How I Use Multi Timeframe Analysis to Capture LARGE Price SwingsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence.
TUTORIAL:
Today, I demonstrate the thought process and mechanical steps I take when trading my Multi-Timeframe strategy. We take a look at US Treasuries, which have offers a classic lesson in how to apply this approach.
As you will see, throughout the year, this approach took some losses prior to getting involved in the "real" move which we anticipated. No strategy is perfect, and I do not purport this to be perfect. It is a rules based and effective way to read price. This strategy is great for people who don't have a lot of time to spend at the charts. I would classify this more as an "investing" strategy when utilizing the 12M-2W-12H timeframe.
If you have questions about anything in this video, feel free to shoot me a message.
I hope you have all had a great week so far.
Good Luck & Good Trading.
Treasuriesbonds
TMV setting up a reversal LONGOn this 4H chart- TMV the leverage bear Treasuries ETF has been trending up
in a parallel channel. AT present it bounced from the top of the channel and is
heading down to the bottom of the channel. It is there that I will trade long
where the bottom of the channel is confluent with the mean VWAP providing
an overlap of dynamic support. Near that same level is the POC line of the
volume profile. Price needs to stay above the POC line for the probabilities to
tell me to trade long. Roughly I am looking for a trade from 145 to about 160 for
a 10% move more or less. The stop loss under the channel trend line for about 1.5
and so the ratio is about 6. Once in the area of the bottom of the channel. I will
look to the indicators and zoom into 15-30 minutes as a time frame to find the
entry. I will entertain taking a trade in a fair number of shares and potentially
buy a put option for insurance against the downside to hedge against losses.
I expect the trade to last a week or less and so averaging about 2% gain daily.
TMF Bull Treasuries Triple Leveraged LONGTMF as shown on a 15 minute chart shows TMF in consolidation at the beginning of the weeks
followed by a downtrend when the fed news of the rate hike came out. Today the general
market dropped after some federal financial data came out and a treasury auction was a dud
with little buyers confounded by Bank of Japan actions inconsistent with the path of the US Fed.
The mass index indicator has signaled a reversal as the signal rose above the reversal zone
and then dropped below the zone thus triggering. The Relative Trend Index documents
the end of the downtrend with the signal line nearly returning above zero. Overall, I think
this leveraged ETF overreacted to the federal news and the catalyst from Japan. I believe
this to be an good point to enter long using the pivot low as the stop loss. Targets are 7.20
just below the mean anchored VWAP and 7.45 just below the lower boundary of the high
volume area of the intermediate term volume profile. This offers modest potential profile
for a relatively low risk.
TLT Short term Treasuries Bullish LONGTLT as shown on a 30 minute chart shows TLT in a narrow range last week and then a pivot
down to begin this week followed by a downtrend and a small correction until then the fed
news of the rate hike came out. Today the general market dropped after some federal financial
data came out and a treasury auction was a dud bond auction with little transactions occurring
confounded by Bank of Japan actions inconsistent with the path of the US Fed.
The mass index indicator has signaled a reversal as the signal rose above the reversal zone
and then dropped below the zone thus triggering. The Relative Trend Index documents
the end of the red downtrend with the signal line nearly returning above zero. Overall, I think
TLT traders overreacted to the federal news and the catalyst from Japan. I believe
this to be a good point to enter long using the pivot low as the stop loss. Targets are 100.5
just below the mean anchored VWAP and 101.5 just below POCl line
volume area of the intermediate term volume profile. This offers modest potential profile
for a relatively low risk. However, I intend to trade this intraday as a same day expiration
(0DTE) option striking 101. I will set a set a stop-loss on the option of 15% while expecting
potentially 50-200% ROI making for an acceptable ratio.
US02Y/US10Y bonds signals end to market rally. Bear FlattenerUS02Y up ~6%
US10Y up ~0.12%
Definition of a Bear Flattener = market go down.
Is it a perfect indicator? Of course not. But the tendency is that bear flatteners mean money is coming out of the market and going into short term bonds where it can come out of the quickest if market turns around. So the short term bonds act as a kind of pump/dump for the market. We are getting bear flattener headwinds ahead of CPI print next week.
Next week maybe market flattens out, momentum dies, slow stochastic falls below 80, and price sets up to go below prior "higher lows".
Keep on alert.
All Treasury Yields - Convergence at highs = lows comingPut together a chart to illustrate what happens when government treasury yields converge at the same amount at a market peak.
They consistently roll over and tank.
When yields tank, bonds go up in value.
Looks like a good spot to pick up some TLT.
Bonds dont like the clown showThe selling in bonds continues as inflation continues on. Wings in my area are almost $10/lb, highest i have seen this in my life (only 28 tho). Most of the time I check to see if there is any short term bond buying, this time however, short term bonds are selling too. It would seem that investors are spooked, Investors really have no where to run at this point. Crypto winter is here, Stocks did great today but those gains are no longer viable with a hawkish fed, homes are skyrocketing but people are already warning of a top, businesses have a labor shortage and with inflation it's obvious investors do not see US debt as a safe haven anymore. At least for now. I will keep you all updated. Hope you all have your popcorn at the ready.
A clear sign of something massiveNot much to say here. In my honest opinion, Bonds are on watch. We could very clearly see an inversion here. Especially if the Fed raises rate or even enters QT.
Bonds Consolidate, Breakout Soon??Bonds have consolidated as we have expected. We are seeing strong support at 130'19, and appear to be forming a flag pattern bounded by 130'07, and 131'02. The Kovach OBV is trending up slightly, suggesting a small bull bias. From here it could go either way. The Fed is discussing tightening, which would be bearish for bonds, but persistent risk off sentiment due to the Omicron strain could give ZN a lift, though it appears this may be priced in by now. We will see continued support from the upper and lower bounds of the range. Volatility has consolidated quite a bit so we expect a breakout either way potentially soon.
Global equities remain strong at the end of the monthThe S&P 500 is on track to close its seventh consecutive month with gains after another record close on Wall Street. For many investors, August was a surprisingly strong month for equity markets, with the S&P 500 up more than 3% for the month and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 up as much as 4%, marking its third straight month of gains. Markets in Asia performed well, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Equity Index hitting a more than two-week high. Europe is also on track to finish the last day of the month strong. The dollar weakened again, while the key 10-year US-Treasury yield was trading at around 1.28%. The strong rally at the end of the month was triggered by supportive Fed policies and a very strong corporate earnings season. In Afghanistan, the Taliban celebrated a victory over the US and its allies after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. Oil prices continued to move sideways as traders assessed the prospect of additional OPEC+ production, while other commodities gained, particularly aluminum and nickel. Bitcoin fell to around $47,000.
The markets reacted exactly as we expected on Friday and continued their positive momentum in the following days. The momentum remains in place for now, and I expect markets to continue to advance in the third quarter as strong corporate earnings and growth rates, combined with the Fed's ongoing stimulus measures and low interest rates, continue to support. Although some sectors such as energy and financials are experiencing temporary headwinds due to slightly lower oil prices and a less steep yield curve, the equity market rally is broad-based. While the technology sector is currently performing stronger, I see cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary, industrials and real estate performing strongly in September. Traders are now waiting for Friday's key jobs data, which will shed light on the strength of the economy and influence bets on the Federal Reserve's next move on bond tapering. A strong jobs gain will boost the USD by increasing the likelihood that the Fed will take further steps toward tapering bonds. A weak outcome would likely lead to further USD losses. The best outcome for the stock market would be if Friday's NFPs were close or slightly better than expected (+750K jobs).
