American Airlines | AAL | Long at $14.00Similar to my cruise line picks, I anticipate airlines to quite literally "take off" in the coming years as interest rates are lowered and people travel more. These two industries never quite recovered from the pandemic, but their time to do so is "likely" fast approaching.
American Airlines NASDAQ:AAL has been consolidating near my selected long-term simple moving average (SMA) for several years. Many retail investors have been beaten up by the sudden up and (especially) down price movements, but this is where larger investors gather their shares. The fact NASDAQ:AAL did not make a new low in August 2024 is a hopeful sign from a technical analysis perspective. While the price may dip to close out the new lower price gaps, I think we are nearing the "take off" zone which will be a massive break through the long-term SMA. A confirmation that something bigger is brewing would be a price move into the $15s, dip down to the $12s, and the larger move up. Regardless of trying to predict bottoms, NASDAQ:AAL is in a personal buy zone at $14.00.
Target #1 = $15.25
Target #2 = $16.55
Target #3 = $18.40
Target #4 = $27.00 (very long-term outlook...)
Travelstocks
CCL - Big base break-out for Carnival
Carnival is breaking out big base starting early 2022 to 2024.
Recently Carnival released their earnings for their Q3 2024 (June-July-August), which is the best quarter for the industry.
The company made 1.74 bln USD net income from 7.9 bln USD revenue in the quarter.
For the current fiscal year, Carnival is expected to post earnings of $1.28 per share on $25.13 billion in revenues.
For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $1.62 per share on $26.03 billion in revenues.
Citi analysts in a research note said the cruising industry is experiencing strong web traffic and positive pricing trends, particularly for bookings in 2025.
They additionally raised Carnival's price target to $28 from $25
In terms of valuation, the stock currently trades at 15.8X current fiscal year EPS estimates, while peer industry average is 17.8X
BKNG may reverse SHORTBKNG is an expensive stock; it id not get that way being a slouch. Summer travel is sixty days
away. The 2H chart shows the highs of February followed by a paradoxical fall with good
earnings. Traders wanted better. Price fell past the Fibonacci support zone and into
the lower VWAP band lines.
Fundamentally German regulators are suing BKNG for some issues with deceptive advertising
and promotions with partners. In the past week price again rose this time to stall in that same
Fibonacci zone. The predictive algorithm of Lux Algo forecasts a rejection here with the price
moving down. I will short a single share of BKNG here. The stop loss will be set at 3675
while targeting 3440 above a support zone. I am expecting of $175 in realized profits in 5-10
days.
JETS, a travel ETF rising summer travel season approaches LONGJETS on the reliable daily chart is in trend up since last fall which followed a trend down
during the spring and summer. Travel stocks are booming here and there including TCOM
(Trips.com) in China. The airlines have high volumes and are competing on price and perks.
So are the cruise lines. This ETF is a way to capture some profit from the trends. If has lower
risk but also lower reward than an individual stock JETS is upside range bound by the
second upper VWAP line above it. The predictive algorithm of Luxalgo forecasts a rise
to about 22 before that VWAP line rejects price into a reversal. I am shorts JETS while also
shorting NCLH and going long on AAL. I expect to profit and use funds for some more
frequent travel. The karma in the whole thing is that it is a closed circle. Watch travel
companies including booking agents, spent money traveling get insights and then deploy
capital to work those markets for profit returns to recycle the funds into more travel.
RCL may set up a fall from a rising wedge SHORTRCL took a bit of time to recover from COVID but has now done well. The dialy chart reflects
this. Last year price rose in the winder and spring then fell when the summer ended and
reversed upside in November. Ir is now in a rising wedge and price is at the upper trendline.
It is confluent with the second upper VWAP band line suggesting not much room upside as
that line is providing dynamic resistance. The predictive algorithm from Lux Algo designed
to forward forecast from a lookback of the regression line to the left predicts a fall from
the ascending resistance trendline and the underside of that VWAP line. I will short
RCL here and entertain a hedged options trade to insure the short trade. I have shown a
peer stock NCLH from the cruise industry. It has not done as well as RCL. If RCL starts
falling significantly some traders may move their capital to NCLH and help it rise. I will put
NCLH on my watch list along with UAL, AAL, LUV, DAL and LUV as the summer travel
season will be underway in another sixty days and trader interest may rise with accumulation
and price action to follow.
BOOKING Who said travel season was over? 1D MA200 buy signal!Booking Holdings (BKNG) almost touched the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since December 30 2022, and reacted with a strong 1D rebound yesterday. That was also at the bottom of the 14-month Channel Up pattern. With the 1D RSI breaking below the 30.00 oversold barrier on Friday, this is technically the best buy opportunity since the Channel's first Low on October 13 2022.
In fact the two fractals are identical with the 2022 one breaking above the dashed Lower Highs trend-line and hitting the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, we issue a buy signal on BKNG, targeting 3140 (Fib 0.786) before the year is over.
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Booking (BKNG) -> Pay Very Close AttentionMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Booking Holdings.
Almost 10 years ago Booking Holdings stock entered a quite decent rising channel and is currently retesting the upper resistance from which I do expect a minor bearish rejection.
I would then look for longs at the $2400 structure zone or the $1900 rising channel support since the overall trend is still quite bullish and I do expect a bullish reversal there.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
LUV Weekly Chart Showing Heavy DemandSouthwest Airlines has been going through some turbulence with recent flight rearrangement issues, but for the most part has smoothened out all issues regarding flights. Air Travel Demand is still thriving and growing exponentially, respectively.
Southwest is a leader among a few others in Airline Stocks as they have High-Quality Management & Great Financial Strategy (e.g. Fuel hedging)
The stock has performed quite poorly since its post-COVID peak of $65 and has retreated nearly 50% while remaining a sound financial base. Southwest has been hovering around this major demand zone at the $30 area. As highlighted in green, this demand zone has repeatedly pushed LUV back up higher, and on this weekly chart, we can see a triple bottom starting to push back higher from this $31 level.
This weekly chart prevails a strong Risk/Reward towards Southwest as a swing-trade or LT investment.
Southwest has remained a fundamentally strong & sound company as they are the first American Airline Co. to reinstate their dividend. EPS projections are very optimistic for the next several years as demand increases & costs decrease. It would also be likely to see a rotation into the travel / Airlines sector as it has been quite low and non-volatile thru the past half year. Recent PT cuts lead me to believe Funds could be loading up
Conclusion: LONG NYSE:LUV through commons
Option Play: Credit-Spread : Jan 19, '24 Puts $30-$27.5p
JETS - Long term play for IRA accounts
Breaking out of the trendline on a decent volume.
Needs more push to clear the overhead supply and test 24. I think a pullback there and breakout would set this long term.
Note: these are 3 Day charts, so my confidence and comfort level is higher. Regardless stop has to be respected.
Disclaimer: Started a position today. Will add as long as 11 EMA is held.
DAL - Caught fire.
Been meaning to post this chart for a while. Another example of why trying to catch the bottom is fools gold. Most of the action happens after the confirmation, after buyers show up. I have been bullish on the airlines since march and got in early around 32...when it went up to 36 and continued to go lower, I cut the position, but kept this on close watch. as it tested the 200DMA, I opened a started and kept adding as it continued to show strength.
I got the full position on 06/05 on the backtest of the support. Since then, it has been on tear. Overall sector has been on fire since, but Delta and UAL are likely to do well over next few years.
Likely to slow down from here to 50, and maybe pullback. No reason to guess, just continue to ride it until it stops to work.
Booking Holdings: Reservation confirmed 🏨Booking Holdings has booked a room in our dark green target zone between $2939 and $3096 and should reach this destination via wave b in gray. During its stay, the share should establish the distinctive top of the current movement and then leave its dark green lodging on the southern side, heading for the support at $2456. However, there is a 30% chance that wave alt.b in gray could have already checked out and that Booking Holdings could start its journey below $2456 earlier. In that case, the dark green hotel room would remain vacated.
United Airlines Might Be Taking OffUnited Airlines has been going sideways for 2-1/2 years, but now it may be getting ready for takeoff.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher lows over the past month as prices remained below November 11's closing price. The result was an ascending triangle that UAL escaped yesterday.
Next, Bollinger Band Width narrowed last week to its tightest reading since the coronavirus pandemic. That could give it potential for prices to expand.
Moving averages could also give some signals. Notice how the short-term 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained above the 21-day EMA since mid-October. (Shown on this chart by our 2 MA Ratio custom script.) The longer-term 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is also nearing a potential “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA.
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Will Marriott Attempt a Breakout?Marriott has gone essentially nowhere since the pandemic began almost three years ago. But now the hotel giant could be getting ready to move.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the tight consolidation over the past three weeks. Notice how MAR has stayed above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). It’s a change from August and September, when prices were trapped below the 200-day SMA.
There’s also a falling trendline along the highs of June and September, which the stock is now above.
In both cases, old resistance seems to be morphing into new support.
Second, consider the series of higher lows since June. Have long-term buyers added at incrementally richer prices?
Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained above the 21-day EMA since mid-October. This could reflect a favorable short-term trend. (See the lower study with our 2 MA Ratio custom script.)
Finally, on the weekly chart, MAR is in the process of forming a bullish outside candle.
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TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
BA - Long idea followed by huge retracement.Daily consolidating in a bull flag for wave 4. We will likely see new highs on this name, followed by a big pullback soon.
179.32 breakout level with a target of 183 187 where we can see some fresh pool of sellers showing up and pushing the price down back into 150s.
Is American Finally Cleared for Takeoff?American Airlines has struggled for years. Could it now regain lost altitude?
The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trend line along the highs of May, August and September. The carrier pushed through that resistance last week and has now bounced at it. Has the line become support?
Next is the recent low around $12. This closely matches the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the entire rally between March 2020 and May 2021. (For the sake of visual simplicity, the other retracement lines are not shown.)
Including the low in June, AAL has also formed a double bottom around the same price level. That’s another potential sign of sellers losing control.
Third, the Relative Strength Index has shown positive divergence over the same time period.
Finally seasonality and fundamentals could be in play as travel rebounds into the holidays. TSA data shows daily flights consistently back above 2 million per day. AAL also reported strong quarterly numbers last week (echoing the results of peers like Delta Airlines and United Airlines ).
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TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
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Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
Bullish Unusual Options Activity on CCL Sep 9.50 callNYSE:CCL $325K in premium traded for $9.5 strike calls for Friday September 30th 2022 expiration traded today.
Unusual Activity for $9.5 calls about 28,000 contracts traded throughout the day @ approx $0.25 per contract (Above Open interest of only 3200)
Carnival Corp earnings date is 09/29/2022 Thursday
Stock is at an interesting price level. If stock price moves up and IV increases could help add premium value to the call options.
Risks : Short Expiration - Theta Risk. Earnings Risks.
I would recommend a vertical spread to keep theta at bay especially after earnings when IV will drop reducing the price of the options if you expect to hold this past earning.
Entry Above: 9.01
Target 9.36, 9.65, 9.96
SL close below 8.74
You can use the above levels to trade the stock as well with risk reward ratio of approx 3.65 (defined risk)
Follow more unusual activity signup using my referral link marketaction.live
Important Note: This is a short duration contract with earnings risk. Please trade responsibly.
Please let me know in the comment if you find this useful.
BOEING approaching a 1 year MA Resistance ZoneBoeing (BA) has been on a strong rise ever since the June 14 Low, with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting. This trend is approaching its most important long-term test as the Resistance Zone formed by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) is just above. This Resistance Zone has rejected every break-out attempt since August 17 2021 (the only 1D candle that closed above was the November 15 2021 but no 1W candle every closed above).
As a result, it is the critical test that will most likely issue the trend of the next months. A 1W close above this Resistance Zone, is a bullish break-out signal targeting $220.00 which is just below the Resistance cluster shown on the chart. A rejection on the 1D MA200/ 1W MA50 Resistance zone, targets the 1D MA50 on the short-term at least. We have to give the bullish break a higher probability as the 1W RSI is on bullish reversal pattern since the May 23 low.
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ABNB reversing?I like the company overall.
And it just hit an all time low. I already own a lot of shares, so i am interested in averaging my position.
I have 2 different strategies or entries.
1- Above 98
2- At 87.60 (lows)
Ideally we should wait for a break of the trendline.
But it is looking like we just made a new lower high, so it could be reversing already
Novaturas (NTU1L) | Breakout From The Chart Pattern.Hi,
Novaturas has made a breakout from the bullish chart pattern called Falling Wedge. Mid-term higher high will confirm it and currently the retest are taking place which is also supported with strong horizontal area.
Do your own research and if it's matching with my TA then you are ready to go!
Regards,
Vaido
RCL in a long term downward trendLooking at the past two years of charts for RCL (one of my favorite stocks, also a cruise line member, nice little perk if you own 100 shares on each trip).
So charting this out taking out the noise of March 2020 we are in a downward channel, but it is not a very steep downward channel which is comforting.
Looking for buying opportunities at the bottom of the channel and then waiting to see price action at the top of the channel. Very careful on the buys right now given the pressure on the entire market at the moment, and also the amount of debt that the leisure travel industry has on it at the moment.
Bulls in the Driver’s Seat at Avis Budget?Avis Budget rallied in the fourth quarter on a value-driven short squeeze. It’s calmed down since but now may be showing some interesting patterns.
First, consider the bounce off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on February 24. That could suggest the longer-term uptrend remains in effect.
Second, notice how prices have stayed in a tight channel since mid-March. Are they starting to resemble a bullish flag?
Third, CAR’s 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained above the 21-day EMA. That suggests the shorter-term trend remains positive.
Fourth, stochastics are nearly oversold despite only a modest pullback in the shares.
Finally, the macro situation may favor CAR because it trades for less than 15 times earnings (placing it more in the “value” camp than “growth”). It could also benefit from the onset of summer vacations starting next month. Earnings are due May 2 in the post market.
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Important Information
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risks. Please click here for TradeStation Crypto’s risk disclosures on investing and trading in cryptocurrencies.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .