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Treasuries

TMF 20 year 3x Leveraged Treasuries ETFTMF completed an uptrend from 3/28 to 4/6 and then a retracement of it. It is now positioned above the 0.5 Fibonacci level also the VWAP of the anchored multisession VWAP indicator in the fair value ( and high volatility ) area also near to and importantly above the POC line of the intermediate-term volume profile. This high confluence yields strong support for the continuation of an uptrend targetting $10.00 the pivot high this past February with a stop loss of $8.92. For those looking for a high reward entree with the requistite risk appetite a call option with a strike of $9.00 or $ 9.50 expiring 5/19 or 6/16 might be what is on the menu.
AMEX:TMFLong
by AwesomeAvani
% BONDS & INTEREST RATESThere's obviously lots of discussion about interest rates and where they are headed. Today, I'm going to look at long-term interest rates based on the well-known ETF: $TLT . Long-term interest rates are useful as a guide for most people who get a home-loan or longer-dated loans and is usually less prone to manipulation (by Central Banks) than short-term rates. Bond prices move inverse to interest rates. A rise in bond price means a lower interest rate and vice versa. 📈📉 Let's have a look at the long-term chart. I'm using the weekly timeframe to remove the day-to-day noise. You can see that since the January 2020 peak, bond prices have fallen. This was when interest rates bottomed and started rising. The bear market in bonds extended to Oct 2022. Subsequently, we have seen a rally in bonds and therefore a drop in interest rates. The multi-trillion dollar question is: Was Oct 2022 the BOTTOM i.e. has interest rates peaked? My technical view is that the bearish trend in bonds is still the dominant force. So far the bounce off the bottom does not yet signal a trend reversal. For this to be the case, I need to see TLT move higher beyond 114. IF price moves beyond 114, I would be more confident in stating that at a minimum there has been a Change in Behaviour. At that price level, the size of the upward move would be the largest since the Jan 2020 top. Larger than the upward bounce that began in Mar 2021 and ended in Nov 2021. A Change of Behaviour signals that market participants are starting to have differing opinions. It is this change in opinion that sow the seeds as the first step required for a trend change. If the bond price falters prior to reaching beyond 114, it is highly likely that we have not seen the bottom and higher interest rates should be expected. Clearly the next few weeks will be crucial in that determination. I will update my thoughts as the price evolves.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by mrstockyetoro
TLT: Trade Idea Before More Fed QEThe signal I was waiting for to start buying bonds was whenever the Federal Reserve stopped or slowed raising interest rates. The Fed held another rate policy meeting this week and only raised the Federal Funds Rate by +.25% instead of the +.75% that had been the trend. We've gone from seeing a +.50% hike in Dec, to +.25% in Jan to +.25% this week after 4 prior straight +.75% hikes in mid to late 2022. Now that banks are failing and layoffs are starting to tick up, this weeks rate hike was likely the last for a bit unless inflation doesn't stay flat or go down before the next Fed rate meeting. You can search "2023 FOMC meetings" for the full schedule. My thought here is that within the next 12-18 months the Federal Reserve will lower rates and begin buying treasuries again(aka money printing), and I think the time to start front-running that trade in to bonds is now for those who like to accumulate a larger position over time. The best way for the average trader or phone app investor to get into bonds is via "TLT", the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, which tracks the 20-year treasury bond price rather than the interest rate on the 20-year bond. As rates go up, bond prices go down and vice versa. Right now I'm betting on rates having topped out(or close to it) and that bond prices are going to go back up over the next year or so as recession fears kick in and stock prices go lower. We've had a deep and long yield curve inversion to boot and those almost always precede a US recession. I have a recent post showing the yield curve inversion vs stocks vs US recessions for reference. TLT price is trading at decade lows and holding above $100 after a dip down to $90. Seeing the price of any asset hold above nice round numbers is always a good sign, psychologically traders like round numbers. The lower PPO momentum indicator is showing signs of a potential reversal in momentum from negative to short-term positive, and this is a monthly chart so it would be a significant event. A bullish crossover is what we want to see which is when the green signal line crosses above the purple base line in the lower PPO indicator. That would indicate a short-term return to bullish momentum on a monthly basis.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PrepForProfit
4
Recap of my trade for today on ZB1!Good afternoon and good evening dear traders! At the morning I shared a post where I said to sell ZB1!, it's too late but you still have made some profits if you got in early. For my clients and I it was a good day in ZB1! and NATURAL GAS, we could make some good profits on the 4% drop of the NATURAL GAS and on the 1% of the ZB1!, I didn't share the NATURAL GAS one since I already posted the ZB1! one and I can't give the trades I give privately. See you tomorrow on another forerecast! If you got any question don't hesitate to ask!
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by YassineAnalysis
SELL ZB1!Good morning dear traders! I'm sharing with you one of my trades for today as I usually do. I managed to share with you the TREASURY BONDS one, as you can see on the chart the price broke the channel for the fist time as a fake breakout, the 2nd time it did the same thing but it managed to come back down ad give us the confirmation to sell, my customers and I got in an hour ago, now since the market is on the move I shared it with you since I can't share them to pu lic at the same time I give it to my customers whom pay for signals. TP and SL set them at your own risk If you got any questions don't hesitate to ask I'll answer with pleasure
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by YassineAnalysis
Recap of my trade for todayGood afternoon and good evening traders! I'm sharing with you a recap of my trade for today, actually we caught the 1st up trend after breaking the support line with a quite high volume, then after having the highest volume of the day on the candle I put the 2nd arrow at we added another position to finish the trade on the market with 2 contracts and a respectful profit after seeing a squeeze of buyers and closed at the end of the red candle I put an arrow on. After that the price broke the support line of the channel I shared the trade with you too early to make some profit of it. For more questions don't hesitate to ask and I'll be answering with pleasure. PS: The autocorrect changed the FUTURE to FEATURE on the post I posted this morning
CBOT:ZB1!
by YassineAnalysis
Recap of my trade for todaygood afternoon and good evening traders, I'm sharing with you the recap of my trade for today on CRUDE OIL, today I posted it too early than usual since my custommers and I got in multiple markets and were already on profit at the moment we got in this one. The reason why we sold is theprice pulled back on thet resistance line which is provided by a tool I can't share to public, after we got what we call a squeeze on the trading system I follow we closed and ended the day with good profits, however yesterday was perfect, I didn't post since I got new custommer I was setting the chart with. See you tomorrow on a new signal ! In case you got any question don't hsitate to ask!
NYMEX:CL1!
by YassineAnalysis
Recap of my trade for todayGood afternoon and good evening traders, for today on CRUDE OIL it went sideways and on the other 2 markets we traded and it's okay since this is how trading works, today's not our day so we stopped at the morning after losing 1.5K and we'll recover it in the following days. I don't only share my wins, losses also must be shared so beginners know that trading isn't always winning sometimes it goes against you and also advances traders also have bad days in trading. Learn from your losses and never quit ! See you tomorrow in another signal. In case you got any quesion don't hesitate to ask!
NYMEX:CL1!
by YassineAnalysis
My Thoughts on Treasury Yields and Why You Should Care5% of on a 1-year US Government Bond Yield? I never thought that I would see the day. Many of us have grown up in a low rate world. Today, you buy a US Treasury bond, hold it for a year, and get 5%. That's more than most stocks yield in dividends, probably nearly double or triple the average. However, it's said that the S&P 500 averages 7% a year or so. Nonetheless, factor in recession fears and the trade becomes even more interesting. What are government bond yields? A government bond is a debt security issued by a government to raise money. When you buy a government bond, you're effectively lending money to the government in exchange for interest payments. The yield on a government bond is the return you'll receive on your investment, expressed as a percentage. So if a bond has a face value of $1,000 and a yield of 3%, you'll receive $30 per year in interest. Why are government bond yields rising? I can list out those reasons for you below: 1. Inflation 2. The Fed is purchasing less Treasuries 3. Economic growth is slowing, which means taxes will be less What are the major implications? Opportunity costs. I'll say it again: Opportunity costs. Everything that is bought, sold, and/or traded now must be weighed against this 5% yield. Do you want to buy Apple for the next year at its current valuation or take a risk to get 5% on a Treasury bond? You can substitute Apple for anything and everything that comes to mind from construction investments to crypto. Do I own any bonds? NO. I missed it and am only now paying attention. Will I potentially add some to my portfolio? 5%? It's possible. That's why I wrote this idea. I want to share my thoughts and add a few of these symbols to my watchlist. I look forward to reading your comments!
TVC:US10Y
by scheplick
4
Yield Curve InversionThe chart above is a yearly chart of the ratio of the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) to the 2-year Treasury yield (US02Y). The chart is meant to highlight how extreme the yield curve inversion is getting. Typically a yield curve inversion is indicative of an impending recession. Usually, the 10-year treasury should have a higher yield than the 2-year treasury since there is more risk involved when you invest in a longer-term treasury. Just recently, the 10-year treasury yield has reached a record low ratio of only about 85% of the 2-year treasury yield. In other words, investors are being compensated less for taking more risk. As the chart below shows, the rate of change (on a quarterly basis) in the 2-year Treasury yield has been parabolic. Below is the rate of change (on a quarterly basis) in the 10-year treasury which is typically more stable than the rate of change seen in shorter-term treasuries. The chart shows that the 10-year treasury yields have also been moving up at an unprecedented quarterly rate of change. Many analysts look to an inversion of the 10-year yield with the 3-month yield, which has not yet occurred. The failure of the 10-year yield to invert relative to the 3-month yield is likely due to the unprecedented rate of change in the 10-year yield, which has historically remained relatively stable. If the 10-year yield is moving up at a higher rate of change than the 3-month yield, this can delay or prevent an inversion altogether. Check out my analysis from July for a more in-depth discussion on why the failure (or delay) of the 10-year yield to invert to the 3-month yield might be signaling that we've entered into a new supercycle, in which higher yields may continue for the long term:
TVC:US10Y
by SpyMasterTrades
20
10-Year Treasury Yield Ready to Extend Advance to 2022 Highs?The 10-year Treasury yield has been rising since the end of January in the aftermath of a Bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Now, prices are approaching the December high at 3.905 after confirming a breakout above a falling trendline from October. Meanwhile, a bullish Golden Cross is set to form between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages, further offering an upside technical bias. Confirming a breakout above the December high exposes the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 4.118 towards the 2022 peak at 4.335. US10Y
TVC:US10YLong
by QM_Dubrovsky
1
Include $TLT in Your Portfolio 🪙Bonds are seriously underperforming stocks and TLT has been on a downtrend since the onset of Covid lockdowns when global governments printed massive amounts of money to prop up the equity markets. In Oct 2022, TLT broke below the 2014 low and then recovered nicely. I believe allocating like 10% in treasuries will be beneficial with the outlook of 2-4 years as we can expect the world to start to work around the sticky high interest rate environment.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by raamraj