYNN?WYNN is now approaching a VERY important level right now at the 50 fib line. Using the pandemic low as the anchor and this year's high, some important levels have begun to reveal themselves. Right now the 50 fib sits right around $90 (about $1 off Wednesday's level). With new Delta data coming out, people seem a bit skittish about travel and leisure. So where to go from here? Upcoming earnings are near-term potential catalysts, meanwhile, it's still a bit up in the air which way the wind will blow when it comes to potential lockdowns/ restrictions, etc.
If you look at what the outlook seemed to be earlier in the year before the Delta data started flowing, optimism was apparent: Travel Pulse recently shared findings from a survey of more than 5,800 respondents. Here are some of the findings:
-61% feel hopeful about travel in 2021, of whom 83% will take two or more domestic trips, and 44% plan for two or more international getaways.
-Approximately 83 % of hopeful respondents plan to take at least two domestic trips, and about half as many (44%) are targeting two or more international getaways in 2021.
-More than one-third of respondents (35%) indicated the importance of face mask requirements.
When you factor in the outlook for the hotel industry, prospects appear brighter than some may think. The American Hotel & Lodging Association expects a few key hot points to lead growth:
Hotel occupancy in the United States for 2021 is expected to average 52.5%, up from 44% in 2020.
Occupancy rates are projected to rebound more significantly in 2022, reaching 61.4%.
Hotel room revenue is expected to climb from $85 billion last year to $110 billion this year
Business travelers are expected to be a driving force for a return to leisure travel.
Early aspects and Read More: Looking For Penny Stocks To Buy Now? 5 Travel & Hotel Stocks To Watch
CCL Big Picture (BIG Picture) LevelsSo I did a bigger picture and yes normally our focus is on penny stocks. But that also involves looking at broader trends. So, travel and leisure penny stocks, for instance. Sub $5 stocks like TRVG LTRPA and AHT are all at "risk" of pressure from negative sentiment in larger market trends. CCL has been somewhat a bellwether for certain travel & leisure penny stocks and right now appears to have its trend echoed with stocks like the ones mentioned here.
I took the Fib retracement out to feb 2018 when CCL reached its 3-year high and used last year's low as the anchor. What was interesting was how CCL traded around the 786 level. Coincidentally, it has been an interesting area for the stock and wouldn't you know it, though it broke below its 200DMA, it's back to testing the 786 fib line. With Biden commenting on the state of the economy next week, all technical levels could be important to monitor. In this case, the 786 fib seems to be a good one to pay attention to right now.
ABNB Summer runner + new highsABNB Daily TF
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Analysis
Strong name and after 2021 Q1 earnings, reporting revenue has already recovered to pre pandemic levels... $ABNB is showing strength for stockholders and more growth to come with International travel still on the verge of recovering. Possibly see an increase in $ABNB bookings with travel activity increasing as summer approaches. Now... after nearly correcting 40% from ATHs, looks like we have reached a nice bottom consolidation in 129-139 ranges with a nice breakout to 152.70 and building support around 144 level. Nice bull flag set up with two daily inside candles to start the week. These next couple days will determine direction. Ideally would like to see this push to 151 by the next two days, and open the next day above the previous days close for continuation to new highs (over 152.70 is breakout level).
Targets: 155, 162, 173
Key Levels
Support: 146.38, 143.88, 141
Resistance: 151, 152.70
Trade Ideas
1.Shares
2. 1-2+ week out calls (atm/ otm 5-10pts out *further otm buy more time*)
Expedia CEO: We’re seeing plenty of signs of demandWe’re seeing plenty of signs of demand:’ Expedia CEO on travel demand amid pandemic.
As we said yesterday on our earnings, we are seeing some signs of improvement in the first month of the year. It started around the holidays. And we've been slowly modestly improving from there. January was better than December.
It's kind of a story of waiting. And there are some countries like the US that are stronger, where people are moving around more. There are areas in Asia as well. And then there are places like Europe, where things are still fairly locked down.
So it's really where people are feeling more confident about travel, where people are allowed to travel. We're certainly seeing plenty of signs of demand. It's just a question of consumer confidence and risk tolerance and what governments are allowing people to do.
finance.yahoo.com
Sell Short: Golden Entertainment - Resorts CasinosSell Short: Golden Entertainment Inc - Ticker: GDEN - Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Resorts & Casinos
Go to the Invest2Success Advisory Page and Also for USA Asia Financial Forecasts
Sell Entry: 11.33 to 8.30
Stop-Loss: Available to Subscribers
Take Profit Price Targets: Available to Subscribers
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IHG - Retest of the breakout and 38.2% Fibonacci support.IHG is trading in a strong long term uptrend. The shares have corrected lower in recent weeks but buying support has been found at the previous break out level, which is now support. The correction is also inline with a 38.2% Fibonacci support level adding further weight to the bullish argument. Further upside is expected over the short to medium term.