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Treasuries

The Next Bubble, where is it? Bitcoin/Crypto analysisAll my thoughts are on the chart. For reference, definition of treasuries yield curve: According to Investopedia, the yield curve graphs the relationship between bond yields and bond maturity. More specifically, the yield curve captures the perceived risks of bonds with various maturities to bond investors. The U.S. Treasury Department issues bonds with maturities ranging from one month to 30 years. As bonds with longer maturities usually carry higher risk, such bonds have higher yields than do bonds with shorter maturities. Due to this, a normal yield curve reflects increasing bond yields as maturity increases. However, the yield curve can sometimes become flat or inverted. In a flat yield curve, short-term bonds have approximately the same yield as long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve reflects decreasing bond yields as maturity increases. Such yield curves are harbingers of an economic recession .
TVC:US10Y
by mushroomer
Buy Bonds and Buy DollarsA number of string events appear to be shifting the economic landscape around the world of late. Extreme euphoria one year ago ("Economies are booming, time to raise interest rates more"), turned into panic at the end of 2018 with slowdowns across the board. The prompt support provided by US officials (is keeping markets going up their job?), made everyone forget the issues, problems and fundamentals... Back to business as usual, just keep buying! The treasuries market however is a boat much harder to steer and is subject to global flows of capital - this market started saying a different story... Yields tend consistently to indicate the path for economies... The smart money is always in search of yield for a given amount of risk. When the balance of the two shifts re-allocations occur at a global level, moving the respective markets accordingly. A slowing world growth / economy increases risks in regions and markets that traditionally support higher returns. At the moment fundamentals in economies around the world are deteriorating, prompting investors to switch their focus to risk-management, as opposed to returns. A break-out of the 10 year yield channel at the beginning of the year, sent everyone to the gates ("interests going to 4%, 5%, 6% etc.), just to be proved wrong in the recent sell-off. The re-entry in the channel is further compounded by the 3M-10Y yield curve going negative - a hotly debated topic and one for which everyone has an opinion... But the common attitude on the street is "this time is different..." The spike in yields over the last 1-2 weeks is most likely just a "breather" before moving again to the downside. In short, economies around the globe are slowing... The US is not a leading indicator of yields for the rest of the world, it just appears to have managed to put some ammunition in its arsenal for when things turn south (something other central banks do not have - e.g. EU, Japan etc.). So... Buy Bonds and Buy Dollars
TVC:US10YShort
by TheSwissMacroExplorer
Triangle On Treasuries Suggests Limited Upside On StocksHello traders! Today we will talk about treasuries (10year US Notes) and stocks (S&P500). Well, as you may already know, treasuries and stocks are more or less in negative correlation and what we have noticed that 10y US Notes can be forming a big bullish triangle, while S&P500 can be finally finishing a five-wave rally from lows. In EW theory, triangles are usually continuation patterns, so seems like treasuries can be headed higher, which means that stocks can see limited upside, especially now when we can clearly see five waves up from lows and according to EW rules, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows! That said, if we are right, then ideal scenario would be a rally into the final wave "v" on treasuries, while stocks may see a deeper a-b-c correction! So, be aware of a potential sell-off and risk-off mode on stocks. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
OANDA:USB10YUSDEducation
by ew-forecast
Watch Treasuries for signs of the next Equity selloffThe inverse correlation of Stocks and Bonds have been quite telling in the recent months of equity volatility. The 10Y yield went from 3.25% in early Nov to lows of 2.55% as participants flew to safety in treasuries. In the last couple weeks as equities have recovered from the Dec 24th meltdown, treasuries have been sold with yields resting now around 2.75-2.8%. I am looking to see demand for treasuries as the major Equity indices test overhead resistance. After a 14% rally on the S&P in a matter of a month a pullback looks likely. If we see 10Y yields once again trending down expect blood for risk assets. Cheers
TVC:US10Y
by skyman9025
Long TLTI believe NASDAQ:TLT is breaking out. The main thesis I have been following is global slowdown is coming within the next 2 years. If this occurs the Fed's hand will be forced to stimulate the economy by having constant or lowering rates. From this we can derive that NASDAQ:TLT must go up since rates and bonds are inversely related. Finally with NASDAQ:TLT breaking out of this wedge and the potential short squeeze could lead to a huge rally just like 2007-2008. The rally from its bottom (May 2007) to the top (Dec 2008) is a 50% return. * This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by OptionalIdeas
Forecast US 10 year treasury yieldThis is an attempt to forecast the yield on treasury notes based on technical analysis. Clearly this is an incomplete analysis as fundamentals will also impact heavily. So let us consider the following a base case. First, there are trends in the yield. I would not call it cycles because they have different duration. Those thends tend to last a longer time, more than six months. I use the average trend duration to make a forecast of the bottom. Second, Fibonacci is used to make a price projection. 38% retracement would mean going down to 2.5% (from 2.8% today). 62% retracement is 2.0%. The fall in yield will not be smooth and will have ups and downs (indicated by an ABC pattern from Elliott. but it could equally well be an 12345). Forecast: In July 2019 the yield will have fallen substantially. A good benchmark is 2.3%. The analysis is incomplete because it does not take explicit Fed action into account. A 10 year yield of 2.5% would invert the yield curve even without any further increase in the short term rate by the Fed.
TVC:US10YShort
by Mats000
US 10y Bond1) Due to the zig-zag nature of the yield values, historically, it seems proper to use Elliott-waves. 2) There was a rate-hike environment in the past which seems similar to the current price action. Coincidentally the wave 5 drop corresponds to the year 2020; 2020 is the year many talking heads are calling for a US recession. 3) In recent years bonds and stocks have rallied in tandem, however, which means a recession isn't necessarily the only way to arrive at the 5th wave. A powerful US economy and continuation of recent co-variance could also push yields lower. 4) I do not believe the well-establish downward trend will be broken, and lower yields are likely to exist post 2020.
TVC:US10YLong
by HyerQuality
The bond bear is not here yet.... use a log scaleThere have been a lot of talks of a bond bear market over the past year. That would be a big problem, but it's not here yet. The biggest problem is that too many chartists are using and circulating charts of trend resistance breaking in bonds that do not use log scales. I get that it seems intuitively dumb for a yield chart to use a log scale, but that's how this has traded for the better part of the last 20 years. Trade what is, not what you think should be. Turns out we haven't yet hit the top channel here, so we're not in a bond bear. It also turns out that touching the top channel occurred every time the fed quit hiking rates over the past 30 years, which preceded the last 3 recessions / bear markets by 1-2 months at least. Short term, we're in a rising wedge that the bond market has obeyed quite well. If we rise directly to the top of the channel, that would imply a May 2019 break of this uptrend and a recession / bear market starting around mid 2019 into 2020. Who knows how this actually plays out, but I know we haven't hit a true bond bear yet, and even when we do, it'll probably be far less exciting than people want to believe.
TVC:US10Y
by GTStockmaster
2
Clear Leading Diagonal - time for a pullback - then up, up, awayThe minute leading diagonal has clearly broken the larger downward wave, which ended in a larger ending diagonal... Expect a short term pullback to the wave iv level and then a continued rise at least 1.618 times the length of this first leading diagonal wave... Short term pullback would be consistent with a modest recovery in equities early next week before a larger sell-off in equities as the treasury rates resume their rise...
TLong
by broughro