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Treasury

$TVIX to hit $99.38, with trials to break $100.27In next 60 days, as $DJI continues to dramatically falls, among other market indices (e.g. oil most likely to hit below $40), thereby high-market caps (e.g., $MSFT, $AAPL, $AMZN) to settle down to new lower valuations, most likely all to hit below $600B, or even lower as it all used to hold on <$500B, thereupon $TVIX becomes a safe bet to break up its old adjusted supports and it is possible to reach to its $115 support. Please feel free to comment, Happy Holidays, and trade safe!
TLong
by aicody
5
RECESSION CLOCK STARTED An inverted yield curve means a market situation in which the yields offered, for longer maturities, are lower than the yields of the short-term portion of the curve (in this case the "short" is usually considered as the rates up to 2 years). This is a situation that is at first sight counter-intuitive. Those who have studied Finance will certainly remember the mantra for which 1 euro today is better than 1 euro tomorrow; an inverted curve, instead, says exactly the opposite: better 1 euro tomorrow. This means that investors, on average, are moving towards long-term investments, despite lower yields than short-term investments.
TVC:US05YShort
by albertus76
FVX 5 Year Treasury Yield: Longer Term Outlook for RatesFVX Longer Term Outlook for Rates Since Yellen retired in February FVX has risen to test the the junction of the upper parallel at the same point in time as it hit the fixed resistance line at 29.83. Since then it's been consolidating inside a slowly forming pennant formation with a spike down to the 25.46 line almost exactly before it pushed higher again. Though it's likely to spend some more time messing inside the pennant, eventually the upper parallel is going to give way leading a spurt higher to 37.22 and then after consolidating some more should beat 37.22 and push higher to 52.39. That's the most likely stopping point for interest rates from that point - until wage inflation pops even higher, forcing the Fed to follow long again on rates, whether the President approves or not.
FLong
by sumastardon
1
Gold to 2 year Treasury RatioThis log chart compares the Gold price in USD to the short term 2 year Treasury yield. Since gold has no yield is it possible it will continue to sell off as 'risk free' treasury yields rise? Some analysts expect the Fed to hike three more times this year and four times in 2019, bringing the terminal fed funds rate to 3.4%. Could potentially the yield curve may flatten in the coming year giving a 2 year yield of approx 3.4%, and gold drop to 1200, printing a ratio of 353 this chart? What are your thoughts?
FX:XAUUSD
by dime
TLT: Mother of all short squeezeEvery hedge funds and their wife, dog, cats, kids are short bonds. Everyone is trapped in the narrative of the FED's rate hike. The bus of short 10 year treasury is full. Its time for a train derail. In a risk-off environment, do you think the FED will ever hike rates further? Adding another level of uncertainly is the cancellation of the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore. Including the recent crash of Italian bonds, EU drama yet again (potentially 5x bigger than Greece) The only place funds can reposition themselves are the US dollar, and US debt/treasury. Uncle Sam. The VIX is currently near lows once again. ~13 It is time to counter-trade that, and reap the rewards of the short covering along 117 support line. You have only 2% to risk. Just buy August 2018 - June 2019 call/ bull spread and close your chart. No stop loss. If it doesnt get there, you lose your investments. If it does, you get back 5x~20x your investments. All conditions are perfect.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by LastBattle
8
SPY following giant descending triangleAMEX:SPY S&P 500 is following a giant descending triangle, even though on 04.18.18 it has not touched the triangle. Overall the market is bearish short term , despite being in the earnings season. In a bullish market some neutral and positive earnings report would have been interpreted as bullish . Increasing treasury yields may be partly to blame. As investors are buying more bonds for safety the yield increases and we passed the 3.0% yield today which carries a psychological importance as well (e.g 8 years ago it was 3.9%). Adding political and global uncertainties to this created a market that is much more easily spooked compared to Jan'18. See CBOE:VIX The critical resistance for the S&P 500 index is at 2580. If we break lower the chances are that mutual fund managers technical analysts are going to advice : "sell, sell, sell". NASDAQ:TLT NASDAQ:IGOV AMEX:TLH CBOE:TNX If we do break the 2580
AMEX:SPY
by Call_the_bottom
Short Squeeze for the Treasury bearsTypically I have seen that when everyone is on one side of the trade its quite easy for the market to make fools of the participants. The speculative short position on US treasuries, specifically the 10 year, is massive (and for good reason). While I remain a longer bear view on these treasuries I think we might end up seeing a short squeeze before we see 3% yields. The 10 year is showing some signs this could accelerate and hurt alot of bears who need to cover their positions.
T
by skyman9025
US 10Y T-NOTE -> COMING CLOSE TO A MAJOR TURNING POINT?Still cannot know whether the underlying asset will be turning from the 1.382 / .50 or the 1.618 / .618 but there is a strong confluence on both levels which makes me believe that one of them which prove to be a a key reversal point. Also judging by the strong correlation between 10-Y yields and the DXY which is also nearing a major reversal point we could in effect anticipate a similar behavior on both, of one confirming the other. For risk and money management purposes, always determine a max. of 2% risk on every trade. For example on a $50,000 account, this would be equivalent to 1,25 Lots with an 80 pip stop loss. Targets and closure of positions may be subject to alteration throughout the course of the trade. This is due to the ever-changing and unpredictable nature of the market. This post is set to be used and serve as an example and in an educational manner and is not to be taken as direct investment advice.
U
by Aqua_Trader
You Say Volatility...I say Harmony?!?!Well Well Well I'm back. It seems that we've had further conformation today of both the downward channel I drew as well as the declaration the 10 year Treasury Note Yields and the DJI are in a chaotic Dionysian dance, which seems volatile, in so far as you don't find the beauty in the chaos. Todays trading shows immediate correlations if you look at the minute charts, with yield lows reaching the .77-.823 initiating the DOW bulls and yield highs of .86-.847 initiating the warrior bears to come out and play: 9:32am Dow-24207 9:47am T Notes-2.86% 1:39pm - Dow-23373 T Notes-2.778% 2:25pm- Dow-24038 T Notes-2.847% 3:11pm- Dow-23747 T Notes-2.822% 3:51pm Dow-24369 T Notes-2.85% 4:00pm Dow-24190 T Notes- 2.855% Thus, you Apollonian form lovers can keep shouting volatility, while I say embrace the wine god and pour yourself a glass to see order in the chaos. Moving on, we can see the downtrend channel drawn yesterday has now been tested briefly three times, only to retrace back upwards each time, a clear indicator that its formed some sort of support for the short term movement of the market. Because the market has moved clearly in sync with yield rates, most attempt to be predictive in the short term should take into account what the yield rates on the 10 year are while looking at the candlestick movement, however I've drawn the blue lines as a potential formation of a falling wedge, as the highs are falling more steeply than the lows. If this does come to form and the bulls come out, we should recognize this does not mean the correction is complete, as the market needs to break this downtrend channel before that sentiment can bear (pun intended) any weight. My gut says because the 100 day MA has not been such a strong support, its within reason even if the falling wedge is confirmed to expect a test of the 200 day MA or even the .386 retracement point perhaps not immediately, but over the short to medium term. This expectation I feel is merited by the fact the market has not found much if any bullish legs at all when rates have gotten above 2.85-2.86% point where it currently is now. *This has been another PSA from your big friendly neophytic DOW Grizzly welcoming you to recognize before closing I am no expert and this is not financial advice..but also daring you to tell me how this is wrong!*
DJ:DJIShort
by jcalo23
10 Year Treasury rates to break resistance or one more dip firstThe 10 year appears to want to either break above the resistance or take on more small trip down to the e wave on this a,b,c,d,e triangle. If it hits the lower triangle boundary and then bounces, then probability is greater that it will then break the upper resistance. So if you are looking to lock a rate, or float watch both triangle boundaries to see what happens. If it breaks lower boundary, then rates could drop so you can float if the rate drifts down into the lower boundary as long as it does not break the upper boundary first. Not intended as investment advice. This is an opinion only. Make of it what you will after doing your own analysis first.
TVC:TNX
by HoosierHODL
1
EURUSD: IMF key levelsEURUSD has a weekly uptrend, from a 'Time at Mode' perspective, and the sentiment is considerably negative for it lately, with the French elections starting the first round tomorrow. This weekend, the IMF meeting takes place, and it might be a very significant event for the Euro. This week is packed with data and potential catalysts for all markets, with Mnuchin's speech in less than 2 hours from now, the IMF meetings today and tomorrow, and French elections, things will be interesting at the open. Then during the week, we have Trump's 'tax package' announcement after Wedneday, as well as the freedom caucus potentially approving the revised Obamacare repeal plan. What is certain, is that mainstream media, sentiment, and the regular Joe will get it all wrong, sadly. So, let's try to remain contrarian. Best of luck and have a nice weekend. Ivan Labrie. Ref: www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com "The IMFC statement reiterated pledges from October to “refrain from competitive devaluations” of currencies and to avoid targeting “our exchange rates for competitive purposes.”"
Long
by IvanLabrie
This is the end of the bearish run. Confirmed by XABCD, RSI, etcI want to first direct your attention to last year, as most traders have also seen the resemblance between the start of the bullish market and this year. This will also play (due to the blatant resemblance) into the fear of bears that have leverage futures to really drive this metal down. Technicals : Second, this is the lowest levels of RSI continuity also recorded on this instrument, displaying bold downward pressure and bulls yielding their positions. What is rock bottom? Rock bottom started forming on Friday, but I suspect it may not be completely over as of yet. Due to the propensity of market participants to favor current channels and direction as opposed to the proverbial "catching a falling knife". Bullish XABCD pattern found but not perfect with the harmonic numbers. Catalyst: The single major catalyst this week will be the FOMC meetings. More on the Catalyst and trade methodology: The Fed had recently warned markets that there is a rate coming, the market expects it, and if you look at what the market believes, the likelihood seems to be around 75+%. That type of certainty is what prompted to treasuries on the long end of the curve(i.e. 10Y) selling off so that yields go higher. For those of you who are not as familiar with fixed income - I invite you to learn more. Another thing to note is that there are 3 reasons why this was bad for Gold 1) Higher rates mean that holding Gold is more expensive since the discount rate will be higher. Hence, think of your basic PV = FV/(1+i)^t. So the tradeoff in holding gold is the yield you would otherwise receive if you put your money in bonds. 2) The dollar is also higher with the promise of a rate hike & more importantly the idea that Trump will be good for the US economy. 3) Not surprisingly given the points 1) 2). Valuations also went up on stocks - specifically US stocks. And this is widely documented if you look at capital flows to equities and treasuries vs. Gold - a negative correlation with the latter. Trade: So here is what I am doing. 1) expecting that gold is going higher by Feb. and this is around the bottom. Next support will be 1150 and 44. 2) The 75%+ certainty that it will happen is data that looks back to the last 2 weeks. But the buying has continued so we can assume that the certainty of the hike is actually higher. 3) I will not go into too much depth on the math but the market is expecting 25bps this week. And 3 other hikes next year. So if the fed is even hinting that they will be dovish or if they seem complacent you will see a flight out of the trades that were so profitable in the past few weeks and gold will rise. If on the other hand they confirm market expectations - you are fine because it is largely priced in. Hypothesis: In the days before the meeting, some funds will also be careful about this "almost certain" hike and they will take up positions in Gold and other hedge assets and instruments because they don't want to get caught with their pants down, which will give bulls a relief rally. PS. Also check out: Shiller index PE on google. Only trade risk capital whether you are long or short. And remember, bull or bear, piranhas will eat you ;) Good luck and have fun! The Human Piranha.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by HumanPiranha