10-YEAR Treasury T-note is on the support.Look forward on CBOT:ZN1! and TNX index retrace in a short time.
Treasuries
What is going on?U.S. treasury bond yields are signalling deflation, whilst stock melt up indicating an inflationary economy. Does the bond market know something that stocks don't?
Gold OUTLOOK Long term Gold Chart I see a Potential Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern forming "waiting 4 right shoulder".
At moment long call option is active.
But this is what i'll be tracking as the week goes on.
So, let's see how geopolitics will react.
#Gold and Treasuries Rallied on Geopolitical tension
#Trump Tax
#North Korean Problem and French election
this is a general market view!
Happy trading!
Moon time for UST 10 YR yieldsAs you can see, yields are poised to break above the bull flag; a convincing break would target 3% as a minimum.
Time to buy some moon boots guys and ditch any $JNUG dreams.
LOOKING TO GO LONG T-BONDS Promising setup developing at TLT (treasury bond ETF) at the daily timeframe.
Looking to go long with momentum or at pullback to the trendline.
First tactical target 200SMA, main target 129-130 area (measured move + 50% level of Jul-Dec 2016 move). Setup invalidated with daily close below 120.
US 10-year treasury yield - Double top reversalA weekly close below 2.3% would open up downside towards 2.0% (target as per measured height method)
INTERMARKET | US05Y vs GC1!As real rates rise, the probability of gold having topped increases significantly
TBT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT 20 YEAR TREASURY TBT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT 20 YEAR TREASURY - look for short at 40.60 levels
TLT ISHARES 20 YEARS TREASURY BONDTLT ISHARES 20 YEARS TREASURY BOND
bearish move anticipated. I see two holes to be filled and one is at the bottom. TLT never leaves gaps unfilled. the motto is "leave no gaps (man) behind".
10 Year T-Note Futures: Uptrend in motionWe have a strong uptrend signal in treasury notes and potential for a big upside move. I'm currently long $TMF, as my proxy for this move, since $TLT was lower than 10 Year Note futures, offering a more interesting risk/reward (as per Tim West's posts). Right now, I think the move to the upside is confirmed, so, if you're not in, you could look into buying either instrument on dips. Stop losses can be tight, but you're better off without one, and simply adjusting size based on volatility (1-3 times the daily ATR -11 periods- for your 'stop' distance, and thus size to fit your risk criteria).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
INTERMARKET | Gold vs Treasuries DivergenceWorth keeping an eye on here to see whether the divergence yields some timing insight here into gold.
TREASURY YIELDS TO GO BACK UP - Short BondsUptrend should resume after the 61.8% retracement and bullish divergence.
Fundamentally a normal mean reversion of term premium is occurring.
This should also support the USD in the medium-term and keep the uptrend intact for 2017.
However the move may be choppy because of extreme long positioning.
30 Year Treasury REVERSE $ZB_F $TLT $ZB1! #bonds #futures #forexWe are getting the beginnings of our Harmonic Breakout to upside this AM. Targets Shown on Chart.
EURUSD: Tight stop loss longEURUSD has an interesting signal in the short term. The chart points to more upside here, but the most interesting thing is that the stop loss for this long trade is very tight. Also, we have a record position in speculator shorts in treasuries plus a massive selloff courtesy of China, which would correlate with today's dip in the Euro (on the back of Yellen's remarks as well).
With these things in mind, there're big expectations going into Trump's inauguration on Friday, and the downtrend mode resistance has been breached in the daily and weekly charts here, so, upside is possible. I don't discard a selloff in the Pound, so I'd keep that short as my backup plan, but I'm taking this long here.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
treasury buying slowstreasuries coiling up for another move. momentum on 10y crashing even with feb no-hike odds at 98%. hawkish minutes meeting next month could very well send yields ripping. good watchlist candidate.
Positioning | Net Non-Commercial US 10y T-NotesAt extreme levels, however, the data doesn't look correct... I'm certain it is the most extreme since 2005!
TLT: Short term rally, potential pullback in a downtrendTLT offers a low risk buy if we make a new high tomorrow, with a stop under the recent swing low.
We can aim for a retest of weekly resistance, as signaled on chart. I'd rather buy and exit there to be safe. There's a chance we might be able to flip short at that level, but I'd rather take that trade by buying $USDJPY and $USDSEK for instance, and/or shorting $EURUSD.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Sell the hell out of LT treasuries if we pullback to the meanOne of the most obvious trades out there. Pullback to mean would be KILLER value. Will be watching this closely and using Marty Armstrong's Socrates levels for confirmation.
There is certainly a chance we continue down further to that next support trend line before pulling back. In that instance we may see a H&S formation occur with the right shoulder at fib.
US 10-yr yield – rally overdone or more to come?The global benchmark for the rates – the US 10-year Treasury yield has rallied this month from 1.77% to a high of 2.417%.
Such a sharp rise in yields in such a short period of time is undesirable since the world is awash with debt…as noted by Nicole Elliot on yesterday’s Finance show
Marc Ostwald, Strategist at ADMISI also noted the sharp spike is overdone on today’s Finance show. However, he also makes an important point – The rise in yields is not only due to Trump Bump and the resulting rise in Fed rate hike bets, but also due to the fact that China and Gulf nations are liquidating their treasury holdings.
Coming to technicals – Monthly chart
The yield has retraced 23.6% of the drop from 2006 high to 2016 low. The Fibo level is 2.269%.
We also see a bullish break from the falling channel.
Furthermore, the monthly 50-MA appears to have bottomed out.
To me, technicals suggest the yield has bottomed out. Agreed that the spike is overdone and technical correction is likely. However, the yield may have made a long-term bottom.
Bottom in yields is in, 3% by end of 201710-year Treasury Note yield (TNX) is going to climb towards 3% by Q4'17.
Inflation really here?TNX has been rising very rapidly. Now it's above 200-daily moving average. RSI is signaling overbought, but one must remember that it can stay overbought for some time.
Maybe investors are realizing something?
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