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Treasuries

10 yrTreasuries look to be signaling that yesterday & today are in fact buy the dip we have risk on sentiment coming next couple weeks. If we check the weekly RSI 10 yr yields r very overbought, coincidentally so are all major indices RSI weekly indicators. Conclusion is we are in the final chapters of the bull market since March and another crash is imminent. But will likely be another opportunity to buy the best dip before another massive bull market over the next few years.
TVC:US10YLong
by Big_Mike716
GoNoGo Charts sees strength in treasuries, TLTInvesting in treasuries has always been seen as a flight to safety and this last few months has been no different. Although the S&P 500 has rallied sharply since falling into a bear market in March, it is still down around 14% year to date. TLT, the treasury bond fund, on the other hand, is up almost 25% over the same period. The GoNoGo Trend signaled a “Go” early in January and although it painted 1 amber bar on the 18th of March has continued to paint blue bars ever since. Note that there have been several green re-entry icons during this time.

 Interestingly, we recently tested zero on the GoNoGo Oscillator and have bounced off it. This suggests a renewed upward move. The most recent re-entry green circle was April 20th. An upside target could be the prior high on March 9th.

 What does this mean for the S&P 500? See the linked idea below.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by GoNoGoCharts
1
Apple Support - lower than you thinkHi, thanks for viewing. I think there is less demand for over-priced (subjective call) personal electronics at the moment. People are rightly thinking about more essential items, paying down debt, and increasing savings. Probably worth pointing out how strong the 200 week moving average is as support - somewhere around 185, which is lower than people think. Anyone out there thinking that they are safe because "Warren Buffett bough Apple" need to look into the recent cut-losses by Berkshire Hathaway. Warren said many many times in the past things along the lines of "I don't understand electronics firms, so I don't invest in them," "I don't understand Apple so I don't invest," "if I ever invest in airlines - then call the Psychologist because I have lost my mind." Not direct quotes, but anyone who has followed Warren Buffett for a long time will know what I am talking about. So, what happened recently? Berkshire cut losses on Delta Airlines - shares bough expecting the bail-out would somehow replace lost customer demand and bleak fundamentals. To hear that Warren even bought Airline shares just doesn't sound right to me. The same here, they invested in Stocks they didn't understand as well as their traditional 'bread and butter', departed dramatically from a value investing philosophy, and they will have to take their losses - just like everyone else. Apple is over-valued. Anything that is 'consumer discretionary' that may be affected by the steep drop-off in consumer demand will be sold - at least until the future comes into sharper focus. I bought a cheaper smartphone recently after getting annoyed at having to charge my iPhone before the day was over. My new phone has an 11,000Mah battery and I don't even need to charge it every day - every second day is more than enough. I don't need to pay crazy prices for cordless earphones, or $1000 for a computer stand etc etc. Apples has a good product, not necessarily the best in class, but they are compensating for lower sales by raising their prices - that makes them more vulnerable to lower consumer discretionary spending in the event of an economic downturn. I am not sure if I will be a buyer at $185, because we are in the biggest economic shock of a lifetime. But there will likely be a bounce at that level. Now we can watch how this market unfolds. The forces at play are massive US, ECB, BOJ stimulus versus a massive supply chain, and demand shock. Unfortunately, the Fed cannot make people able to afford their credit card bills, their rent, medical costs, cannot re-create a supply chain, or convince anyone that savings aren't essential right now. Long-term, they will have to convince the public that massive and un-serviceable Fed and Public debt isn't something to worry about. That owning public debt that yields below inflation and cannot be paid from income is a good idea. I am very concerned that all the monetised debt this year and next will be met with lower and lower demand as people realise they are not being adequately compensated to hold it, and that at maturity it will be paid in newly printed devalued USD. US Treasuries are a promise to deliver USD in the future, that promise to pay is very unlikely to be funded by additional income, so T-bonds are effectively a promise to print money. Anyone who knows about gold, knows that all the brakes have been taken off the gold price recently. ZIRP (that can never be raised), global uncertainty, negative real yields of 10 year T-bonds, and a struggling equity market, all lend strength (and reduce the opportunity cost to hold it) of gold. Ok, I ended up going a little off-road there. But we are over-all in a "risk off" environment. Safe havens will out-perform vs equities or treasuries (treasuries have stopped being a safe haven). Corporate debt is definitely not a safe haven.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by flyinkiwi10
5
SPX - Relief Rally - Stimulus to the Rescue + Bonds/ Gold UpdateQuick SPX update: ~ Expecting a brief relief rally (haven't we all) ~ Target is in between the 38.2% and the 50% Fib retracement (2,650 - 2,800) ~ Looking for a potential move to the 21 daily ema, at which point i will be looking to go bearish again ~ The move will likely be on the back of the "positive" stimulus news, but i am very skeptical of how the markets will respond to this, which ultimately amounts to an admission that Covid19 is crippling the US economy and that one should expect higher inflation moving forward Additional Analysis: Gold ---> I believe that there are many key factors moving forward (i will elaborate in a further post), these include the demand for physical beginning to outstrip supply (premiums are reflecting this), the issue of the futures contracts being used to drive prices down as a policy tool (to prevent a further erosion of confidence) and the fundamental drive of higher inflation expectations. Overall i am very bullish on Gold going forward, but i also am expecting to see some near-term weakness. US Bonds ---> The end goal is zero, make no mistake, US10Y and a host of other maturities will hit the "zero bound" within 12 months or even sooner. This will present a host of challenges, namely it will significantly reduce the attractiveness of US Treasuries as a safe haven, this will most likely drive capital into gold, leaving the only buyers as the Federal Reserve, thus the US will enter a death spiral, furthering their dependence on low/ negative rates. I believe the best way to play this macro outlook, is to leave US bonds alone, yes there will be capital gains to make, but the yields are already so low, better to let that train leave the station without you, the USD will appreciate, at least in the near-term, so a play on DXY is on the cards. But the better play in my opinion is to use the yields as an indicator as to when to shift focus to gold, as when US bonds hit the zero bound, the carry cost for gold is now a non-issue and the yellow metal is now a much more attractive safe haven. In fact, this may very well be a contributing factor to the growing strength of gold, as other investors will also be keenly watching the yields on US Treasuries. - TradingEdge
SP:SPXLong
by Profit_Link
What is going on with GOLD?Thanks for viewing, I labelled this as "long" despite some as yet unexplained steep price reductions in the short to medium term. I did that because I saw that price drops were coming but that was just a signal to add to purchases, as opposed to sell. Why do I expect price drops in the short to medium term? 1. Elliot Wave seems to indicate the ending of wave (3) up, it is always hard to be sure, but anyone can see the three sections of price advance (and two declines) in the last two years, 2. There was rather evident bearish RSI divergence (higher price highs vs lower highs on the RSI) that emerged even before this last weeks price drop - indicating a loss of momentum, 3. A couple of rejections in a row from the USD1700 level, 4. Gold appears to be "overbought" on your technical indicator of choice (and it is hard to afford at the moment - many people will be waiting for a pull-back before buying - many many others can't or won't wait however. 5. Just look back a few years, the same thing happened in 2008, there was a steep decline in the price of gold during the last recession (it still gained 23% over the duration of the recession) because the same circumstances applied - some people were forced to sell due to circumstances - the rest had the ability to hold and also clearly saw the writing on the wall). Why do I remain long? 1. Let me count the ways. a.It is the perfect investment vehicle for the moment (uncertainty, money markets, debt markets and supply chains freezing up (bullion cannot get through either)), b.record levels of open market operations announced by the US fed in the past week (otherwise their 30 year bond issue was going to possibly fail to find sufficient buyers - this should be a major salient red flag: the largest, supposedly most credit-worthy country in the world, was a few minutes (about 20 minutes I think) from having a sovereign bond issuance fail to find sufficient buyers if they didn't announce a new round of quantitative easing), c. negative real fixed interest yields and the increasing possibility of negative nominal yields (this has changed very quickly from yield increases even mid last year) which mean that the "negative carry" aspect of gold (storage fees and no interest income) is less and less of a factor, d. If you take inflation into account (let alone the comparably much larger increases in the money supply) gold is still significantly undervalue in real terms - yet $1600 sounds like a lot for just over 31grams of gold but not when you consider how worthless the currency has been made and will continue to become. There is a possibility of gold going geometric a la Venezuela, Argentina, Weimar Germany etc etc - some truly unimaginable gold prices are possible. If gold 'appreciates' to account for the money supply (as it has done before in times of crisis) a doubling or even tripling in the price of gold may be a low-side estimate youtu.be If gold had to go to 18,000/oz in 2018 to account for the money supply - imagine what it will have to go to after the printing presses really get going., e. I am not an economist by any means but I suspect that we have more in common with Weimar Germany than most realise - inflation is somewhere in the pipeline - but first massive MONEY PRINTING to "solve" all our problems, f. In the developing country I live in gold has been setting new all time highs again and again (it waited one whole year after the USD 2011 ATH to set new highs in local currency terms) when you have a weak currency the best time to buy gold is always "right now." Gold isn't gaining in value so much as your currency is depreciating in real purchasing power (which is happening to a lesser degree in the US), g. After reading Ray Dalio's free e-book about big debt crises I was to hear that 'credit spreads were widening' indicating that credit markets were only now reappraising the previously under-appreciated risks of BBB, BB, and B grades of Corporate Debt. Well I hear that a lot now - Last I heard credit spreads for (non-investment grade) BB debt are 815 basis points (8.15%pa above Treasury yields) which is a "very significant and rapid re-pricing in high yield debt youtu.be But significant credit rating downgrades from BBB (lowest investment grade) to BB aren't expected to be significant according to JP Morgan's Jim Casey - feel better? It doesn't make me feel better. The major driver in the US equity markets has been leveraged corporate buy-backs and any buy-backs from the last 12 -18 months are underwater while costing interest - at a minimum this will cause some pressure on Corporate finances and executives, h. I heard this last week; gold is unsurance (insurance when you "are unsure what is going to happen, i. gold IS money, j. I wanted to diversity out of fiat currency as massive stimulus efforts by central banks will devalue all major currencies (maybe not much in relative terms - but in overall terms), k. Gold demand set new records in 2019 and gold demand has ALREADY surpassed 50% of the 2019 demand - 2020 is on track to DOUBLE gold demand (this sort of thing is never predicted in advance - and hasn't been) - I read this on investing.com I think but haven't got a link for you, l. Gold is valued in every culture all over the world and has been for thousands of years, I am sure there are more reasons but I have things to do. But before I go, I just wanted to mention a predicted, predictable issue with sourcing gold and silver bullion. Yesterday, my bullion dealer significantly raised premiums. The premiums on items I regularly buy were raised from 5% to almost 35% in the course of a day. Right now we have futures prices that have become disconnected from the price of physical bullion. Why? Record demand along with supply chain problems - reportedly "several months" to restock supply minted in China. As Mike Maloney likes to say; buy silver now before it becomes unobtanium and unaffordium youtu.be He often recounts large time periods during the last major bull-run where silver couldn't be sourced (for any price) and even gold could only be sourced in a minimum of 1kg bars and had zero supply at all for a few days. He also mentioned that premiums went through the roof at those times - so the historical spot prices don't paint the picture. I believe the next few months might even be the last realistic chance to accumulate gold at reasonably affordable levels. Stay safe everyone.
TVC:GOLDLong
by flyinkiwi10
2