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Treasuries

US 10 Year yield looks to be heading lower soonThe 10 year treasury yield looks ready to resolve its multi-month consolidation triangle to the downside. There's room for another run up to the .70% area over the next couple weeks, but I ultimately believe we are heading for lower yields. Note the fairly swift rejection from the rally above the 50MA at the end of May / start of June. I'm not making any plays directly on treasuries, but watching closely because a definitive break lower in yields would signal that stock markets may be heading for a major risk-off move.
TVC:US10Y
by ZChartDoc
TLT Bull Flag - Heading to 170 and BeyondWhen looking at the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) exchange traded fund (ETF), it is important to consider whether or not interest rates are likely to rise or remain low. Here, the relationship between Treasury yield bonds and interest rates is key to understand. Generally speaking, if you predict interest rates to rise in the future, it is best to avoid long-term bonds (such as the TFT, which is a 20-year Treasury bond) that could lock in a lower interest rate. However, if you believe interest rates will fall, then it makes sense to invest in an ETF like the TFT. Long-dated U.S. Treasuries remain the best non-derivative hedge for Canadian investors. Now there will be a time when we won’t want to touch US Treasuries with a 10 foot pole but for now, Treasuries and the U.S. dollar are still seen as safe haven assets and should provide us protection if/when stocks falter.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by TMoneyBidness
10 yrTreasuries look to be signaling that yesterday & today are in fact buy the dip we have risk on sentiment coming next couple weeks. If we check the weekly RSI 10 yr yields r very overbought, coincidentally so are all major indices RSI weekly indicators. Conclusion is we are in the final chapters of the bull market since March and another crash is imminent. But will likely be another opportunity to buy the best dip before another massive bull market over the next few years.
TVC:US10YLong
by Big_Mike716
GoNoGo Charts sees strength in treasuries, TLTInvesting in treasuries has always been seen as a flight to safety and this last few months has been no different. Although the S&P 500 has rallied sharply since falling into a bear market in March, it is still down around 14% year to date. TLT, the treasury bond fund, on the other hand, is up almost 25% over the same period. The GoNoGo Trend signaled a “Go” early in January and although it painted 1 amber bar on the 18th of March has continued to paint blue bars ever since. Note that there have been several green re-entry icons during this time.

 Interestingly, we recently tested zero on the GoNoGo Oscillator and have bounced off it. This suggests a renewed upward move. The most recent re-entry green circle was April 20th. An upside target could be the prior high on March 9th.

 What does this mean for the S&P 500? See the linked idea below.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by GoNoGoCharts
1
Apple Support - lower than you thinkHi, thanks for viewing. I think there is less demand for over-priced (subjective call) personal electronics at the moment. People are rightly thinking about more essential items, paying down debt, and increasing savings. Probably worth pointing out how strong the 200 week moving average is as support - somewhere around 185, which is lower than people think. Anyone out there thinking that they are safe because "Warren Buffett bough Apple" need to look into the recent cut-losses by Berkshire Hathaway. Warren said many many times in the past things along the lines of "I don't understand electronics firms, so I don't invest in them," "I don't understand Apple so I don't invest," "if I ever invest in airlines - then call the Psychologist because I have lost my mind." Not direct quotes, but anyone who has followed Warren Buffett for a long time will know what I am talking about. So, what happened recently? Berkshire cut losses on Delta Airlines - shares bough expecting the bail-out would somehow replace lost customer demand and bleak fundamentals. To hear that Warren even bought Airline shares just doesn't sound right to me. The same here, they invested in Stocks they didn't understand as well as their traditional 'bread and butter', departed dramatically from a value investing philosophy, and they will have to take their losses - just like everyone else. Apple is over-valued. Anything that is 'consumer discretionary' that may be affected by the steep drop-off in consumer demand will be sold - at least until the future comes into sharper focus. I bought a cheaper smartphone recently after getting annoyed at having to charge my iPhone before the day was over. My new phone has an 11,000Mah battery and I don't even need to charge it every day - every second day is more than enough. I don't need to pay crazy prices for cordless earphones, or $1000 for a computer stand etc etc. Apples has a good product, not necessarily the best in class, but they are compensating for lower sales by raising their prices - that makes them more vulnerable to lower consumer discretionary spending in the event of an economic downturn. I am not sure if I will be a buyer at $185, because we are in the biggest economic shock of a lifetime. But there will likely be a bounce at that level. Now we can watch how this market unfolds. The forces at play are massive US, ECB, BOJ stimulus versus a massive supply chain, and demand shock. Unfortunately, the Fed cannot make people able to afford their credit card bills, their rent, medical costs, cannot re-create a supply chain, or convince anyone that savings aren't essential right now. Long-term, they will have to convince the public that massive and un-serviceable Fed and Public debt isn't something to worry about. That owning public debt that yields below inflation and cannot be paid from income is a good idea. I am very concerned that all the monetised debt this year and next will be met with lower and lower demand as people realise they are not being adequately compensated to hold it, and that at maturity it will be paid in newly printed devalued USD. US Treasuries are a promise to deliver USD in the future, that promise to pay is very unlikely to be funded by additional income, so T-bonds are effectively a promise to print money. Anyone who knows about gold, knows that all the brakes have been taken off the gold price recently. ZIRP (that can never be raised), global uncertainty, negative real yields of 10 year T-bonds, and a struggling equity market, all lend strength (and reduce the opportunity cost to hold it) of gold. Ok, I ended up going a little off-road there. But we are over-all in a "risk off" environment. Safe havens will out-perform vs equities or treasuries (treasuries have stopped being a safe haven). Corporate debt is definitely not a safe haven.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by flyinkiwi10
5
SPX - Relief Rally - Stimulus to the Rescue + Bonds/ Gold UpdateQuick SPX update: ~ Expecting a brief relief rally (haven't we all) ~ Target is in between the 38.2% and the 50% Fib retracement (2,650 - 2,800) ~ Looking for a potential move to the 21 daily ema, at which point i will be looking to go bearish again ~ The move will likely be on the back of the "positive" stimulus news, but i am very skeptical of how the markets will respond to this, which ultimately amounts to an admission that Covid19 is crippling the US economy and that one should expect higher inflation moving forward Additional Analysis: Gold ---> I believe that there are many key factors moving forward (i will elaborate in a further post), these include the demand for physical beginning to outstrip supply (premiums are reflecting this), the issue of the futures contracts being used to drive prices down as a policy tool (to prevent a further erosion of confidence) and the fundamental drive of higher inflation expectations. Overall i am very bullish on Gold going forward, but i also am expecting to see some near-term weakness. US Bonds ---> The end goal is zero, make no mistake, US10Y and a host of other maturities will hit the "zero bound" within 12 months or even sooner. This will present a host of challenges, namely it will significantly reduce the attractiveness of US Treasuries as a safe haven, this will most likely drive capital into gold, leaving the only buyers as the Federal Reserve, thus the US will enter a death spiral, furthering their dependence on low/ negative rates. I believe the best way to play this macro outlook, is to leave US bonds alone, yes there will be capital gains to make, but the yields are already so low, better to let that train leave the station without you, the USD will appreciate, at least in the near-term, so a play on DXY is on the cards. But the better play in my opinion is to use the yields as an indicator as to when to shift focus to gold, as when US bonds hit the zero bound, the carry cost for gold is now a non-issue and the yellow metal is now a much more attractive safe haven. In fact, this may very well be a contributing factor to the growing strength of gold, as other investors will also be keenly watching the yields on US Treasuries. - TradingEdge
SP:SPXLong
by Profit_Link