Last Boarding CallAs the vaccines roll out and the world over comes the pandemic, travel will be popular among many that have been unable to for the past year.
While still heavily oversold (75% below the all time high in 2018) flight centre remains in a good position to bounce back.
Currently in a rising wedge, price is situated on support and is likely to take off.
AWA's Travel Survey (2020)
69% of Australians hope to travel within the first six months of restrictions being lifted
50% are keen to travel for two weeks or more on their next holiday
74% said they would be comfortable spending just as much on their next holiday as they did pre COVID-19
Travelban
S&P 500 working on breaching 10-year trend lineThe S&P 500 today is testing a trend line that it has held for 10 years. If it closes below this trend line, we will essentially be in official recession territory. It's possible we get a bounce from the trend line, but only if the administration walks back this 30-day European travel ban they announced in a panic yesterday. The travel ban will cause massive supply-chain and other business disruptions that aren't yet fully priced in, so I don't really see any prospect for a bounce as long as it remains in place. In addition to business disruptions, we haven't even had a taste yet of the financial crisis that's likely coming later this year as companies and homeowners default on subprime debt. This is going to be a bad one, and there's money to be made from puts on the S&P over the next few months.